Peer Revenue Equity in science

Papers

Fresh from arXiv, typeset properly. Highlighted words trade on the market.

Computer Science Machine Learning

cs.LG Watch Machine Learning (sign in to use)

Wednesday 3 June

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR

Distributional Approximate Nearest Neighbour Search for Uncertainty-Aware Retrieval

Approximate Nearest Neighbour search indices form the backbone of real-world recommender systems, enabling real-time candidate retrieval over million-item catalogues. Typically, a single point estimate embedding is learnt for every user and every item. At serving time, the user embedding queries the index for relevant items. Since these representations are learnt from sparse interaction data, they are noisy and might fail to capture all the nuances that contribute to “relevance” – ignoring the fundamental uncertainty that is inherent to them. The result is a retrieval pipeline that is systematically biased toward the small minority of popular head items with well-estimated embeddings, at the expense of the long-tail majority of niche, diverse, and serendipitous content. We propose DINOSAUR (Distributional Approximate Nearest Neighbour Search for Uncertainty-Aware Retrieval): a simple and infrastructure-compatible framework to incorporate embedding uncertainty into candidate generation. Rather than indexing point estimates, DINOSAUR samples $S_i$ embeddings per item and constructs an index on this augmented set. Analogously, at query time, a user embedding is sampled. This two-sided stochastic retrieval process implicitly marginalises over embedding uncertainty, without requiring changes to model architecture or ANN index infrastructure. On the analytical side, we show that DINOSAUR recovers standard point-estimate retrieval as uncertainty vanishes, and we characterise how increased embedding variance expands the regions of latent space in which uncertain items are retrievable. Reproducible empirical observations align with these expectations, showing large coverage gains with small losses in offline recall.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

HalfNet: Randomized Neural Networks with Learned Subspace Geometry

Many researchers investigated neural networks with some of their weights fixed to values randomly drawn from a given distribution, e.g., $N(0, I)$. Our proposed HalfNet draws random weights from $N(0, \Sigma)$, where $\Sigma$, which defines the geometry of the distribution, has a low-rank factorization that we learn from data. Experiments on MNIST and CIFAR-10 demonstrate that HalfNet can match the performance of fully trained multilayer perceptrons while using substantially fewer parameters. Spectral analysis indicates that much of the predictive power of neural networks lies in the geometry of their weight space rather than in the precise values of individual parameters, and we observe that accuracy scales smoothly with rank. HalfNet is not a neural architecture trick for low-rank structure; it implements a data-dependent random embedding that can also be interpreted through supervised metric learning, or random-feature and kernel perspectives.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.comp-ph

Reconstructing Unobservable Temperature Fields via Simulation-Aided Intelligent Sensing

Real-time monitoring of the temperature distribution within components and sub-structures is a challenging topic in many systems due to restrictions on feasible sensor locations. While machine learning (ML) proves a versatile tool in many applications, its adoption for high-resolution thermal monitoring is hindered by the availability of high-quality datasets for training. In this work, we propose a novel approach for generating datasets for industrial applications based on randomized physics-based simulations. We demonstrate the approach in a proof-of-concept hardware setup: A neural network (NN) trained only on such a synthetic dataset, is used to reconstruct the internal temperature field from sparse sensors embedded in the hardware. The NN-based reconstructions do not only outperform Kriging in robustness but also enable real-time inference, making the method suitable for online monitoring of otherwise unobservable thermal states.
Read the full abstract

All authors Monika Stipsitz, Hèlios Sanchis-Alepuz, Jacob Reynvaan, Silvester Sabathiel

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

ReSGA: A Large Tail Risk Model for Learning Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall

Learning Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) is important for managing financial risks effectively. Existing approaches with limited parameters are vulnerable to model misspecification in the era of big data. To address this limitation, we propose a large tail risk model, the retrieval-enhanced self-grouping autoencoder (ReSGA), which is designed with millions of parameters to exploit the rich cross-sectional dependence and long-term temporal dynamics of assets using their characteristics. Applied to monthly US equity returns from 1926 to 2023 with 153 firm characteristics, ReSGA outperforms twelve econometric and machine learning competitors in terms of out-of-sample loss and statistical backtesting. In addition, its forecast advantages can translate into significant economic gains from long-short decile portfolios that are constructed by a new size-enhanced left-side momentum strategy. To clarify the role of complexity, we further conduct a systematic scaling analysis and demonstrate that improvements in joint VaR-ES forecasting are primarily driven by data complexity rather than model complexity. Finally, our analyses of group-importance and transfer-learning exhibit the interpretability and cross-market generalizability of ReSGA.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Dynamic Multi-Pair Trading Strategy in Cryptocurrency Markets with Deep Reinforcement Learning

This study aims to determine whether the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a specialized execution overlay can enhance pair trading in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets. Although classical implementations of the strategy have proven successful in traditional equities, they frequently exhibit rigidity and suffer from severe divergence risks when applied to high-variance environments. To construct a robust system, we developed a hierarchical "Filter-then-Rank" pair selection methodology and a custom "Fixed Risk, Adaptive Mean" execution model. The system employs a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) layer to govern execution decisions within strict deterministic risk management boundaries. Evaluated on 1-hour interval data from the Binance USD-M Futures market, the selected RL policy achieved an Out-Of-Sample performance that substantially outperformed the heuristic baseline, although the results varied considerably across five random seeds, with four of the five seeds exceeding the baseline in both CAGR and Sortino Ratio. A stationary circular block bootstrap test of the Agent's risk-adjusted outperformance yields p-values of approximately 0.06, which fall just short of the conventional 5% significance threshold. Ultimately, this study contributes to the quantitative finance literature by introducing a hybrid architecture that combines statistical arbitrage with DRL execution policies. Furthermore, it applies safe reinforcement learning via deterministic shielding, with results indicating that anchoring a neural policy to statistically robust boundaries mitigates severe divergence risks.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

SurvPFN: Towards Foundation Models for Survival Predictions

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched. Unlike in standard regression tasks, survival prediction models must account for censored data. Standard TFMs cannot handle natively censored data, leading to biased and inaccurate predictions, making them unsuitable for real-world applications. To overcome this fundamental limitation, we propose SurvPFN, a prior-data fitted network (PFN), for survival prediction tasks. We pretrain SurvPFN on millions of synthetic survival prediction tasks to learn survival via distributional regression that accounts for censored data. SurvPFN works by (1) generating data with Weibull event times and a non-informative censoring mechanism; (2) integrating a censored event indicator; and (3) minimizing a censored negative log-likelihood. On SurvSet, a collection of real-world survival tasks, SurvPFN is highly competitive with classical and deep survival baselines without per-dataset fitting, a survival-specific architecture, or feature engineering. We show that survival can be treated as a continuous-time distributional regression problem with censored loss, unlocking the power of PFNs for time-to-event predictions.
Read the full abstract

All authors Samuel Böhm, Lennart Purucker, Frank Hutter, Pascal Schlosser

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Neetyabhas: A Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Public Policy Optimization in Rational Agent-Based Models

Purpose The WHO's COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., lockdowns, vaccinations) effectively curb transmission but impose heavy economic strains. Existing research often neglects individual behaviors and falsely assumes perfect infection tracking and flawless policy execution, failing to account for real-world uncertainties and errors. Methods We propose an integrative approach incorporating uncertainties in both epidemic measurement (infections/hospitalizations) and policy implementation. We built a simulation model of 1,000 individuals making real-time choices regarding mask-wearing, vaccination, and shopping. Concurrently, policymakers deploy interventions (lockdowns, mandates) based on health and economic observations. This framework is driven by hierarchical reinforcement learning agents, utilizing deep Q-networks alongside uncertainty-aware policy gradient variants (DDPG and TD3). Results The simulations effectively managed the epidemic's progression. Masking and vaccinations proved highly effective, significantly reducing both the outbreak's peak height and duration. By integrating individual behaviors, policy uncertainties, and multifaceted interventions, our dynamic control approach successfully mitigated the epidemic's impact. Conclusions Our model overcomes previous research limitations by embedding uncertainty and human behavior into public health policy frameworks. The simulation demonstrates that accounting for individual choices and imperfect data is crucial for designing effective interventions during complex pandemics, with masks and vaccines serving as pivotal tools.
Read the full abstract

All authors Janani Venugopalan, Gaurav Deshkar, Rishabh Gaur, Harshal Hayatnagarkar, Jayanta Kshirsagar

Machine Learning

Rollout-Level Advantage-Prioritized Experience Replay for GRPO

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards with GRPO is a standard approach for post-training reasoning LLMs. It remains sample inefficient. Each rollout is used for a single gradient update and then discarded. Naive replay is not well suited in this setting because LLM policies drift quickly per gradient step. Stored rollouts therefore become stale and can destabilize training. We propose a rollout-level replay buffer for GRPO that stores and samples individual rollouts rather than whole groups. The buffer bounds staleness through age eviction. Any rollout older than tau_max training steps is removed. The buffer also preserves on-policy data via fresh-anchored composition. Each batch keeps its fresh on-policy rollouts and then concatenates replay rollouts drawn separately from the buffer. We prioritize replay by per-rollout advantage magnitude and recycle individual rollouts whose advantages are large. Across three Qwen3-Base scales on five math benchmarks, our method outperforms GRPO and naive replay baselines. Gains are positive at every scale and reach +1.66 pp on the five-benchmark average at 4B. Under an AES metric that jointly measures accuracy and token efficiency, our method is the only condition with a positive margin over GRPO at every scale.
Read the full abstract

All authors Gyeongtae Yoo, Sanghyeok Park, Soohyuk Jang, Ik-hwan Kim, Sungroh Yoon

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Cartridges at Scale: Training Modular KV Caches over Large Document Collections

Large Language Models can reason over long contexts, yet prefilling millions of tokens is wasteful as much of the content remains static across queries. Cartridges address this by distilling document collections into reusable key-value (KV) caches that eliminate prefilling while preserving accuracy. A critical limitation of this approach is that cartridges are monolithic and non-compositional: encoding an entire collection into a single KV block does not scale, and naively mixing cartridges trained in isolation collapses performance to near chance. We introduce Cartridges at Scale (CAS), a training framework for scalable multi-cartridge learning with dynamic distractor mixing and a memory-efficient budget manager that rotates hundreds of per-document cartridges between GPU and persistent storage. Our approach scales to collections exceeding a million tokens, improving over a monolithic cartridge by 10-31 points at comparable token budgets. Oracle cartridge accuracy falls within 2-6 points of full in-context learning even at high compression. When paired with retrieval for cartridge selection, CAS matches or exceeds conventional RAG accuracy while consuming 3-4x fewer prompt tokens.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

GENEB: Why Genomic Models Are Hard to Compare

Progress in genomic foundation models is difficult to assess due to fragmented benchmarks, incompatible evaluation protocols, and task-specific reporting. As a result, claims of superiority or generality across models are often not directly comparable. We introduce GENEB, a large-scale diagnostic benchmark that evaluates frozen representations from 40 genomic foundation models across 100 tasks spanning 13 functional categories under a unified probing-based protocol, including few-shot regimes. GENEB enables controlled comparison across model scale, architecture, tokenization, and pretraining data while explicitly exposing task-level trade-offs. Our analysis shows that aggregate leaderboards are unstable: model rankings vary sharply across task categories, scale provides only modest and inconsistent gains, and architectural and pretraining alignment frequently outweigh parameter count. These results highlight limitations of current evaluation practices and position GENEB as a reference framework for principled comparison and category-aware model selection in genomic machine learning.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR

ANN Search: Recall What Matters

Approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) search has become a core primitive in information retrieval and modern machine learning tasks, from classification to retrieval-augmented generation. The community evaluates and tunes ANN algorithms primarily on their throughput at a given Recall@k, the fraction of true exact neighbors retrieved. We argue that what really matters in ANN search is the quality of the retrieved results and not their overlap with the true kNN set. We show that using Recall@k to assess retrieval quality forces unnecessary computational overhead and investigate replacing it by 1/Ratio@k, the inverse approximation ratio. 1/Ratio@k evaluates the differences between the distances of the retrieved and true neighbors. It is judge-free, hyperparameter-free, and computable from standard ANN benchmark inputs alone. We benchmark state-of-the-art ANN algorithms across diverse datasets spanning a wide range of intrinsic dimensionalities, evaluating the two metrics comprehensively across efficiency, downstream classification, and retrieval-augmented generation. On the efficiency axis, optimizing for 1/Ratio@k reaches operational quality thresholds at a substantially lower computational cost than Recall@k. In downstream tasks, performance indicators (label precision, semantic similarity, BERTScore, and LLM-graded quality) remain highly stable even when Recall@k drops significantly. The inverse approximation ratio, on the other hand, closely mirrors this stability, tracking true utility much better than Recall@k. Ultimately, while Recall@k overstates the true cost of approximation, 1/Ratio@k offers a more accurate, deployable proxy for actual ANN quality.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

GeoMin: Data-Efficient Semi-Supervised RLVR via Geometric Distribution Modeling

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) significantly advances LLM reasoning, yet it faces a dilemma: standard supervised scaling is throttled by high annotation costs, while unsupervised alternatives suffer from severe model collapse. Recent semi-supervised RLVR methods address this by using a small labeled set to guide unlabeled data, achieving a promising trade-off between training efficacy and annotation cost. However, they suffer from a severe data-efficiency bottleneck due to the reliance on coarse performance heuristics, leaving a vast majority of valuable instances underutilized. To this end, we propose GeoMin, which models global feature distributions on labeled data to decode the structural discrepancy between correct and incorrect rollouts, thereby establishing a robust prior to assess the reliability of self-reward signals and fully unleash the potential of unlabeled data. Empirically, GeoMin outperforms the strongest baselines by +4.1% and even surpasses fully supervised models with only 10% of the annotations, demonstrating remarkable data efficiency.
Read the full abstract

All authors Guangcheng Zhu, Shenzhi Yang, Haobo Wang, Xing Zheng, Yingfan MA, Xuening Feng, Zhongqi Chen, Kai Tang, Zhengqing Zang, Bowen Song, Weiqiang Wang, Gang Chen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

SparDA: Sparse Decoupled Attention for Efficient Long-Context LLM Inference

Sparse attention reduces compute and memory bandwidth for long-context LLM inference. However, two key challenges remain: (1) KV cache capacity still grows with sequence length, and offloading to CPU memory introduces a PCIe transfer bottleneck; (2) the sparse selection step itself retains $O(T^2)$ complexity and can dominate attention cost at long contexts. We propose SparDA, a decoupled sparse attention architecture that introduces a fourth per-layer projection, the Forecast, alongside Query, Key, and Value. The Forecast predicts the KV blocks needed by the next layer, enabling lookahead selection that overlaps CPU-to-GPU prefetch with current-layer execution. Because Forecast is decoupled from the attention query, our GQA implementation uses one Forecast head per GQA group, reducing selection overhead versus the original multi-head selector. SparDA adds $<$0.5% parameters and trains only the Forecast projections by matching the original selector's attention distribution. On two sparse-pretrained 8B models, SparDA matches or slightly improves accuracy and delivers up to 1.25$\times$ prefill speedup and 1.7$\times$ decode speedup over the sparse-attention offload baseline. By enabling larger feasible batch sizes on a single GPU, SparDA further reaches up to 5.3$\times$ higher decode throughput than the non-offload sparse baseline. Our source code is available at https://github.com/NVlabs/SparDA.
Read the full abstract

All authors Yaosheng Fu, Guangxuan Xiao, Xin Dong, Song Han, Oreste Villa

Machine Learning

Smart Picks in the Dark: Towards Efficient RLVR for Reasoning via Tracing Metacognitive Pivots

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has greatly advanced large reasoning models (LRMs), but it requires timely training on a huge fully-annotated dataset. To this end, data-efficient RLVR methods have been widely studied from two perspectives: (i) data selection methods identify a small subset of "golden" samples that yield near-full-data performance, but they rely on a pre-existing pool of labeled data. (ii) unsupervised RLVR methods train the model using its own internal supervision signals on large-scale unlabeled data, yet they exhibit suboptimal performance. Accordingly, we investigate the "pick in the dark" setup for RLVR, which aims to select, without prior supervision, unlabeled samples that are most beneficial for training and worthy of annotation. Through systematic analysis, we demonstrate that smart picks hinge on a well-calibrated uncertainty estimator to enable strategic partitioning of data for adaptive training regimes. Building on this insight, we propose PivotTrace, a three-way data triage framework that leverages attention dynamics to trace metacognitive pivots during reasoning. By precisely quantifying uncertainty through pivot density, PivotTrace achieves automated data routing to synergistically maximize both annotation and training efficiency. Empirically, PivotTrace surpasses the fully supervised LRM with only 29.3% annotated samples and 2.75 faster convergence.
Read the full abstract

All authors Guangcheng Zhu, Shenzhi Yang, Haobo Wang, Xing Zheng, Yingfan MA, Xuening Feng, Zhongqi Chen, Bowen Song, Weiqiang Wang, Gang Chen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SI

Modeling and Interpreting Teamwork Dynamics in Cancer Care Outcome Prediction

Cancer care requires a longitudinal approach in which treatments are planned and delivered over time according to the needs of each individual patient. While prior research has thoroughly explored how clinical and demographic factors, such as comorbidities and age, inform treatment planning, far less attention has been devoted to the delivery phase of care. Yet planning and delivery are both team-based processes that depend on coordinated efforts among multiple healthcare professionals (HCPs). As such, the human factors embedded in these collaborative practices are crucial to optimizing patient outcomes. Despite this importance, the existing literature on human factors in cancer care is limited, and very few studies have investigated how collaboration within care teams evolves over the course of treatment. To fill this gap, this work examine how HCPs' collaboration, captured through electronic health record (EHR) systems, affects cancer patient outcomes, with particular emphasis on teamwork dynamics. We represent EHR-mediated HCP interactions as networks and apply machine learning methods to identify predictive signals of patient survival embedded in these collaborative structures. We further interpret model predictions by pinpointing network characteristics and dynamic patterns associated with particular outcomes. We evaluate our model through robustness analyses to ensure that the findings are stable and not driven by stochastic variation in training. Additionally, our insights align with hypotheses proposed in the medical literature, and our results provide the empirical, data-driven evidence supporting these claims. Overall, our work contributes a practical workflow for leveraging digital traces of collaboration to evaluate and strengthen longitudinal team-based healthcare, offering actionable insights to guide data-informed interventions in healthcare delivery.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Episodic Memory Temporal Consistency for Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) frequently suffers from severe reward sparsity and exploration bottlenecks. While episodic memory mechanisms mitigate these issues by reusing high-return trajectories, they often trap agents in local optima due to unconstrained incentive distribution and semantic representation collapse. To address this, we propose Episodic Memory Temporal Consistency (EMTC), a framework that robustly constructs and selectively leverages historical experiences. EMTC introduces two synergistic components: (1) a Temporally Consistent Semantic Embedder that integrates contrastive learning with time-conditioned state reconstruction, preventing representation collapse and enabling precise memory retrieval; and (2) a Temporal Consistency Gating Mechanism that dynamically modulates episodic incentives based on temporal consistency error. This adaptive gate filters misleading signals from pseudo-successful trajectories, effectively mitigating Q-value overestimation. We provide theoretical guarantees, establishing a strict error bound that directly links the observable temporal consistency error to the underlying trajectory optimality and representation quality. Extensive evaluations on the SMAC and GRF benchmarks demonstrate that EMTC consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Notably, compared to the strongest episodic baseline, EMTC achieves absolute win-rate improvements of up to 24% in super-hard SMAC scenarios and an average improvement of 28% across GRF tasks.
Read the full abstract

All authors Zicheng Zhao, Yu Lan, Chengzhengxu Li, Zhaohan Zhang, Xiaoming Liu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Global Sketch-Based Watermarking for Diffusion Language Models

Watermarking methods for language models have been studied extensively in the autoregressive setting, where tokens are generated sequentially. These works largely focus on local-context schemes that perturb the next token's distribution as a function of its preceding tokens. In diffusion language models, distributions over many unresolved positions are jointly sampled, allowing additive statistics of the entire sequence to be tractable during generation. We propose a watermark for masked diffusion language models that controls a global, vector-valued sketch representation of the text. Compared to context-dependent watermarking, the sketch formulation decouples detection from the local contexts seen during generation, resulting in an order-agnostic statistic and a watermarking rule which does not manifest as a simple token bias. We analyze the distortion, soundness, and robustness properties of the method.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

LimiX-2M: Mitigating Low-Rank Collapse and Attention Bottlenecks in Tabular Foundation Models

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) increasingly rival tree ensembles, but their performance is often compute-inefficient: with standard affine scalar tokenization, each feature injects value variation through an essentially one-dimensional channel, and feature IDs/positional signals cannot increase within-feature value degrees of freedom, yielding weak early-layer value sensitivity and redundant hidden states. We present a unified tokenize-and-route framework for strong TFMs: RaBEL expands each scalar into compact localized RBF features (optionally exponent-gated) to improve conditioning and shallow-layer effective rank, while a reordered bidirectional block S->N->F aligns computation with the readout by aggregating cross-sample context before feature mixing and using attention pooling. Together, these changes yield LimiX-2M, a 2M-parameter model that outperforms larger TabPFN-v2 and TabICL baselines on widely used tabular benchmarks while reducing training and inference costs. These results highlight value-aware tokenization and readout-aligned routing as key levers for improving the accuracy–efficiency trade-off in TFMs. Model checkpoints and inference code are available at https://github.com/limix-ldm-ai/LimiX.
Read the full abstract

All authors Yuanrui Wang, Xingxuan Zhang, Han Yu, Mingchao Hao, Gang Ren, Hao Yuan, Li Mao, Yunjia Zhang, Chun Yuan, Peng Cui

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

AgentJet: A Distributed Swarm Training Framework for Agentic Reinforcement Learning

Training reinforcement learning (RL) policies for large language model (LLM) agents requires optimizing multi-turn trajectories that interact with external environments. Existing training frameworks struggle with runtime failures, single-model constraints, incompatible task environments, and redundant context. We present AgentJet, a distributed swarm training framework based on a decoupled multi-node architecture. AgentJet treats the server–client topology as configurable: swarm servers host trainable models and perform optimization on GPU clusters, while detachable swarm clients execute arbitrary agents and communicate through OpenAI-compatible APIs. Reconfiguring this topology supports heterogeneous multi-model RL, mixed-task training with isolated runtimes, fault-tolerant execution, and live code iteration through hot-swappable clients. AgentJet also introduces context tracking with timeline merging, reducing actor-update time by 6.25x on AppWorld. The same detachable-client design supports an automated research system that conducts long-horizon, multi-day RL studies on large-scale clusters with limited human intervention. AgentJet is open-source and compatible with agent systems that issue standard LLM inference requests.
Read the full abstract

All authors Qingxu Fu, Boyin Liu, Shuchang Tao, Zhaoyang Liu, Cheng Chen, Xuanfa Jin, Rong Zhu, Bolin Ding

Machine Learning

When Both Layers Learn: Training Dynamics of Representing Linear Models via ReLU Networks

In this paper, we study the gradient descent dynamics for jointly training both layers of a one-hidden-layer ReLU network to fit a linear target function. Concretely, we consider a realizable setting where inputs are drawn i.i.d. from a Gaussian distribution and labels follow a planted linear model. This stylized framework captures salient features of end-to-end training in inverse problems and certain auto-encoder models. Despite its apparent simplicity, the dynamics remain poorly understood, in part because the loss landscape contains multiple non-strict saddle points, making it unclear why gradient descent from random initialization reliably escapes bad stationary regions. We provide a detailed characterization of the optimization landscape and prove that gradient descent from a moderately small random initialization-simultaneously training both layers-converges to a global minimizer at a linear rate with order-wise optimal sample complexity. Our analysis tracks the trajectory through three phases: an alignment phase in which hidden weights progressively align with the planted direction while the output weights maintain the correct sign pattern; a growth phase in which the norms of both layers increase while preserving alignment; and a local refinement phase in which the aligned neurons rapidly converge to the planted direction, yielding fast local convergence. To rigorously show that GD avoids non-strict saddles, we develop trajectory-level control arguments for the end-to-end dynamics. In addition, we establish novel uniform concentration results that hold along the entire trajectory, and are essential for obtaining order-wise optimal sample complexity. We corroborate our theory with extensive experiments across a range of configurations.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

ChessMimic: Per-Rating Transformer Models for Human Move, Clock, and Outcome Prediction in Online Blitz Chess

We present ChessMimic, a system of three small encoder-only transformers - for move, thinking-time, and outcome prediction - conditioned on the position, recent move history, player rating, and clock state. We fit a separate instance of each model per 100-Elo rating band, trading parameter efficiency for sharper per-skill calibration. On a held-out month-wide slice of Lichess Rated Blitz games ChessMimic's human move prediction accuracy outperforms Maia-2 in every Elo band. Compared to Maia-3, our 9M parameter model's accuracy sits between Maia-3-5M and Maia-3-23M without the additional complexity of Geometric Attention Bias. In addition to the move matching model, we also train a game outcome model that conditions not only on the position, but also player ratings, time control, and remaining clock times. The outcome model achieves an AUC of 0.78 out of sample, beating Maia-2 as well as logistic regressions based on material, ratings, and clock time. Finally, we train a clock model that predicts human thinking times. The clock model provides a usable but non-SOTA per-ply think-time signal under ALLIE-style filters (Pearson r = 0.41, Spearman rho = 0.50, MAE 4.10 s, against ALLIE's reported r = 0.70), with the residual gap concentrated in per-position bucket sharpness rather than bucket-marginal calibration. A public demo is at 1e4.ai and we release code, per-band weights, and the C++ data-filter pipeline code in GitHub.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

ParetoPilot: Zero-Surrogate Offline Multi-Objective Optimization via Infer-Perturb-Guide Diffusion

Offline multi-objective optimization (Offline MOO) seeks Pareto-optimal designs from static datasets without additional environment interactions. Existing generative methods typically guide sampling with external surrogate or preference models, which adds training complexity and may provide unreliable guidance. We propose ParetoPilot, a plug-and-play method that guides designs to Pareto front at inference time using a pre-trained conditional diffusion model without any surrogate. ParetoPilot introduces an Infer-Perturb-Guide (IPG) engine within the reverse diffusion process. IPG first infers the individual conditional target for each sample in the batch by aligning its conditional and unconditional predictions. It then perturbs these targets collectively across the batch, balancing convergence toward the Pareto front and diversity among samples. Finally, the engine guides the generative trajectory toward the Pareto front by injecting these perturbed targets via standard Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG). Experiments on 51 tasks demonstrate that ParetoPilot achieves the best overall ranking among 16 methods and competitive hypervolume improvement.
Read the full abstract

All authors Ruiqing Sun, Sen Yang, Dawei Feng, Bo Ding, Yijie Wang, Huaimin Wang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

CyberGym-E2E: Scalable Real-World Benchmark for AI Agents' End-to-End Cybersecurity Capabilities

AI has the potential to transform cybersecurity by enabling systems that can autonomously detect, analyze, and remediate software vulnerabilities. However, existing cybersecurity evaluations of AI systems are limited in scale or scope, and fail to capture the end-to-end lifecycle of real-world software vulnerability discovery and remediation. To address this gap, we propose CyberGym-E2E, a large-scale and realistic end-to-end cybersecurity benchmark that comprehensively evaluates AI agents' abilities across the full lifecycle of vulnerability discovery, PoC generation, and patch generation. CyberGym-E2E is comprehensive and scalable, as we build an automated, agent-enhanced pipeline for transforming open-source vulnerability data into realistic evaluation environments. Currently, the benchmark consists of 920 real-world vulnerabilities across 139 different open-source projects.
Read the full abstract

All authors Tianneng Shi, Robin Rheem, Dongwei Jiang, Mona Wang, Francisco De La Riega, Zhun Wang, Jingzhi Jiang, Alexander Cheung, Sean Tai, Jonah Cha, Jianhong Tu, Gabriel Han, Chenguang Wang, Jingxuan He, Wenbo Guo, Dawn Song

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Radiomic Feature Selection Using Gradient Loss of Deep Neural Network for Lung Cancer Stage Detection

Radiomics enables extraction of quantitative imaging biomarkers from medical images and has become an important tool for computer-aided cancer diagnosis. However, radiomics datasets are typically high-dimensional with limited samples, making feature selection a critical step for building reliable predictive models. This study proposes a Gradient-Loss Recursive Feature Elimination (GL-RFE) framework that integrates gradient sensitivity analysis from a deep neural network to identify the most influential radiomic features for lung cancer stage detection. A total of 106 radiomic features were extracted from chest Computed Tomography (CT) scans using the PyRadiomics extension of the 3D Slicer platform. The proposed method evaluates feature importance by computing gradients of the network loss with respect to input features and recursively eliminates features with minimal contribution. The resulting top-15 radiomic features are used to train a deep neural network classifier for distinguishing early-stage and advanced-stage lung cancer. The proposed framework achieves strong classification performance, with accuracy of 90.22%, precision of 90.10%, recall of 90.24%, and F1-score of 90.16% on the test dataset. Visualization analyses, including correlation heat maps and distribution plots, further confirm reduced feature redundancy and improved class separability. Compared to conventional feature selection techniques, GL-RFE effectively captures nonlinear feature interactions and enhances model generalization. The presented protocol provides a reproducible and interpretable methodology for radiomics-based cancer stage detection and is particularly suitable for high-dimensional, small-sample biomedical datasets, with potential applications in other domains such as genomics and multimodal clinical analysis.
Read the full abstract

All authors Hina Shakir, Mohammad Mohatram, Javeed Hussain, Syed Rizwan Ali, Muhammad Irfan Memon

Machine Learning

On Out-of-sample Embedding in UMAP

Neighbor embedding algorithms reveal correlations in high-dimensional data by constructing an equivalent graph representation in a lower-dimensional space. An increasingly popular algorithm is Uniform Manifold Learning and Projection (UMAP), which uses algebraic topology to map distances between the two spaces. While it works well on many types of data sets, UMAP has trouble adding out-of-sample points to a pre-existing mapping. In particular, UMAP often places new points on the periphery of the found clusters, rather than in their interiors with their correlated neighbors. Here, we overcome this “repulsion effect” by optimizing pairwise interactions within the original k-nearest-neighbor graph. Moreover, we show that parameterizing UMAP obtains better embeddings than non-parametric algorithms, particularly as the data gets more complex (e.g., medical images). We also show that the repulsion effect is naturally mitigated when a parameterized UMAP is employed to embed the data. We characterize different UMAP approaches using trustworthiness, nearest neighbor classifiers, and by analyzing attractive and repulsive forces in the embeddings.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DC

D^2SD: Accelerating Speculative Decoding with Dual Diffusion Draft Models

Speculative decoding accelerates autoregressive large language model inference by drafting multiple tokens and verifying them in a single target-model forward pass. Recent diffusion-based drafters generate an entire block of tokens in parallel but usually commit to a single draft sequence per verification: once the first mismatch occurs, all subsequent draft tokens are discarded, resulting in a limited acceptance rate. Naively batching more draft candidate sequences only introduces a marginal improvement, as redundant or poorly placed branches increase the cost of drafting and verification without proportionally increasing the number of accepted tokens. We propose D^2SD, a dual diffusion draft speculative decoding framework that organizes candidates into a confidence-guided prefix tree, where the first diffusion drafter generates a block along with per-position confidence scores that are used to identify the most likely rejection boundary and select the top-K prefix ranges for recovery; the second variable-prefix diffusion drafter re-anchors at each selected prefix and proposes alternative continuations in one batched pass; the resulting shared-prefix candidates are jointly verified via cascade attention. Empirically, D^2SD shows clear improvements over both the underlying diffusion approach and strong autoregressive speculative decoding baselines.
Read the full abstract

All authors Liyuan Zhang, Jiarui Zhang, Jinwei Yao, Ran Yan, Yuchen Yang, Jiahao Zhang, Tongkai Yang, Yi Wu, Binhang Yuan

Machine Learning

RowNet: A Memory Transformer for Tabular Regression

Real estate valuation is a structured regression problem in which prices are governed by heterogeneous feature types, sparse regional effects, nonlinear interactions, and the practical logic of comparable properties. Standard multilayer perceptrons treat each row as an isolated vector and must learn locality, scale sensitivity, and categorical matching from supervision alone. Gradient-boosted decision trees provide strong tabular baselines, but their feature-centric splitting mechanism does not explicitly model the retrieval of similar historical observations. This paper presents RowNet, a retrieval-based neural architecture for real estate price-per-square-meter prediction. RowNet represents a query property through pairwise similarity features against a memory bank of labeled properties. A first retrieval layer estimates a coarse target from feature-only similarities. A second layer augments the memory comparison with target-consistency features and uses multiple learned attention heads to retrieve complementary comparable sets. A final mixture-of-experts module combines learned gating, residual correction, entropy regularization, and head-diversity regularization to produce the prediction.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.IV

Scaling Datasets for Multi-Sensor, Multi-Agent, and Multi-Domain Learning in Autonomous Systems

Existing datasets cannot support large-scale learning in multi-agent, multi-sensor, or multi-domain autonomy, where diversity and coordination are essential. We present a modular dataset generation pipeline that creates terabyte-scale, ground-truth-labeled data for ground, aerial, and infrastructure-based systems using the AVstack framework and CARLA simulator. Supporting single- and multi-agent configurations with flexible sensor suites, the pipeline enables controllable experimentation across challenging conditions. Representative perception and fusion studies show how generated data can support application-specific training and collaborative autonomy.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

LoopMoE: Unifying Iterative Computation with Mixture-of-Experts for Language Modeling

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) and looped architectures scale models along two orthogonal axes, namely parameter capacity and effective depth. However, mainstream looped architectures rely on dense backbones that couple parameter count with per-token FLOPs, which makes it impossible to isolate the effect of iterative computation under matched budgets. To this end, we present LoopMoE, a looped MoE language model that integrates sparse routing with iterative weight-shared computation through two designs. The first is IterAdaLN, which resolves weight-sharing symmetry via a modulation signal jointly conditioned on the iteration index and the per-token hidden state. The second is a capacity-balancing strategy that recovers the attention-to-FFN active parameter ratio of well-tuned non-looped references. Together, these designs enable the first strictly controlled, head-to-head evaluation of a looped MoE against a Vanilla MoE under identical total parameters, per-token FLOPs, and active sublayer ratios. Across nine downstream benchmarks, LoopMoE's average improvement over its matched vanilla MoE increases from over 1 point at the 3B scale to approximately 3 points at the 9B scale. These results provide initial evidence that the benefits of iterative sparse computation may strengthen with scale, positioning LoopMoE as a promising architecture for scalable looped language models.
Read the full abstract

All authors Wenkai Chen, Tianshu Li, Wenyong Huang, Yichun Yin, Lifeng Shang, Chengwei Qin

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Hyper-ICL: Attention Calibration with Hyperbolic Anchor Distillation for Multimodal In-Context Learning

Multimodal In-Context Learning (ICL) has emerged as a practical inference paradigm for Multimodal Large Language Models, where a small set of interleaved image-text In-Context Demonstrations (ICDs) conditions the model to solve new tasks. Despite its flexibility, multimodal ICL incurs high inference latency and suffers from instability due to sensitivity to demonstration formatting, ordering, and content. To address these limitations, we propose Hyper-ICL, a lightweight, training-based framework for demonstration-free multimodal ICL that reconstructs demonstration effects directly without requiring ICDs at inference time. Hyper-ICL learns a parameter-efficient low-rank logit-level adapter that calibrates attention distributions to better match demonstration-induced attention redistribution. To capture how demonstration influence varies across queries, we introduce a query-adaptive modulation mechanism that adaptively controls intervention strength at token level across layers and heads based on the current query. Finally, we propose a layer-wise hyperbolic anchor distillation loss that aligns intermediate student features to a demonstration-conditioned teacher via Lorentz geodesic distance. This loss encourages the student to reconstruct the demonstration-query relationships induced by ICDs. Extensive experiments across six different multimodal benchmarks (including VQAv2, OK-VQA, and COCO Caption) demonstrate that Hyper-ICL consistently improves accuracy and stability over vanilla ICL and existing state-of-the-art methods.
Read the full abstract