Papers

Financial, social, and political factors often prevent the interests of the owners of ML systems and services and their users from being perfectly aligned. ML systems often produce biased information that can influence users to make decisions that are not in their best interest. Current solution approaches require ML systems to implement protocols to mitigate their biases. However, ML system owners usually do not have any incentive to implement these protocols and often argue that it limits their freedom of expression or business. We believe that a successful solution to this problem must recognize the conflict of interest between the ML systems and their users, and use this information to protect users against information that adversely influences their decisions while allowing users to safely benefit from these systems. To this end, we propose a game-theoretic framework that models the interaction between ML systems and users with conflicts of interest. We present scalable algorithms with theoretical guarantees that maximize the amount of desired information and actions and minimize the amount of biased and manipulative actions in interaction with ML systems.

Layer pruning removes entire Transformer decoder blocks from large language models, but introduces a mismatch between the hidden state received by the next surviving layer and the distribution it was trained to process, leading to significant performance degradation. We propose Ghosted Layers, a training-free recovery module that addresses this issue by solving a boundary activation alignment problem. Our method derives a closed-form optimal linear operator from a small calibration set to reconstruct the activation discrepancy introduced by the pruned layers. We show that this solution corresponds to the unconstrained optimum of the alignment objective, whereas LinearPatch is restricted to a fixed basis symmetric operator family. Across multiple LLM backbones, pruning strategies, and pruning depths, Ghosted Layers outperforms prior training-free recovery methods in accuracy and perplexity in most settings while preserving the efficiency benefits of layer pruning.

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

Generative diffusion models can provide powerful prior probability models for inverse problems in imaging, but existing implementations suffer from two key limitations: $(i)$ the prior density is represented implicitly, and $(ii)$ they rely on likelihood approximations that introduce sampling biases. We address these challenges by introducing a new energy-based model trained for denoising with a covariance-based regularization term that enforces consistency across different measurement conditions. The trained model can compute normalized posterior densities for diverse linear inverse problems, without additional retraining or fine tuning. In addition to preserving the sampling capabilities of diffusion models, this enables previously unavailable capabilities: energy-guided adaptive sampling that adjusts schedules on-the-fly, unbiased Metropolis-Hastings correction steps, and blind estimation of the degradation operator via Bayes rule. We validate the method on multiple datasets (ImageNet, CelebA, AFHQ) and tasks (inpainting, deblurring), demonstrating competitive or superior performance to established baselines.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) networks promise favorable accuracy-compute trade-offs, yet practical vision deployments are hindered by expert collapse and limited end-to-end efficiency gains. We study when sparse top-$k$ routing with hard capacity constraints helps in vision classification, evaluated under multi-seed protocols on four benchmarks (CIFAR-10/100, Tiny-ImageNet, ImageNet-1K). We observe a compute-leverage pattern: positive accuracy gaps require a substantial fraction $\rho$ of total FLOPs to be routed; at ImageNet scale this is necessary but not sufficient, as multi-expert routing ($k \geq 2$) is additionally required. Two controlled experiments isolate these factors. A hidden-size sweep on CIFAR-10 yields both predicted sign reversals across standard and depthwise backbones, ruling out backbone family as the active variable. An ImageNet-1K ablation that varies only top-$k$ – holding architecture, initialization, and $\rho$ fixed – reverses the gap from positive to negative across all five seeds. A per-sample variant of Soft MoE that softmaxes over experts rather than the batch rescues CIFAR-100 above the dense baseline, identifying batch-axis dispatch as the dominant failure mode in per-sample CNN settings. Code and aggregate results: https://github.com/libophd/sparse-moe-vision-rho.

Physical fields on meshes require a separation between topology and geometry: differential identities should remain exact, while geometry, material response, and anisotropic coupling are learned from data. Existing neural surrogates often mix these roles inside unconstrained message passing. We introduce Riemannian Hodge Message Passing (RHMP), which turns this separation into an architectural principle. RHMP fixes the cellular coboundaries ($d_k$) determined by oriented incidence and learns symmetric positive-definite cochain metrics ($H_k$) for geometry-dependent propagation. The learned metric defines how cochain fields are measured and coupled; its invariance to orthogonal changes of the hidden feature basis yields cochain-frame-equivariant propagation. RHMP implements this principle with metric-weighted Hodge blocks ($d_k^\top H_{k+1}d_k$), yielding exact cochain-complex identities ($d_{k+1}d_k=0$), nonnegative Hodge energies, positive-semidefinite operators, and exact Abelian curvature invariance. Across seven physical benchmarks spanning fluids, electromagnetism, gauge fields, and variable-mesh CFD, RHMP performs strongly across these systems, with the largest gains when topology, learned geometry, and field structure interact.

Half a million cuneiform clay tablets survive in museums worldwide, yet modern users can neither read nor write in the world's oldest writing system, leaving a 4,000-year cultural barrier that existing NLP tools have only partially addressed. Prior work enables one-way, scholar-oriented translation from Akkadian to English, but offers no path in the reverse direction: non-specialist users cannot compose new content in cuneiform, and therefore remain passive consumers of ancient culture rather than active participants. We present TabletCraft, the first open-source system that enables bidirectional interaction with Mesopotamian writing. Users can read ancient tablets (Akkadian to English) and compose new messages as cuneiform clay tablets (English to Akkadian to cuneiform to rendered tablet). The system integrates a ByT5-based translation model trained on 116K bidirectional samples, a cuneiform sign converter with 14,240 mappings (95.3% coverage), and a visual tablet renderer, packaged as a pip-installable toolkit with CLI and web demo. On the held-out Akkademia validation split (2,812 samples), we report 49.1 BLEU for Akkadian-to-English and 48.5 BLEU for English-to-Akkadian, the first published quantitative result in the reverse direction.

Large language models show promise for clinical prediction, but zero-shot performance on specialized tasks is limited by incomplete domain knowledge, especially for smaller locally deployable models. We present a lightweight knowledge-injection framework for zero-shot ICU delirium prediction that augments a deterministic natural-language summary of structured electronic health record data with an external clinical knowledge report at inference time, without fine-tuning or retrieval. We evaluate LLaMA 3.1 8B and LLaMA 3.3 70B on 3,160 ICU admissions from the MIMIC IV dataset. Adding a clinically meaningful external knowledge report improves AUROC by 8.57 percentage points for the 8B model and 1.99 percentage points for the 70B model compared to no external knowledge. Relative to a GPT-5.2 frontier-model reference without external knowledge report (AUROC 68.86%), knowledge injection reduces the performance gap from 15.66 to 7.09 AUROC points for LLaMA 8B and from 5.30 to 3.31 AUROC points for LLaMA 70B. Random control reports do not improve performance and often degrade it, indicating that gains depend on clinically meaningful content rather than added prompt length alone. SHAP-based attribution further confirms that the injected knowledge is actively used during prediction. These findings suggest that inference-time knowledge injection can narrow the gap between locally deployable open-weight models and frontier closed models while preserving a practical, privacy-preserving workflow for resource-constrained clinical settings.

Optimization modeling is the process of translating real-world decision problems, often described in natural language, into formal mathematical formulations and executable solver code. While recent advances in large language models have shown promise in automating this process, many approaches focus on one-shot generation or rely on predefined execution-and-repair workflows, without explicitly learning a policy for tool use and revision. This stands in sharp contrast to real-world optimization modeling, which is inherently interactive and proceeds through repeated solve-debug-revise cycles. We introduce PEARL, a system for multi-turn solver-interactive optimization modeling that uses Python execution and mathematical programming solvers inside this loop. Rather than relying on a fixed repair workflow, PEARL learns when to test partial models, how to revise from solver diagnostics, and when to stop. It operates in a multi-turn tool-integrated setting where intermediate execution results, feasibility signals, and solution checks are used to improve both formulations and solver code before finalization. Across diverse optimization benchmarks, PEARL substantially improves executable objective agreement over the same-scale base model and is competitive with strong one-shot and tool-augmented baselines. Notably, PEARL-Qwen3-4B outperforms the much larger DeepSeek-V3.2-685B baseline under direct prompting on both macro- and micro-averaged Pass@1. Code and datasets are provided at https://github.com/AuroraLHL/PEARL.

Multi-Level Intermediate Representation (MLIR) underlies modern ML compiler infrastructure (TensorFlow, JAX/StableHLO, PyTorch Inductor, IREE), yet appears only in trace amounts in code-LM pretraining corpora. MLIR is also extensible by design: new dialects ship per application domain, so a fine-tuned model per dialect does not scale. We ask whether inference-time priors derived mechanically from each dialect's Operation Definition Specification (ODS) can substitute for gradient-based adaptation. First, we release four natural-language-to-MLIR benchmarks across three dialects (MLIR-Spec-150, Linalg-Spec-30, StableHLO-Spec-30, StableHLO-Held-Out-200), totaling 410 in-scope NL-to-MLIR pairs, plus a 25-program out-of-grammar stress set, with functional references on 30 Spec prompts, under Apache-2.0 with Gebru datasheets and Croissant 1.1 metadata. Second, we build a three-layer schema-derived constraint stack: a CFG over op signatures (C1), type-domain splits from an ODS-extracted type lattice (C2), and an SSA-scope validator driving five-retry rejection sampling (C3). Porting it to StableHLO required no new constraint-layer code. On structurally dominated dialects, SmolLM2-1.7B with token-level constraints matches or exceeds 15B-34B code LMs running post-hoc rejection at a matched retry budget and 8-25x the per-generation speed: on linalg it reaches 80.0% verify-valid (three runs, n=125), 21 to 44 pp above CodeLlama-34B, Granite-Code-34B, and StarCoder2-15B with non-overlapping CIs. The comparison is between systems, not models: under the baselines' post-hoc protocol, SmolLM2 falls from 52.0% to 24.5% on arith+func. On arith+func and the templated StableHLO-Held-Out-200 the baselines match or beat the SLM; we scope these as non-win cells. We release benchmarks, decoder, every per-prompt generation, and a pinned reproducibility Dockerfile.

What matters more for building foundation models for wireless packet traces: the tokenizer or the architecture or both? To answer this question, we build on PLUME Anonymous [2026], which introduced protocol-aware tokenization for 802.11 traces; we scale model depth and transfer the same tokenizer to a fundamentally different architecture family. A deeper GPT (PLUME-DEEP, 24 layers) reaches 98.2% top-1 accuracy, gaining 32 points over the original 12-layer design, while a Mamba-2 state-space variant (PLUME-MAMBA) achieves 96.1% with 1.7x higher throughput and 2x longer context. The key insight emerges from a controlled 2x2 comparison across tokenizers and architectures: changing the tokenizer swings accuracy by 32 points; changing the architecture moves it by only 2. Protocol-aware tokenization is the primary performance lever, and the backbone becomes a deployment knob trading accuracy for speed.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) offer compelling energy efficiency on neuromorphic hardware, yet their training remains challenging because the discrete spike threshold is non-differentiable. Surrogate-gradient methods sidestep this by approximating the derivative, but they impose backpropagation infrastructure that is incompatible with on-chip learning. Evolution Strategies (\es) are a natural gradient-free alternative, yet their computational cost scales with the number of parameters, making them impractical for large weight matrices. We present a method for training SNNs using EGGROLL, a low-rank factorisation of ES perturbations that reduces per-generation memory from $\mathcal{O}(mn)$ to $\mathcal{O}(r(m{+}n))$. Combining EGGROLL with a Leaky Integrate-and-Fire SNN on N-MNIST, we demonstrate that gradient-free training achieves 79.21% test accuracy while reducing per-generation wall-clock time by 2.23$\times$ relative to full-rank ES. Our results demonstrate EGGROLL is viable for SNN training, with a clear accuracy-speed tradeoff, compatible with training on neuromorphic hardware without surrogate gradients.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged with promising energy-efficient property, yet a substantial performance gap persists compared to Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). This gap stems from at least two key limitations: first, conventional spiking neurons offer limited information representation capacity, underutilizing the rich dynamics of membrane potentials; second, fixed surrogate gradient (SG) functions across time steps leads to imprecise gradient propagation, impeding effective direct training. To address these two challenges, we propose a new direct training algorithm with three core innovations: first, a circulate-firing spiking neuron model that enhances information representation capacity by leveraging membrane potentials more effectively; second, a time-step-wise learnable surrogate gradient function, enabling accurate gradient estimation during backpropagation; third, a positive-negative balanced loss function to achieve equilibrium between positive and negative membrane potentials and further boost SNN performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our methods achieve competitive performance across multiple datasets. Our methods can generalize seamlessly to advanced architectures of Transformer, consistently outperforming existing methods. Our work highlights the effectiveness of further harnessing intrinsic membrane dynamics of SNNs for performance improvement, and thus open a new avenue for advancing high-performance spiking neural architectures.

Explicit dynamic finite element (FE) simulations are widely used for large-deformation analysis but remain expensive for design-space exploration. In explicit FE analysis, nodal kinematics and element-level deformation measures evolve through a coupled node-element update process. An FE-inspired learned simulator can preserve this structure and learn nodal kinematics and elemental deformation on their native domains. Nodal displacement describes geometry evolution, while elemental thinning identifies local deformation and critical regions. Feeding both outputs back during rollout allows each field to inform subsequent updates of the other. This work proposes CAtt-BiGNN, a cross-attention-based bipartite graph neural network for coupled nodal-elemental learning. The bipartite graph encodes FE-guided state organisation and information flow without imposing equilibrium or constitutive constraints. Mesh nodes and elements are represented as distinct graph entities connected by directed node-element edges, enabling prediction of nodal displacement increments and elemental deformation on their native domains. An edge-aware cross-attention processor dynamically updates edge representations and weights messages using the receiving state and evolving local relations. For larger graphs, CAtt-BiUGNN uses separate nodal and elemental downsampling and upsampling to enhance long-range propagation while preserving their interaction across graph levels. The method is evaluated on dome-shaped cold-forming and corner-shaped hot-forming benchmarks. Comparisons with node-centred baselines, an FE-inspired hypergraph model, a Physics-Attention-based neural operator, a graph Transformer, and attention ablations show improved joint accuracy in nodal displacement and elemental thinning prediction during autoregressive rollout.

Wildfire prediction is important for early warning and resource allocation, yet existing Earth foundation models (Earth FMs) are pretrained for general atmospheric and geophysical objectives rather than wildfire forecasting. To address this gap, we introduce WILDFIRE-FM, the first foundation model pretrained specifically for wildfire prediction using weather, active-fire observations, topography, vegetation, and static environmental data. However, introducing a domain-specific backbone alone does not solve the evaluation problem: wildfire events are sparse in space and time, making transfer conclusions highly sensitive to matching rules and evaluation settings. To address this problem, we introduce a fixed-contract evaluation framework with two controlled checks: a fixed-output check for matching-rule effects and a fixed-feature check for head-selection effects. Under matched contracts, we compare WILDFIRE-FM with ten Earth-FM baselines across occupancy, spread, retrieval, and regression tasks. Our results show that wildfire transfer conclusions depend strongly on evaluation design and task formulation. We hope this framework and WILDFIRE-FM provide a foundation for future wildfire-specific Earth-FM research and benchmarking. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Wildfire-fm-evaluation-contracts-5AE9/.

Overparameterized neural networks often contain many removable neurons, yet what makes a neuron redundant remains poorly understood. Existing pruning criteria commonly rely on local quantities such as weight magnitude, activation strength, or gradient sensitivity, but these measures provide limited insight into the structural role of a neuron in the transformation performed by a layer. Here we show that neuronal redundancy can be characterized by weak participation in the spectral structural distortion induced by layer-wise representation transformations. For each hidden layer of a trained network, we record pre-activation and post-activation hidden states, model neurons as graph nodes, and construct input-side and output-side graphs that describe neuron-level relational structure before and after the layer transformation. We then define a spectral structural importance score that measures the contribution of each neuron to the dominant graph-spectral distortion between these two relational structures. Low-participation neurons are treated as structurally redundant and removed through an iterative pruning process in which scores are recomputed after each structural change. No parameter updates are performed during intermediate pruning rounds; after the target parameter reduction is reached, a single recovery fine-tuning stage is applied to the compact model. Direct ablation analysis and experiments across conventional neural networks, encoder-only Transformers, and decoder-only language models show that this graph-spectral criterion identifies removable neurons and Transformer units while preserving task performance after compression. These results suggest that neural redundancy is not merely a consequence of small weights or weak activations, but can be understood through weak participation in the spectral distortion of layer-wise relational structure.

LLM routing matters most in long-horizon applications such as coding agents, deep research systems, and computer-use agents, where a single user request triggers many model calls. Routing each call to the cheapest sufficient model can cut costs without sacrificing quality, yet existing router benchmarks evaluate routers only on one-shot prompts. They never expose the router-visible prefix at an intermediate agent step, never test whether a cheaper replacement preserves downstream task success, and often rely on online LLM judges at evaluation time. We introduce TwinRouterBench, a step-level routing benchmark with two tracks. The static track provides 970 router-visible prefixes from 520 instances across SWE-bench, BFCL, mtRAG, QMSum, and PinchBench, each paired with an execution-verified target tier estimated under a released downgrade-and-cascade protocol; scoring is deterministic arithmetic over tier labels, trajectory membership, and token costs, with no online evaluator-side LLM judge. The dynamic track supplies a harness that runs routers on the full 500-case SWE-bench Verified suite; in this paper we report a 100-case held-out evaluation disjoint from the static SWE supervision split. At each LLM call the router selects a concrete model from a locked pool, and success is measured by official task resolution and realized API spend. The two tracks support fast offline iteration followed by end-to-end validation under live agent execution. Code and data are available at https://github.com/CommonstackAI/TwinRouterBench.

Probabilistic prediction systems often aggregate probability estimates from multiple models into a single decision. A common assumption is that if each model is individually calibrated, the aggregate prediction will also be well calibrated. We show that this assumption fails in multi-agent settings: individually calibrated predictors can become collectively miscalibrated when their predictions interact strategically, in the game-theoretic sense of Brier-optimal local response, even without deliberate coordination. This phenomenon arises naturally when agents are independently trained on overlapping data. We prove that under Brier-score-based aggregation with positively correlated beliefs, each agent's individually optimal report systematically underestimates the positive-class probability, yielding a Price of Anarchy greater than one whenever Cov(b_i, b_j) > 0. In a canonical setting (n = 5 agents, pairwise correlation = 0.5, base rate = 0.3), the empirically measured PoA in false-negative rate reaches 7.25x. In contrast, VCG-based aggregation aligns incentives by rewarding marginal contribution, achieving dominant-strategy incentive compatibility and near-optimal performance. Experiments on three real-world datasets (NSL-KDD, UNSW-NB15, Credit Card Fraud) show that VCG provides strong robustness while maintaining comparable accuracy. It performs particularly well in data-sparse and adversarial settings, and adaptive weighting further improves performance under distribution shift.

For most of the history of information retrieval (IR), search results were designed for human consumers who could scan, filter, and discard irrelevant information on their own. This shaped retrieval systems to optimize for finding and ranking more relevant documents, but not keeping results clean and minimal, as the human was the final filter. However, LLMs have changed that by lacking this filtering ability. To address this, we introduce Bits-over-Random (BoR), a chance-corrected measure of retrieval selectivity that reveals when high success rates mask random-level performance. We measure selectivity as $BoR = \log_{2}\left(\frac{\mathrm{P}_{obs}}{\mathrm{P}_{rand}}\right)$, where $\mathrm{P}_{rand}$ is the hypergeometric baseline for the chosen success rule (here, coverage: $ \geq1 $ relevant in top-$K$). On the 20 Newsgroups dataset, BM25 and SPLADE both report $>99$% success at $K=100$ (coverage), yet $BoR \approx 0$, indicating random-level selectivity at that depth. When the expected coverage ratio $\left(\frac{K \cdot \bar{R}_{q}}{N}\right)$ exceeds 3-5, the baseline dominates and selectivity collapses. Downstream retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) evaluation confirms this pattern: LLM accuracy can degrade substantially at $K=100$, consistent with the near-zero BoR ceiling. In contrast, BoR remains positive on BEIR/SciFact and on MS MARCO (where 41 systems cluster within 0.2 bits of the theoretical ceiling despite a 13-point recall gap), confirming baseline predictions across sparse and large-scale settings. We further show that the collapse boundary applies to LLM agent tool selection, where small catalog sizes cause selectivity to vanish even with perfect selectors. These findings suggest reporting BoR alongside traditional metrics and reconsidering depth choices when additional retrieval provides negligible selectivity gains while inflating computational costs.

Seismic prediction remains challenging due to the highly nonlinear and chaotic dynamics of earthquake signals. While classical deep learning models such as LSTMs and CNNs capture local temporal features, and quantum models offer richer state representations, their integration with chaos-driven mechanisms is underexplored. We introduce QuChaTeR, a hybrid architecture that combines wavelet-based preprocessing, chaotic maps, and variational quantum circuits with recurrent structures to enhance temporal feature extraction. Implemented in PyTorch and PennyLane, QuChaTeR is benchmarked against classical (LSTM, GRU, RNN, 1D-CNN, Reservoir Computing) and quantum-inspired (Quantum LSTM) baselines. On real-world seismic datasets, QuChaTeR consistently converges faster and achieves superior performance across multiple evaluation criteria. Despite promising results, scalability and quantum hardware limitations remain challenges. Overall, this work demonstrates how quantum-chaotic hybridization provides a practical pathway toward more accurate and robust earthquake prediction.

Federated Learning (FL) trains a global model across decentralized clients while preserving data privacy, but at scale it is vulnerable to malicious updates. Byzantine-resilient aggregation methods such as MultiKrum score gradients against their nearest neighbors and can miss malicious updates that preserve the statistical properties of honest ones. We propose a quantum annealing approach that reformulates client selection as a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem, encoding pairwise distances into a cost function solved by quantum annealers (QA). Unlike MultiKrum's greedy per-client scoring, the QUBO formulation jointly optimizes over all subsets to find the mutually closest group of $m$ clients. At small scale (15 clients), QUBO outperforms MultiKrum on the most challenging Byzantine attacks: e.g., Advanced LIE is detected with 95.11% accuracy versus 81.33% on MNIST and 97.78% versus 75.56% on CIFAR-10. QUBO fares poorly on simpler attacks where MultiKrum excels, so the two methods are complementary. QUBO quality also degrades as the number of clients grows. To address this, we introduce a MultiSignal ensemble that uses a dual-feature routing gate based on Euclidean and cosine Krum score gaps to classify attacks into four regimes and routes evasion attacks to a suspicion-penalized QUBO with agreement voting. At 100 clients on MNIST, MultiSignal achieves 95.3% average detection accuracy versus 91.8% for classical MultiKrum, with the largest gains on Sparse Lie (72.0% to 95.2%, +23.2 points) and Advanced Lie (80.4% to 85.2%, +4.8 points). These results show that QUBO-based quantum annealing with MultiSignal is a principled and scalable defense against the most challenging Byzantine strategies in federated learning.

Heatwaves are an important problem in cities, and climate change makes this problem more difficult. In this paper, we present a GPU-based deep learning framework for next-day prediction of urban thermal conditions and for heat risk assessment. The study was carried out in Sarajevo by using MODIS land surface temperature data and Open-Meteo forecast data. We tested several models, including convolutional models and spatiotemporal models. Among them, ConvLSTM with a mixed loss function gave the best results. The obtained values were MAE = 0.2293, RMSE = 0.3089, and R2 = 0.8877. The experiments also showed that results can be improved by using longer temporal series and additional meteorological variables. Since the framework was implemented on a GPU and trained with mixed precision, the execution time was reduced. Based on the predicted temperature fields, it was also possible to combine hazard information with exposure and vulnerability data in order to generate city heat risk maps. The proposed framework can be used as a practical basis for city heat analysis.

Task allocation in smart manufacturing systems must operate under decentralized decision-making, dynamic workloads, and shared-resource constraints. In circular manufacturing settings, these challenges are further intensified because tasks compete for reusable, capacity-constrained assets, and machine selection also might affect processing energy. Although learning-based approaches have been explored for task allocation, improvements in predictive modeling do not necessarily translate into better allocation outcomes under decentralized negotiation. This work proposes an Edge-AI-driven decentralized task-allocation framework. We develop lightweight decision intelligence deployed at the machine level. It is developed progressively: first, a resource-aware heuristic establishes the decentralized bidding structure; a regression-based Edge-AI formulation then examines learned local bid approximation, and a compact autoencoder-regularized pairwise ranking model finally provides a learned correction to the analytical bid ordering. Each machine evaluates incoming tasks by using its processing capability, queue state, energy characteristics, and a compact signal representing contention over the reusable shared production asset. The framework is assessed using discrete-event simulation in scenarios characterized by high load and dependence on shared resources. Compared to the heuristic, the proposed ranking method increases completed tasks, reduces average tardiness, and lowers the deadline-miss rate, with statistically significant paired differences. Mean energy per completed task is also reduced. The results indicate that effective learning-assisted allocation depends not only on approximating local decision quantities, but also on shaping the relative preferences that determine negotiation outcomes.

Scaling LLMs requires tremendous computational resources, and recent advances in AI have gone hand in hand with massive amounts of capital expenditure. While it is established that scaling up LLMs reliably increases model quality (quantified in terms of loss or downstream evaluations), it is unclear how these quality improvements translate to potential revenue, and whether revenue increases would offset costs of larger-scale training and inference. In this work, we develop an economic model for characterizing the rational behavior of an LLM training firm by combining scaling laws with microeconomic theory. Under our model of firm behavior, LLM quality can be increased with more parameters and training tokens, leading to more potential adoption by consumers, who each have a quality threshold for using the LLM. On the other hand, additional parameters and training tokens both incur additional costs. We analyze the profit maximization problem for this model under compute-bound and data-bound regimes. In the compute-bound regime, optimal model size and token budget track hardware efficiency $E$ (FLOPs/\$) at a near-linear rate; total training cost then scales sub-quadratically in $E$. Data efficiency improvements incentivize larger models and training expenditure. When we are limited to $D$ data, profit-optimal training expenditure scales as $D^2/E$, i.e, increase with data and decreases with hardware efficiency (as well as data efficiency). Finally, we analyze practical trends in training expenditure: current trends are consistent with our most permissive model variants in the compute-bound regime, but are not profit-optimal in the data-bound regime or assuming hardware advances will stall. Overall, our results provide a theory of profit-optimal LLM training, providing a foundation for engaging critically with industry statements and supporting long-term economic decision making.

We introduce QuantFPFlow, a reinforcement learning framework that integrates quantum amplitude estimation into the Fokker–Planck~(FP) formulation of stochastic policy optimisation. Classical continuous-space RL agents must estimate the FP partition function $Z = \int e^{-V(\mathbf{x})/D}\,d\mathbf{x}$ at cost $\calO(1/\varepsilon^{2})$; QuantFPFlow replaces this with a Grover-amplified amplitude estimator achieving $\calO(1/\varepsilon)$ – a provable quadratic speedup. While the full quantum acceleration requires fault-tolerant hardware, the quantum-inspired classical simulation demonstrated here already exhibits the $\calO(1/\varepsilon)$ algorithmic structure. The estimated stationary distribution $\rhostar$ drives a theoretically grounded exploration bonus $\Raug = \Renv + \alpha\log(1/\rhostar(s))$. This bonus steers the agent toward globally optimal regions of multimodal reward landscapes while simultaneously constraining policy variance through FP diffusion matching. On a continuous-control task specifically designed to expose local-optima failure, QuantFPFlow achieves mean reward $1{,}295.7 \pm 423.2$ versus $1{,}284.0 \pm 474.0$ for Soft Actor-Critic~(SAC), while discovering the global optimum 10.4\,% more frequently (33.9\,% vs.\ 30.7\,%). Policy entropy remains near $H(\pi)\approx 6.5$\,nats throughout training, whereas SAC collapses to $1.5$\,nats, confirming that FP diffusion matching actively prevents premature convergence. Dimensionality experiments further show computational scaling of $\calO(d^{0.35})$ for QuantFPFlow versus $\calO(d^{0.76})$ for classical FP estimation.

This paper addresses the problem of reconstructing missing or dropped frames in top-down drone video of autonomous surface vehicles performing structured maritime manoeuvres. We propose a pipeline that converts raw GPS telemetry and a single reference frame into a trajectory-guided video sequence using a pre-trained image-to-video diffusion model, requiring no domain-specific fine-tuning. GPS coordinates from onboard telemetry logs are projected into image space via an equirectangular mapping, producing per-vessel motion cues that condition the SG-I2V diffusion model. The generated frames are evaluated against ground-truth video using perceptual, temporal and trajectory-based metrics, and benchmarked against optical flow extrapolation and RIFE interpolation baselines. SG-I2V produces the most naturally appearing frames among all methods (BRISQUE 25.52, closest to ground-truth 23.64), the most realistic motion magnitude (temporal smoothness 1.14 vs. ground truth 1.42), and the strongest GPS trajectory adherence (9.31px vs. 28.70px for ground-truth, the latter reflecting approximate temporal alignment between footage and GPS logs rather than generation error), demonstrating that trajectory-guided diffusion synthesis is a viable approach to maritime video reconstruction under challenging low-texture, small-object conditions.

Ocean dynamics are inherently chaotic, yet existing machine learning ocean models produce only deterministic forecasts. We introduce Njord, a probabilistic data-driven model for ocean forecasting, applicable to both global and regional domains. Njord combines a deep latent variable framework with a graph neural network architecture, enabling sampling each forecast step in a single forward pass. We apply Njord globally at 0.25{\deg} resolution and regionally to the Baltic Sea at 2 km resolution. To scale to these large ocean grids we introduce K-means cluster meshes that adapt to irregular sea surface geometry. Experiments demonstrate strong performance on both domains compared to deterministic machine learning baselines, while also providing uncertainty estimates from the sampled ensemble forecasts. On the global OceanBench benchmark, Njord achieves the lowest errors on average across upper-ocean variables when evaluated against real-world observations, with the largest improvements in surface temperature prediction.

Physiological time series signals reflect complex, multi-scale dynamical processes of the human body. Existing modeling studies focus on static tasks such as classification, event forecasting, or short-horizon next step prediction, while long-horizon signal-level forecasting and predictive nature of physiological signals remain underexplored. We introduce NormWear-2, a world model that encodes both multivariate physiological signals and clinical intervention variables into a shared latent space and models their joint temporal evolution as a dynamical system. Our approach combines inference from prior pre-trained knowledge (intuition) with instant non-parametric latent state transition adaptation (insight), enabling coherent forecasting across multiple temporal scales, conditioned on heterogeneous clinical interventions. During the pretraining phase, we find that chaos-theoretic balancing of dynamical regime diversity yields more robust representations, with a smaller balanced corpus outperforming one twice its size and capturing bifurcation regimes. We evaluate the world model performance across diverse real-world physiological datasets spanning heterogeneous temporal resolutions and intervention regimes, covering daily life, point-of-care, and clinical settings, including fitness planning, hemodialysis, diabetes management, and surgical monitoring. These evaluation datasets comprise records from 8,026 subjects, spanning study durations from 3.2 hours for high-resolution signal data to 2.3 years for longitudinal clinical biomarker tracking. NormWear-2 achieves the best overall forecasting performance across time, frequency, and latent representation domains, with significant improvements over state-of-the-art time series foundation models, while maintaining competitive downstream representation quality, providing a step toward general-purpose world models for physiological signals.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is widely used to improve the reasoning capability of language models, since model-generated answers can be easily verified by a rule-based verifier. In contrast, reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is mainly used to optimize open-ended conversation with a learned reward model, because such responses are not easy to verify. RLVR and RLHF are usually trained separately with their own domain data and training protocols. How gains transfer between these domains is unclear, partly because comparisons change both where a model is trained (the prompts) and what is rewarded (by a verifier or a reward model). We separate the two in a controlled study of RL on multiple base models that fixes the optimizer and the number of training prompts, and varies only the source domain of the prompts (math, multi-domain, chat, or mixtures) and the reward. We find that RLHF on open-ended prompts substantially improves conversational ability and also brings large gains in reasoning and coding, whereas RLVR improves reasoning but its gains in open-ended conversation plateau far below those of RLHF, suggesting that RL on open-ended prompts with a reward model can serve as an effective approach for generalizing across domains.

As machine learning models grow in complexity, they increasingly struggle with three conflicting demands: the need for high accuracy, the requirement for hardware efficiency, and the necessity of functional stability. Traditional architectures often achieve performance at the expense of spiky or unpredictable behavior, where small changes in input lead to massive swings in output – a critical flaw for real-world deployment in sensitive environments. This paper introduces ChainzRule (CR), a novel neural architecture designed to harmonize these competing goals. ChainzRule replaces standard piecewise-linear activations with a Polynomial Engine governed by Differential Regularization (DREG). Unlike traditional methods that impose global, coarse-grained constraints on a model's Lipschitz constant, DREG acts as a targeted regularization on intermediate derivatives. This approach suppresses extreme sensitivity without attenuating the representational power inherent in the Polynomial Engine. In head-to-head "Fair Fight" benchmarks, ChainzRule outperformed standard models while using 15.5x fewer parameters. On the MNIST dataset, it reduced peak gradient volatility by an average of 23.1%, ensuring a smoother and more predictable manifold. On Yelp Full ordinal regression under explicit DREG regularization, ChainzRule achieves 70.17% accuracy, validating that derivative-aware regularization is compatible with competitive performance on realistic tasks. By embedding gradient awareness into the architecture via DREG, ChainzRule demonstrates that stability and accuracy need not be competing objectives.