Papers

Backdoor unlearning aims to remove a malicious trigger behavior from a deployed model while preserving clean utility. We study the update-free inference-time setting, where model parameters remain frozen. First, we audit a common projection assumption under oracle paired clean and triggered features. Projection succeeds mainly on BadNets and leaves WaNet, Blended, and SIG at 0.683, 0.888, and 0.941 ASR on CIFAR-10 ResNet-18. This failure is not explained by spectral compactness, spatial locality, or subspace misalignment. It is predicted by a logit-triplet gap involving the target margin, target-logit drop, and non-target logit rise. We then introduce InstantForget, a clean-calibrated gated reset that flags anomalous features with a Mahalanobis score and moves only flagged features toward a neutral non-target representation. With one fixed operating point selected on held-out triggered validation, InstantForget reduces average ASR to 0.071 across four non-adaptive CIFAR-10 triggers without triggered samples or parameter updates at deployment. It also reaches 0.981 detection AUROC and transfers to six of eight tested backbones. Reported failures under WaNet, ModelNet10 point blend, two backbone geometries, and adaptive feature-compactness attacks define the method's scope.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models reduce per-token computation through sparse expert activation, yet deployment still requires storing the full expert pool, making one-shot expert pruning a practical approach for reducing memory usage. Although effective, existing criteria are largely heuristic, and no single criterion is universally optimal. Thus, establishing a principle for selecting pruning criteria suited to different deployment objectives remains an important yet largely underexplored problem in one-shot expert pruning. To this end, we introduce a systematic formulation for one-shot MoE expert pruning organized around three factors: routing frequency, gate weighting, and activation strength. The formulation yields a criteria selection principle: task-agnostic pruning should favor routed-token-averaged, gate-free activation-based criteria, whereas task-specific pruning can benefit from retaining routing-frequency and gate-weight information. Beyond this principle, the formulation also provides a systematic view of existing heuristic criteria and gives rise to two new task-agnostic criteria, Mean Activation Norm (MAN) and Mean Squared Activation Norm (MSAN). Across four representative MoE models and 16 diverse benchmarks, MAN and MSAN are consistently strong in the task-agnostic setting, obtain the top-two average ranks, and improve average performance by 4.0 points on average and up to 8.8 points over the strongest baseline.

Modern deep learning optimization features heterogeneous parameter structures, noisy gradients, and highly nonconvex landscapes, posing significant challenges for both algorithm design and theoretical analysis. Motivated by the limitations of SGD and the success of adaptive optimizers, we propose Schattor, a family of adaptive first-order methods based on Schatten norms. Schattor unifies SGD and the recently proposed matrix-variate adaptive optimizer Muon within a single Schatten-norm-based framework. We establish dimension-free stationarity guarantees for methods in the Schattor family for stochastic matrix optimization problems via a novel matrix martingale moment bound. We also develop multi-block extensions that adaptively balance block-wise optimization progress and prove dimension-free stationarity guarantees in this more general setting.

Transformers have shown remarkable success in sequence modeling, yet their direct application to financial time series remains challenging due to noisy signals, short-memory dynamics, and distributional shifts. This paper proposes a modified Transformer architecture for one-step stock index forecasting, combined with advanced learning-rate scheduling and a novel Shifted Data Augmentation (SDA) technique. We evaluate the proposed framework on two benchmark stock index datasets, VN30 and S&P 500. Experimental results demonstrate that cosine annealing with warmup consistently improves forecasting accuracy over the generalized inverse-power scheduler. Furthermore, SDA substantially reduces forecasting errors and run-to-run variability while improving robustness to hyperparameter selection. The combination of cosine annealing scheduling and SDA achieved the best performance on both datasets, indicating that data augmentation can play a more important role than increasing model complexity in Transformer-based financial forecasting. These findings provide a practical and computationally efficient approach for robust stock index forecasting in noisy financial environments.

Federated class-incremental learning (FCIL) becomes substantially harder when clients observe different label subsets, progress through tasks at different stages, and provide uneven supervision for the same semantic concepts. Existing FCIL methods often preserve old knowledge through input-space synthesis, but they can be fragile under heterogeneous task streams and difficult to transfer across modalities. To alleviate such issues, we propose PRO, a framework that replaces synthetic input replay with projected rehearsal orchestration. To remove external pretraining, we evaluate all methods under the same warmup. After this, PRO maintains compact class-level projected memories on the server and allows clients perform balanced pseudo multi-task training over current examples and old projected memories. To handle stronger representation drift, we further introduce PRO-MAX, which augments PRO with neighborhood-weighted memory alignment while preserving the same server-light principle that the server only aggregates model updates and memory statistics. Across image, text, and graph benchmarks, PRO and PRO-MAX improve retention and final utility under heterogeneous streams while remaining competitive in homogeneous FCIL. Even when baselines are given expanded replay budgets, they degrade under supervision imbalance and stage misalignment, indicating that replay quantity alone does not resolve replay-quality failures. Additional weak-task diagnostics further show that larger replay mismatch is associated with larger downstream degradation, while our method keeps projected memories better aligned with the evolving representation.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in understanding complex multimodal content. However, their performance in sentiment analysis exhibits acute sensitivity to prompt design, rendering static, uniformly applied prompts inherently suboptimal for capturing the nuanced multimodal cues that vary across inputs. To address this limitation, we propose a Multimodal Adaptive Few-Shot Prompting (MAF) framework, which dynamically retrieves and integrates query-relevant demonstrations to elicit the sentiment reasoning capabilities of MLLMs in a context-sensitive manner. MAF constructs a demonstration retrieval module that holistically encodes facial expressions, scene context, and textual semantics, with a lip movement amplitude detection mechanism introduced for accurate speaker identification in multi-person scenarios. Departing from conventional fixed-weight fusion, a lightweight coefficient generation network is trained to output query-conditioned fusion weights in real time, enabling weighted aggregation of multimodal similarity scores to retrieve the top-K most informative demonstrations. Prediction stability is further enhanced through majority voting over multiple candidate outputs generated by the MLLM. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets demonstrate that MAF achieves substantial and consistent performance improvements over the corresponding backbone variants and remains competitive with strong multimodal sentiment-analysis baselines.

Data from simulations and experiments are rarely noise-free and often exhibit heterogeneous levels of fidelity. Measurement uncertainty may vary across repeated observations, sensing devices, or even within a single experiment. This work addresses the problem of discovering nonlinear dynamical systems from such inhomogeneous data. We extend the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (SINDy) framework to account for variable noise levels by combining Ensemble SINDy and Weak SINDy within a weighted regression formulation derived from generalized least squares. A statistical justification for the weighting strategy is also provided. The methodology is validated on several benchmark systems, including ordinary and partial differential equations. In addition, we show the benefit of multi-fidelity integration for forecasting the dynamics of a double pendulum system. The results confirm that the proposed approach mitigates the adverse effects of heteroscedastic noise and that repeated, low-cost, low-quality measurements can improve model recovery, in some cases matching or outperforming reconstructions obtained using only high-fidelity data.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) achieve strong problem-solving through long chain-of-thought, but their deployment is constrained by the high cost of full-precision inference and growing KV cache footprints. Microscaled FP4 formats enable efficient FP4 deployment; however, fully quantizing weights, activations, and KV caches (W4A4KV4) causes severe reasoning degradation that existing PTQ and QAT fail to recover. We identify that FP4 failures concentrate on low-entropy tokens–precise symbolic commitments such as digits and operators–where quantization noise inflates sampling errors that cascade through reasoning traces. Based on this insight, we propose ReQAT, a reasoning-centric FP4 training framework with three components: (i) Trace-Aligned QAT (TAQ), which revisits identical reasoning traces to focus updates on critical low-entropy decisions; (ii) Selective Entropy Minimization (SEM), which reinforces confidence at low-entropy positions; and (iii) Q-FIT, a quantization-friendly initialization that jointly calibrates RoPE-consistent KV cache transformations to stabilize QAT. Under the same training budget, ReQAT not only recovers but surpasses BF16 fine-tuning accuracy, while delivering up to 3.9x throughput speedup on NVIDIA DGX Spark and 3.1x on B200.

Stochastic trace estimation is a standard tool for approximating the trace of a large-scale matrix available only through matrix-vector products. However, in tensor-structured settings, unstructured Gaussian or Rademacher test vectors may be prohibitively expensive to store and compute with, while cheaper rank-one tensor-product vectors can require sample complexities that grow exponentially with the tensor order. This work studies Gaussian random tensor train vectors as a structured alternative for stochastic trace estimation. We show that, with a suitable choice of the tensor train rank, random tensor train vectors recover dimension-independent guarantees for the Girard–Hutchinson estimator. In particular, a median-of-means variant with tensor train rank $r \geq d-1$ achieves the same dependence on the accuracy $\varepsilon$ and failure probability $\delta$ as the classical estimator based on unstructured Gaussian vectors. We further prove an oblivious subspace injection result for sketches formed from independent Gaussian random tensor train vectors: tensor train rank $r\geq d-1$ and $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-2}(k+\log(1/\delta)))$ samples suffice for a $k$-dimensional target subspace. Finally, we investigate the use of such sketches within the Nyström++ framework. We show that the resulting estimator can achieve the desired $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-1})$ sample complexity under an additional spectral-tail condition. These results provide clarififcation on both the potential and the limitations of random tensor train vectors in stochastic trace estimation.

A feasibility and dynamics study of the Reservoir Attention Network (RAN), an architecture that injects a fixed, randomly-initialized reservoir into the mid-layer attention of a pretrained transformer to carry state across forward passes. Experiments span GPT-2 (124M, 355M) to Qwen2.5 (0.5B, 1.5B) on a single consumer GPU. The tasks are minimal probes chosen to isolate individual mechanisms; the broader always-alive agent vision is treated throughout as compute-limited future work, not a claim of this paper. The reservoir is left untrained (fixed random) by design: this isolates whether untrained recurrent dynamics alone suffice to carry usable cross-pass state, leaving trained recurrence as a complementary, more expensive direction.

Modern deep neural networks rely on Euclidean scalar activations (e.g., ReLU) and global normalization techniques (e.g., LayerNorm) to prevent gradient instability in deep architectures. However, these mechanisms inherently cause dead neurons, discard critical directional information, and destroy the orthogonality of feature representations. Inspired by the frequency-modulation transmission of biological axons, we propose the Z-Plane Neural Network, which maps hidden states into 2D phasor bundles on a hypersphere. We introduce a novel geometric activation function, Radial Bounding($\mathbf{x} / \max(1, \|\mathbf{x}\|_2)$), which limits the energy magnitude while preserving the phase (direction). We demonstrate mathematically that this isotropic activation maintains 1-Lipschitz continuity and prevents gradient vanishing by preserving tangential gradients. Empirically, a 100-layer Z-Plane Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-entirely devoid of ReLU and LayerNorm-successfully converges on the MNIST dataset with 98.34% accuracy and absolute numerical stability, proving that bounded geometric activation alone is sufficient for stable deep learning.

This paper studies the information gap between mixture detection and label recovery in binomial logistic mixtures. Standard likelihood-based criteria such as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can detect the presence of two components, but this does not guarantee that the corresponding labels are recoverable. We show that this gap is intrinsic to binomial logistic mixtures with a fixed number of trials: observed-data evidence for mixture structure and per-observation information for label recovery have different local orders in the component separation, and only the former accumulates with the sample size. As a result, there exists a detectable-but-unrecoverable regime in which BIC selects two components while the posterior labels remain essentially uninformative. To address this issue, we propose two feasibility-aware inference procedures: a recoverability-aware BIC with a posterior-entropy penalty and an entropy-regularized estimator that mitigates the tendency of the maximum likelihood estimator to produce overly separated components and overly concentrated posterior responsibilities. Numerical experiments confirm the predicted gap and demonstrate that the proposed methods avoid misleading component selections and improve the calibration of posterior label probabilities.

4-bit quantization significantly reduces the memory footprint and accelerates the inference of large language models (LLMs). However, its limited bit-width representation struggles to faithfully capture both dense common values (inliers) and rare large-magnitude values (outliers), causing substantial accuracy degradation. Existing mixed-precision methods mitigate this by retaining outliers in high precision, but at the cost of breaking the uniformity of low-bit execution, introducing precision conversion and extra data movement that undermine practical speedup. We propose MosaicQuant, a unified 4-bit LLM quantization paradigm built on a novel principle of inlier–outlier disaggregation. Rather than elevating outlier precision, MosaicQuant quantizes the full weight matrix into a dense 4-bit base component, where inliers are captured faithfully while outlier are inevitably quantized. A sparse 4-bit residual component is then introduced to compensate for these quantization errors, selectively targeting the most error-critical weight blocks where output distortion is shown to be concentrated. However, a unified representation alone is insufficient, as naïvely executing the sparse residual as a separate kernel still breaks the unified low-bit inference pipeline. To bridge this gap, we introduce ZipperEngine, which fuses sparse block computation into the dense 4-bit GEMM kernel via an overlapped pipeline, unifying not only the representation but also the execution into a single coherent low-bit inference pipeline. Extensive experiments on LLaMA3 and Qwen3 demonstrate that MosaicQuant preserves near-FP16 accuracy while achieving up to $1.24\times$ speedup over the W16A16 baseline.

Accurate traffic flow prediction remains challenging in cross-city, data-scarce scenarios where limited historical data hinders model generalisation. The chaotic nature of traffic dynamics, complex spatio-temporal dependencies, and heterogeneous urban networks complicate few-shot learning across cities. Existing deep learning approaches either treat traffic as purely deterministic or lack mechanisms to model wave-like interference patterns essential for cross-regime traffic dynamics. To address these limitations, this paper proposes CIWI-CKT, a novel Chaos-Informed Wave Interference Feature Fusion framework with Cross-City Knowledge Transfer. Our framework introduces three core innovations: chaos-informed wave generation that extracts measurable chaos invariants and models traffic as adaptive wave components; meta-interference processing that captures wave interactions between support and query regimes while producing a predictability score for confidence estimation; and chaos-aware meta-learning that enables efficient cross-city knowledge transfer while preserving chaotic characteristics. We establish theoretical guarantees including chaos-to-wave stability, wave-induced dimension reduction, and meta-learning generalisation bounds. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that CIWI-CKT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art spatio-temporal graph learning, transfer learning, prompt-based, and few-shot methods, improving prediction accuracy while substantially reducing required training data.

Audit risk assessment increasingly benefits from combining heterogeneous evidence sources, yet existing approaches typically produce point predictions without quantifying how well different evidence streams agree. We propose UMAR (Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Agent Risk Assessment), a framework that employs three specialized agents: an MD&A Text Agent, a Financial Ratio Agent, and a CAM Agent, each producing independent risk scores with calibrated uncertainty estimates. An Uncertainty Aggregator based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory fuses these scores while explicitly measuring inter-agent conflict. We evaluate UMAR on a U.S. dataset of 3,200 firm-year observations from SEC 10-K filings (2019-2023), with financial restatement as the target label. Experimental results show that UMAR achieves an AUROC of 0.782 and a PR-AUC of 0.341, outperforming logistic regression, XGBoost, FinBERT, and single-agent and dual-agent LLM baselines. UMAR attains the lowest expected calibration error (ECE = 0.052) among all methods and identifies evidence-conflict patterns that correlate with actual restatement risk, offering auditors potentially actionable and interpretable risk signals.

A digital twin (DT) of a patient-specific heart offers significant potential in personalized medicine. However, its rapid and dynamic adaptation to an individual's live data and its predictive capability after adaptation remains central challenges. We examine this challenge from its two building blocks: DT formulation where mechanistic and data-driven models show competing merits and limitations, and DT optimization strategies that are largely driven by a reconstruction objective leading to un-identifiable models. We address both bottlenecks via HAPI – an AI framework for building hybrid, adaptive, and predictive DTs with three key enablers. First, HAPI constructs a physics-integrated gray-box model in which an interpretable mechanistic backbone is augmented by a neural component that models its residual to the observed data. Second, rather than attempting to pre-encode all possible variations in a static hybrid model, HAPI enables rapid on-the-fly adaptation of the hybrid model to few-shot live data, achieved by feedforward meta-learners realizing amortized inference of both mechanistic and neural parameters of the hybrid model trained with predictive objectives. Finally, we show that this adaptivity corresponds to the construction of a conditional generative model (i.e., the hybrid DT) that endows it with theoretical identifiability and thus strong performance in predictive scenarios. We demonstrate the proof-of-concept of HAPI in cardiac electrophysiology using a hybrid monodomain model with mechanistic reaction kinetics and neural graph diffusion. Across synthetic and real-data studies, we show that HAPI's mechanistic-neural hybridization and predictive adaptation are critical for obtaining identifiable DTs with strong predictive and out-of-distribution capabilities.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise for reasoning over Text-Attributed Graphs (TAGs). However, applying LLMs to graphs requires linearizing their structure into sequences, introducing distortion rooted in the graph bandwidth problem. While this distortion has been shown to degrade performance, it is often attributed to prompt design or model scale, leaving the underlying mechanism unclear. In this work, we show how rotary positional embeddings turn graph linearization into bandwidth-dependent attention decay, suppressing attention between graph-adjacent nodes that are forced far apart in the serialized sequence. This shifts the focus of LLM-based graph reasoning from prompt engineering and scaling toward correcting attention misalignment. Motivated by this analysis, we propose Graph-aligned Language Attention (GaLA), a lightweight, inference-time modification for LLMs. GaLA biases attention toward graph-adjacent nodes while preserving the LLM's sequential inductive biases. Across TAG benchmarks, GaLA improves performance with negligible overhead, demonstrating that distortion is a correctable bottleneck in LLM-based graph reasoning.

The continuous scaling of large language models (LLMs) incurs prohibitive computational costs, making Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) a scalable alternative for efficient fine-tuning via sparse activation. While federated learning (FL) emerges as the paradigm for privacy-preserving collaborative optimization, integrating MoE into FL under data heterogeneity may trigger conflicting expert optimizations. Client-specific data distributions force same-indexed experts to optimize under inconsistent or even conflicting feature-label correlations. This mismatch induces destructive interference during aggregation, thus destabilizing the optimization trajectory and degrading model performance. To address this issue, we propose FC-MoE, a federated conflict-aware framework for MoE fine-tuning. It employs an importance aware weighting scheme to prioritize reliable local updates and utilizes gradient consensus projection to suppress conflicting updates, ensuring a stable global optimization path. Moreover, a local knowledge retention mechanism further preserves specialized client expertise by re-anchoring domain-specific residuals. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FC-MoE accelerates convergence and enhances both global and local model performance in non-IID federated environments.

Pairwise comparison is the gold standard for subjective ranking tasks; however, exhaustive annotation requires a massive number of human comparisons ($O(n^2)$). While sorting-based methods have reduced this burden to $O(n\log n)$, they still require expensive human judgment for every single comparison. To further improve annotation efficiency, we propose leveraging a Vision-Language Model (VLM) not as an annotator replacement, but as a question prioritizer to identify which comparisons genuinely require human judgment. The proposed Surprise-Guided MergeSort (SGS) framework achieves this through three integrated components: (1) a bottom-up MergeSort scheduler that structures comparisons and exploits transitivity, (2) a composite Surprise Scorer – combining position-bias-cancelled VLM confidence, Elo gap, and vote entropy – to quantify comparison ambiguity, and (3) an adaptive budget allocator that routes high-surprise pairs to humans while automating low-surprise pairs via transitivity inference. Validation was conducted on six diverse benchmarks spanning text similarity (STS-B, BIOSSES, SICKR-STS) and image quality assessment (KonIQ-10k, TID2013, LIVE Challenge). SGS effectively identified and skipped up to 535 non-informative comparisons per session. Consequently, it achieved Kendall's $\tau{\times}100$ improvements of $+6$ to $+12$ over Active Elo under the same total budget. These results demonstrate that combining VLM-guided surprise metrics with algorithmic sorting provides a generally consistent accuracy-efficiency trade-off across diverse domains.

Per-token counterfactual credit estimation asks which token in a language-model rollout caused the final answer to be right or wrong: cut the transcript at a pivot, substitute an alternative token, replay continuations, and compare outcomes. Published methods re-feed the transcript prefix as a fresh prompt, assuming this reproduces the state the model passed through during generation. We measure what that assumption costs on a stock inference engine, with a three-pass design: continuations resumed from the verified decode-time KV state, an identical second exact pass (a replica noise floor), and a re-feed pass. Across six configurations and three models (including a GRPO-trained checkpoint), at low-margin decision tokens, re-feeding changes the credit estimate at rates 14-28 percentage points above the replica floor (7-21pp under a treatment-independent conditioning; problem-clustered t = 2.9-6.4). Most changes are zero-boundary crossings of the quantized estimator rather than polarity reversals, and the perturbation is consistent with mean-zero, so averaged quantities are largely safe; but selection is not: a critical-token set chosen by thresholding $|\hat{A}_t|$ under re-feed overlaps the exact-resume selection at Jaccard 0.34-0.90, versus a 0.63-0.96 replica ceiling. A causal confirmation closes the loop: under vLLM's batch-invariant kernels all three passes are identical on every measured channel, with both disagreement rates exactly zero. Replica passes themselves disagree on 9-23% of eligible estimates: single-sample credit measurements at decision tokens are unreliable under any replay. Settings were fixed in advance; exact-pass cache hits in the second campaign are instrumented (100% hit rate, 3,434 pivots); total compute was under 10 USD. We recommend that counterfactual credit studies resume decoder state or use batch-invariant kernels, and report a replica floor.

Diffusion Transformers with Mixture-of-Experts (DiT-MoE) improve model capacity under sparse activation, but diffusion inference is still bottlenecked by redundant computation across timesteps. Existing caching methods mainly operate at the token level, which becomes suboptimal in DiT-MoE because each token update is internally decomposed into multiple routed expert branches. Our analysis shows that cross-timestep redundancy in DiT-MoE is better characterized at the expert-branch level than at the whole-token level. Based on this observation, we propose MoECa, a fine-grained caching framework that performs branch-level feature reuse across timesteps. MoECa further introduces expert-aware adaptive control and synchronized cache updates across MoE and attention paths to maintain stable intermediate states. Experiments on multiple DiT-MoE models show a favorable speed–quality trade-off, with up to 2.93$\times$ speedups while preserving generation quality.

Passing an exact-clone null gate does not entail passing a matched target-selection utility gate. We call a non-tie preference between exact duplicates dark current. On 102 prespecified fresh RewardBench 2 rows, all four configuration–criterion cells report 0/102 clone preferences. Both neutral utility arms pass, but strict utility lower bounds of .539 and .745 miss the .75 working threshold. Conversely, re-evaluation of the same rows on two additional configurations yields a neutral gpt-oss utility pass with 2/102 clone preferences, leaving low-null behavior uncertified. A separately frozen 485-row extension passes both aggregate working gates under both criteria on one local raw-text configuration, yet strict Precise Instruction Following (Precise IF) alignment is 58/154 (.377). Thus matched null and utility results can diverge, and aggregate passage can coexist with weak subset alignment. Interpretation is conditional on the declared configurations, fixed source mixtures, source-label targets, and study-specific working models. The bounds are marginal, the subset rate is descriptive, and non-certification does not prove a defect.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors – where deployed learned estimators operate – an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical – an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality – rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

We present SLS^2, a framework for safe feedback motion planning from pixels using robust model predictive control (MPC) in learned latent world models. Our approach trains an action-conditioned joint-embedding world model with compact Markovian latent states, enabling efficient gradient-based trajectory optimization through learned latent dynamics. To enforce safety for the true system despite imperfect latent predictions, we inform a GPU-accelerated system level synthesis (SLS) robust MPC scheme with conformal prediction to obtain calibrated latent error bounds and robust latent-space constraint sets. We further learn and conformalize a latent constraint checker, allowing the SLS planner to impose probabilistic safety constraints during closed-loop execution. We evaluate our method on vision-based control tasks, where it improves both goal-reaching performance and safety over latent world-model and safe-planning baselines.

For tool-augmented language models, comparing natural-language reasoning with code-execution pipelines is difficult because the comparison changes both the intermediate representation and the execution mechanism. We separate these factors with an intermediate intervention: the model expresses its reasoning as executable code, and the language model simulates that code in context to produce an answer. On a 40-task verifiable algorithmic benchmark, deterministic code execution outperforms natural-language reasoning by +31.6pp. We observe that the intermediate intervention is not meaningfully different from natural-language reasoning (+0.15pp). These results suggest that, in our evaluated setting, changing the intermediate representation alone does not explain the tool-use advantage, providing evidence for the performance gains requiring reliable external execution. We formalize this intuition with a simple statistical decision-theoretic model that characterizes when execution dominates end-to-end risk in our disentangled trace-generation/execution regime. We validate our theory using a reconstruction intervention that leverages a proxy language model to infer natural-language reasoning traces from code representations, recovering performance comparable to the original natural-language reasoning pipeline. All experiments are at https://github.com/TerryTong-Git/ToolProj.

We study the graph alignment problem for correlated Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE) matrices, where the goal is to recover a hidden vertex permutation given two correlated symmetric Gaussian matrices $(A, B)$ with correlation $1/\sqrt{1+\sigma^2}$. While the maximum likelihood estimator is information-theoretically optimal, its computation, which reduces to a quadratic assignment problem, is intractable. Motivated by this, we analyze convex relaxations based on minimizing $\|AX - XB\|_F$ over the set of doubly stochastic matrices and the unit hypercube. We show that when the correlation parameter satisfies $\sigma = o(n^{-1/2}/\log^4 n)$, the solution of either relaxation $(X^\star)$ concentrates around the ground-truth permutation matrix $(\Pi^\star)$, i.e., $\|X^\star-\Pi^\star\|_F^2 = o(n)$, implying recovery of all but a vanishing fraction of vertices after simple post-processing. Combined with existing lower bounds, our results precisely characterize that $\|X^\star-\Pi^\star\|_F^2$ transitions from $o(n)$ for $\sigma = \tilde{o}(n^{-1/2})$ to $\Omega(n)$ for $\sigma = \tilde{\Omega}(n^{-1/2})$. In doing so, our analysis significantly tightens prior results and extends them beyond doubly stochastic relaxations.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards assigns a single scalar to each rollout, leaving token-level credit assignment underspecified in long reasoning traces. On-policy self-distillation addresses this by letting the same model act as a teacher conditioned on privileged information, producing a dense per-token signal. But the common choice of a ground-truth answer is only an endpoint cue: on terse-answer tasks, the teacher falls silent at the intermediate positions where path-level guidance matters most. We propose Hindsight Self-Distillation (HSD), which conditions the teacher on a successful peer rollout drawn from the current training group. Such a peer is an exact sample from the success-conditioned policy, requiring no additional sampled rollouts. By providing a full successful continuation rather than only the final answer, the resulting credit signal concentrates at the divergence position between a failed rollout and a successful peer. Across Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-32B on math and code benchmarks, HSD obtains the best result against GRPO variants and on-policy distillation baselines, with the largest gains on terse-answer tasks such as AIME.

Test-time training (TTT) adapts a pretrained model to each prompt via parameter updates, improving accuracy under pretraining-to-test distribution shifts. Yet, its performance often suffers from instability and sensitivity to hyperparameters such as update steps and subspace. We explain this behavior through a decision-theoretic lens, treating TTT as implicit Bayesian inference in the kernel regime. Under a Gaussian process benchmark, we show that TTT reduces prediction error when updates are spectrally matched to the prompt's signal-to-noise ratio and aligned with query-relevant eigen-directions. This perspective underpins the following results: (1) we show when fixed update steps and subspaces fail under distribution shifts, motivating adaptive strategies; (2) we prove that selecting update steps via prompt evidence admits a PAC-Bayes guarantee against overfitting; and (3) we characterize the Bayes-optimal update subspace under a linear-Gaussian correction model, yielding a scoring rule for selecting Transformer blocks and heads. Our theory helps explain the empirical instability of TTT, taking a step toward principled guidance for when, how far, and which directions to adapt.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used in museums to as role playing chatbots which let visitors talk to simulated versions of people and artefacts from the past. While such installations can be playful and engaging, they are also problematic because LLMs cannot be trusted to speak truthfully. I identify a fundamental dilemma for the use of LLMs in museum chatbots: LLMs cannot be trusted to tell the truth, and efforts to make them more reliable may ruin that which is attractive about the bots in the first place - their ability to engage in life-like conversation. In response, I propose designing for critical play with LLM-based bots: Designing for playful interactions with bots that are unreliable but still able to represent the past in an adequate and engaging manner - as fictional characters representing historical narratives, styles of discourse, diverse perspectives, humor and satire.

The transition toward software-defined vehicles concentrates an increasing share of vehicle functionality into distributed software services, where failures propagate through service dependencies and the surface symptom is often several causal hops away from the underlying defect. Existing approaches to causal root-cause analysis in such systems address this only partially: they typically reason over a single observability modality and operate in an offline, operator-driven mode that does not match the demands of continuous vehicle operation. This paper presents SDVDiag, a multimodal causal-discovery pipeline that fuses log-based and metric-based service representations into a shared embedding space before graph construction, coupled with an anomaly-driven trigger that converts the diagnostic platform from a manually operated batch tool into a continuously running online system. Evaluation on an Autonomous Valet Parking testbed shows that the multimodal pipeline produces sparser causal graphs than a metrics-only baseline (134 vs. 182 edges on average) and consistently outperforms it in edge-weighted reward against an expert knowledge graph at every stage of human-feedback refinement, showing a 2.4-fold improvement over the baseline after 60 feedback queries. An end-to-end fault-injection scenario further demonstrates that the integrated trigger correctly recovers a true root cause located two causal hops upstream of the observable symptom.