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Tuesday 6 October

Machine Learning

Generalized Matheron Variational Implicit Processes

Implicit-process priors specify distributions over functions through sample-forward mechanisms such as Bayesian neural networks and stochastic simulators, but their function-space densities are typically unavailable. We introduce Generalized Matheron Variational Implicit Processes (GMVIP), a pathwise variational family for posterior inference with such priors. For Gaussian-process priors, GMVIP recovers the standard inducing-variable variational GP construction; for general implicit priors, its empirical covariance construction preserves the prior mean and covariance in the population limit. GMVIP constructs posterior samples by drawing a function from the prior and applying a correction anchored at a set of inducing inputs. The effect of this correction away from the inducing inputs is determined directly from prior samples, allowing the posterior to retain the structure and variability of the original implicit process. The (surrogate) prior and variational posterior use the same pathwise construction and differ only in the distribution of whitened inducing coefficients, yielding a tractable coefficient-space Kullback-Leibler divergence. Experiments on regression, classification, and forecasting with simulator-defined and retrieval-conditioned empirical trajectory priors show that GMVIP is broadly competitive with existing methods.
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Machine Learning

Revisiting Temporal Regularization for Smooth Control in Deep Reinforcement Learning

Deep Reinforcement Learning policies can produce nonsmooth action oscillations that hinder deployment on physical robots. Existing architectural and penalty-based approaches seek spatial smoothness by directly reducing sensitivity to changes in state inputs, but their broad constraints can degrade task performance as stronger smoothing is pursued. Temporal regularization instead constrains action differences along observed transitions, but has been considered unable to provide the spatial smoothness needed under observation noise. We revisit this assumption by proving that the temporal penalty bounds the expected action differences between current states sharing a next state, revealing a spatial effect that empirically extends to spatial smoothness. Building on this finding, we propose Conditioning for Action using only Temporal Smoothness (CATS), which combines a temporal penalty with linear ramp-up. We highlight temporal regularization's ability to provide spatial smoothness while better preserving task performance than explicit spatial regularization. Through linear ramp-up, CATS allows the policy to learn rewarding behavior before progressively smoothing its actions, improving return preservation and both temporal and spatial smoothness. Experiments in both simulation and the real world show that CATS substantially reduces action oscillation without degrading task performance, with little computational overhead.
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All authors SungJae Ahn, Jeong Woon Lee, Kyoleen Kwak, Hyoseok Hwang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Isotropic Yet Undecodable: The Sequential Content-Sufficiency Gap in Latent-Predictive Text Representations

We study sequential content sufficiency by investigating whether a representation retains the ordered target information available in its input. An information-theoretic decomposition separates input ambiguity, representation loss, and readout mismatch. We construct recoverable views where perfect agreement and joint isotropic Gaussianity coexist with zero target information, and establish limits imposed by deterministic canonical anchors. Token log-loss provides a one-sided information-loss bound; a fixed-penalty ridge analysis shows why rank alone cannot determine prediction risk. These results motivate CANOPE, a nonautoregressive framework with ordered latent canvases, canonical-token supervision, and geometric regularization. On 40,000 validation sequences, latent-agreement (PL0) and token-grounded (PL2) have nearly identical pooled ranks but reach 13.5% and 98.8% positional Recall@1, respectively, under strong natural corruption when the correct target length is provided. On 3,930 LJSpeech validation utterances, frozen PL2 with a trained MatchaTTS readout yields 21.54% word error rate (WER) on corrupted text, versus 99.22% for frozen PL0, while end-to-end MatchaTTS reaches 10.93%. These results show that geometric regularity alone does not guarantee recoverable sequential content or effective downstream access in the text settings studied here.
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All authors K. P. Santoso, N. Z. Fadil, F. P. Harsanti, R. V. H. Ginardi, G. N. Iyer

Machine Learning

ApexQuant: Data-Free Elastic Quantization by Residual Re-Isotropization

We introduce ApexQuant, a calibration-free quantization method that recursively re-quantizes the residual error, serving as a refinement layer on top of existing quantizers. We establish that a fresh random rotation returns each residual to the uniform distribution on the hypersphere, which characterizes the rate of progressive error decay across successive passes. This result lets us determine, before any weight is read, how many passes a layer needs for a target weight-space error. Every prefix is itself a valid lower-rate model, so one artifact serves several precisions. We instantiate ApexQuant with three interchangeable stages, scalar, $E_8$ and trellis, and validate it on four open-weight LLMs and on Earth-observation and medical domains where in-distribution data is often unattainable as imagery arrives under restrictive licences or due to patient material under privacy constraints. Progressive re-isotropization comes within a few percent of full precision at four bits and gives the best two-bit arm we measure, in a completely data-free setting.
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Machine Learning

Variance-Averse $n$-Step Offline Reinforcement Learning for Sparse Long-Horizon Environments

Generative actors are transforming offline reinforcement learning (RL) by enabling expressive policy classes that model complex action distributions. However, this expressiveness also exposes a key challenge in heterogeneous datasets: generative policies can reproduce unreliable action modes whose return distributions exhibit high variance, occasionally yielding high returns by chance but lacking consistency. Consequently, maximizing the expected $Q$-value alone is insufficient for identifying reliable actions. We propose VAN-Flow (Variance-Averse $n$-step Flow), a framework that promotes reliable actions in generative offline RL. VAN-Flow combines (i) a categorical distributional critic, (ii) a variance-averse expectation operator that smoothly reweights atom probabilities to favor actions with both high returns and low dispersion, and (iii) a flow-matching generative actor guided via rejection sampling. Unlike CVaR or mean-variance objectives, the operator redistributes probability mass over the categorical return distribution without hard truncation or auxiliary penalty terms. Across more than 40 tasks from D4RL and OGBench, VAN-Flow consistently outperforms strong baselines, with the largest gains in long-horizon and high-variance regimes where reliable action selection becomes critical.
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Machine Learning

FC-SWE: Failure-Conditioned RL for Long-Horizon Software Engineering Agents

Repository-level software engineering (SWE) is a challenging long-horizon setting: agents must reason over extended interactions, use tools, and adapt to stateful environments. Recent work trains SWE agents with reinforcement learning methods such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), which independently sample multiple trajectories per issue, test the resulting patches, and compare terminal rewards within a fixed group. However, this training setup does not reuse verifier feedback from failed patches as context for subsequent attempts, even though this feedback contains valuable diagnostic information about what went wrong. Training on recovery trajectories is challenging because the preceding outcome determines whether the next trajectory is generated, while the failed execution determines its conditioning context. We introduce FC-SWE, a failure-conditioned RL framework that incorporates recovery attempts into policy training. After a patch fails verification, FC-SWE restores the repository to its original task state and uses the failed patch and verifier feedback as context for a recovery trajectory. FC-SWE adapts GRPO to these chains of complete, multi-turn tool-use trajectories through two mechanisms. Trajectory-local rewards preserve each attempt's verifier outcome, preventing recovery success from rewarding an earlier failed patch. Active-set advantage estimation forms a comparison group from all initial and recovery trajectories actually executed for the same issue, so failed attempts remain in the group while unexecuted attempts are excluded. On all 500 SWE-bench Verified tasks under a verifier-assisted protocol, FC-SWE with Qwen3.5-4B and SWE-agent achieves 41.7% Resolved@1 and 52.8% Resolved@2, compared with 38.9% and 48.5% for GRPO. Although trained with at most two attempts per chain, FC-SWE reaches 70.7% Resolved@11 under an eleven-attempt test-time budget.
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All authors Jia Liufu, Bin Hu, Linglin Jing, Terry Kong, Yuki Huang, Ashwath Aithal, Wenming Yang, Jun Yang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Rethinking Faithfulness in LLMs: A Pairwise Context-Sensitive Perspective

Large language models (LLMs) are expected to answer questions faithfully based on the provided context, abstaining when the context information is insufficient to answer the questions. Existing faithfulness evaluations typically assess each question-context instance in isolation; however, such instance-level evaluation fails to capture a fundamental requirement of faithful behavior: the ability to adapt model responses to changes in available contexts. In particular, a model should provide correct answers when sufficient evidence is present and abstain when it is not. In this work, we propose a Pairwise Faithfulness Benchmark (PFaithBench) that evaluates whether a model can switch between answering and abstaining for the same question under supporting versus non-supporting contexts. Our evaluations across thirty-nine models with seven model families demonstrate that faithfulness fundamentally involves a trade-off between answering and abstaining, and that most current models exhibit a strong bias toward answering, with most faithfulness errors arising from over-answering, i.e., models tend to fabricate a response even when the provided context is insufficient. We further conduct a series of studies on faithfulness training under different data constructions. Our results show that training outcomes are highly sensitive to the specific composition of answering and abstaining data. Constructing answering and abstaining data from mismatched sources can cause models to rely on dataset-specific shortcuts rather than actual context sufficiency. Moreover, increasing answer-supervised data improves answering performance but exacerbates over-answering, while increasing abstaining data reduces hallucination but leads to over-abstention. The code and data are released at https://github.com/tmlr-group/PFaithBench.
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All authors Zizhuo Zhang, Xiong Peng, Jingwei Sun, Rong Yao, Borui Jiang, Bo Han

Machine Learning

Label-Efficient Deep Learning for ECG Delineation: A Multi-Dataset Benchmark against Widely Used Delineation Tools

Electrocardiogram (ECG) delineation, the identification of waveform boundaries, is a foundational step that translates raw ECG signals into clinically interpretable measurements. Deep learning has advanced this task but remains dependent on costly expert annotations. Label-efficient strategies such as self-supervised pretraining and semi-supervised learning are expected to ease this burden, yet it remains unclear whether they yield reliable delineation and whether the deep models they produce outperform the delineation tools used in practice. We address this in two stages. First, comparing self-supervised objectives with supervised or semi-supervised fine-tuning across one internal and four external datasets, we find that pretraining helps but the objective matters, and that the value of semi-supervised fine-tuning depends on the pretraining objective. Second, we benchmark the selected deep learning model against widely used open-source (NeuroKit2, Prominence, ECGdeli) and commercial (CalECG) tools using three complementary metrics. The model ranks best on every metric and dataset, outperforming the strongest tool by a clear margin on the rhythm-diverse set (mIoU 71.3 vs. 54.8%; averaged point-wise sensitivity 92.6 vs. 76.4%), and degrades the least from sinus to arrhythmia. A rhythm-stratified and point-wise analysis further characterizes the distinctive behavior of each tool, yielding practical guidance for tool selection. These results provide systematic, multi-dataset evidence that self-supervised pretraining is effective for ECG delineation and enables a label-efficiently trained deep learning model to outperform widely used delineation tools by leveraging abundant unlabeled data. This supports adopting such models in diverse, real-world clinical settings.
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All authors Jeonghwa Lim, Minje Park, Yeongyeon Na, Yujin Eom, Soyeon Lim, Young Ho Lee, Yu Jeong Kim, Sunghoon Joo, Ki Hong Lee

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.NA

Learned Adaptive Multiresolution Diffusion Imaging

Adaptive multiresolution methods reduce representation cost by concentrating fine-scale degrees of freedom where needed, but their tree updates are usually governed by fixed local criteria. We introduce Learned Adaptive Multiresolution Diffusion Imaging (Learned AMDI), which preserves the AMDI fixed-tree propagator and hierarchy constraints while replacing the post-propagation selector with a shared local policy trained by proximal policy optimization. Regression tests reproduce deterministic AMDI trajectories to machine precision when identical trees are used. In the Haar implementation studied here, the deterministic one-step selector accepts no refinements in 54 decisions. Across nine held-out cases, Learned AMDI executes 393 refinements and reduces the mean terminal reference discrepancy from $0.17496$ to $0.13657$, while occupancy rises from $0.13737$ to $0.26660$. Step-resolved diagnostics reveal occasional small adaptation-energy increases; fixed-tree energy stability therefore does not guarantee monotonicity of the learned outer iteration. At comparable occupancy, a validation-tuned observed-detail threshold reaches a discrepancy of $0.13792$ with slightly better RMSE and SSIM, placing both methods on essentially the same accuracy–occupancy tradeoff. A decision-1-only control reaches $0.13742$, indicating that most of the improvement on this static benchmark arises from the initial allocation. The shared actor transfers without retraining to $64\times64$ and $128\times128$ images, improving reference discrepancy, RMSE, and SSIM relative to deterministic AMDI, while the frozen threshold rule remains competitive. Learned AMDI thus provides a hierarchy-constrained, resolution-transferable mechanism for adaptive allocation and clarifies the contribution of sequential decisions.
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All authors Christian Tantardini, Stig Rune Jensen, Roberto Di Remigio Eikås, Joakim Henrik Beck

Machine Learning

On-Policy Distillation with Negative-Policy Rollouts

On-policy distillation (OPD) has been widely studied as a post-training method in which a student model obtains token-level supervision from a stronger teacher on its own rollouts. Recent studies have improved OPD through alternative distillation reward formulations and teacher configurations, while the objective of distillation remains centered on mimicking the teacher. However, when a stronger teacher has limited distributional overlap with the student, such positive guidance can provide insufficient learning signals. In this work, we introduce Negative-Policy OPD (NP-OPD), which complements teacher supervision with rollouts from a lower-performing, lower-capability negative policy that serves as a negative reference for the student. Rather than modifying the distillation reward formulation, NP-OPD introduces the negative policy at the rollout stage, continuously supplying tokens preferred by the negative policy over the teacher so that they remain exposed to teacher supervision throughout training. This provides an explicit negative signal through negative-policy rollouts while preserving the positive teacher supervision used in OPD. Through extensive experiments, we show that NP-OPD improves OPD across model scales, generation modes, reasoning domains, and different OPD variants. Furthermore, our analyses show that NP-OPD effectively suppresses tokens preferred by the negative policy over the teacher and moves the student away from the negative policy. These results support our design of introducing negative signals through negative-policy rollouts and provide new insight into the role of the rollout policy in OPD. Code will be available at https://github.com/naver-ai/np-opd.
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All authors Jaehui Hwang, Dongyoon Han, Sangdoo Yun, Byeongho Heo

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

ReFold: Training-Free Reversible Inter-Turn Context Folding for Long-Horizon Agents

Long-horizon LLM agents act on an append-only interaction history that is re-sent to the model at every step, so the context and its cost grow with steps until the sessions exceed the context window. Existing methods manage the context through context requirement prediction, relying on additional model calls, heuristic rules, or trained policies. However, these predictive approaches introduce runtime overhead, invalidate prefix caches, and permanently discard content with no guarantee of recovery. To overcome these limitations, we introduce ReFold: a training-free rendering layer that preserves the underlying interaction history while compressing only the model's rendered context. It removes two kinds of inter-turn redundancy without an auxiliary predictor: content an earlier turn already displayed, replaced by a stub, and turns the agent itself reports finished, folded into a one-line note. Both operators use chunked rendering, rewriting the cached prefix once every few steps rather than at every step. Every removal is strictly reversible, a wrong removal costs one restore from the history rather than permanent content loss. Because it operates at the rendering layer, ReFold is plug-and-play across standard ReAct-style harnesses. Evaluations across five long-horizon benchmarks and two frontier LLMs demonstrate that ReFold reduces token consumption by up to 2.5x and halves the KV-cache memory per session without degrading task success rates. Under capped context budgets, it avoids up to 92% of forced compactions. Under concurrent serving workloads, it reduces request queuing delays by up to 100%, accelerating inference by up to 1.7x, while cutting inference costs by up to 3.4x.
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All authors Yupeng Su, Jiayi Tian, Zheng Zhang, Souvik Kundu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cond-mat.mtrl-sci

A self-learning scientific agent for X-ray diffraction

A central challenge for scientific agents is to turn analytical experience into reusable expertise grounded in physical evidence. Here we introduce Gan Jiang, a self-learning agent for powder X-ray diffraction built on a diffraction-analysis ecosystem we developed: XMatcher, XQueryer, XDecomposer and WPEM. Together, these engines span phase identification, multiphase decomposition and physics-constrained whole-pattern modelling. Gan Jiang converts analytical experience into executable skills by diagnosing failures, revising skill instructions and code, and validating revisions before reuse, without retraining the language model or changing the underlying physical models. Skills selected using development data and frozen before held-out evaluation achieve higher refinement scores than the original expert-designed skills across FullProf, GSAS-II and PyWPEM. The agent resolves strongly overlapping reflections, quantifies a five-phase ancient Egyptian cosmetic, tracks lattice evolution in an operating battery and compares atomic configurations in a disordered oxide catalyst. On DeltaXRDbench, it leads the evaluated methods in single- and multiphase identification across simulated and experimental data. Without supplied composition, single-phase top-1 accuracies reach 96.30%, 81.78% and 40.83% on MP500, RRUFF and opXRD, respectively, compared with 58.00%, 58.47% and 26.45% for the strongest comparator. These results demonstrate how an integrated scientific tool ecosystem can support agents that extract structural knowledge from measurements while accumulating validated analytical expertise that transfers to new samples.
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All authors Bin Cao, Huichi Zhou, Runyu Yang, Jingsong Li, Shuchen Sun, Yan Song, Hanyu Gao, Zhongwei Yu, Tong-Yi Zhang, Jun Wang

Machine Learning

Tram-FL: Reducing Communication and Computation Costs through Sequential Model Circulation in Decentralized Federated Learning

Conventional decentralized federated learning (DFL) often focuses on clients, with each client maintaining a model copy, performing updates individually, and undertaking model exchange and integration. While fully leveraging computational resources can shorten training times, it can also lead to significant computational and communication waste. This is especially pronounced with non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) data, where achieving high model accuracy demands extra resources. This research shifts focus to the model itself, aiming to realize DFL with minimal computation and communication costs. To this end, we propose Tram-FL (Traveling Model Training Mechanism for Decentralized Federated Learning), a mechanism designed to efficiently address these challenges. It sequentially trains a single model by circulating it among nodes. We address the training scheduling problem in model circulation-based training, specifically determining which nodes should update the model and the number of updates to perform. This is approached by considering the model's circulation route and update iteration allocation, for which we propose simple yet effective methods. Additionally, with quantized momentum, Tram-FL achieves high accuracy with fewer model circulations while controlling communication load per transmission. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm, even with non-IID data, converges to a global model with reduced communication and computation.
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All authors Kota Maejima, Takayuki Nishio, Asato Yamazaki, Yuko Hara-Azumi

Machine Learning

A Decision-Focused Neural Optimization Framework for Personalized Route Reproduction from Vehicle Trajectories

This study formulates individual route reproduction as a shortest-path problem over learned driver-specific latent link costs. The central idea is that, once such latent costs are inferred from contextual information, observed routes can be reproduced without enumerating alternative route sets. We propose a neural pipeline that includes a perception model that embeds context covariates, which comprises individual characteristics, trip-specific attributes, and network-level traffic states, into the personalized link costs. A constrained optimization (CO) layer, which determines the shortest path (SP) based on these estimated costs, follows the perception encoder. To enable end-to-end training, we employ decision-focused learning to align the predicted shortest paths with observed routes. The implicit maximum likelihood estimation (iMLE) provides an approximate gradient of the loss function that contains the non-differentiable CO layer. Furthermore, a regularization term anchors the latent cost distribution to the empirical scale of observed link travel times, mitigating the scale ambiguity inherent in shortest-path supervision. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms baseline route choice models in path reproduction. The learned latent costs, interpreted as proxies for perceived travel costs, provide plausible explanations for heterogeneous route choices.
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Machine Learning

Lost in the bf16 Cast: Exporting Ternary Language Models Can Revert Most Low-Learning-Rate Code Changes

Ternary language models such as BitNet b1.58, Falcon-E and BitCPM are fine-tuned with higher-precision latent weights and deployed as ternary codes produced by an export step that, in the labs' documented pipelines, first casts the latents to bf16. We audit those pipelines across three labs. In released checkpoints, fp32 quantization of the shipped latents disagrees with the deployed codes on 0.83-1.77% of codes in Falcon-E and BitCPM and on 1.530% in BitNet 2B-4T; for Falcon-E and BitCPM most disagreements are products that bf16 rounding lands exactly on the threshold, which ties-to-even maps to zero, and the unmodified onebitllms exporter reproduces all four Falcon-E releases byte for byte. At fine-tuned endpoints, with learning rates selected to match a nominal learning-rate-to-bf16-ULP ratio, the documented export lowers greedy GSM8K strict accuracy from 58.79% to 0.78% for Falcon-E-1B-Base and from 36.13% to 0.39% for BitCPM-CANN-0.5B, and a bf16 save and reload lowers BitNet 2B-4T's strict accuracy by 27.54 points while its last-number accuracy rises. Two compatibility remedies, writing the training quantizer's codes directly or adjusting the bf16 inputs until the unchanged tools emit them, each met a 4-point strict-accuracy non-inferiority criterion against online evaluation in all three models. In a prospectively frozen study of bf16 latents during fine-tuning (one task, one recipe and trajectory per arm), native bf16 writes left 2B-4T's codes unchanged at the endpoint and changed one Falcon-E code, while emulated stochastic-rounding and compensated writers changed codes and were non-inferior to fp32 training at the same margin in both models. In two model families, randomized interventions on the initial distance from the threshold support distance-dependent selection of the codes that fine-tuning changes.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.MS

Scen-Opt: A Scenario Optimization Toolbox for Data-Driven Convex Programming

The scenario approach is a well-established statistical framework for data-driven decision-making. In particular, in data-driven optimization, the scenario approach unveils how the problem structure governs out-of-sample generalization, and offers a principled basis for assessing and certifying the reliability of the optimal solution as per constraint satisfaction. Despite its strong theoretical development and wide applicability, no software toolbox has been available to date that enables user-friendly, data-driven convex optimization within the scenario-approach framework. In this paper, we introduce Scen-Opt, an open-source software tool that integrates convex programming with data samples while providing statistical guarantees grounded in scenario theory. Scen-Opt is implemented in Python, supporting data-driven linear, quadratic, and semidefinite programming, and offers a Python-based web application with an intuitive and reactive graphical user interface (GUI) built using modern web technologies. Scen-Opt can be used directly through its online interface or installed locally, accommodating both manual input and data-file uploads (CSV, JSON, TXT, TSV, MAT, Excel, NPY, NPZ, Parquet). Built on a Python backend with a modern JavaScript frontend, Scen-Opt offers a highly user-friendly experience and efficient usability across desktops, laptops, tablets, and mobile devices. In this paper, Scen-Opt is applied to a set of representative benchmarks, demonstrating its practical effectiveness for data-driven convex optimization with guaranteed performance.
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All authors Ben Wooding, Simone Garatti, Marco C. Campi, Abolfazl Lavaei

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

CHARTER: Auditing Reference Substitution in Hierarchical Compact-Evidence Evaluation for Computational Pathology

In digital pathology, compact evidence is often used to explain or audit predictions made by whole-slide image multiple instance learning models. In hierarchical compact-evidence pipelines, candidate filtering introduces a strategy-specific candidate-conditioned prediction alongside the original full-bag prediction. If the evaluation reference changes while the intended target remains the original full-bag prediction, however, not only can the measured fidelity of the same compact evidence change, but comparisons between competing candidate strategies can also change. To make this dependence explicit, we introduce CHARTER, a reference-aware evaluation charter that asks researchers to DECLARE the intended target and reference, QUANTIFY candidate-induced prediction shift, and AUDIT the stability of comparative conclusions. Across the 15 comparisons in our main five-seed Random-K audit, 4 showed determinate reversals; in a matched native-ranking stress test, the ACMIL comparison changed from REVERSED to PRESERVED. CHARTER turns otherwise implicit candidate-filtering and reference choices into an auditable evaluation specification, helping distinguish genuine preservation of the intended prediction from apparent gains induced by changing the prediction being explained.
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All authors Hyun Do Jung, Jungwon Choi, Soojung Choi, Yujin Oh, Hwiyoung Kim

Machine Learning

Privileged Context as Drift in On-Policy Self-Distillation

On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) trains a language model to match a copy of itself conditioned on privileged context. Existing work varies what privileged context contains and how it is produced while also changing models, data, and training setups, making the effects of privileged context design difficult to isolate. Motivated by efforts in continual learning to reduce catastrophic forgetting, we study how the choice of privileged context affects policy drift. Specifically, we vary two axes: content (a demonstration, feedback, or rephrase) and source (external, self-generated with a verifier, or self-generated without a verifier). We train Qwen2.5-7B with OPSD across these nine combinations and three datasets, measuring target-task accuracy, prior-task retention, reverse KL from the base policy, and parameter-update geometry. Holding source fixed, changing content spans a wider median KL range than holding content fixed and changing source. The ratio between these ranges is $5.1\times$ for per-token KL and $2.2\times$ for per-sequence KL. Parameter-update geometry shows the same pattern: updates from adapters that share content are more closely aligned (mean cosine $0.571$) than updates from adapters that share source ($0.255$). For continual learning, these findings suggest that privileged context should be treated as part of OPSD's stability design because it is associated with how far and in what direction the policy moves.
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Machine Learning

Retrieval Is Not Enough: Refreshing Memory for Frozen Time-Series Forecasters

Retrieval-augmented time-series forecasting uses the continuations of historical segments similar to the current context as references for a forecaster. Most existing methods build the retrieval memory once from the training segment, leaving observations revealed after deployment unavailable as references, and generally do not calibrate how much the retrieved information should influence a frozen forecaster. We identify two key determinants of retrieval utility for a frozen forecaster: whether the history still reflects the current state, and whether the correction it induces aligns with the forecaster's residual errors, an alignment that can shift between validation and deployment when the memory becomes stale. We propose FreshCast, a plug-in retrieval framework that keeps the forecaster frozen, continuously updates a non-parametric memory with new observations, forms a memory forecast through relational kernel regression, and calibrates its weight in closed form on the validation segment. Under a simplified generative model, we characterize the optimal combination gain through the second-order relation between forecaster error and memory correction, and show that a sufficiently long look-back can make periodic memory information redundant. Across seven benchmarks and ten forecasting architectures, FreshCast reduces average MSE for every evaluated forecaster and input length, by 14.6% and 5.6% at input lengths 96 and 720, and achieves lower MSE than the evaluated retrieval-augmented and online baselines in their comparison settings. Ablations show that freezing the memory at the end of training removes most of the gain, identifying post-training observations as a primary source of improvement. For a frozen forecaster, useful historical references must remain timely and provide information that helps correct its remaining errors.
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All authors Chao He, Jianyu Xu, Xinyi Guo, Ruiqi Liu, Haobin Ding, Ruiqi He, Yuntong Xie, Dongqing Song

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.NE

Forecast Accuracy Is Not Trading Profit: Evolving Small Recurrent Networks for Stock Return Prediction

Time series forecasting models are typically compared on pointwise error, which scores a prediction in isolation from the decision it is produced for, and a lower forecast error does not imply a better decision downstream. A parallel debate asks whether modern transformer architectures forecast better than recurrent and other lightweight models. We compare linear, fixed recurrent, transformer, and mixing based architectures against recurrent networks evolved by neuroevolutionary architecture search, evaluating each on forecast accuracy and on the net return of a daily long/short strategy. All models are fit on a pooled panel, one network trained across the whole universe. Across four mid-cap portfolios and three trading years, the evolved networks rank first on both forecast accuracy and net trading performance, while the second most accurate model loses money once positions are formed and costs are charged. The advantage tracks a horizon match, since rank IC for the evolved networks rises from a one-day to a ten-day scoring horizon while every model above 300 parameters declines. They are also the cheapest end to end: a CPU-only search of 16 minutes yields 66-weight networks that predict in 10.8~$\mu$s on a Raspberry Pi Zero, against transformer baselines of up to 817,153 parameters that require GPU training.
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Machine Learning

CANDLE: Cortical Null-Space Decomposition for Noninvasive Brain Source Imaging

Electrophysiological source imaging (ESI) aims to estimate cortical source activity from noninvasive electrophysiological measurements such as electroencephalogram (EEG). However, ESI is fundamentally ill-posed because source activity is substantially higher-dimensional than sensor observations, resulting in non-unique solutions. Recent learning-based approaches address this ambiguity by learning data-driven source priors, yet they often struggle to generalize across subject-specific cortical geometries. To address this, we propose CANDLE, a learning-based ESI model that estimates source activity on subject-specific cortical geometries. CANDLE learns a prior over the null space induced by the source-to-sensor mapping derived from T1-weighted MRI, restricting learning to unobservable source components while preserving geometric constraints. To train CANDLE, we develop a whole-brain simulator spanning over 1,100 subject-specific cortical geometries with source configurations derived from over 26,000 statistical brain maps. Trained exclusively on simulated data, CANDLE outperformed prior ESI methods on simulated source activity estimation and generalized to two empirical tasks: (i) intracranial stimulation localization from simultaneously recorded scalp EEG and (ii) epileptogenic zone estimation from presurgical interictal EEG. Our project page is available at https://candle-esi.pages.dev}{https://candle-esi.pages.dev.
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Machine Learning

TTNet: Multi-Task Deep Learning for Table Tennis Player Analysis with Smart Racket

The AI CUP 2025 Precise Analysis of Table Tennis Smart Racket Data Competition introduced smart table tennis rackets that collect extensive player swing data, enabling research on table tennis big data. These data support in-depth analysis of players' return techniques and swing-force consistency, improving the accuracy of player skill assessment. This study focuses on six-axis sensor data collected by smart table tennis rackets and proposes TTNet, a novel deep learning model with multitask learning capabilities, to advance table tennis data analysis and related applications. TTNet combines convolutional neural networks (CNNs), residual networks (ResNet), and self-attention mechanisms to simultaneously predict four player attributes: gender, playing hand, years of experience, and skill level. We adopt a two-stage training strategy that incorporates data augmentation and task-specific loss functions to improve generalization on imbalanced data. Our approach achieved second place on the official competition leaderboard.
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All authors Ko-Hsun Chen, Xiang-Wei Ke, Hsien-Cheng Huang, Shang-Kuan Chen

Machine Learning

$\alpha$Transfer: Coefficient Transfer for Efficient Model Merging

Model merging offers a promising solution for combining multiple fine-tuned checkpoints into a single model through parameter arithmetic. However, finding optimal merging coefficients requires an extensive search that becomes prohibitively expensive as models scale in both size and number, due to high memory requirements and combinatorial growth in the search space. We show that, within the same model family, models exhibit highly congruent performance distributions over merging coefficients across different model sizes. This distributional similarity enables a practical paradigm we call \textit{$\alpha$Transfer}: searching for optimal coefficients on a small proxy model, then directly transfer them to larger target models. We verify $\alpha$Transfer across multiple merging methods, model families, and tasks. Experimental results demonstrate a 6$\times$ speedup and 70% memory reduction on vision transformers, and a 20$\times$ speedup and 85% memory reduction on large language models, while maintaining comparable performance. Our findings establish $\alpha$Transfer as an efficient and generalizable approach to scaling model merging.
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All authors Shih-Cheng Huang, Zhi Rui Tam, Chieh-Yen Lin, Yun-Nung Chen, Hung-yi Lee, Shao-Hua Sun

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Do I Need the Cloud? Uncertainty-Aware Step-Level Handoff for Small Language Model Agents

Small language models (SLMs) are attractive as local agent controllers because they reduce remote inference, latency, and deployment footprint, yet structured tool errors can cause an agent step to fail. Existing routers typically select a model once per query. However, agents expose sequential decision points whose difficulty dynamically changes based on intermediate observations. We propose STEPGATE, an uncertainty-aware handoff framework that scores each local SLM action and selectively escalates challenging steps to a stronger model. On a 52-task held-out single-step BFCL-derived test split, the Qwen2.5-1.5B/7B pair attains 82.7% task success with 30.8% escalation, versus 67.3% local-only and 75.4% random escalation (which uses 33.8% escalation). In a separate multi-turn evaluation, STEPGATE achieves 69.0% trajectory success and 84.0% action success using only 30.0% cloud actions, compared with 48.0%/70.5% local-only, 60.0%/78.2% random escalation, and 57.0%/77.1% query-level routing (strong-only achieves 82.0% trajectory success at 100% cloud actions). These results suggest that step-level escalation recovers a large share of the performance gap to the stronger Qwen2.5-7B backend at a matched cloud-action rate while transmitting fewer tokens remotely. However, our evaluation is limited to one model family, a single stronger backend, and scripted tasks. Furthermore, the test sets are small, multi-turn comparisons rely on paired intervals and statistical tests, and our risk tiers serve as research annotations rather than formal safety guarantees.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Stochastic Gradient Descent Ascent is Suboptimal for Nonconvex-PŁ Min-Max Games

How far can stochastic gradient descent ascent (SGDA) go by tuning its timescale ratio and step sizes in nonconvex min-max games? We answer this question for nonconvex-PŁ (NC-PŁ) games by establishing the first tight complexity of two-timescale SGDA with a fixed timescale ratio and non-increasing step sizes. For $\ell$-smooth games with an inner $\mu$-PŁ inequality, we prove a complexity lower bound $\Omega(\kappa^2\ell\varepsilon^{-2}+\kappa^4\ell\sigma^2\varepsilon^{-4})$, where $\kappa=\ell/\mu$ is the condition number, $\sigma^2$ is the gradient variance, and $\varepsilon$ measures the outer gradient norm. This matches existing SGDA upper bounds and establishes a complexity separation from Smoothed-AGDA (Yang et al., 22'). In addition, we show that SGDA can fail to find a stationary point when its timescale ratio is as small as $o(\kappa^2)$. Our negative results highlight the fundamental limitation of SGDA in NC-PŁ games, and justify the development of alternative methods.
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Machine Learning

SIFT: Search Intent-to-Filter Transformer for Multi-Task Personalized Filter Ranking at Airbnb

Search filters help guests navigate vast catalogs in two-sided marketplaces like Airbnb, and recommending the right filters can meaningfully lift booking conversion. Many such production filter-ranking systems, however, represent the guest through hand-engineered, pre-aggregated features generated by ETL pipelines. This makes it expensive to maintain and difficult to extend for new filter types or contextual dimensions (trip length, group size). We present SIFT (Search Intent-to-Filter Transformer), a ranking model built on transformers that learns guest preferences directly from raw behavioral sequences. SIFT replaces manual feature engineering with a unified guest representation that feeds multiple prediction tasks, including booking likelihood, filter engagement, and ordinal capacity thresholds (e.g., 2+ bedrooms) – a general framework for filter ranking in two-sided marketplaces that accommodates both boolean and numeric-range filter types. Extending SIFT to new filters requires only adding a new head, not a new feature pipeline. To keep serving fast, this guest representation is computed offline on a daily cadence rather than at request time. Offline, SIFT improves booking and amenity-engagement PR-AUC by +51.9% and +62.8% respectively over the production baseline. In online A/B testing, SIFT increased engagement with recommended filters by +20.0%, overall filter usage among searchers by +0.72%, and usage of the newly-supported bedroom, bathroom, and bed filters by +3.9%, +10.7%, and +0.52% respectively. Demonstrating the system's extensibility, we rapidly integrated a novel hotel-intent filter using the same shared representation, driving a +3.8% lift in uncancelled hotel bookings and a +0.76% lift in overall marketplace bookings. SIFT is now fully deployed in production, serving scalable personalization to millions of guests.
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All authors Shashank Dabriwal, Tanya Piplani, Hao Li, Yiwei Wang, Ashish Jain, Kedar Bellare, Stephanie Moyerman

Machine Learning

MASKerade: Token-Routed Mask Experts for Dense-to-MoE Upcycling

Sparsely activated Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models increase model capacity without a proportional increase in per-token computation. Dense-to-MoE upcycling reuses pretrained dense models to construct such systems, commonly by copying feed-forward networks (FFNs) into independently trained experts. We introduce MASKerade, a dense-to-MoE training method that instead learns experts as sparse subnetworks of a frozen pretrained FFN. Each expert is defined by a learned binary mask, and a token-level router selects which masked FFNs to execute and combine. The router and mask scores are optimized jointly, while the underlying FFN weight values remain unchanged. This formulation supports neuron-structured, semi-structured, and unstructured experts within the same routing architecture. Our main configuration uses four 2:4 experts with top-2 routing, where two half-dense expert passes have the nominal FFN arithmetic of one dense pass, without requiring independent expert weight matrices. On five vision-language benchmarks with Qwen and Gemma backbones, this configuration achieves the highest performance among the compared baselines. Comparisons across mask granularities, routing interventions, and compute-matched controls distinguish the effects of learned connectivity from expert activation count. These results establish mask learning over frozen weights as a practical alternative for constructing token-routed MoE experts.
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All authors Mingyuan Zhang, Yue Bai, Zhongruo Wang, Yupin Huang, Yiyang Huang, Hailing Wang, Huimin Zeng, Yun Fu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.NE

Common-Mode Errors Limit Low-Timestep Deep Spiking Q-Networks

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) offer sparse and event-driven computation, making them attractive for energy-constrained reinforcement learning (RL) on edge devices. In value-based RL, deep spiking Q-networks (DSQNs) combine such efficiency with action-value estimation for decision making. However, existing DSQNs often require multiple simulation timesteps for competitive performance, increasing computational and energy costs, whereas reducing the timesteps can cause substantial performance degradation. We investigate this degradation from the perspective of Q-value estimation errors. By decomposing errors across actions into common-mode and differential-mode components, we find that low-timestep DSQNs suffer disproportionately from common-mode errors shared across action values, which are particularly detrimental to temporal-difference learning through bootstrapped targets. Based on this finding, we propose Common-Mode Compensation Deep Spiking Q-Network (CMC-DSQN), which uses an auxiliary ANN to compensate for common-mode errors in the SNN outputs. At inference, greedy action selection can be performed directly from the SNN outputs, allowing the auxiliary ANN to be completely removed and preserving the energy efficiency of SNNs. Extensive experiments on Atari and MiniAtar environments demonstrate substantial performance improvements under low-timestep settings. CMC-DSQN outperforms state-of-the-art DSQN baselines by nearly $20\%$ at $T=2$ and further surpasses the ANN baseline at $T=4$.
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All authors Zijie Xu, Bingrui Guo, Yiding Sun, Yiting Dong, Zhile Yang, Zhaofei Yu

Machine Learning

Adaptive Mean Estimation by In-Context Learning: A Gradient-Flow Analysis

Prior Fitted Networks (PFNs) such as TabPFN now rival established statistical procedures across prediction and estimation tasks. A natural explanation is that PFNs have the property of statistical adaptivity, that is, they perform nearly as well as a method tailored to the true data-generating model for a heterogeneous set of models, while not being told which model the data comes from. We study how such adaptivity is learned in a controlled location-estimation problem. Each task is an unlabeled sample whose family is hidden: Gaussian data call for averaging, with error of order $n^{-1}$, whereas uniform data are best estimated from their extremes, at the faster rate $n^{-2}$. We also provide the example of a symmetric Gaussian mixture, for which a rate of $\sigma^2_n/n$ can be attained. On scalar inputs, softmax attention computes the derivative of the empirical cumulant-generating function. A single primitive therefore both supplies features that distinguish the families and forms estimators interpolating between the sample mean and the mid-range. We combine attention experts through either a softmax mixture of experts or a gated linear unit (GLU), and analyze stagewise gradient flow. With $\widetilde{\Omega}(n^{1+\epsilon})$ pretraining tasks, the learned estimator is asymptotically efficient on Gaussian tasks, within a factor $n^{\epsilon}$ of the minimax rate on uniform tasks, and order-optimal on mixtures in a shrinking-variance regime. These guarantees extend to new locations and longer contexts. A risk decomposition separates expert error, routing error and normalization error, which clarifies the architectural contrast. Softmax gating enforces normalization and exact translation equivariance, whereas the GLU must learn it: its dynamics separate into fast bias removal followed by slow expert selection. End-to-end experiments recover the predicted specialization.
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All authors Martin Eppert, Krishna Balasubramanian, Subhro Ghosh, Jason Klusowski, Yan Shuo Tan

Machine Learning

The Geometry of Empowerment

Empowerment captures the capacity for an agent to actively control its environment. While conceptually appealing as an information-theoretic quantity, the connection between empowerment and structurally central states that provide broad access to future outcomes has remained an open question. In this work, we link empowerment maximization and skill-learning methods to provide new geometries for interpreting and analyzing empowerment. Our analyses answer longstanding open questions on the connections between empowerment and structural centrality. Our analyses also reveal distinctions between information and reward geometries, highlighting important theoretical implications to build scalable empowerment-maximization methods. Website and code can be found at https://empowerment-geometry.github.io/.
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All authors Catherine Ji, Vivek Myers, Sergey Levine, Benjamin Eysenbach