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Computer Science Machine Learning

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Wednesday 23 September

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Turning Safety into Competence: Minimally Exploitable Robot Policies via Safety-Filtered Reinforcement Learning

Robots deployed for competitive tasks must outmaneuver their opponents without sacrificing safety. Existing approaches, including safe reinforcement learning (RL), train a single policy to achieve task success and avoid failures simultaneously. This coupling can complicate training and leave the learned policy exploitable by deliberate attacks. We propose Safety to Competence (S2C), a two-stage RL framework that separates safety synthesis from competitive task learning. We formulate competitive interactions as safety-critical Markov games and prove that perfect filtering preserves policy non-exploitability when all players commit to safe maneuvers. S2C learns a robust safety filter via adversarial RL, embeds it in the environment during task policy training, and retains the same filter at deployment. In simulated touchdown games, S2C outperforms eight safe RL baselines, achieving the highest win rate and Elo rating, and the lowest exploitability. Hardware stress tests against a human opponent confirm S2C's competence.
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All authors Ruihan Wu, Rui Yang, Donggeon David Oh, Duy Nguyen, Haimin Hu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SE

FairTest: Search-Based Fairness Testing for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Systems

Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) trains a team of agents that share one environment and learn their policies together. Training maximizes the team return, and a high return does not imply that the rewards are shared fairly among the agents in every episode. Testing is an established way to discover the failures of deep reinforcement learning, yet few methods address the fairness of MARL. In this work, we propose FairTest, a search-based testing approach that seeks the unfair executions of a MARL policy. The design combines search guidance with test prioritization. The guidance scores each candidate with three fitness functions. One measures the fairness of the runs already performed, another predicts the fairness from abstract states and fairness features, and the third reads the decision uncertainty from the policy. Crossover and mutation derive further candidates from the observed executions. The prioritization ranks the candidates by the predicted fairness and the decision uncertainty, so that the runs reach the candidates where failures are expected. FairTest is evaluated on three environments and two MARL algorithms, and four baselines are given the same budget. It detects the most fairness failures compared to three baselines with statistical significance and large effect sizes. The failure count exceeds that of the strongest baseline by 221% on average and coverage improves by an average of 23%.
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Machine Learning

Discrete Diffusion Models via Evolving Variational Autoregressive Networks

Conventional score-based diffusion models learn scores without representing normalized densities, whereas tractable normalized models support both sampling and direct likelihood evaluation. A recent tensor-network approach provides such a representation but is largely restricted to low-dimensional lattices. Here we introduce a discrete diffusion model that parameterizes normalized probability distributions using variational autoregressive networks. Explicit Markov jump operators govern the forward noising and reverse denoising dynamics, extending discrete diffusion models with normalized distributions to spin systems on higher-dimensional lattices. We apply this framework to the two- and three-dimensional Ising models across ordered, critical, and disordered regimes, accurately computing thermodynamic quantities including free energy, energy, and magnetization. We further integrate the framework with Monte Carlo sampling, using adaptive diffusion steps to maintain high acceptance rates even at low temperatures while enhancing sample diversity. These results establish a neural-network framework for the discrete diffusion model with normalized probability distributions.
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Machine Learning

Live Assistant: Learning Whether, When, and Whom to Assist in Real-World Live Social Streams

Livestreams are long-lasting interactive environments where audiovisual content, viewer activity, host behavior, and platform signals evolve together, creating assistance needs that emerge from the stream itself. We introduce \liveassistant, a framework for mixed-initiative, role-conditioned assistance that formulates livestream interaction as four coupled decisions: whether to act, when to act, whom to address, and what to communicate. At each 10-second interval, one autoregressive policy consumes native audio and video with synchronized comments, gifts, viewer dynamics, and room metadata, then selects OBS, MEM, or ANS. OBS remains silent, MEM records a private semantic update, and ANS specifies a recipient, task, and grounded message. To support this task, we build a trajectory engine that reconstructs real livestream sessions into structured causal supervision, yielding over 320 hours of optimization trajectories and a human-reviewed benchmark of 275 clips and 13,812 decision intervals. We train the policy with Marker-Aware Multiturn Supervised Fine-Tuning (MA-MSFT), which strengthens sparse structured decisions, followed by Streaming Multiturn GSPO (SM-GSPO), which optimizes self-generated trajectories with turn- and trajectory-level credit. On the held-out benchmark, \liveassistant reaches 71.14 state accuracy, 72.67 recipient accuracy, and 58.41 task accuracy, with consistent gains over representative streaming and general multimodal baselines. Together, the formulation, benchmark, and training framework establish livestream assistance as selective participation in a shared social stream.
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All authors Shujian Gao, Jiamei Yan, Yuchen Yang, Penghao Zhou, Qinglei Wang, Tiehan Fan, Yuan Wang, Zuxuan Wu, Yu-gang Jiang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ME

Beyond the Illusion of Power: Calibrating Quasi-Experiments in Observational IS

Information systems (IS) researchers increasingly use quasi-experimental methods such as difference-in-differences (DiD) and instrumental variables (IV) to recover causal effects from observational panel data. Power calculations that justify these designs assume i.i.d. errors, but the deeper problem is what even a cluster-robust calculator cannot see. We report a Monte Carlo study over 9837 parameter conditions (approx 9.8 million datasets) and decompose the planned-versus-achieved power gap. The serial-correlation component is recoverable by an AR(1)-aware calculator when rho is known, and partially when rho must be estimated from short pre-periods, but panel attrition, staggered-adoption bias, and parallel-trends pretesting are captured by no closed-form formula; exogenous attrition alone costs approx 8 to 11 percentage points at the few-hundred-to-thousand sample sizes IS studies use. Treatment-correlated, outcome-dependent attrition instead induces bias, not just power loss. For IV, holding first-stage F fixed, larger N neither raises power nor curbs exclusion bias, though with a fixed instrument more data does sharpen the first stage, so identification rests on instrument strength, not sample size.
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Machine Learning

KITE: KV-Invariant Transformer Expansion for Efficient Agentic LLM Scaling

Scaling a language model is not only a question of final quality: the architectural choice determines how much computation is spent during training, prompt processing, and autoregressive decoding to achieve certain model quality. An ideal model architecture should lower all above computation costs to facilitate scaling to a larger model, while ensure the larger model indeed outperforms smaller baselines. We introduce KV-Invariant Transformer Expansion (KITE), a scaling paradigm that achieves this goal. It trains the model from a smaller size to a larger size (i.e., saving training costs via upcycling), while places newly added parameters in regions that do not affect attention KV. Consequently, during inference, prefilling KV only relies on the smaller part of the model, so the inference costs are saved. As a concrete instantiation, we present Step Scale Transformer (SST), a two-tower decoder in which one tower produces KV and the other reads them. At comparable cumulative training compute, SST, a 67B MoE model with 2.15B active body parameters per decode token, achieves lower training loss than 47B and 63B MoE Transformers with 1.48B and 2.02B active body parameters, respectively, while reducing estimated inference cost by 6.7% and 31.6%.
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All authors Zhiheng Hu, Yixun Wei, Jian Zhou, Yizhuang Zhou, Ji Li, Xing Chen, Yang Li, Bojun Wang, Yibo Zhu, Xiangyu Zhang, Daxin Jiang

Machine Learning

NGN: Learning Neural Network Size as a Differentiable Count

Neural network size is usually chosen before training, separating architecture selection from weight optimization. We introduce the Neurogenesis Network (NGN), a differentiable parameterization for learning how many ordered structural components a model should use. For each ordered component group, one learnable boundary selects an active prefix while the model parameters are trained. The boundary can grow from a compact initialization and can be deployed by discarding components beyond the learned boundary. Controlled experiments examine convergence of the learned boundary, the performance of deployed prefixes, and comparisons with fixed-size models and alternative approaches to learning capacity. We then apply the same mechanism to MLPs, convolutional and graph networks, Transformers, state-space models, LoRA, and adapters. Across these settings, deploying only the learned prefix usually changes performance little, and the selected architectures perform similarly to fixed models trained at the same size. These results show that structural capacity can be optimized directly as a count.
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Machine Learning

SR-Fraud: An Outcome-Supervised Reflective LLM Agent Framework for Non-Stationary Payment Fraud Detection

Real-time payment fraud detection is a non-stationary streaming prediction problem: adversaries adapt before supervised labels mature, and localized burst attacks can cause losses before retraining. Production systems typically rely on tabular classifiers and rules, which can struggle to capture these emerging sequential patterns before periodic retraining occurs. We present SR-Fraud, an outcome-supervised reflective LLM framework that decouples request-time decisions from offline adaptation. A frozen, stateless agent scores each transaction from a Hybrid Episodic Window to track behavioral shifts, while an offline reflection agent proposes boundary hypotheses from matured errors. A deterministic verifier then admits only supported hypotheses into an executable knowledge state. On a production payment-fraud benchmark, SR-Fraud improves all detection metrics over its frozen decision agent, obtains higher point estimates than static and periodically retrained CatBoost, and detects an emerging fraud burst.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Multitask Regression with Pairwise Fusion

We study multitask regression when coefficient sharing can differ by predictor. For a given predictor, many tasks may have the same coefficient while a few differ, and the exceptional tasks need not be the same for another predictor. We describe this structure by two quantities: the number of active predictors and the total number of task coefficients that differ from the most common value for their predictor. We estimate the coefficient matrix by penalizing all pairwise coefficient differences across tasks, with an additional group penalty when predictor selection is needed. The resulting upper and lower bounds have the same dependence on these two quantities. We also consider the stronger setting in which a large set of tasks shares one entire coefficient vector. Under explicit sample-size conditions, the same pairwise estimator pools those tasks exactly, while allowing the remaining tasks to differ. Simulations and household energy data illustrate the transition between broad sharing and task-specific coefficients.
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Machine Learning

Graph Learning with Spectral Connectivity Priors for Scarce Data

Learning a sparse graph from scarce data is practically important but challenging. Motivated by the desirable combination of local sparsity and strong global connectivity exhibited by expander-like graphs, we propose spectral connectivity-regularized graph learning (SCoGL), a framework that incorporates a family of Laplacian spectral priors to explicitly promote global connectivity. Specifically, SCoGL augments a combinatorial-Laplacian-constrained graphical lasso (GLASSO) objective over a target adjacency matrix $\mathbf{W}$ with a general connectivity prior computed from Laplacian eigenvalues. We derive gradients for several representative connectivity priors and develop a projected gradient descent (PGD) algorithm with Armijo backtracking to efficiently optimize $\mathbf{W}$. Experiments show that the proposed SCoGL variants improve graph recovery and enhance downstream tasks such as graph signal denoising when signal observations are scarce.
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All authors Mingxiao Liu, Bahar Oveisgharan, Bingyan Zou, Gene Cheung, H. Vicky Zhao, Feifei Gao

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

TimeEvo: Failure-Driven Self-Evolution of a Time Series Agent

Time series agents answer analytical questions by calling external tools, and which tools they carry is decided by people before the agent runs. However, we identify two failures in this setup. Human-Agent Tool Misalignment: a library of 21 expert-curated tools helps on some tasks and hurts on others, dropping anomaly accuracy under every backbone we test. Silent Harm: one round of generic self-revision changes 147 answers and breaks 56 of them, while the final score moves by less than a point. Both follow from the same gap: whether a tool helps is decided question by question at runtime, while tools are supplied in advance and judged by a single average. To address this, we propose TimeEvo, which clusters an agent's diagnosed failures into capability gaps, plans a measurement for each, synthesizes evidence-only tools that fill them, and admits the candidate library only through a paired admission gate. Experiments on ten time series QA tasks and three backbones show that TimeEvo, starting from an empty library, improves accuracy on every task and every backbone, and that a library grown on a cheap model still gains when it is installed into stronger ones. Code is available at https://github.com/Muyiiiii/TimeEvo.
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All authors Jie Yang, Yan Zheng, Jiarui Sun, Xiran Fan, Junpeng Wang, Liang Wang, Zelin Xu, Qinghua Liu, Zhengyu Fang, Yiwei Cai, Philip S. Yu

Machine Learning

What Converges in the Platonic Representation Hypothesis? Structure over Geometry

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis suggests that increasingly capable models converge toward shared representations. Recent work narrows this claim to shared local neighborhood relationships, finding that capacity-dependent trends in several global similarity measures largely disappear after calibration. We challenge this interpretation by showing that prior local-global comparisons confound structural scale (local versus global) with what is compared: relational structure, defined by which samples are related, versus metric geometry, characterized by quantitative relations such as distances, similarities, or correlations. To disentangle these factors, we construct a controlled $2\times2$ framework that evaluates both relational structure and metric geometry at local and global scales. We introduce $H_0$ skeleton overlap as a global counterpart to mutual $k$-nearest neighbors, together with matched distance-aware variants. Across vision-language models, relational structure exhibits robust representational convergence at both scales after calibration, whereas increasingly stringent distance agreement substantially weakens alignment and progressively flattens the capacity-dependent trend. We further extend the analysis beyond ambient Euclidean geometry by evaluating distance agreement under a Riemannian metric approximation and recover the same structure-geometry pattern. The pattern is also reproduced in video-text representations. Together, these results show that relational convergence extends beyond local neighborhoods to global spanning structure, whereas metric geometry exhibits substantially weaker convergence.
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All authors Junwon You, Mihyun Jang, Sangwoo Mo, Jae-Hun Jung

Machine Learning

Repurposing Pre-trained LLMs as High Fidelity Continuous Text Autoencoders

Next-token prediction has enabled highly fluent autoregressive language models, but it represents global structure only indirectly through sequential factorization. In contrast, high-fidelity autoencoders have become a standard primitive in image generation, enabling generative models to operate over continuous latent spaces; text lacks a comparably faithful continuous representation. We propose LLMAE, a method for repurposing a pretrained decoder-only language model as a continuous text autoencoder by exposing the activations of an intermediate layer as a fixed-length latent bottleneck. LLMAE achieves this interface with structured attention masks and LoRA adaptation, leveraging the generative prior of the original LLM. Across two backbones (270M Gemma 3 and 0.5B Qwen2.5), LLMAE reconstructs sequences up to 1024 tokens with high accuracy, reproducing up to 97% of documents verbatim. We demonstrate downstream utility by training a lightweight diffusion model that generates detailed image captions directly in the frozen LLMAE latent space. By mapping text into a fixed-length continuous latent space, our approach provides an effective substrate for downstream adaptation while benefiting from the fluency of the original LLM. Code and models are available at https://github.com/arkanath/LLMAE.
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Machine Learning

Full-Covariance Smoothing of Bayesian Neural Networks for Online Adaptation

A neural network's layers can be treated as time steps of a state-space model, turning Bayesian training into a smoothing problem: a forward pass propagates Gaussian moments through the network, and a backward Rauch–Tung–Striebel pass updates the weight posteriors in closed form. Such methods learn from each observation in a single pass, in an uncertainty-aware manner, and without gradient-based iterations or replay, which makes them well suited for online adaptation and data-efficient learning. Existing smoothing-based methods, however, are restricted to diagonal covariances across activations, discarding correlations between neurons. We overcome this limitation via a cross-covariance identity that enables full-covariance propagation through a network's nonlinear activations. We derive a one-step-per-layer smoother that approximates as Gaussian only each layer's affine output, and that applies both to deterministic systems with noisy observations and to stochastic systems described by output statistics. We demonstrate this method in non-stationary classification, online dynamics learning, and policy adaptation of a vision-language-action model, and find that it is generally more accurate than other smoothing-based methods.
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All authors Oren Wright, Haoming Jing, Qiaoan Shen, Koichiro Niinuma, Yorie Nakahira, José M. F. Moura

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

On the Sample Complexity of Active Learning with Membership Queries

This work revisits a fundamental question in active learning: how powerful is the ability to synthesize arbitrary queries? Compared to pool-based active learning, where the learner only selects queries from a given unlabeled pool, it has been observed that this seemingly mild change in query ability may dramatically alter the difficulty of statistical learning. In particular some hypothesis classes, such as two dimensional halfspaces, permit only polynomial error decay in the number of samples when the learner must draw its labels from the pool, yet become exponentially learnable once synthesized queries are allowed. This striking gap suggests that membership query synthesis induces a fundamentally different mode of learning, one that is not adequately captured by existing active learning theory and calls for new analytical tools to characterize its sample complexity for general hypothesis classes. Motivated by this phenomenon, we develop several sufficient conditions, present intriguing examples, and propose a conjectural perspective toward understanding which hypothesis classes admit efficient learning through synthesized queries.
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Machine Learning

Discover, Falsify, Revise: Auditing Input-Use Claims from Source Code to Predictive Contribution in Agent-Discovered Cell Models

AI virtual cells aim to predict cellular responses to specified interventions, yet held-out predictive performance alone does not establish use of the supplied perturbation information. This prediction-claim gap matters in agentic model discovery, where language-model agents generate and revise predictors using score-based feedback. We introduce CELLAUDIT, which audits input-use claims by asking whether an input can enter the cited computation, whether fitted predictions depend on it, and whether that dependence improves prediction of observed response. On a paired morphology-transcriptomics perturbation benchmark (BBBC047), an agent-selected predictor attains a mean held-out Global Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.3153 but remains invariant to compound replacement; a control-profile-only predictor reaches 0.3142. Source inspection identifies a compound-query pathway blocked by singleton key-value attention, and the invariance persists after refitting with disjoint control wells. In a stratified audit of 48 candidates across two linked tasks, 47 change predictions under compound replacement on both held-out folds, but only 20 show target-loss gains with intervals above zero on both folds. On BBBC047, falsification-guided revisions recover positive mean compound contributions while retaining gains over the control-profile-only baseline. In matched sci-Plex searches, audit-enriched feedback yields higher held-out performance and larger mean compound and dose contributions across five trajectories, although paired intervals span zero. Refitting fixed designs on an independently acquired cohort shows predictive generalization need not imply generalization of input-use claims: dose contribution persists, whereas support for compound identity does not. CELLAUDIT adds a falsification layer to agentic model discovery, moving from generate-score-revise toward discover-falsify-revise.
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All authors Mengran Li, Bo Li, Chengyang Zhang, Yang Yan, Jinfeng Xu, Zhenchao Tang

Machine Learning

A Scaling Study for fMRI Foundation Models

Scaling laws have guided large-model development in computer vision and natural language processing, but the relationships among data, model size, and compute remain unclear for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) foundation models. Here, we conduct a controlled empirical study using pretraining data from more than 200 source datasets and over 10,000 GPU-hours of experiments. Holding the pretraining framework and downstream protocol fixed, we vary pretraining data size, model size, and training duration. Downstream performance generally improves with compute, yet models using similar compute can perform substantially differently. Additional pretraining data bring larger gains at larger model sizes, suggesting that data and model size should be scaled together. At matched compute, increasing pretraining data benefits more tasks than increasing model size, although the pattern varies across tasks. We then use in-distribution (ID) downstream performance to select the combination of pretraining data size, model size, and training duration at two fixed compute budgets. The resulting models are locked before out-of-distribution (OOD) evaluation. They achieve the highest average performance across the evaluated OOD tasks among the compared fMRI foundation models while using less pretraining compute. Overall, our results show that compute alone does not characterize fMRI scaling: performance depends on how pretraining data, model size, and training duration are combined.
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All authors Wenhao Ye, Xuanye Pan, Junfeng Xia, Junxiang Zhang, Mo Wang, Quanying Liu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD

Physiologically Informed Digital Auscultation for Pneumonia Detection in Long-term Care Residents

Pneumonia is difficult to diagnose in older long-term care residents; multimorbidity and atypical presentations obscure signs, motivating operationally efficient objective testing. We analyzed multi-channel digital stethoscope recordings from 185 Japanese residents (73 pneumonia, 112 symptomatic without), using radiologist-confirmed chest X-rays and clinician diagnoses as supervisory signals that train convolutional neural networks, multimodal fusion, and channel-based variants with time-domain Grad-CAM interpretability. Models were evaluated with repeated patient-level cross-validation showing models with X-ray supervision outperformed clinician supervision (F1 0.729, accuracy 0.783 vs. F1 0.637, accuracy 0.711). Additionally, a three-channel selection protocol maintained performance (F1 0.736; accuracy 0.803), with two mid-thoracic sites ranking highest and Grad-CAM attention overlapping adventitious sounds. These findings indicate automated multi-channel lung-sound analysis can aid long-term care pneumonia diagnosis, with X-ray supervision being more reliable than clinical, and fewer channels preserving performance while lowering acquisition times.
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All authors Nicholas Rasmussen, Oleg Zaslavsky, Zih-Ling Wang, Hongyu Yu, Joelle Fathi, Kaibao Nie, Amil Khanzada, Tomoko Ito

Machine Learning

Tail-Aware Geometry Learning for Conformal Ellipsoids

This paper studies multivariate conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification framework with finite-sample coverage guarantees. The efficiency of multivariate prediction sets hinges critically on the residual geometry encoded by the nonconformity score, while existing minimum-volume methods rely on quantile thresholds that ignore tail residual severity and implicitly bind geometry learning to coverage level. We propose a tail-aware geometry learning framework for conformal ellipsoids that decouples tail sensitivity in geometry learning from the final coverage guarantee. Using a two-split design, we learn the metric matrix via volume minimization under a CVaR constraint on an estimation split, then apply standard conformal calibration on a held-out calibration split. The resulting problem is convex and admits a bounded-reweighting interpretation that prioritizes high-residual samples. Moreover, we theoretically characterize the trade-off between ellipsoidal volume and tail severity. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CE

KATOsuper: Surrogate-accelerated neural topology optimization with sensitivity-consistent Fourier neural operators

Topology optimization (TO) remains computationally intensive due to repeated finite element analysis (FEA) evaluations required at each iteration. While neural network-based surrogates offer potential acceleration, existing approaches often suffer from gradient inconsistency between predicted objectives and sensitivities, leading to optimization instability. This work presents KATOsuper, an objective-agnostic framework that couples neural-reparameterized topology optimization with a Sensitivity-Consistent Fourier Neural Operator (SC-FNO). The framework employs the forward_split architecture, which derives deployed sensitivities via automatic differentiation through the predicted objective field and thereby preserves consistency between the predicted objective and the gradient used for optimization. The case studies include three 2D benchmark problems and three 3D structures considering compliance or stress minimization. A physics-informed multi-channel input encoding with Fourier position embedding enables resolution-invariant learning, supporting zero-shot extrapolation beyond the training resolution, with useful performance at moderate scaling factors and topology-preserving exploration at up to 64x without retraining. The framework extends to 3D through KATO3D, featuring novel KANConv3D blocks with learnable B-spline activations. KATOsuper demonstrates 15–110x deployment-time speedup over MATLAB baselines while maintaining competitive optimality, with the clearest gains observed in complex 3D and stress-optimization cases. The insight that sensitivity direction matters more than magnitude enables robust optimization even with approximate physics evaluation, extensible to other differentiable physics-driven design objectives.
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Machine Learning

Scalable Subgraph Sampling via Resistance Curvature

Subgraph sampling reduces the training cost of large-scale graph neural networks, but sampling criteria may overlook the geometric roles of edges. We propose a resistance-curvature-guided sampling framework built on ERC-LG, a curvature approximation method for large-scale graphs. ERC-LG combines Johnson-Lindenstrauss projections with regularized multi-GPU batched conjugate gradient solvers, avoiding explicit Laplacian pseudoinverse computation and full embedding storage. The resulting curvature informs node- and edge-sampling probabilities for constructing GNN training subgraphs. Experiments show numerical agreement with pseudoinverse-based curvature and reduced runtime compared with CG-only computation. ERC-LG-based sampling variants achieve the highest mean accuracy on six of seven real-world datasets in downstream node classification.
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All authors Chaoqun Fei, Tinglve Zhou, Tianyong Hao, Yangyang Li

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Benchmarking Active Spot Selection for Cost-Efficient Spatial Transcriptomics

Spatial transcriptomics (ST) measures gene expression in tissue context, but dense capture grids can be costly and may repeatedly sample morphologically similar regions. Most active learning strategies were developed for categorical labels and independent samples. We conduct a retrospective pool-based benchmark of active learning versus uniform Random sampling for ST, where expression vectors are high-dimensional and continuous and candidates are spatially correlated. Using two fully profiled public ST cohorts, we mask candidate expression vectors and simulate multi-round selection with uncertainty-based Monte Carlo dropout (MC-dropout) and temporal output discrepancy (TOD), and diversity-based CoreSet and TypiClust-inspired selection. We compare 160 completed configurations at 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% of the fold-wide training spot pool under patient-level cross-validation, with a separate full-label reference. Within each budget, strategies share the selection schedule, morphology-to-expression predictor, and optimization protocol. We assess mean per-gene within-slide Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), expression-cluster agreement, and Moran's I fidelity. On HER2-positive breast cancer, pooled mean PCC differences from Random across the four active strategies were -0.0176, -0.0117, +0.0056, and +0.0057 at 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50%, respectively. On cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), three strategies were below Random at 5%, and all four were below Random at 10%. On HER2-positive breast cancer, CoreSet and MC-dropout had lower PCC but higher expression-cluster agreement than Random at the two smallest budgets; this pattern did not reproduce on cSCC. Under the reported fixed training horizons, the evaluated active strategies do not consistently improve on Random at small budgets, and rankings depend on the evaluation measure.
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All authors Zheyu Zhu, Junchao Zhu, Fengbei Liu, Tianyuan Yao, Gelei Xu, John Cannon, Haichun Yang, Yuankai Huo, Mert R. Sabuncu, Ruining Deng

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Prediction with Expert Advice: Anytime Regret with Many Experts Matches the Fixed-Time Constant

Prediction with expert advice is a fundamental problem in online learning. When the time horizon $T$ is known in advance, the minimax cumulative regret over $n$ experts is asymptotically $\sqrt{\frac{T \ln n}{2}}$. This is achieved by the Multiplicative Weights Update algorithm with a learning rate tuned to $T$, and is known to be tight. If instead the regret bound is required to hold simultaneously at every time $t$, the best known guarantee has been $\sqrt{t \ln n}$—a factor of $\sqrt{2}$ worse—and it has remained unknown whether this factor of $\sqrt{2}$ is necessary. We show that it is not. We give an algorithm, requiring no knowledge of the horizon, whose cumulative regret satisfies $R_t \le \bigl(1 + O(\sqrt{\ln \ln n / \ln n})\bigr)\sqrt{t \ln n / 2}$ simultaneously for every $t \ge 1$.
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All authors Yang Cai, Vineet Gupta, Yanchen Jiang, Christopher Liaw, Aranyak Mehta, Grigoris Velegkas, Di Wang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Reliable Federated TinyML Deployment for IoT Security

The growing deployment of Internet of Things (IoT) devices has increased the need for privacy-preserving intrusion detection systems that operate directly on resource-constrained hardware. Federated Learning enables collaborative model training without sharing raw data, but conventional federated models are often too large and unstable for deployment on microcontroller-class devices. TinyML techniques enable compact neural networks but are typically designed for inference-only workloads. This work investigates combining Federated Learning with TinyML-based model compression for intrusion detection in IoT environments. We evaluate compression strategies including knowledge distillation, structured pruning, and quantization within a federated training pipeline. Preliminary results show that training stability plays a critical role in federated TinyML systems. In particular, server-coordinated cosine learning-rate scheduling improves Attack Recall from 46.7% to 93.85% while enabling substantial model compression and efficient edge deployment. These findings provide insights for designing lightweight and privacy preserving intrusion detection systems for IoT devices.
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All authors Younsoo Park, Seokhyoen Bae, Shasi Kumar Ramachandran Prabhu, Suman Saha, Peilong Li

Machine Learning

A Systematic Benchmark of Explainable Methods for Temporal Attribution in Sequential Recommendation Systems

Sequential RecSys are central to modern personalization, exploiting user's historical interaction sequences to drive next-step decisions. Deep learning models, particularly CNN and Transformer-based architectures, have proven highly effective at capturing temporal dependencies in these histories. For transparency and trust, understanding which past interactions drive a given recommendation is increasingly important — both for developers auditing model behavior and for users seeking a rationale. However, the non-linearities that give these models their predictive power also render them black boxes, making it difficult to attribute decisions to specific interactions. While gradient-based, perturbation-based, and attention-based explainability methods exist, a systematic benchmark of their faithfulness for sequential recommendation is missing. We address this gap by introducing a dual-model masking metric in which one model supplies per-timestep attribution scores and a separately trained, masking-robust probe measures the resulting change in predicted probability. Using this metric, we benchmark ten XAI methods across CNN, Transformer, SASRec, and BERT4Rec backbones on KuaiRand and MovieLens, complemented by analyses of temporal attribution patterns, item popularity confounding, and robustness to input corruption. Our key findings are: (1) gradient-based methods, particularly GradientSHAP and Integrated Gradients, yield the most faithful and robust attributions; (2) raw attention weights are unreliable, but gradient-weighted attention restores faithfulness on shorter sequences, with degradation on longer horizons as softmax attention probabilities converge toward uniform importance scores, diminishing the method's ability to identify informative interactions; and (3) temporal attribution patterns in faithful methods reflect genuine task structure rather than recency or popularity bias.
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All authors Akash Pandey, Kanisha Shah, Addrish Roy, Dwipam Katariya, Hongyangyang Shi, Amanda Ding, Kalanand Mishra, Pranab Mohanty

Machine Learning

ZO-COSMO: Index-Free One-Hop Mixing for Decentralized Zeroth-Order Optimization

Sparse communication in decentralized zeroth-order learning requires compatible peer-state coordinates. We characterize this one-hop condition and develop ZO-COSMO, coupling two-query estimation with average-preserving masked consensus using $q$ values per active link. Global supports serve all-neighbor mixing; matching updates require agreement only within each pair. We derive a sharp contraction-per-scalar bound within the matching class and convergence guarantees for the core and sparse-momentum updates. At fixed matching, exact moment identities characterize how shared directions preserve gradient-heterogeneity cancellation and redistribute estimation error and disagreement. Mechanism experiments cover unequal curvatures, noise, and sparse momentum. Further tests span $64$ synthetic agents and eight logical Qwen LoRA workers. At matched payload budgets, Qwen2-7B QNLI gains $3.65$ accuracy points over explicit-index Rand-$k$; edge-local updates gain $3.42$ and $2.53$ points over all-neighbor mixing on eight-worker complete and ring graphs. A matched-first-step ablation gives a $3.92$-point momentum benefit. Seed-aware and same-matching controls distinguish encoding, scheduling, and query correlation.
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All authors Shengjun Zhang, Tingyi Liu, Heng Zhang, Dong Xie

Machine Learning

Data-driven discrete-time deep recurrent neural network-based modeling for dissipative systems

Physical AI has gained increasing attention for its role in developing AI systems that better understand, predict, and control real-world dynamics. Achieving this requires AI models that not only achieve high prediction accuracy but also preserve fundamental physical properties of dynamical systems. In this paper, we propose a deep discrete-time dissipative recurrent neural network (DissipNet) that explicitly enforces dissipativity, a key property related to stability and energy dissipation, through structural weight constraints and a dedicated training algorithm. By construction, the proposed network is capable of learning dissipative dynamics while preserving their inherent stability, which is formally analyzed using Lyapunov theory. In contrast to Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), which incorporate governing equations into the training loss but do not guarantee preservation of internal analytical properties such as dissipativity or passivity, our approach provides explicit guarantees on stability at the model level. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method through several modeling applications, and compare its performance with a naive recurrent neural network (RNN) and a PINN-based model.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Artificial intelligence surrogates for treatment effect estimation with before-and-after data

Estimating the causal effects of medical treatments is difficult when clinically important outcomes are costly to measure or require long follow-up. Short-term or inexpensive surrogate outcomes offer a potential alternative, but surrogate biomarkers may be unavailable or difficult to identify. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have enabled increasingly accurate prediction of clinical outcomes from inexpensive, high-dimensional measurements, which creates an opportunity to use AI predictions themselves as surrogates. To this end, we develop a framework for estimating treatment effects from paired measurements obtained before and after treatment for each treated individual. A pretrained AI model is applied to the before and after measurements, and our estimator compares the resulting outcome predictions. We characterize the technical assumptions under which this within-person contrast identifies the average treatment effect on the treated, even when clinical outcomes are never observed for treated individuals. When these assumptions cannot be justified, we use prediction-powered inference to correct bias using a small number of observed clinical outcomes and obtain valid inference. Synthetic and real-world cardio-oncology experiments demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the approach.
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All authors Frances Dean, Anna Neufeld, Joshua Barrios, Geoffrey H Tison, Ahmed Alaa

Tuesday 22 September

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.comp-ph

Physics-Transfer Learning: A Physics-Constrained Theory for Zero-Shot Generalization Along the Ladder of Complexity

Reliable out-of-distribution generalization remains a central challenge in machine learning, particularly when models are deployed in data-scarce high-fidelity domains. Existing approaches often rely on statistical distribution alignment, or invariance assumptions that can fail when domain shifts reflect changes in underlying mechanisms. Inspired by a longstanding paradigm in physics that understands complex systems by starting from tractable idealizations and progressively incorporating additional mechanisms and levels of fidelity, we propose physics-transfer (PT) learning, a physics-constrained learning theory for zero-shot generalization along a ladder of complexity. PT constructs chains of anchor domains (CADs) that connect low-cost source domains to complex targets and introduces computable feasibility and reliability indicators for assessing transfer before target-domain labels are observed. Under physical-consistency and stable-representation assumptions, we derive an operational upper bound on target risk in terms of source empirical risk, the PT indicators, and finite-sample errors, and establish convergence as adjacent complexity gaps shrink and data coverage improves. We evaluate PT on excited-state energy prediction in quantum systems and dynamical-transition prediction in classical systems using neural networks trained without target-domain labels. Across substantial distribution shifts, PT yields accurate high-fidelity predictions, while the indicators identify incorrect physical mappings before target-domain prediction fails. These results provide a model-agnostic framework for designing, diagnosing, and controlling generalization in data-scarce learning problems.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IT

Logit-Aware MIMO AirComp for Distributed Mixture-of-Experts LLM Inference over Wireless Edge Networks

Distributed mixture-of-experts (MoE) inference is a promising architecture for deploying large language models (LLMs) at wireless edge networks because sparse experts can be placed across coordinated base stations (BSs), while the anchor node and user equipment (UE) can offload LLM inference tasks to BSs. The communication bottleneck is the MoE aggregation, where the anchor BS must recover a weighted sum of selected expert outputs before each decoding step. Over-the-air computation (AirComp) is well matched to this operation because the wireless multiple-access channel naturally superposes simultaneous transmissions. However, conventional AirComp minimizes communication distortion, whereas MoE aggregation errors have unequal impact on LLM outputs. We propose a logit-aware MIMO AirComp framework that estimates local logit sensitivity as block-level weights and jointly optimizes receive combiners and BS precoders under per-BS power constraints. We also develop an alternating algorithm that protects decoding decisions from aggregation perturbations. Using OpenCompass, we evaluate Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct-2507-FP8 on GSM8K and ARC-Challenge. At 30 dB aggregation SNR, perturbed Qwen3 retains 99.3% of clean GSM8K accuracy and 94.8% of clean ARC-Challenge accuracy. In a direct ARC-Challenge closed-loop audit over 295 examples, SW-AirComp achieves 43.73% accuracy at 30 dB and 26.78% at 20 dB, outperforming unweighted, matched-filter, and zero-forcing AirComp. In the wireless simulator, SW-AirComp reduces decision-relevant aggregation distortion; at 20 dB, its final weighted-sum mean-squared error is 53.5% lower than unweighted AirComp under the same channels, samples, and sensitivity weights. Logit-RMSE and logit-gap diagnostics further show that the gain comes from reducing output-logit perturbation and lowering the risk of top-token changes.
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All authors Lyutianyang Zhang, Yunjian Jia, Liu Cao, Dengke Wang, Jinke Ren, Shuguang Cui