Papers

Current 3D tokenizers largely treat representation as spatial compression: compact codes reconstruct surface geometry, but leave component ownership and attachment validity implicit. In open-world assets with intersecting components, noisy topology, and weak canonical structure, this creates a representation mismatch: local shape, component identity, and assembly relations become entangled in a latent stream and are not natively addressable during decoding. We formulate an alternative view, interface-centric generative states, in which tokenization constructs an operational state rather than a passive compressed code. The state exposes local geometry, component ownership, and attachment validity as variables that can be queried, constrained, and repaired during decoding. We instantiate this formulation with Component-Conditioned Canonical Local Tokens (C2LT-3D), factorizing representation into canonical local geometry, partition-conditioned context, and relational seam variables. Each factor targets a distinct failure mode of compression-centric tokens: pose leakage, cross-component interference, or invalid local attachment. This exposed state supports attachment validation, latent structural repair, targeted intervention, and constrained serialization without a separate post-hoc structure recovery module. Trained on single-object CAD models and evaluated zero-shot on open-world multi-component assets, C2LT-3D improves structural robustness and shows that its latent variables remain actionable under adversarial attachment settings. These results suggest that open-world 3D generative representations should be evaluated not only by reconstruction fidelity, but by whether their discrete states remain operational for assembly-level structural reasoning.

Domain Generation Algorithms (DGAs) evolve continuously to evade botnet detection, posing a persistent challenge for dependable network defense. While deep learning-based detectors achieve strong performance under static conditions, they suffer severe degradation when facing temporal drift. Through a 9-year longitudinal study (2017-2025), we empirically show that state-of-the-art character- and word-based DGA classifiers rapidly lose effectiveness as new DGA variants emerge. To address this problem, we propose a drift-resilient Transformer-based framework that learns invariant representations through a hybrid tokenization strategy and multi-task self-supervised pre-training. The model integrates (i) character-level encoding to capture stochastic morphological patterns and (ii) subword-level encoding for word-based DGAs. Three pre-training tasks enable the model to learn robust structural and contextual features prior to supervised fine-tuning. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our method significantly mitigates temporal degradation and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in forward-chaining experiments. The proposed approach offers a dependable foundation for long-term DGA defense in evolving threat landscapes. Our code is available at: https://github.com/snsec-net/2026-DSN-DRIFT.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions. Methodological work typically relies on semi-simulated benchmarks and metrics that require counterfactual outcomes, whereas real-world applications rely on observable metrics based on ranking or test outcomes. Despite the well-known gap between methodological progress and practical deployment, the relationship between these evaluation regimes has not been examined systematically. We conduct a large-scale empirical study of treatment effect evaluation across standard semi-simulated benchmark families and real-world datasets. Our benchmark covers meta-learners paired with multiple base learners, as well as specialized causal machine learning models. We evaluate these methods using observable metrics common in application-oriented literature, alongside counterfactual metrics commonly used in methods papers. Our results reveal two complementary gaps. First, counterfactual metrics do not reliably recover the estimators preferred by observable metrics, even on the same semi-simulated benchmarks. Second, rankings obtained on semi-simulated benchmarks do not transfer to real datasets. We further find that simple meta-learners with strong base models are consistently competitive, in contrast to specialized causal models. Overall, our findings suggest that progress in treatment effect estimation research should not be assessed solely through counterfactual metrics and semi-simulated benchmarks, but it would benefit from incorporating observable metrics and real-data validation.

Rotary Positional Encoding (RoPE) is widely used in modern large language models. However, when sequences are extended beyond the range seen during training, rotary phases can enter out-of-distribution regimes, leading to spurious long-range alignments, diffuse attention, and degraded retrieval. Existing remedies only partially address these failures, as they often trade local positional resolution for long-context stability. We propose GAPE (Gated Adaptive Positional Encoding), a drop-in augmentation for positional encodings that introduces a content-aware bias directly into the attention logits while preserving the rotary geometry. GAPE decouples distance-based suppression from token importance through a query-dependent gate that contracts irrelevant context and a key-dependent gate that preserves salient distant tokens. We show that weakly protected distant context is exponentially attenuated as a function of the query gate, while selected keys can remain accessible through landmark protection. We further show that GAPE can be implemented within standard scaled dot-product attention. Empirically, GAPE improves long-context robustness across controlled retrieval and language-modeling experiments, extrapolating up to 8x the training length. We further retrofit GAPE into a pretrained 7B model, maintaining performance on standard benchmarks and improving performance at the longest evaluated context. These results support adaptive context suppression as a complement to positional representation for long-context generalization.

Large language models can score well on named game-theory benchmarks while failing on the same strategic computation once semantic cues are removed. We show this gap with procedurally generated zero-sum matrix games: a model that recognizes familiar games drops to 34%, 18%, and 2% success on anonymous $2{\times}2$, $3{\times}3$, and $5{\times}5$ payoff matrices. The benchmark separates semantic recall, learned approximate Nash computation, and an output-interface bottleneck that limits scale. Training only on $2{\times}2$ and $3{\times}3$ games, supervised fine-tuning raises unseen $5{\times}5$–$7{\times}7$ success from 2% to 61%, while exploitability-reward training averages 37% with high seed variance. We prove that the exploitability residual is $2$-Lipschitz in payoff perturbations, unlike discontinuous vertex-returning LP equilibrium selectors, explaining why residual training can transfer under payoff shifts even when formatting instability limits mean performance. A dominated-action padding experiment provides causal evidence: trained models solve $3{\times}3$ games embedded in much larger matrices, while random-padded controls fail and dense $12{\times}12$ games remain near failure. Procedural evaluation is therefore necessary for measuring strategic reasoning, and residual rewards expose a real but format-limited route to approximate equilibrium computation.

Modern LLM APIs often reveal only top-$K$ logit scores and censor the remaining vocabulary. We study the per-position distribution-recovery limits of this access model. For censoring threshold $\tau$, the compatible teacher distributions form an identified set whose total-variation diameter is exactly $U_K=(V-K)\exp(\tau)/(Z_A+(V-K)\exp(\tau))$, where $Z_A$ is the observed partition function. For KL recovery, we give a computable binary-endpoint lower bound and an asymptotically matching small-ambiguity upper bound, with an extension to reference-aware attackers. Experiments on a Qwen3 math-reasoning teacher reveal a layered extraction hierarchy: on-task top-$K$ distillation recovers 12% of private capability, full-logit distillation recovers 56% despite 99% KL closure, and generation-based extraction recovers 96%. Top-$K$ censoring therefore limits per-position distribution recovery but does not by itself prevent capability extraction, separating fidelity from transfer in prompt-only logit distillation.

Selecting the best large language model (LLM) for a fixed benchmark is often expensive, since exhaustive evaluation requires running every model on every example. Multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms can reduce the number of LLM calls by sequentially selecting the next model-example pair to evaluate, thereby avoiding wasted evaluations on clearly underperforming models. Further savings can be achieved by predicting model scores from the partially observed model-example score matrix using low-rank factorization. However, such predictions are not ground truth: they can be biased and may therefore lead to incorrect identification of the best model. In this work, we propose a principled framework that combines MAB with cheap predicted scores without compromising statistical validity. Specifically, we derive doubly robust estimators of each model's performance that use the low-rank predictions to reduce variance. This enables the construction of valid finite-sample confidence intervals in our setting, where models are selected adaptively and examples are sampled without replacement. Empirical results on real-world benchmarks show that our approach reduces the number of required evaluations, yielding meaningful savings in compute and cost while accurately identifying the best-performing model.

Neural networks have proved an effective means of learning control policies for autonomous systems, but these learned policies are difficult to understand due to the black-box nature of neural networks. This lack of interpretability makes safety assurance for such autonomous systems challenging. The fields of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) and eXplainable Reinforcement Learning (XRL) aim to interpret the decision making processes of neural networks and autonomous agents, respectively. In particular, work on causal explanations aims to provide "why" and "why not" explanations for why a model made a given decision. However, most of the work on explainability to date utilises a distilled version of the original model. While this distilled policy is interpretable, it necessarily degrades in performance significantly when compared to the original model, and is not guaranteed to be an accurate reflection of the decision making processes in the original model and as such cannot be used to guarantee its safety. Recent work on understanding the geometry of ReLU neural networks shows that a ReLU network corresponds to a piecewise linear function divided into regions defined by an n-dimensional convex polytope. Through this lens, a neural network can be understood as dividing the input space into distinct regions which apply a single linear function for each output neuron. We show that this geometric representation can be used to generate causal explanations for the network's behaviour similar to previous work, but which extracts rules directly from the geometry of Neural Networks with the ReLU activation function, and is therefore an accurate reflection of the network's behaviour.

We study the information-theoretic limits of learning a one-hidden-layer teacher network with hierarchical features from noisy queries, in the context of knowledge transfer to a smaller student model. We work in the high-dimensional regime where the teacher width $k$ scales linearly with the input dimension $d$ – a setting that captures large-but-finite-width networks and has only recently become analytically tractable. Using a heuristic leave-one-out decoupling argument, validated numerically throughout, we derive asymptotically sharp characterizations of the Bayes-optimal generalization error and individual feature overlaps via a system of closed fixed-point equations. These equations reveal that feature learnability is governed by a sequence of sharp phase transitions: as data grows, teacher features become recoverable sequentially, each through a discontinuous jump in overlap. This sequential acquisition underlies a precise notion of effective width $k_c$ – the number of learnable features at a given data budget $n$ – which unifies two distinct scaling regimes: a feature-learning regime in which the Bayes-optimal generalization error $\varepsilon^{\rm BO}$ scales as $ n^{1/(2\beta)-1}$, and a refinement regime in which it scales as $n^{-1}$, where $\beta>1/2$ is the exponent of the power-law feature hierarchy. Both laws collapse to the single relation $\varepsilon^{\rm BO}=\Theta(k_c d/n)$. We further show empirically that a student trained with Adam near the effective width $k_c$ achieves these optimal scaling laws (up to a small algorithmic gap), and provide an information-theoretic account of the associated scaling in model size.

The counting power of Message Passing Neural Networks (MPNN) has been the subject of many recent papers, showing that they can express logic that involves counting up to a threshold or more generally satisfy a linear arithmetic constraint. In this paper, we study the counting capabilities of MPNN beyond linear arithmetic, primarily utilising local and global mean aggregations. In particular, our goal is to tease out conditions required to express extensions of graded modal logic with polynomial counting constraints. We show that global polynomial counting constraints in node-labelled graphs can be checked using mean MPNN under mild assumptions. Checking local constraints is also possible, if we consider formulas with no nested modalities and additionally either (i) permit sum/max aggregations, or (ii) only restrict to regular graphs. We also show how formulas with nested modalities can be captured by mean MPNN over graphs with tree-like structures and similar assumptions.

Guided-diffusion black-box optimization (BO) has shown strong empirical performance on structured design problems such as molecules and crystals, but its regret behavior remains poorly understood. Existing BO regret analyses typically rely on maximum information gain, non-pretrained surrogate models, or exact acquisition maximization – assumptions that break down in modern diffusion – BO pipelines, where pretrained diffusion models serve as powerful priors over valid structures and acquisition maximization is replaced by approximate sampling over astronomically large discrete spaces. We develop a first certificate-based expected simple-regret framework for guided-diffusion BO that avoids maximum-information-gain bounds, RKHS assumptions, and exact acquisition maximization. The central quantity in our analysis is mass lift: the increase in probability mass assigned to near-optimal designs relative to the pretrained generator. This view explains how exponential-looking finite-budget convergence and polynomial acceleration can all arise from the same mechanism. We also give practical diagnostics for estimating search exponents from finite candidate pools and a proposal-corrected resampling construction that provides a fully certified sampler instance.

Solving nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) using kernel methods offers a compelling alternative to traditional numerical solvers. However, the performance of these methods strongly depends on the choice of kernel. In this work, as the available information is inherently multifidelity, we propose a kernel learning approach based on cokriging, leveraging empirical information from multifidelity simulations. In the first step, we fit a differentiable non-stationary kernel to an empirical kernel obtained from low-fidelity simulations. In the second step, we derive a high-fidelity kernel with estimated hyperparameters, and construct a corresponding high-fidelity mean using the multifidelity framework. These components can then be used within a Gaussian process framework for solving PDEs. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed physics-informed method on the Burgers' equation.

Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning often assumes a fixed execution team, yet many decentralized systems must operate with varying numbers of active agents during deployment. We study this setting under episodic roster variation: each episode is executed by a set of homogeneous agents, with the team size varying across episodes. Agents act only from local histories, without execution-time communication, privileged coordinators, or online retraining. Therefore, effective cooperation requires each agent to recover relevant context about the active team and adapt its behavior accordingly. To this end, we propose PC3D (Personalized Central Coordination Context Distillation), a method for training decentralized policies to recover and use personalized coordination context from local interaction histories. During training, a set-structured centralized teacher compresses the active team into coordination tokens and personalizes them into agent-specific contexts, which are distilled into decentralized policies. At execution, each agent predicts its own context from local history and adaptively uses it to condition decision-making. Across three cooperative MARL benchmarks, PC3D achieves higher returns than the evaluated baselines with both seen and unseen roster sizes, and ablations attribute these gains to both context distillation and adaptive context use.

Modeling uncertainty in heavy-tailed time series remains a critical challenge for deep probabilistic forecasting models, which often struggle to capture abrupt, extreme events. While Lévy stable distributions offer a natural framework for modeling such non-Gaussian behaviors, the intractability of their probability density functions severely limits conventional likelihood-based inference. To address this, we introduce DeepLévy, a neural framework that learns mixtures of Lévy stable distributions by minimizing the discrepancy between empirical and parametric characteristic functions. DeepLévy incorporates a mixture mechanism that adaptively learns context-dependent weights and parameters over multiple Lévy components, enabling flexible multi-horizon uncertainty modeling. Evaluations on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that DeepLévy outperforms state-of-the-art deep probabilistic forecasting approaches in tail risk metrics, especially under extreme volatility.

Reliable inference requires that artificial intelligence (AI) models provide trustworthy uncertainty estimates, not merely accurate predictions. Recent advances in Bayesian learning have made significant progress toward this goal, and growing concerns about computational overhead have jointly shifted the design criterion from reliability alone to the co-design of reliability and efficiency, i.e., reducing computational overhead while preserving trustworthy uncertainty quantification. This thesis develops a unified framework from two perspectives to address the central question: can we efficiently perform reliable inference?

Annotating bounding boxes is costly and limits the scalability of object detection. This challenge is compounded by the need to preserve high accuracy while minimizing manual effort in real-world applications. Prior active learning methods often depend on model features or modify detector internals and training schedules, increasing integration overhead. Moreover, they rarely jointly exploit the benefits of image-level signals, class-imbalance cues, and instance-level uncertainty for comprehensive selection. We present Portable Active Learning (PAL), a detector-agnostic, easily portable framework that operates solely on inference outputs. PAL combines class-wise instance uncertainty with image-level diversity to guide data selection. At each round, PAL trains lightweight class-specific logistic classifiers to distinguish true from false positives, producing entropy-based uncertainty scores for proposals. Candidate images are then refined using global image entropy, class diversity, and image similarity, yielding batches that are both informative and diverse. PAL requires no changes to model internals or training pipelines, ensuring broad compatibility across detectors. Extensive experiments on COCO, PASCAL VOC, and BDD100K demonstrate that PAL consistently improves label efficiency and detection accuracy compared to existing active learning baselines, making it a practical solution for scalable and cost-effective deployment of object detection in real-world settings.

Adaptive optimizers such as Adam are standard for training Transformers, but storing gradient first and second moments incurs substantial memory overhead. We introduce PowerStep, a memory-efficient optimizer that achieves coordinate-wise adaptivity without storing second-moment statistics. Motivated by $\ell_p$-norm steepest descent, PowerStep applies a signed-power transform directly to one momentum buffer. We establish a finite-horizon stationarity bound for exact, unregularized updates, with an $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ term and a noise-dependent residual. Experiments on Transformers from 124M to 235B parameters show competitive validation quality while halving $\texttt{fp32}$ optimizer-state memory relative to AdamW. Combined with uniform $\texttt{int8}$ quantization, PowerStep remains numerically stable and reduces optimizer-state memory by $\sim8\times$ compared to $\texttt{fp32}$ AdamW. PowerStep thus provides a simple, memory-efficient alternative for large-scale training.

We propose a novel Mixture-of-Experts framework, referred to as Expert Loss Integration MoE (EliMoE), for time series forecasting. EliMoE addresses the optimization problem arising from small gating weights by incorporating expert-specific losses, which provide each expert with a direct learning signal independent of the gate-assigned weight. Specifically, the overall objective comprises the base forecasting loss and expert-specific losses, allowing individual expert prediction errors to directly influence parameter updates alongside the aggregate forecasting error. The framework also encourages different experts to learn from different temporal segments of the data. The proposed framework is further combined with a partial online learning strategy that enables efficient incremental updates of model parameters. By integrating expert-level loss information with partial online learning, EliMoE improves forecasting performance while retaining computational efficiency. Empirical results across five benchmark datasets from diverse application domains with different sampling frequencies show that the proposed approach generally outperforms state-of-the-art supervised neural forecasting models, including Transformer-based architectures such as PatchTST, as well as zero-shot time-series foundation models such as TimeMoE. Furthermore, ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of the expert-specific loss integration strategy, highlighting its contribution to enhancing predictive performance.

Knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models typically represent each relation as an operator on entity embeddings. In this work, we identify three structural axioms that any principled relation operator must satisfy, linearity, trace preservation, and complete positivity, and show that they characterize a Kraus channel structure via the Kraus representation theorem. The completeness constraint defining this family is equivalent to these axioms, providing a principled foundation rather than an externally imposed condition. Under this formulation, most existing operator-based KGE models are recoverable as special cases with Kraus rank $\kappa = 1$ under specific embedding choices. We further generalize this characterization to arbitrary metric geometries by introducing \mbox{w-Kraus} channels, which satisfy completeness by construction within their respective spaces. Building on this theory, we propose KrausKGE, a principled KGE model that naturally handles $1$-to-$N$ and $N$-to-$N$ relations, supports $k$-hop reasoning without requiring explicit path encoders, and eliminates the need for norm constraints on entity embeddings. Additionally, our framework yields the first theoretically grounded per-relation complexity measure in the KGE literature, with a provable lower bound in terms of the empirical relation matrix rank. Empirical evaluation demonstrates that KrausKGE consistently outperforms strong baselines on $N$-to-$N$ relations, with performance gains that increase monotonically with relation fan-out, in alignment with theoretical predictions.

Generative tabular augmentation is appealing in data-scarce domains, yet the prevailing focus on distributional fidelity does not reliably translate into better downstream models. We formalize a fidelity-utility gap: common generative objectives prioritize distributional plausibility, whereas augmentation succeeds only when injected samples reduce the current learner's held-out evaluation loss. This gap motivates learning not just how to generate, but what to generate and when to inject as training evolves. We propose TAP (Tabular Augmentation Policy), which couples diffusion inpainting with a lightweight, learner-conditioned policy to steer generation toward high-utility regions and controls safe injection via explicit gating and conservative windowed commitment. Under severe data scarcity, TAP consistently outperforms strong generative baselines on seven real-world datasets, improving classification accuracy by up to 15.6 percentage points and reducing regression RMSE by up to 32%.

We study contextual bandits with nonlinear and path-dependent rewards through a novel signature-transform-based approach. Leveraging the universal nonlinearity property of signatures, we approximate continuous path-dependent reward functionals by linear functionals in the signature space. This representation enables the use of efficient linear contextual bandit methods while preserving expressive sequential structure. Building on this framework, we propose DisSigUCB, a signature-based disjoint upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm. Under boundedness and non-degeneracy assumptions, we prove a high-probability data-dependent sublinear regret bound of order \(\tilde{\mathcal O}(\sqrt{(d+m)KT})\) where \(d\) is the context dimension and \(m\) is the signature feature dimension. Synthetic experiments and numerical applications on temperature sensor monitoring, sleep-stage classification, and hospital nurse staffing demonstrate that DisSigUCB consistently outperforms classical linear and kernelized contextual bandit baselines in nonlinear and path-dependent settings.

Existing approaches to controllable generation typically rely on fine-tuning, auxiliary networks, or test-time search. We show that flow matching admits a different control interface: adaptation through examples. For deterministic interpolants, the velocity field is solely governed by a conditional endpoint mean, so shifting this mean shifts the flow itself, and a pretrained model can be steered simply by changing the reference set it follows. We instantiate this idea in two forms. Reference-Mean Guidance is training-free. It computes a closed-form correction to the endpoint mean from a reference bank and applies it to a frozen FLUX.2-klein (4B) model, controlling color, identity, style, and structure while the prompt, seed, and weights stay fixed. Semi-Parametric Guidance builds the same principle into a trained model through an explicit mean anchor and a learned residual refiner, matching the quality of an unconditional DiT-B/4 on AFHQv2 while allowing the reference set to be swapped at inference time. Together, these results point to a broader direction: generative models that adapt through data rather than parameter updates.

This paper studies kernelized bandits (also known as Gaussian process bandits) in an adversarial environment, where the reward functions in a known reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) may be adversarially chosen at each round. We show that the exponential-weight algorithm achieves $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T \gamma_T})$ adversarial regret, where $T$ and $\gamma_T$ denote the number of total rounds and the maximum information gain, respectively. For squared exponential (SE) and $\nu$-Matérn kernels, we also show algorithm-independent lower bounds that guarantee the optimality of our algorithm up to polylogarithmic factors. Furthermore, we present a computationally efficient variant of our algorithm using Nyström approximation while maintaining nearly optimal regret guarantees.

Accurate next-day active fire forecasts can support early warning, disaster response, forest risk assessment, and downstream estimation of fire-related carbon emissions. Existing machine learning approaches to wildfire forecasting typically predict wildfire danger or fire probability on kilometre-scale daily grids, which is useful for regional warning but does not directly represent localized fire events. We propose Wildfire Ignition Set Predictor (WISP), a query-based model that reformulates next-day active fire forecasting as point-set prediction. From 48 hours of covariates including meteorology, satellite vegetation products, static land, and fire history, WISP predicts a fixed-size ranked set of future active fire cluster centres on a 375 m grid across globally distributed regions. The model is trained end-to-end with Hungarian matching; to address the conflicting roles of the classification score in assignment, ranking, and query activation, we use asymmetric classification-localization weighting in matching and loss. We further construct a globally distributed, hourly, multi-source benchmark for this task. On a held-out test set spanning fire regions worldwide, the best WISP variant achieves 38.2% average precision (AP) for ranked fire-centre detections, covers 53.4% of fire cluster mass weighted by fire radiative power (FRP), and localizes 54.1% of observed clusters within 5 km. These results establish sparse set prediction as a viable formulation for high-resolution wildfire forecasting and provide a benchmark for future work in this regime.

We participated in the Fifth UNLP shared task on multi-domain document understanding, where systems must answer Ukrainian multiple-choice questions from PDF collections and localize the supporting document and page. We propose a retrieval-augmented pipeline built around three ideas: contextual chunking of PDFs, question-aware dense retrieval and reranking conditioned on both the question and answer options, and constrained answer generation from a small set of reranked passages. Our final system uses Qwen3-Embedding-8B for retrieval, a fine-tuned Qwen3-Reranker-8B for passage ranking, and Qwen3-32B for answer selection. On a held-out split, reranking improves Recall@1 from 0.6957 to 0.7935, while using the top-2 reranked passages raises answer accuracy from 0.9348 to 0.9674. Our best leaderboard run reached 0.9452 on the public leaderboard and 0.9598 on the private leaderboard. Our results suggest that, under strict code-competition constraints, preserving document structure and making relevance estimation aware of the answer space are more effective than adding complex downstream heuristics.

In offline reinforcement learning (RL), we learn policies from fixed datasets without environment interaction. The major challenges are to provide guarantees on the (1) performance and (2) safety of the resulting policy. A technique called safe policy improvement (SPI) provides a performance guarantee: with high probability, the new policy outperforms a given baseline policy, which is assumed to be safe. Orthogonally, in the context of safe RL, a shield provides a safety guarantee by restricting the action space to those actions that are provably safe with respect to a given safety-relevant model. We integrate these paradigms by extending shielding to offline RL, relying solely on the available dataset and knowledge of safe and unsafe states. Then, we shield the policy improvement steps, guaranteeing, with high probability, a safe policy. Experimental results demonstrate that shielded SPI outperforms its unshielded counterpart, improving both average and worst-case performance, particularly in low-data regimes.

Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat forecasting task as a fixed mapping from history to target horizons. This induces temporal decoupling across future time points and limits the model's ability to adapt to the evolving context as forecasting progresses. In this work, we present LeapTS, a novel framework that reformulates time series forecasting as a dynamic scheduling process over the prediction horizon. Specifically, LeapTS organizes the forecasting process into multi-level decisions using: (1) the hierarchical controller to dynamically select the optimal prediction scale and advancement length at each step, and (2) continuous-time state evolution driven by neural controlled differential equations. Within this process, the controlled update mechanism explicitly couples the irregular temporal dynamics with discrete scheduling feedback. Extensive evaluations on both real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that LeapTS improves overall forecasting performance by at least 7.4% while achieving a 2.6$\times$ to 5.3$\times$ inference speedup over representative Transformer-based models. Furthermore, by explicitly tracing the scheduling trajectories, we reveal how the model autonomously adapts its forecasting behavior to capture non-stationary dynamics.

This paper aims at analyzing the regularization effect that data augmentation induces on supervised regression methods in the proportional regime, where the number of covariates grows proportionally to the number of samples. We provide a tight characterization of the test error, measured in mean squared error, in terms only of the population quantities of the true data, as well as first and second order statistics of the augmentation scheme. Our results are valid under misspecified feature maps, and for any network architecture where only the last readout layer is trained, and the rest of the network is either frozen or randomly initialized. We specify our results in the case of Gaussian data, and show that our asymptotic characterization is tight in this setting.

Offline-to-online learning aims to improve online decision-making by leveraging offline logged data. A central challenge in this setting is the distribution shift between offline and online environments. While some existing works attempt to leverage shifted offline data, they largely rely on UCB-type algorithms. Thompson sampling (TS) represents another canonical class of bandit algorithms, well known for its strong empirical performance and naturally suited to offline-to-online learning through its Bayesian formulation. However, unlike UCB indices, posterior samples in TS are not guaranteed to be optimistic with respect to the true arm means. This makes indices constructed from purely online and hybrid data difficult to compare and complicates their use. To address this issue, we propose sample-mean anchored TS (Anchor-TS), which introduces a novel median-based anchoring rule that defines the arm index as the median of an online posterior sample, a hybrid posterior sample, and the online sample mean. The median anchoring systematically corrects bias induced by distribution shift by mitigating over-estimation for suboptimal arms and under-estimation for optimal arms, while exploiting offline information to obtain more accurate estimates when the shift is small. We establish theoretical guarantees showing that the proposed algorithm safely leverages offline data to accelerate online learning, and quantifying how the degree of distribution shift and the size of offline data affect the resulting regret reduction. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent improvements of our algorithm over baselines.

Stochastic bilevel optimization (SBO) has become a standard framework for hyperparameter learning, data reweighting, representation learning, and data-mixture optimization in deep learning. Existing exact single-loop SBO methods and memory-efficient surrogate SBO methods either create severe memory pressure for large lower-level neural networks or lack competitive convergence guarantees under standard assumptions. In this paper, we propose BROS, a memory-efficient single-loop SBO method with the same convergence rate order as exact single-loop SBO methods. BROS performs lower and auxiliary updates in randomized subspaces with a Rademacher bi-probe correction that recovers an unbiased Hessian-action estimator. We prove that BROS preserves the $\mathcal O(\varepsilon^{-2})$ sample complexity of MA-SOBA for finding an $\varepsilon$-stationary point under only standard assumptions. Experiments on hyper-data cleaning, data-mixture learning, hyper-representation learning, and ViT sample reweighting show that BROS reduces peak memory by up to 44.9% while closely matching full-space baseline performance.