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Thursday 23 July

Machine Learning

AI Assistants Overassist

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as tutors and thought partners, helping users reason through problems. While guidance from AI assistants can scaffold thinking and foster learning, such benefits depend on how they help–for instance, intervening too early or too frequently may hinder true learning and cognitive engagement. Yet how AI systems navigate intervention decisions during problem-solving remains poorly understood. Here, we introduce Int-Bench, a simulation-based benchmark for evaluating LLM interventions during learning. Int-Bench simulates a "student" solving a problem while a "teacher" monitors the student's reasoning and decides whether, when, and how to intervene. Across three domains–code debugging, mathematics, and brain teasers–we evaluate LLM teachers on the frequency and timing of interventions, as well as their impact on both immediate task success and generalization to new problems. We also compare LLMs to humans, finding that LLMs intervene more frequently and earlier than humans. Moreover, in contrast to humans, they tend to provide complete solutions rather than targeted hints. These findings suggest that current LLM assistants often optimize for short-term success rather than supporting the reasoning processes needed for deeper learning and long-term success.
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All authors Verona Teo, Raghav Jain, Tobias Gerstenberg, Max Kleiman-Weiner

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Adaptive Depth Sparse Framework: Similarity-Driven Resource Allocation for Pre-Trained LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong generation and reasoning performance, but the Transformer architecture incurs high inference cost. Existing acceleration methods often rely on task-specific fine-tuning or training from scratch, increasing adaptation cost and limiting cross-task usability. We present an Adaptive Depth Sparse Framework (AdaDSF) that converts off-the-shelf pre-trained LLMs into depth-sparse models without full retraining. Our key insight is that layers contribute unequally to representation transformation, characterized by the cosine similarity between layer input and output hidden states. Based on this, AdaDSF assigns layer-wise token retention ratios from similarity statistics, uses a lightweight router to select informative tokens at each layer, and introduces a feature-preserving alignment objective to match intermediate and final representations between sparse and dense models. On GPT-NeoX and Qwen2.5 over language modeling and commonsense reasoning, AdaDSF substantially reduces inference FLOPs while preserving performance close to dense counterparts. Under comparable sparsity, AdaDSF consistently yields smaller accuracy degradation than strong baselines including MoD, D-LLM, and DLO.
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All authors Yidu Wu, Xiang Wang, Kejie Zhao, Zhangchi Wang, Qinghai Guo, Xiaoying Tang

Machine Learning

Multi-Task Learning for Heterogeneous Prediction from Video Game State with Transfer Learning

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a promising approach for prediction tasks derived from video game state data, as modern game telemetry provides multiple related supervision signals from the same structured observations. We study whether a shared model trained jointly across tasks in team-based multiplayer games can improve generalization while reducing training and inference cost compared to specialized single-task models. We adapt a multimodal architecture for endpoint prediction to a general multi-task setting that combines rasterized vision inputs, global match context, and per-unit state information through an image encoder and attention-based interaction modeling. Experiments on a large proprietary World of Tanks dataset compare single-task and multi-task training, evaluate weighting strategies for mixed losses and conflicting gradients, and test pre-training/fine-tuning under limited target-data regimes. We also examine within-game transfer across game maps under structured environment shift.
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All authors Jonas Peché, Aliaksei Tsishurou, Alexander Zap, Günter Wallner

Machine Learning

The Dark Room in the Reward Channel: Dense Prediction Rewards Collapse GRPO-Trained LLM Agents – and The Channel, Not the Content, Decides What Works

Dense per-step supervision is the standard remedy for sparse-reward long-horizon LLM agents: reward the policy for predicting its next observation, which looks provably safe under potential-based shaping. Published prediction-reward and auxiliary-loss variants report both successes and instabilities; we supply the controlled account: 74 preregistered arms dissect one fixed prediction signal under GRPO across ALFWorld, WebShop, a synthetic POMDP, and Qwen3-1.7B/4B/8B, varying only the delivery mechanism. (1) Every run sustaining this difference-form reward under untouched std normalization (no filtering, dynamic-sampling, or decoupling mitigations) collapses: eleven runs across scales, coefficients, group sizes, and groupings (the floor-bound synthetic environment stalls instead); ALFWorld runs end in an absorbing state (prediction accuracy -> 1.0, success -> 0): the optimizer builds the "dark room". The algebra is one line: in all-fail groups z-scoring cancels the shaping coefficient; removing only std normalization restores baseline parity. (2) A signal's danger is set by its within-group variance trajectory, plus hackability as a second axis; it retrodicts every reward-channel collapse and survives preregistered prospective tests. (3) The same signal as a teacher-forced auxiliary loss is harmless on ALFWorld at 4B, but the gain is not the signal's: content-free placebos as a class match or beat gold at both matched seeds (s0: 78.8 vs 68.6; s42: 67.9 vs 57.9); the auxiliary update is the regularizer. (4) At 8B the recipe turns bistable: gold full-weight locks two of three seeds; every content-free or reduced-weight arm stays healthy. No ALFWorld or WebShop reward-channel variant measurably beats its matched-normalization baseline and no gold signal measurably outperforms its content-free placebo: the delivery channel, not the content, decides; which channel is safe is regime-dependent.
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Machine Learning

Filter Learning for Subgraphs: Algebras and Performance Risk Bounds

Graph signal processing tasks that leverage spectral information typically assume access to the complete graph topology, which is often unavailable in practice. We propose a systematic framework for subgraph filter learning (SFL), where subgraph-supported operators approximate ambient graph filters under partial observations. We formulate SFL as a statistical learning problem in which optimal subgraph operators are inherently data-dependent. To address the difficulty of directly estimating such operators, we develop a subgraph filter algebra based on distance-aware Laplacian constructions, defining a structured and controllable class of filters for effective approximation. We further establish performance risk bounds under the least squares loss, quantifying how well the learned operator approximates the restricted ambient mapping. Experiments real-world datasets show that, for SFL tasks, the proposed algebraic models consistently outperform polynomial filters, distribution-agnostic operators, and direct numerical filter learning baselines that attempt to recover the underlying structure from data.
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All authors Purui Zhang, Feng Ji, Yanan Zhao, Bihan Wen, Wee Peng Tay

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

DART: A Degradation-Aware Recurrent Transformer for Archival Film Restoration

Archival film restoration is a challenging problem because historical footage contains compound degradations such as scratches, dust, blur, noise, flicker, and photometric aging, while clean reference videos are unavailable. Existing video restoration methods largely treat these degradations implicitly, reconstructing frames without explicit knowledge of where damage occurs or how severe it is. We propose DART, a degradation-aware recurrent transformer for archival film restoration. DART predicts and propagates a soft defect mask through time, using it to guide temporal fusion and condition the restoration network on both damage location and severity. This makes the restoration process explicitly aware of film artifacts rather than relying only on reconstruction losses. Experiments on real archival benchmarks show that DART improves no-reference perceptual quality over prior restoration architectures while remaining compact and efficient, producing cleaner and more temporally consistent restorations of structured film damage.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Transformer-based Diffusion models for Hydrological Time Series Probabilistic Imputation and Forecasting

The modeling of hydrometeorological time series with limited observations is a key challenge in the monitoring of hydro-systems and water resources, as well as for flood or drought risk assessment. Due to the high variability of the underlying processes and the sparsity of available measurements, traditional statistical approaches often struggle to accurately represent their dynamics. In this context, recent advances in deep learning offer a promising direction for improving the representation and generation of complex temporal processes sampled at several observation sites. This study investigates the application of transformer-based diffusion models to the simulation and reconstruction of hydrological time series. The proposed framework is applied to the joint modeling of water quantity and quality at six sites spread across three adjacent headwater catchments located in North-East France on a limestone plateau covered by forests and field crops. The model is calibrated and validated using available observational data, which has been quality controlled and corrected for sensor drift and malfunction through collaborative efforts by LNE metrology expertise and Andra monthly quality control over more than 15 years. Its performance is compared with several established baseline approaches commonly used for time series modeling. Quantitative evaluation metrics are employed to assess the ability of the proposed method to reproduce key temporal characteristics of the observed signals in two settings: the imputation of incomplete time series and the forecasting of upcoming hydrological conditions. Results support the effectiveness of the transformer-based approach and highlight its capacity to capture and simulate the complex patterns present in hydrological data. In particular, the results indicate that diffusion models can efficiently sample realistic time series distributions under observation settings with variable missing data for both forecasting and imputation.
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All authors Ferdinand Bhavsar, Lionel Benoit, Maxime Savatier, Edith Gabriel

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Do emulated quantum circuits change what CNNs look at? Performance and explainability comparison in medical image classification

Numerous studies have analyzed the use of hybrid quantum-classical convolutional neural networks as a promising alternative to classical deep learning. However, network components on quantum hardware impose fundamental limitations, while the scalability of quantum circuits leads to trainability issues. In this work, we investigate whether small, classically-emulated quantum circuit components can play a meaningful role within complex models, offering an alternative to purely classical convolutional architectures. To this end, we present a systematic study of the effectiveness of a Hybrid Quantum-inspired Convolutional Neural Network (HQiCNN) compared with a parameter-matched classical Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) that differs only in an intermediate dense neural layer. Both models are evaluated on two real-world medical datasets while systematically varying the different hyperparameters, ensuring a fair model comparison that is both dataset and hyperparameter independent. The results show that no architecture consistently dominates the other: the HQiCNN achieves its largest gains in intermediate-data regimes, whereas the CNN reaches the highest accuracies for the largest training sets in both datasets. Furthermore, removing entanglement produces comparable performance while enabling substantially better scalability of quantum simulations, and richer observable sets become beneficial only when sufficient training data are available. Finally, we propose two SHAP-based explainability tools for comparing the predictions between both models, $|SHAP|$IoU and $EMD_{pos}$ metric, to demonstrate that both architectures consistently attend to anatomically plausible regions. Thus, we provide a comprehensive benchmark showing that, under certain conditions, hybrid quantum-inspired models are an alternative that can offer benefits in practical tasks such as medical image classification.
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All authors Guillermo Rubiños Rodríguez, Martín Ottavianelli, Mateo Alonso, Gonzalo Blázquez Gil, Boris-Stephan Rauchmann, Pablo Díez-Valle, Sergio Altares-López

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Explaining Weather Bulletins via ILP

Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) originated within the Logic Programming community in the Nineties as a framework for combining symbolic learning with declarative knowledge representation. Nowadays, mature ILP frameworks exist and they are capable of learning complex, non-monotonic hypotheses, thus broadening both the modeling capabilities and the scope of real-world applications of ILP. This work is primarily based on the FastLAS2 framework and aims to generate simple, interpretable hypotheses to help clarify the weather bulletins issued by OSMER FVG, the Regional Meteorological Observatory of the Italian region of Friuli Venezia-Giulia. In this paper we present a pipeline that, starting from simulated meteorological raw data and from OSMERs' bulletins (used as ground truth), extracts data as ASP facts and generates ILP examples. From such examples an explanatory hypothesis is then inferred via FastLAS2. Such a hypothesis (translated into natural language) explains the weather forecast issued by human experts, and in particular the rationale behind experts' choices of specific symbols in the bulletin pictogram (the symbol-annotated meteorological map of the forecast). The proposed approach is general, not specific to any particular region and it can equally be applied to bulletins from other sources and to different regions.
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All authors Enrico Santi, Alessandro Dal Palù, Agostino Dovier, Talissa Dreossi, Andrea Formisano

Machine Learning

Automated Synthesis and Adversarial Validation of Executable Causal Research Pipelines

While automated research systems promise to accelerate empirical analysis, they are prone to silent failures: instances in which analysis code executes successfully yet relies on invalid causal assumptions. We present the Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Epidemiology Research Assistant (ARA), a framework that makes these failures visible by explicitly encoding causal design principles, study-specific assumptions, and methodological constraints. ARA integrates protocol construction, synthetic data generation, and adversarial validation into a unified pipeline. The framework translates natural language research questions into structured causal protocols and executable analysis code by first constructing a protocol and then generating synthetic datasets using Structural Causal Models (SCMs) with known ground-truth effects. This synthetic-data step can also support pipeline development when access to confidential data, such as medical data, is restricted. The generated analysis is then evaluated under controlled violations of identification assumptions. We evaluate ARA on the Automated Causal Reasoning Benchmark, assessing recovery of identification strategies, causal quantities, treatment and outcome variables, and consistency between generated code and approved protocol. Protocol construction and adversarial validation did not consistently improve numerical agreement with benchmark estimates compared with standard LLM-based generation. However, they changed the failure mode: instead of silently returning causal estimates, ARA often surfaced protocol concerns, diagnostic failures, incomplete inference, or downgraded non-causal interpretations. These findings suggest that validity-first automated science systems should be evaluated not only by answer accuracy, but also by whether they indicate when causal claims are unwarranted.
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Machine Learning

Agree on the Model, Verify the Inference: GKR Protocols for HND-Based Transformer Inference

Outsourced Transformer inference exposes clients to model substitution and incomplete execution, while direct replay removes the computational benefit of delegation. We present GKR-HND, a registered-model protocol for verifying the polynomial backbone of Homomorphic–Nonhomomorphic Decomposition Transformers. The retained verifier checks the GKR transcript and registered-weight openings, but delegates expensive public evaluations to an assigned computation worker. Assuming an honest retained verifier and prover–worker non-collusion, the verifier accepts only when the worker's signed, request-bound response agrees with the proof claims. Experiments with pretrained HND models validate the proof path and the delegated public computation without dense-matrix replay.
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All authors Xiaolong Liang, Juanjuan Li, Rui Qin, Yisheng Lv

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Safety-oriented sidewalk and road segmentation for smartphone-based assistive navigation

Independent sidewalk mobility is essential for blind and visually impaired pedestrians (BVIPs), yet smartphone-based assistive navigation requires perception models that distinguish walkable sidewalks from adjacent unsafe regions. This study presents a safety-oriented semantic segmentation framework for future mobile guidance. We introduce SENSATION-DS, a chest-height pedestrian-view dataset with 2,752 image-mask pairs and nine-class navigation-relevant taxonomy. External urban and sidewalk datasets were harmonized to this label space, and five segmentation architectures were evaluated using staged target-domain adaptation with mask-conditioned synthetic images and Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2) pseudo-labels. Models were assessed using mean Intersection over Union (mIoU), road- and sidewalk-specific metrics, Road-as-Sidewalk Error Rate as a proxy false-safe measure, and Android Open Neural Network Exchange benchmarking. Synthetic augmentation generally improved segmentation accuracy, whereas SAM2 pseudo-labels more consistently reduced Road-as-Sidewalk errors. UPerNet-MobileNetV3 achieved the highest offline mIoU (0.715 +/- 0.006), while DeepLabV3Plus-MobileNetV3 achieved the lowest Road-as-Sidewalk Error Rate (0.079) and highest Android runtime at 512x384 (7.383 FPS). These results show that assistive sidewalk perception should be evaluated jointly by segmentation accuracy, proxy false-safe behavior, and smartphone deployment feasibility, while real-world benefit requires validation with BVIP users. This evaluation supports selecting models that balance accurate perception, conservative error behavior, and practical runtime.
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All authors Hakan Calim, Anamaria Dumitrescu, Adarsh Bhandary Panambur, Huzaifa Asif, Andreas Maier

Machine Learning

Demographically-Informed Heat-Mortality Risk Curves via Risk Graph Neural Networks

Estimating heat-related mortality risk is a core task in environmental epidemiology, typically addressed with Distributed Lag Non-linear Models (DLNMs); interpretable exposure-response surfaces fitted to temperature-mortality time series. DLNMs are effective but ignore demographic and geographic context, despite well-established relevance to heat vulnerability. We propose Risk Graph Neural Networks (RGNNs), a hierarchical GNN encoder that uses granular census features to optimise DLNM coefficient vectors, preserving interpretable risk curve outputs while substantially improving predictive calibration. Evaluated across 10 regions of England and Wales on two unprecedented heat years, RGNN variants maintain both lower point-errors and near-nominal uncertainty coverage during the 2022 heatwave where baselines collapse.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Approximate Quantum State Preparation Through Proximal Policy Optimization

In this work, a quantum architecture search framework for approximate quantum state preparation (QSP) is proposed. QSP is a challenging task, since the search space grows exponentially with the number of qubits, making the identification of the optimal circuit non-trivial. To address this problem, deep reinforcement learning is employed through an agent based on proximal policy optimization. The objective of the agent is to identify the best possible approximation of the target state while simultaneously minimizing the number of gates used. At each step, the agent appends a new gate to the circuit and recomputes the fidelity between the approximated state and the target states. Various experiments have been performed from 2 to 5 qubits. Both predefined states, such as Bell, GHZ, W, and Dicke states, and completely random states are considered. The proposed framework is able to achieve approximation errors of $10^{-14}$.
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Machine Learning

Relative Value Learning

In reinforcement learning, critics typically estimate absolute state values $V(s)$, estimating how good a particular situation is in isolation. However, it turns out that only differences in value are relevant for control. Motivated by this, we propose Relative Value Learning (RV), a framework that learns value differences directly via an antisymmetric function $\Delta(s_i, s_j) = V(s_i) - V(s_j)$. We introduce a pairwise Bellman operator and prove it is a $\gamma$-contraction with a unique fixed point equal to the true value differences, derive well-posed $1$-step, $n$-step and $\lambda$-return targets and reconstruct generalized advantage estimation from pairwise differences to obtain an unbiased policy-gradient estimator (R-GAE). Beyond theoretical results, we integrate RV with PPO and achieve competitive performance on the Atari benchmark (49 ALE games) compared to standard PPO, indicating that relative value estimation is an effective alternative to absolute critics.
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Machine Learning

GlucoTune: A Unified Framework for Blood Glucose Preprocessing, Forecasting, and Benchmarking in Diabetes

Preprocessing blood glucose time-series data is a critical yet often overlooked step in developing data-driven methods for diabetes management, particularly for type 1 diabetes. The lack of standardized preprocessing workflows and evaluation protocols hinders reproducibility and complicates fair comparison across studies. These challenges are further exacerbated by data-sharing restrictions, as privacy and licensing constraints often prevent the redistribution of preprocessed medical datasets. To address these limitations, we present GlucoTune, a comprehensive and extensible framework for reproducible experimentation with blood glucose time-series data. The framework standardizes the entire experimental workflow, from preprocessing to model evaluation, enabling reproducible experiments directly from the original datasets. Reproducible preprocessing is achieved through configurable pipelines defined in portable YAML configuration files, ensuring consistent data handling without distributing sensitive preprocessed data. Beyond preprocessing, GlucoTune provides a unified interface for implementing, training, and evaluating blood glucose prediction models. The framework integrates public datasets through standardized wrappers and provides a curated collection of state-of-the-art blood glucose prediction and general time-series forecasting methods, while remaining readily extensible to additional datasets, preprocessing strategies, and forecasting models. To promote transparent and consistent evaluation, GlucoTune includes a benchmarking leaderboard that reports results across datasets, preprocessing configurations, and forecasting methods, enabling systematic comparison of experimental settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GlucoTune through comprehensive experiments and assess its usability in a user study.
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All authors Davide Marelli, Giorgia Rigamonti, Mirko Paolo Barbato, Paolo Napoletano

Machine Learning

TOUR: A Trajectory-Level Unlearning Benchmark for Offline Reinforcement Learning

Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are trained on fixed behavioral trajectories, which makes trajectory-level deletion important when selected data must be removed after training. Evaluating such deletion is difficult because a lower membership score can reflect trajectory removal, residual memorization visible to another attack, or policy collapse that destroys useful behavior. We introduce Trajectory-level memOrization and Unlearning in offline RL (TOUR), a benchmark that combines trajectory-level partitioning, matched non-member controls, retraining references, retained-performance anchors, and multi-attack privacy auditing. Across D4RL locomotion experiments and an exploratory AntMaze extension, TOUR shows that common deletion baselines have environment-dependent privacy-utility behavior. Retraining and fine-tuning often provide stronger retained-utility references than uniform GA+Refit, while TrajDeleter remains a useful comparator but is not uniformly stronger under the same audit. Reference-model, threshold, deviation, equivalence, action-error, representation-based, and query-limited attacks further show that a single likelihood-based membership score can overstate deletion quality. In the evaluated settings, conclusions about offline RL unlearning are therefore not stable under single-score auditing. They depend on matched non-member construction, retraining-relative calibration, attack family, retained utility, and explicit scope for diagnostic architecture or component-level evidence.
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All authors Chaofan Pan, Lingfei Ren, Xiangyu Jiang, Yanhua Li, Xuemei Cao, Xiangkun Wang, Hao Yu, Wei Wei, Xin Yang

Machine Learning

Smooth Neural Point Processes via B-Splines

Temporal point processes (TPPs) provide a general and flexible framework for modeling sequences of events in continuous time. Neural networks have been successfully employed to model TPPs in a highly expressive and data-driven way. Neural TPPs are typically trained via Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) by minimizing the negative log-likelihood (NLL), which depends on both the conditional intensity function (CIF) and its integral over time, the compensator. Recent neural TPP approaches enable exact evaluation of the NLL without numerical integration. However, these methods typically model the compensator rather than the CIF directly, impose constraints on the neural network architecture, and are computationally expensive during training, as event contributions to the NLL are evaluated sequentially rather than in parallel. In this work, we propose a novel neural TPP model that directly parametrizes the CIF as a non-negative combination of B-spline basis functions, whose coefficients are predicted by a neural network. This formulation enables exact evaluation of the NLL, preserves full flexibility in the neural architecture, allows efficient parallelization during training, and naturally supports CIF smoothness regularization through the integrated squared second derivative. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show improved computational efficiency and predictive accuracy compared to the reference neural TPP baseline.
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All authors Michele Bellomo, Riccardo Ramaschi, Alberto Dolara, Tomaso Aste

Machine Learning

A Polynomial Architecture-Attribution Co-Design Framework for Exact Aumann-Shapley Attribution in GNNs

We study feature-level and node-level explanations for graph neural networks (GNNs) through the lens of Aumann-Shapley attribution. Path-integral methods such as Integrated Gradients provide an axiomatic formulation of attribution, but their practical use in deep GNNs typically relies on finite-sample numerical approximations to the path integral, requiring a trade-off between quadrature error and computational cost. This paper proposes APEX, a model-attribution co-design framework that makes the attribution integral exactly computable under a polynomial GNN architecture. The key component is PolyGIN, a GIN-style graph network whose message-passing, normalization, and transformation operations preserve a bounded multivariate polynomial form for scalar model scores, such as pre-softmax logits. We show that, for a PolyGIN with $L$ polynomial transformation blocks, the derivative along the attribution path has degree at most $2^L-1$. Therefore, Gauss–Legendre quadrature can evaluate the Aumann–Shapley path integral exactly, up to floating-point precision, with $2^{L-1}$ deterministic evaluation points. The resulting attributions can be computed at the feature level and then aggregated into node-level scores while preserving completeness. Experiments on synthetic and real-world graph benchmarks show that PolyGIN maintains competitive predictive performance, while the complete APEX framework achieves higher attribution fidelity than the compared baselines and substantially reduces the number of evaluations required for path integration.
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All authors Bizu Feng, Zhimu Yang, Shuming Wang, Shaode Yu, Yuan Cheng, Xiaojun Qian, Zixin Hu

Machine Learning

Training Large Language Models for Self-Explanation Faithfulness

We propose a Reinforcement Learning (RL) method to directly optimize the faithfulness of self-explanations - the extent to which a model's generated reasoning accurately reflects its internal decision-making process. While existing work focuses on evaluating faithfulness or using inference-time prompting frameworks to improve an LLM's self-explanation's tractability, these approaches do not provide a mechanism to directly optimize a model's parameters to generate faithful self-explanations. We bridge this gap by modifying existing faithfulness metrics into an RL training objective. We investigate (1) if models can be trained to accurately detect factors that affect their decisions, and (2) whether RL can directly optimize for the disclosure of these factors thereby improving LLM self-explanations' faithfulness. We experiment with two intervention types: random-word insertions and user-bias insertions, using a per-sample reward derived from the Phi-CCT correlation metric. RL fine-tuned Llama3.1-8B and Qwen3-8B show substantial improvements on the Phi-CCT faithfulness metric, with in-distribution scores rising from near-zero to as high as 0.664, and out-of-distribution scores reaching up to 0.691 on held-out tasks such as StrategyQA. Cross-intervention generalization is weaker but more interesting: a priori we would not expect a model trained only on random word insertions to generalize to user-bias phrases, yet Llama3.1-8B shows non-zero transfer in this direction. The reverse direction and Qwen3-8B do not replicate this, indicating model-dependent and setup-dependent effects we cannot yet explain. Lastly we analyze model behavior to rule out reward gaming behaviors that often plague RL training. Ultimately, we show that models can be trained to implicitly identify influential factors and disclose them, offering a scalable path toward reducing unfaithful reasoning in LLMs.
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All authors Yeoktatt Cheah, María Pérez-Ortiz, Noah Y. Siegel, Oana-Maria Camburu

Machine Learning

CASC: Causal Adversarial Subspace Clustering for Multivariate Spatiotemporal Data

Deep subspace clustering plays a critical role in applications involving multivariate spatiotemporal data, such as sea ice monitoring, disease spread analysis, and tracking neuro-degeneration over time. Despite recent advances, existing methods primarily rely on geometric self-expressiveness, assume static subspace structures, and often fail to capture causal dependencies, local spatial interactions, and long-range temporal dynamics inherent in complex spatiotemporal systems. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Causal Adversarial Subspace Clustering (CASC) framework for discovering evolving latent regimes in high-dimensional spatiotemporal data. CASC integrates a U-Net-inspired deep adversarial clustering architecture with stacked FAConvLSTM layers to preserve spatial and temporal structure while learning robust latent representations. A graph attention transformer-based self-expressive network is introduced to jointly model local spatial relationships, global dependencies, and long-range temporal interactions. Furthermore, we propose two new learning objectives: (1) a Causal Subspace Preservation Loss that aligns self-expression coefficients with latent causal relationships, encouraging clusters to reflect underlying causal processes rather than simple feature similarity, and (2) a Dynamic Temporal Subspace Evolution Loss that captures evolving subspace structures and temporal regime transitions in nonstationary environments. Together, these components transform deep subspace clustering from a correlation-driven paradigm into a causal-temporal regime discovery framework.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Automatic knot selection in smooth additive models

B-spline regression constitutes a widely used framework for nonparametric modeling. The performance of this methodology depends on specifying the number and placement of changepoints, known as knots, prior to the estimation process. Such knot sequence determines the dimension of the B-spline basis used to represent the regression function and the number of coefficients to be estimated. Therefore, the knots' choice affects the model's flexibility, influencing its smoothness and goodness-of-fit. Traditionally, this problem has been addressed either by explicitly selecting knots, via knot-selection algorithms, or by regularization methods, such as P-splines, which automatically tune the regressor's smoothness. The latter have become the standard in generalized additive models (GAMs). In contrast, knot-selection techniques, frequently neglected because of computational or modeling limitations, provide certain advantages which can be valuable in some contexts. In this work, we introduce a novel explicit knot-selection technique for GAMs based on an extension of the adaptive splines (A-splines) knot selection methodology, combined with a customized Fellner-Schall scheme for tuning the associated parameters. Our approach is evaluated on various synthetic and real datasets and compared with P-splines and state-of-the-art knot-selection techniques. The results indicate comparable performance, while producing models built on a substantially smaller number of basis elements.
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Machine Learning

Nipping the Butterfly Effect in the Bud: Self-Output Fine-Tuning for Autoregressive Weather Prediction

Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm. Although the autoregressive pipeline is highly scalable and flexible, its prediction errors grow rapidly over long forecasting horizons. In this work, we study this error growth phenomenon from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Our analysis reveals that the growth is driven by a feedback loop between output errors and input distribution shifts. Specifically, the autoregressive process amplifies small initial output errors, which progressively corrupt subsequent input distributions, echoing the butterfly effect in atmospheric science and ultimately deteriorating forecasting accuracy over longer horizons. Furthermore, we show that this distributional shift originates at the earliest stage of inference, with out-of-distribution signatures detectable as early as the first autoregressive step. To mitigate this issue, we propose Self-Output Fine-Tuning (SOFT), a plug-and-play strategy that leverages the model's own one-step predictions to calibrate the biased input distribution encountered at the first step. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, despite its simplicity, SOFT achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon forecasting tasks and substantially reduces both prediction errors and distributional discrepancy. The success of SOFT highlights the importance of reexamining the fundamental pipeline of deep learning weather prediction, representing a critical pipeline advance for atmospheric science.
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Machine Learning

Spectral Transformation for Layer-wise Global Rank Discovery in Federated LoRA for Vision Transformers

Fine-tuning Vision Transformers (ViTs) with low-rank adapters (LoRA) promises better communication efficiency under federated setup, yet existing aggregation strategies face fundamental limitations. Independently averaging these LoRA factors is mathematically inconsistent, introducing cross-term aggregation error. In contrast, approaches that preserve heterogeneous client ranks by concatenating local adapters on the server substantially increase download cost and often require merging global LoRA updates into pretrained weights on the clients, causing reinitialization lag and unstable convergence. Other approaches further increase server-side overhead by reconstructing dense weight updates or training auxiliary models to refine aggregation error. In this work, we propose SpecTraL, spectral transformation for layer-wise global rank discovery, that resolves these challenges within a unified design. SpecTraL stacks local LoRA modules from clients and performs orthonormal Householder Transformation of the stacked adapters directly in the low-rank latent space, eliminating dense reconstruction of the global update and any auxiliary refinement on the server. By leveraging the Spiked Covariance Model from Random Matrix Theory, SpecTraL analytically separates the global consensus signal from non-IID noise, discovering optimal layer-wise global ranks without manual hyperparameter tuning. To match local ranks in subsequent rounds, we introduce a padding-aware initialization framework that lets clients incorporate residual LoRA dimensions without re-merging them into the pre-trained base model. Experiments on federated fine-tuning of ViT-B/16 and ViT-L/16 over DomainNet and NICO++ demonstrate improved accuracy-communication trade-offs, reduced server computation, and elimination of hyperparameter search for rank selection. Our code is available at https://github.com/DASS-Lab-Group/SpecTraL
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Machine Learning

From Evaluation to Optimisation: Hierarchy-Aware Training Signals for CWE Prediction in Python

The original ALPHA benchmark introduced a taxonomy-aware penalty for evaluating CWE-level vulnerability prediction in Python and proposed that the penalty could theoretically also serve as a training signal. This paper provides that validation. We compare three delivery mechanisms: supervised fine-tuning, a dual-head classification loss, and reinforcement learning with a dense reward derived from the normalised penalty. We find that supervised approaches consistently regress below the zero-shot baseline under distribution shift, while GRPO succeeds. Our best policy reduces the cumulative ALPHA penalty of Qwen2.5-Coder-7B on Security Hardening and Adversarial Testing (SVEN) dataset by 27.9% under greedy decoding, and by 25.5% under sampled decoding(p = 0.005, Welch's t-test), reaching statistical parity with its 4.5x larger zero-shot teacher. We conclude that the value of a hierarchical penalty as a training signal depends largely on the directness of its delivery.
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Machine Learning

Counterfactual Explainability Framework With CycleGAN And Counterfactual-Classifier Alignnment Score for Retinal Disease Classification

Automated detection of vision impairing retina-based ocular conditions from fundus images is important for early screening, timely referral and reducing dependency on specialist-only assessment, for which neural network-based deep learning (DL) models have been widely utilized. However, explainability of the DL frameworks remains a major bottleneck for clinical adoption, particularly when model decisions are not linked to retinal regions that are clinically meaningful. To address this issue, this study presents CounterFundus, a novel CycleGAN-driven counterfactual explainability framework, integrating EfficientNet-B5-based retinal disease detection with visually interpretable disease-to-normal fundus image translation. For each pathological image, the counterfactual yielded by the CycleGAN generator represents an estimated healthy counterpart and the resultant difference map is utilized to localize disease-associated retinal changes. Unlike conventional post-hoc saliency methods, CounterFundus provides counterfactual explanations through visually plausible disease-to-normal retinal translation. Thereafter, to quantify the spatial agreement between counterfactual difference maps and classifier saliency, the Counterfactual-Classifier Alignment Score (CCAS) is introduced, embedding Spearman correlation, binary IoU and pointing accuracy into a single assessment protocol. To this end, EigenCAM-aligned evaluation demonstrates that the generated counterfactual explanations remain spatially consistent with classifier-relevant retinal evidence across all CCAS dimensions. Along with that, ablation studies further confirm that CCAS-filtered counterfactual augmentation improves the downstream classification performance in fundus images, establishing CounterFundus as a clinically-grounded, explainable artificially intelligence (XAI) framework for retinal disease detection.
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Machine Learning

Regularized Optimization on Grassmann Manifold: Theory, Algorithm and Applications

Spectral methods are among the most widely used techniques for community detection, clustering, and graph learning. Their performance, however, critically depends on the accurate estimation of the underlying spectral subspace and can deteriorate substantially in the presence of noise, outliers, or model perturbations. To address this limitation, we propose a Regularized Projection Matrix Approximation (RPMA) framework for robust estimation of rank-$K$ projection matrices. RPMA extends classical spectral projection by incorporating a regularization term, producing projection estimates that are more robust, sparse, and interpretable. We formulate the proposed model as an optimization problem on the manifold of rank-$K$ projection matrices and exploit its geometric equivalence to the Grassmann manifold. Based on this manifold characterization, we derive the first- and second-order optimality conditions, establish the local stability of the regularized leading eigenspace, and characterize the stability of the critical-point landscape under sufficiently small regularization. To efficiently solve the resulting nonconvex optimization problem, we develop a Riemannian gradient projection algorithm with backtracking line search, together with a more efficient Cayley–Sherman–Morrison–Woodbury (Cayley–SMW) gradient method that avoids repeated eigendecompositions. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that RPMA substantially improves the recovery accuracy of projection matrices and consistently outperforms conventional spectral projection methods for community detection and clustering under noisy environments.
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Machine Learning

Weight-norm Criticality: A Mechanism for Loss Spikes Induced by the Normalization and Weight Decay

Most explanations of training instability focus on learning-rate criticality, typically characterized by the Edge of Stability, beyond which optimization becomes unstable. We argue that, in practical deep neural network training, there is an additional and often overlooked weight-norm criticality. This criticality is induced by the interaction between normalization (which introduces scale-invariant components) and weight decay (which persistently shrinks parameter norms). As the weight decay coefficient increases, the norms of scale-invariant weights are progressively driven toward zero. Meanwhile, the sharpness of the loss landscape increases rapidly, destabilizing the optimization dynamics and resulting in abrupt loss spikes. This perspective provides a rationale for why weight penalties can improve generalization yet cannot be made arbitrarily strong: excessive decay drives scale-invariant weight norms past a critical boundary and destabilizes training. Our work provides a new mechanistic understanding of loss spikes through the lens of weight-norm criticality. Moreover, weight-norm criticality yields testable predictions that we validate empirically in networks with scale-invariant components, providing empirical support for the proposed mechanism.
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Machine Learning

ADABORD: a novel AdaBoost approach for ordinal classification

Ordinal Classification (OC) deals with classification tasks where the classes follow a natural order. Despite the progress in OC, many existing approaches fail to fully leverage the ordinal information, treating the problem as nominal classification and thereby losing performance potential. In this work, ADABORD, an AdaBoost framework specifically designed for ordinal classification problems, is introduced. The ordinal nature of the classes is incorporated into two key components of the well-known AdaBoost algorithm: 1) the base estimator, where decision trees with the ordinal Gini splitting criterion are proposed; 2) the error function used to update sample weights at each stage and the weights of the classifier in the final ensemble model, given by the absolute ranked probability score, a measure that accounts for both the ordering and the distance between classes. ADABORD is extensively compared against seven state-of-the-art methods on the TOC-UCO repository, the largest benchmark collection for OC to date. The experimental results, supported by statistical analysis, show that ADABORD significantly outperforms competing methods, particularly on datasets with five or more classes, where the ordinal structure becomes more pronounced. Source code, along with all experimental protocols, is publicly available to ensure reproducibility and facilitate future research in OC.
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All authors Rafael Ayllón-Gavilán, Francisco José Martínez-Estudillo, David Guijo-Rubio, César Hervás-Martínez, Pedro A. Gutiérrez

Machine Learning

The Weight of Silence: A Causal Case for Weights Over the Scratchpad in Latent Chess Reasoning

Latent, or silent, reasoning lets language models carry out intermediate computation in continuous vector space instead of words, and is widely assumed to function as an internal scratchpad the model consults during inference. Whether that assumption survives reinforcement learning has not been tested directly: existing causal analyses of latent reasoning are confined to math and logic tasks, comparing reliance on thoughts within one checkpoint, never before and after RL. We train a chess-playing model through a staged latent-reasoning curriculum followed by reinforcement learning, and find legality climbs monotonically to 61% (from a 48% pre-RL baseline) while checkmate confabulation is eliminated entirely. To locate this gain, we run a six-condition causal intervention suite on the same model before and after RL: substituting or noising the thought vectors leaves performance unchanged, ablating them costs only mild degradation, and only exact-zero vectors cause collapse. This robustness gap is itself the finding: under exact-zero corruption, legality collapses to 1% pre-RL versus 9% post-RL, a gap that survives correction across the full battery. A 10x-larger replication of the post-RL checkpoint's own battery confirms this: removing the thoughts, with or without restoring sequence length, also reaches significance; substitution and noise remain indistinguishable from baseline. RL appears to add robustness to disruption, not reliance on thought content. These results push back against the field's default assumption that latent thoughts function as an actively consulted inference-time scratchpad, and instead indicate latent reasoning's principal effect here is shaping the model's parameters during training. We also demonstrate a working RL gain in chess, where multiple groups report the same latent-reasoning-plus-RL recipe failing to improve accuracy over SFT.
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2607.20952 · 23 Jul · 28 pages, 5 figures, preprint also available at Zenodo: https://zenodo.org/records/21619703 v2: added statistical significance testing on the n=1000 causal battery replication (Appendix A.8), added SVD-based weight-space rank analysis (Appendix A.11), corrected false-checkmate rate to reflect larger-sample data