Papers

Reconstructing 3D fluid velocity fields from sparse 2D video observations is a highly ill-posed inverse problem, demanding both transport consistency with observed motion and physical validity under fluid laws. Existing methods typically impose these constraints through soft penalties, often leading to compromised accuracy and convergence issues. We introduce a reconstruction framework that structurally enforces both constraints. Specifically, we parameterize the reconstructed velocity using a continuous Divergence-Free Kernel representation, driving the advection of a Lagrangian 3D Gaussian Splatting representation. This formulation intrinsically guarantees both flow incompressibility and long-range transport coherence by construction. To enable the efficient optimization of such a constrained system, we introduce a novel Sliding Window scheme that propagates gradients over meaningful temporal horizons while maintaining tractable training costs. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both transport consistency and physical accuracy, enabling applications such as high-quality re-simulation and flow analysis.

Recent generative models can produce images that appear highly realistic, raising challenges in distinguishing real and AI-generated images. Yet existing detectors based on pre-trained feature extractors tend to over-rely on global semantics, limiting sensitivity to the critical micro-defects. In this work, we propose Micro-Defects expose Macro-Fakes (MDMF), a local distribution-aware detection framework that amplifies micro-scale statistical irregularities into macro-level distributional discrepancies. To avoid localized forensic cues being diluted by plain aggregation, we introduce a learnable Patch Forensic Signature that projects semantic patch embeddings into a compact forensic latent space. We then use Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) to quantify distributional discrepancies between generated and real images. Our theory-grounded analysis shows that patch-wise modeling yields provably larger discrepancies when localized forensic signals are present in generated images, enabling more reliable separation from real images. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MDMF consistently outperforms baseline detectors across multiple benchmarks, validating its general effectiveness. Project page: https://zbox1005.github.io/MDMF-project/

Large language models (LLMs) assist with writing, teaching, programming and decision-making, yet the computations underlying their behaviour remain largely opaque. Full access to every weight and activation does not by itself yield understanding: a microscopic description need not reveal how computation is organized at the level that governs behaviour. Complex systems are often understood instead through a few macroscopic variables whose dynamics capture the behaviour of interest, as temperature and pressure do for molecular motion in thermodynamics. Here we show that such an effective description of LLM computation can be learned directly from data. We introduce Representational Effective Theory (RET), a framework that learns low-dimensional macrostates and their dynamics from a model's hidden-state trajectories. These macrostates exhibit approximately closed dynamics and trace interpretable trajectories through reasoning. They also predict sycophancy and alignment faking early in generation, while steering the model towards selected macrostates produces corresponding changes in its reasoning. Together, these results show that LLM computation admits useful macroscopic descriptions that support interpretation, prediction and control.

Discrete flow models (DFMs) are a class of flexible generative models for generating discrete data, and diffusion large language models (dLLMs) can be viewed as a special case with a specific choice of a mixture path and a masked source distribution. While several recent works have explored reinforcement learning for dLLMs, its application to more general discrete flow models remains underexplored. In this work, we present discrete Flow-GRPO (dFlowGRPO), a unified reinforcement learning framework for discrete flow models that supports a broad family of probability paths and non-masked source distributions. We derive the full trajectory probability for DFMs and formulate the denoising process as a Markov decision process, enabling dFlowGRPO to incorporate information from both the associated conditional transition rates and the posterior model during reinforcement learning. We apply dFlowGRPO to FUDOKI, a recent multimodal discrete flow model, and evaluate it on both image generation and multimodal understanding tasks. Empirical results show that dFlowGRPO outperforms existing GRPO-type methods for dLLMs on text-to-image generation tasks and achieves performance competitive with continuous flow-based models trained using Flow-GRPO, while also demonstrating strong capabilities on understanding tasks.

Prediction-based approaches are widely used in neural architecture search (NAS), where a predictor estimates the performance of candidate architectures to guide selection. However, existing predictors are typically trained via supervised regression on limited samples, leading to overfitting and poor generalization to unseen architectures. In this work, we propose a fundamentally different formulation that models performance prediction as a conditional function inference problem using a Convolutional Neural Process (ConvNP) with meta-learning capabilities. Instead of fitting a fixed mapping to limited samples, our approach meta-learns to infer performance from partial observations by training with context-target splits across a group of synthesized tasks, explicitly optimizing for generalization under data scarcity and aligning the training procedure with the deployment setting in NAS. We further design simple yet effective meta-features for cell-based architectures and evaluate our method on NAS-Bench-101 and NAS-Bench-201. Extensive experiments show that our approach consistently improves top-K ranking quality and achieves the state-of-the-art architecture selection using limited samples.

Partial differential equation (PDE) solvers underpin modern computer graphics, geometry processing, and scientific computing. Classical Monte Carlo PDE solvers such as Walk-on-Spheres (WoS) provide mesh-free estimations that are unbiased, but with accuracy limited by sampling and numerical approximation. Learned solvers are fast but biased and brittle under distribution shift. We therefore present MC$^2$, a hybrid Neural Network-Monte Carlo PDE solver that treats a low-budget Monte Carlo solution as a structured estimator of the true field and learns a single-pass neural correction to recover a high-fidelity solution. MC$^2$ matches the accuracy of solutions using over $1000\times$ more Monte Carlo samples, outperforming all evaluated mesh-free classical, denoising, and neural-operator baselines. To enable reproducible study of finite-compute PDE solving, we additionally release PDEZoo, the largest standardized elliptic PDE benchmark to date: 2 million PDEs spanning 5 elliptic families and unlimited geometric compositions, with analytic ground truth and multi-budget Monte Carlo trajectories. Together, MC$^2$ and PDEZoo (1) empirically establish that finite-sample Monte Carlo error is structured, learnable, and correctable in a single forward pass, (2) show that we can solve PDEs $\sim$218$\times$ faster than WoS at matched accuracy and achieve a $\sim$171$\times$ reduction in inference time relative to state-of-the-art diffusion methods while attaining higher accuracy, and (3) provide the reproducible evaluation infrastructure the field has so far lacked. Code & Data: https://mc-error-correction.github.io

Mesh-based simulations provide high-fidelity solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), but achieving such accuracy typically requires fine meshes, leading to substantial computational overhead. Super-resolution techniques aim to mitigate this cost by reconstructing high-resolution (HR), high-fidelity solutions from low-cost, low-resolution (LR) counterparts. However, training neural networks for super-resolution often demands large amounts of expensive HR supervision data. To address this challenge, we propose SuperMeshNet, an HR data-efficient super-resolution framework for mesh-based simulations aided by message passing neural networks (MPNNs). At its core, SuperMeshNet introduces complementary learning, a semi-supervised approach that effectively leverages both 1) a small amount of paired LR-HR data and 2) abundant unpaired LR data via two jointly trained, complementary MPNN-based models. Additionally, our model is enriched by inductive biases, which are empirically shown to further improve super-resolution performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SuperMeshNet requires 90% less HR data to achieve even lower root mean square error (RMSE) than that of the fully supervised benchmark without the inductive biases. The source code and datasets are available at https://github.com/jykim-git/SuperMeshNet.git.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models achieve remarkable performance by sparsely activating specialized experts, yet their massive parameters in experts pose significant challenges for deployment. While low-rank quantization offers a promising route to compress MoE models, existing methods still incur nonnegligible memory overhead and inference latency. To address these limitations, we propose TileQ, a fine-tuning-free post-training quantization (PTQ) method that employs 2D-tiling structured low-rank quantization to share low-rank factors across both input and output dimensions of MoE experts. Furthermore, we introduce an efficient inference technique for TileQ that fuses multiple low-rank expert computations into a single-pass operation, significantly improving hardware utilization. Experiments show that TileQ cuts down additional memory usage up to 10$\times$ and reduces inference latency to $\sim$5% while preserving state-of-the-art accuracy.

We revisit combinatorial Thompson sampling (CTS) for semi-bandits with sleeping arms, where arm availability varies over time and actions must satisfy combinatorial constraints, as in wireless mesh routing with fluctuating link availability. Despite its practical relevance, CTS has been hindered by several long-standing problems: (i) the absence of worst-case regret guarantees in the semi-bandit setting even without sleeping arms, (ii) the lack of theory under adversarially varying availability, and (iii) the consistently weak empirical performance of CTS with Gaussian priors (CTS-G). This paper resolves these long-standing issues by providing the first worst-case regret analysis of CTS-G, proving an upper bound of $\tilde{O}(m\sqrt{NT})$ and a matching lower bound of $\tilde{\Omega}(m\sqrt{NT})$. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we further propose CL-SG, a simple CTS-G variant that samples a single shared Gaussian seed each round to coordinate exploration across arms. We show that CL-SG achieves an improved regret bound of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{mNT})$, together with a matching lower bound $\Omega(\sqrt{mNT})$. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CL-SG consistently outperforms strong baselines including CTS-G and CTS-B, and we open-source our implementation for reproducibility.

Spiking transformers have shown strong potential for neuromorphic vision, yet their token processing across multiple spiking steps still introduces substantial redundancy and inference cost. Existing token reduction methods mainly rely on response based cues, such as activation magnitude, firing statistics, or feature similarity. Although effective, these criteria do not explicitly characterize token importance from the perspective of temporally evolving class evidence. In spiking transformers, token representations are progressively formed across multiple spiking steps rather than determined at a single instant, suggesting that token importance should be evaluated not only by instantaneous responses but also by temporal uncertainty patterns. Our key observation is that tokens exhibit heterogeneous uncertainty trajectories over time, and that their temporally aggregated uncertainty statistics provide an effective cue for distinguishing informative tokens from redundant ones. Motivated by this, we propose Uncert, a training free and plug and play token importance estimation framework for spiking transformers. Specifically, Uncert models token wise class evidence with a Dirichlet distribution and summarizes each token temporal uncertainty using its mean and fluctuation across spiking steps, yielding an uncertainty aware importance score for token reduction during inference. Experiments on both static and neuromorphic benchmarks show that Uncert achieves favorable accuracy and efficiency tradeoffs, with the most consistent gains observed under token pruning. Further analysis reveals a clear empirical connection between temporal uncertainty patterns and token contribution, offering new insights into token dynamics in spiking transformers.

Direct diffusion modeling of high-resolution spatiotemporal fields is computationally challenging. Parameter-efficient primitives address this by representing high-dimensional data with a compact set of parameters. In this paper, we construct data-dependent tensor primitives without pretrained compression autoencoders. Our construction starts from Tucker decomposition, which captures low-rank multilinear structure through a core tensor and mode-wise factors. However, Tucker factors are non-unique: the same tensor can be represented by different rotated factors, which complicates generative modeling. We address this issue with orthogonal Procrustes (OP) alignment. Specifically, we select medoid anchor matrices from the data and align the factor matrices to resolve the gauge ambiguity. This yields matrix Grassmannian primitives and tensor Grassmannian primitives that are compact, data-adaptive, and directly decodable by explicit multilinear reconstruction. Theoretically, we prove that the proposed primitive maps are homeomorphisms between low-rank tensors and their corresponding primitive spaces, certifying that the representations are non-degenerate and topologically faithful. Building on these primitives, we propose *Diffusion in Aligned Tensor Space* (DiffATS), a generative framework that trains diffusion models directly on aligned tensor primitives. Across images, videos, and PDE solutions, DiffATS achieves strong unconditional and conditional generation performance while compressing original data by $3.9\times$ to $210\times$, without relying on any pretrained deep compression autoencoders.

We study online multicalibration beyond the worst-case. We give a single, efficient algorithm which dynamically interpolates between benign and worst-case sequences by adaptively refining a dyadic grid of prediction values. Its error is controlled by the number of leaves in the refinement tree. Our analysis recovers the known $\widetilde O(T^{2/3})$ worst-case-optimal rate for online multicalibration, while simultaneously automatically adapting to easier instances: in the marginal stochastic setting it obtains a rate of $\widetilde O(\sqrt T)$, and for piecewise-stationary means with $J$ segments its rate is $\widetilde O(\sqrt{JT})$. More generally, the rate depends on a threshold-complexity measure of the predictable mean process relative to the group family. We show that this dependence is tight up to logarithmic factors.

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is widely used for task-specific adaptation, yet recent work shows it systematically undermines reasoning generalization. We argue the root cause is not memorization itself, but its target: vanilla SFT drives models to exploit and memorize spurious surface correlations in problem-solution pairs, leaving them brittle to superficial input variations. To address this, we propose Theorem-SFT, which reorients supervision toward explicit theorem application by teaching models how rules are invoked rather than what answers look like. Theorem-SFT yields consistent gains across benchmarks and model families: +8.8% on MATH (LLaMA3.2-3B-Instruct) and +20.27% on GeoQA (Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct) without modality-specific re-training. Fine-tuning MLP layers alone matches full-layers performance, implicating feed-forward components as the primary locus of reasoning rules. Our findings reframe the debate: Generalization failures stem not from memorization as a mechanism, but from memorizing the wrong inductive targets.

We introduce a use of the \(M\)-cover (or \(M\)-layer) transform for machine learning. The method replicates a model \(M\) times, but instead of coupling the copies through parameter averaging or an explicit attractive force, as in replicated SGD or Elastic SGD, it rewires the contexts in which local learning messages are computed. Each local loss is evaluated on a routed model whose parameters are drawn from different copies according to permutations sampled from a structured mixing kernel \(Q\). Training then uses the original local update rule, while the resulting learning messages are redistributed across the copies through these routed computational paths. Thus \(Q\) defines a topology for message transport and controls the long-loop structure of the lifted factor graph. We formulate this construction for perceptrons, committee machines, and multilayer perceptrons, showing that the same principle applies from discrete models to differentiable neural networks. The resulting framework provides a mechanism for improving generalization through structured message sharing rather than replica collapse or parameter-space coupling.

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) provide a simpleframework for learning world models by predicting future latent representations.However, JEPA training is subject to a bias-variance tradeoff.Without sufficient structural constraints, excessive representationalvariance causes the model to collapse to trivial solutions.The recent LeWorldModel (LeWM) shows that this issue can be alleviated bysimply constraining latent embeddings with an isotropic Gaussian prior.However, latent representations inherently lie on low-dimensional manifoldswithin a high-dimensional ambient space, and enforcing an isotropic Gaussianprior directly in this ambient space introduces an overly strong bias.In this work, we propose ame, which seeks a favorable operatingpoint on the bias-variance frontier by applying Gaussian constraints inmultiple random subspaces rather than in the originalembedding space.This design relaxes the global constraint while preserving itsanti-collapse effect, leading to a better balance between trainingstability and representation flexibility.Extensive experiments across fourcontinuous-control environments demonstrate that consistentlyoutperforms LeWM with very clear margins.Our method is simple yet effective, and serves as a strong baseline for future JEPA-based world model research.fdefinedeeemodeThe code is available at https://github.com/intcomp/Sub-JEPA.

Large language models fail at counting how many times a word repeats in a list, even though they perform well on far harder reasoning tasks. These failures are commonly attributed to limitations in internal count tracking. We show this attribution is wrong. Linear probes on the residual stream decode the correct count with near-perfect accuracy at every post-embedding layer and they do so even at the exact layers where the wrong answer crystallizes in the output. Attention patterns show no evidence of collapse over repeated tokens and tokenization artifacts account for none of the failure. Instead, a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) block at roughly 85–93% network depth overwrites the correctly-encoded count with a fixed wrong answer. Ablating this block changes the wrong output and establishes it as causally responsible for the failure. The block fires on the space-separated repeated-word format and is absent for repeated digit-tokens. The pattern holds across Llama-3.2 (1B and 3B) and Qwen2.5 (1.5B, 3B and 7B) at consistent relative depth. The count is represented correctly and a specific computation prevents it from reaching the output, so representation failures and routing failures require different interventions.

Muon and related norm-constrained matrix optimizers have become central to large-scale learning problems. They are formulated as a linear maximization oracle (LMO) over an ambient matrix-norm ball in unconstrained Euclidean space. However, these do not generalize cleanly to manifold-valued parameters such as low-rank factorizations, orthogonality constraints, or symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices. Naively restricting the Muon LMO to the tangent space (i) breaks quotient symmetries and (ii) couples the tangent-space constraint with an ambient norm bound, thereby obstructing closed-form solutions on various manifolds of interest. We resolve both issues with a single observation: every Riemannian metric canonically lifts a unitarily invariant Euclidean norm to an intrinsic norm on each tangent space, and the resulting intrinsic norm constrained LMO is symmetry preserving. Building on this, we introduce intrinsic Muon (iMuon), a unified framework that yields closed-form updates on the fixed-rank, SPD, Stiefel, and Grassmann manifolds for any unitarily invariant norm, including the spectral, Frobenius, and nuclear norms. We establish convergence guarantees for both deterministic and stochastic iMuon with rate constants that depend only on the manifold dimension. Notably, on the fixed-rank manifold this constant depends only on the rank, making the rate independent of factor conditioning and removing the runtime factor-rescaling required by prior work. Experiments on LoRA finetuning of LLMs, image classification, and subspace learning illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

One-step generative modeling has emerged as a leading approach for amortizing the inference cost of diffusion and flow-matching models. Among distillation-free methods, MeanFlow training is notoriously unstable, with non-decreasing loss and unbounded gradient variance. In this work, we establish a theory that attributes this pathology to a misuse of the conditional velocity field. We show that the conditional velocity plays two distinct statistical roles in the loss: both as an unbiased regression target and as a Monte Carlo control variate in a Jacobi-vector product, with the original MeanFlow loss assigning the wrong coefficient to the latter. We derive the optimal coefficient in closed form and show that a family of fixes in concurrent works corresponds to different practical realizations of the same optimum. A controlled sweep of this coefficient on two-dimensional benchmarks and on a latent Diffusion Transformer recovers the predicted bias-variance ordering. Our DiT experiment also reveals a quantitative FID-MSE landscape mismatch. Specifically, although the gradient-MSE is minimized at an interior coefficient value near $\beta\!=\!0.94$, the coefficient that minimizes FID prefers to use conditional velocity directly at the unbiased corner. Our analysis therefore explains why MeanFlow is unstable and unifies its concurrent remedies, and shows that the variance-optimal coefficient need not coincide with the quality-optimal one.

The increasing deployment of Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices has accelerated the use of distributed learning frameworks, where data remains local while model updates are shared across decentralized systems. Although this reduces centralized data collection, it introduces privacy risks through the exchange of gradients, model parameters, and intermediate representations. A variety of privacy-preserving techniques have been proposed to address these risks, including differential privacy, cryptographic methods, and lightweight system-level approaches. However, existing surveys often evaluate these methods in isolation and lack a unified framework for comparing their effectiveness under realistic attack models and IoT resource constraints. This paper presents a structured analysis of privacy-preserving techniques for distributed learning in IoT environments. A unified threat model is introduced that captures model inversion, membership inference, gradient leakage, and communication-based attacks. Building on this model, an evaluation framework is developed to compare methods in terms of both privacy robustness and system-level efficiency, including computational, memory, and communication overhead. Using this framework, representative approaches including differential privacy, homomorphic encryption, secure multi-party computation, distributed selective stochastic gradient descent, and Bloom Filter-based methods are analyzed. The results highlight a fundamental trade-off between privacy strength and system efficiency. In particular, Bloom Filter-based encodings are shown to provide lightweight privacy through collision-induced ambiguity while maintaining low computational and communication overhead. The paper provides a unified perspective on privacy-preserving design choices for distributed learning in IoT systems.

Post-training alignment algorithms are predominantly evaluated as black boxes, obscuring how they reshape language models' internal computations. We present a systematic mechanistic analysis of six preference-optimization methods: PPO, DPO, SimPO, ORPO, GRPO, and KTO across three open-weight model families. By integrating layer-wise linear probing, Sparse Autoencoders, and crosscoders, we localize preference representations and quantify alignment-induced geometric transformations in latent space. We find that preference signals consistently concentrate in early–mid or mid–late layers, but different objectives induce qualitatively distinct representational shifts. KTO and GRPO enhance linear separability through constructive feature sharing and sparse, high-salience recruitment. In contrast, DPO and ORPO degrade separability via non-constructive geometric rotation and feature attenuation, while PPO and SimPO largely preserve baseline geometry. These transformations exhibit architecture-dependent variability, demonstrating that behavioral alignment does not imply uniform internal restructuring. Our findings establish alignment as a heterogeneous intervention, motivate standardized feature-level auditing for safety and interpretability, and highlight the need for mechanism-aware optimization objectives.

Atmospheric visibility is a critical variable for transportation safety and air quality management, however, accurate prediction remains challenging due to the complex interactions between meteorological conditions and air pollutants, as well as the rarity of low-visibility events. This study introduces a machine learning framework to nowcast visibility in six major South Korean cities. To handle the imbalance in the 2018-2020 training data, we applied the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique with Nominal and Continuous (SMOTENC) and Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN). An ensemble approach combining machine learning and deep learning models was then used and evaluated on a 2021 test dataset. The results revealed a marked decline in predictive performance in the test set compared to the cross-validation phase. This degradation was attributed to a distributional shift between training and testing periods, which was quantitatively confirmed by measuring the Wasserstein distance of the most influential feature identified by SHAP analysis. In general, this study presents a methodology that aims to simultaneously address the dual challenges of data imbalance and temporal distributional shifts, and emphasizes the necessity of accounting for evolving external environmental factors when implementing nowcasting models on time-series data.

Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of Chlamydia trachomatis infection may enable optimal use of molecular testing in resource-aware screening. We evaluate the feasibility of pre-test risk stratification (PTRS) using machine-learning models trained on routinely available, non-invasive clinical data. A curated dataset of 93 urine samples with PCR reference labels was analyzed using three feature groups: patient-reported history and symptoms, urine biomarkers from standard urinalysis, and their combination. Five supervised classifiers were evaluated using stratified 5-fold cross-validation with out-of-fold probability estimates. Performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and threshold-dependent metrics, with uncertainty quantified via bootstrap confidence intervals. Models using only patient-reported data showed moderate discrimination (AUC up to 0.72). Urine biomarker-based models demonstrated slightly lower peak discrimination but more consistent performance, with ensemble methods yielding the strongest results. Combining feature groups marginally increased the peak AUC and reduced performance variability across models, indicating improved robustness. Findings indicate that urine biomarkers provide a reliable predictive signal for PTRS that is complementary to patient-reported information, while feature integration enhances robustness. This work supports the integration of non-invasive, routinely available information for PTRS into screening workflows, including decentralized or home-based PCR contexts, to optimize testing prioritization.

Smartphone scams are increasingly prevalent and typically manifest as multi-stage, cross-application processes with gradually emerging intent. Effective intervention thus requires anticipating scams before the intent becomes explicit. This is inherently challenging, as decisions must rely on partial trajectories with temporally distributed evidence. In this paper, we propose ORACLE Online Reasoning for Anticipating Cross-temporal Latent thrEats, the first agentic framework for early scam anticipation from streaming app-usage trajectories. To support this setting, we curate a real-world long-horizon benchmark of streaming app-usage trajectories, covering 12 scam types, spanning extended periods (15 days on average), involving diverse applications (95 apps), and interleaving normal and scam behaviors. To address fragmented evidence, we introduce a self-evolving context manager that adaptively consolidates entity-centric interactions over time, enabling more effective reconstruction of cross-temporal evidence from partial observations. To enhance sensitivity to latent early-stage signals, we propose an on-policy self-distillation scheme in which a teacher model, conditioned on summarized anti-scam reflections and clues by skills, supervises a student model without access to such reflections. This scheme thereby distills evidence-informed knowledge and improves recognition of emerging fraud patterns from partial trajectories. Experiments show that \method{} consistently improves early scam anticipation, yielding timely warnings while reducing false alerts in realistic streaming scenarios.

Activation steering offers a lightweight way to control LLMs without retraining, but its effectiveness varies sharply across concepts. Prior work often reads this variability as evidence that many concepts are not captured by a single steering direction. We argue instead that much of it reflects search difficulty: a useful rank-1 intervention often exists, but finding it can be expensive. We formalize rank-1 steering as a budget-constrained optimization over intervention layer and coefficient. Across concepts and model families, prompt-boundary directional alignment predicts where effective interventions occur, enabling geometry-guided search that reaches high utility with substantially fewer evaluations, reducing the trials needed to recover 95% of best-found utility by 39.8% on average across three model families. To explain why some concepts remain expensive even under better search, we introduce concept granularity, a measure of directional heterogeneity across contrastive contexts. Granularity distinguishes concepts whose difference vectors share a stable global direction from those where prompts agree locally within each input but the utility-maximizing direction rotates systematically across inputs. Higher granularity is associated with slower convergence and lower best-found performance (Pearson $r{=}0.44$ with trials-to-95%, $r{=}{-}0.46$ with best-found utility, both $p<0.001$). We present GRACE, a Granularity- and Representation-Aware Concept Engineering framework that uses activation geometry to diagnose the dominant source of steering difficulty, select the appropriate remedy, and allocate optimization effort efficiently. Our results shift the frame from "when does rank-1 fail?" to "when is rank-1 cheap and stable?", turning activation geometry from a descriptive tool into an actionable prior for LLM control.

We present TailedTS, a large-scale benchmark dataset derived from Wikipedia hourly page view observations throughout 2024, specifically designed to test time series forecasting models under heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and non-Gaussian conditions. The dataset comprises approximately 24.69 billion data points spanning roughly 3 million unique Wikipedia pages per month, stored in high-efficiency Apache Parquet format. Wikipedia traffic follows a pronounced power-law distribution where roughly 5% of pages account for over 70% of total page views, creating a natural and rigorous testbed for model robustness against extreme volatility that are absent from or underrepresented in existing benchmarks such as M4, M5, and UCI electricity datasets. TailedTS enables several research tasks. First, we introduce a periodicity quantification framework based on sparse autoregression with sparsity and non-negativity constraints, revealing that frequently-viewed pages exhibit significantly weaker periodic structure than their less-viewed counterparts, showing direct implications for server allocation and traffic forecasting on large digital platforms. Second, we provide standardized prediction benchmarks evaluated under a suite of non-Gaussian loss functions, including $\ell_1$-norm, Huber, quantile, and $\ell_p$-norm losses, demonstrating that standard Gaussian-based estimators degrade substantially on high-volume page categories, while robust alternatives provide consistent gains across all traffic scales. TailedTS is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17070469.

Efficient long-context inference in Large Language Models (LLMs) is severely constrained by the Key-Value (KV) cache memory wall, yet existing pruning methods force a choice between low-latency heuristics that sacrifice precision and high-precision reconstruction methods that incur prohibitive prefilling overhead. To bridge this scoring-cost–accuracy gap, we propose ProxyKV, a cross-model proxy pruning framework that offloads importance scoring to a lightweight intra-family Small-Model Proxy executed asynchronously to the Large-Model Target. To bridge the architectural gap between heterogeneous models, we design the HybridAxialMapper, which disentangles temporal feature extraction from cross-head alignment, together with a Multi-Granularity Hybrid Loss that shifts the learning objective from rigid regression to relative ranking consistency. Across the Llama-3.1, Qwen-2.5, and Qwen-3 families spanning targets from 7B up to 32B parameters on LongBench, SCBench, and RULER, ProxyKV matches KVZip on aggregate (recovering $\sim$$98.7\%$ of its mean accuracy) while delivering up to a $3.21\times$ prefilling speedup on Llama-3.1-8B (dual-GPU; $\sim$$1.5\times$ shared single-GPU) and sustaining the speedup at contexts up to 170k tokens on Qwen-2.5-7B.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to real-world forecasting tasks, yet evaluating their true predictive capability remains compromised by pre-training data contamination and look-ahead leakage in automated search. Existing benchmarks either rely on static contexts, restrict evaluations to narrow environments, or fail to audit auxiliary textual events for future information leakage. To establish a rigorous evaluation paradigm, we propose LEAF, the first living benchmark for event-augmented forecasting tasks, including trend, event, and time series forecasting. LEAF couples a recursive retrieval agent system with dual-agent cross-validation to gather comprehensive, relevant, and temporally aligned auxiliary context. A comprehensive audit across 500 tasks by 47 domain specialists demonstrates that our pipeline suppresses future information leakage from 8.6% to 1.6%. Across extensive evaluations of 16 frontier proprietary and open-weight models on our benchmark, we show that LLMs effectively extract signals from verified events to boost trend and event forecasting.

Public procurement is vulnerable to error, fraud, and corruption, particularly as high transaction volumes overwhelm oversight. While research often focuses on tender-stage anomalies, post-award payment monitoring remains underexplored. Since labelled datasets are rare and methods like Benford's Law face restrictive assumptions, there is a need for interpretable, unsupervised frameworks for high-volume procurement oversight and decision support. This paper introduces the Structural Heterogeneity Index (SHI), a composite statistic for one-dimensional samples, and its payment-specific instantiation, the Payment Heterogeneity Index (PHI), characterising payment structure and latent regimes. It incorporates Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) parameters alongside non-parametric statistics, integrating four interpretable components: modality, asymmetry, tail behaviour, and structural dispersion. Uniquely, the tail-behaviour component captures both distributional heaviness and extreme-value concentration, while structural-dispersion combines the variability, prevalence, and separation of latent payment regimes. Applied to UK municipal procurement data, PHI identifies a financially significant cohort (0.6% of suppliers; 10.1% of high-volume vendors) with structurally distinct payment patterns. Statistical testing further supports these differences, and targeted human verification confirms the plausibility of prioritised cases. Comparative analysis shows PHI reveals regime separation obscured by the Coefficient of Variation ($\rho = 0.310$). PHI provides a transparent, decomposable, and computationally lightweight framework for procurement integrity oversight and targeted audit prioritisation.

Large foundation models (FMs) are transforming Earth science by integrating heterogeneous multimodal data, such as multi-platform imagery, gridded reanalysis data, diverse geophysical and geochemical observations, and domain-specific text, to support tasks ranging from basic perception to advanced scientific discovery. This paper provides a unified review of Earth science foundation models (Earth FMs) through two complementary dimensions: depth, which traces the evolution of model capabilities from perception to multimodal reasoning and agentic scientific workflows, and breadth, which summarizes their expanding applications across the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, anthroposphere, and cryosphere, as well as coupled Earth system processes. Using this framework, we review representative multimodal Earth foundation models and compile more than 200 datasets and benchmarks spanning diverse Earth science tasks and modalities. We further discuss key challenges in multimodal data heterogeneity, scientific reliability and continual updating, scalability and sustainability, and the transition from foundation models to agentic and embodied Earth intelligence, and outline future directions toward more integrated, trustworthy, and actionable AI Earth scientists. Overall, this paper offers a structured roadmap for understanding the development of Earth foundation models from both capability depth and application breadth.

Electrocardiography (ECG) is the clinical standard for cardiac assessment but requires dedicated hardware that does not scale to daily-life monitoring. Photoplethysmography (PPG) is ubiquitous in wearables but lacks ECG-specific diagnostic morphology and is corrupted by motion and sensor noise. PPG-to-ECG generation aims to bridge this gap by recovering electrical morphology and timing from peripheral pulse signals. However, existing methods largely rely on statistical alignment and data-driven generation. They fail to explicitly structure the latent space around physiology-aware electro-hemodynamic factors and lack constraints from forward physiological dynamics. To address these challenges, we propose PPG2ECG, a physiology-guided latent rectified flow framework. PPG2ECG introduces an electro-hemodynamic simulator that co-models ECG and PPG through shared cardiac phase dynamics. Guided by this simulator, a Physiology-Aware AutoEncoder learns a structured electro-hemodynamic latent space. Then we integrate this simulator guidance into a PPG-conditioned latent rectified flow, enforcing ECG-side morphology consistency and ECG-to-PPG forward hemodynamic consistency during generative transport. Experiments on the large-scale MC-MED dataset demonstrate that PPG2ECG significantly improves PPG-to-ECG generation and downstream cardiovascular disease classification, proving its ability to generate ECGs that are both signal-faithful and physiologically plausible under the ECG-to-PPG hemodynamic pathway