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Friday 22 May

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Optimal Non-Asymptotic Edgeworth Expansions for Multivariate Neural Network Outputs

Finite-width fully connected neural networks with Gaussian-initialized weights deviate from their infinite-width Gaussian limit, exhibiting non-vanishing higher-order cumulants. We approximate these deviations, for a neural network evaluated in a finite number of inputs, using multidimensional Edgeworth expansions of arbitrary order $4m-1$, with $m\in\mathbb{N}$. Assuming that the corresponding Gaussian limit has an invertible covariance matrix and that the activation function is polynomially bounded, we establish a bound of order $n^{-m}$ on the total variation distance between the law of the true network output and its Edgeworth approximation, with matching lower bounds. As an application, we quantify the error in Bayesian posterior distributions when the prior is replaced by its Edgeworth expansion. Our results are more general and also apply to sequences of conditionally Gaussian vectors converging to a Gaussian vector with invertible covariance.
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Machine Learning

Not All Transitions Matter: Evidence from PPO

Training a reinforcement learning agent on-policy means collecting fresh experience at every update, and that experience comes with a hidden problem. Each state in a rollout is the direct output of the previous one, causally chained together by the agent's own actions. Because of this, consecutive transitions are never truly independent. They carry overlapping information, and the gradient signal the network receives ends up far more repetitive than the batch size suggests. The same directions get reinforced over and over, the value network struggles to keep up as the policy shifts, and training becomes quietly unstable in ways that reward curves alone rarely reveal. This paper asks whether that redundancy can simply be removed. We show that randomly dropping a fixed fraction of transitions from the rollout, at the right stage so the reward signal stays intact, is enough to break the repetitive gradient structure and stabilize training. The change is minimal: one sampling step, no new components, no modification to the core algorithm, and it works with any PPO implementation. Across five environments of increasing difficulty, CartPole-v1, Acrobot-v1, LunarLander-v2, HalfCheetah-v5, and Hopper-v5, the method matches vanilla PPO on reward while producing more consistent training dynamics across KL divergence, policy entropy, and value estimates. Dropping 25% of transitions turns out to be the sweet spot: enough to disrupt the redundancy, not enough to thin the batch.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.ao-ph

Seeing Inside the Storm: Improving Nowcasting by Integrating Meteorological Drivers

Most nowcasting systems, built on radar reflectivity, focus on current precipitation, ignoring the atmospheric precursors – such as low-level convergence, turbulent eddies, and latent heating – that offer a fleeting window to foresee storm birth. We introduce MeteoLogist, a physics-inspired radar intelligence framework that models the full life cycle of convection – from its precursors to organized storm evolution. However, exploiting these precursors is non-trivial: they originate from multiple meteorological drivers – thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical – that evolve asynchronously (C1) and remain spatially fragmented (C2). To this end, MeteoLogist designs three tightly integrated components. The Physics-Tailored Encoders process radar echoes according to their intrinsic physical scales and semantics, forming thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical streams that capture distinct dynamical regimes. The Temporal-Phase Aligner addresses C1 by leveraging causal temporal attention to capture when and how different drivers interact and activate. The Cross-Field Spatial Aggregator addresses C2 through cross-regional fusion, aligning weak and scattered precursors across neighboring cells to expose upstream triggers and enforce spatial coherence. Evaluated on 3D-NEXRAD (2020–2022, US-wide), MeteoLogist boosts high-impact detection (CSI40) by +9.7% over strong baselines, and achieves a remarkable 37.67% gain during the storm-developing stage – demonstrating true foresight in sensing storms before they appear. The code can be found in the supplementary material.
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All authors Minghui Qiu, Jun Chen, Lin Chen, Weifeng Chen, Shuxin Zhong, Zhidan Liu, Yu Zhang, Kaishun Wu

Machine Learning

Generative Representation Learning on Hyper-relational Knowledge Graphs via Masked Discrete Diffusion

Hyper-relational knowledge graphs (HKGs) effectively represent complex facts. While inferring new knowledge in HKGs is a critical problem, current methods cast it as a simple link prediction, assuming that nearly all entities and relations within a fact are known, leaving only a single blank to be filled. However, this restricted assumption may not hold in real-world scenarios in which multiple, or even all, constituent components of a fact may be missing simultaneously. To bridge this gap, we introduce a task called fact generation: generating a valid hyper-relational fact from an arbitrarily masked query, i.e., completing a partially observed fact or generating a fact from scratch. We propose KREPE, the first generative representation learning method for HKGs that learns to model the probability distributions of missing components conditioned on the local fact components and global structure of HKGs via a masked discrete diffusion. KREPE models both the intra-fact dependencies by contextual message passing and inter-fact correlations by aggregating stochastically sampled contexts. KREPE seamlessly unifies link prediction and fact generation within a single training framework, achieving state-of-the-art performance on standard HKG link prediction benchmarks and outperforming LLM-based baselines in generating novel and correct facts.
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Machine Learning

Federated Learning over Human-Body Communication for On-Body Edge Intelligence: A Survey, Taxonomy, and BODYFED-HBC Scheduling Vignette

Human-body communication (HBC) is a promising physical substrate for wearable body-area networks because it can localize communication around the body and reduce the burden of conventional radio links. Federated learning (FL) is a promising learning substrate because it can reduce raw-data centralization for physiological and behavioral sensing. Yet these two literatures remain weakly connected: FL for wearables usually abstracts the communication layer, whereas HBC research usually abstracts learning and model-update traffic. This article surveys the intersection of HBC, wireless body-area networks, wearable FL, Internet-of-Bodies privacy, and edge-intelligence optimization. We propose a taxonomy that distinguishes intra-body, body-hub, cross-user, and clinical-cloud FL deployments, and we identify the open problem of body-channel-aware FL: learning protocols whose client selection, update compression, and aggregation are controlled by posture-dependent HBC links, residual energy, sensor memory, and privacy risk. To make the research agenda concrete, we introduce BODYFED-HBC as a reference architecture and provide an optimization formulation and scheduling algorithm. We further specify a reproducible simulation vignette that combines public wearable datasets with empirical body-coupled-communication signal-loss models. The article concludes with open datasets, evaluation metrics, limitations, and research directions for computer scientists working above the hardware layer.
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Machine Learning

Spectral Probe-Circuits: A Three-Step Recipe for Identifying Attention-Head Circuits in Pretrained Transformers

We present a three-step recipe for identifying attention-head circuits in pretrained transformers. A per-head spectral signal – the time-integrated participation ratio of each head's attention output – ranks heads doing sustained content-dependent computation without labels or attribution gradients. A task-pattern screen filters this general indicator into a task-specific candidate circuit, and group ablation against a matched-random control completes the causal claim. We validate across an 8x parameter range (51M to 1B-active / 7B-total), two architecture families (dense, mixture-of-experts), and four pretraining pipelines. The recipe ports: a 2-6 head induction circuit is causally necessary in every model tested, with a 94-100% drop in synthetic-induction top-1 after ablation. The spectral signal is predictive without supervision: on six independent seeds of a 51M-parameter probe model, the same computation identifies the seed-specific circuit on each seed. The fraction of heads doing identifiable specialized computation is conserved at 17-19% across the Pythia family (124M to 410M), while specific induction circuits stay 3-11 heads – sublinear in total head count. This paper is the methodology anchor of a three-paper program; companion papers extend the recipe to developmental trajectories during pretraining and to composed-task circuits where pattern selectivity decouples from task-causal structure.
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Machine Learning

Signs Beat Floats: Low-Rank Double-Binary Adaptation for On-Device Fine-Tuning

On-device adaptation of large language models commonly keeps a quantized base model frozen while training and deploying a small, task-specific LoRA adapter. In the unmerged adapter-mode setting, however, the adapter is more than a compact storage module; it introduces an additional dense floating-point branch, maintains a trainable state for local updates, and acts as a unit of communication and hot-swapping.We introduce LoRDBA, a LoRA-compatible adapter that replaces both low-rank factors with binary sign carriers while representing magnitudes through lightweight, channel-wise scales, converting the dense adapter branch into two sign-accumulation matrix multiplications interleaved with channel-wise scaling. A finite-sample analysis shows that reconstruction quality is governed by the residual-to-magnitude ratio of the original LoRA factors. In adapter-mode experiments, LoRDBA outperforms low-bit baselines at matched model sizes while matching fp16 LoRA quality in selected regimes. The unmerged adapter incurs at most 8% prefill latency overhead at matched rank r=16 despite an over 10x reduction in adapter footprint, with moderate training memory overhead of approximately 1.6x that of fp16 LoRA.
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All authors Yoshihiko Fujisawa, Yuma Ichikawa, Yudai Fujimoto, Akira Sakai, Katsuki Fujisawa

Machine Learning

Feature Lottery? A Bifurcation Theory of Concept Emergence

Neural networks acquire structured representations at specific moments during training, yet identifying these transitions typically relies on retrospective, label-dependent metrics. We introduce a bifurcation theory of representation dynamics to detect these moments in real time. Analyzing a passive GMM probe attached to the evolving encoder, we show the onset of structure corresponds to a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation driven by the loss Hessian. The system exhibits a theoretically predictable zero-crossing ($\beta_c$) that, compared to the network's current state ($\beta$), yields a dynamic ratio $\beta(t)/\beta_c(t)$: a universal, label-free phase coordinate for representation dynamics, computable entirely from hidden states. We empirically validate four distinct transition regimes predicted by this coordinate across diverse settings: SAEs on language models (Pythia), SSL (CIFAR), and grokking (modular arithmetic). Crucially, under finite dissipation, macroscopic symmetry-breaking can lag the initial zero-crossing by orders of magnitude, which providing a rigorous dynamical account of the delayed escape observed in grokking. Microscopically, the bifurcation creates a shared unstable subspace, forcing collective symmetry breaking. We term this the "feature lottery" in SAE training: a feature's terminal interpretability becomes predictable remarkably early. By only 5% of training, early atom purity robustly predicts final convergence purity, with top-decile early atoms achieving over 12x the baseline purity at convergence. Beyond explaining concept emergence, $\beta/\beta_c$ provides a practical early-warning indicator for training health, detecting the onset of usable structure, the crystallization of feature identity, and representational collapse epochs before downstream metrics react.
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Machine Learning

Cascade-KDE: Robust Time-Series Restoration under Out-of-Distribution Impulse Corruptions

Real-world time-series data in industrial sensing, healthcare, and energy systems is often corrupted by a mixture of Gaussian noise and occasional large-magnitude impulse outliers. For tasks that depend on local shape, such as ECG morphology analysis and battery degradation monitoring, the main requirement is not only low reconstruction error but also preservation of derivative peaks and task-critical features. We propose Cascade-KDE, a training-free restoration framework for corrupted time series. The method first estimates a two-dimensional temporal-amplitude density, then applies a Density-Truncated Robust Expectation to limit the influence of distant abnormal points, and finally refines the sequence through an exponential cascade with adaptive stopping. This design aims to improve robustness under out-of-distribution impulse corruptions while keeping the restored trajectory close to the original local structure. Across several benchmark datasets, the proposed method shows consistent gains over classical filters and representative learning-based baselines on curve fidelity, derivative preservation, downstream classification, and runtime efficiency. These results suggest that bounded density-based restoration is a practical option for feature-preserving preprocessing in noisy time-series pipelines.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Breaking the Chains of Probability: Neutrosophic Logic as a New Framework for Epistemic Uncertainty in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) are predominantly governed by probabilistic frameworks in which the sum of outcome probabilities is constrained to unity. This architectural limitation, often imposed by Softmax layers, leads to a collapse of uncertainty that makes it difficult to differentiate between epistemic uncertainty, paradox, and vagueness. We present an empirical investigation of the application of Neutrosophic Logic, a framework that treats Truth (T), Indeterminacy (I), and Falsity (F) as three independent dimensions, to model epistemic states in LLMs. We conducted experiments on a family of four OpenAI GPT models across five linguistic phenomena: logical paradoxes, epistemic ignorance, vagueness, ethical contradictions, and future contingencies, under three prompting strategies: neutrosophic, probabilistic, and entropy-derived. Our findings reveal that the neutrosophic approach, by allowing T+I+F > 1, a state we term hyper-truth, provides a richer representation of a model's internal state. In 35% of evaluations, hyper-truth emerged spontaneously, predominantly under ethical contradiction and logical paradox. We demonstrate that this approach preserves truth values in fuzzy contexts and offers a robust method for identifying and quantifying internal model conflict. We conclude that the integration of neutrosophic evaluation layers is a critical step toward more transparent, reliable, and ethically aware AI systems.
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Machine Learning

Truthful Online Preference Aggregation for LLM Fine-Tuning in Mobile Crowdsourcing

To better serve users' demands in mobile applications (e.g., navigation), mobile crowdsourcing platforms can iteratively align large language model (LLM)-generated content (e.g., AI-generated traffic condition predictions) with human feedback collected from crowdsourcing workers (e.g., mobile users). However, workers may strategically misreport their online preference feedback to maximize their influence or payment. Existing pipelines in mobile crowdsourcing (e.g., EM-based weight estimation) fail to identify the most accurate worker in this online setting, resulting in a linear regret $\mathcal{O}(T)$ over $T$ time slots. In this paper, we study truthful online preference aggregation for LLM fine-tuning in mobile crowdsourcing. We formulate a new dynamic Bayesian game to model the multi-agent online learning process between the platform and strategic mobile workers. We propose a novel online weighted aggregation mechanism that dynamically adjusts each worker's weight in the preference aggregation according to their feedback accuracy. We prove that our mechanism ensures truthful feedback from strategic workers and achieves a sublinear regret $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$ over $T$ time slots. We further extend our mechanism to a challenging scenario with limited worker feedback per time slot, still guaranteeing a sublinear regret $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$. Experiments on LLM fine-tuning with real-world datasets further demonstrate significant performance gains of our mechanisms over benchmark schemes.
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Machine Learning

LLMs as Noisy Channels: A Shannon Perspective on Model Capacity and Scaling Laws

Existing scaling laws for Large Language Models (LLMs), predominantly monotonic power laws, fail to explain emerging non-monotonic phenomena such as catastrophic overtraining and quantization-induced degradation, where performance deteriorates despite increased compute. We propose the Shannon Scaling Law, a unified theoretical framework that models LLM training as information transmission over a noisy channel, grounded in the Shannon-Hartley theorem. By mapping model parameters to channel bandwidth and training tokens to signal power, our formulation explicitly captures the interaction between learning signal and intrinsic noise. This perspective reveals a fundamental Shannon capacity for LLMs: scaling model size or data without preserving a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) inevitably amplifies noise, inducing a transition from monotonic improvement to U-shaped performance degradation. We validate our theory through experiments on Pythia and OLMo2 under perturbations, including Gaussian noise, quantization and supervised fine-tuning on math, QA and code tasks. The Shannon Scaling Law consistently outperforms classical scaling laws and recent perturbation-aware laws, achieving strong $R^2$ scores and accurately capturing loss basins missed by prior approaches. It also extrapolates: fitted on $\leq$6.9B Pythia models with $\leq$180B tokens, it predicts the unseen 12B model up to 307B tokens at pooled $R^2{=}0.847$, while monotonic baselines collapse.
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All authors Xu Ouyang, Deyi Liu, Yuhang Cai, Jing Liu, Yuan Yang, Chen Zheng, Thomas Hartvigsen, Yiyuan Ma

Machine Learning

Complete-muE: Optimal Hyperparameter Transfer and Scaling for MoE Models

We propose Complete-muE, a framework which targets hyperparameter transfer across dense FFN and any Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) setups in transformer blocks. Existing tools such as $\mu$P (requires fixed architectue) or SDE (requires fixed per-step token count) cannot directly solve the hyperparameter transfer problem in MoE setups because Dense to MoE transfer or MoE total experts scaling changes both architecture and tokens per expert. Complete-muE solves this challenge with a two-bridge system: Bridge~I maps between dense FFN and Dense MoE by active-width $\mu$P with a normalized router scale. Bridge~II maps between Dense MoE and sparse MoE by activated-expert scaling, where the first-order SDE LR/WD correction cancels while a bounded residual $\sigma_0$ shift remains. The resulting transfer rule, which we term as Complete muE, covers changes in activated experts, total capacity, granularity, and shared/group-balanced hybrids for MoE models as well as network width/depth, batch size, and duration changes for general Transformer models. Extensive language model and diffusion model pretraining experiments confirm that complete-muE yields relatively stable hyperparameter optima across model architectures and parameter counts – with only minor drift consistent with the non-strict SDE behavior of Bridge~II. In practice this drift is small enough that hyperparameters tuned on a single dense reference transfer near-optimally to all MoE configurations – tune dense once, transfer to all is the practical recipe at the core of Complete-muE. This enables MoE models to achieve accelerated convergence speedup over dense models when scaling model capacity without costly hyperparameter search.
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All authors Hongwu Peng, Ohiremen Dibua, Yuanjun Xiong, Yifan Gong, Jin Huang, Lantao Yu, Mamshad nayeem Rizve, Kevin Duarte, Siddharth Iyer, Jianming Zhang, Yan Kang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Good Token Hunting: A Hitchhiker's Guide to Token Selection for Visual Geometry Transformers

Visual geometry transformers have become powerful architectures for multi-view 3D reconstruction, enabling joint prediction of multiple 3D attributes in a feed-forward manner. However, their computational cost grows quadratically with the input sequence length due to the global attention layers inside these models. This limits both their scalability and efficiency. In this work, we address this challenge with a simple yet general strategy: restricting the number of key/value tokens that each query interacts with during global attention. To achieve effective token selection, we introduce a two-stage framework. First, an inter-frame selection step operates at the frame level to identify frames that should be preserved. Second, an intra-frame selection step further discards more redundant tokens within the selected frames. Our analysis highlights the advantage of a diversity-based strategy for inter-frame selection, which ensures broad coverage of the scene. For intra-frame selection, we show that layer-aware sparsification is necessary, with the selection process guided by the entropy of the global attention pattern. Our approach offers a superior speed-accuracy trade-off compared to existing solutions. Extensive experiments show that it accelerates visual geometry transformers by over 85% for scenes with 500 images while maintaining, or even improving, baseline performance, which hints that how our token selection strategy can play a crucial role in future applications of visual geometry transformers. Our project website is available at https://zsh2000.github.io/good-token-hunting.github.io.
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All authors Shuhong Zheng, Michael Oechsle, Erik Sandström, Marie-Julie Rakotosaona, Federico Tombari, Igor Gilitschenski

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DB

CHRONOS: Temporally-Aware Multi-Agent Coordination for Evolving Data Marketplaces

Temporal knowledge-graph data marketplaces face three coupled failures in static designs: stale hybrid index shortcuts reduce recall as edges evolve, stationary Shapley pricing misattributes value after distribution shifts, and uncoordinated agents over-consume a shared differential-privacy budget. We present CHRONOS, a three-layer architecture providing a unified treatment of these challenges with explicit public and private separation. Layer one applies neural-ODE temporal decay to shortcut edges, providing a per-query expected recall-loss bound of Big-O of Pq lambda delta t, with a monotone-envelope guarantee reducing bound looseness to 1.8 to 3.2 times observed loss. Layer two conditions Shapley valuation on detected changepoints and provides finite-sample error guarantees under noise. Layer three uses EXP3-IX to achieve Big-O of the square root of T log T regret while enforcing epsilon and delta differential privacy via moments accounting. CHRONOS releases a privatized affinity matrix per epoch using the Gaussian mechanism; all retrieval and ranking are post-processing, incurring no extra privacy cost. We provide multi-epoch settlement, scalability analysis for 500 sellers, and comparisons against accelerated baselines. Across four benchmarks, CHRONOS shows 0.937 recall at ten, 2.74 queries per second, 161 ms latency, and total epsilon of 4.25 at delta of 10 to the power of negative 6 under zCDP composition. These results indicate a competitive operating point. A limitation is that at this privacy level, released valuations remain noise-dominated; utility derives primarily from public index routing and adaptive scheduling driven by low-sensitivity statistics.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

On the Stability of Spherical Hellinger-Kantorovich Flows and Their Implications for Differential Privacy

Gradient-flow sampling interprets a Gibbs distribution as the minimizer of an energy functional over probability measures and generates dynamics converging to this target. Under spherical Hellinger-Kantorovich (SHK) geometry, the flow couples transport and reaction and coincides with birth-death Langevin dynamics. In this work, we develop a perturbation theory for SHK gradient flows. For two potentials $V$ and $V^{\prime}$, we compare the associated flows from a common initialization and quantify how potential discrepancies propagate over time. A uniform perturbation bound yields dimension-free, pointwise control of the log-likelihood ratio and Rényi divergence, while additional structure allows us to derive bounds for the KL divergence as well. We apply these results to approximate sampling for the exponential mechanism in differential privacy. The likelihood-ratio control provides explicit time-dependent Pure-DP guarantees for SHK-based samplers, while the KL bound yields Approximate-DP certificates via hockey-stick divergence. We also derive a utility bound separating intrinsic exponential-mechanism suboptimality from finite-time sampling error.
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Machine Learning

Training-Free Looped Transformers

We introduce training-free looped transformers, in which a lightweight inference-time wrapper loops a contiguous mid-stack block of layers of a frozen checkpoint without additional fine-tuning, continued training, or architectural changes. Unlike prior looped transformer methods that train with the looped structure end-to-end, we retrofit recurrence onto pretrained models at test time. We show that naive block reapplication usually degrades performance, highlighting the importance of the loop application strategy. Motivated by viewing a pre-norm transformer block as a forward Euler step on an ODE, we instead treat looping as a refinement of the same approximation, replacing one large update with smaller damped sub-steps. Across seven dense, sparse MoE, and MLA+MoE model families, our method improves Qwen3-4B-Instruct by +2.64 pp on MMLU-Pro, Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct by +1.14 pp on CommonsenseQA, and Moonlight-16B-A3B-Instruct by +1.20 pp on OpenBookQA.
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All authors Lizhang Chen, Jonathan Li, Chen Liang, Ni Lao, Qiang Liu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Move on Muon : A Hamiltonian probability gradient flow perspective of Muon optimizer

We develop a gradient flow on the space of probability measures defined on matrix-valued parameters induced by regularized Muon, an analytically smoothed version of the idealized Muon optimizer. The key observation is that the regularized orthogonalization map is the gradient of a smooth Fenchel-dual smoothing of the nuclear norm. This identifies the (regularized) Muon update as a mirror/prox step in the update variable, with momentum acting as the dual coordinate. We use this structure to lift Muon from a single matrix parameter to finite-particle probability objectives of the form $J(\rho)=R\left(\int F d \rho\right)$, a setting motivated by mean-field descriptions of neural-network training, and derive the inertial continuous-time limit. Using this structure, we derive the finite-particle continuous-time limit under the inertial scaling of step size and momentum, and then pass to a phase-space mean-field equation over probability laws on parameter-momentum pairs. The resulting flow can be shown to be a damped Hamiltonian probability dynamics whose kinetic energy is induced by the regularized Muon mirror potential. We prove an exact Hamiltonian dissipation identity, showing that the Hamiltonian energy decreases monotonically. While the target objective itself need not be monotone along the inertial Muon dynamics, under additional gradient-dominance, bounded-momentum, and curvature/alignment assumptions, we obtain continuous and discrete-time exponential convergence rates for the objective gap. We also study the well-posedness of the mean-field limit equation and establish propagation of chaos guarantees for the interacting particle system. Finally, we extend the formulation to Hilbert-valued feature maps on product matrix spaces, yielding a blockwise Muon probability flow applicable to smooth transformer mixture-of-experts models.
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Machine Learning

Leveraging Foundation Models for Causal Generative Modeling

Causal generative modeling is essential for developing reliable and transparent AI systems capable of counterfactual reasoning. While existing approaches focus on integrating causal constraints during the training of generative models, they often lack a unified framework to leverage the zero-shot reasoning capabilities of pretrained foundation models. We introduce FM-CGM, a modular framework for end-to-end visual causal reasoning using pretrained foundation models. FM-CGM formalizes the causal pipeline through three core components: a concept extractor, a concept manipulator, and a counterfactual generator. By leveraging a large reasoning model for causal inference and a text-to-image diffusion model for generation, our approach enables zero-shot causal discovery, intervention, and counterfactual generation. We then develop Causal Semantic Guidance (CSG), a cross-attention-based mechanism that ensures semantic interventions propagate to descendant concepts while preserving invariant regions. We empirically show that our approach can identify plausible causal structures and is suitable for faithful counterfactual image generation.
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Machine Learning

Strong Teacher Not Needed? On Distillation in LLM Pretraining

Knowledge distillation generally assumes a strong-to-weak relationship where stronger teachers yield better students. In this work, we examine this assumption about distillation in large language model pretraining. By varying architecture sizes and training token budgets, we create strong-to-weak, same-level, and weak-to-strong teacher-student relationships, and study distillation's effectiveness under each. We find that the teacher need not be strong: with proper mixing of the language modeling and knowledge distillation losses, even small and undertrained teachers improve larger students. At the same time, a stronger teacher is not always better: pushing the teacher further, through more parameters or more training tokens, can saturate or even reverse the distillation gains. We further observe that distillation improves generalization (out-of-distribution and downstream performance) more readily than in-domain fitting. Together, these results challenge the common belief that distillation pretraining always requires a strong teacher.
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Machine Learning

Entrywise Error Bounds for Spectral Ranking with Semi-Random Adversaries

Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model estimation is a well-established strategy to rank a collection of items given a dataset of pairwise comparisons. Although the theoretical performance of BTL estimation methods, such as spectral and maximum likelihood estimation, is well studied in the regime of uniformly sampled graphs, generalizing such results to a wider class of random graphs has proved challenging. In this work, we investigate the entry-wise error of spectral algorithms against a semi-random adversary that can arbitrarily boost the sampling probabilities of certain edges. We find that the performance of the unweighted spectral method is heavily dependent on the spectral properties of the generated graph. Furthermore, we show that asymptotic performance approaching that of uniformly sampled graphs can be recovered by appropriately reweighting the observed edges to counteract the adversary and restore the spectral gap. Finally, we provide numerical simulations that support our theoretical findings.
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Machine Learning

It's the humans, not the data: Geopolitical bias in LLMs originates in post-training, amplified by the language of the prompt

It has generally been assumed that geopolitical bias in language models originates from the training data used during the pre-training phase. We tested seven open-weight LLM pairs consisting of the base model (pre-training only) and the chat model (pre-training and post-training) from seven labs on a paired-scenario forced-choice probe over 28 country pairs in English, French, and Chinese, and found that geopolitical bias originates in post-training rather than in pre-training. Across seven AI labs, six showed shifts in the direction associated with the country or region of the model developer after post-training. This shift is strongest in Alibaba's Qwen 2.5: while the base is neutral on China-favourability (-0.15 log-odds, p=0.15), the post-trained chat variant is at +2.91 (p<10^-4), an 18x shift in odds. We also observe shifts in biases toward other countries across all models. Additionally, the magnitude of this shift depends on the language used to prompt the model: the French-made Mistral becomes pro-France only under French prompting (FR-EN shift +1.91, p<10^-4). These findings suggest that geopolitical preferences in language models are not simply inherited from large-scale internet data but are actively shaped during post-training, highlighting the need for greater transparency, auditing, and oversight of alignment processes that influence how models represent nations, cultures, and political perspectives.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Hierarchical Concept Geometry in Language Models Emerges from Word Co-occurrence

We propose a distributional theory of how hypernymy – the “is-a” relation between general and specific concepts – is encoded geometrically in language representations. Starting from the empirically verified assumption that words closer on the WordNet hypernym graph co-occur more often, we characterize theoretically the spectrum of the resulting embedding Gram matrix of word2vec embeddings. Under mild positivity and decay conditions on the co-occurrence kernel, we prove that the leading eigenvectors first separate broad taxonomic branches and then progressively finer sub-branches, producing a hierarchical splitting geometry with a coarse-to-fine spectral organization that mirrors the tree. We confirm these predictions in word2vec embeddings across many sampled WordNet subtrees, and show that the same signature extends strikingly well to Gemma 2B unembeddings. Our results indicate that hierarchical concept geometry in LLMs need not reflect a hierarchy-specific functional mechanism, but emerges from the spectral structure of pairwise word statistics.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SY

Advanced AI Service Provisioning in O-RAN through LLM Engine Integration

The Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) architecture allows AI to be embedded directly into the RAN through modular xApps and rApps, yet creating these applications collecting data, training models, writing code, and deploying them safely remains slow and largely manual. Large Language Models (LLMs) offer strong reasoning and code-generation capabilities but are unsuited for the fast, deterministic inference required in real-time RAN control. We present a proof-of-concept Dual-Brain architecture that combines both strengths: an LLM-based orchestrator translates operator intents into data-collection policies and deployment code, while an automated ML engine, NeuralSmith, trains lightweight classifiers on demand via an API. We describe the architecture and provisioning workflow, share practical insights from a containerized O-RAN 5G~SA testbed, and discuss open research directions.
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All authors Seyed Bagher Hashemi Natanzi, Pranshav Gajjar, Bo Tang, Vijay K. Shah

Machine Learning

Debiased Negative Mining Improves Out-of-distribution Detection with Pre-trained Vision-Language Models

Aiming at identifying unexpected inputs from unknown classes, out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has emerged as a pivotal approach to enhancing the reliability of machine learning models. This paper focuses on the burgeoning paradigm of post-hoc OOD detection with pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs), where a popular pipeline is to detect OOD inputs by examining their affinities between ID labels and negative labels, i.e., those semantically different from ID labels. Due to the unavailability of target OOD labels, existing works predominantly rely on heuristic rules to mine negative labels from unlabeled wild corpus data. Despite the empirical success, we argue that the power of VLM-based OOD detection has yet to be fully unleashed since the notorious false negative problem is far from addressed in the literature. With this motivation, we are interested in addressing the challenge of mining true negative labels for OOD scoring. To this end, we develop a theoretical framework for correcting the sampling bias of negatives labels by indirectly approximating the distribution of negative labels. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that the debiased negative mining can be naturally converted into Monte-Carlo sampling based on ID labels and the unlabeled wild corpus data. Extensive experiments empirically manifest that our method establishes a new state-of-the-art in a variety of OOD detection setups. Code is publicly available at \href{https://github.com/60pen9/Debiased-Negative-Mining-Improves-OOD-Detection-with-Pre-trained-VLMs}{\textcolor{red}{here}}.
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All authors Bo Peng, Jie Lu, Guangquan Zhang, Zhen Fang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.ao-ph

The physics of AI weather models

Could it be that AI weather models are solving physical equations, although they may not be the equations used by conventional NWP models? We compute correlations of forecast skill and Centered Kernel Alignment, providing evidence that different AI weather models represent the atmosphere in similar ways, despite differences in architecture and capacity. We argue that the architecture and training of the AI models constrains the form of the physical laws that they might simulate. In particular, we propose that the models implement a particle description of the atmosphere, where the latent variables at each mesh point correspond to the position of a particle in the high dimensional latent space. We hypothesize that the movement of the particles follows a gradient flow in the latent space towards a minimum of a learned free energy functional. Analysis of the GraphCast and Aurora models show that they make changes on large spatial scales in the early processor layers and move to smaller scale with increasing layer depth, consistent with the gradient flow hypothesis.
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All authors George Craig, Tobias Selz, Matthias Beylich, Kirsten I. Tempest

Machine Learning

LLM-driven design of physics-constrained constitutive models: two agents are better than one

Developing constitutive models that capture how materials deform under load traditionally requires years of specialized expertise in continuum mechanics, machine learning, and scientific programming. Large language models (LLMs) have recently been shown to lower this barrier by generating constitutive models on demand, but existing single-agent pipelines lack systematic checks that the resulting models respect fundamental physical laws. To close this gap, we introduce the first multi-agent LLM-driven approach for constitutive model generation: a Creator agent proposes a model tailored to the data, while an Inspector agent critically audits each proposal against nine physical constraints and returns it for refinement whenever a violation is detected. We demonstrate this concept with constitutive artificial neural networks (CANNs) and benchmark it on brain tissue and rubber as isotropic materials, and on porcine skin tissue as a transversely isotropic material with a preferred fiber direction, using two different LLM backbones (Claude Opus 4.7 and Kimi K2.5). Whether a generated model satisfies the physical constraints is assessed numerically, by probing each constraint across a broad sample of deformation states, rotations, and perturbation directions. Adding the Inspector raises the share of exported models that pass all these checks from 90% to 95% for Opus and from 47% to 60% for Kimi. In addition, the generated models are on par with or even surpass expert-designed models in accuracy, extrapolate reliably beyond the training data, and generalize remarkably well to unseen loading paths. Separating generation from inspection thus turns LLM-driven constitutive modeling into a substantially more trustworthy process. The paradigm is deliberately technique-agnostic...
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All authors Marius Tacke, Matthias Busch, Kian Abdolazizi, Jonas Eichinger, Kevin Linka, Roland Aydin, Christian Cyron

Machine Learning

SeedER: Seed-Expand-Retrieve for Efficient Knowledge Graph Retrieval

Knowledge graphs (KGs) offer a rich representation for relational knowledge, but their irregular structure makes retrieval challenging: ego-graph expansion grows rapidly, and dense embedding methods struggle with multi-hop compositional queries. Several approaches use LLM agents to explore the KG, analyze candidate nodes, and decide where to explore next. While expressive, these approaches can incur substantial computational and memory costs. On the other hand, we show theoretically that dense embeddings precomputed for graph nodes, even with augmented structure and neighborhood-aware features, can require embedding dimensions comparable to the size of the graph to answer families of knowledge graph queries. This limitation can be overcome with query-adaptive embeddings under certain conditions, and there are graph neural network (GNN) variants that can do so. However, processing the whole graph with a GNN can also incur substantial memory and computational costs, and it requires dense ground-truth labels indicating whether each node answers the query. Straightforward $k$-hop selection around anchor nodes can also be problematic: small $k$ limits the nodes we can see, and even with small $k$ values such as three and four, the $k$-hop subgraph can grow substantially. In this work, we devise a new approach using Graph Transformers and reinforcement learning that is much less demanding in memory and computation, can run on a CPU at inference time as a first-stage retriever, and requires feedback on only a small number of nodes at a time during training. We show that this method is competitive with methods that fine-tune LLMs to retrieve information from KGs. We call our method SeedER (Seed-Expand-Retrieve), and position it primarily as a first-stage retriever that can run with modest computational resources.
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All authors Hamed Shirzad, Frederik Wenkel, Dominique Beaini, Danica J. Sutherland, Emmanuel Noutahi

Machine Learning

Approaching I/O-optimality for Approximate Attention

We revisit the I/O complexity of attention in large language models. Given query-key-value matrices $Q,K,V\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$, and a machine with fast memory size $M$, the goal is to compute the "attention matrix" $A=\text{softmax}(Q K ^{\top}/\sqrt{d}) V$ with the minimal number of data transfers between fast and slow memory. Existing methods in the literature, most notably FlashAttention and its variants, incur an I/O cost that depends quadratically on the context length $n$, while a trivial lower bound only requires $\Omega(nd)$ I/O's to read the inputs and write the output. In this work we show that the dependence on $n$ can be reduced to almost-linear, by developing I/O-efficient algorithms inspired by the recent approximate attention method of Alman and Song [NeurIPS'23]. We also provide (algorithm-specific) lower bounds in different parameter regimes, which nearly match the corresponding upper bounds, indicating that the proposed algorithms are indeed close to I/O-optimal.
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Machine Learning

Contrast to Detect: Dynamic Graph Contrastive Regularization for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series (MTS) is hindered by dynamic inter-variable dependencies and feature entanglement under spectral noise, and in practice, is further complicated by the absence of anomaly labels. Existing reconstruction-based detectors tend to recover anomalies as faithfully as normal patterns, while prevailing graph contrastive methods enforce invariance across views and thus assume a stationary relational structure, an assumption that breaks under structural drift in real systems. We propose ContrastAD, an unsupervised framework that turns structural evolution itself into a learning signal rather than suppressing it. A Multi-Perspective Embedder encodes inputs from temporal, attribute, and structural perspectives. A Frequency-Aware Attention Mixer then performs spectral top-K filtering before attention, preventing noise from leaking into query-key similarities. The core component, a Dynamic Graph Contrastive Learner, builds power-law-inspired sparse graph snapshots from batch-level DTW distances and contrasts the most divergent pair against a stable anchor, regularizing the latent space without imposing rigid invariance. Across five real-world benchmarks, ContrastAD attains the highest mean F1 on all five datasets and the highest AUC on three (SWaT 93.60, SMD 98.66, PSM 97.79), with statistically significant F1 and AUC margins over the strongest baseline on SWaT and PSM. On MSL and SMAP, it trails the AUC leader by under 0.7 points while still leading on F1. Ablation and sensitivity studies further confirm that the contrastive objective works best as a soft regularizer, supporting our claim that strict invariance is suboptimal under non-stationary dynamics.
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All authors Yunhua Pei, Zixing Song, Jin Zheng, John Cartlidge