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Saturday 9 May

Machine Learning

From Mechanistic to Compositional Interpretability

Mechanistic interpretability aims to explain neural model behaviour by reverse-engineering learned computational structure into human-understandable components. Without a formal framework, however, mechanistic explanations cannot be objectively verified, compared, or composed. We introduce compositional interpretability, a category-theoretic framework grounded in the principles of compositionality and minimum description length. Compositional interpretations are pairs of syntactic and semantic mappings that must commute to enforce consistency between a model's decomposition and its observed behaviour. We deconstruct explanation quality into measures of faithfulness and complexity to cast interpretability as a constrained optimisation problem, and introduce compressive refinement to systematically restructure models into simpler parts without altering their function. Finally, we derive a parsimony criterion under which syntactic compression theoretically guarantees more concise, human-aligned explanations. Our framework situates prominent mechanistic methods as subclasses of refinement, and clarifies why their compressibility heuristics tend to align with human interpretability. Our work provides a measurable, optimisable blueprint for automating the discovery and evaluation of mechanistic explanations.
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All authors Ward Gauderis, Thomas Dooms, Steven T. Homer, Kola Ayonrinde, Geraint A. Wiggins

Machine Learning

When and Why Grouping Attention Heads Accelerates Muon Optimization

Muon orthogonalizes matrix updates, but multi-head attention naturally operates at the level of heads. This granularity mismatch raises the question of whether Muon should be applied to the full attention projection, to individual heads, or to intermediate head groups. We study this question through a one-step descent comparison between full-matrix Muon and group-wise Muon. Our analysis reveals a trade-off between the group-wise whitening gain from group-wise updates and the grouping-induced norm cost, an additional update-norm cost caused by replacing full-matrix whitening with group-wise whitening. Motivated by this trade-off, we propose Group Muon, which treats head group size and grouping rule as optimizer hyperparameters. On GPT-2 Small trained on FineWeb, appropriate grouping improves validation loss over both full-QKV Muon and fully head-wise MuonSplit.
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All authors Hongtao Zhang, Wenjie Zhou, Wei Chen, Xueqi Cheng

Machine Learning

Physics-Informed Neural PDE Solvers via Spatio-Temporal MeanFlow

Deep learning paradigms, such as PINNs and neural operators, have significantly advanced the solving of PDEs. However, they often struggle to capture the continuous integral nature of physical systems, relying either on pointwise residuals that ignore the integral perspective or on pre-discretized temporal grids. Drawing inspiration from MeanFlow, a continuous-time integrator recently developed to efficiently solve generative ODEs, we introduce Spatio-Temporal MeanFlow, which functions as a novel PDE solver learning the finite-interval evolution of physical states. By substituting the generative velocity field with the physical PDE operator, we transform multi-step numerical integration into an efficient prediction with a freely controllable integration length. Crucially, we extend the original MeanFlow constraint from the temporal to the spatio-temporal domain, coupling time evolution with spatial consistency. This yields a unified framework naturally accommodating both time-dependent and stationary PDEs. Comprehensive experiments on benchmarks demonstrate that our approach achieves superior accuracy and inference efficiency over representative baselines. Furthermore, the proposed integral constraint enables excellent generalization to out-of-distribution initial conditions and varying spatial resolutions.
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Machine Learning

Transformer autoencoder with local attention for sparse and irregular time series with application on risk estimation

This paper introduces a framework specifically designed for sparse and irregular time series {risk estimation}. It is based on a Transformer Autoencoder with local attention, which leverages the powerful pattern identification capabilities of transformers complemented by traditional data cleaning and normalization methods. It efficiently captures relevant patterns within irregular sequences suffering from sparse data collection, benefiting from the discriminative ability of the local attention mechanism. The proposed framework is applied to a real-world case study, on the risk estimation of non-technical losses in electrical power systems in a wide area in Greece. Non-technical losses in electrical power systems, primarily stemming from electricity theft, pose significant economic and operational challenges. Detecting these anomalies is particularly challenging due to the inherent sparse and irregular nature of real-world data collection practices. Traditional risk estimation methods struggle with effectively capturing long-range dependencies and robustly handling such data characteristics. We demonstrate that our approach effectively yields highly discriminative latent features, which results in more consistent risk estimation compared with existing state-of-the-art and widely used methods. It achieves high recall and precision, meeting the critical objectives of the problem. As such, our solution offers a robust and effective tool for risk detection in irregular time series datasets.
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Machine Learning

Non-Monotonic Latency in Apple MPS Decoding: KV Cache Interactions and Execution Regimes

Autoregressive inference is typically assumed to scale predictably with decoding length, with latency increasing smoothly as generated sequence length grows. In this work, we identify unexpected non-monotonic latency behavior in the Apple MPS backend, where latency changes abruptly across nearby decoding configurations during transformer decoding. Using multiple model families (GPT-2, BLOOM, and OPT), we observe latency spikes of up to 21x within specific decoding-budget intervals, followed by recovery at neighboring configurations. Controlled experiments show that these anomalies originate primarily during the decode phase rather than prefill, are not explained by memory pressure alone, and remain absent on CPU and NVIDIA CUDA backends under identical conditions. We further show that key-value (KV) cache interacts strongly with these pathological execution regimes: KV caching remains beneficial overall, but its practical speedup collapses sharply within anomalous configurations, while cache-disabled decoding still exhibits residual non-monotonic behavior. These findings suggest that autoregressive decoding on MPS enters discrete execution regimes that are not captured by coarse-grained benchmarking, highlighting the importance of hardware-aware evaluation for long-context inference.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Enhancing Adversarial Robustness in Network Intrusion Detection: A Layer-wise Adaptive Regularization Approach

The new wave of adversarial attacks that utilize gradient-related vulnerabilities in neural network-based classifiers makes Network Intrusion Detection Systems more open to such threats. Although state-of-the-art adversarial training methods have shown promising results in producing more robust classifiers, their interpretability and defense ability are limited due to their lack of understanding of how adversarial attacks propagate in different layers of network classifiers. In this paper, we present an insightful approach, called LARAR (Layer-wise Adversarial Robustness using Adaptive Regularization), that incorporates additional layer-wise vulnerability analysis and adaptive weighting in conventional adversarial training methods. Additionally, we utilize 'Auxiliary Classifiers' in our approach. LARAR provides interpretable layer-wise vulnerability scores, achieves a clean accuracy of 95.01%, and provides better robustness against adversarial attacks (FGSM, PGD, and transfer attacks) on the UNSW-NB15 dataset. Through the identification of vulnerable layers, the proposed framework reduces computational complexity and enables the early detection of adversarial samples, thus enhancing the effectiveness and interpretability of adversarial defense mechanisms in NIDS.
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All authors Hira Nasir, Eiman Javed, Balawal Shabir, Zunera Jalil, Ahmad Mohsin

Machine Learning

Shapley Regression for Rare Disease Diagnosis Support: a case study on APDS

Activated PI3K8 Syndrome (APDS) is a rare genetic immune disorder caused by variants in PIK3CD or PIK3R1, with highly heterogeneous symptoms that often delay diagnosis. Early recognition is hampered by overlapping clinical presentations and limited clinician awareness, motivating systematic, data-driven approaches to detect APDS-associated phenotypic patterns in routine electronic health records. Traditional linear scoring systems cannot capture complex symptom interactions, while deep learning models, though expressive, often lack interpretability. To bridge this gap, we propose Shapley regression, a novel game-theoretic model replacing the linear predictor with a k-additive cooperative game, explicitly modeling co-occurrence of symptoms while maintaining the transparency and convexity of logistic regression. We carry out an empirical study of our lightweight method on eight public biomedical datasets, showing that a 2-additive model with $l_{2}$ regularization achieves an optimal trade-off between predictive power and noise robustness. We also apply it to a real-world cohort of 222 patients, on which Shapley regression accurately distinguished APDS cases from matched controls, confirming and validating phenotypes known to be associated with APDS, and facilitating the exploration of pairwise interactions between symptoms, validated by clinical experts.
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All authors Safa Alsaidi, Tomás Brogueira, Nizar Mahlaoui, Marc Vincent, Guilherme Pelegrina, Nicolas Garcelon, Adrien Coulet, Miguel Couceiro

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

FragileFlow: Spectral Control of Correct-but-Fragile Predictions for Foundation Model Robustness

Robust adaptation of LLMs and VLMs is often evaluated by average accuracy or average consistency under perturbations. However, these averages can hide a structured failure mode: a prediction may remain correct while probability mass already flows from particular true classes toward systematic wrong competitors near the decision boundary. In this paper, we formalize this phenomenon as margin-aware error flow and introduce FragileFlow, a plug-in regularizer that uses a calibrated margin buffer to identify correct-but-fragile predictions and organize their off-class probability mass into a class-wise vulnerable-risk matrix. Theoretically, we provide the first PAC-Bayes upper bound for this margin-aware error-flow object, showing how empirical spectral control yields a conservative route to deterministic worst-class robustness under a stability condition. Experiments on multiple-choice LLM benchmarks and few-shot CLIP adaptation show that FragileFlow consistently improves the proposed theory-facing risk measures over matched baselines, yields perturbed worst-class accuracy gains in most settings, and preserves clean accuracy across comparisons.
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All authors Zhuoyun Li, Boxuan Wang, Jinwei Hu, Xiaowei Huang, Yi Dong

Machine Learning

Bilinear autoencoders find interpretable manifolds

Sparse autoencoders have become a standard tool for uncovering interpretable latent representations in neural networks. Yet salient concepts often span manifolds that current linear methods cannot capture without post hoc analysis. This paper uses quadratic latents to close this gap: we implement these with bilinear autoencoders, which decompose activations into low-rank quadratic forms, compose linearly in weight space, and admit input-independent geometric analysis. This qualitative difference in what concepts quadratic latents can detect challenges the standard linear representation hypothesis. Our experiments and visualisations show that multi-dimensional geometries are highly prevalent and that composite latents capture them well, systematically improving reconstruction error in language models. Furthermore, we show that autoencoders with varying geometric priors recover the same input subspace despite their dictionary entries being distinct. Practically, these models serve as an unsupervised tool for manifold discovery, which we demonstrate through an interactive online visualizer for Qwen 3.5. This is a step toward nonlinear but mathematically tractable latent representations whose composition is expressive and interpretable by design.
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All authors Thomas Dooms, Ward Gauderis, Geraint Wiggins, Jose Oramas

Machine Learning

Machine Learning Research Has Outpaced Its Communication Norms and NeurIPS Should Act

Machine learning research has grown exponentially while its communication norms have not. We argue NeurIPS should adopt explicit, measurable writing standards. We analyze 2.8 million arXiv papers (1991-2025), 24,772 NeurIPS papers (1987-2024), and 24.5 million PubMed papers (1990-2025), applying classical readability scores, the Hohmann writing style suite (including sensational language), acronym density and reuse, an LLM as judge readability protocol, and citations from OpenAlex and Semantic Scholar. Four patterns emerge. First, NeurIPS abstracts score harder to read on every classical readability metric: Flesch Reading Ease falls from about 24 in 1987 to 13 in 2024, and sensational language rises by about 50 percent in NeurIPS abstracts between 2015 and 2024. Second, acronym density in NeurIPS titles has grown from 0.33 per 100 words in 1987 to 3.21 in 2024, and about 89 percent of NeurIPS acronyms are used fewer than ten times, ten points above the science-wide baseline. Third, more readable NeurIPS papers tend to receive more citations, suggesting readability and impact are correlated and that less readable papers risk remaining fragmented. LLM as judge scores rate NeurIPS abstracts as roughly stable from 1987 to 2022, with early signs of improvement thereafter, a pattern that disagrees with every classical readability metric and raises a design question for enforcement: is the target reader a human or an LLM? Lastly, NeurIPS volume has grown roughly 50-fold between 1987 and 2024. Assuming the goal is to optimise for human readers, we propose seven standards NeurIPS could pilot at NeurIPS 2027: an acronym budget with a venue-approved term list, a human readability threshold, stricter citation standards, standalone visual elements, a plain language summary, a pre-registered acronym glossary, and open source audit tooling.
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Machine Learning

Compact SO(3) Equivariant Atomistic Foundation Models via Structural Pruning

SO(3) equivariant graph neural networks have become the dominant paradigm for atomistic foundation models, achieving high accuracy and data efficiency by building rotational symmetry directly into the architecture. Yet the computational cost of their higher-order tensor operations creates a tough trade-off between model accuracy and inference efficiency. In this paper, we propose a structural pruning method for SO(3) equivariant atomistic foundation models to bridge this accuracy-efficiency gap. The pruning is applied along the channel and order dimensions, with each irreducible representation kept or removed as a complete block, thereby retaining SO(3) equivariance. Starting from a large checkpoint, the pruned model substantially reduces the inference cost while retaining higher accuracy than an independently trained small model. The pruned MACE-MP model outperforms the official from-scratch trained small model on 7 of 9 metrics on the Matbench Discovery leaderboard. In terms of efficiency, compressed MACE-MP and MACE-OFF models contain 1.5$\times$ to 4$\times$ fewer parameters and require 2.5$\times$ to 4$\times$ less pre-training compute than training a small model from scratch. For downstream applications, fine-tuning the pruned model reduces energy and force errors by 70.1% and 34.4% compared to training task-specific models from scratch across eight representative downstream datasets. We demonstrate that the method generalizes to other SO(3) equivariant architectures (SevenNet, eSCN) and can be combined with quantization and knowledge distillation for further gains.
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All authors Chen Wang, Siyu Hu, Guangming Tan, Weile Jia

Machine Learning

Discrete Flow Matching: Convergence Guarantees Under Minimal Assumptions

Flow Matching has recently emerged as a popular class of generative models for simulating a target distribution $\mu_1$ from samples drawn from a source distribution $\mu_0$. This framework relies on a fixed coupling between $\mu_0$ and $\mu_1$, and on a deterministic or stochastic bridge to define an interpolating process between the two distributions. The time marginals of this process can then be approximately sampled by estimating the transition rates, or more generally the generator, of its Markovian projection. This framework has recently been extended to the case of discrete source and target distributions, under the name Discrete Flow Matching (DFM). However, theoretical guarantees for such models remain scarce. In this paper, we study two DFM models on $\mathbb{Z}_m^d = \{0,\ldots,m-1\}^d$, sampled through time discretization, and derive non-asymptotic associated bounds for both of them. In contrast to previous work, we establish non-asymptotic bounds in Kullback–Leibler divergence for the early-stopped version of the target distribution. We also derive explicit convergence guarantees in total variation distance with respect to the true target distribution. Importantly, these bounds rely only on an approximation error assumption, relaxing standard score assumptions used in earlier works, while also yielding improved dependence on the vocabulary size $m$ and the dimension $d$.
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All authors Le-Tuyet-Nhi Pham, Giovanni Conforti, Zhenjie Ren, Alain Durmus

Machine Learning

OTora: A Unified Red Teaming Framework for Reasoning-Level Denial-of-Service in LLM Agents

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents that execute tool-augmented, multi-step tasks, where latency is a critical factor for real-world applications. Yet an overlooked threat is Reasoning-Level Denial-of-Service (R-DoS), in which an attacker preserves task correctness but degrades availability by inflating an agent's reasoning depth or tool-use budget. We introduce OTora, the first unified, two-stage red-teaming framework for instantiating R-DoS attacks. Stage I optimizes an adversarial trigger that induces targeted tool invocations using insertion-aware scoring and dynamic target co-evolution, supporting both black-box and white-box settings. Stage II generates agent-aware reasoning payloads via an ICL-guided genetic search that amplifies overthinking while maintaining correct task outcomes. Across WebShop, Email, and OS agents built on multiple backbone models such as LLaMA-70B and GPT-OSS-120B, OTora achieves up to 10 times increases in reasoning tokens and order-of-magnitude latency slowdowns, all while preserving near-baseline task accuracy. Finally, we discuss mitigation strategies for detecting and constraining abnormal reasoning and latency spikes. The code is available at https://github.com/llm2409/OTora.
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All authors Xinyu Li, Ronghui Mu, Lin Li, Tianjin Huang, Gaojie Jin

Machine Learning

CoDistill-GRPO: A Co-Distillation Recipe for Efficient Group Relative Policy Optimization

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has emerged as a powerful algorithm for improving the reasoning capabilities of language models, but often fails to improve small models due to sparse rewards on difficult tasks. Existing works mitigate this issue by leveraging a larger model, either to provide hints for rollouts or to provide dense reward signals through knowledge distillation (KD). However, this assumes the existence of such an oracle, and training one can significantly increase total training time. In this work, we propose CoDistill-GRPO, a co-distillation algorithm that simultaneously trains a large and a small model by maximizing carefully designed GRPO objectives. The two models learn from each other: the small model uses an on-policy KD reward to learn from the large model's distribution, while the large model is updated using rollouts generated by the small model with importance reweighting, reducing the computational overhead of rollout generation. We show that CoDistill-GRPO substantially improves small model performance over standard GRPO on mathematical benchmarks across both Qwen and Llama models. Specifically, with Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, we observe an accuracy increase of over 11.6 percentage points over the base model and an additional 6.0 percentage points over GRPO on the Minerva dataset. Interestingly, the larger model (Qwen2.5-Math-7B) trained with CoDistill-GRPO nearly matches standard GRPO performance despite training on small-model rollouts. This highlights CoDistill-GRPO as a cost-effective alternative to GRPO for larger models, yielding an approximate 18% speedup, which may be of independent interest.
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All authors Soo Min Kwon, Ziteng Sun, Ananda Theertha Suresh, Himanshu Jain, Sanjiv Kumar

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC

Rennala MVR: Improved Time Complexity for Parallel Stochastic Optimization via Momentum-Based Variance Reduction

Large-scale machine learning models are trained on clusters of machines that exhibit heterogeneous performance due to hardware variability, network delays, and system-level instabilities. In such environments, time complexity rather than iteration complexity becomes the relevant performance metric for optimization algorithms. Recent work by Tyurin and Richtárik (2023) established the first time complexity analysis for parallel first-order stochastic optimization, proposing Rennala SGD as a time-optimal method for smooth nonconvex optimization. However, Rennala SGD is fundamentally a modification of SGD, and variance reduction techniques are known to improve the iteration complexity of SGD. In this work, we investigate whether variance reduction can also improve time complexity in heterogeneous systems. We show that, under a mean-squared smoothness assumption, variance reduction can improve time complexity in relevant parameter regimes. To this end, we propose Rennala MVR, a variance-reduced extension of Rennala SGD based on momentum-based variance reduction, and analyze its oracle and time complexity. We establish lower bounds for time complexity under these assumptions. On a stochastic quadratic benchmark, experiments with the exact method support the theory, while neural-network experiments with a practical inexact variant show similar empirical gains over Rennala SGD.
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Machine Learning

TopoGeoScore: A Self-Supervised Source-Only Geometric Framework for OOD Checkpoint Selection

Out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness is difficult to diagnose when target-domain labels are unavailable. We consider a more restrictive source-only variant of unsupervised accuracy estimation: selecting robust checkpoints using only source-domain representations, with no target samples or target labels. We propose TopoGeoScore, a source-only geometric scorer for label-free OOD checkpoint selection. Given a trained checkpoint, we construct class-conditional mutual $k$-nearest-neighbour graphs from source embeddings and extract three interpretable signals: a torsion-inspired reduced Laplacian log-determinant for global class-manifold complexity, Ollivier–Ricci curvature for local neighbourhood regularity, and higher-order topological summaries for fragmented connectivity, loops, and global–local inconsistency. Instead of fixing their weights by hand, TopoGeoScore learns a non-negative linear score through a self-supervised objective that enforces invariance under approximately geometry-preserving embedding views and separation from structure-breaking views. The score remains interpretable and uses no target-domain samples or labels. Results across CIFAR-based corruption and distribution-shift benchmarks, ImageNet-C, MNLI$\to$HANS transfer, and OGBN-Arxiv suggest that source representations contain measurable global–local–topological evidence of robustness, supporting practical checkpoint selection before deployment under distribution shift.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Tight Generalization Bounds for Noiseless Inverse Optimization

Inverse optimization (IO) seeks to infer the parameters of a decision-maker's objective from observed context–action data. We study noiseless IO, where demonstrations are generated by a ground-truth objective. We provide a high-probability ${O}(\frac{d}{T})$ generalization bound for the induced action set, where $d$ is the number of unknown parameters and $T$ is the size of the training dataset. We strengthen this guarantee under additional conditions that ensure uniqueness of the chosen action, bringing our IO guarantees in line with best-arm identification results in the bandit literature. We further show that the ${O}(\frac{d}{T})$ rate is tight over all consistent estimators considered here, and extend the result to both instantaneous and cumulative regret. Notably, the resulting regret lower bound matches the corresponding upper bounds in the adversarial setting, indicating that the stochastic IO setting is effectively adversarial for the class of estimators studied here. Finally, we propose a parameter-free algorithm with lower per-iteration complexity than generic solvers. Experiments validate the predicted rates and illustrate the tightness of our bounds.
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All authors Pouria Fatemi, Hoomaan Maskan, Suvrit Sra, Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani

Machine Learning

Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation

We study online estimation in latent-variable models by recasting the problem as tracking a moving empirical equilibrium. Standard online EM and stochastic approximation analyses primarily study convergence toward the population parameter and typically do not isolate the empirical batch optimum from the online tracking error at finite horizon. Our framework decomposes the online estimate into the frozen batch equilibrium at the current running statistic and a tracking lag that captures the algorithm's delay behind this moving target. We prove a batch-to-online transfer theorem: provided $\lVert e_T \rVert_{L^{2}} = o(T^{-1/2})$, the online estimator inherits the batch central limit theorem and the sharp first-order risk constant. Our key observation is that the empirical optimum evolves on a smooth equilibrium manifold indexed by the running statistic. An $m$-th order equilibrium-jet predictor combined with an order-$\nu$ frozen corrector yields localized tracking rates $O(T^{-\nu(m+1)})$. We formalize EM-compressibility and EM-jet$^R$-compressibility as the structural conditions that make the equilibrium response and the Newton corrector evaluable from a retained streaming statistic. The theory is instantiated in latent linear Gaussian covariance estimation, where the first-order scheme operates on a compressed $d \times d$ statistic with explicit finite-sample risk envelopes and a certified restart rule.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Max-pooling Network Revisited: Analyzing the Role of Semantic Probability in Multiple Instance Learning for Hallucination Detection

Hallucination detection has become increasingly important for improving the reliability of large language models (LLMs). Recently, hybrid approaches such as HaMI, which combine semantic consistency with internal model states via Multiple Instance Learning (MIL), have achieved state-of-the-art performance. However, these methods incur substantial computational overhead due to repeated sampling and costly semantic similarity computations. In this work, we first provide a theoretical analysis of HaMI in terms of decision margins, revealing that scaling internal states with semantic consistency leads to an enlarged decision margin. Motivated by this insight, we revisit classical sentence classification models from a margin enlargement perspective, aggregating token-level features via max pooling and directly estimating sentence scores using a lightweight MLP. Without requiring semantic consistency computations, our approach achieves substantial efficiency improvements while maintaining competitive performance with state-of-the-art baselines through adaptive aggregation of internal feature representations. Code is available at https://github.com/FUJI1229/Hallucination_Detection.
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Machine Learning

BubbleSpec: Turning Long-Tail Bubbles into Speculative Rollout Drafts for Synchronous Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has become a cornerstone for improving the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, its rollout phase constitutes a significant efficiency bottleneck, mainly arising from the long-tail bubbles across data parallel ranks, particularly in long-context scenarios where faster GPUs remain idle while waiting for stragglers. Existing solutions, such as partial rollout or asynchronous RL, mitigate these bubbles by compromising the algorithm's strict synchronous nature. Instead, we propose BubbleSpec, a novel framework that accelerates RL rollouts while strictly keeping the mathematical exactness. Instead of attempting to eliminate bubbles, BubbleSpec exploits them. We exploit the idle time windows of faster ranks to pre-generate rollout results for subsequent steps, serving as drafts for speculative decoding. Unlike prior speculative methods that rely on historical epoch similarity and warm-ups, BubbleSpec is agnostic to dataset size and provides immediate acceleration from the onset of training. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that BubbleSpec reduces decoding steps by 50% and increases rollout throughput by up to 1.8x. Critically, BubbleSpec is seamlessly compatible with various RL frameworks and strategies as it sustains the strict synchronous property of RL algorithms.
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All authors Yuhang Xu, Kaibin Tian, Yang Tian, Zhice Yang, Yifeng Yu, Yan Li, Shengzhong Liu, Fan Wu, Guihai Chen

Machine Learning

RareCP: Regime-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Conformal Prediction

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification for time series forecasting show that conformal prediction can provide reliable prediction intervals, yet standard conformal methods are often inefficient under temporal dependence, drift, and heterogeneous error behavior. Existing methods typically either update miscoverage rates over time or learn unconstrained calibration weights, without explicitly separating two central sources of nonstationarity: smoothly drifting error distributions and co-existing distinct error regimes. We introduce RareCP, a regime-aware retrieval method for adaptive conformal time series prediction. RareCP learns local calibration representations through a mixture of cosine-attention experts that each capture distinct error regimes, while a compact hypernetwork adapts the kernel parameters to track temporal drift. Given a new forecasting context, RareCP retrieves the top-k most relevant calibration examples, assigns similarity weights, and forms a weighted conformal quantile over their signed residuals, yielding asymmetric prediction intervals. The adaptive kernel is trained using a smooth interval score objective, with a parameter-space anchor to a lightweight teacher kernel to preserve stable local representations. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, RareCP improves interval efficiency over recent conformal baselines and foundation model uncertainty estimates while maintaining empirical coverage. Ablations confirm that regime-specific experts, drift-adaptive kernels, sparse retrieval, and teacher anchoring each contribute to the final performance.
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Machine Learning

Controlling Transient Amplification Improves Long-horizon Rollouts

Autoregressive neural simulators now match classical solvers on short-horizon prediction of physical systems, yet their accuracy degrades rapidly when rolled out over long horizons. In this work, we identify transient amplification of perturbations around rollout trajectories as a structural mechanism driving rollout error. Using a linearization analysis we show that when the Jacobians along an autoregressive trajectory are non-normal and non-commuting, the model amplifies errors transiently, resulting in model rollout drift even when the overall system is asymptotically stable. Building on the analysis, we propose commutativity regularization: a combination of two penalties designed to reduce the normality defect of individual Jacobians and the commutator norm of Jacobians across steps. The penalties are estimated with Jacobian-vector products and have no inference-time cost. We show a propagator bound that quantifies rollout error under approximate commutativity and normality. We evaluate UNet and FNO variants with commutativity regularization on 1D and 2D spatio-temporal data in synthetic and real settings, showing successful long-horizon rollouts over thousands of steps. Further, we show that the method improves FourCastNet climate forecasts on ERA5 without using any new data. The gain is most pronounced out-of-distribution: trained on trajectories of a few hundred steps, regularized models remain in-distribution for thousands of rollout steps on initial conditions where baselines diverge.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Geometrically Constrained Stenosis Editing in Coronary Angiography via Entropic Optimal Transport

The scarcity of high-quality imaging data for coronary angiography (CAG) stenosis limits the clinical translation of automated stenosis detection. Synthetic stenosis data provides a practical avenue to augment training sets, improving data quality, diversity, and distributional coverage, and enhancing detection precision and generalization. However, diffusion-based editing commonly relies on soft guidance in a noise-initialized reverse process, offering limited pixel-level precision and structure preservation. We propose the OT-Bridge Editor, which reframes localized editing as a constrained entropic optimal transport (OT) problem and leverages geometric information to steer the generation path, enabling stronger geometric control. Extensive experiments show that our synthesized angiograms consistently improve downstream stenosis detection, yielding substantial relative gains of 27.8% on the public ARCADE benchmark and 23.0% on our multi-center dataset, supported by consistent qualitative results.
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All authors Jialin Li, Zhuo Zhang, Yue Cao, Guipeng Lan, Jiabao Wen, Shuai Xiao, Jiachen Yang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC

Broximal Gradient Descent: A Projection-Free Sister of Projected Gradient Descent

We propose Broximal Gradient Descent (BroxGD), a projection-free sister method to projected gradient descent for constrained optimization. Its forward–backward construction replaces the proximal backward operation by the broximal operation of Gruntkowska et al. (2025). Instead of projecting, each step minimizes a linear function over the intersection of the constraint set $\mathcal{X}$ and a ball $\mathbb{B}(x_k,t_k)$ centered at the current iterate $x_k$, of suitable radius $t_k>0$: \[ x_{k+1}\in\arg\min_{z\in\mathcal{X}\cap\mathbb{B}(x_k,t_k)}\langle\nabla f(x_k),z\rangle. \] We develop a comprehensive convergence theory spanning a wide range of optimization regimes and radius rules. We expect BroxGD to find many applications and inspire numerous extensions, much like projected gradient descent. Our contribution is theoretical; potential applications and toy experiments illustrate the method and suggest directions for future work.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

M$^3$: Reframing Training Measures for Discretized Physical Simulations

Neural surrogate models for physical simulations are trained on discretized samples of continuous domains, where the induced empirical measure leads to uneven supervision, biasing optimization and causing spatial inconsistencies in physical fidelity. To mitigate this measure-induced bias, we propose M$^3$ (Multi-scale Morton Measure), a scalable framework that balances training measures by partitioning space according to physical variation and allocating supervision across multiple scales. Applied to three industrial-scale datasets with diverse discretizations, M$^3$ consistently improves predictions in the continuous physical domain, achieving up to 4.7$\times$ lower error in large-scale volumetric cases. These gains persist under aggressive subsampling (160M $\rightarrow$ 16M $\rightarrow$ 1.6M points), where M$^3$-trained models outperform those trained on higher-resolution data, reducing physics-weighted relative $L_2$ error by 3–4$\times$ and the corresponding MSE by up to 13$\times$. These results highlight data distribution as a key factor in operator learning and position M$^3$ as a scalable, data-efficient approach for physically consistent modeling. Code is available at https://github.com/PhysDataRefine/M3.
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All authors Yuan Mei, Xingyu Song, Xiaowen Song, Naoya Takeishi

Machine Learning

Inpainting physics: self-supervised learning for context-driven fluid simulation

Neural surrogate models for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are typically trained as forward operators that map explicit problem specifications, such as geometry and boundary conditions, to solution fields. This ties the model to the conditioning variables seen during training and limits reuse under boundary-condition shifts or local geometry changes. We propose to reformulate steady CFD inference as an inpainting problem: instead of training on explicit boundary conditions, we learn a self-supervised prior over velocity fields and impose boundary constraints only during inference by fixing known regions such as inlet, outlet or unchanged regions from previous simulations. To scale this idea to large 3D meshes, we introduce a local neighbourhood tokeniser that represents high-resolution velocity fields as compact spatial latent tokens and train latent flow-matching and masked-autoencoder models on these tokens. On intracranial aneurysm hemodynamics, our method reconstructs full velocity fields from sparse boundary context, outperforms supervised neural surrogates under boundary-condition and dataset shift and enables local geometry editing by reusing unchanged simulation context. These results suggest that viewing CFD inference as context-conditioned inpainting can turn neural surrogates from task-specific predictors into reusable flow priors.
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All authors Jonas Weidner, Yeray Martin-Ruisanchez, Daniel Rueckert, Benedikt Wiestler, Julian Suk

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

From pre-training to downstream performance: Does domain-specific pre-training make sense?

Deep learning techniques have revolutionised medical imaging, improving diagnostic accuracy and enabling both more accurate and earlier disease detection. However, the relationship between pre-training strategies and downstream performance in medical imaging models requires further exploration. Here, we systematically compare convolutional neural networks and transformers, examining various pre-training approaches, including supervised and self-supervised learning, as well as different initialisations and data modalities. Models are evaluated on natural images, chest X-rays, chest CT and retina OCT images, considering the effects of matching pre-training data with target modalities. Our findings indicate that only pre-training on data closely matching the target modality significantly improves downstream performance. While self-supervised learning can outperform supervised methods, its effectiveness varies with context. The study underscores the importance of pre-training strategies to enhance the reliability and effectiveness of deep learning models in medical imaging. By addressing these key factors, our research aims to contribute to the development of more accurate and dependable diagnostic tools, ultimately improving patient outcomes in clinical settings.
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Machine Learning

MicroFuse: Protein-to-Genome Expert Fusion for Microbial Operon Reasoning

Predicting microbial operon co-membership requires integrating two complementary biological signals: protein-scale molecular identity and genome-context organization. While recent biological foundation models provide powerful representations of each view independently, naive concatenation of these modalities ignores a key biological property – protein identity and genomic context may agree when adjacent genes form a coherent functional module, or conflict when sequence similarity is misleading but genomic layout indicates independent regulation. We present MicroFuse, a protein-to-genome expert fusion framework that integrates structure-aware protein representations from ProstT5 with genome-context representations from Bacformer through a four-expert Mixture-of-Experts module (protein, genome-context, agreement, and conflict experts) with a learned soft router. Training combines binary cross-entropy with symmetric cross-modal InfoNCE alignment and disagreement-weighted supervised contrastive shaping. We further construct OG-Operon100K, a 100,000-pair scaffold-level benchmark from the OMG metagenomic corpus with biologically grounded positive and negative criteria. On OG-Operon100K, MicroFuse achieves the strongest AUROC, AUPRC, mAP, and mAR among ProstT5-only, Bacformer-only, and Concat MLP baselines. Ablations identify cross-modal contrastive alignment as the dominant component, and a hard sequence-conflict subset reveals MicroFuse's largest gains precisely in biologically ambiguous cases where protein identity alone is misleading.
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Machine Learning

AgentSlimming: Towards Efficient and Cost-Aware Multi-Agent Systems

Large Language Model-based Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex tasks. However, manually designing optimal communication topologies is labor-intensive, while automated expansion methods often result in bloated structures with redundant agents, leading to excessive token consumption. To address this problem, we introduce AgentSlimming, a plug-and-play compression framework for graph-structured multi-agent workflows. Motivated by pruning and quantization in neural networks, AgentSlimming compresses workflows by first estimating the importance score of each agent with a hybrid mechanism, and then removes redundant agents or replaces them with low-cost ones, where each operation is validated using a baseline-anchored acceptance rule to prevent performance collapse. Experiments show that AgentSlimming reduces average token cost by up to 78.9% with negligible performance degradation, and sometimes even improves accuracy, achieving a strong Pareto-optimal trade-off between cost and quality. \textit{Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/CitrusYL/AgentSlimming
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All authors Yulang Chen, Haoxuan Peng, Jinyan Liu, Zichen Wen, Dongrui Liu, Linfeng Zhang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Learning Theory of Transformers: Local-to-Global Approximation via Softmax Partition of Unity

This paper investigates the learning theory of Transformer networks for regression tasks on the compact Euclidean domain $[0,1]^d$ and $d$-dimensional compact Riemannian manifolds. We propose a novel constructive approximation framework for Transformers that builds local approximations of the target function and aggregates them into a global approximation via softmax partition of unity (POU). This approach leverages the attention mechanism to achieve spatial localization through affine transformations of the input. The softmax activation plays a crucial role in aggregating local approximations to a global output. From an approximation perspective, we prove that a dense Transformer equipped with only two encoder blocks and standard single-hidden-layer point-wise feed-forward networks can achieve a uniform $\varepsilon$-approximation error for $\alpha$-Hölder continuous functions with $\alpha \in (0,1]$ using $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-d/\alpha})$ total parameters. Building upon this approximation guarantee, we establish a near minimax-optimal generalization error bound of order $\mathcal{O}\big(n^{-\frac{2\alpha}{2\alpha+d}} \log n\big)$ for the empirical risk minimizer, where $n$ is the training data size. The Transformer architecture studied in this paper uses native softmax attention and sinusoidal positional encodings, with a fixed depth of two encoder blocks. Finally, numerical experiments reveal spatially localized, Gaussian-like attention weights that emerge during training, resembling our Softmax POU weights.
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