Machine Learning
SoK: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Current Status of Neural Tangent Generalization Attacks with Research Directions
Thushari Hapuarachchi and Kaiqi Xiong
There is recently a serious issue that Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) training uses more and more unauthorized data. A clean-label generalization attack, one type of data poisoning attacks, has been suggested to address this issue. The Neural Tangent Generalization Attack (NTGA) is considered as the first well-known clean-label generalization attack under the black-box settings, which provided an unprecedented step in data protection approaches. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis on the state-of-the-art of NTGA; to the best of our knowledge, this is the first thorough analysis regarding NTGA. First, we provide a classification of attacks against DNNs with their explanations and relations to NTGA. Then, this paper presents a taxonomy of black-box attacks and demonstrate that the NTGA is the first clean-label generalization attack under the black-box setting. We further analyze the existing studies of NTGA and give a comprehensive comparisons of their findings by conducting our own experiments to verify these findings. Moreover, our extensive experiments show that NTGA is vulnerable to
adversarial training and image transformations, and applying linear separability to NTGA-generated images makes them more susceptible to such vulnerablities. We present the pros and cons of NTGA and suggest ways to improve NTGA robustness based on our analysis. Our further experiments indicate that several recently proposed clean-label generalization attacks outperform NTGA on data protection. Finally, we unveil the necessity of further research with future research insights on NTGA.
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Machine Learning
From Heuristics to Analytics: Forecasting Effort and Progress in Online Learning
Eric S. Qiu, Danielle R. Thomas, Boyuan Guo et al. (+2 more)
Sustained effort is essential for realizing the benefits of intelligent tutoring systems (ITS), yet many learners disengage or underuse available practice time. We introduce engagement
forecasting as a supervised prediction task based on ITS logs, targeting two outcomes central to effort and learning progress: minutes practiced per week and new skills mastered per week. Using interaction log data from 425 middle-school students over a school year, we
benchmark fifteen predictors including regressions, decision trees, and neural networks. We show that these feature-based models reduce mean absolute error (MAE) by 22-33% relative to heuristic baselines, including fixed-percentile rules adapted from prior work in other behavioral domains. We find that percentile heuristics systematically overpredict, whereas feature-based models better track student practice trajectories across weeks. To support explainability, we analyze feature importance and ablations, revealing target-specific patterns: effort
forecasting is driven mainly by recent activity features, while progress
forecasting depends more on learner-state and content difficulty signals. Finally, in a semi-structured user interview case study with eight college tutors, we examine how tutors reasoned about system-generated predictive features when setting goals with students. We find that tutors reasoned differently about effort versus progress goals in ways that mirror our pattern analysis. Together, these results establish a reproducible
benchmark for
forecasting weekly effort and learning progress in ITS. By making patterns of sustained effort and progress visible at a weekly timescale, engagement
forecasting offers a foundation for supporting tutor-learner goal setting and timely instructional decisions.
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All authors Eric S. Qiu, Danielle R. Thomas, Boyuan Guo, Vincent Aleven, Conrad Borchers
Machine Learning
Identifying the nonlinear string dynamics with port-Hamiltonian neural networks
Maximino Linares, Guillaume Doras and Thomas Hélie
Hybrid machine learning combines physical knowledge with data-driven models to enhance interpretability and performance. In this context, Port-
Hamiltonian Systems (PHS), which generalize
Hamiltonian mechanics to describe open, non-autonomous dynamical systems, have been successfully integrated with neural networks under the name Port-
Hamiltonian Neural Networks (PHNNs). While the ability of PHNNs to identify
Hamiltonian ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems has already been demonstrated, their application to learning
Hamiltonian partial differential equation (PDE) systems remains largely unexplored. This limitation restricts their use in musical acoustics, where instruments are typically modeled as distributed parameter systems governed by PDEs. In this work, we demonstrate how to learn the nonlinear string dynamics from data in a physically-consistent framework through a PHNN extension to PDEs. By constructing structured neural network architectures based on PHS, we can recover both the
Hamiltonian governing the string and the dissipation affecting it. This approach outperforms baseline, non-physics-informed methods in terms of both accuracy and interpretability. Numerical experiments using synthetic data demonstrate the ability of the proposed PHNN model to identify and emulate the nonlinear dynamics of the system.
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Machine Learning
ToolMol: Evolutionary Agentic Framework for Multi-objective Drug Discovery
Andrew Y. Zhou, Sharvaree Vadgama, Sumanth Varambally et al. (+3 more)
Advances in large
language models (LLMs) have recently opened new and promising avenues for small-molecule drug discovery. Yet existing LLM-based approaches for molecular generation often suffer from high rates of invalid and low-quality ligand candidates, a result of the syntactic limitations of current models with regard to molecular strings. In this paper, we introduce $\texttt{ToolMol}$, an evolutionary agentic framework for de novo drug design. $\texttt{ToolMol}$ combines a multi-objective genetic
algorithm with an agentic LLM operator that iteratively updates the ligand population. We build a comprehensive toolbox of RDKit-backed functions that allows our agentic operator to consisently make precise ligand modifications. $\texttt{ToolMol}$ achieves state-of-the-art performance on multi-objective property optimization tasks, discovering drug-like and synthesizable ligands that have $>10\%$ stronger predicted binding affinity compared to existing methods, evaluated on three
protein targets. $\texttt{ToolMol}$ ligands additionally achieve state-of-the-art results in gold-standard Absolute Binding Free Energy scores, gaining over existing methods by over $35\%$. By studying chain-of-thought
reasoning traces, we observe that tool-calling enables the model to more faithfully execute its planned modifications, efficiently exploiting the strong chemical prior knowledge in LLMs.
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All authors Andrew Y. Zhou, Sharvaree Vadgama, Sumanth Varambally, Peter Eckmann, Michael K. Gilson, Rose Yu
Machine Learning
Graph-Based Financial Fraud Detection with Calibrated Risk Scoring and Structural Regularization
Yunfei Nie, Jiawei Wang, Ruobing Yan et al. (+3 more)
Financial transaction fraud prevention faces challenges such as complex relationship structures, concealed behavioral patterns, and dynamically changing data distribution. Discrimination models relying solely on independent sample features are insufficient to fully characterize the risks of group collaboration and chain transfers within transaction networks. This paper proposes a graph neural network representation learning and risk discrimination framework for financial transaction fraud prevention. It integrates transaction records and identity information into node attributes and constructs a transaction graph based on shared attributes and interaction consistency to explicitly model inter-transaction relationships. In model design, a multi-layer message passing mechanism is employed to aggregate neighborhood information, learn node
embedding representations containing structural context semantics, and output transaction-level fraud probability and risk scores through a lightweight risk discrimination head. A weighted supervision objective is introduced to mitigate training bias caused by class imbalance, and structural consistency regularization constraints are combined to suppress the impact of noisy edges on representation drift, thereby improving the stability and usability of risk characterization. Experiments are conducted on a publicly available financial transaction
dataset, comparing various methods in the same direction and comprehensively evaluating them under a unified evaluation protocol. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other methods in risk ranking and probability calibration quality, validating the effectiveness of graph structure modeling and representation learning collaboration in financial transaction fraud prevention.
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All authors Yunfei Nie, Jiawei Wang, Ruobing Yan, Yuhan Wang, Zouxiaowei Ma, Yilun Wu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ME
When to Trust Confidence Thresholding: Calibration Diagnostics for Pseudo-Labelled Regression
Marcell T. Kurbucz
Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset. A standard practice is to threshold the calibrated score at a confidence cutoff and treat the hard label as the truth. Building on a recent identification result for the underlying moment equation, we develop a calibration-aware diagnostic apparatus for pseudo-labelling pipelines. We derive a closed-form expression for the attenuation bias that confidence thresholding induces in the downstream regression coefficient, and show that the bias can be predicted, before any inference is run, from the residual score variance $V^{*}=\mathbb{E}[\operatorname{Var}(p\mid X)]$ on the unlabelled set after partialling out the downstream controls $X$. We further obtain a sharp sensitivity bound under bounded calibration drift, and identify the boundary $V^{*}=0$, which holds iff $p$ is a deterministic function of $X$; this motivates a structural separation between classifier features $W$ and downstream controls $X\subsetneq W$. Five controlled simulations and a UCI Adult illustration trace the predictions. The contribution is operational: a $(V^{*}, \kappa)$ decision rule that practitioners can compute from any classifier output to decide whether confidence thresholding is safe.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO
Adaptive Smooth Tchebycheff Attention for Multi-Objective Policy Optimization
Alejandro Murillo-Gonzalez, Mahmoud Ali and Lantao Liu
Multi-objective reinforcement learning in robotic domains requires balancing complex, non-convex trade-offs between conflicting objectives. While linear scalarization methods provide stability, they are theoretically incapable of recovering solutions within non-convex regions of the Pareto front. Conversely, static non-linear scalarizations (e.g., Tchebycheff) can theoretically access these regions but often suffer from severe gradient variance and optimization instability in deep RL. In this work, we propose an Adaptive Smooth Tchebycheff framework that resolves this tension by dynamically modulating the
curvature of the optimization landscape. We introduce a novel conflict-driven controller that regulates the optimization smoothness based on real-time gradient interference. This allows the
agent to anneal toward precise, non-convex scalarization when objectives align, while elastically reverting to stable, smooth approximations when destructive gradient conflicts emerge. We validate our approach on a challenging robotic stealth visual search task – a proxy for monitoring of protected/fragile ecosystems – where an
agent must balance search, exposure/interference minimization and exploration speed. Extensive ablations confirm that our conflict-aware adaptation enables the robust discovery of Pareto-optimal policies in non-convex regions inaccessible to linear baselines and unstable for static non-linear methods. Website: https://alejandromllo.github.io/research/pasta/
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Machine Learning
WriteSAE: Sparse Autoencoders for Recurrent State
Jack Young
We introduce WriteSAE, a sparse autoencoder for the
matrix updates written into recurrent
language-model state. In Gated DeltaNet, Mamba-2, and RWKV-7, each
token writes a
matrix-shaped update to a recurrent cache; a residual-stream SAE has vector-shaped atoms and cannot replace that update directly. WriteSAE learns rank-1
matrix atoms with the same shape as the model's own write. This lets us test a direct replacement: at positions where the SAE activates an atom, we remove the model's write, insert the atom scaled by its SAE activation, and continue the forward pass. The atom gives a closer final
token distribution than deleting the write on 92.4% of evaluated positions; averaged per atom, the rate is 89.8%. For Gated DeltaNet, a formula using the forget gate, read query, and output
embedding predicts the resulting logit change with $R^2 = 0.98$. The same replacement test transfers to Mamba-2-370M at 88.1%. In generation, the formula chooses a write direction; writing it into three consecutive cache positions at $3\times$ the norm of the model's write makes
tokens initially ranked 100–1000 by the unmodified model appear in 100% of continuations, up from 33.3%. To our knowledge this is the first cache-level steering intervention reported in a state-space or hybrid recurrent layer.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks
Zhizhen Zhang, Hyemin Gu, Benjamin J. Zhang et al. (+6 more)
Open time-series
forecasting (TSF)
benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular
topology, demand, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand is served from inventory or recorded as backlog and triggers replenishment throughout the network. The state tracks inventory, outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, yielding Markovian dynamics on a tractable state space. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, while three conservation laws provide verification tools for simulator extensions. We release
datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$), with a 33-rollout scenario library at $C=50$. These
datasets exhibit dynamics largely absent from fixed TSF
benchmarks, including variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of three foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM) against three in-domain-trained baselines (ARIMA, ETS, PatchTST) spans four targets: demand, backlog, fill rate, and edge utilization. Comparison with ETTh1, Electricity, and Weather shows that ISOMORPH introduces
forecasting regimes that differ from standard real-world TSF
benchmarks, positioning it as a complementary, regenerable logistics-domain
benchmark. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands across scenario configurations, providing forward UQ from parameter uncertainty and demonstrating foundation models as fast surrogates for digital-twin-based UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH. Interactive demo: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HyeminGu/ISOMORPH-demo.
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All authors Zhizhen Zhang, Hyemin Gu, Benjamin J. Zhang, Daniel Elenius, Michael Tyrrell, Theo J. Bourdais, Houman Owhadi, Markos A. Katsoulakis, Tuhin Sahai
Machine Learning
Inference-Time Machine Unlearning via Gated Activation Redirection
Vinícius Conte Turani, Otávio Parraga, João Vitor Boer Abitante et al. (+7 more)
Large
Language Models (LLMs) memorize vast amounts of training data, raising concerns regarding
privacy, copyright infringement, and safety. Machine unlearning seeks to remove the influence of a targeted forget set while preserving model performance, ideally approximating a model retrained from scratch without it. Once an LLM is in use, every new request to make it forget specific content demands updating its weights. However, unlearning through parameter updates is expensive, hard to audit, and can be undone by quantization. We show that unlearning can be enforced entirely at inference time, without training, gradients, or weight changes. We introduce Inference-Time Unlearning via Gated Activation Redirection (GUARD-IT), a training- and gradient-free method that unlearns via input-dependent activation steering at inference time. GUARD-IT stores the content to be forgotten as a small library of activation directions, and during inference, it routes each query through a similarity gate that activates only for relevant directions and applies them as a norm-preserving rotation of the residual stream, while unrelated queries pass through the unmodified model. The same design carries across three model families and nine checkpoints from 0.8B to 8B parameters, and new forget requests are absorbed by one offline pass of forward passes. On TOFU, against 16 gradient-based and inference-time baselines, and on MUSE and WMDP, GUARD-IT forgets without breaking the model, and on TOFU it is the only method that suppresses memorization in every Llama configuration without collapsing: it keeps utility and fluent generation in every configuration, moves the model's output distribution closest to a model that never saw the forgotten data on the forget01 split, survives 4- and 8-bit quantization and ten sequential forget requests, and holds under jailbreak attacks.
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All authors Vinícius Conte Turani, Otávio Parraga, João Vitor Boer Abitante, Kristen K. Arguello, Joana Pasquali, Ramiro N. Barros, Flavio du Pin Calmon, Christian Mattjie, Rodrigo C. Barros, Lucas S. Kupssinskü
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-fin.MF
Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage
Fusheng Luo and H'elyette Geman
This paper introduces a physics-informed generative framework that resolves the fundamental conflict between the statistical flexibility of deep learning and the rigorous theoretical constraints of fixed-income modeling. We demonstrate that standard generative models and unconstrained statistical extrapolations suffer from "
manifold collapse" and severe arbitrage violations when
forecasting term structures across diverse macroeconomic regimes. To overcome this, we propose a two-stage architecture. First, a Student-t Conditional Variational Autoencoder with Dynamic Level Injection (CVAEsT+LS) extracts a robust, heavy-tailed term structure
manifold, effectively decoupling macroeconomic shape dynamics from absolute base rates. Second, the latent dynamic
evolution is governed by a continuous-time Neural
Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) strictly penalized by a No-Arbitrage Partial Differential Equation (PDE). Empirical results across multiple sovereign currencies (USD, GBP, JPY) confirm that our synergistic approach drastically reduces out-of-sample
forecasting errors – achieving an exceptional 6.58 bps Mean Tenor RMSE – and successfully overcomes the massive parallel drift and zero-lower-bound violations exhibited by the classical HJM model in extreme environments. Furthermore, through phase space vector field analysis, we demonstrate the model's superior capability in unsupervised macroeconomic regime detection and high-quality continuous-time scenario generation. Ultimately, this research provides a highly scalable, mathematically sound evolutionary engine for term structure modeling.
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Machine Learning
Center-Manifold Reduction of Learning at Bifurcations: Interference and Rich Learning in Recurrent Neural Networks
James Hazelden and Eric Shea-Brown
Rich learning in recurrent neural networks often proceeds through sudden transitions in latent dynamics, but there is little theory predicting how gradient descent behaves during these events. We study the local learning geometry near codimension-one bifurcations through the global empirical Neural Tangent Kernel (GeNTK). Under local center-
manifold conditions, and when bifurcation-related sensitivity dominates bounded residual terms, we show that the global parameter-to-state Jacobian \(D_\theta h\) is approximated by a low-rank normal-form operator. The induced GeNTK and Fisher information
matrix therefore become strongly amplified and anisotropic, concentrating toward a rank-one channel for the four scalar codimension-one bifurcations and a rank-two real channel for a Neimark–Sacker bifurcation. Controlled high-dimensional RNN experiments validate this operator reduction. In learned RNNs, the same low-rank concentration coincides with abrupt loss changes and subtask interference, while a local projection predicts the sign of these effects near isolated events. Finally, in an input-driven 15-task LeakyRNN, GeNTK amplification aligns with continuation-detected changes in the MemoryPro dynamics. These results suggest a tractable operator-level description of learning near dynamical transitions, together with scalable diagnostics for amplified low-dimensional learning geometry.
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Machine Learning
Multi-Quantile Regression for Extreme Precipitation Downscaling
Hamed Najafi, Gareth Lagerwall, Jayantha Obeysekera et al. (+1 more)
Deep super-resolution networks for precipitation downscaling achieve strong bulk skill yet systematically under-predict the heavy-tail events that drive flood risk. We demonstrate that the primary obstacle is the loss function, not the data: under intensity-weighted MAE, real and synthetic labels at the same input are simply averaged, meaning data augmentation shifts the predicted mean rather than the conditional distribution. We resolve this with Q-SRDRN, a multi-
quantile super-resolution network trained with pinball loss at tau in 0.50, 0.95, 0.99, 0.999. Two CNN-specific design choices make this practical: IncrementBound enforces monotonicity while preserving each
quantile channel's gradient identity, and separate per-
quantile output heads provide independent filter banks for bulk and tail detection. Under this design, data augmentation via cVAE becomes complementary: the median head absorbs synthetic patterns without contaminating upper
quantiles. Empirically, on Florida (convective/tropical-cyclone dominated), the un-augmented Q-SRDRN P999 head detects 1,598 of 2,111 events at 200 mm/day versus 88 for the deterministic baseline–an 18x detection-rate gain (4.2% to 75.7%)–with 63% lower KL divergence and 3.9% lower RMSE. Adding cVAE-generated samples lifts the P50 channel from 14 to 1,038 hits at 200 mm/day. On California (atmospheric-river dominated), the architecture reaches near-perfect detection (P999 SEDI >= 0.996 through 300 mm/day). On Texas, the baseline catches only 2 of 10,720 events at 200 mm/day while the P999 head catches 8,776 (81.9%). While the cVAE does not transfer across regions, multi-
quantile regression captures extremes wherever the large-scale signal is strong, while augmentation rescues the median where it is not.
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All authors Hamed Najafi, Gareth Lagerwall, Jayantha Obeysekera, Jason Liu
Machine Learning
Predicting Channel Closures in the Lightning Network with Machine Learning
Simone Antonelli, Vincent Davis, Harrison Rush et al. (+4 more)
The Lightning Network (LN) is a second-layer protocol for Bitcoin designed to enable fast and cost-efficient off-chain transactions. Channels in the LN can be closed either by mutual agreement or unilaterally through a forced closure, which locks the involved capital for an extended period and degrades network reliability. In this paper, we study the problem of predicting channel closure types from publicly available gossip data, framing it as a temporal link classification task over the evolving channel graph. We construct a
dataset spanning over two years of LN activity and
benchmark a range of machine learning approaches, from MLPs to temporal graph neural networks and spectral encodings. Our experiments reveal that the dominant predictive signals are temporal and behavioural, namely how recently each endpoint was active and the per-node history of past closures, while the surrounding network
topology provides no additional benefit. We find that a simple MLP operating on edge-level features, node-level event counts, and temporal patterns outperforms all graph-based approaches, and discuss how the inherent
privacy of the LN, where critical information such as channel balances and payment flows remains hidden, fundamentally limits the predictability of closures from gossip data alone. We publicly release the
dataset and code at https://github.com/AmbossTech/ln-channel-closure-prediction.
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All authors Simone Antonelli, Vincent Davis, Harrison Rush, Anthony Potdevin, Jesse Shrader, Vikash Singh, Emanuele Rossi
Machine Learning
Constraint-Aware Flow Matching: Decision Aligned End-to-End Training for Constrained Sampling
Jacob K. Christopher, James E. Warner and Ferdinando Fioretto
Deep generative models provide state-of-the-art performance across a wide array of applications, with recent studies showing increasing applicability for science and engineering. Despite a growing corpus of literature focused on the integration of physics-based constraints into the generation process, existing approaches fail to enforce strict constraint satisfaction while maintaining sample quality. In particular, training-free constrained sampling methods, while providing per-sample feasibility guarantees, introduce a fundamental mismatch between the training objective and the constrained sampling procedure, often leading to performance degradation. Identifying this training-sampling misalignment as a central limitation of current constrained generative modeling approaches, this paper proposes Constraint-Aware Flow Matching, a novel end-to-end framework that explicitly incorporates constraint projections into the training objective. By aligning the model's learned dynamics with the constrained sampling process, the proposed method mitigates distributional shift induced by projection-based corrections, enabling high-quality constrained generation. The proposed approach is evaluated on three challenging real-world
benchmarks, illustrating the generality and efficacy of the method.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.IV
Optimization in Sparse 2D to Dense 3D Weakly Supervised Learning: Application to Multi-Label Segmentation of Large ex vivo MRI Data
Paul Hoareau, Kuan Yi Wang, Brandon Bujak et al. (+6 more)
INTRODUCTION | Fully supervised 3D
segmentation of high-resolution ex vivo MRI is limited by the prohibitive cost of volumetric annotation, forcing reliance on sparse 2D slices. Weakly supervised Sparse-to-Dense frameworks bridge this gap, but guidelines remain ambiguous regarding human-centric visual enhancements and transferring optimization strategies across dimensions. We analyze divergent regularization needs for multi-class
segmentation of high-resolution ex vivo spinal cord MRI. METHODS | We used 9.4T MRI of multiple sclerosis spinal cords (>104,000 slices) with sparse annotations (428 slices). A 2D Teacher trained on sparse slices generated dense pseudo-labels to train a 3D Student. We systematically evaluated the impact of human-centric preprocessing, spatial augmentation, and soft-label regularization on both architectures. RESULTS | We identified a critical divergence in training dynamics. The 2D Teacher required strong spatial augmentation and soft-labeling to overcome data scarcity, improving White Matter Lesion Dice scores by >11 points. However, propagating these techniques to the 3D Student degraded its performance. Furthermore, human-centric preprocessing (e.g., CLAHE) disrupted global statistical cues, dropping Gray Matter Lesion Dice scores by ~25 points. DISCUSSION | Our study highlights a perception divergence (human-centric contrast enhancement harms machine models) and a regularization conflict across dimensions. 3D architectures trained on dense pseudo-labels exhibit fundamentally different optimization landscapes than 2D counterparts and require distinct, conservative regularization. Code and models: https://github.com/ivadomed/model_seg_sc-gm-lesion_human_ms_exvivo_t2
star.
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All authors Paul Hoareau, Kuan Yi Wang, Brandon Bujak, Roy Sun, Govind Nair, Irene Cortese, Charidimos Tsagkas, Daniel Reich, Julien Cohen-Adad
Machine Learning
Low-Rank Adapters Initialization via Gradient Surgery for Continual Learning
Joana Pasquali, Ramiro N. Barros, Arthur S. Bianchessi et al. (+7 more)
LoRA is widely adopted for continual fine-tuning of Large
Language Models due to its parameter efficiency, modularity across tasks, and compatibility with replay strategies. However, LoRA-based continual learning remains vulnerable to catastrophic forgetting, whose severity depends on how successive task gradients interact: when consecutive task gradients conflict, standard adapter initializations channel updates into subspaces that overwrite previously learned directions. We propose SLICE, a gradient-surgery-based initialization for LoRA adapters in continual learning. SLICE accumulates gradients from both the current task and a replay buffer of prior tasks, reconciles them through a projection operator, and decomposes the result via truncated SVD to initialize the adapter weights. We evaluate SLICE on the TRACE
benchmark and sequences of Super-NI tasks, including a set of
adversarial Super-NI sequences that we construct by mining task pairs with maximally opposing gradients. Compared to vanilla LoRA, LoRA-GA, and LoRAM, SLICE consistently achieves a better stability-plasticity trade-off, improving Average Performance, Final Performance and Forgetting metrics while preserving General Performance and In Context Performance across both standard and
adversarial continual learning sequences.
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All authors Joana Pasquali, Ramiro N. Barros, Arthur S. Bianchessi, Vinícius Conte Turani, João Vitor Boer Abitante, Rafaela Cappelari Ravazio, Christian Mattjie, Otávio Parraga, Lucas S. Kupssinskü, Rodrigo C. Barros
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Simulating Students or Sycophantic Problem Solving? On Misconception Faithfulness of LLM Simulators
Heejin Do, Shashank Sonkar and Mrinmaya Sachan
Large
language models (LLMs) can fluently generate student-like responses, making them attractive as simulated students for training and evaluating AI tutors and human educators. Yet such simulators are typically evaluated by output similarity to real students, not by whether they behave like students with coherent misconceptions during interaction. We introduce a controlled framework for evaluating misconception faithfulness, whether a simulator maintains a misconception-driven belief state and updates selectively when feedback addresses the underlying misconception. Central to our framework is a misconception-contrastive feedback protocol that compares targeted feedback against two controls: misaligned feedback (targeting a different but plausible misconception) and generic feedback (only identifying answer is wrong). We propose Selective Flip Score (SFS), which quantifies how much more often a simulator flips its answer under targeted feedback than under contrastive controls. Across seven LLMs (4B-120B), multiple
datasets, and prompting strategies, simulators exhibit near-zero SFS, correcting their answers at similarly high rates regardless of feedback relevance. Further analyses reveal a sycophantic failure mode: models behave less like students with misconceptions but more like problem-solvers who treat any corrective signal as a cue to abandon the simulated belief and re-solve from internal knowledge. To address this, we develop a post-training pipeline spanning supervised fine-tuning (SFT), preference optimization, and reinforcement learning (RL) with an SFS-aligned reward; SFT yields notable gains up to +0.56, and SFS-aligned RL provides more consistent improvements than preference optimization. Our results establish misconception faithfulness as a challenging yet trainable property, motivating a shift from static output matching toward interactive, belief-aware student modeling.
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Machine Learning
Learning with Rare Success but Rich Feedback via Reflection-Enhanced Self-Distillation
Yuwei Zhang, Sha Li, Changlong Yu et al. (+9 more)
Enabling Large
Language Models (LLMs) to continuously improve from environmental interactions is a central challenge in post-training. While on-policy self-
distillation offers a promising paradigm, existing methods predominantly treat environmental feedback as a passive conditioning signal. Consequently, they heavily rely on successful demonstrations and struggle to learn in rare-success regimes. To bridge this gap, we introduce Reflection-Enhanced Self-
Distillation (RESD), a framework that transforms raw failure feedback into an active source of corrective supervision. Instead of passively appending feedback, RESD interprets failed trajectories by generating retrospective reflections to diagnose local errors, and curates a persistent global playbook to preserve reusable lessons across training steps. The enriched context enables the self-teacher to provide actionable
token-level supervision even in the absence of successful rollouts. Empirical evaluations on multiple continual learning tasks demonstrate that RESD substantially outperforms standard self-
distillation baselines. Furthermore, RESD achieves significantly faster early-stage improvement than GRPO with $8\times$ samples using only a single rollout per
prompt, highlighting its superior interaction efficiency.
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All authors Yuwei Zhang, Sha Li, Changlong Yu, Qin Lu, Shuowei Jin, Chengyu Dong, Haoran Liu, Ilgee Hong, Xintong Li, Zhenyu Shi, Bing Yin, Jingbo Shang
Machine Learning
ConRetroBert: EMA Stabilized Dual Encoders for Template-Based Single-Step Retrosynthesis
Mohammad Jahid Ibna Basher, Ali Khodabandeh Yalabadi, Ivan Garibay et al. (+1 more)
Template based single step retrosynthesis predicts reactants by selecting and applying an explicit reaction template, making each prediction traceable to a chemical transformation rule. This is useful for synthesis planning, but template based methods are often viewed as less competitive than template free models because template prediction is commonly formulated as global classification over a long tailed rule library. We argue that this weakness is not inherent to templates, but to the learning formulation. We present ConRetroBert, a dual encoder framework that reframes template based retrosynthesis as dense product template
retrieval followed by candidate set listwise ranking. Stage 1 uses contrastive pretraining to learn a shared
embedding space between products and reaction templates. Stage 2 refines template ranking over mined hard negative candidate sets with a multi positive listwise objective. To enable template side adaptation without destabilizing hard negative mining, ConRetroBert uses a slow moving exponential moving average template encoder for
retrieval bank construction while updating the live template encoder through the ranking loss. On the local USPTO-50k
benchmark, Stage 2 candidate set ranking improves top-1 reaction accuracy from 50.5% to 61.3%, while EMA stabilized template adaptation further improves it to 62.4%. Fine tuning from a leakage controlled USPTO-Full checkpoint reaches 75.4% top-1 accuracy on USPTO-50k. We also show that
retrieval based template prediction is strong in the long tail of rare templates, and that many correct reactant predictions arise from alternative explicit templates rather than only the recorded positive label. Code and data are available at https://github.com/JahidBasher/ConRetroBert.
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All authors Mohammad Jahid Ibna Basher, Ali Khodabandeh Yalabadi, Ivan Garibay, Ozlem Ozmen Garibay
Machine Learning
From Generalist to Specialist Representation
Yujia Zheng, Fan Feng, Yuke Li et al. (+3 more)
Given a generalist model, learning a task-relevant specialist representation is fundamental for downstream applications. Identifiability, the asymptotic guarantee of recovering the ground-truth representation, is critical because it sets the ultimate limit of any model, even with infinite data and computation. We study this problem in a completely nonparametric setting, without relying on interventions, parametric forms, or structural constraints. We first prove that the structure between time steps and tasks is identifiable in a fully unsupervised manner, even when sequences lack strict temporal dependence and may exhibit disconnections, and task assignments can follow arbitrarily complex and interleaving structures. We then prove that, within each time step, the task-relevant latent representation can be disentangled from the irrelevant part under a simple sparsity regularization, without any additional information or parametric constraints. Together, these results establish a hierarchical foundation: task structure is identifiable across time steps, and task-relevant latent representations are identifiable within each step. To our knowledge, each result provides a first general nonparametric identifiability guarantee, and together they mark a step toward provably moving from generalist to specialist models.
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All authors Yujia Zheng, Fan Feng, Yuke Li, Shaoan Xie, Kevin Murphy, Kun Zhang
Machine Learning
Before the Last Token: Diagnosing Final-Token Safety Probe Failures
Shravan Doda
Final-
token safety probes monitor a single hidden state after
prompt prefill, but jailbreak
prompts can contain probe-visible unsafe evidence distributed across earlier user-
token representations that is missed by this readout. We study this prefill-time failure mode using SafeSwitch-style probes trained only on clean harmful and benign
prompts across three instruction-tuned LLMs. The probes achieve high recall on clean harmful
prompts, but miss many jailbreaks and can produce false positives on safety-adjacent benign
prompts. Subspace analyses suggest that missed jailbreaks differ from clean benign
prompts along directions that are poorly captured by the probe's representational subspace, and increasing probe bottleneck width does not reliably resolve this mismatch.
Token-level prefill analyses reveal that probe-visible unsafe evidence often appears earlier in the sequence but is not exposed at the final-
token readout, while naive max-pooling over
token positions overfires on safe
prompts. A simple PCA-HMM trajectory model, trained only on the same clean split, recovers many final-
token misses from user-content prefill trajectories without the catastrophic false-positive behavior of naive
token pooling, motivating trajectory-aware hidden-state analyses as diagnostic complements to final-
token probes
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO
A Five-Layer MLOps Architecture for Connected Automated Driving
Bastian Lampe and Lutz Eckstein
The continual assurance of safety and performance of automated driving systems (ADSs) poses significant challenges. ADSs operate in complex, dynamic, open-world environments allowing a wide range of scenarios, including ones that are rare or not foreseen during initial development. While the incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technology allows ADSs to learn from data gathered during operation and thus enables them to adapt over time, these approaches come with their own challenges. A key advantage of ADSs compared to human drivers is their greater ability to gather data collectively across a fleet of vehicles, or even across multiple fleets operated by different entities, and to learn from this data collectively. Vehicles can share and combine their data to identify additional learning opportunities otherwise missed by individual vehicles. This creates new opportunities to tackle the challenges of continual assurance of safety and performance, but requires the implementation of architectures that leverage the collective learning potential. Based on established MLOps principles and existing work in the field of connected automated driving, this paper presents a five-layer architecture for collective learning-enabled MLOps processes for ADSs. The goal of this architecture is to provide a conceptual blueprint for the design and implementation of MLOps processes by fleet operators and other relevant stakeholders. The paper describes the main responsibilities of each layer, their interactions, and how multi-level self-assessments enabled by the architecture can support the detection and reduction of edge cases including black swan events.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
Multi-Agent Debate for Belief Optimization in Defeasible Domains
Tommaso Giovannelli and Griffin D. Kent
Multi-
agent debate has emerged as a promising approach for improving LLM
reasoning on ground-truth tasks, yet current methodologies face certain structural limitations: debate tends to induce a martingale over belief trajectories, majority voting accounts for most observed gains, and LLMs exhibit confidence escalation rather than calibration across rounds. We argue that the genuine value of debate, and dialectic systems as a whole, lies not in ground-truth tasks but in defeasible domains, where every position can in principle be defeated by better
reasoning. We present the Council of Hierarchical Agentic
Language (CHAL), a multi-
agent dialectic framework that treats defeasible argumentation as an engine for belief optimization. Each
agent maintains a CHAL Belief Schema (CBS), a graph-structured belief representation with a
Bayesian-inspired architecture, that facilitates belief revision through a gradient-informed dynamic mechanism by leveraging the strength of the belief's thesis as a differentiable objective. Meta-cognitive value systems spanning epistemology, logic, and ethics are elevated to configurable hyperparameters governing
agent reasoning and adjudication outcomes. We provide a series of ablation experiments that demonstrate systematic and interpretable effects: the adjudicator's value system determines the debate's overall trajectories in latent belief space, council diversity refines beliefs for all participants, and the framework generalizes across broad fields. CHAL is, to our knowledge, the first framework to treat multi-
agent debate as structured belief optimization over defeasible domains. Further, the auditable belief artifacts it produces establish the foundation for dedicated evaluation suites for defeasible argumentation, with broader implications for building AI systems whose
reasoning and value commitments are transparent, aligned, and subject to human oversight.
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Machine Learning
Scaling Laws for Mixture Pretraining Under Data Constraints
Anastasiia Sedova, Skyler Seto, Natalie Schluter et al. (+1 more)
As
language models scale, the amount of data they require grows – yet many target data sources, such as low-resource
languages or specialized domains, are inherently limited in size. A common strategy is to mix this scarce but valuable target data with abundant generic data, which presents a fundamental trade-off: too little target data in the mixture underexposes the model to the target domain, while too much target data repeats the same examples excessively, yielding diminishing returns and eventual overfitting. We study this trade-off across more than 2,000
language-model training runs spanning multiple model and target
dataset sizes, as well as several data types, including
multilingual, domain-specific, and quality-filtered mixtures. Across all settings, we find that repetition is a central driver of target-domain performance, and that mixture training tolerates much higher repetition than single-source training: scarce target corpora can be reused 15-20 times, with the optimal number of repetitions depending on the target data size, compute budget, and model scale. Next, we introduce a repetition-aware mixture scaling law that accounts for the decreasing value of repeated target
tokens and the regularizing role of generic data. Optimizing the scaling law provides a principled way to compute effective mixture configurations, yielding practical mixture recommendations for pretraining under data constraints.
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All authors Anastasiia Sedova, Skyler Seto, Natalie Schluter, Pierre Ablin
Machine Learning
Layer-wise Representation Dynamics: An Empirical Investigation Across Embedders and Base LLMs
Jingzhou Jiang, Yi Yang and Kar Yan Tam
Hidden states change substantially across the layers of modern
language models, but most layer-wise analyses focus on one aspect of that change. We propose Layer-wise Representation Dynamics (LRD), a framework with three layer-wise measurement families: Frenet (Grassmann speed and
curvature) for global subspace motion, Neighborhood Retention Score (NRS) for local nearest-neighbor retention, and Graph Filtration Mutual Information (GFMI) for
alignment with the final layer. Applying LRD to 31 models (encoder-based and decoder-based embedders, plus base LLMs) on 30 MTEB tasks reveals architectural and task-level differences that are not apparent from final-layer representations alone. We then use LRD for two applications: label-free model selection and inference-time layer
pruning. For selection, all three model-level scores correlate positively with downstream MTEB performance, with end-to-end subspace displacement (d_{0,L}) the strongest, and the same direction holds on a smaller base-LLM MMLU panel. For
pruning, GFMI is the only measurement-guided rule that beats Random at the 15% and 20% budgets and has the best median change at every budget. Frenet is effective only at the lightest budget, while NRS does not transfer from model selection to
pruning. These results show that layer-wise structure provides signal for both interpretation and deployment decisions.
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Machine Learning
Spectral Energy Centroid: a Metric for Improving Performance and Analyzing Spectral Bias in Implicit Neural Representations
Tomasz Dądela, Adam Kania, Maciej Rut et al. (+1 more)
Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) model continuous signals using multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), enabling compact, differentiable, and high-fidelity representations of data across diverse domains. However, due to the low-frequency bias of MLPs that prevents effective learning of small details, the model's frequency must be carefully tuned through the
embedding layer. Prior work established that this tuning can be performed before training based on the target signal, but it did not account for the significant effect of model depth, indicating that our understanding of the relationship between frequency and INR performance remains limited. To gain insights into this relationship, we utilize the Spectral Energy Centroid (SEC) metric that quantifies the frequency of target images and the spectral bias of INR models. We show that SEC is a versatile tool for INR analysis, demonstrating its utility across three tasks: (1) a data-driven strategy (SEC-Conf) for hyperparameter selection that outperforms existing heuristics and is robust to model depth, (2) a reliable proxy for signal complexity, and (3) effective
alignment of spectral biases across diverse INR architectures.
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All authors Tomasz Dądela, Adam Kania, Maciej Rut, Przemysław Spurek
Machine Learning
A Resampling-Based Framework for Network Structure Learning in High-Dimensional Data
Ziwei Huang, Zeyuan Song, Paola Sebastiani et al. (+1 more)
RSNet is an open-source R package that provides a resampling-based framework for robust and interpretable network inference, designed to address the limited-sample-size challenges common in high-dimensional data. It supports both the estimation of partial correlation networks modeled as Gaussian networks and conditional Gaussian
Bayesian networks for mixed data types that combine continuous and discrete variables. The framework incorporates multiple resampling strategies, including bootstrap, subsampling, and cluster-based approaches, to accommodate both independent and correlated observations. To enhance interpretability, RSNet integrates graphlet-based
topology analysis that captures higher-order connectivity and edge sign information, enabling single-node and subnetwork-level insights. Notably, RSNet is the first R package to efficiently construct signed graphlet degree vector
matrices (GDVMs) in near-constant time for sparse networks, providing scalable analysis of higher-order network structure. Collectively, RSNet offers a versatile tool for statistically reliable and interpretable network inference in high-dimensional data.
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All authors Ziwei Huang, Zeyuan Song, Paola Sebastiani, Stefano Monti
Machine Learning
Early Data Exposure Improves Robustness to Subsequent Fine-Tuning
Lawrence Feng, Gaurav R. Ghosal, Jacob Mitchell Springer et al. (+2 more)
How can we train models whose post-trained capabilities survive subsequent fine-tuning? Rather than focusing on downstream interventions to mitigate forgetting of upstream capabilities, we study how upstream training choices - that is, the manner in which a capability is acquired - shape how robustly that capability is retained. We investigate this question in a controlled three-stage
language-model pipeline: pretraining, post-training to acquire a target capability, and downstream fine-tuning on a new objective. Across 135M and 1B models, two post-training domains, and two downstream fine-tuning tasks, we find that immediate post-training performance does not reliably predict retention after subsequent fine-tuning: training recipes that look equivalent immediately after post-training can retain the target capability very differently after subsequent fine-tuning. In particular, early exposure - mixing post-training data into pretraining - consistently improves the frontier between retained upstream performance and downstream performance. In compute-matched experiments, where the target data must be allocated between pretraining and post-training, we find that the optimum lies at neither extreme. Together with our other empirical and theoretical findings, this supports the view that post-training drives immediate specialization while early exposure improves robustness to later forgetting. Replay and dropout, typically used to mitigate forgetting as it occurs during fine-tuning, provide complementary gains to early exposure when applied during post-training. Our findings suggest that robustness to subsequent fine-tuning should be treated as a first-class objective of upstream training, addressed preventatively through choices like early exposure rather than reactively during fine-tuning itself.
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All authors Lawrence Feng, Gaurav R. Ghosal, Jacob Mitchell Springer, Ziqian Zhong, Aditi Raghunathan
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SC
FePySR: A Neural Feature Extraction Framework for Efficient and Scalable Symbolic Regression
Zhiming Yu, Wangtao Lu and Xin Lai
A fundamental challenge in symbolic regression (SR) is efficiently recovering complex mathematical expressions from observational data. Although this problem is NP-hard, many expressions of practical interest decompose naturally into combinations of nonlinear feature modules, concentrating structural complexity into a small number of reusable components. Here, we introduce FePySR, a two-stage framework that reduces the SR search space by extracting valid features prior to equation search. FePySR first employs a heterogeneous neural network to constrain observational data to a set of candidate expressions, then performs structural optimization within this refined expression space using PySR. Across five standard
benchmarks, FePySR outperforms state-of-the-art methods by achieving higher equation recovery rates. On a set of 75 highly complex synthesized equations, FePySR recovers 36 equations, while producing substantially smaller mean squared errors on the remaining unrecovered cases, with reduced computation time compared to PySR. FePySR's first stage also maintains consistent performance under varying numbers of selected top features and increasing levels of noise in the observational data. Applied to ordinary differential equations governing biological systems, FePySR successfully identifies governing equations in 24 out of 100 tests where PySR recovers none. Taken together, FePySR is a generalizable framework that can enhance the SR solvers, enabling the efficient and reliable recovery of symbolic expressions across scientific domains.
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