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Saturday 18 July

Machine Learning

When Can Safe Controllers Adapt? Information before Commitment

Safe adaptive control is online adaptation under a safety guarantee on the learning trajectory itself. The controller may use any causal, history-dependent rule and act differently across environments as data arrive. Only its safety guarantee is uniform: the same rule must satisfy it under every initially plausible model. Performance is measured against a safe oracle that knows the realized model. Many finite-time analyses assume persistent excitation of the uniformly safe closed loop, so the data distinguish every pair of models requiring different control decisions. Under that assumption, feasibility is already settled; only the rate remains. We ask instead: Do the safety constraints permit such an informative experiment at all? While an alternative remains plausible, the controller must preserve a safe continuation under it. We call the first action that forecloses such a continuation commitment. Chance safety allows commitment only on an event rare under the alternative, and the evidence must arrive beforehand: the observation generated by the committing action is too late. We define precommitment information as the KL divergence between learner-visible laws stopped before commitment. Our main result is a causal reduction. The commitment rule determines (1) the probability that safety permits commitment under the alternative, (2) the target-side cost of remaining noncommittal, (3) and the information available when the decision is made. Bounded precommitment information therefore leaves a fixed fraction of the oracle gap unavoidable. If the gap is {\Omega}(T), every uniformly safe policy has linear regret. We establish the obstruction in a constrained linear system with quadratic regulation cost. We also prove recovery in special cases and derive semidefinite upper certificates for deterministic linear-Gaussian systems.
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Machine Learning

TVGL-CFM:Generating and Forecasting Time-Varying Trajectories of Dynamic Networks with Conditional Flow Matching

Many complex systems, including brain networks, financial markets, and gene-regulatory circuits, are better described by interaction structures that evolve over time than by a single fixed graph. The time-varying graphical lasso (TVGL) estimates this structure from multivariate signals as a temporally coherent sequence of sparse precision matrices. We introduce TVGL-CFM, a unified generative framework that learns distributions over complete SPD precision-matrix trajectories without requiring a pre-specified graph, supporting both class-conditional generation and history-conditioned forecasting. An SPD trajectory with T windows lies on the product Riemannian manifold (S++^p)^T. We construct a global log-Euclidean diffeomorphism from this product space to a Euclidean sequence space, enabling a non-autoregressive conditional flow-matching model with a Transformer backbone to generate all windows jointly and decode them to SPD matrices without post-hoc projection. For forecasting, we use two distinct data-dependent couplings so that the flow transforms an informative prior into a coherent future block. Across EEG motor-imagery data and three nonlinear dynamical systems, TVGL-CFM preserves class-discriminative dependency structure and forecasts future connectivity more accurately than several strongly matched baselines, opening new possibilities for generative dynamic graph models.
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Machine Learning

Certified-Gap Dual-Price Policies for Real-Time Truckload Bid Acceptance with Relocating, Clock-Constrained Resources

A truckload carrier must accept or reject each load tender within seconds. The decision depends on fleet state, hours-of-service (HOS) clocks, and appointment windows. We model this as a weakly coupled dynamic program in which the resources relocate and carry clocks: serving a request moves the truck to a new market and depletes its clocks, and whether a truck can serve a request depends on its state. Occupancy-based reusable-resource models do not cover this setting. We build a real-time dual-price policy from the same Lagrangian relaxation that gives the problem's upper bound. Policy and bound come from one object, so every run reports a certified optimality gap. We prove three things. First, the certificate is valid for any duals, any discretization, and any surrogate quality. Second, the policy's same-time spatial-gradient rule is exactly fluid complementary slackness, and the policy is asymptotically optimal in the subcritical fluid regime; the fitted prices are also portable across sample paths, by linear-programming basis stability. Third, certificates have limits: per-resource Lagrangian slack can stay bounded away from zero at every fleet size. We exhibit a three-truck kernel with an exact rational certificate and a replication lemma. On a public closed-loop benchmark with thirty paired seeds, the policy – which needs no rollout labels, only one offline dual solve – beats a rollout-trained surrogate on two of three scenarios (tight: +2.0 pp, 95% CI [+0.5, +3.6], Wilcoxon p = 0.023; mild: +3.5 pp, CI [+2.4, +4.5]) and ties the third. It decides in 0.04-0.09 ms, three orders of magnitude faster than the Monte Carlo rollout teacher. Its certificates are stable across ten bounded instances per scenario, at 57-64% of optimal, within 3-6 points of what the 1000x-slower teacher certifies.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Transferable Low-Rank Convolutional Bases for Onboarding Unseen Medical Imaging Modalities

Deploying a medical imaging model that must later accommodate a modality it has never seen is a recurring practical problem: retraining the shared representation is expensive and destroys performance on the modalities already in service. We study this onboarding problem under a strict leave-one-domain-out protocol, in which a convolutional backbone is pre-trained on source modalities (Kidney CT and Brain MRI), frozen permanently, and then required to accommodate an unseen modality (Chest X-ray). Under this protocol we establish three findings. First, decision-layer parameter-efficient fine-tuning is insufficient when the backbone has never observed the target modality: a linear probe and fully-connected LoRA both fall well short, whereas convolutional LoRA recovers most of the achievable accuracy, showing that adaptation must reach the convolutional features. Second, and centrally, the low-rank convolutional basis learned on the source modalities transfers: freezing that basis and training only its up-projections onboards the unseen modality using just $0.78\%$ of full fine-tuning's parameters, at an accuracy $6.11$ percentage points above a random basis of identical size, while an equivalent decision-layer basis exhibits no reliable transfer. Third, adapter-based onboarding leaves source-modality accuracy exactly unchanged ($\Delta = 0.00$ pp), whereas full fine-tuning reaches the highest target accuracy only by catastrophically degrading the source modalities. A Mahalanobis score on frozen backbone features detects the unseen modality with high sensitivity at a strict source-retention threshold, providing a practical trigger for when onboarding is required. All results are reported over three seeds with paired bootstrap confidence intervals.
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All authors Ranat Das Prangon, Istiaque Ahmed, Shajid Hasan Naim, Waseem Mustak Zisan, Hossain Md Shakhawat

Machine Learning

HyBDM: Multi-Scale Hybrid Experts for Time Series Forecasting with Bidirectional Dependency Modeling

Time series forecasting (TSF) is vital to many applications, yet existing models often struggle to capture the heterogeneous long-range global patterns and short-range local variations in multivariate time series. While some approaches partially model these dependencies, they often do not jointly exploit temporal and feature-wise information. To address this challenge, we propose HyBDM, a multi-scale hybrid model that decomposes temporal dynamics into global patterns and local variations, which are modeled by two specialized experts. The Global Patterns Expert employs an enhanced BiConv-Mamba module that integrates bidirectional convolutions, an M-SSM layer, a forgetting mechanism, and a GDD-MLP module for cross-channel modeling. The Local Variations Expert uses a Local Window Transformer (LWT) to perform efficient locality-aware attention with reduced computational complexity. In addition, a Multi-Scale Patcher and a Long-Short Router enable multi-resolution representations and adaptive fusion of the two experts. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show that HyBDM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency, demonstrating its effectiveness in bridging global-local dependencies for multivariate TSF.
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All authors Wenqiang Ma, Chen Cheng, Xue Cheng, Jiarui Ye

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SP

Hierarchical Wireless Foundation Model for Multi-Task Optimization

The increasing complexity of next-generation wireless networks has driven the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into wireless communications. However, most existing studies focus on developing task-specific deep learning techniques for single scenarios, which limits their ability to generalize across diverse tasks, channel conditions, and system configurations. To address this generalization bottleneck, we propose a hierarchical wireless foundation model (WFM) for multi-task optimization. The proposed WFM couples an upstream foundation channel encoder (FCE) with a downstream foundation optimization decoder (FOD) via geometry-aware cross-attention. Specifically, the FCE extracts task-agnostic channel representations via self-supervised masked reconstruction while the FOD generates multi-task optimization decisions through differentiable output heads. Moreover, a hybrid supervised-to-unsupervised training strategy is employed to overcome the performance ceiling of purely supervised learning, and the modular architecture of the WFM enables efficient adaptation to unseen communication tasks with minimal parameter overhead. Simulation results show that the proposed WFM learns high-fidelity channel representations and achieves competitive multi-task optimization performance while substantially reducing optimization inference latency relative to numerical baselines. Furthermore, it exhibits robust generalization to unseen propagation environments, varying constraint parameters, and heterogeneous system configurations.
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All authors Yangjing Wang, Ouya Wang, Shenglong Zhou, Geoffrey Ye Li

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Trace-Based On-Policy Distillation for Masked Diffusion Language Models

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) are a promising alternative to autoregressive generation. However, reasoning-oriented post-training for dLLMs remains challenging. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) for dLLMs requires dense but often off-policy masked states, while reinforcement learning (RL) relies on sparse rewards or value modeling. This paper proposes trace-based on-policy distillation (TOPD), a teacher-supervised framework that transfers reasoning ability to a target dLLM without reward estimation. The key idea is to supervise a dLLM on its own denoising trajectory, focusing on the trace-aligned token decisions that form the final response. Specifically, TOPD samples on-policy diffusion trajectories from the target dLLM, obtains teacher token distributions from a teacher model on the corresponding partially denoised states, and updates the target dLLM with a token-level Reverse Kullback-Leibler (Reverse-KL) objective. This design preserves dense teacher supervision while aligning training with the model's own denoising states. On mathematical reasoning benchmarks, TOPD enables SDAR-4B-Chat to match the MATH500 accuracy of its RL-trained counterpart TraDo-4B-Instruct, with gains of +5.7 under static evaluation and +4.5 under dynamic evaluation. Compared with the RL-trained counterpart, TOPD achieves this with 4$\times$ fewer rollout rounds, corresponding to an estimated 96.0$\times$ to-accuracy model-compute speedup.
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All authors Haolin Ren, Ziyang Huang, Chenhao Yuan, Jun Zhao, Kang Liu

Machine Learning

Bridging battery design and health assessment through virtual sensing and physics-informed learning

Supercharging of lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) requires robust health monitoring to ensure durability, safety, and user confidence, particularly for emerging vehicle-to-grid applications with bidirectional energy flows. Yet battery management remains largely disconnected from the material and structural origins of aging, limiting both interpretable health assessment and informed battery design. Here we propose a physics-informed learning framework with virtual sensing that infers hard-to-measure design parameters, including solid-state diffusion coefficient, electrode thickness, ion concentration, and particle size, directly from standard battery management system (BMS) measurements. Across diverse fast-charging strategies and driving profiles, embedding a digital-twin-derived particle-cracking mechanism as a soft constraint reduces trajectory and lifetime prediction errors by 6-8 times relative to state-of-the-art machine learning baselines using only 2% early-life observations. We further show that accurate degradation extrapolation does not require fully resolved governing equations; validated partial mechanisms, jointly refined with limited data, provide sufficient guidance. Virtual sensing transforms standard charging signals into latent design variables without additional sensors, bridging observable battery behavior and underlying aging processes while reducing capacity loss error by up to 39%, end-of-life (EOL) error by 17%, and prediction variability by up to 54%, enabling real-time exploration of new battery configurations. More broadly, the proposed framework establishes a practical feedback loop between deployment and development, demonstrating how real-world operation can continuously inform upstream design decisions across complex multiphysics systems.
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All authors Wendi Guo, Søren Byg Vilsen, Daniel Ioan Stroe, Yaqi Li, Yicun Huang, Ashima Verma, Daniel Brandell

Machine Learning

Principled Direction-Free Intrinsic Motivation through Model-Free Epistemic Free-Energy Estimators

Across environments with mixed sources of uncertainty, unsupervised reinforcement learning requires intrinsic motivation that does not precommit to a particular direction of surprise. Surprise minimization is scoped by design to “unstable” environments. Prediction-error curiosity rewards total expected surprise, including irreducible noise. Bandit or mixture switching between surprise-minimizing and surprise-maximizing rewards reintroduces non-stationarity by construction. We propose a single intrinsic reward, stationary within each window, derived from the novelty contribution of a preference-free Expected Free Energy objective, expressed in reward-maximization form. Our claim is that parameter information gain, the expected surprise of the next state minus its irreducible part, is the appropriate intrinsic signal in both high-entropy and low-entropy components of the state space. Maximizing it seeks exactly the surprise the model can explain away. In regions of unresolved dynamics, this epistemic term drives exploration. As dynamics become resolved, the epistemic term vanishes, while an aleatoric penalty favors lower-variance transitions, all without fitting an explicit next-state predictor. A pseudocount supplies epistemic value, a probe-based penalty captures aleatoric variance, and a short-horizon gate protects informative successors. A window-based freeze of all reward-defining objects yields a stationary Bellman operator, explicit bounds on learning targets, and a conditional uniform-concentration result for the nonparametric estimators under mixing, smoothness, bandwidth, and capacity assumptions. In active-inference terms, the agent is preference-free where novelty is retained, standard likelihood ambiguity vanishes under full observability, a nonstandard transition-entropy penalty is added, and surprise minimization emerges in resolved regions of the state space.
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Machine Learning

Beyond Memory Leaderboards: Evaluating Scientific Memory as Budgeted Context Restoration

Long-term memory is becoming a core component of LLM agents, but most memory benchmarks evaluate conversations or compact summaries, while research agents need to restore evidence from full scientific papers. We introduce two full-text scientific-memory benchmarks, Public AI Memory (PAIM; 81 papers, 66 questions) and Public Transformers (PTr; 252 papers, 98 questions). We evaluate eight memory/retrieval systems, including our own proposed Theoria, plus a no-retrieval baseline. Our results show that memory leaderboards are not interpretable without the full protocol: ingestion granularity, raw-text preservation, retrieval budget, retrieval modality, rubric audit, and judge choice all affect the outcome. For example, on PAIM Graphiti wins convincingly but uses 2.6M characters of retrieved context per query, and after controlling for retrieval budget the lead disappears. On PTr, for the systems where BM25 retrieval can be added cleanly, the sparse-dense hybrid is the single most significant intervention: hybrid variants of Simple RAG, Mem0, and Theoria tie for the lead within 0.03 points. Multi-judge and human side-by-side calibration show that LLM-as-a-judge rankings are consistent across frontier judges and agree with human evaluation, with an effective resolution of roughly one point on a ten-point scale. We argue that scientific memory should be evaluated as budgeted, modality-aware context restoration rather than as an unconstrained architecture leaderboard, and we release the datasets, harness, raw outputs, judgments, and scripts to reproduce our results and serve as tools for such evaluation. Our code is available at http://gitlab.com/quantellence/research/scientific-recall-bench , and the datasets are available at http://huggingface.co/datasets/quantellence/srb-data .
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Machine Learning

First-Order Predictable but Pairwise Fragile: Local Task Adaptation in Trained Transformers

Task arithmetic, sequential fine-tuning, activation steering, and first-order random search all operate through relatively small perturbations around an already trained checkpoint, and they rely on different local approximations: individual perturbations should be first-order predictable, task updates should compose with controlled interference, useful tangent structure should be stable and possible to estimate, and weight edits should have counterparts in representation space. We measure 8 such properties with the same harness around a multitask LoRA operating point, on 9 transformers (82M-7B), with a prospectively registered property list, thresholds, and test split. We find a shared one-direction validity window up to the tested scale $10^{-2}$, but no universal radius for pairwise composition or update ordering. Along individual directions, changes of the probe loss remain first-order predictable throughout the grid: a perturbation's effect on the loss is essentially its projection onto the gradient, which is also what makes local random search work. Pairwise structure, however, proves to be far more fragile: on over a third of the measured (model, task pair) combinations, two-update order sensitivity sets in strictly inside that window; task-gradient subspaces rotate within tens of steps; additivity under our fixed activation probe fails at full task-vector scale on several models, including both held-out 7B models; and no model median passes the registered global mean-vector weight-to-steering correspondence bar. For two sequential task-gradient steps, the leading order-dependent term is the Lie bracket $H_B\textbf{g}_A-H_A\textbf{g}_B$; its normalized prediction $c(\eta)=\eta\kappa+O(\eta^2)$ tracks the measured defect at median ratio 1.002, while the onset scale $\eta^\dagger\approx0.10/\kappa$ spans three orders of magnitude across models and task pairs.
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Machine Learning

Honest Physical-Support Inference after Latent Dictionary Learning: Collision Singularities and Minimax Resolution

Sparse-support uncertainty is usually quantified by treating the dictionary as known, an assumption that can produce overconfident, label-dependent conclusions when the dictionary is learned from latent sparse mixtures. Near collisions of coherent atoms, a test signal may identify the active physical group even though the training data cannot distinguish the physical rays within it. We develop inference for active physical rays, unit atoms modulo sign, after latent dictionary learning. In a fixed-dimensional Gaussian train-test experiment, we retain all dictionaries compatible with a robust training-moment region, profile the test representation over them, and project surviving configurations onto a permutation-invariant support space. The resulting confidence correspondence can report cross-sheet inconclusiveness, group resolution with child ambiguity, or fine-support resolution. We characterize both its statistical cost and decision-theoretic benefit. Residual block orientation first affects the latent training density at cubic order, yielding information of order $s^6$, where $s$ is the within-block collision scale. The correspondence provides high-probability-over-training conditional test coverage, with resolution governed separately by parent detectability, test-time support separation, and learned-dictionary orientation. In the resolved fixed-shell regime, its projective Hausdorff diameter contracts at the minimax-optimal rate $s \wedge (\sqrt{N}s^2)^{-1}$, up to constants. A restricted-task theorem further determines when coefficient asymmetry allows test replication to supplement training information and when calibration uncertainty remains irreducible. The framework thus yields honest, resolution-adaptive support statements and guides the allocation of training versus test measurements.
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Machine Learning

Dimension-Calibrated Unexplained Mass: An Interpretable Drift Statistic for Contamination Monitoring in Data Streams

Drift detectors that work tend not to explain themselves, and drift detectors that explain themselves tend to fail in high dimension. We close that gap for Gaussian mixture models (GMMs): each fitted component is a named "regime," and the fraction of a stream window matching no regime – its unexplained mass – is a drift signal that is simultaneously its own explanation. We identify why this statistic collapses in high dimension and repair it. Under a correct component a normal point in d dimensions lies about sqrt(d) sigma from the mean, so once d exceeds 9 essentially every point exceeds a fixed 3-sigma radius: window-level ROC-AUC is exactly 0.50 on Satellite (d=36) and Optdigits (d=64). Calibrating the radius to sqrt(chi-squared_d(0.99)) removes the collapse – AUC 1.00 and 0.89 – while leaving low dimensions unchanged. Across seven public benchmarks, five seeds, and eight model-free detectors spanning the kernel, classifier, projection, density-difference, transport, likelihood and partition families, the repaired statistic is best or tied-best on five of seven datasets at 10% window contamination (its two losses are Pendigits, where the whole field beats it, and Optdigits), and as contamination becomes sparse the sample-level detectors fade toward chance while it degrades most gracefully: at 2% its mean AUC across the benchmarks is 0.86 against at most 0.73 for any model-free detector (1.00 vs. MMD's 0.72 on KDD-http) – while alone among them reporting which regime the data left and how far outside it the window lies. We delimit its scope honestly: unexplained mass detects and explains novel-regime drift but is blind by construction to in-support re-weighting of known regimes, where distribution-level tests are required and explain nothing; and the underlying density model's EVT-calibrated false-alarm rates degrade above d of about 36. All code and experiments are released.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD

Explainable Lightweight Compact Deep Models for Speech Emotion Recognition

Speech Emotion Recognition (SER) is an important component in a wide range of human-centered applications, including healthcare, customer service, and human-omputer interaction. In medical and decision-support settings, there is increasing interest in models that not only achieve accurate emotion recognition but also support transparent predictions and efficient deployment. However, many existing SER approaches rely on complex deep learning architectures that limit interpretability and increase computational cost. This paper presents an explainable and lightweight speech emotion recognition framework based on a compact convolutional neural network architecture. The proposed approach utilizes log-Mel spectrogram representations to capture spectro-temporal speech characteristics and employs attentive statistics pooling to emphasize emotionally salient temporal segments. To improve model transparency, gradient-based class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) is incorporated to visualize the time-frequency regions that influence the model's predictions. Experimental evaluation on the SAVEE emotional speech dataset demonstrates that the proposed framework achieves competitive recognition performance while maintaining a compact architecture with significantly fewer parameters than many existing SER models. The results indicate that efficient convolutional architectures combined with interpretable analysis can provide a practical balance between recognition accuracy, computational efficiency, and model transparency.
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Machine Learning

Value-Monotonicity Matters: A Concordance Loss for Deep Survival Prediction

Deep survival models are evaluated almost exclusively by the concordance index (C-index), yet they are commonly trained using likelihood objectives such as the Cox partial likelihood, discrete-time negative log-likelihood, and DeepHit likelihood. This mismatch is usually considered acceptable because the C-index can be recomputed on validation data during training. However, for end-to-end training of high-capacity encoders on small, heavily censored oncology cohorts, frequent C-index evaluation is computationally expensive, making the loss value itself an important signal for monitoring, early stopping, and model selection. We show that likelihood losses are unreliable for this purpose and propose a value-monotone concordance loss. We prove that every strictly proper survival likelihood admits directions where the loss decreases while the C-index remains unchanged, causing the loss value to decouple from ranking performance. We then study a sigmoid concordance loss (SCL), whose value approximates one minus the C-index up to a temperature term, ensuring that lower loss corresponds to higher C-index during optimization. The loss is architecture agnostic and reduces to a convex survival ranking support vector machine for linear models. Across eighteen datasets from four modalities using a unified five-fold cross-validation protocol, SCL achieves discrimination comparable to standard likelihood losses and is the best or within one standard deviation of the best C-index. Unlike likelihood losses, SCL maintains a strong correlation between loss value and C-index during training, with rank correlations of 0.96 to 0.99 compared with -0.03 to 0.53 for likelihood losses. Calibration measured by the integrated Brier score is comparable. SCL provides a value-monotone optimization objective whose value can serve as a reliable surrogate for the C-index during expensive end-to-end training.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Identity-Paired Progressive Depth Training: When Trainability Persists Beyond Expressibility

Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs) are a leading paradigm for near-term quantum computing, yet their training suffers from sensitivity to circuit depth, initialization, and landscape pathologies such as barren plateaus. We study progressive depth training (PDT) – a layerwise curriculum that trains a shallow circuit before appending new layers – and identify a fundamental obstacle: fixed entangling gates (CNOTs) in hardware-efficient ansätze cause initialization shock, an energy spike when new layers are added. We propose identity-paired progressive depth training (IP-PDT), which appends forward/inverse block pairs – each consisting of a standard rotation$+$CNOT block followed by its reverse – that compose to the identity at initialization. Because the adjacent CNOT rings cancel, the effective circuit retains only a single entangling layer surrounded by overparameterized local rotations. We prove a simple Reachable Set Saturation Theorem: under this construction the variational manifold expands exactly once (when post-entangler rotations are first introduced) and then saturates; all subsequent depth increases provide pure overparameterization of single-qubit unitaries. Despite this saturation, progressive addition of rotation parameters can continue to improve optimization outcomes – a phenomenon we term trainability beyond expressibility. We formalize IP-PDT as a continuation method on nested manifolds, prove monotone energy guarantees under an acceptance rule, and connect energy error to ground-state fidelity through spectral-gap inequalities. A detailed resource analysis shows that IP-PDT achieves lower total gate cost than both baselines by eliminating most CNOT gates.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Diagnosing Correctness Probes under Self-Judgement Confounding

Hidden-state readouts can predict whether language-model outputs are correct, but objective correctness (OC) usually agrees with the model's own self-judgement (SJ), leaving the decoded signal semantically ambiguous. We construct conflict cases in which OC and SJ predict opposite readout orderings. On high-confidence disagreements, conventional correctness-labelled contrasts often rank incorrect/self-endorsed responses above correct/self-rejected responses, following SJ rather than OC. We estimate factorial SJ- and OC-associated directions and evaluate their polarity across mathematical reasoning and factual recall. Across four instruction-tuned models up to 14B parameters, the SJ-associated direction transfers above chance in both cross-domain directions for every model, whereas the OC-associated direction has a below-chance point estimate for the expected OC ordering in every corresponding condition. This transfer asymmetry develops across middle-to-late layers, persists under answer-likelihood, sequence-length, and null-direction controls, and extends to MMLU and binary TruthfulQA without target-domain direction fitting. Across the studied models and diagnostic subsets, the most reliably transferable component preserves SJ-associated polarity. Transferability alone therefore does not establish objective-correctness semantics.
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Machine Learning

MultiLoReFT: Decoupling Shared and Modality-Specific Subspaces in Multimodal Learning via Low-Rank Representation Fine-Tuning

Real-world perception and decision making are inherently multimodal, integrating complementary signals across modalities. However, training multimodal models faces two main obstacles. First, collecting large-scale, well-aligned paired multimodal datasets is often impractical, making end-to-end multimodal training difficult. Second, existing multimodal representations frequently entangle information shared across modalities with modality-specific information, hindering interpretability and control. We introduce MultiLoReFT, an efficient and scalable low-rank representation fine-tuning framework for multimodal learning with pretrained unimodal models. MultiLoReFT extends low-rank adaptation to the multimodal setting and learns interpretable projection subspaces that decouple shared and modality-specific information. Across simulated and real-world benchmarks, it produces representations that support multimodal prediction while explicitly revealing how shared and modality-specific information is distributed across modalities.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SP

Demodulation of chaotic signals using convolutional neural network

Chaotic modulation is an effective communication technique that exploits deterministic chaos to produce pseudo-random signals. A widely adopted approach involves modulation of the chaotic bifurcation parameter. This paper introduces a deep learning-based demodulation method for keying of the bifurcation parameter. It describes the architecture of the convolutional neural network and evaluates performance metrics for signals generated using the chaotic logistic map. The study assesses the bit error rate for binary signals and reports a bit error rate of 0.0819 for a bifurcation parameter deviation of 1.34% under additive white Gaussian noise at a signal-to-noise ratio of -13 dB (corresponding to a normalized signal-to-noise ratio of +20 dB). The results demonstrate the capability to detect chaotic patterns even when the specific patterns were not included in the training dataset.
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2607.16788 · 18 Jul · 6 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables. This paper supersedes arXiv:2505.06243 , Published by International Archives of the Photogrammetry Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, available: https://isprs-archives.copernicus.org/articles/XLVIII-4-W19-2025/79/2026/

Machine Learning

On the Potential of Graph Neural Networks as Metamodels for Supply Chain Optimization: Dataset, Architectures, and Directions

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful, differentiable class of learning models for graph-structured systems. Their ability to generalize across topologies opens the prospect of a surrogate for combined structural and parametric optimization, which classical metamodels cannot offer. Supply chains are a natural target, yet the use of GNN surrogates for supply chain problems is largely unexplored. This paper lays the foundation, presents initial steps, and discusses key research directions. As a foundation, we formulate the problem and create a large public training dataset of programmatically generated supply chain graphs with input parameters and steady-state performance metrics obtained using our SupplyNetPy simulation library. As initial steps, we explore GNN architectures that work well as surrogates for node- and network-level predictions, and analyze their accuracy-compute trade-off against simulation. Most importantly, we outline the exciting directions this opens, namely gradient-based optimization over topology, fast design-space exploration, and sensitivity analysis.
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Machine Learning

Robust Losses from Univariate Base Functions for Noisy-Label Learning

Learning with noisy labels is a fundamental problem in training reliable deep neural networks. Robust loss functions provide a direct and effective way to mitigate the adverse effects of label noise. However, most existing robust losses are designed directly at the level of the final multiclass objective, which makes it difficult to systematically characterize and extend their robustness properties. In this paper, we propose a general framework that constructs robust multiclass losses from univariate base functions. By defining mapping operators from base functions to multiclass losses, the robustness of the induced losses can be characterized through simple properties of the base functions. We develop two complementary construction schemes, Target Separation and Binary Reduction, corresponding to inter-class independent and inter-class dependent formulations, respectively. For both schemes, we analyze their symmetry and asymmetry properties and derive corresponding sufficient conditions, which provide theoretical criteria for noise-robust loss design. The proposed framework also provides a new route to constructing symmetric losses, serving as a complement to normalization-based symmetric loss designs. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world noisy-label benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed losses achieve competitive or superior performance under various noise settings.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Dropout and Random Gradient Masking Are Asymptotically Equivalent in Large ResNets

Dropout and Random Gradient Masking (RaM) are two training techniques used to improve performance in deep learning. Both techniques inject randomness into the training dynamics, but in significantly different ways: dropout applies random masks to the activations in the forward pass, whereas RaM leaves the forward pass unchanged and instead masks the gradients. In particular, the noise induced by RaM in the parameter updates is unbiased, so standard explanations for the effectiveness of dropout, such as the penalization effect or the prevention of co-adaptation between neurons, do not apply to RaM. In this work, we show that the difference between the two methods disappears for ResNets in the large depth and width asymptotics: in the complete feature learning regime, they both converge to the same large-scale limiting dynamics. This asymptotic equivalence holds for several variants of dropout and RaM, including layerwise dropout as used in stochastic-depth ResNets, albeit at slower quantitative rates. In fact, we also show that several of these variants collapse to the same limit asymptotically.
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Machine Learning

The Anatomy of a Truth Direction: Knowledge-Dependent Dimensionality, a Relational Law, and a Shared Category Geometry in Small Language Models

Bürger et al.\ (2024) demonstrated that truth representations in large language models are universal across statement polarity but reside within a multidimensional subspace. The truth value of a statement is linearly readable from a residual stream of language model, but it is not clear how much of that representation fits on a single direction, which component builds it, or what it is made of. We conducted a study based on these questions, with one instrument: a training-free axis, the dominant direction of the singular value decomposition (SVD) of hidden-state differences over true/false minimal pairs, identified without labels up to one global sign. Extensive evaluation across 14 models from 6 diverse architectural families (including MoE), read and extract at cost $O(d)$ per token. We close with a pre-registered prediction on whether the arrangement extends to categories whose truth is computed rather than retrieved.
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2607.16741 · 18 Jul · Final version: extensively rewritten and restructured. Expanded with a replication campaign on a 14 model, 6 family and different architectures (including 2 MoEs), introducing a tiny library, for experiments. Code and data in 2 different repository at: https://github.com/Francesco-Marhel/

Machine Learning

BG4Sea: Biogeochemical Seasonal Forecastability via Progressive Information Scaling

Marine biogeochemical forecasting is increasingly important for managing marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle, yet global, seasonal forecast products lag far behind physical oceanography, held back by the complexity of the processes involved and by data scarcity. We introduce BG4Sea, which to our knowledge is the first global, data-driven system to produce multivariate seasonal forecasts of the marine biogeochemical state. BG4Sea is a modular architecture with a column autoencoder that compresses the vertical column into a low-dimensional latent space, a latent forecaster propagates this representation forward in time, a surface-forcing conditioner that injects physical boundary information via Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM), and a horizontal-coupling module that incorporates neighboring-column context through cross-attention. The model is trained and evaluated on the global ocean reanalysis BIORYS4 (NEMO/PISCES), and produces six-month forecasts at 1/4 degree, monthly resolution for dissolved chemistry, biology, and carbon-pool variables, outperforming persistence and climatology across most variables and lead times. We position BG4Sea as an interpretable baseline for future, more expressive approaches, and discuss predictability attribution to each component, alongside the model's structural limitations.
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All authors Gabriela Martinez Balbontin, Anastase Charantonis, Dominique Bereziat, Stefano Ciavatta

Machine Learning

Graph-Embedded Intuitionistic Fuzzy Broad Learning System: A Multi-view Framework

The Broad Learning System (BLS) has been widely used for data classification and is based on a layer-by-layer feed-forward structure. However, it gives the same importance to all data points, which reduces its effectiveness on real-world datasets with noise and outliers. In addition, it does not consider the geometric structure of the data and has limitations in handling data from multiple sources. To address these challenges, we propose a Multi-View Graph-Embedded Intuitionistic Fuzzy Broad Learning System (MVGIFBLS) that integrates multi-view learning, graph embedding, and intuitionistic fuzzy theory into the BLS framework. This design enables the model to combine information from multiple sources and learn more discriminative representations. Graph embedding captures the geometric relationships among samples and improves class separation through intrinsic and penalty subspaces based on local Fisher discriminant analysis. Intuitionistic fuzzy theory enhances robustness to noise, while kernel-based neighborhood analysis captures local data structures. We evaluate the proposed framework on several UCI, KEEL, and AwA benchmark datasets using comparative evaluation, Gaussian feature noise analysis, ablation studies, and statistical analysis. The results demonstrate that each component contributes positively to the overall framework and that the proposed MVGIFBLS consistently achieves higher Area Under the Curve (AUC) scores and maintains robust performance under Gaussian feature noise.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Semi-Supervised Conditional Generative Learning through Stochastic Interpolation and Sufficient Representations

Conditional generative modeling remains a challenging problem in semi-supervised settings where labeled data is scarce but unlabeled samples are abundant. To effectively leverage structural information embedded within the unlabeled dataset and compensate for sparse conditioning signals, we propose a semi-supervised framework combining conditional stochastic interpolation with low-dimensional latent representations. RepG decomposes generation into two stages: label-dependent latent sampling and high-dimensional reconstruction. This isolates the supervised learning of conditional dependencies to a low-dimensional space, requiring few labels while utilizing the abundant unlabeled data purely for reconstruction. Theoretically, we establish an error decomposition showing that the Kullback-Leibler divergence of RepG comprises stage-wise estimation errors and a structural bias quantified by conditional mutual information. For deep neural network estimators, we derive non-asymptotic convergence rates proving that RepG significantly improves sample complexity. By confining the supervised estimation burden to the low intrinsic dimension of the latent representation, RepG achieves a strictly faster convergence rate. Complemented by a minimax lower bound, our theoretical results demonstrate that this method effectively mitigates the curse of dimensionality inherent in direct ambient-space generative modeling.
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Machine Learning

Half the Experts, All the Code: One-Shot Domain Pruning of Mixture-of-Experts LLMs for Coding

The strongest open-weight coding models are mixture-of-experts (MoE) networks: most of their size comes from large pools of "expert" subnetworks, of which only a few act on any token. That pool is why these models do not fit on the machines most developers own, yet for a user who only wants coding help, most experts encode abilities that will never be invoked. We ask how many experts can be removed, and which, by pruning two recent open-weight MoE models from different families (Qwen3.6-35B-A3B and Gemma-4-26B-A4B) under five selection strategies, judged the way a user would: by whether the model still writes correct code. Half the experts can be removed from either model with no statistically detectable loss on the primary code benchmark, and the damage lands almost entirely on abilities outside coding, the intended trade. But the winning strategy flips between the two models, so a recipe validated on one family cannot be assumed to work on another. We further show that perplexity, the metric much of the pruning literature leans on, can rate a broken model above an intact one; that a lightweight fine-tune recovers about half of what aggressive pruning loses; and that against quantizing the full model to the same memory, pruning wins only where quantization would have to drop below 3 bits per weight. Five attempts to overturn that crossover, with failure criteria fixed in advance (better calibration, guarded selection, causal expert importance, failure attribution, and an agentic evaluation letting each model repair its failures from execution feedback), all leave it standing; the last shows single-shot benchmarks overstate compression penalties broadly, as one repair turn erases the 2-bit quantization penalty entirely. Expert pruning works, but it demands per-model validation on the task the model will actually serve.
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Machine Learning

Effects of width-dependent model hyperparameters and $\ell_2$-regularization on the loss landscape of two-layer ReLU networks

Understanding deep neural networks remains a central challenge in machine learning. In particular, the theoretical properties of even two-layer ReLU networks, especially in the presence of weight decay, remain poorly understood. To this end, we derive a sufficient condition on the hyperparameter settings under which the global minima collapse to the zero solution. Interestingly, our experiments reveal that using AdamW as an optimizer prevents the collapse of the learned parameters, whereas using SGD does not, which may help explain the success of AdamW in deep learning training. In addition, when restricting the input dimension to one, we derive an analytical solution for the globally optimal parameter sets of two-layer ReLU networks and show that $\ell_2$-regularization has a width-invariant effect on connectivity, but its dimensionality-reducing effect becomes stronger as the network width increases. These results provide insight into how width-dependent hyperparameters influence the geometry of regularized loss landscapes.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

A Causal Markov Condition for Value

This paper proposes a causal independence principle for value – the value Causal Markov Condition (v-CMC) – and develops the conceptual and mathematical foundations of a "causal value theory" linking causality and utility. After motivating a local formulation of the v-CMC, we introduce a probability-value duality that translates standard causal-inference results into the value setting. In particular, we formulate local, global, and decomposition versions of the v-CMC and prove their equivalence. We also define v-separation and show that it is sound and complete for conditional value independence. Furthermore, we derive a Bellman-type recursion as a special case of the v-CMC, thereby generalizing standard Bellman recursion from linear chains to causal DAGs. Finally, we show how the v-CMC supports modular transfer and updating of utility information across causal contexts and develop algorithms for causally structured utility elicitation and canonical influence-diagram construction.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Semi-Supervised Conditional Diffusion via Label Augmentation

Conditional diffusion models have become a powerful and flexible framework for learning complex conditional distributions from labeled data. In practice, however, acquiring high-quality labels is costly and time-consuming, leaving large volumes of unlabeled data unused. To address this, we introduce label-augmented conditional diffusion (LACD), a simple and effective approach that incorporates unlabeled examples by assigning them a designated trivial label and performing joint denoising score matching over the augmented dataset. We provide sufficient conditions guaranteeing population-level identifiability of the target conditional distribution under this scheme. Moreover, we establish rigorous statistical guarantees: when sufficiently many unlabeled samples are available, the sampling distribution produced by LACD converges strictly faster than the purely supervised estimator in total variation distance, and at least as fast in Wasserstein-1 distance. Extensive experiments on synthetic, image, and tabular benchmarks corroborate our theory and show substantial gains in sample efficiency and generative performance compared with the purely supervised estimator.
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All authors Jin Su, Yuan Gao, Yong Zhou, Jian Huang