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Friday 10 April

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Hypergraph Neural Networks Accelerate MUS Enumeration

Enumerating Minimal Unsatisfiable Subsets (MUSes) is a fundamental task in constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs). Its major challenge is the exponential growth of the search space, which becomes particularly severe when satisfiability checks are expensive. Recent machine learning approaches reduce this cost for Boolean satisfiability problems but rely on explicit variable-constraint relationships, limiting their application domains. This paper proposes a domain-agnostic method to accelerate MUS enumeration using Hypergraph Neural Networks (HGNNs). The proposed method incrementally builds a hypergraph with constraints as vertices and MUSes enumerated until the current step as hyperedges, and employs an HGNN-based agent trained via reinforcement learning to minimize the number of satisfiability checks required to obtain an MUS. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in accelerating MUS enumeration, showing that our method can enumerate more MUSes within the same satisfiability check budget compared to conventional methods.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

ASTRA: Adaptive Semantic Tree Reasoning Architecture for Complex Table Question Answering

Table serialization remains a critical bottleneck for Large Language Models (LLMs) in complex table question answering, hindered by challenges such as structural neglect, representation gaps, and reasoning opacity. Existing serialization methods fail to capture explicit hierarchies and lack schema flexibility, while current tree-based approaches suffer from limited semantic adaptability. To address these limitations, we propose ASTRA (Adaptive Semantic Tree Reasoning Architecture) including two main modules, AdaSTR and DuTR. First, we introduce AdaSTR, which leverages the global semantic awareness of LLMs to reconstruct tables into Logical Semantic Trees. This serialization explicitly models hierarchical dependencies and employs an adaptive mechanism to optimize construction strategies based on table scale. Second, building on this structure, we present DuTR, a dual-mode reasoning framework that integrates tree-search-based textual navigation for linguistic alignment and symbolic code execution for precise verification. Experiments on complex table benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance.
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All authors Xiaoke Guo, Songze Li, Zhiqiang Liu, Zhaoyan Gong, Yuanxiang Liu, Huajun Chen, Wen Zhang

Machine Learning

Neighbourhood Transformer: Switchable Attention for Monophily-Aware Graph Learning

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been widely adopted in engineering applications such as social network analysis, chemical research and computer vision. However, their efficacy is severely compromised by the inherent homophily assumption, which fails to hold for heterophilic graphs where dissimilar nodes are frequently connected. To address this fundamental limitation in graph learning, we first draw inspiration from the recently discovered monophily property of real-world graphs, and propose Neighbourhood Transformers (NT), a novel paradigm that applies self-attention within every local neighbourhood instead of aggregating messages to the central node as in conventional message-passing GNNs. This design makes NT inherently monophily-aware and theoretically guarantees its expressiveness is no weaker than traditional message-passing frameworks. For practical engineering deployment, we further develop a neighbourhood partitioning strategy equipped with switchable attentions, which reduces the space consumption of NT by over 95% and time consumption by up to 92.67%, significantly expanding its applicability to larger graphs. Extensive experiments on 10 real-world datasets (5 heterophilic and 5 homophilic graphs) show that NT outperforms all current state-of-the-art methods on node classification tasks, demonstrating its superior performance and cross-domain adaptability. The full implementation code of this work is publicly available at https://github.com/cf020031308/MoNT to facilitate reproducibility and industrial adoption.
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All authors Yi Luo, Xu Sun, Guangchun Luo, Aiguo Chen

Machine Learning

Modality-Aware Zero-Shot Pruning and Sparse Attention for Efficient Multimodal Edge Inference

Edge devices increasingly run multimodal sensing pipelines that must remain accurate despite fluctuating power budgets and unpredictable sensor dropout. Existing pruning methods fail under these conditions: they generally require fine-tuning after compression, consuming over $10\times$ the deployment energy, and they assign static importance scores that are blind to which sensors are present. We present the SentryFuse framework, which addresses both challenges jointly through two key components. First, SentryGate learns modality-conditioned importance scores during training via first-order saliency supervision and then prunes attention heads and feed-forward channels at deployment without fine-tuning. Second, SentryAttend replaces dense self-attention, a key bottleneck in contemporary multimodal architectures, with sparse grouped-query attention, yielding a net 15% reduction in GFLOPs across three different multimodal architectures. Across three applications and multimodal backbones, SentryGate achieves a 12.7% average accuracy improvement over the strongest pruning baseline, and upto to 18% under modality dropout conditions. Together, SentryFuse reduces memory by 28.2% and lowers latency by up to $1.63\times$ without further fine-tuning, establishing modality-aware zero-shot compression as a practical path to multimodal intelligence on heterogeneous edge hardware.
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All authors Yueyuan Sui, Payal Mohapatra, Doğaç Eldenk, Haodong Yang, Yiting Zhang, Haoyan Zhang, Qi Zhu, Stephen Xia

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Online Quantile Regression for Nonparametric Additive Models

This paper introduces a projected functional gradient descent algorithm (P-FGD) for training nonparametric additive quantile regression models in online settings. This algorithm extends the functional stochastic gradient descent framework to the pinball loss. An advantage of P-FGD is that it does not need to store historical data while maintaining $O(J_t\ln J_t)$ computational complexity per step where $J_t$ denotes the number of basis functions. Besides, we only need $O(J_t)$ computational time for quantile function prediction at time $t$. These properties show that P-FGD is much better than the commonly used RKHS in online learning. By leveraging a novel Hilbert space projection identity, we also prove that the proposed online quantile function estimator (P-FGD) achieves the minimax optimal consistency rate $O(t^{-\frac{2s}{2s+1}})$ where $t$ is the current time and $s$ denotes the smoothness degree of the quantile function. Extensions to mini-batch learning are also established.
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Machine Learning

Efficient Hierarchical Implicit Flow Q-learning for Offline Goal-conditioned Reinforcement Learning

Offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) is a practical reinforcement learning paradigm that aims to learn goal-conditioned policies from reward-free offline data. Despite recent advances in hierarchical architectures such as HIQL, long-horizon control in offline GCRL remains challenging due to the limited expressiveness of Gaussian policies and the inability of high-level policies to generate effective subgoals. To address these limitations, we propose the goal-conditioned mean flow policy, which introduces an average velocity field into hierarchical policy modeling for offline GCRL. Specifically, the mean flow policy captures complex target distributions for both high-level and low-level policies through a learned average velocity field, enabling efficient action generation via one-step sampling. Furthermore, considering the insufficiency of goal representation, we introduce a LeJEPA loss that repels goal representation embeddings during training, thereby encouraging more discriminative representations and improving generalization. Experimental results show that our method achieves strong performance across both state-based and pixel-based tasks in the OGBench benchmark.
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All authors Zhiqiang Dong, Teng Pang, Rongjian Xu, Guoqiang Wu

Machine Learning

WOMBET: World Model-Based Experience Transfer for Robust and Sample-efficient Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) in robotics is often limited by the cost and risk of data collection, motivating experience transfer from a source task to a target task. Offline-to-online RL leverages prior data but typically assumes a given fixed dataset and does not address how to generate reliable data for transfer. We propose World Model-Based Experience Transfer (WOMBET), a framework that jointly generates and utilizes prior data. WOMBET learns a world model in the source task and generates offline data via uncertainty-penalized planning, followed by filtering trajectories with high return and low epistemic uncertainty. It then performs online fine-tuning in the target task using adaptive sampling between offline and online data, enabling a stable transition from prior-driven initialization to task-specific adaptation. We show that the uncertainty-penalized objective provides a lower bound on the true return and derive a finite-sample error decomposition capturing distribution mismatch and approximation error. Empirically, WOMBET improves sample efficiency and final performance over strong baselines on continuous control benchmarks, demonstrating the benefit of jointly optimizing data generation and transfer.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Low-Data Supervised Adaptation Outperforms Prompting for Cloud Segmentation Under Domain Shift

Adapting vision-language models to remote sensing imagery presents a fundamental challenge: both the visual and linguistic distributions of satellite data lie far outside natural image pretraining corpora. Despite this, prompting remains the dominant deployment paradigm, driven by the assumption that domain-specific language can guide frozen model representations toward specialized tasks. We test this assumption directly on a domain where the mismatch is prominent: cloud segmentation for satellite imagery. Using CLIPSeg on the CloudSEN12+ cloud segmentation benchmark, we evaluate 60 prompt variants spanning simple labels, domain terminology, appearance descriptors, and contextual cues, finding that every variant underperforms the zero-shot baseline (0.255 mIoU), with engineered prompts scoring as low as 0.07 mIoU. No amount of linguistic refinement bridges the gap between CLIP's natural image representations and satellite spectral imagery. In contrast, supervised fine-tuning with just 0.1% labeled data (~8 images) surpasses zero-shot performance overall, and 5-10% data recovers ~85% of maximum achievable mIoU. Full fine-tuning consistently outperforms low-rank adaptation by 0.03-0.09 mIoU, with the largest gaps for spectrally ambiguous classes, and at 0.5 to 1% labeled data, fine-tuning temporarily degrades performance on these classes before recovering, a supervision dip that aggregate mIoU can mask. For practitioners adapting vision-language models to specialized imagery, our results deliver a clear message: labeled data is not the expensive alternative to prompting; it is the worthwhile path.
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Machine Learning

Multi-Agent Decision-Focused Learning via Value-Aware Sequential Communication

Multi-agent coordination under partial observability requires agents to share complementary private information. While recent methods optimize messages for intermediate objectives (e.g., reconstruction accuracy or mutual information), rather than decision quality, we introduce SeqComm-DFL, unifying the sequential communication with decision-focused learning for task performance. Our approach features value-aware message generation with sequential Stackelberg conditioning: messages maximize receiver decision quality and are generated in priority order, with agents conditioning on their predecessors. The guidance potential determined by their prosocial ordering. We extend Optimal Model Design to communication-augmented world models with QMIX factorization, enabling efficient end-to-end training via implicit differentiation. We prove information-theoretic bounds showing that communication value scales with coordination gaps and establish $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ convergence for the bilevel optimization, where $T$ denotes the number of training iterations. On collaborative healthcare and StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC) benchmarks, SeqComm-DFL achieves four to six times higher cumulative rewards and over 13% win rate improvements, enabling coordination strategies inaccessible under information asymmetry.
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Machine Learning

Predictive Entropy as a Joint Screen for Error and Paraphrase Instability in Medical Vision-Language Models

Medical Vision-Language Models (VLMs) answering binary presence questions on chest radiographs can fail in two linked ways: they are confidently wrong, and they change answers when a clinically equivalent question is rephrased. In a binary answer head both failures track the same logit margin, so we test how well one score screens for both. On MedGemma-4B-IT across MIMIC-CXR (in-distribution, n=196) and PadChest (out-of-distribution, n=861), single-pass predictive entropy predicts which yes/no answers flip under rephrasing with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.823 on PadChest and 0.821 on MIMIC, and the signal is stable across five random seeds (0.828$\pm$0.021). The same signal replicates on LLaVA-RAD-7B (AUROC 0.83) and is invariant to the flip definition (all, operator-preserving, or negation-excluded rewrites), so the screen needs no semantic filter at inference. One low-entropy threshold drives error and flip rate down together (3.3% and 5.7% at 80% coverage), and threshold selection transfers to a held-out split. Under cross-site shift the more expensive methods we test add nothing practical: at the 5% risk target a single forward pass answers 88.5% of cases, matching Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, and beats the uniformly averaged five-seed adapter ensemble on error detection by 0.111 AUROC. Even a model that is 91% accurate still contradicts itself on 13% of items under rephrasing, and one forward pass flags them.
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Machine Learning

Delve into the Applicability of Advanced Optimizers for Multi-Task Learning

Multi-Task Learning (MTL) is a foundational machine learning problem that has seen extensive development over the past decade. Recently, various optimization-based MTL approaches have been proposed to learn multiple tasks simultaneously by altering the optimization trajectory. Although these methods strive to de-conflict and re-balance tasks, we empirically identify that their effectiveness is often undermined by an overlooked factor when employing advanced optimizers: the instant-derived gradients play only a marginal role in the actual parameter updates. This discrepancy prevents MTL frameworks from fully releasing its power on learning dynamics. Furthermore, we observe that Muon-a recently emerged advanced optimizer-inherently functions as a multi-task learner, which underscores the critical importance of the gradients used for its orthogonalization. To address these issues, we propose APT (Applicability of advanced oPTimizers), a framework featuring a simple adaptive momentum mechanism designed to balance the strengths between advanced optimizers and MTL. Additionally, we introduce a light direction preservation method to facilitate Muon's orthogonalization. Extensive experiments across four mainstream MTL datasets demonstrate that APT consistently augments existing MTL approaches, yielding substantial performance improvements.
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All authors Zhipeng Zhou, Linxiao Cao, Pengcheng Wu, Peilin Zhao, Chunyan Miao

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

A novel hybrid approach for positive-valued DAG learning

Causal discovery from observational data remains a fundamental challenge in machine learning and statistics, particularly when variables represent inherently positive quantities such as gene expression levels, asset prices, company revenues, or population counts, which often follow multiplicative rather than additive dynamics. We propose the Hybrid Moment-Ratio Scoring (H-MRS) algorithm, a novel method for learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from positive-valued data by combining moment-based scoring with log-scale regression. The key idea is that for positive-valued variables, the moment ratio $\frac{\mathbb{E}[X_j^2]}{\mathbb{E}[(\mathbb{E}[X_j \mid S])^2]}$ provides an effective criterion for causal ordering, where $S$ denotes candidate parent sets. H-MRS integrates log-scale Ridge regression for moment-ratio estimation with a greedy ordering procedure based on raw-scale moment ratios, followed by Elastic Net-based parent selection to recover the final DAG structure. Experiments on synthetic log-linear data demonstrate competitive precision and recall. The proposed method is computationally efficient and naturally respects positivity constraints, making it suitable for applications in genomics and economics. These results suggest that combining log-scale modeling with raw-scale moment ratios provides a practical framework for causal discovery in positive-valued domains.
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Machine Learning

Bridging SFT and RL: Dynamic Policy Optimization for Robust Reasoning

Post-training paradigms for Large Language Models (LLMs), primarily Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL), face a fundamental dilemma: SFT provides stability (low variance) but suffers from high fitting bias, while RL enables exploration (low bias) but grapples with high gradient variance. Existing unified optimization strategies often employ naive loss weighting, overlooking the statistical conflict between these distinct gradient signals. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of this bias-variance trade-off and propose DYPO (Dynamic Policy Optimization), a unified framework designed to structurally mitigate this conflict. DYPO integrates three core components: (1) a Group Alignment Loss (GAL) that leverages intrinsic group dynamics to significantly reduce RL gradient variance; (2) a Multi-Teacher Distillation mechanism that corrects SFT fitting bias via diverse reasoning paths; and (3) a Dynamic Exploitation-Exploration Gating mechanism that adaptively arbitrates between stable SFT and exploratory RL based on reward feedback. Theoretical analysis confirms that DYPO linearly reduces fitting bias and minimizes overall variance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DYPO significantly outperforms traditional sequential pipelines, achieving an average improvement of 4.8% on complex reasoning benchmarks and 13.3% on out-of-distribution tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Tocci-Zhu/DYPO.
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All authors Taojie Zhu, Dongyang Xu, Ding Zou, Sen Zhao, Qiaobo Hao, Zhiguo Yang, Yonghong He

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR

Beyond Relevance: Utility-Centric Retrieval in the LLM Era

Information retrieval systems have traditionally optimized for topical relevance-the degree to which retrieved documents match a query. However, relevance only approximates a deeper goal: utility, namely, whether retrieved information helps accomplish a user's underlying task. The emergence of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) fundamentally changes this paradigm. Retrieved documents are no longer consumed directly by users but instead serve as evidence for large language models (LLMs) that produce answers. As a result, retrieval effectiveness must be evaluated by its contribution to generation quality rather than by relevance-based ranking metrics alone. This tutorial argues that retrieval objectives are evolving from relevance-centric optimization toward LLM-centric utility. We present a unified framework covering LLM-agnostic versus LLM-specific utility, context-independent versus context-dependent utility, and the connection with LLM information needs and agentic RAG. By synthesizing recent advances, the tutorial provides conceptual foundations and practical guidance for designing retrieval systems aligned with the requirements of LLM-based information access.
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All authors Hengran Zhang, Minghao Tang, Keping Bi, Jiafeng Guo

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

StaRPO: Stability-Augmented Reinforcement Policy Optimization

Reinforcement learning (RL) is effective in enhancing the accuracy of large language models in complex reasoning tasks. Existing RL policy optimization frameworks rely on final-answer correctness as feedback signals and rarely capture the internal logical structure of the reasoning process. Consequently, the models would generate fluent and semantically relevant responses but logically inconsistent, structurally erratic, or redundant. To this end, we propose StaRPO, a stability-augmented reinforcement learning framework that explicitly incorporates reasoning stability into the optimization objective. Our StaRPO decomposes stability into two computable lightweight metrics: the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) to evaluate local step-to-step coherence, and Path Efficiency (PE) to evaluate global goal-directedness of the reasoning trajectory. These stability rewards are combined with task rewards to provide complementary and process-aware feedback. We validate the effectiveness of using ACF and PE rewards by showing their correlation with logic errors on two backbone models. Experiments on four reasoning benchmarks show that StaRPO consistently outperforms compared baselines and can enhance both final-answer accuracy and logical stability.
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All authors Jinghan Zhang, Fengran Mo, Tharindu Cyril Weerasooriya, Ruimin Dai, Xiaoyan Han, Yanjie Fu, Dakuo Wang, Kunpeng Liu

Machine Learning

Using Synthetic Data for Machine Learning-based Childhood Vaccination Prediction in Narok, Kenya

Background: Limited data utilization in low-resource settings poses a barrier to the vaccine delivery ecosystem, undermining efforts to achieve equitable immunization coverage. In nomadic populations, individuals face an increased risk of missing crucial vaccination doses as children. One such population is the Maasai in Narok County, Kenya, where the absence of high-volume, quality data hampers accurate coverage estimates, impedes efficient resource allocation, and weakens the ability to deliver timely interventions. Additionally, data privacy concerns are heightened in groups with limited sensitive data. Objectives: First, we aim to identify children at risk of missing key vaccines across a large population to provide timely, evidence-based interventions that support increased vaccination coverage. Second, we aim to better protect the privacy of sensitive health data in a vulnerable population. Methods: We digitized 8 years of child vaccination records from the MOH 510 registry (n=6,913) and applied machine learning models (Logistic Regression and XGBoost) to identify children at risk. Additionally, we utilize a novel approach to tabular diffusion-based synthetic data generation (TabSyn) to protect patient privacy within the models. Results: Our findings show that classification techniques can reliably and successfully predict children at risk of missing a vaccine, with recall, precision, and F1-scores exceeding 90% for some vaccines modeled. Additionally, training these models with synthetic data rather than real data, thus preserving the privacy of individuals within the original dataset, does not lead to a loss in predictive performance. Conclusion: These results support the use of synthetic data implementation in health informatics strategies for clinics with limited digital infrastructure, enabling privacy-preserving, scalable forecasting for childhood immunization coverage.
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All authors Jimmy Bach, Yang Li, Yaqi Liu, John Sankok, Rose Kimani, Carrie B. Dolan, Julius N. Odhiambo, Haipeng Chen

Machine Learning

Adaptive Candidate Point Thompson Sampling for High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization

In Bayesian optimization, Thompson sampling selects the evaluation point by sampling from the posterior distribution over the objective function maximizer. Because this sampling problem is intractable for Gaussian process (GP) surrogates, the posterior distribution is typically restricted to fixed discretizations (i.e., candidate points) that become exponentially sparse as dimensionality increases. While previous works aim to increase candidate point density through scalable GP approximations, our orthogonal approach increases density by adaptively reducing the search space during sampling. Specifically, we introduce Adaptive Candidate Thompson Sampling (ACTS), which generates candidate points in subspaces guided by the gradient of a surrogate model sample. ACTS is a simple drop-in replacement for existing TS methods – including those that use trust regions or other local approximations – producing better samples of maxima and improved optimization across synthetic and real-world benchmarks.
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Machine Learning

A Closer Look at the Application of Causal Inference in Graph Representation Learning

Modeling causal relationships in graph representation learning remains a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches often draw on theories and methods from causal inference to identify causal subgraphs or mitigate confounders. However, due to the inherent complexity of graph-structured data, these approaches frequently aggregate diverse graph elements into single causal variables, an operation that risks violating the core assumptions of causal inference. In this work, we prove that such aggregation compromises causal validity. Building on this conclusion, we propose a theoretical model grounded in the smallest indivisible units of graph data to ensure that the causal validity is guaranteed. With this model, we further analyze the costs of achieving precise causal modeling in graph representation learning and identify the conditions under which the problem can be simplified. To empirically support our theory, we construct a controllable synthetic dataset that reflects realworld causal structures and conduct extensive experiments for validation. Finally, we develop a causal modeling enhancement module that can be seamlessly integrated into existing graph learning pipelines, and we demonstrate its effectiveness through comprehensive comparative experiments.
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All authors Hang Gao, Kunyu Li, Huang Hong, Baoquan Cui, Fengge Wu

Machine Learning

Uncertainty-Aware Transformers: Conformal Prediction for Language Models

Transformers have had a profound impact on the field of artificial intelligence, especially on large language models and their variants. However, as was the case with neural networks, their black-box nature limits trust and deployment in high-stakes settings. For models to be genuinely useful and trustworthy in critical applications, they must provide more than just predictions: they must supply users with a clear understanding of the reasoning that underpins their decisions. This article presents an uncertainty quantification framework for transformer-based language models. This framework, called CONFIDE (CONformal prediction for FIne-tuned DEep language models), applies conformal prediction to the internal embeddings of encoder-only architectures, like BERT and RoBERTa, while enabling hyperparameter tuning. CONFIDE uses either [CLS] token embeddings or flattened hidden states to construct class-conditional nonconformity scores, enabling statistically valid prediction sets with instance-level explanations. Empirically, CONFIDE improves test accuracy by up to 4.09% on BERT-tiny and achieves greater correct efficiency (i.e., the expected size of the prediction set conditioned on it containing the true label) compared to prior methods, including NM2 and VanillaNN. We show that early and intermediate transformer layers often yield better-calibrated and more semantically meaningful representations for conformal prediction. In resource-constrained models and high-stakes tasks with ambiguous labels, CONFIDE offers robustness and interpretability where softmax-based uncertainty fails. We position CONFIDE as a framework for practical diagnostic and efficiency/robustness improvement over prior conformal baselines.
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Machine Learning

Revisiting the Capacity Gap in Chain-of-Thought Distillation from a Practical Perspective

Chain-of-thought (CoT) distillation transfers reasoning behaviors from a strong teacher to a smaller student, but prior work reports a capacity gap: distillation may fail when the teacher-student capability mismatch is large. We revisit the capacity gap from a practical perspective by re-examining commonly used experimental settings. Notably, we find that CoT distillation often degrades performance compared to the student's pre-distillation baseline, and that some settings used in prior work, while suitable for establishing the capacity gap as a phenomenon, do not reflect realistic deployment scenarios. Complementing prior work that establishes the capacity gap, we evaluate its practical impact under more realistic settings and find that it does not consistently dominate; stronger teachers tend to be preferable when candidate teachers differ substantially in performance. Our results offer practical guidance for selecting teacher-student pairs in CoT distillation.
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Machine Learning

An Auditable Policy-Simulation Framework for Student Dropout in Intervention-Free Data

This study proposes a temporal modeling framework with a counterfactual policy-simulation layer for student dropout in higher education, using LMS engagement data and administrative withdrawal records. Dropout is operationalized as a time-to-event outcome at the enrollment level; weekly risk is modeled in discrete time via penalized, class-balanced logistic regression over person–period rows. Under a late-event temporal holdout, the model attains row-level AUCs of 0.8350 (train) and 0.8405 (test), with aggregate calibration acceptable but sparsely supported in the highest-risk bins. Ablation analyses indicate performance is sensitive to feature set composition, underscoring the role of temporal engagement signals. A scenario-indexed policy layer produces survival contrasts $\Delta S(T)$ under an explicit trigger/schedule contract: positive contrasts are confined to the shock branch ($T_{\rm policy}=18$: 0.0102, 0.0260, 0.0819), while the mechanism-aware branch is negative ($\Delta S_{\rm mech}(18)=-0.0078$, $\Delta S_{\rm mech}(38)=-0.0134$). A subgroup analysis by gender quantifies scenario-induced survival gaps via bootstrap; contrasts are directionally stable but small. Results are not causally identified; they demonstrate the framework's capacity for internal structural scenario comparison under observational data constraints.
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2604.08874 · 10 Apr · Approx. 20 pages, 9 figures. Code and reproducibility package available at https://github.com/rafa-rodriguess/TCM-Student-Dropout This work introduces a temporal survival framework with counterfactual policy simulation

Machine Learning

How does Chain of Thought decompose complex tasks?

Many language tasks can be modeled as classification problems where a large language model (LLM) is given a prompt and selects one among many possible answers. We show that the classification error in such problems scales as a power law in the number of classes. This has a dramatic consequence: the prediction error can be reduced substantially by splitting the overall task into a sequence of smaller classification problems, each with the same number of classes ("degree"). This tree-structured decomposition models chain-of-thought (CoT). It has been observed that CoT-based predictors perform better when they "think", i.e., when they develop a deeper tree, thus decomposing the problem into a larger number of steps. We identify a critical threshold for the degree, below which thinking is detrimental, and above which there exists an optimal depth that minimizes the error. It is impossible to surpass this minimal error by increasing the depth of thinking.
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Machine Learning

A Unified Survival Benchmark for Temporal Dropout Risk Prediction in Learning Analytics

Student dropout is a persistent concern in Learning Analytics, yet comparative studies frequently evaluate predictive models under heterogeneous protocols, prioritizing discrimination over temporal interpretability and calibration. This study introduces a survival-oriented benchmark for temporal dropout risk modelling using the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD). Two arms are compared: Family A: Dynamic Weekly, with models in person-period representation, and Family B: Static Early-Window, with an expanded roster of families: tree-based survival, parametric, and neural models. The evaluation protocol integrates four analytical layers: predictive performance, ablation, explainability, and calibration. Results are reported within each family separately, because a single numerical cross-family ranking would conflate genuine model differences with artifacts of temporal representation, to which survival metrics are known to be sensitive. Within Family B, Random Survival Forest showed the highest point estimates for time-dependent concordance and the lowest Brier scores across all three horizons; within Family A, Poisson Piecewise-Exponential showed the lowest point estimate for integrated Brier score within a tight five-model cluster. No-refit bootstrap resampling qualifies these positions as directional signals, not claims of strict superiority. Ablation and explainability analyses converged, across all models, on a shared finding: the dominant predictive signal was not primarily demographic or structural, but temporal and behavioral. Calibration corroborated this pattern in the better-discriminating models, except for XGBoost AFT, the sole outlier (analyzed in the Discussion). These results support unified, multi-dimensional benchmarking in Learning Analytics and situate dropout risk as a temporal-behavioral process rather than a function of static background attributes.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.IV

MedFormer-UR: Uncertainty-Routed Transformer for Medical Image Classification

To ensure safe clinical integration, deep learning models must provide more than just high accuracy; they require dependable uncertainty quantification. While current Medical Vision Transformers perform well, they frequently struggle with overconfident predictions and a lack of transparency, issues that are magnified by the noisy and imbalanced nature of clinical data. To address this, we enhanced the modified Medical Transformer (MedFormer) that incorporates prototype-based learning and uncertainty-guided routing, by utilizing a Dirichlet distribution for per-token evidential uncertainty, our framework can quantify and localize ambiguity in real-time. This uncertainty is not just an output but an active participant in the training process, filtering out unreliable feature updates. Furthermore, the use of class-specific prototypes ensures the embedding space remains structured, allowing for decisions based on visual similarity. Testing across four modalities (mammography, ultrasound, MRI, and histopathology) confirms that our approach significantly enhances model calibration, reducing expected calibration error (ECE) by up to 35%, and improves selective prediction, even when accuracy gains are modest.
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Machine Learning

Finite-Sample Analysis of Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis:Sample Complexity and Identifiability Bounds

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a fundamental unsupervised learning technique foruncovering latent structure in data by separating mixed signals into their independent sources. While substantial progress has been made in establishing asymptotic identifiability guarantees for nonlinear ICA, the finite-sample statistical properties of learning algorithms remain poorly understood. This gap poses significant challenges for practitioners who must determine appropriate sample sizes for reliable source recovery. This paper presents a comprehensive finite-sample analysis of nonlinear ICA with neural network encoders, providing the first complete characterization with matching upper and lower bounds. Our theoretical development introduces three key technical contributions. First, we establish a direct relationship between excess risk and identification error that bypasses parameter-space arguments, thereby avoiding the rate degradation that would otherwise yield suboptimal scaling. Second, we prove matching information-theoretic lower bounds that confirm the optimality of our sample complexity results. Third, we extend our analysis to practical SGD optimization, showing that the same sample efficiency can be achieved with finite-iteration gradient descent under standard landscape assumptions. We validate our theoretical predictions through carefully designed simulation experiments. This gap points toward valuable future research on finite-sample behavior of neural network training and highlights the importance of our validated scaling laws for dimension and diversity.
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Machine Learning

Dictionary-Aligned Concept Control for Safeguarding Multimodal LLMs

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have been shown to be vulnerable to malicious queries that can elicit unsafe responses. Recent work uses prompt engineering, response classification, or finetuning to improve MLLM safety. Nevertheless, such approaches are often ineffective against evolving malicious patterns, may require rerunning the query, or demand heavy computational resources. Steering the activations of a frozen model at inference time has recently emerged as a flexible and effective solution. However, existing steering methods for MLLMs typically handle only a narrow set of safety-related concepts or struggle to adjust specific concepts without affecting others. To address these challenges, we introduce Dictionary-Aligned Concept Control (DACO), a framework that utilizes a curated concept dictionary and a Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) to provide granular control over MLLM activations. First, we curate a dictionary of 15,000 multimodal concepts by retrieving over 400,000 caption-image stimuli and summarizing their activations into concept directions. We name the dataset DACO-400K. Second, we show that the curated dictionary can be used to intervene activations via sparse coding. Third, we propose a new steering approach that uses our dictionary to initialize the training of an SAE and automatically annotate the semantics of the SAE atoms for safeguarding MLLMs. Experiments on multiple MLLMs (e.g., QwenVL, LLaVA, InternVL) across safety benchmarks (e.g., MM-SafetyBench, JailBreakV) show that DACO significantly improves MLLM safety while maintaining general-purpose capabilities.
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All authors Jinqi Luo, Jinyu Yang, Tal Neiman, Lei Fan, Bing Yin, Son Tran, Mubarak Shah, René Vidal

Machine Learning

Spectral Geometry of LoRA Adapters Encodes Training Objective and Predicts Harmful Compliance

We study whether low-rank spectral summaries of LoRA weight deltas can identify which fine-tuning objective was applied to a language model, and whether that geometric signal predicts downstream behavioral harm. In a pre-registered experiment on Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct, we manufacture 38 LoRA adapters across four categories: healthy SFT baselines, DPO on inverted harmlessness preferences, DPO on inverted helpfulness preferences, and activation-steering-derived adapters, and extract per-layer spectral features (norms, stable rank, singular-value entropy, effective rank, and singular-vector cosine alignment to a healthy centroid). Within a single training method (DPO), a logistic regression classifier achieves AUC~1.00 on binary drift detection, all six pairwise objective comparisons, and near-perfect ordinal severity ranking ($\rho \geq 0.956$). Principal component analysis on flattened weight deltas reveals that training objective is PC1 (AUC~1.00 for objective separation), orthogonal to training duration on PC2. Query-projection weights detect that drift occurred; value-projection weights identify which objective. Cross-method generalization fails completely: a DPO-trained classifier assigns every steering adapter a lower drift score than every DPO adapter (AUC~0.00). In a behavioral evaluation phase, DPO-inverted-harmlessness adapters show elevated harmful compliance on HEx-PHI prompts (mean ASR 0.266 vs.\ healthy 0.112, $\Delta = +0.154$), with near-perfect dose–response ($\rho = 0.986$). The geometry-to-behavior rank correlation is $\rho = 0.72$ across 24 non-steered adapters. These results establish that within a controlled manufacturing regime, LoRA weight-space geometry carries objective identity, intensity ordering, and a coarse link to harmful compliance, and that cross-method monitoring requires per-method calibration.
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Machine Learning

Discrete Meanflow Training Curriculum

Flow-based image generative models exhibit stable training and produce high quality samples when using multi-step sampling procedures. One-step generative models can produce high quality image samples but can be difficult to optimize as they often exhibit unstable training dynamics. Meanflow models exhibit excellent few-step sampling performance and tantalizing one-step sampling performance. Notably, MeanFlow models that achieve this have required extremely large training budgets. We significantly decrease the amount of computation and data budget it takes to train Meanflow models by noting and exploiting a particular discretization of the Meanflow objective that yields a consistency property which we formulate into a “Discrete Meanflow” (DMF) Training Curriculum. Initialized with a pretrained Flow Model, DMF curriculum reaches one-step FID 3.36 on CIFAR-10 in only 2000 epochs. We anticipate that faster training curriculums of Meanflow models, specifically those fine-tuned from existing Flow Models, drives efficient training methods of future one-step examples.
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Machine Learning

Hierarchical Kernel Transformer: Multi-Scale Attention with an Information-Theoretic Approximation Analysis

The Hierarchical Kernel Transformer (HKT) is a multi-scale attention mechanism that processes sequences at L resolution levels via trainable causal downsampling, combining level-specific score matrices through learned convex weights. The total computational cost is bounded by 4/3 times that of standard attention, reaching 1.3125x for L = 3. Four theoretical results are established. (i) The hierarchical score matrix defines a positive semidefinite kernel under a sufficient condition on the symmetrised bilinear form (Proposition 3.1). (ii) The asymmetric score matrix decomposes uniquely into a symmetric part controlling reciprocal attention and an antisymmetric part controlling directional attention; HKT provides L independent such pairs across scales, one per resolution level (Propositions 3.5-3.6). (iii) The approximation error decomposes into three interpretable components with an explicit non-Gaussian correction and a geometric decay bound in L (Theorem 4.3, Proposition 4.4). (iv) HKT strictly subsumes single-head standard attention and causal convolution (Proposition 3.4). Experiments over 3 random seeds show consistent gains over retrained standard attention baselines: +4.77pp on synthetic ListOps (55.10+-0.29% vs 50.33+-0.12%, T = 512), +1.44pp on sequential CIFAR-10 (35.45+-0.09% vs 34.01+-0.19%, T = 1,024), and +7.47pp on IMDB character-level sentiment (70.19+-0.57% vs 62.72+-0.40%, T = 1,024), all at 1.31x overhead.
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Machine Learning

Post-Hoc Guidance for Consistency Models by Joint Flow Distribution Learning

Classifier-free Guidance (CFG) lets practitioners trade-off fidelity against diversity in Diffusion Models (DMs). The practicality of CFG is however hindered by DMs sampling cost. On the other hand, Consistency Models (CMs) generate images in one or a few steps, but existing guidance methods require knowledge distillation from a separate DM teacher, limiting CFG to Consistency Distillation (CD) methods. We propose Joint Flow Distribution Learning (JFDL), a lightweight alignment method enabling guidance in a pre-trained CM. With a pre-trained CM as an ordinary differential equation (ODE) solver, we verify with normality tests that the variance-exploding noise implied by the velocity fields from unconditional and conditional distributions is Gaussian. In practice, JFDL equips CMs with the familiar adjustable guidance knob, yielding guided images with similar characteristics to CFG. Applied to an original Consistency Trained (CT) CM that could only do conditional sampling, JFDL unlocks guided generation and reduces FID on both CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 64x64 datasets. This is the first time that CMs are able to receive effective guidance post-hoc without a DM teacher, thus, bridging a key gap in current methods for CMs.
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