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Computer Science Machine Learning

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Wednesday 10 June

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CC

Token Complexity Theory for AI-Augmented Computing

AI-augmented computing delegates natural language queries, code generation requests, and other open-ended tasks to a cluster of AI models that processes queries and generates responses. This paradigm introduces a resource dimension that neither classical time nor space complexity captures: the cost of sending queries to and receiving responses from such a cluster. We introduce token complexity, a formal resource measure defined as the minimum expected token cost to achieve a specified level of output quality on a task, and develop a taxonomy classifying AI systems by the strength of their probabilistic properties. We develop token complexity within the framework of AI-Oracle Turing machines, in which a probabilistic Turing machine interacts with a stochastic oracle via dedicated query and response tapes. We prove basic theorems establishing that token complexity behaves as expected: monotonicity (higher quality costs more tokens), convexity (quality improvements become progressively more expensive), price sensitivity (small price changes produce bounded cost changes), and price-relativity of task ordering (the token complexity ordering of tasks can reverse depending on the query-to-response cost ratio). We prove that the complexity frontier, defined as the set of all feasible resource bounds in tokens, time, and space, is non-empty, upward-closed, and convex.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kind

The standard taxonomy of predictive uncertainty defines epistemic uncertainty as the part removable by collecting more data, while the standard measure identifies it with a mutual-information term. We prove the definition and the measure are extensionally inconsistent. On an explicit construction, the measure assigns all uncertainty to the epistemic class, yet no quantity of training data reduces it. Reducibility is instead a property of the pair (uncertainty, acquisition class), and the dichotomy resolves into three parts: aleatoric, sample-reducible epistemic, and mechanism-reducible epistemic uncertainty. An exact identity for the value of an observation shows that in-distribution data never reduces mechanism-irreducible uncertainty and generically increases it. Ensemble disagreement, the deployed epistemic estimate, tracks the training procedure rather than the epistemic term. It collapses to zero beneath a positive truth under consistent training, and equals hyperparameter-scaled initialization noise under interpolation. A finite-sample falsification test and seed-swept experiments confirm the theory.
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Machine Learning

TEDD: Robust Detection of Unstable Temporal Features

When working with real-world temporal data, it is common to encounter features whose distribution is changing over time. The naive employment of Machine Learning models on this unstable data might lead to rapidly degrading performance, especially if the new distribution is much different from what was previously seen during training. In order to cope with this problem, it is critical to automatically identify features that are changing over time. With these features detected, data scientists and other practitioners will be able to mitigate the issue (for instance, by applying data transformations), deploying more robust models that retain high performance for longer periods of time. In this paper, we describe which temporal changes a feature should not suffer from, and propose TEDD, a technique to a) identify when a dataset might lead to an unstable Machine Learning model and b) automatically detect which features cause such lack of robustness. In order to achieve it, we leverage a regression model to highlight which features contribute to a good prediction of an instance's timestamp. We compare our approach to other methods in real and synthetic data, testing their detection capability on all simple change patterns. We show that our method: detects all types of basic changes, both for numerical and categorical features; can detect multivariate drifts; returns a comparable value measuring the amount of change of each feature; requires no parameter tuning; and is scalable both on number of features and instances of the dataset.
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All authors Ricardo Ribeiro Pereira, Bruno Casal Laraña, Nádia Soares, Miguel Araújo

Machine Learning

Individual Control Barrier Functions-Guided Diffusion Model for Safe Offline Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Offline reinforcement learning allows control policies to be learned directly from data without online interaction, making it suitable for safety-critical tasks. Recent studies have applied diffusion models to offline reinforcement learning to leverage their strong capacity for modeling complex data distributions. However, existing approaches primarily focus on single-agent settings, leaving the safety challenges in multi-agent environments largely unexplored. In this work, we propose a safe offline multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm that embeds neural individual control barrier functions into the diffusion model to enhance safety during trajectory generation, with control policies recovered through inverse dynamics. We evaluate our algorithm across diverse benchmarks, demonstrating substantial safety improvements while maintaining competitive rewards.
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All authors Qingyun Guo, Junyi Shi, Jianuo Huang, Tianyu Shi

Machine Learning

The Metric Picks the Winner: Evaluation Choice Flips Model Rankings for Drug-Response Prediction in Unseen Chemistry

Predicting how a cell's transcriptome responds to a drug it has never seen is a core, hard problem in computational cell biology: recent benchmarks show complex models often fail to beat trivial baselines once test compounds are held out by chemistry. We study one cell line and assay, THP-1 cells profiled by DRUG-seq, scored by the active-compound weighted MSE(wMSE) of the VCPI prediction contest. We propose a staged approach: dumb baselines (untreated control and mean training-compound response) that the field keeps failing to beat; non-parametric retrieval (a Tanimoto-weighted average of a held-out compound's nearest training compounds); and a fusion stage combining a frozen chemistry embedding with retrieval-support features to predict the residual over the mean, with an uncertainty head and gene programs. On the released VCPI THP-1 drug-seq data (14,026 training compounds), under a Bemis-Murcko scaffold split, the model ranking inverts depending on the metric. Under an inverse-variance per-gene proxy, a regularized linear regression on Morgan fingerprints appears to win over the deep models, retrieval, and ChemBERTa – the textbook "simple baselines win" result. But under the contest's true active-set metric (per-(gene, compound) Mejia weights, validated against the official scorer; mean baseline 0.535 vs the organizers' 0.507 reference), that reverses: the deep models win, our fusion decoder significantly beats the linear fingerprint baseline (-0.012 wMSE, paired bootstrap p < 10^-4), and the proxy's winner becomes the worst chemistry-aware predictor. Picking the metric picks the winner – to our knowledge the first demonstration on real held-out drug chemistry of the metric-calibration effect established largely on genetic perturbation. We release a reproducible pipeline wired to the official scorer that emits a valid submission over the real 1064 x 12,995 grid.
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Machine Learning

Keep Policy Gradient in Charge: Sibling-Guided Credit Distillation for Long-Horizon Tool-Use Agents

Long-horizon tool-use reinforcement learning learns from outcome verification, but trajectory-level advantages are broadcast over reasoning, API, and answer tokens. Direct self-distillation can supply a denser signal, but in our experiments it can also destroy tool use by rehearsing teacher behavior without identifying which actions the verifier rewards. We introduce Sibling-Guided Credit Distillation (SGCD), which uses distillation for bounded credit weighting rather than as a competing actor loss. Dynamic sampling produces mixed successful and failed sibling rollouts; an external LLM summarizes their contrast into a training-only credit reference; and detached teacher/student divergence reshapes GRPO token advantages. The deployed student receives only the clean task prompt. Across AppWorld and tau^3-airline, SGCD reports higher held-out point estimates than GRPO-family comparators: AppWorld TGC improves from 42.9 to 45.6 on test_normal and from 24.7 to 27.0 on test_challenge, and tau^3-airline held-out evaluator score improves from 0.583 to 0.602. These results support a narrow design rule for long-horizon tool-use agents: use distillation to guide credit assignment while keeping policy gradient in charge of the actor update.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

ECA: Efficient Continual Alignment for Open-Ended Image-to-Text Generation

Incremental Learning (IL) for Open-ended Image-to-Text Generation (OpenITG) enables models to continuously generate accurate, contextually relevant text for new images while preserving previously acquired knowledge. Unlike prior studies, this paper addresses a more practical scenario in which the predominant category of visual data shifts over time as environments evolve. In this context, we introduce a new notion of continual alignment, which incrementally adapts the alignment module within pre-trained VLMs to preserve high-quality cross-modal representations. Based on this idea, we propose Efficient Continual Alignment (ECA), a novel exemplar-free IL approach for OpenITG. The key challenge is enabling the model to acquire new, task-specific features while minimizing interference with the established alignment without accessing raw data from previous tasks. To address this, ECA employs three core mechanisms: a Mixture of Query (MoQ) module that adapts task-specific query tokens, a Fisher Dynamic Expansion (FeDEx) that dynamically expands model structure based on a Fisher Information Matrix (FIM)-based metric, and an embedding dictionary with Dictionary Replay (DR) to retain past knowledge. To evaluate ECA's performance, we construct four new IL OpenITG benchmarks that better reflect real-world scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that ECA significantly mitigates catastrophic forgetting and improves IL performance compared to baseline methods. Code and benchmarks are available at https://github.com/Snowball0823/ECA.
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All authors Jiangtao Kong, Peijun Zhao, Chun-Fu Chen, Youngwook Do, Shaohan Hu, Tianyi Zhou, Huajie Shao

Machine Learning

The Signs Were Always There: Training-Free Detection and Control in Raw Transformer Dimensions

Because of polysemanticity and superposition, it has been challenging to attribute token understanding and generation to specific neurons or dimensions. Yet the information in the hidden states is so rich that the signs of the residual stream can surface semantic content in early layers and control what the model generates. We call this sign-pattern-driven interpretation approach Bag of Dims (BoD). Using BoD, we read each dimension of the residual stream individually. Since dimensions carry almost no shared information, a concept is simply the set of dimensions that agree in sign. This lets us discover tens to hundreds of thousands of concepts per model without training or labels. A concept is detectable as early as the first few layers, at AUC above 0.9 across the model families we tested, well before the answer it resolves to becomes legible. BoD can therefore screen harmful prompts at prefill, without a trained guard model. The prediction capability of the signs is strong: setting all magnitudes to unity preserves 56-94% top-5 next-token accuracy through the language model head. Flipping a concept's sign pattern during the forward pass suppresses its logits, and a separate training-free intervention steers a chosen concept into generated text. The BoD method depends on the transformers' per-dimension sign pattern, present across the residual stream, attention, and MLP subspaces, rather than on any particular architecture, making it applicable to a wide range of models.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.AP

Estimating Individualized Treatment Effects in Acute Ischemic Stroke with Causal Transformation Models (TRAM-DAG): A Multi-Centre Observational Study with External RCT Validation

Personalized medicine in acute ischemic stroke requires moving beyond average treatment effects (ATE) to individualized treatment effect (ITE) estimates to support treatment decisions. In acute ischemic stroke, mechanical thrombectomy has been shown to be more effective on average than lysis in randomized controlled trials (RCTs), such as the MR CLEAN study. We aim to identify which individual patients benefit most from mechanical thrombectomy compared to lysis. The outcome of interest is the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at three months, an ordinal measure of functional disability (0: no symptoms, 6: death). We demonstrate that causal transformation models on directed acyclic graphs (TRAM-DAG) can be used for ITE estimation after being fitted on observational MAGIC multi-center stroke patient data. To ensure comparability with the MR CLEAN population, which we use for validation, we train the TRAM-DAG on a MAGIC sub-population with NIHSS at admission >= 6, corresponding to one inclusion criterion of MR CLEAN. The fitted model is then used to estimate ITEs for stroke patients in the MR CLEAN population. While these ITE estimates cannot be confirmed experimentally, we show that their average is consistent with the trial's reported ATE. Furthermore, the ITE estimates correctly rank trial patients by their observed frequency of a good outcome (mRS at three months <= 2). These findings support the use of causal models like TRAM-DAG for personalized decision-making in stroke care and highlight their ability to bridge the gap between observational evidence and clinical trials.
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All authors Lisa Herzog, Oliver Dürr, Pascal Bühler, Hakim Baazaoui, Julian Deseö, Susanne Wegener, Beate Sick

Machine Learning

Towards Provably Fair Machine Learning: Bayesian Approaches For Consistent and Transparent Predictions

ML classifiers deployed in high-stakes domains produce predictions whose quality varies systematically across subgroups. For granular subgroups defined by intersections of multiple features, predictions are often inconsistent with the observed data: the model's outputs contradict the evidence available for that subgroup. This problem is exacerbated by regularisation, which improves aggregate performance by collapsing small subgroups into larger groups, disproportionately affecting demographic minorities. We define two requirements for consistent prediction: determinism (identical individuals receive identical predictions) and statistical consistency (we cannot reject, at significance level alpha, the hypothesis that the predictions for a subgroup were drawn from the Bayesian optimal target distribution inferred for that subgroup). From these requirements we derive the Fair Bayesian classifier, which enforces both across every group and subgroup simultaneously and abstains whenever no consistent deterministic prediction is possible. On three benchmark datasets (Adult, COMPAS, and Bank Marketing), standard classifiers produce statistically inconsistent predictions for a substantial proportion of subgroups. Our classifier achieves zero consistency error by construction while exceeding baseline accuracy and multicalibration on every dataset tested. Statistical consistency provides a principled foundation for prediction quality with direct implications for algorithmic fairness. Minority demographics are disproportionately concentrated in small subgroups, precisely where frequentist inference is least reliable; addressing this inference problem is therefore a necessary step toward fair ML. By enforcing Bayesian consistency at the finest resolution the data supports, the our classifier demonstrates that exhaustive subgroup fairness with principled abstention is achievable in practice.
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Machine Learning

Evaluation of AutoML Frameworks for IDS under Imbalanced Data Conditions of the NSL-KDD Dataset

This work investigates the impact of severe class imbalance on the performance of automated machine learning (AutoML) frameworks for multiclass network intrusion detection using the NSL-KDD dataset. Unlike previous studies that simplify the problem through binary classification or minority-class removal, we preserve the original five-class distribution, including highly underrepresented attacks such as R2L and U2R, enabling a realistic evaluation of imbalance-sensitive learning behavior. Nine open-source AutoML frameworks were analyzed under a unified and reproducible experimental protocol, considering differences in architectural design, ensemble strategies, validation procedures, hyperparameter optimization, and imbalance-handling mechanisms. The results demonstrate that frameworks incorporating ensemble learning and imbalance-aware optimization achieve better minority-class discrimination. PyCaret obtained the best overall performance, reaching 66% macro-F1, followed by AutoGluon with 55%, whereas frameworks lacking native balancing support exhibited significant degradation in minority-class detection capability. The analysis further shows that accuracy-oriented optimization alone is insufficient for highly imbalanced IDS scenarios, since high-weighted metrics may coexist with poor generalization on rare attack categories. As a contribution, this work establishes a standardized benchmark for AutoML-based intrusion detection under severe multiclass imbalance, highlighting current architectural limitations and the need for native integration of imbalance-aware optimization, resampling, and stratified evaluation strategies into automated learning pipelines. The source code is publicly available.
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Machine Learning

The Mathematics of AI Winters: The mathematical Taxonomy of Paradigm Fragility in AI Winter

Two major periods of reduced funding and confidence in artificial intelligence research, commonly called the first and second AI winters, are usually explained through engineering failure, commercial disappointment, and inflated expectations. This article develops a complementary thesis: that the dominant paradigms of those periods also met genuine formal barriers, including limitations of representation, optimisation, computational complexity, statistical learnability, and high-dimensional approximation. The contribution is synthetic rather than archival. We do not claim that particular theorems mechanically caused the winters; rather, we show that several central disappointments of early AI were aligned with mathematically precise bottlenecks. We analyse these bottlenecks through the perceptron impossibility results of Minsky and Papert, the complexity-theoretic hardness of exact neural-network training established by Blum and Rivest, minimax rates for nonparametric estimation in high dimension due to Stone, vanishing-gradient analyses by Hochreiter and by Bengio and collaborators, and classical statistical learning theory in the tradition of Vapnik and Chervonenkis, Valiant, and Blumer and collaborators. We then relate these barriers to the later breakthroughs that mitigated, rather than eliminated, them.
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Machine Learning

Viral Proteins Reveal Geometry of Protein Language Models

Protein language models are trained on highly imbalanced datasets, raising the question of how they represent underrepresented biological sequences. Using viral proteins as a case study across ESM model families, we identify a dominant nativeness axis in embedding space, aligned with masked reconstruction perplexity, that orders sequences from well-modeled cellular proteins through viral proteins to shuffled and random sequences. Scaling contracts this axis unevenly across viral families. Despite this, protein language model embeddings retain viral-specific signal: viral proteins remain linearly separable beyond zero-shot perplexity and shallow sequence features. Together, these results suggest that pLM representations are structured by a general notion of nativeness while preserving information specific to distinct biological groups.
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All authors Arthur Bigot, Harmon Bhasin, Core Francisco Park, Eugene Shakhnovich, Dianzhuo Wang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Shopping Reasoning Bench: An Expert-Authored Benchmark for Multi-Turn Conversational Shopping Assistants

Conversational shopping assistants now serve hundreds of millions of customers, yet no existing benchmark jointly evaluates the open-ended multi-turn reasoning, domain expertise, and criterion-level quality that real shopping conversations demand. Shopping reasoning is unique among language model applications. Unlike factual question answering or verifiable code generation, it requires balancing subjective preferences, budget constraints, and cross-product trade-offs across multi-turn dialogue, capabilities absent from previous e-commerce and general-purpose benchmarks. We introduce the Shopping Reasoning Bench, an expert-authored benchmark of 525 missions (232 single-turn, 293 multi-turn) with 10863 importance-weighted binary rubrics authored by retail domain experts. These criteria are organized under a taxonomy of five reasoning categories and fifteen subcategories covering diverse demands such as preference refinement, trade-off analysis, and compatibility assessment. An evaluation of nine models across three families (GPT, Claude, Gemini) shows that pass rates reach only 57–77% overall. On multi-turn missions, all models score 13–29 points lower on optional above-and-beyond criteria than on required ones, and performance degrades 4–18 points as conversations progress. These gaps show that current models handle basic shopping assistance but fall short of expert-level advice, making Shopping Reasoning Bench a challenging testbed for future shopping assistant development.
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All authors Shuxian Fan, Seonwoo Min, Youna Hu, Botao Xia, Jayakrishnan Unnikrishnan, Rowan Musselmann, Yifan Gao, Qingyu Yin, Priyanka Nigam, Bing Yin

Machine Learning

Emerging Flexible Designs for Geospatial Multimodal Foundation Models

Foundation models are rapidly transforming Earth observation by enabling scalable pretraining across diverse unlabeled geospatial modalities. However, their architectural diversity ranging from encoder-only to encoder-decoder and masked autoencoding paradigms makes it challenging to assess performance trade offs in a consistent manner. In this work, we present an apples-to-apples comparison of leading FM architectures designed for geospatial multimodal reasoning, with a particular focus on flexibility across varied spectral band configurations. We standardize pretraining using identical self supervised learning objectives and training datasets, and evaluate all models under consistent parameterization on the GEOBench benchmark across classification and segmentation tasks. Our results offer new insights into the design trade-offs between model flexibility, modality alignment, and downstream task performance. By highlighting architectural strengths and limitations under controlled conditions, this study provides practical guidance for building next generation geospatial foundation models capable of robust multimodal reasoning.
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All authors Philipe Dias, Waqwoya Abebe, Abhishek Potnis, Aristeidis Tsaris, Dan Lu, Xiao Wang, Dalton Lunga

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.comp-ph

Feature-preserving Latent-EnKF for Data Assimilation of Flows with Shocks

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely adopted for sequential data assimilation, but fails for solutions with discontinuities, such as shocks in compressible flows. For ensembles with uncertainty in discontinuity location, the EnKF analysis can lose physical consistency, which can be viewed through three lenses: (i) bimodal pointwise statistics in the forecast ensemble, (ii) mixed-sign analysis weights in the affine superposition of forecast members, and (iii) spatially distributed Kalman-gain profiles that modify the state around a discontinuity rather than translating it coherently. In order to preserve flow features in the analysis state and, as such, maintain physical consistency, a feature-preserving latent-EnKF is introduced. The proposed method performs the ensemble update in a low-dimensional latent space learned by a coordinate-conditioned auto-decoder. The latent representation retains near-Gaussian ensemble statistics and provides coordinates in which flow features vary coherently across the forecast ensemble. The EnKF updates performed on the latent codes are decoded into coherent changes in the represented flow features, translating shocks through coordinate morphing rather than superposing them at displaced locations. The corresponding Kalman-gain profiles generated by the latent-EnKF exhibit an approximately step-like variation across the discontinuities, allowing the fronts to translate while preserving sharp features and monotonicity. Sod shock-tube, Mach~2 shock-cylinder, and immersed-body shape-inference tests with sparse, noisy observations demonstrate accurate recovery of shocks and contact discontinuities without spurious oscillations.
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All authors Hemanth Chandravamsi, Hangchuan Hu, Ponkrshnan Thiagarajan, Tamer A. Zaki

Machine Learning

Crossing the Validation Crisis: Cross-Validation Reduces Benchmarking Variance Surprisingly Well

Modern machine learning progresses through empirical work, benchmarking new methods to evaluate relative performance. However, the statistical variability inherent to evaluation - exacerbated by the stochastic nature of many algorithms - often makes performance estimation unreliable due to the limited test samples available, leading to a validation crisis in which genuine advances are difficult to discern. In this work, we show that cross-validation improves markedly confidence when evaluating and comparing learning algorithm performances. We introduce the concept of sample gain, which quantifies the virtual data augmentation achieved by using multiple cross-validation splits to reduce benchmarking variance. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets (histopathologic scans and NLP fine-tuning) demonstrate that multiple splits can substantially improve the reliability and stability of performance estimates, with diminishing returns often setting in later than expected. We also introduce a procedure to dynamically early-stop cross-validation by estimating from the first few folds if subsequent folds will bring large sample gains. Our findings highlight the value of pushing cross-validation on available samples to achieve robust and reliable benchmarking.
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Machine Learning

Rubric-Guided Self-Distillation: Post-Training Without Rubric Verifiers

Rubrics have emerged as an alternative to RLVR in open-ended domains where a single ground-truth final answer is not available. Existing rubric-based training methods rely on an LLM verifier that scores each rollout against rubrics. This introduces substantial training-time overhead, exposes optimization to verifier-specific biases, and reduces rubric feedback to a sparse end-of-trajectory signal. We propose Rubric-Guided Self-Distillation (RGSD), a verifier-free training method in which the base policy, conditioned on the rubric, serves as the teacher for the unconditioned student. RGSD distills the rubric-conditioned teacher distribution into the student token-by-token, replacing sparse trajectory-level rewards with dense per-token learning signals and removing the LLM judge from the training loop entirely. Across Qwen-2.5 (3B, 7B) and Qwen3-Thinking (4B, 8B) models on medical and science domains, RGSD achieves rubric satisfaction comparable to judge-based GRPO while using one on-policy rollout per prompt and no training-time verifier calls. Ablations show that raw rubrics provide a stronger teacher enrichment signal than self-generated reference responses, while a stronger GRPO judge can outperform RGSD in some settings, positioning RGSD as a complementary verifier-free alternative when verifier cost or reliability is the bottleneck.
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All authors MohammadHossein Rezaei, Anas Mahmoud, Zihao Wang, Utkarsh Tyagi, Advait Gosai, Razvan-Gabriel Dumitru, Aakash Sabharwal, Bing Liu, Yunzhong He

Machine Learning

Boosting Direct Preference Optimization with Penalization

Offline preference optimization has become a practical substitute for reinforcement learning from human feedback, but pairwise objectives such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants use only the chosen and rejected responses stored in a static dataset. This leaves a useful signal unused: the response that the reference model itself would generate for the same prompt. We propose Direct Preference Optimization with Penalization (DPOP), a simple extension of DPO that augments the base preference loss with a gated penalty on reference-greedy responses. DPOP activates this penalty only when the current policy still assigns a lower likelihood to the preferred response than to the rejected response. On AlpacaEval 2.0, DPOP improves length-controlled win rate over DPO, SimPO, and AlphaDPO on both Llama-3-8b-it and Gemma-2-9b-it, achieving relative gains of 5.3% and 4.4% over baselines on the two models, respectively. Ablations further show that a SimNPO-style length-normalized penalty is stronger than NPO and token-level unlikelihood in this setting.
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Machine Learning

Dolph2Vec: Self-Supervised Representations of Dolphin Vocalizations

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has opened new opportunities in bioacoustics by enabling scalable modeling of animal vocalizations without the need for expensive manual annotation. However, current SSL models in this domain prioritize broad generalization across species and are not optimized for uncovering the fine-grained structure of individual communication systems. In this work, we collect and release a novel dataset of over five years of longitudinal recordings, from five known dolphins in a semi-naturalistic marine environment, an unprecedented resource for studying dolphin communication. We adapt the Wav2Vec2.0 Baevski et al. (2020) architecture to this domain and introduce Dolph2Vec, the first large-scale, species-specific SSL model trained exclusively on this data. We benchmark our model on two biologically relevant tasks: signature whistle classification and whistle detection. Dolph2Vec significantly outperforms general-purpose baselines in both tasks. Beyond performance, we show that learned embeddings and codebook structure capture interpretable acoustic units aligned with dolphin whistle categories and possibly sub-whistle structure, enabling fine-grained analysis of communication patterns. Our findings demonstrate how SSL can serve as both a model and a scientific tool to explore hypotheses in animal communication research.
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All authors Chiara Semenzin, Faadil Mustun, Roberto Dessi, Pierre Orhan, Alexis Emanuelli, Yair Lakretz, Gonzalo de Polavieja, German Sumbre

Machine Learning

Policy-driven Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy QoT Estimation

We propose Conformal QoT, a policy-driven framework that combines statistically guaranteed QoT estimation with operational decision policies, enabling reliable lightpath-feasibility predictions under domain shift and improving accuracy from 92% to 99.6% on open datasets.
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All authors Kiarash Rezaei, Omran Ayoub, Paolo Monti, Carlos Natalino

Machine Learning

Improving Crash Frequency Prediction from Simulated Traffic Conflicts Using Machine Learning Based Microsimulation

Traffic microsimulation combined with surrogate safety measures has increasingly been used as a proactive alternative to historical crash data for predicting crash frequency for current or planned road infrastructure designs. However, existing microsimulation-based safety studies have adopted simplified rule-based behaviour models, which reproduce traffic flow reasonably well but often fail to generate realistic conflict dynamics, limiting crash prediction accuracy. Recent advances in machine learning (ML)-based behaviour models offer a promising opportunity to potentially improve microsimulation realism and crash frequency predictions by learning human driving behaviour directly from large-scale trajectory datasets. To investigate this possibility, traffic microsimulation was conducted for five real-world signalised intersections in Leeds, UK, using both a standard rule-based model and a state-of-the-art ML model. Simulated vehicle trajectories were analysed using a two-dimensional Time-to-Collision metric to identify simulated conflicts, which were then modelled using Extreme Value Theory to predict crash frequency. Results show that conflicts from the ML model yielded crash predictions in line with the real-world crash data, whereas the rule-based model did not permit meaningful predictions, presumably due to a lack of model calibration to the specific simulated intersections. Directly using ML-generated simulated crashes to predict real-world crash frequency also yielded poor results, suggesting that while current ML models can realistically reproduce conflicts, they are not yet able to generate realistic crashes. Overall, the findings demonstrate that ML-based behaviour models are promising for improving crash prediction from simulated conflicts, without a need for location-specific model calibration, and suggest clear future directions for ML-based traffic microsimulation.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

From Parameters to Feature Space: Task Arithmetic for Backdoor Mitigation in Model Merging

Model merging (MM) has gained significant attention as a cost-effective approach to integrate multiple task-specific models into a unified model. However, recent work reveals that MM is highly susceptible to backdoor attacks. Existing defenses based on task arithmetic often fail to eliminate backdoors without substantially degrading clean-task performance, owing to their reliance on direct parameter-space editing. To address this gap, we propose Linear Feature Path Minimization (LFPM), a backdoor mitigation framework for model merging, which introduces an anti-backdoor task vector into the backdoored merged model. Unlike prior approaches, LFPM formulates the backdoor robustness of the merged model from a unified feature-space perspective under the Cross-Task Linearity (CTL) framework, which leverages the approximate linearity of features across tasks. This perspective guides the optimization of the anti-backdoor task to suppress backdoors while preserving clean-task performance. Furthermore, we introduce an effective optimization mechanism based on gradient accumulation and loss path-integral, ensuring robust backdoor suppression along the interpolation path. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LFPM consistently exhibits strong robustness against backdoor attacks in both full fine-tuning and Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) settings.
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All authors Zhenqian Zhu, Yamin Hu, Yiya Diao, Weixiang Li, Haodong Li, Wenjian Luo

Machine Learning

$\mu$VLA: On Recurrent Memory for Partially Observable Manipulation in VLA Models

Vision-language-action (VLA) models predict chunks of future actions from the current observation, an assumption that fails under partial observability, where decisions depend on information no longer visible. Existing memory-augmented VLAs simultaneously introduce recurrence, retrieval, compression modules, auxiliary objectives, hierarchical memory, or task-specific architectural changes, so the contribution of recurrence itself remains entangled with surrounding machinery. We present a controlled isolation study of recurrence in a strong pretrained VLA backbone. Our formulation augments the transformer with a small set of learnable memory tokens carried across timesteps and updated through self-attention, trained end to end with truncated backpropagation through time, with no auxiliary losses and no architectural changes. We instantiate this as $\mu$VLA, a family of OpenVLA-OFT variants parameterized by memory width m, TBPTT length K, and the memory update rule (cross-step gradients or a detached EMA), so that recurrence is the only varying factor. On MIKASA-Robo, $\mu$VLA improves average success rate on five training tasks from 0.42 to 0.84 at the strongest setting and reaches 0.23 on held-out tasks with the same memory structure versus 0.07 for the memoryless baseline. On tasks requiring different memory structure, performance remains near baseline. On LIBERO, the strongest recurrent variant achieves 96.2% average success, indicating no regression under full observability. We interpret these results as a calibration of the capability envelope of minimal in-backbone recurrence, identifying the regime in which it is sufficient and the regime where additional memory structure is required. Demos and videos can be found in https://avanturist322.github.io/mu-vla/.
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All authors Egor Cherepanov, Nikita Kachaev, Daniil Zelezetsky, Aydar Bulatov, Artem Pshenitsyn, Yuri Kuratov, Alexey Skrynnik, Aleksandr I. Panov, Alexey K. Kovalev

Machine Learning

Net-Ev$^2$: A Generative Simulator for Network Event Evolution

Reducing real-world trial and error has long been a central goal of decision making, and generative simulators advance this goal by modeling the evolution of future states. An even more challenging yet meaningful task is simulating how disturbance events (e.g., accidents) propagate their impacts across real-world networks. The existing approaches fall short of modeling both structured attributes and unstructured semantics of events, and capturing topological structures in simulating network event evolution. Therefore, we are motivated to propose Net-Ev$^2$ ($\underline{\textbf{Net}}$work $\underline{\textbf{Ev}}$ent $\underline{\textbf{Ev}}$olution), a novel generative simulator that jointly leverages event cues while preserving network topology in simulations. Specifically, the framework consists of two stages, namely structure-guided masked pre-training and topology-aware diffusion process, which is achieved by U-Net-like graph downsampling and upsampling during denoising. At inference time, Net-Ev$^2$ can generate simulations using natural-language event input only, with greater flexibility for practical usage. Furthermore, we introduce Net-Ev$^2$-6.5M, a multimodal benchmark of aligned event and network traffic data across four large-scale road networks, as well as a new topology-aware metric, namely JL-MMD, to evaluate topological fidelity in generated network dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance and strong generalization ability of Net-Ev$^2$. Code is made available at https://github.com/Guangyu4/Net-Ev-2.
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Machine Learning

Robustness Verification of Recurrent Neural Networks with Abstraction Refinement

Certified local robustness verification for recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is challenging because approximation errors introduced by nonlinear relaxations can propagate through recurrent connections and accumulate over time. As a result, scalable linear bound propagation methods often become overly conservative and fail to certify inputs that are in fact robust, especially when many pre-activation intervals cross zero. We propose an abstraction-refinement framework for RNN verification that partitions such intervals to remove the dominant relaxation error: on each refined branch, ReLU becomes exact, and smooth activations such as tanh and sigmoid admit substantially tighter linear envelopes. To control the combinatorial cost of splitting in long sequences, we introduce a SHAP-guided timestep selection strategy that ranks hidden states by their contribution to the verification objective and refines only the most critical timesteps in temporal order. Experiments on CIFAR10 and MNIST stroke benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in verification success and robustness-margin tightness over abstraction-only baselines, while exposing clear runtime trade-offs between ReLU and tanh models.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IT

Masked Neural Detection for Run-Length-Limited Channel Coding in Molecular Communication

Molecular communication (MC) suffers from severe diffusion memory because molecules released for one symbol may arrive during later symbol intervals. Neural sequence detectors, especially sliding bidirectional recurrent neural networks (SBRNNs), substantially outperform threshold detection in such channels. This raises a central question for MC channel coding: does a code whose superiority was established under threshold detection retain it when both coded and uncoded transmission are evaluated with neural detection? This letter answers this question for run-length-limited ISI-mitigation (RLIM) codes by proposing a decoder-aware training mask that removes the positions the RLIM decoder has a high probability of deterministically overwriting, steering compact-SBRNN capacity toward the information-bearing positions. The masked RLIM$_2$-SBRNN beats the best uncoded receiver (threshold or SBRNN) at 40 of 57 operating points; gains peak at 43$\times$ under favorable channels, while losses, confined to the most adverse, never exceed 2.7$\times$. Masking improves the unmasked RLIM$_2$-SBRNN in 56 of 57 matched comparisons. Finally, with storage counted equally in SBRNN weights and MLSE table entries, the masked RLIM$_2$-SBRNN is the more accurate receiver up to a few thousand stored values despite using no channel knowledge; channel-state-aware uncoded MLSE moves ahead only beyond tens of thousands.
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Machine Learning

A Stationary (and Therefore Compatible) Representation is All You Need

Learning compatible representations aims to learn feature representations that can be used interchangeably over time whenever a model undergoes updates. In this paper, we demonstrate that stationary representations learned by d-Simplex fixed classifiers imply compatibility as in its formal definition. This result establishes a foundation for future works and can be directly exploited in practical learning scenarios. We address the challenge of learning compatibility using $d$-Simplex fixed classifiers when the model is sequentially fine-tuned. Learning according to a d-Simplex fixed classifier with the cross-entropy loss aligns feature distributions at the first-order statistics. Consequently, it may not fully capture higher-order dependencies in the representation between model updates. To address this issue, we demonstrate that training the model using a $d$-Simplex fixed classifier through a convex combination of the cross-entropy loss and a contrastive loss not only captures higher-order dependencies, but is also equivalent to learning with the cross-entropy under the compatibility constraints. We confirm our findings with extensive experiments also considering a new scenario where a pre-trained model is sequentially fine-tuned and occasionally replaced with an improved model. We show that stationary representations enable uninterrupted retrieval services (without reprocessing gallery images) while improving performance during model updates and replacements, achieving state-of-the-art. Code at https://github.com/miccunifi/iamcl2r.
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All authors Niccolò Biondi, Federico Pernici, Simone Ricci, Alberto Del Bimbo

Machine Learning

PhaseQuant: Mitigating Activation Quantization Collapse via Residual-Stream Dynamics

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is essential for efficient large language model (LLM) inference, but reliably quantizing activations remains challenging when weights, activations, and KV caches are all quantized to 4-bit precision. A key difficulty lies in massive activations, whose extreme values dominate the activation range and amplify quantization error. State-of-the-art methods mitigate massive activations through transformation-based smoothing, such as orthogonal rotations and affine scaling, but overlook the cross-layer dynamics of the residual stream. In this paper, we show that massive activations emerge and disappear in a phase-wise pattern across network depth, injecting abrupt updates into the residual stream. These updates cause the newly injected layer-wise signal to dominate the 4-bit quantization scale and weaken the accumulated residual information. To characterize this behavior, we introduce two metrics, the Update Dominance Ratio (UDR) and the Historical Retention Score (HRS), and show that static transformation-based smoothing cannot fully resolve the resulting dynamic quantization instability. Based on this analysis, we propose PhaseQuant, a phase-aware mixed-precision post-training quantization policy for activation quantization. PhaseQuant identifies quantization-sensitive layers from residual-stream dynamics and assigns 8-bit activation precision only to these layers, while keeping weights, KV caches, and all remaining activations at 4-bit precision. It can be directly integrated with strong PTQ baselines such as QuaRot, SpinQuant, and FlatQuant. Experiments on LLaMA-2 and LLaMA-3 show that PhaseQuant consistently improves perplexity and zero-shot QA performance under W4A4KV4 quantization, while achieving 1.05$\times$–1.07$\times$ throughput improvement with modest memory overhead. These results demonstrate a practical path toward robust low-bit LLM inference.
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All authors Zimo Zhao, Maolin Wang, Bowen Yu, Bowen Liu, Xiao Han, Xiangyu Zhao

Machine Learning

An Empirical Study on Predictive Maintenance for Component X in Heavy-Duty Scania Trucks

Condition-based Predictive Maintenance (PdM) for truck fleets has gained momentum in recent years. This maintenance strategy aims to minimize unplanned downtimes and reduce costs by monitoring the health status of vehicles and taking proactive action based on their condition. However, the implementation of condition-based PdM systems is challenging due to the large volume of data generated by the trucks, the inherent complexity of detecting failures through sensor data and the difficulties in finding cost-effective trade-offs in the solution's implementation. In this paper, we define and validate a condition-based PdM methodology built on the assumption that the wear-and-tear state of the monitored component can be represented as a monotonically non-decreasing time series. It involves selecting only the most recent observations from the time series and transforming them into a tabular format for classification using machine learning (ML) models designed for tabular data. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology reduces costs on the Scania Component X dataset compared to current state-of-the-art (SOTA) approaches, while also simplifying the modeling process through AutoML.
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