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Tuesday 26 May

Machine Learning

HEAL: Resilient and Self-* Hub-based Learning

Decentralized learning enhances privacy, scalability, and fault tolerance by distributing data and computation across nodes. A popular approach is Federated learning, which relies on a central aggregator, yet faces challenges such as server vulnerabilities, scalability issues, privacy risks and most importantly, the single point of failure. Alternatively Gossip Learning and Epidemic Learning offer fully decentralization through peer-to-peer exchanges of model updates, ensuring robustness and privacy, at the price of slower model convergence. In this work, we introduce a novel decentralized learning framework called HEAL. HEAL is the first cross-layer decentralized learning framework that exploits an optimized self-organizing and self-healing underlying P2P overlay combining the strengths of Federated Learning, Gossip and Epidemic Learning. Leveraging the recently proposed Elevator algorithm, HEAL promotes dynamically chosen nodes to act as aggregators. Through simulations, we demonstrate that HEAL has similar performances to that of Federated Learning in crash-free settings, while being fully decentralized and fault-tolerant. In crash and churn prone environments HEAL outperforms Gossip and Epidemic Learning.
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All authors Mohamed Amine Legheraba, Stefan Galkiewicz, Maria Gradinariu Potop-Butucaru, Sébastien Tixeuil

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Stop Suppressing the Tail: Causal Inference for Extreme Events

Estimating how an outcome responds to a continuous treatment (the Average Dose-Response Function, or ADRF) is a core causal-inference primitive. However, when outcomes possess heavy tails, standard robust double machine learning (DML) deliberately suppresses these extremes to stabilize the bulk average. In high-stakes settings, such as financial returns or climate losses, this omitted 1-in-1000 extreme event is the actual target quantity. Furthermore, current methods that read the tail from a model's residuals suffer from circular dependence, causing tail shape inferences to shift drastically based solely on whether the core estimator is switched between Huber and Welsch. The research proposes an ADRF estimator that emits a structured tail-shape output alongside the standard point estimate. Its tail diagnostic (PDHTE+JK) evaluates the per-treatment tail shape from the outcome centered by a pilot median, successfully breaking the circular dependence and rendering the diagnostic invariant to the choice of core method. The output encompasses four treatment-conditional quantities: tail shape $\hat{\xi}(t)$, deep-tail return levels $\hat{Q}_{\alpha}(t)$, conditional shortfalls $\hat{S}_{\alpha}(t)$, the recovered mean ADRF, and an explicit refusal mechanism that declines extrapolation when extreme-value modeling is unsupported by the data. Compared to kernel-weighted quantile regression (QR), the proposed estimator reduces deep-tail ($\alpha=0.001$) return-level MAE by 11% and conditional-shortfall MAE by 25.5% across a heavy-tailed panel. It also achieves a 20-29% MAE reduction in sample-scarce regimes ($n\le2000$). On freMTPL2 motor-insurance claims, it successfully triggered an explicit extrapolation refusal on the log-claim scale, which neither QR nor loss-only DML can produce.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Calibrated Inference for the Conditional Average Treatment Effect in the Few-Placebo Regime via Gaussian Processes

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by a calibrated uncertainty interval. We study the few-placebo regime, in which one treatment arm is much smaller than the other, as arises in unequal-allocation trials and small-holdout $A/B$ tests. The standard estimator in this setting is the X-Learner, and a natural way to obtain credible intervals is to make its second stage Bayesian. We show that these intervals under-cover: they contain the true effect less often than their nominal level. We trace this to a structural cause the X-Learner's regression target inherits the bias of a nuisance model fitted to the small arm, so the posterior is centered away from the true effect and we find that the standard remedy, regressing an orthogonal doubly-robust score, is also unreliable here, since the regime's limited overlap leaves the estimator either highly variable or, once stabilized, biased once more. Both consequences reflect a pattern that extends beyond causal inference: a separately estimated variance is attached to a point estimate of a hard-to-learn quantity, and the point estimate's bias is not captured by that variance. We propose GP-CATE, which models each arm's outcome surface with a Gaussian process, so the scarce arm's uncertainty enters the posterior directly rather than as an unmodelled bias. Across synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks, GP-CATE attains calibrated coverage where the estimators we compare against including Causal Forest and BART do not, at the cost of intervals that are appropriately wide when the data are uninformative.
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Machine Learning

Detect by Yourself: Self-Designing Agentic Workflows for Few-Shot Graph Anomaly Detection

Graph anomaly detection aims to identify anomaly nodes in attributed graphs and plays an important role in real-world applications. However, existing graph anomaly detection methods still face two key challenges: 1) fixed pipelines, which restrict their adaptability across different graph tasks under limited supervision; 2) weak evidence, which prevents them from explicitly incorporating contextual and structural anomaly signals into the detection process. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, self-designing agentic workflows for few-shot graph anomaly detection (SignGAD). Specifically, we propose a novel paradigm that reformulates graph anomaly detection task from training a fixed anomaly detector to designing task-conditioned detection workflows. By constructing detection workflows, SignGAD selects suitable graph encodings and detector designs to exploit task-specific anomaly evidence. Meanwhile, we introduce a guarded final refit strategy to refine the selected workflow by calibrating refit acceptance, enhancing reliability under limited supervision. Extensive experiments conducted on several real-world datasets demonstrate that SignGAD achieves strong performance against state-of-the-art methods, highlighting its effectiveness on graph anomaly detection tasks.
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All authors Tairan Huang, Qiang Chen, Yili Wang, Yueyue Ma, Changlong He, Xiu Su, Yi Chen

Machine Learning

Architecture-driven Shift: towards a lightweight selector for capturing the trends of logit shift

Continual Learning (CL) is a practical paradigm to utilize power of deep pre-trained neural networks, but which pre-trained model has a better ability to balance “Plasticity-Stability", deserving to be chosen? The logit shift serves as a natural proxy because it represents the logit shift in CL scenarios. However, obtaining the logit shift requires huge computational cost, which hinders large-scale model selection. Existing theoretical analyses fail to offer an efficient alternative because of the assumption of uniform hidden layer widths, which ignores the structural heterogeneity (variable width and depth) of real-world architectures. This raises a critical question: what theoretically relationship can be identified between heterogeneous architecture and logit shift on prior tasks (that the model has been trained on)? To answer the question, we decouple logit shift into architecture dependency and data dependency to establish our framework, which reveals that the combination of two dependency, defined as Architecture-driven Shift (ADS), that can capture the logit shift tendency well computable with few data samples. Specifically, for a well-optimized model on prior tasks, higher ADS is associated with a larger logit shift after training on the current task, which derived based on three mechanistic components: (1) spectral norm scaling of weight matrix gradients with layer width, (2) the optimization path length of the new task, and (3) the asymptotic task conflict in wide networks. Extensive empirical results across more than 175 diverse architectures demonstrate a strong monotonic correlation (the weakest Spearman's $r_s=0.731$) between ADS and logit shift. Practically, we demonstrate that ADS can serve as a lightweight proxy of the expected calibration error, which is a widely used metric for reliable CL model selection, on three datasets across six scenarios.
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Machine Learning

Comparative Analysis of Liquid Neural Networks and LSTM for Sequential Pattern Recognition: Robustness, Efficiency, and Clinical Utility

Traditional Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units operate on discrete time steps, often failing to capture the fluid temporal dynamics of real-world physical processes. Liquid Neural Networks (LNNs), specifically Closed-form Continuous-time (CfC) networks, address this by modeling the hidden state evolution as a continuous differential equation. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive benchmarking study across four distinct sequential modalities: neuromorphic event-based data (N-MNIST), stroke-based drawing (QuickDraw), visual handwriting (IAM), and physiological time-series (PhysioNet Sepsis-3). Furthermore, we perform a rigorous stress test using temporal dropout to evaluate model robustness against missing data. Our findings reveal that LNNs consistently provide superior parameter efficiency and significantly higher robustness in natively temporal domains and clinical environments where data sparsity is prevalent. This extended preprint provides additional background on related datasets and the LNN theoretical lineage, supplemented with a detailed appendix documenting our full implementation and experimental settings.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.MA

AgensFlow: A Coordination-Policy Substrate for Multi-Agent Systems

Multi-agent systems built on large language models (LLMs) require many coordination choices that are difficult to fix a priori: which skill protocol to invoke, which agent role should perform a subtask, which model to bind to each role, how roles should interact, when to use retrieval or verification, and when to omit a step entirely. These choices interact with task regime and operational constraints, so static pipelines and one-off model comparisons provide only a limited view of the design space. This paper introduces AgensFlow, an open-source framework that treats multi-agent coordination as an online policy-learning problem under partial observability. The framework makes coordination decisions observable and learnable from repeated trajectories, rather than treating skill, role, model, topology, and evaluation choices as fixed pipeline design. AgensFlow is evaluated on two corpora: distributed-systems incident tasks and security-advisory tasks. The evaluation shows three main results: learned routing reaches a higher-quality operating point than a fixed pipeline baseline on coordination-heavy classes; skip:X isolates topology compression as a meaningful part of the substrate; and warm-started policy graphs can reduce exploration cost while preserving plateau quality. Overall, the results support that learned, auditable routing can improve coordination-heavy multi-agent workflows over static wiring.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

MUSE-Autoskill: Self-Evolving Agents via Skill Creation, Memory, Management, and Evaluation

Large language model (LLM) agents rely on reusable skills to solve complex tasks, but existing skill creation approaches often treat skills as isolated, static artifacts, limiting reusability, reliability, and long-term improvement. We propose MUSE-Autoskill Agent (Memory-Utilizing Skill Evolution), a skill-centric agent framework that creates, reuses, and refines skills under a unified lifecycle: creation, memory, management, evaluation, and refinement. MUSE creates skills on demand, stores them across tasks, retrieves them through a skill catalog, and accumulates per-skill experience for later reuse and adaptation. Across the main reported settings on SkillsBench and SkillLearnBench, MUSE-Autoskill outperforms Hermes, Codex, and Claude Code. On SkillsBench, its self-created skills surpass human-authored skills on the successfully covered subset (85.24% vs. 81.17%), showing that lifecycle-managed skills can distill agent experience into highly effective reusable assets; MUSE-created skills also transfer to Hermes more effectively than Codex- or Claude-created skills, reaching 51.90% accuracy under transfer. These results highlight the importance of treating skills as long-lived, experience-aware, and testable assets.
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All authors Huawei Lin, Peng Li, Jie Song, Fuxin Jiang, Tieying Zhang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

LocateAnything: Fast and High-Quality Vision-Language Grounding with Parallel Box Decoding

Vision-language models (VLMs) commonly formulate visual grounding and detection as a coordinate-token generation problem, serializing each 2D box into multiple 1D tokens that are learned and decoded largely independently. This token-by-token decoding mismatches the coupled structure of box geometry and creates a practical inference bottleneck due to strictly sequential generation. We introduce LocateAnything, a unified generative grounding and detection framework based on Parallel Box Decoding (PBD). By decoding geometric elements such as bounding boxes and points as atomic units in a single step, LocateAnything preserves intra-box geometric coherence and unlocks substantial parallelism. We show that PBD improves both decoding throughput and localization accuracy. We further develop a scalable data engine and curate LocateAnything-Data, a large-scale dataset with more than 138 million training samples, substantially increasing data diversity for high-precision localization. Extensive evaluations show that LocateAnything advances the speed-accuracy frontier, achieving significantly higher decoding throughput while improving high-IoU localization quality across diverse benchmarks. The results highlight the complementary benefits of Parallel Box Decoding and large-scale training data in enabling efficient and precise unified visual grounding and detection.
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All authors Shihao Wang, Shilong Liu, Yuanguo Kuang, Xinyu Wei, Yangzhou Liu, Zhiqi Li, Yunze Man, Guo Chen, Andrew Tao, Guilin Liu, Jan Kautz, Lei Zhang, Zhiding Yu

Machine Learning

MobileMoE: Scaling On-Device Mixture of Experts

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has become the de facto architecture for hundred-billion-parameter language models, yet its advantages at sub-billion scales for on-device deployment remain largely unexplored. To close this gap, we present MobileMoE, a family of on-device MoE language models with sub-billion active parameters (0.3-0.9B active and 1.3-5.3B total) that establish a new Pareto frontier for on-device LLMs. We first formulate an on-device MoE scaling law that jointly optimizes MoE architecture under mobile memory and compute constraints, identifying an on-device sweet spot - moderate sparsity with fine-grained and shared experts - that is simultaneously memory and compute-optimal. Building on the derived architectures, we train MobileMoE with a four-stage recipe covering pre-training, mid-training, instruction fine-tuning, and quantization-aware training, all on open-source datasets. Across 14 benchmarks, MobileMoE matches or exceeds leading on-device dense LLMs with 2-4$\times$ fewer inference FLOPs, and matches or surpasses the state-of-the-art MoE OLMoE-1B-7B with up to 60% fewer parameters. To bridge the last mile to mobile deployment, we provide the first efficient MoE inference on commodity smartphones with comprehensive on-device profiling. At comparable INT4 weight memory, MobileMoE-S delivers $1.8$-$3.8\times$ faster prefill and $2.2$-$3.4\times$ faster decode than the dense baseline MobileLLM-Pro.
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All authors Yanbei Chen, Hanxian Huang, Ernie Chang, Jacob Szwejbka, Digant Desai, Zechun Liu, Vikas Chandra, Raghuraman Krishnamoorthi

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Alignment Tampering: How Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback Is Exploited to Optimize Misaligned Biases

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is the standard method to align Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences. In this work, we introduce alignment tampering, a potential vulnerability where the LLM undergoing alignment influences the preference dataset, causing RLHF to amplify undesired behaviors. This arises from core limitations of RLHF: (1) preference datasets are constructed from the LLM's own outputs, allowing it to influence them, and (2) pairwise comparisons only indicate which response is better, not why. These limitations can be exploited to cause alignment tampering. For example, if an LLM generates biased responses with higher quality, annotators will prefer them based on quality. However, preference labels do not distinguish quality from bias, and the reward model inherits this limitation. Optimizing such rewards through reinforcement learning or best-of-N sampling can amplify misaligned biases. Our experiments demonstrate amplification across diverse biases: from keyword bias to propaganda (e.g., sexism), brand promotion, and instrumental goal-seeking. Mitigation remains challenging, as existing techniques for robust RLHF fail to fully resolve alignment tampering without sacrificing response quality. These findings reveal structural vulnerabilities of current RLHF and emphasize the need to prevent this vulnerability. Project page: https://alignment-tampering.github.io/
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Machine Learning

Teach the Way It Thinks: Guiding LLM Post-training Data Engineering with Sparse Autoencoders

Data engineering for large language model (LLM) reinforcement learning (RL) decides which samples to train on, when to present them, and which to batch together. Existing methods mostly rely on external feedback, such as pass rates or difficulty labels, which observes only the outcome on each sample. We argue that model internals offer richer and more model-intrinsic feedback that can guide all three decisions. We propose SAERL which organizes RL training data in the feature space of Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs), a mechanistic interpretability tool that decomposes model internals into sparse, interpretable features. SAE features let us view the model as a set of functional regions, each formed by features that related samples activate together. For each sample, its SAE activations indicate which regions it engages, and its gradients projected onto SAE features indicate how training on it would change these regions. Guided by this view, SAERL keeps samples with strong and non-redundant gradient signals, trains each functional region from easy to hard, and trains one functional region at a time, drawing each batch from a single activation cluster with moderate cross-cluster mixing. The resulting curriculum is constructed once with small models and transfers to larger ones. Experiments on mathematical reasoning show consistent gains across model scales and RL algorithms. For instance, on Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, SAERL improves the average accuracy of GRPO by 3.1% and reaches the target accuracy with 42% fewer training steps. Further analyses reveal that ordering and batching are complementary. These results demonstrate that model internals are a powerful and practical foundation for post-training data engineering.
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All authors Yi Jing, Zao Dai, Jinwu Hu, Zijun Yao, Lei Hou, Juanzi Li, Xiaozhi Wang

Machine Learning

From Scores to Gibbs Correctors: Accelerating Uniform-Rate Discrete Diffusion Models

Discrete diffusion models have achieved strong empirical performance in text and other symbolic domains, but, especially for uniform-rate models, they often require many steps to generate a single sample. Existing acceleration methods either rely on training additional quantities or suffer from slow mixing. In this work, we propose a novel Gibbs-based corrector for discrete diffusion models, termed Gibbs-Accelerated Discrete Diffusion (GADD). GADD leverages the structure of the concrete score function to construct Gibbs posterior likelihoods directly, without requiring any additional training beyond standard score estimation. We show that GADD achieves an overall sampling complexity of $\mathcal{O}(\mathrm{polylog} (\varepsilon^{-1}))$, yielding the first such rate for diffusion-based samplers for uniform-rate discrete diffusion models. We also conduct numerical experiments demonstrating the practical advantages of GADD across synthetic data, zero-shot text sampling, and zero-shot conditional music generation. These results corroborate the theory and show that GADD consistently improves sample quality and wall-clock efficiency over standard baselines, including vanilla Euler methods and CTMC correctors. Beyond this, our theoretical analysis introduces a novel framework for analyzing predictor-corrector methods in discrete diffusion models, which may be of independent interest. Unlike existing approaches that rely on the Girsanov change-of-measure technique, our method is based on an induction argument that tracks error propagation across predictor iterations while accounting for inaccuracies in the corrector updates.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Towards Controllable Image Generation through Representation-Conditioned Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for high-quality image generation and editing, but guiding these models to produce specific outputs remains a challenge. Conventional approaches rely on conditioning mechanisms, such as text prompts or semantic maps, which require extensively annotated datasets. In this preliminary work, we explore diffusion models conditioned on representations from a pre-trained self-supervised model. The self-conditioning mechanism not only improves the quality of unconditional image generation, but also provides a representation space that can be used to control the generation. We explore this conditioning space by identifying directions of variations, and demonstrate promising properties in terms of smoothness and disentanglement.
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Machine Learning

Probabilistic Smoothing with Ratio-Monotone Transforms for Global Optimization

Probabilistic smoothing is a standard tool for global optimization, but existing methods rely on Gaussian kernels and specific transforms, often resulting in strong hyperparameter sensitivity and limited robustness. We propose a general smoothing framework that combines flexible symmetric unimodal kernels with monotonic ratio-based transformations. Under mild conditions, we show that the smoothed objective preserves the global maximizer and that all stationary points concentrate near the true optimum for sufficiently large amplification, without requiring a decreasing smoothing schedule. We further provide explicit complexity bounds for stochastic gradient ascent and show that a leave-one-out baseline provably reduces variance. Experiments on high-dimensional benchmarks and black-box adversarial attacks demonstrate improved robustness and competitive performance.
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All authors Kukyoung Jang, Taehyun Cho, Junrui Zhang, Ping Xu, Kyungjae Lee

Machine Learning

Greening AI Inference with Accuracy and Latency-aware User Incentives

The widespread use of AI services has raised concerns for its environmental sustainability, towards which recent studies have identified carbon emissions of AI inference as the major contributor. This paper introduces a framework for designing AI inference incentives based on the users' valuation for inference quality and latency, together with their environmental consciousness, while accounting for the tradeoff between carbon emissions and the two QoE parameters. Our approach can accommodate different tradeoffs, that depend on the size and complexity of the AI models and the allocation of resources to serve inference requests. The incentives can be offered through a practical two-tier service subscription that offers users a discount in exchange for reduced carbon emissions. The discounted service option gives the AI provider the flexibility to serve some percentage of inference requests at a lower quality and higher latency during periods of high carbon intensity.
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All authors Vasilios A. Siris, Adamantia Stamou, George D. Stamoulis, Konstantinos Varsos, Ramin Khalili

Machine Learning

Normal Guidance is what Attention Needs

We consider training classifiers for 3D medical images using only one binary label for the entire volume rather than a label for each 2D slice. In such weakly supervised settings, can we learn accurate classifiers for slice-level predictions? Attention-based multiple instance learning (MIL) can produce an attention score for every slice. Yet recent work demonstrates that a simple center-focused baseline that ignores image content can outperform attention-based and transformer-based MIL at slice-level classification of 3D brain scans. We show this baseline also outperforms existing MIL at slice-level classification of thoracic and abdominal CT scans. Motivated by this baseline, we propose Normal Guidance, a regularization technique that encourages the learned attention distribution to follow a bell-shaped curve. Across three medical imaging datasets totaling over 4 million 2D slices, we show our Normal Guidance enables attention-based and transformer-based MIL methods to deliver significantly better slice-level localization than the state-of-the-art while remaining competitive at whole-scan classification.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Risk Averse Alert Prioritization for IDS Using Subnormal Gaussian Fuzzy Models

Modern intrusion detection systems generate thousands of alerts daily, but alert fatigue severely limits security operations effectiveness due to too many false positives or low-impact events. We address this by proposing a principled framework for alert prioritization based on subnormal Gaussian fuzzy numbers, explicitly modeling three sources of uncertainty: threat severity, detection confidence, and organizational risk attitude. Each alert is represented as a fuzzy number with the core indicating severity, spread indicating uncertainty, and height reflecting detection reliability. We apply ranking indices to prioritize alerts, allowing organizations to tune security posture through a risk-attitude parameter. Experimental validation on CIC-IDS2017 and NSL-KDD demonstrates greater robustness than baselines under detector degradation (0.9963 vs 0.8215 NDCGrel@100), with distinct differentiation in mid-confidence alerts and near-parity with baselines under robust detectors. The framework is theoretically grounded, computationally efficient, provides interpretable reasoning, and remains robust across detector families and miscalibration scenarios.
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Machine Learning

BASIS: Batchwise Advantage Estimation from Single-Rollout Information Sharing for LLM Reasoning

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has become a standard recipe for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. Existing algorithms face a tradeoff between computational efficiency and sample efficiency in value estimation and policy learning. We introduce BASIS, a critic-free post-training algorithm designed to address this tradeoff. At each online training step, BASIS samples only one rollout per prompt, but leverages rich information across prompts in the entire batch to improve value function estimation. Our experiments demonstrate that BASIS reduces MSE in value function estimation by 69% compared to REINFORCE++, a representative single-rollout baseline, and achieves lower MSE with one rollout than group mean estimators with 8 rollouts. This improvement in value estimation translates to better policy optimization: using substantially less training time, BASIS achieves performance close to multi-rollout GRPO-type baselines and often outperforms single-rollout REINFORCE-type baselines.
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All authors Shijin Gong, Erhan Xu, Kai Ye, Giulia Livieri, Francesco Quinzan, Chengchun Shi

Machine Learning

Detectability without Interference: Efficient Canary Design for Privacy Auditing in One Run

Privacy auditing aims to empirically assess privacy leakage in machine learning models using membership inference attacks (MIAs), and to derive lower bounds on differential privacy (DP) parameters. Standard privacy auditing inserts a sensitive sample (a canary) into many ($\gg 100$) randomized training runs, requiring the auditor to detect whether it was included in each run. In one-run auditing, many canaries are included in a single training run, avoiding the high computational cost of multi-run approaches. However, recent theory shows that canaries can interfere with one another, reducing per-canary MIA scores and thereby weakening the audit power. We propose IBIS, a framework that optimizes canaries to maximize their own score while minimizing their impact on others. IBIS combines influence-based greedy initialization with bilevel optimization, introducing a novel regularization term that encourages canaries to be orthogonal in embedding space as a proxy for reducing interference. We propose an efficient bilevel algorithm that incrementally updates a single model at each canary update, avoiding the need to retrain the model from scratch after every update. Experiments show that IBIS offers a better performance-cost trade-off than existing canary crafting approaches, improving MIA metrics while reducing computational cost by up to two orders of magnitude.
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All authors Mathieu Dagréou, Valentin Dorseuil, Mohammad Yaghini, Nicolas Papernot, Aurélien Bellet

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

It's Not Always Sycophancy: Measuring LLM Conformity as a Function of Epistemic Uncertainty

Large language models (LLMs) are known to abandon their initial stance to conform to user pushback. While prior research largely attributes this behavior to sycophancy learned during reinforcement learning from human feedback, we hypothesize that conformity is also driven by a model's epistemic uncertainty at inference time. In this paper, we introduce MUSE, a two-stage evaluation framework to disentangle the mechanisms driving LLM conformity. Specifically, MUSE maps a model's epistemic uncertainty in responding to a query against its likelihood to yield to user pushback in a subsequent turn. We demonstrate that the mechanisms driving conformity extend beyond sycophancy alone. Specifically, we characterize two distinct factors that jointly drive conformity: sycophantic conformity, where a model aligns with user pushback even with absolute certainty in its initial response, and uncertainty-driven conformity, where a model's likelihood for conformity increases alongside its uncertainty. Furthermore, we conduct ablation studies to demonstrate that both sycophantic conformity and uncertainty-driven conformity grow with 1) the LLM's perceived expertise of the user and 2) the plausibility of the user's suggestions. More broadly, MUSE informs more targeted intervention strategies by distinguishing alignment-induced sycophancy and training-corpora-driven uncertainty.
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All authors Kevin H. Guo, Chao Yan, Avinash Baidya, Katherine Brown, Xiang Gao, Juming Xiong, Zhijun Yin, Bradley A. Malin

Machine Learning

Falcon-X: A Time Series Foundation Model for Heterogeneous Multivariate Modeling

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves excellent forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.
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All authors Yiding Liu, Yifan Hu, Hongjie Xia, Peiyuan Liu, Hongzhou Chen, Xilin Dai, Zewei Dong, Jiang-Ming Yang

Machine Learning

Supervised Learning Objectives for High-Dimensional Treatment Effects

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains. However, classical causal estimators tend to assume that all possible interventions are observed, which is infeasible when interventions vary widely, for instance, in the space of all text strings. We adapt a well-known approach of recasting causal inference as a learning problem to address such settings, assuming realizability of the learned function and no unobserved confounding. We show that causal error decomposes into moment-balancing errors of increasing order and exploit structure of the conditional outcome in the confounders to design objectives that directly improve causal estimation. We also show how to project the effect of a high-dimensional treatment onto coarser attributes, which allows a single model to answer several causal questions without additional attribute-specific training. We empirically evaluate our estimators in settings with high-dimensional continuous, discrete, and text treatments. Our experiments demonstrate generalization to held-out treatments, benefits of balancing higher-order moments when required, and projected causal estimates that are competitive with attribute-specific ones.
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All authors Nikita Dhawan, Arnav Paruthi, Andrew Kim, Lovedeep Gondara, Jekaterina Novikova, Chris J. Maddison

Machine Learning

Transfer Learning using 66 Diseases for Disease Forecasting Applications

Disease forecasting models typically rely on a single data stream, making models brittle when histories are short or noisy. Recent top-performing models have shown that synthesizing multiple reporting systems for the same disease improves performance. Other recent work takes this idea a step further, using transfer learning to train a forecasting model for one disease using data from a different disease. We expand upon each of these approaches greatly, training machine learning models on data that span 66 infectious diseases and several data streams. We investigate the value of incorporating different data streams for forecasting 20 different disease data streams. We find that incorporating other data streams improves forecasting in the vast majority (84.9%) of time series and model structures considered. However, our work highlights that the quality of the added data matters, where adding data extremely different from the target data stream can sometimes degrade forecast performance. A major contribution of this work is in compiling a publicly-available database of data for use by the infectious disease forecasting community.
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All authors Lauren J Beesley, Alexander C Murph, Dave Osthus, Lauren A Castro

Machine Learning

Kan Extension Transformers: A Categorical Unification of Attention, Diffusion, and Predict-Detach Self-Conditioning

We propose Kan Extension Transformers (KETs) as a categorical design language for a diverse group of Transformer implementations. A layer can be viewed generally as a weighted structured extension operator: attention uses token neighborhoods, geometric mixing uses sparse incidences, and KET uses simplicial sources. This operator is an actual enriched left Kan extension only when the source values are functorial, the weights are representable hom-objects (or the specified profunctor action), and aggregation realizes the corresponding coend; otherwise “Kan-style” denotes an interpretation rather than an identity theorem. Predict-detach blocks gradients through a predictive carrier and avoids transporting teacher-forced hidden states, but detach alone does not make a noncausal update strictly autoregressive: every carrier consumed at target $t$ must also be measurable from the prefix available at $t$. We evaluate 12 implementations on Penn Treebank, WikiText-2, and WikiText-103 across strict-causal and self-conditioned regimes, using widths $d=64,256$ and depths $L=2,8,16$ across the reported studies. Quadratic KET is strongest among the compared strict-causal architectures on WikiText-2 and WikiText-103; the largest cross-regime gains arise from additional self-conditioning information, not neighborhood design alone.
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Machine Learning

LUCoS: Latent Unsupervised Context Selection for Tabular Foundation Models

Selecting which instances to label is a key challenge in low-label tabular learning. For recent Tabular Foundation Models such as TabPFN, context selection directly determines predictive performance. Supervised oracle experiments show that carefully chosen labeled context sets can strongly outperform random selection under the same labeling budget. However, the cold-start setting, where instances must be selected before any labels are available, has received little attention in the TFM literature. This problem is fundamentally geometric. In vision and language, foundation models induce embedding spaces where simple geometric selection methods are effective. In contrast, tabular instance selection has so far been performed predominantly in the original tabular space, which lacks a natural metric; heterogeneous types, mixed scales, and nonlinear interactions make raw-space distances unreliable for context construction, and original-space selection falls below random on the majority of datasets as the budget grows. We propose LUCoS (Latent Unsupervised Context Selection), which replaces raw-feature geometry with the latent geometry induced by embeddings from an unsupervised Prior-Fitted Network (PFN) and selects representative medoids as context. Evaluated on 67 OpenML-CC18 datasets across six low-label budgets, LUCoS ranks first under mean AUC, ACC, and F1, with conclusions stable across metrics and dataset-level robustness checks. A gain decomposition reveals a simple mechanism: at the smallest budgets, the main benefit comes from enforcing coverage; as the budget increases, the decisive factor becomes the representation space in which coverage is measured. LUCoS mitigates failures of original feature space selection, showing that reliable unsupervised context selection depends less on selector sophistication than on defining representativeness in a meaningful representation geometry.
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All authors Oroel Ipas, Guillermo Gomez-Trenado, Rocío Romero-Zaliz, Isaac Triguero

Machine Learning

Symbolic Regression via Latent Iterative Refinement

Symbolic regression (SR) seeks closed-form mathematical expressions that fit observed data. Neural SR methods amortize the search by training an encoder to map observations directly to expressions in a single pass, but this amortized inference leaves a residual amortization gap between its one-shot prediction and the true posterior. We propose Latent Equation Embedding (LEE), a framework that closes this gap through iterative amortized inference in a functionally grounded latent space. LEE learns a shared latent space Z equipped with three components: an encoder f_theta that jointly embeds symbolic tokens and numerical observations into a single latent vector z; an expression decoder g_expr that reconstructs formulas from z; and an evaluation decoder g_eval that predicts function values from z, explicitly grounding the latent space in functional behavior. At inference, LEE performs iterative refinement by re-encoding decoded expressions jointly with observations, progressively improving the latent estimate. LEE uses the encoder itself as a learned inference optimizer: each re-encoding step implicitly computes the mismatch between the candidate and the data. Because g_eval is differentiable in z, we additionally interleave continuous gradient descent with discrete re-encoding, yielding a hybrid iterative and gradient refinement procedure. On SRBench across three noise levels, against 19 baselines spanning genetic programming, symbolic-neural hybrids, and pre-trained Transformers, LEE produces expressions 2–10x simpler than the strongest accuracy-oriented baselines, including Operon, GP-GOMEA, TPSR, RAG-SR, and GenSR, with complexity 8–11 versus 20–90. These results advance the low-complexity region of the accuracy-complexity Pareto frontier and show graceful degradation as noise increases.
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Machine Learning

Explainable Comparison of Feature-Based and Deep Learning Models for TROPOMI Methane Plume Screening

Continuous and global detection of large methane emissions is a crucial step for global warming mitigation. Satellite observations, such as from S5P/TROPOMI, combined with plume detection algorithms, can play a key role in this effort. However, not all TROPOMI plume detections that look like methane emission plumes are the result of actual emissions. A significant part of the plume-like features in the data are retrieval artifacts. Such artifacts could be the result of variations in elevation or albedo gradients, high concentrations of aerosols, coastal lines, water bodies, etc. Previous work approached the problem of plume-artifact classification by means of a Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVC), trained on an extensive set of observation-based scalar features designed by domain experts. However, such an approach limits the information scope received by the algorithm to what is deemed to be important by the experts, breaks the spatial relationship between pixels, and loses information during the process of statistical aggregation. In this study, we compare feature-based (SVC, Random Forest, XGBoost) and image-based (ResNet-18, ResNet-34) models for methane plume-artifact classification under balanced and imbalanced evaluation settings. To interpret the results, we apply SHAP-based explainability to both model families. Our findings provide practical guidance for model selection in operational methane-screening workflows such as the CAMS Methane Hotspot Explorer.
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All authors Solomiia Kurchaba, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Berend J. Schuit, Ilse Aben

Machine Learning

Nonlinear Data Integration via Kernel Methods for Data Collaboration Analysis

Collaborative analysis of decentralized confidential datasets is important, but direct sharing of original datasets is often restricted by privacy and institutional constraints. Data collaboration (DC) analysis transforms each dataset into privacy-preserving intermediate representations via party-specific obfuscation functions and integrates them into common collaboration representations using an anchor dataset. However, many existing DC analysis methods rely on linear transformations for data obfuscation and integration, which may increase reconstruction risk. Although nonlinear dimensionality reduction can mitigate this risk, conventional linear integration methods cannot accurately align intermediate representations produced by nonlinear transformations. Moreover, existing integration methods mainly minimize discrepancies among parties and do not explicitly incorporate geometric or target-variable information useful for downstream analysis. To overcome these limitations, we first formulate linear target-normalized integration (LTI) as a linear integration method and then kernelize it to obtain kernel-based target-normalized integration (KTI). KTI admits a globally optimal solution via kernel ridge regression and an eigenvalue problem. We also introduce graph regularization and a centering constraint so that the target representation can capture geometric and target-variable information useful for downstream analysis. Experiments on image classification tasks demonstrate that KTI improves classification accuracy over existing linear integration methods under nonlinear dimensionality reduction, with further gains from target-variable-aware graph regularization and centering. The results also show that dimensionality reduction choices substantially affect both classification accuracy and reconstruction risk.
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All authors Yamato Suetake, Yuta Kawakami, Shunnosuke Ikeda, Yuichi Takano

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Not All Tokens Matter Equally: Dynamic In-context Vector Distillation with Decisive-Token Supervision for Long-form Medical Report Generation

Distilling demonstration effects into hidden-space interventions offers a lightweight alternative to full finetuning. However, existing multimodal variants are mostly evaluated on short-form tasks, where outputs end after a few tokens. Extending these methods to long-form generation exposes a fundamental yet underexamined limitation: token-level distillation implicitly treats all output tokens as equally informative, but long-form outputs are dominated by high-frequency template and grammatical tokens, while the tokens that actually determine output quality are sparsely distributed. In medical report generation (MRG), two such decisive tokens stand out: pathology-related tokens that determine diagnostic content, and the end-of-sequence (EOS) event that determines termination. Both receive insufficient supervision under uniform cross-entropy, and autoregressive decoding further compounds the problem by drifting away from teacher-forced trajectories. We propose DIVE, a frozen-backbone distillation framework that addresses long-form report generation through two complementary mechanisms matched to these failures. Decisive-token supervision restores supervision balance by upweighting the cross-entropy contribution of pathology-related tokens and the EOS event, ensuring that content fidelity and termination are learned during training rather than imposed at decoding time. State-conditioned dynamic steering replaces fixed open-loop residuals with hidden-state-dependent adapters, allowing the injected signal to adapt as decoding drifts. Experiments on MIMIC-CXR and CheXpert Plus with two medical VLM backbones show that DIVE consistently ranks among the strongest methods across lexical and clinical-proxy metrics. Our method achieves the best BLEU-4, ROUGE-L, and RadGraph F1 in all dataset–backbone settings, while remaining competitive on coarse label-level CheXbert F1.
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All authors Ning Wu, Rui Liu, Xinkun Lin, Weixing Chen, Jinxi Xiang, Tao Wei, Lina Yao, Mingjie Li