Papers

We study risk-sensitive evolutionary learning dynamics and their long-run equilibrium selection behaviors in coordination games. Agents' risk attitudes enter through the classical entropic risk measure, which evaluates opponent-induced payoff uncertainty and feeds into noisy best responses under two standard revision protocols: best response with mutations and logit choice. We first analyze $2\times 2$ coordination games in both single-population symmetric and two-population asymmetric settings. In the single-population setting, unlike the risk-neutral case where the dynamics are known to favor the risk-dominant equilibrium, we show that risk sensitivity can change the stochastically stable outcome: a greater risk-seeking attitude favors the payoff-dominant equilibrium, while a greater risk-averse attitude favors the maximin equilibrium. Thus, the population's risk attitude may act as a control knob for long-run equilibrium selection. In both population settings, we also identify a robust regime: any super-dominant equilibrium is stochastically stable for all risk attitudes, under both protocols, and across populations. We further extend the single-population analysis to symmetric $k$-action games, which include symmetric $k$-action coordination games as a special case, under risk-sensitive best response with mutations. In this setting, we show that, for sufficiently large populations, sufficiently risk-seeking agents uniquely select the strongly payoff-dominant equilibrium when it exists, whereas sufficiently risk-averse agents uniquely select the strongly maximin equilibrium when it exists. These results show that entropic risk sensitivity may serve as a systematic mechanism for steering equilibrium selection in evolutionary games, beyond the classical risk-neutral benchmark.

Stateful agents reuse artifacts after producing executions and permissions change. We formalize authority-sufficient observations and durable effects bound to execution and material identities. WTB implements this interface through runtime adapters, shared evidence, and transactional publication/recovery. Six study families separate the mechanism from its integration. Raw and typed evidence both solve 32/32 authority cases, with model-dependent planning effects. Fixed-intent enforcement blocks six unsafe proposals and executes 12 eligible authorized intents. Complete controls match WTB's capability. Paid integration yields 176/210 accepted benchmark-source stages, including 19/30 publication stages, recovery on 8/8 primary SWE repositories, and the most complete continuous trajectories on each of three source tasks. The findings connect authority information, effect admission, and infrastructure reuse in stateful agents.

Persistent communication limits force a multi-agent system to decide which agents may coordinate throughout a rollout. Current proximity alone is insufficient: separated agents may interact later, whereas a large pair reward may remain unreachable until it is heavily discounted. We introduce Reachability-Certified Subteam Decomposition (RCSD) for finite multi-agent Markov decision processes with factorized physical dynamics, finite-range ordered pair rewards, and almost-sure motion bounds. RCSD combines a speed-limit lower bound on pairwise contact time with a reward envelope to form a current-state affinity. For any capacity-valid persistent partition, the sum of cut affinities bounds the reward-deletion error of every unchanged stationary Markov state-feedback policy. A product of team-optimal policies for the resulting cut MDP incurs at most twice this certificate in regret against the centralized optimum. Both bounds are worst-case tight. On a controlled five-agent family, RCSD-Exact reduces aggregate normalized execution regret by 56.0%, 28.8%, and 25.3% relative to uniform, distance-only, and envelope-only partitions. A separate stochastic two-dimensional study finds no bound violation over 384 exact-partition and 1,440 restricted-controller evaluations. Exact four-agent evidence favors RCSD over uniform and distance-only grouping; raw evidence for current contact is borderline and envelope-only is unresolved. Across balanced 8-20-agent strata, controller-library utility is mixed: pointwise paired intervals favor RCSD over distance and current contact, include zero for uniform, and favor envelope-only and Value-MIP over RCSD. Partition construction remains subsecond in median up to 100 agents; this last result does not include affinity formation or MDP planning.

Offline multi-agent payoff models are estimated under a logging distribution but used on distributions induced by learned solutions and unilateral deviations. Standard held-out loss can therefore favor an interaction class that predicts logged play well while distorting strategic incentives. We introduce Selective Interaction-Rank Validation (SIRV) for finite games with known logging distributions. A training split fits nested payoff models and constructs a common union of all candidate deployment and unilateral-replacement distributions; an independent calibration split evaluates every candidate on this same union. SIRV returns the smallest rank whose simultaneous upper worst-target risk is within tolerance of the best upper score, and abstains when a declared target is unsupported or too imprecisely estimated. A common coverage event yields a finite-candidate target-risk bound and a candidate-specific coarse correlated equilibrium (CCE) gap certificate. We also isolate an exact two-point off-support non-identifiability result. In a controlled factorial study with 2,048 independent games per family, empirical-Bernstein bounds reduce the median CCE-gap certificate by 42.5% relative to Hoeffding bounds on common returns, with a 1.36-point reduction in supported return. Under paired rank misspecification and in a separately generated congestion family, the SIRV-EB fallback rule lowers mean true candidate-selection CCE regret relative to ID-Mean, while retaining game-level losses. Across 384 games at $N=3,5,8$, ID-Mean-relative mean CCE-regret effects stay positive while certified return falls sharply under weak coverage. These results separate certifiable model selection from universal strategic improvement.

AI research agents combine public information and experimental feedback to produce measurable results. The Discovery Certification Protocol (DCP) turns an outcome claim into an executable audit under a registered model, information boundary, and budget. Gate 1 validates useful improvement. Gate 2 tests recovery by matched agents given the starting information and observed Web content, with run history and new measurements withheld. Core requires adequate registered controls, zero recoveries, and a finite-sample recovery bound. Optional Gate 3 compares truthful and neutral feedback from a shared checkpoint; Evidence adds a supported effect and a null-policy equivalence check. Controlled SQLite and virtual catalyst audits pass both decision kernels. On real-data response surfaces, Yacht and Ionosphere pass the Core kernel after zero recoveries in 96 attempts, with an upper bound of 0.0468. Each target combines ten observed utilities and six predictions into a 16-entry data product. Yacht scores 0.7677 on reconstruction of all 32 switch effects, with utility-prediction MAE 0.0315 on its six unmeasured configurations. Fresh truthful continuations recover the target level in 9/30 and 16/30 trials, respectively, separating achieved utility from process repeatability. A deterministic verifier reproduces these local decisions from frozen records.

Current LLM-based multi-agent systems (MAS) periodically compress intermediate states to reduce inference-time token consumption, thereby attempting to incorporate more agents. However, naive scaling strategies face challenges. For example, in economic simulations, large-scale MAS typically discard semantically rich economic states, i.e., agent behavioral trajectories, which are key drivers of macroeconomic fluctuations. In this paper, we reveal a phenomenon in which agent heterogeneity gradually decreases during simulation, and propose Prospect-State Propagation for Multi-Agent Systems (PspMAS). Inspired by prospect theory, PspMAS decouples each agent's micro state into a compact Prospect State and an expressive Semantic State. The former records psychological traces through a lightweight, parallelizable propagator and continuously injects heterogeneity into the system. The latter leverages the strong perception, reasoning, planning, and decision-making abilities of LLMs. These two components work complementarily, providing a scalable LLM-based multi-agent simulation solution.

Long-form narrative-to-film generation requires shot-level controllability and cross-clip consistency in both visual identity and character behavior-requirements that remain difficult to satisfy with current prompt-based workflows. A core reason existing workflows remain brittle is the lack of a structured intermediate layer between scripts and video models, especially when screenplays are underspecified at key cinematic decision points. We introduce a structured orchestration layer for film-oriented script-to-video generation, implemented as a multi-agent framework that operates between scripts and off-the-shelf video generators. The layer is centered on FilmDSL, a film-oriented domain-specific language that makes cinematic constraints explicit, including shot and camera directives, asset and continuity requirements, and persona cues, so that agents coordinate through a shared structured specification for planning, generation, critique, and repair. Specifically, a generation agent constructs asset packs and storyboard keyframes that anchor composition before clip-by-clip synthesis, while a critic agent produces structured QA signals and triggers targeted refinement without retraining the base model. Experiments on TV-style segments show improved controllability and consistency over text-only and reference-only baselines.

In electric delivery fleets, mid-shift charging is non-trivial: each vehicle must decide when, where and how much to charge to finish on time with battery above a safety floor. The choices are coupled: queues build where too many vehicles pick the same station. Prior work resolves this coupling with central dispatching, precomputed schedules or reservations, machinery that charging infrastructure rarely supports. Instead, we use a family of learning agents under purely local control: every vehicle runs the same policy, deciding alone from its time budgets and broadcast station occupancies, leading to emergent coordination without central control or messaging. We validate this paradigm in simulation on real OpenStreetMap networks of twenty cities, each with a frozen scenario calibrated by an omniscient Oracle (99.5% of shifts completed on time), whereas a naive greedy rule (nearest station on low battery) completes just 73%. Agents trained with neuroevolution (NEAT) and policy gradients (PPO) on four cities and deployed zero-shot across all twenty, sixteen never seen in training, complete 96.8% and 98.6% of shifts, with the policy-gradient controllers proving more robust when demand or vehicle characteristics drift beyond the trained regime. In contrast, tuned threshold heuristics that read vehicle urgency alone fall short in contended cities (~80%). Through training, these learning agents rediscover partial charging and short opportunistic sessions, and route around busy stations, cutting per-session queue waits from about 45 minutes to under 2. In summary, this coordination paradigm balances local urgency against public occupancy, reaching near-Oracle performance at minimal implementation cost.

Multi-agent LLM pipelines increasingly span organisational boundaries; when a fault surfaces, someone must determine where it entered. The artifact available is rarely a full execution trace: it is the reports each agent filed, and a filed report can state a conclusion alongside its observations. Using a pre-registered, institutionally partitioned pipeline of six agents with process-level information boundaries, balanced defect injection and matched clean twins (345,600 requests per chain model, two models), we first report that our pre-registered hypothesis – that collective responsibility framing degrades escalation with chain length – is not supported. The layer nevertheless fails asymmetrically. It originates almost nothing: zero allegations across 7,996 clean episodes where every agent stayed silent. It filters upstream error poorly, naming an innocent party in 34.4% and 62.6% of clean episodes where an agent raised a false alarm. Conditional on no agent proposing the true origin (59.5% of episodes on one chain model), an auditor reading the reports recovers it in 4.1% of cases – below a uniform guess (20%) and the best fixed-link accuser (31.0%) – while reaching 60.3% from the raw documentation of the same episodes. Deleting one clause, the field carrying the agents' own conclusion, isolates the cause at constant observations: accuracy rises to 45.2% (+41.2 pp, 95% CI +35.3 to +46.9) and adherence collapses from 94.4% to 3.4%; where the suggestion was correct the same deletion instead costs accuracy, 70.5% to 55.7%. The harm replicates on two frontier auditors in four conditions out of four (+8.5 to +39.0 pp) and in a second domain (+47.7 and +61.1 pp), where the cost disappears. The net effect is governed by upstream reliability together with both conditional magnitudes. An accountability layer needs evidence sufficiently independent of the conclusions it verifies.

Environments are increasingly populated by multiple robots performing independent tasks with limited prior knowledge of each other. Deploying such multi-agent systems presents significant challenges. Specifically, shifts in deployment states compared to training data can lead to poor policy performance and compromised safety. While safety shields exist to mitigate these risks, they are typically reactive, which degrades performance near unseen obstacles,and centralized, limiting their scalability. To address this, we propose a decentralized framework that integrates predictive shielding with model-based finite horizon Q-learning. This approach allows agents to safely adapt their pre-trained policies during deployment. Furthermore, to mitigate livelocks in symmetric scenarios, we introduce a communication- free protocol for conflict resolution

In decentralized decision-making, several agents connected according to a network graph aim at solving a classification problem by collecting streaming observations. Due to decentralization, they run an iterative algorithm where, at each iteration, they can only exchange information locally with their neighbors. While decentralized estimation solutions have been shown to match the performance of optimal centralized systems, we show here that surprisingly this conclusion does not hold for decentralized decision-making. Specifically, we prove that the error probability for the best decentralized decision strategy exhibits an irreducible loss with respect to the optimal centralized classifier. This result establishes a fundamental limit for the performance of any decentralized decision strategy. We obtain an analytical relation showing that this limit is related to the interplay between decentralization and classification. The first aspect appears through the distances between the nodes in the graph, while the second aspect plays through the moment generating functions of the likelihood ratios that describe the decision problem. By applying the derived closed-form relation to different network topologies and inference problems, we observe some interesting and perhaps unexpected behavior emerging. In particular, we characterize the scaling law (with the network size) for the loss over popular network topologies, showing that the error probabilities might differ by orders of magnitude; and we examine how performance is affected by the relative distance between informative and uninformative agents over the graph.

Quantum game theory is an extension of classical game theory that uses quantum principles in game theory. The Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein (EWL) quantum game is an early example of the two-player classical Prisoner's Dilemma transformed into a quantum Prisoner's Dilemma. In the EWL game, the players choose pure quantum strategies represented by unitary matrices. This extension can resolve the classical dilemma by enabling cooperative equilibrium with higher payoff. In this paper, we first discuss the Extended EWL (EEWL) for multiplayer quantum games with mixed strategies. In EEWL, each player controls a set of unitary operators as quantum actions and uses a classical mixed strategy over these actions. The payoffs are defined as expectation values of Hermitian reward operators acting on a shared quantum state, which is generated and measured according to the EEWL protocol. We then propose the Unitary Strategy Matrix Exponential Algorithm (USMEA), a geometry-aware sequential algorithm for the EEWL mixed-strategy setting, in which each player jointly learns a trainable set of local unitary actions and the associated classical mixing probabilities. Thereby it acts as a learning-and-control layer for multi-agent quantum decision systems. We analyze the convergence properties of USMEA under standard smoothness and step-size conditions and validate the theory with numerical experiments. These results show how classical optimization methods can be systematically integrated into the design and analysis of engineered quantum strategic interactions.

Climate change is increasing the severity and unpredictability of natural disasters. In time-critical crises such as wildfires, traditional monitoring practices remain limited by coverage, cost, and personnel risk, paving the way for autonomous and adaptive monitoring solutions. Within this context, this paper introduces D3ARC, an asynchronous distributed hierarchical framework for time-aware and reliable wildfire detection. D3ARC integrates multiple robotic agents that cooperate under uncertainty through distributed perception, shared situational awareness and coordinated actions. A remote controller asynchronously decides upon each robot's motion, while each robotic agent senses the environment and decides where and how to execute the wildfire detection. All robotic operations require time, and as time progresses, wildfires continue to spread, reducing the opportunity for early intervention. As such, all agents share a common objective: to detect a wildfire with a certain performance threshold as fast as possible and within a time limit. D3ARC integrates mechanisms for safe navigation, coverage efficiency, cooperation and reliability. It introduces a forward-looking capability that allows agents to anticipate the future by evaluating candidate strategies before execution. The framework is evaluated through realistic robotics simulations, ablation studies, and baseline comparisons, achieving an overall mission success up to 94% with 89.4% detection confidence.

Local pedestrian-vehicle forecasting spans heterogeneous physical scales: pedestrians combine root locomotion with articulated motion, whereas vehicles are rigid bodies described by kinematic state and oriented extent. Existing road-agent forecasters typically omit pedestrian articulation, while pose forecasters leave vehicle futures outside the learned rollout. We introduce PV-WM, a history-only world model over structured post-perception tracks. It recurrently advances pedestrian root motion, 15-joint articulation, and learned vehicle states within a synchronized heterogeneous state. The generated pedestrian and vehicle chunks supply the next recurrent boundary; vehicle boxes are reconstructed from predicted center and heading with observed extent, and P-V geometry is recomputed after every transition. Relative to a matched one-shot complete-state predictor, recurrent execution reduces Root ADE by 12.7% and MPJPE by 14.8%. Feedback interventions show that later predictions depend on the content, temporal order, and pedestrian identity of generated articulation. Across 824 aligned Waymo contexts, with 797 providing valid future vehicle support, PV-WM reduces Root ADE by 5.2%, MPJPE by 7.6%, P-V distance error by 11.9%, and oriented-box closest-approach error by 5.8% relative to a validation-selected Modular Specialist. The single-network model uses 57.1% fewer parameters, 96.5% lower average FLOPs per local scene, and 25.5% lower measured p95 latency. PV-WM unifies this heterogeneous future state while preserving type-specific pedestrian and vehicle dynamics.

Generalized Nash Equilibrium Problems (GNEPs) often arise in multi-agent engineering applications that require distributed algorithms. Unlike traditional approaches that enforce consensus on multipliers, our method removes the need to share multipliers, reducing communication and improving privacy. As a result, different initializations can lead to different GNEs, including non-variational ones. We establish convergence under sufficient conditions using an input-to-state stability (ISS) framework.

Forecasting karst aquifer dynamics is difficult because recharge responses are nonlinear, event-driven, and governed by strongly heterogeneous flow paths. This study develops and evaluates a deployment-aware framework for 1-12-week-ahead prediction of spring discharge and groundwater level using approximately 79 years of hydroclimatic observations from the Edwards Aquifer, Texas. Five model families were compared under a common temporal evaluation design: extreme gradient boosting, extremely randomized trees, long short-term memory, convolutional neural networks, and Transformers. Predictions were evaluated using coefficient of determination, Kling-Gupta efficiency, root-mean-square error, and agreement with operational drought thresholds. Extreme gradient boosting was consistently most reliable, with R2 at least 0.97, 0.96, and 0.94 across 1-4-, 5-8-, and 9-12-week horizons, respectively, and greater than 90% critical-stage agreement at the first three drought stages across all horizons. Deep models were competitive at short horizons but degraded progressively and exhibited isolated failures at longer lead times. We attribute this contrast to an alignment between tree partitioning and low-dimensional, axis-aligned hydroclimatic predictors, together with the tendency of neural models to smooth irregular extremes. The validated models were embedded in a five-agent operational architecture that automates data acquisition, model assignment, deterministic prediction, threshold monitoring, prospective verification, literature retrieval, and reporting. The contribution is therefore a transferable framework joining parsimonious model selection, leakage-aware multi-horizon evaluation, decision-relevant threshold skill, and auditable agentic automation.

LLM agents are increasingly used for collaborative problem solving and human-group simulation. This makes outcome-only evaluation insufficient: if LLM groups are used as models of human groups, we need to know whether they succeed or fail through human-like deliberative mechanisms. We compare human group chats with matched LLM deliberation traces on Wason-style deductive reasoning, then test whether the same process signatures generalize to analogical, abductive, and analytical tasks. Humans and LLMs show the same assembly bonus asymmetry: discussion improves the average member more often than the best initial member. Initial-answer diversity accounts for the effect of model heterogeneity, increasing movement in both corrective and destructive directions. The main differences are process-level. Compared with humans, LLM groups follow majorities more often, surface less unique information, and converge earlier; correct minority signals succeed mainly when re-expressed early. Interventions motivated by human group-decision research yield modest improvements in collective outcomes, but do not remove the coordination bottleneck. Together, these results suggest that LLM groups can reproduce some outcome-level patterns of human deliberation while diverging in the mechanisms that generate assembly bonus and process loss, with implications for group simulation and human-AI collaboration.

A shared reward gives agents a common objective, but leaves open when, how and even whether they must cooperate to succeed. We address these questions in the Laser Learning Environment, a multi-agent path-finding environment where cooperation materializes as one agent blocking a laser to let a teammate pass safely. We represent these interactions through temporal cooperation graphs whose timed edges connect helpers to beneficiaries, define six cooperation profiles as overlapping graph predicates, and prove that every cooperative trajectory satisfies at least one. By encoding the environment dynamics and profile predicates as propositional formulae, we distinguish tasks that admit}a profile in some winning trajectory from those that require it in every winning trajectory within a specified horizon. Used as filters, these queries turn a random layout sampler into a generator of tasks with certified cooperation requirements. Experiments with five multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms show that training diversity improves joint success on unseen tasks when cooperation-free solutions exist. When cooperation is required, greater diversity improves individual-agent exits, but joint success remains near zero. Across five profile-certified pools, final exit rates averaged over algorithms separate the pools into four statistically distinguishable levels but this ordering primarily reflects partial completion: policies collect rewards for individual exits but rarely exhibit the profile required for joint success. Our framework exposes this gap between rewarded partial completion and realized cooperation by certifying what cooperation successful completion requires and using temporal cooperation graphs to reveal what policies exhibit.

Agentic systems require secure and efficient delegation of privileges across multiple collaborating agents. Existing approaches fall into two categories. Some propagate user identities directly to agents, obscuring accountability and creating persistent over-privilege risks that are amplified by the non-deterministic behaviour of AI agents. Others rely on continuous synchronization with a central Identity and Access Management (IAM) provider, introducing additional latency and communication overhead. We present CAPMAS, a novel architecture for secure end-to-end query execution in multi-agent systems. CAPMAS newly combines a contrastive learning-based semantic scoping pipeline that maps natural-language queries to bounded privilege sets before execution with expressive Macaroon-based tokens that enable offline, tamper-evident delegation with monotonic privilege reduction across agents. By decoupling authentication and delegation enforcement from agent reasoning, CAPMAS enables practical agentic execution while enforcing strict least-privilege guarantees. By eliminating synchronous delegation exchanges with the IAM, CAPMAS yields 30 times faster delegation operations, 2 times less delegation-oriented latency and up to 3 times lower bandwidth usage than the OAuth 2.0 Token Exchange (RFC 8693). Its semantic scoping pipeline achieves over 90% perfect privilege-bundle retrieval within 17 milliseconds on enterprise-scale API schemas containing over 3,100 endpoints, while reducing unnecessary privileges by 99.5% when compared to systems that propagate all the user's privileges to agents.

In this paper, we consider the problem of regulating and maintaining a target formation characterized by a set of bidirectional bearing constraints under disturbances. The agents in the formation are modeled by single integrators with bounded continuous disturbances of which the upper bound is unavailable for the control design. Due to the time-varying disturbances, the target formation is time-varying. We propose adaptive sliding mode control laws to uniformly globally asymptotically stabilizes the moving target formation and reject the matched disturbances. In addition, to alleviate chattering phenomena from sliding mode control, smooth adaptive control laws are then designed to guarantee uniform global boundedness of the desired formation. Finally, simulation results are given to support the analysis.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning in networked populations is governed by the interaction between individual adaptation, local encounters, and changing environmental conditions. To study this interaction, we formulate a coupled learning–environment model in which agents update stateless $Q$-values on a fixed graph, while their population-average behavior drives an environmental variable that dynamically modifies the payoff matrix. Under a first-order mean-field closure, we derive a deterministic transport equation for the population distribution of $Q$-values and couple it with a projected discrete update for the environmental state. The resulting model is evaluated against finite-network Monte Carlo simulations on random regular, Erdős–Rényi, Barabási–Albert, and random geometric graphs. Across the tested parameter ranges, the mean-field system reproduces the main macroscopic cooperation and environmental trajectories, and the trajectory-level root-mean-square error generally decreases with population size and average degree. The analysis further shows that environmental feedback reshapes the learned action-value ordering, while reinforcing feedback can produce pronounced dependence on the initial learning bias and resource level. The environmental timescale also plays an important role: a rapid response can drive the resource state to a boundary before learning adapts, whereas a slower response preserves the interaction between behavioral learning and environmental recovery. These results provide a population-level description of coupled reinforcement learning and environmental dynamics and characterize the performance of the mean-field approximation within the tested network and parameter ranges.

Bundle length B is commonly fixed when configuring multi-task multi-robot task allocation (MRTA) algorithms. MinSum and MinMax are known to favor different task distributions, but the role of B in this objective tradeoff has not been systematically characterized. Additionally, degraded-communication evaluations also often retain settings selected under ideal communication, leaving whether nominal bundle-length tuning transfers under message loss unresolved. We examine both questions for ACBBA, PI, and HIPC across six bundle lengths in 300 paired ten-target Collaborative Visit scenarios under ideal communication and 25% Bernoulli packet loss. Under ideal communication, increasing B from 1 to 12 reduces MinSum cost by 19.0%, 23.0%, and 31.8% for ACBBA, PI, and HIPC, respectively, while increasing MinMax cost by 45.6%, 94.3%, and 67.6%. Under packet loss, the lowest-mean MinSum setting shifts from B = 12 to B = 2 for ACBBA and PI. Repeated paired cross-fitting shows that retaining the ideal-network setting incurs held-out MinSum penalties of 14.4% and 7.2%, respectively, and increases MinMax cost by 30.0% and 41.8% relative to the loss-conditioned MinSum setting. HIPC retains a deep MinSum operating region, while the MinMax setting remains stable for all three allocators. Experiments at two additional target loads reproduce the ACBBA and PI MinSum shifts.

Agents can turn shared infrastructure into a channel for coordinated intrusion. The Hugging Face incident and a separate public-wiki investigation show why a security assessment may need evidence from several executions and the artifacts they leave behind. We argue that the operational unit of defence should be a revisable coordination episode linking observed transfers, task authority, and response history. The central research problem is prospective episode discovery: finding which actions belong together before an evaluator supplies their membership. We define unsanctioned coordination relative to collaboration and delegated-authority policy, connect storage-mediated coordination to stigmergy, and specify the evidence needed to distinguish influence from common causes. First-contact signals are one possible input to discovery; the design also follows inherited state and later use. A proposed evaluation compares isolated actions, rolling windows, known groups, and prospectively discovered episodes at matched review cost and false-alert workload. It measures harmful outcomes across all assigned population runs and tests recurrence after channel closure and state quarantine. A checksum-verified reconstruction of the public wiki export separates the decline in retained writes from later administrative cleanup. The contribution is an incident-grounded position, descriptive analysis, and evaluation design. It makes the recommendation to monitor across executions testable without claiming a new detector or a measured containment benefit.

Calibrating an agent-based model (ABM) is difficult because its objective landscape is stochastic and rugged, and can be evaluated only through costly black-box simulations. This study adapts inner-loop surrogate-assisted evolutionary computation (SAEC) to ABM calibration by embedding a machine-learning surrogate within genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimisation (PSO). At each iteration, the surrogate screens the candidates and the simulator validates only the top 50%, reducing simulation demand while correcting surrogate errors. We evaluate a full factorial of 48 configurations combining two optimisers, five surrogates, and four calibration objectives on two contrasting ABMs, the Brock-Hommes asset-pricing model and the Island growth model. Parameter recovery is measured against pseudo-true values. Relative to the strongest pure-optimiser baseline, the best ML-assisted configurations reduce RMSE by 20.0% on Brock-Hommes and 63.8% on Island, while reducing computation time by 32.1% and 61.1%, respectively. ANOVA with Dunnett's post-hoc tests confirms significant time savings for every surrogate under both Brock-Hommes optimisers and under GA on Island. No surrogate differs significantly from the pure-optimiser baseline in parameter-recovery accuracy on Island; the reported accuracy gains are therefore best-configuration outcomes rather than average effects resolved at this sample size. The best surrogate-optimiser-objective combination changes with ABM complexity, indicating that surrogate-assisted calibration depends on the model and does not admit a universal default recipe.

Autonomous unmanned vehicles are vital to tactical missions, mission-critical public-safety operations like search and rescue and disaster response. However, their reliance on open wireless links and standard Robot Operating System (ROS 2) middleware exposes a broad cyber-physical attack surface. A compromise of these systems can disrupt real-time control loops, leading to mission failure or asset loss in high-stakes environments. This paper presents and empirically evaluates a layered, context-aware cybersecurity framework enforcing Zero-Trust principles for a multi-node robotic fleet over Wi-Fi. The framework integrates an active hardware root of trust (TPM 2.0), centralized in-band and out-of-band SIEM telemetry monitoring (ELK Stack and Kismet), and a non-cryptographic Inter-Packet Delay (IPD) timing watermark. Evaluated on a live ROS 2 mobile testbed under multi-layer exploits (OSI Layers 2-5), results demonstrate that while volume-based filters isolate brute denial-of-service floods, tracking the statistical sample kurtosis (K) of the embedded IPD watermark exposes stealthy Man-in-the-Middle command injections with complete detection accuracy without payload overheads.

Traffic analysts must translate diagnosed bottlenecks into executable interventions without allowing local improvements to degrade network-wide performance. This study presents SimTIO, a simulation-grounded multi-agent large language model framework for composing and selecting traffic interventions under explicit operational constraints. SimTIO first simulates an unmodified SUMO scenario to identify a baseline-frozen set of ten bottleneck edges. A grounded sampler then initializes signal-control, corridor-speed, and demand-preserving routing actions, while three specialist agents use measured simulation feedback to select one-parameter refinements from validator-confirmed mutation catalogs. Compatible actions are combined and re-simulated so that their interaction effects are measured rather than inferred. Final selection minimizes bottleneck time loss while constraining network-wide delay, neighboring-road spillover, throughput loss, and teleport events, with the unmodified scenario retained as a no-operation guard. Across 15 cases covering five U.S. urban networks, three synthetic-demand seeds, and 2,400 origin-destination trips per scenario, SimTIO reduced Top-10 bottleneck time loss by an average of 9.18 percent and network-wide delay by 2.78 percent. It found a feasible improving plan in 86.7 percent of cases, compared with 73.3 percent for grounded random search and 80.0 percent for a deterministic heuristic under the same seven-simulation budget, although the differences in Top-10 improvement were not statistically significant. These results support using LLMs as constrained, feedback-guided local search operators while reserving final decision authority for executable tools, microscopic simulation, and explicit safety constraints.

The operational integrity of autonomous mobile robots relies on the continuous availability of wireless control loops, making them highly attractive targets for adversarial intentional electromagnetic interference. This paper introduces a resilient, cross-layer framework that combines physical-layer spectral perception with network-layer routing optimization to protect middleware stability, such as ROS2, during intentional electromagnetic interference. Utilizing a software-defined radio front-end, the system extracts dynamic spectral descriptors, including spectral entropy and channel occupancy, to inform a Random Forest classifier that establishes adaptive environmental baselines. To ensure uninterrupted data flow, the architecture maintains dual pre-authenticated physical interfaces in a hot-standby configuration, enabling instantaneous failover through automated network routing table updates. Empirical validation on a physical ROS2 mobile robot testbed demonstrates that this adaptive hardware-assisted architecture optimizes communication recovery to an average of 141ms. This sub-second restoration translates directly into a 78.9% reduction in pooled root-mean-square path tracking error compared to software re-association, successfully securing system-level mission integrity.

Aggregating heterogeneous vision-language models (VLMs) can improve multimodal reasoning, but neither an individual model's confidence nor that of the aggregated answer measures reliability at the system level. We present CUSP (Collective Uncertainty through Semantic Opinion Pooling), a training-free uncertainty quantification framework that maps multiple VLM responses to a shared semantic response space, pools them into a pooled semantic opinion, and reports two complementary system-level signals: collective uncertainty, the dispersion of the pooled opinion, and Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD), the conflict among the model-level opinions. Within this pooled semantic opinion, the unnormalized collective entropy decomposes exactly into the mean of the models' individual semantic entropies and the JSD, separating total dispersion from model conflict. Requiring neither token logits nor calibration labels, CUSP applies to open-weight and commercial VLMs alike. In static multi-VLM ensembles, collective uncertainty is the strongest signal in the small-model regime (0.764 AUROC for prediction-error detection, 0.889 AUARC for abstention), outperforming uncertainty baselines majority voting and naive selection by 4.7 to 15.8 points and widening its margin as the ensemble grows; JSD is strongest in the evaluated commercial regime (0.819 AUROC, 0.910 AUARC) and ranks hard-answer model conflict with AUROC up to 0.982. The pooled prediction also improves accuracy over the average single model by 5.6 to 13.0 points. Over the full trajectory of a multi-step, multi-agent system, subagent collective uncertainty ranks system failures above chance (0.619 AUROC) and gives the best abstention ordering among the evaluated signals (0.699 AUARC).

We present a continuous, population-scale measurement record of autonomous language-model trading agents operating in production across two systems with one design lineage: DX Terminal Pro (3,505 user-funded vaults trading real ETH in Base memecoin markets for 21 days, February to March 2026) and the DXAP live alpha fleet (500 to 599 user-created agents all-history, 91 to 117 concurrently active, trading Hyperliquid perpetuals, June to August 2026). The record spans roughly six months, 7.5M single-model invocations with about 300K onchain actions, and a further 231,638 multi-tool turns producing 14,596 fills. Four findings carry the paper. First, the operating layer determines behavior more than anything written in strategy text: a risk slider explains leverage (+0.425 per level), agent fixed effects absorb 60% of variance, and a leaderboard render boundary causally routes selection (regression discontinuity 1.75x at the top-3 cut). Second, sizing is volatility-blind: median leverage is 5.0x in every volatility sextile, and one posture-slider cell (11% of the book) holds 62% of liquidations. Third, agents capture almost none of the upside they reach: 43.2% of positions saw at least +300 bps of favorable excursion within 24h, yet 49.3% of those closed with a negative trade return; a mechanical bracket recovers +39.0 bps per position. Fourth, neither fleet shows a directional edge. The DXAP fleet is not profitable and trails a matched Hyperliquid retail benchmark (41% vs. 50% roundtrip win rate). A paired-replay league of frontier models on 416 captured production scenarios finds decision quality statistically indistinguishable at this horizon, while choice stability differs sharply across model families. Every headline survives day-clustered inference, permutation nulls, and a common-fee restatement; the paper closes with a 17-rule methodology canon bought with our own retractions.

Disease spread represents an increasing challenge in refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements. The movement and interaction of people within camps is influenced by their layout, which therefore has the potential to significantly affect disease spread. This work aims at creating a methodology to explore the potential effects of different camp layouts as mitigating factors in the spread of diseases within settlements. We showcase proof-of-concept experiments by leveraging the JUNE agent-based epidemic model, discuss the kind of operational insights this methodology can facilitate, and provide a framework for future investigations.