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Computer Science Machine Learning

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Friday 8 May

Machine Learning

Almost Sure Convergence Rates of Stochastic Approximation and Reinforcement Learning via a Poisson-Moreau Drift

Establishing almost sure convergence rates for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning under Markovian noise is a fundamental theoretical challenge. We make progress towards this challenge for a class of stochastic approximation algorithms whose expected updates are contractive, a setting that arises in many reinforcement learning algorithms such as $Q$-learning and linear temporal difference learning. Specifically, for a power-law learning rate $O(n^{-\eta})$ with $\eta \in (1/2, 1)$, we obtain an almost sure convergence rate arbitrarily close to $o(n^{1 - 2\eta})$. For the harmonic learning rate $\alpha_n=\alpha/(n+1)$, the almost sure squared-error rate is $o(n^{-\zeta})$ for every $\zeta<\min\{1,2(1-\kappa)\alpha\}$, where $\kappa$ is the contraction factor. Thus exponents arbitrarily close to one are available when $2(1-\kappa)\alpha\geq1$. This approaches the $n^{-1}$ polynomial exponent of classical law-of-the-iterated-logarithm benchmarks. Key to our analysis is a novel Lyapunov drift construction that applies a Poisson-equation based correction for Markovian noise to the well-established Moreau-envelope smoothing for the contractive mapping.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

TRACE: Transport Alignment Conformal Prediction via Diffusion and Flow Matching Models

Constructing valid and informative conformal prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs remains a fundamental challenge. While conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees, its practical performance critically depends on the choice of nonconformity score. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive geometric assumptions or require explicit likelihood evaluation and invertible transformations, limiting their applicability in complex generative settings. In this work, we introduce TRACE (TRansport Alignment Conformal Estimation), a conformal prediction framework that defines nonconformity through transport alignment in diffusion and flow matching models. Rather than evaluating likelihoods, we measure how well a candidate output aligns with the learned generative dynamics by averaging denoising or velocity-matching errors along stochastic transport trajectories. The resulting transport-based scores are scalar-valued and can be calibrated using split conformal prediction, yielding valid marginal coverage under exchangeability. We further analyze the statistical properties of the proposed scores and their sensitivity to computational budget. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate valid coverage and show that the resulting regions adapt naturally to multimodal and non-convex conditional distributions.
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Machine Learning

CarCrashNet: A Large-Scale Dataset and Hierarchical Neural Solver for Data-Driven Structural Crash Simulation

Crash simulation is a cornerstone of modern vehicle development because it reduces the need for costly physical prototypes, accelerates safety-driven design iteration, and increasingly supports virtual testing workflows. At the same time, modeling structural crash mechanics remains exceptionally challenging: the response is governed by nonlinear contact, large deformation, material plasticity, failure, and complex multi-body interactions evolving over space and time on high-resolution finite-element meshes. In this work, we introduce CarCrashNet, a public high-fidelity open-source benchmark for data-driven structural crash simulation. CarCrashNet combines component-scale and full-vehicle simulations in a multi-modal format, including more than 14,000 bumper-beam pole-impact simulations with varying geometry, materials, and boundary conditions, together with 825 full-vehicle crash simulations built from three industry-standard vehicle models of increasing structural complexity: Dodge Neon, Toyota Yaris, and Chevrolet Silverado. To establish the reliability of the benchmark, we validate our open-source finite-element workflow based on OpenRadioss against both experimental crash data and the commercial solver Ansys LS-DYNA. We also introduce CrashSolver, a machine-learning model designed for full-vehicle crash prediction from high-resolution finite-element crash data. We further perform extensive benchmarking across the released datasets and evaluate CrashSolver against state-of-the-art geometric deep learning and transformer-based neural solvers. Our results position CarCrashNet as a foundation for reproducible research in structural simulation, crashworthiness modeling, and AI-driven virtual crash testing. The dataset is available at https://github.com/Mohamedelrefaie/CarCrashNet.
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All authors Mohamed Elrefaie, Dule Shu, Matthew Klenk, Faez Ahmed

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity

We show that, in a precise sense, a broad class of feedforward neural networks learn (have finite sample complexity) in the PAC model: every fixed finite feedforward architecture whose layers are definable in an o-minimal structure has finite sample complexity in the agnostic PAC setting, even with unbounded parameters. This covers standard fixed-size MLPs, CNNs, GNNs, and transformers with fixed sequence length, together with the operations and layers typically used in such architectures, including linear projections, residual connections, attention mechanisms, pooling layers, normalization layers, and admissible positional encodings. Hence, distribution-free learnability for modern non-recurrent architectures is not an exceptional property of particular activations or architecture-specific VC arguments, but a consequence of tame feedforward computation. Our results reposition finite-sample PAC learnability as a baseline rather than a differentiator: they shift the focus of architectural comparison toward inductive biases, symmetries and geometric priors, scalability, and optimization behaviour.
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All authors Anastasis Kratsios, Gregory Cousins, Haitz Sáez de Ocáriz Borde, Bum Jun Kim, Simone Brugiapaglia

Machine Learning

Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses

Evaluating a new model on an existing benchmark is often necessary to understand its behavior before deployment. For modern evaluation frameworks, generating and evaluating a response for all queries can be prohibitively expensive. In practice, responses from previously-evaluated models are often cached – creating a potential opportunity to use this additional information to decrease the number of queries required to accurately evaluate a new model. In this paper, we introduce an approach for predicting benchmark performance that leverages cached model responses based on the Data Kernel Perspective Space (DKPS), a method for quantifying the relationship between models in the black-box setting. Theoretically, we show that DKPS-based methods are query-efficient under certain conditions. Empirically, we demonstrate that DKPS-based methods achieve the same mean absolute error as baselines with a substantially decreased query budget. We conclude by proposing an offline method for selecting a set of queries that maximizes the goodness-of-fit on reference models, improving prediction accuracy over random query selection.
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Machine Learning

Actor-Critic with Active Importance Sampling

This paper introduces the Active-Importance-Sampling Actor-Critic (AISAC) algorithm, an extension of the Actor-Critic framework for reducing variance in policy gradient estimation. AISAC optimizes the behavior policy to minimize gradient variance while preserving unbiased gradient estimates. Using importance sampling principles, the algorithm adapts the behavior policy toward efficient data collection distributions aligned with target policy gradients. For continuous action spaces, AISAC employs Gaussian behavior policies optimized through cross-entropy minimization. We provide theoretical analysis demonstrating variance reduction and unbiasedness. Experiments on Inverted Pendulum and Half Cheetah tasks show improved learning speed, sample efficiency, and training stability compared to standard Actor-Critic methods. Results indicate that optimizing the behavior policy improves both target policy updates and critic estimation accuracy across different hyperparameter settings. AISAC accelerates convergence and stabilizes reinforcement learning training, making it promising for real-world applications. Future work includes integration with advanced algorithms such as Soft Actor-Critic and TD3 for more complex environments.
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All authors Majid Molaei, Gabor Paczolay, Matteo Papini, Alberto Maria Metelli, Marcello Restelli

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

The Translation Tax Is Not a Scalar: A Counterfactual Audit of English-Source Cue Inheritance in Chinese Multilingual Benchmarks

The Translation Tax is often treated as a scalar: translated benchmarks are assumed to inflate scores by preserving English-source cues. We audit this claim in an English-to-Chinese setting. Three proxy estimators disagree: back-translation gaps are small and parser-fragile; cue-score calibration does not predict item-level gains; and a six-model native-control comparison shows model-family rather than uniform benchmark effects. We add a same-item LLM-naturalization stress test that holds answer, options, and content fixed while rewriting Chinese surface form. After correcting a prompt-construction bug, this contrast no longer supports a model-family interaction, but it preserves a residue dose-response: high-residue items benefit while low-residue items do not. The result is not a single Translation Tax, but a set of estimator- and item-dependent validity risks. We release per-cell evidence, the naturalization protocol, human QC, and a reporting checklist for translated multilingual benchmark papers.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Task Relevance Is Not Local Replaceability: A Two-Axis View of Channel Information

Channel importance in vision networks is usually summarized by a single score. That summary hides two different questions: how much a channel is related to the task, and whether its function can be supplied by same-layer peers when the channel is removed. We call the second property local replaceability. We introduce a two-axis view that separates these questions. The local axis measures input capture and peer overlap, while the target axis measures task information and target-excess information. Across ResNet-18, VGG-16, and MobileNetV2 trained on CIFAR-100, the two axes are weakly aligned, induce different channel groupings, and separate rapidly during training despite being strongly coupled at random initialization. A Gaussian linear analysis accounts for how this separation can arise through residualized gradient directions, and lesion plus peer-replacement experiments show that peer support refines removability beyond input capture and task relevance alone. Under the fixed FLOPs-matched pruning protocol, local-axis metrics are more reliable predictors of removability than target-axis metrics across the three CIFAR-100 backbones, with the same direction preserved in stress tests on CIFAR-10, Tiny-ImageNet, ImageNet-100, and a ConvNeXt-T/ImageNet-100 pilot. These findings identify an axis-level distinction rather than a universal ranking of pruning scores: local replaceability is a more reliable guide to removability than target relevance, while norm-based baselines remain competitive in architectures such as VGG-16. Relevance-based scores ask what a channel says about the task; pruning asks whether the network still needs that channel when its peers remain available.
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All authors Houman Safaai, Andrew T. Landau, Celia C. Beron, Yasin Mazloumi, Bernardo L. Sabatini

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Learning Visual Feature-Based World Models via Residual Latent Action

World models predict future transitions from observations and actions. Existing works predominantly focus on image generation only. Visual feature-based world models, on the other hand, predict future visual features instead of raw video pixels, offering a promising alternative that is more efficient and less prone to hallucination. However, current feature-based approaches rely on direct regression, which leads to blurry or collapsed predictions in complex interactions, while generative modeling in high-dimensional feature spaces still remains challenging. In this work, we discover that a new type of latent action representation, which we refer to as Residual Latent Action (RLA), can be easily learned from DINO residuals. We also show that RLA is predictive, generalizable, and encodes temporal progression. Building on RLA, we propose RLA World Model (RLA-WM), which predicts RLA values via flow matching. RLA-WM outperforms both state-of-the-art feature-based and video-diffusion world models on simulation and real-world datasets, while being orders of magnitude faster than video diffusion. Furthermore, we develop two robot learning techniques that use RLA-WM to improve policy learning. The first one is a minimalist world action model with RLA that learns from actionless videos, and improves VLA on LIBERO and real robot. The second one is a visual RL framework trained entirely inside a world model learned from offline videos only, using a video-aligned reward and no online interactions. Project page: https://mlzxy.github.io/rla-wm
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All authors Xinyu Zhang, Zhengtong Xu, Yutian Tao, Yeping Wang, Yu She, Abdeslam Boularias

Machine Learning

Test-Time Compositional Generalization in Diffusion Models via Concept Discovery

Compositional generalization requires models to produce novel configurations from familiar parts. In diffusion models, prior compositional generation methods typically assume that the relevant concepts or conditioning signals are already available. We instead ask whether a pretrained diffusion model can discover query-specific concepts from the time-indexed scores it learns for the noisy marginals $p_t(x_t)$ and compose them at test time. Given a single out-of-distribution query, our method performs gradient ascent on $s_\theta(x_t,t) \approx \nabla_{x_t}\log p_t(x_t)$ at multiple noising timesteps to recover local density modes, maps these modes into clean-space Gaussians, greedily selects relevant prototypes with a submodular likelihood objective, and combines them into a product-of-experts (PoE) teacher model with an analytic score. This teacher model can be sampled directly through classifier-free guidance or used to generate a sample pool for training a new class embedding and low-rank adapter. On held-out composition benchmarks built from ColorMNIST and CelebA, both the analytic PoE sampler and the low-rank adapted model outperform query-only and nearest trained-class baselines. These results suggest that the time-indexed score geometry of the diffusion model contains reusable density-mode concepts that support test-time compositional generation without a predefined concept library.
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All authors Zekun Wang, Anant Gupta, Tianyi Zhu, Christopher J. MacLellan

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Self-Consolidating Language Models: Continual Knowledge Incorporation from Context

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly receive information as streams of passages, conversations, and long-context workflows. While longer context windows expose more evidence, they do not ensure that useful information is preserved and reused. We study continual context consolidation: writing current context into model weights while limiting interference with previously consolidated information. We propose Self-Consolidating Language Models (SCoL), a post-training framework in which, given current context, an LLM learns to generate textual update instructions specifying which of its own Transformer layers should be updated. Because committed updates change the model that later generates future selections, we train SCoL with meta-reinforcement learning over an evolving model state. We instantiate SCoL with supervised QA rewards on SQuAD knowledge incorporation and intrinsic likelihood-based rewards for LongBench v2 long-context consolidation. Across both settings, SCoL improves acquisition and retention over prompting, summarization, batch test-time training, and sequential finetuning baselines. Analysis of learned selection patterns shows that SCoL encourages the LLM to generate sparse update locations that align with layers of high Fisher information, suggesting that the model learns to route plasticity toward loss-sensitive regions while limiting interference. Moreover, SCoL transfers from shorter meta-training streams to longer LongBench v2 streams at evaluation, suggesting that our framework supports scalable streaming consolidation.
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All authors Zekun Wang, Anant Gupta, Zihan Dong, Christopher J. MacLellan

Machine Learning

ModelLens: Finding the Best for Your Task from Myriads of Models

The open-source model ecosystem now contains hundreds of thousands of pretrained models, yet picking the best model for a new dataset is increasingly infeasible: new models and unbenchmarked datasets emerge continuously, leaving practitioners with no prior records on either side. Existing approaches handle only fragments of this in-the-wild setting: AutoML and transferability estimation select models from small predefined pools or require expensive per-model forward passes on the target dataset, while model routing presupposes a given candidate pool. We introduce ModelLens, a unified framework for model recommendation in the wild. Our key insight is that public leaderboard interactions, though scattered and noisy, collectively trace out an implicit atlas of model capabilities across heterogeneous evaluation settings, a signal rich enough to learn from directly. By learning a performance-aware latent space over model–dataset–metric tuples, ModelLens ranks unseen models on unseen datasets without running candidates on the target dataset. On a new benchmark of 1.62M evaluation records spanning 47K models and 9.6K datasets, ModelLens surpasses baselines that either rely on metadata alone or require running each candidate on the target dataset. Its recommended Top-K pools further improve multiple representative routing methods by up to 81% across diverse QA benchmarks. Case studies on recently released benchmarks further confirm generalization to both text and vision-language tasks.
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All authors Rui Cai, Weijie Jacky Mo, Xiaofei Wen, Qiyao Ma, Wenhui Zhu, Xiwen Chen, Muhao Chen, Zhe Zhao

Machine Learning

Less Random, More Private: What is the Optimal Subsampling Scheme for DP-SGD?

Poisson subsampling is the default sampling scheme in differentially private machine learning, largely because its unstructured randomness yields tractable privacy amplification analyses. Yet this same randomness introduces substantial participation variance: each sample appears in very different numbers of training iterations. In this work, we show that this variance is not merely a practical artifact to be tolerated, but a fundamental source of suboptimal privacy amplification. We prove that Balanced Iteration Subsampling (BIS), a structured scheme in which each sample participates in exactly a fixed number of iterations, achieves stronger privacy amplification than Poisson subsampling and is optimal at both extremes of the noise spectrum ($\sigma \to 0$ and $\sigma \to \infty$). Our analysis reveals that the privacy-noise tradeoff is governed not by maximizing randomness, but by eliminating participation variance while preserving uniform marginal participation across iterations. To translate this asymptotic theory into finite-noise guarantees, we introduce a practical near-exact Monte Carlo accountant for BIS, which removes the analytical slack of existing RDP and composition-based PLD analyses. Evaluations across more than 60 practical DP-SGD configurations show that BIS consistently outperforms Poisson subsampling in the low-noise regimes most relevant for high-utility private training, reducing the required noise multiplier by up to $9.6\%$. These results overturn the common intuition that more sampling randomness necessarily yields stronger privacy amplification: in DP-SGD, structured participation can be both more practical and more private. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/dong-xin-ao-andy/bis-mc-accountant.
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Machine Learning

PolarAdamW: Disentangling Spectral Control and Schur Gauge-Equivariance in Matrix Optimisation

Muon's matrix-level update couples two distinct effects: spectral control via a polar map, and equivariance under orthogonal changes of multiplicity-space basis (Schur gauge-equivariance). We separate them with PolarAdamW, a controlled hybrid that preserves Muon's polar spectral-norm control but breaks the gauge-equivariance, since AdamW's coordinatewise preconditioner is basis-dependent. Algorithmically, PolarAdamW applies Muon's Newton-Schulz polar map to AdamW's preconditioned direction rather than to raw momentum, at per-iteration wall-time comparable to Muon. We prove that Muon's polar step is Schur gauge-equivariant on multiplicity matrices while AdamW's coordinatewise step is not. On DeiT-Tiny trained from scratch on four independently sampled 100-class subsets of ImageNet-1k, where multiplicity-basis freedom is trivial, PolarAdamW outperforms Muon by +1.93 pp in test accuracy on average and AdamW by +9.5 pp; under the 300-epoch DeiT-style recipe, it remains ahead of Muon by +1.37 pp and AdamW by +5.80 pp on average. On SO(3)-equivariant 3D point-cloud regression, where multiplicity-basis freedom is non-trivial, the ordering reverses: Muon outperforms PolarAdamW at every audited capacity, and the gap widens with capacity. Both matrix-polar optimisers continue to outperform AdamW. This double dissociation separates spectral control from Schur gauge-equivariance: the first composes well with AdamW preconditioning on standard transformers, while the second becomes consequential when multiplicity-basis freedom is structurally non-trivial.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Causal EpiNets: Precision-corrected Bounds on Individual Treatment Effects using Epistemic Neural Networks

Individual treatment effects are not point-identified from data. The Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS) circumvents this limitation by characterizing individual-level causality through intersection bounds derived from combined experimental and observational data. In finite samples, however, standard plug-in estimators systematically fail: they violate structural probability constraints and suffer from extremum bias induced by max-min operators, yielding spuriously narrow intervals. We propose a neural framework for finite-sample PNS estimation that resolves both pathologies. We introduce an anchored neural architecture that guarantees structural constraint satisfaction by construction. To correct extremum bias, we employ precision-corrected intersection-bound inference, leveraging Epistemic Neural Networks for scalable, high-dimensional uncertainty quantification. Empirical evaluations confirm that this approach maintains nominal coverage and exact constraint validity in high-dimensional regimes where standard estimators systematically undercover.
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All authors Gandharv Patil, Keyi Tang, Raquel Aoki, Leo Guelman

Machine Learning

Dr. Post-Training: A Data Regularization Perspective on LLM Post-Training

Data selection methods address a critical challenge in LLM post-training: effectively leveraging scarce, high-fidelity target data alongside abundant but imperfectly aligned general training data. In this work, we move beyond the data-selection framing and introduce Dr. Post-Training (Data-Regularized Post-Training), a novel framework that reconceptualizes general training data as a data-induced regularizer that prevents overfitting to the scarce target objective, rather than serving as a pool for selection. Specifically, our framework proposes that, at each training step, we construct a feasible set of model update directions using the general training data, and project the model update direction specified by the scarce target data onto that feasible set. Standard training and existing data selection methods arise as special cases with different choices of the data-induced regularizer, and these methods correspond to different points on a bias-variance spectrum with different regularization strengths. Building on this view, we propose a family of methods offering a richer design space and more flexible bias-variance tradeoffs. For practical LLM-scale use, we introduce careful system optimizations that realize these methods with minimal overhead. Extensive experiments across SFT, RLHF, and RLVR show that our methods outperform standard training and state-of-the-art data selection baselines, with the largest gains where the general and target data are most misaligned, and system benchmarks confirm their efficiency.
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All authors Pingbang Hu, Xueshen Liu, Z. Morley Mao, Jiaqi W. Ma

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.geo-ph

Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) provide a mesh-free framework for solving PDE-constrained inverse problems, but their extension to Bayesian inversion still faces a fundamental difficulty: prior distributions are typically defined in the weight space of neural networks, whereas physically meaningful prior assumptions are more naturally expressed in function space. In this study, we introduce a unified framework, termed functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks (fpBPINN), to incorporate functional priors into Bayesian PINN-based inversion. We consider two complementary approaches. The first is a functional-prior-informed Bayesian PINN (FPI-BPINN), in which a neural network weight prior is learned to be consistent with a prescribed functional prior, and Bayesian inference is subsequently performed in weight space. The second is function-space particle-based variational inference for PINNs (fParVI-PINN), which performs Bayesian estimation using ParVI directly in function space. We also show that random Fourier features (RFF) play an important role in representing Gaussian functional priors with neural networks and in improving posterior approximation. We applied the proposed approaches to one-dimensional seismic traveltime tomography and two-dimensional Darcy-flow permeability inversion. These numerical experiments showed that both approaches accurately estimated posterior distributions, highlighting the significance of introducing physically interpretable functional priors into Bayesian PINN-based inverse problems. We also identified the contrasting advantages of FPI-BPINN and fParVI-PINN, namely flexibility and accuracy, respectively.
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Machine Learning

From Causal Graphs to Markovian States: Multi-Order State Exposure for Deep RL

Online reinforcement learning (RL) relies on the Markov property for guaranteed performance, but real-world applications often lack well-defined states given raw observed variables. While causal RL has attracted growing interest, existing work typically assumes Markovian states are provided and uses causality only to accelerate learning. This leaves a fundamental gap: given a longitudinal causal graph over observed variables, how does one construct MDP states that provably satisfy the Markov property? We provide a procedure that constructs a provably minimal such state. In deep RL, the minimal representation alone empirically fails to improve performance, indicating that neural networks cannot automatically exploit Markovian minimality. We therefore propose MOSE (Multi-Order State Exposure), which exposes a single shared Q-function to history-based state constructions of orders 1 through $W$ simultaneously. An attention-based selection layer scores the dimensions of this combined input by their estimated relevance to value-function estimation and selects the high-scoring ones. Causal MOSE further constrains the selection layer to retain every variable of the minimal state, guaranteeing sufficiency while leaving the model free to admit useful redundancy. MOSE consistently outperforms both the minimal state construction and single-window policies on common benchmarks and synthetic datasets. Including the minimal representation alongside MOSE can further improve performance. Our results establish a core principle for causal deep RL: minimal sufficiency is not enough. Controlled redundancy gives the model flexibility to learn its state representation end-to-end. Causal state information provides structural guidance that can make this learning more efficient.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SY

A Behavioral Framework for Data-Driven Modeling of Nonlinear Systems in Vector-Valued Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

We generalize Jan Willems' behavioral approach to a class of discrete-time nonlinear systems in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Apart from linear time-invariant systems, this class covers nonlinear systems modeled by Volterra series and their autoregressive variants, as well as systems admitting Hammerstein-type state-space realizations. We apply the proposed framework to the problem of data-driven modeling of such systems, i.e., when simulation or control objectives for an unknown system are carried out without an explicit system identification step. To that end, we link the behavioral approach to two data-driven modeling methods in a vector-valued RKHS: (1) minimum-norm interpolation and (2) subspace identification.
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Thursday 7 May

Machine Learning

L-FNO: Lorentzian Fourier Neural Operator for Stochastic Event Dynamics

Modern operational systems face uncertainty even in routine conditions, where rare, bursty, and self-exciting events emerge from both exogenous covariates and endogenous event dynamics. Standard neural operators are typically trained as regression-style function-to-function models rather than conditional-intensity estimators, limiting their suitability for sparse event regimes. We introduce the Lorentzian Fourier Neural Operator (L-FNO), a stochastic neural operator that combines an FNO-style covariate path, Lorentzian spectral kernels for history-dependent excitation, and a likelihood-based training objective. We evaluate L-FNO on eight synthetic point-process benchmarks and three real-world datasets covering disease outbreak prediction and semiconductor fault or defect detection. L-FNO improves event likelihood, calibration diagnostics, and rare-event detection over regression- and likelihood-based neural operator baselines. These results show that structured spectral memory and likelihood-based learning provide effective inductive biases for neural operator models of stochastic event dynamics.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Masked Diffusion Language Models are Strong and Steerable Text-Based World Models for Agentic RL

Recent growth in reinforcement learning (RL) has surfaced a need for diverse, specialized training environments. Hand-curated environments with fixed task and reward difficulties become ineffective signals as model performance improves, and sparse rewards over long horizons induce mode collapse on specific workflows or tool structures. World models that simulate environment states have matched pure rollout performance, making them promising for scaling diversity on-demand. However, autoregressive (AR) world models suffer from a left-to-right bias preventing conditioning on globally interdependent state anchors such as tool schemas, prior turns, and expected outcomes. We (i) formalize text-based world modeling as a steerable transition-dynamics problem decomposed into initial state, task context, tool schemas, domain rules, and steering directives, and (ii) curate 239,403 grounded state-action trajectories spanning nine open-source environments and twelve frontier model families. We compare AR LMs and masked diffusion language models (MDLMs), showing MDLMs, via bidirectional anchor-aware denoising, achieve better coherence, groundedness, and empirically validated rollout diversity than LLMs over 4x their parameter size, at comparable inference latency. We introduce a plug-and-play GRPO training framework with deterministic state checks, and perform zero-shot transfer ablations on three OOD environments (ScienceWorld, ALFWorld, AppWorld) across three 1.2B-7B agent backbones (LFM2.5, Qwen3, Mistral), achieving up to 47% absolute gains over baselines without environment-specific fine-tuning. We further conduct behavioral analysis of failure modes under adversarial scenarios and human evaluation on realism, outcome correctness, and training utility. We open-source our work to encourage research in this direction.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

What Makes a Latent Thought Valid? Defining and Auditing Thought Representations in LLMs

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning improves the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet it writes steps as text and follows one reasoning path at a time, which limits the capabilities of such models. Latent reasoning methods replace these steps with continuous thought representations and claim that a thought representation substitutes for the written reasoning, compresses trajectories, distinguishes semantic content, and achieves superposition of multiple exploration paths at once. These claims concern the content of the thought representation, whereas the evaluations of these methods rely on downstream task accuracy, token counts, and analyses specific to each method. We formalize these claims as a valid thought representation space and prove that a space is valid if and only if its thought representations attain four properties, namely causality, minimality, separability, and stability, each of which follows from one claim. Translating these properties into four measures and auditing three training-free and three trained methods shows gaps in these claims that accuracy may not necessarily reveal. Training-free methods fail all four properties and do not encode the reasoning they are meant to replace, whereas trained methods generally improve substitution. The four properties and measures therefore provide a theoretically grounded evaluation beyond downstream task accuracy and expose failure modes that may guide future development of latent reasoning methods.
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Machine Learning

PyCC.id: A package for hypothesis-driven equation discovery with structural identifiability

Data-driven equation discovery is fundamentally an inverse problem that seeks to infer the governing differential equations of a system directly from time-series measurements. A known issue is the ill-conditioned nature of the inverse problem, which frequently produces multiple mathematical models that fit the data similarly well. One path to address this issue is by incorporating known hypotheses and constraints into the training phase beforehand. While this approach effectively reduces the search space, it still results in multiple candidate models, forcing practitioners to rely on post-hoc manual filtering based on their own domain expertise. A recent approach incorporates structural `skeletons' inspired by characteristic curves (CCs), defining a hypothesis-driven methodology. In this methodology, practitioners define a skeleton, which is associated with a family of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and then add their hypotheses and priors based on their domain knowledge to refine the obtained model iteratively. An important advantage of this approach is that some skeletons have demonstrable structural identifiability properties, which are useful for checking whether the skeleton is correct or should be discarded. Furthermore, this formalism enables the use of multiple equation discovery paradigms due to its modularity (such as neural networks, symbolic regression, and sparse regression). In this work, we present the Python library PyCC, which condenses these efforts into a flexible tool that allows researchers and engineers to seamlessly define their skeletons and hypotheses to discover ODEs from time-dependent data.
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Machine Learning

A Simple State Space Model Excels at Multivariate Time Series Classification

Structured state space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a promising foundation for sequence modeling, with Mamba-based architectures demonstrating strong performance through input-dependent state transitions, albeit at considerable complexity. However, their application to time-series classification (TSC) has been largely limited to Mamba-style architectures, leaving the broader SSM design space underexplored. We present the first systematic study spanning diagonal SSMs (S4D) and input-dependent SSMs (Mamba family) on large-scale TSC benchmarks, asking whether such complexity is necessary for top performance. Our results reveal a surprising finding: S4D consistently outperforms Mamba-based variants in both accuracy and efficiency, challenging the assumption that increased complexity translates to meaningful gains in TSC. Building on this, we introduce MS4, lightweight modifications to S4D via a linear input projection and channel-mixing mechanism, and MS4N, a normalized variant that stabilizes state dynamics with negligible overhead. Evaluated on 59 datasets across MONSTER (up to 60 million samples, 50K timesteps, 82 classes) and the UEA benchmark, against 15 baselines, MS4 and MS4N consistently outperform Mamba-based models while remaining more efficient, and MS4N matches or surpasses competing deep learning models that are roughly 2x and 10x larger in parameters. These results position lightweight structured SSMs as a compelling alternative to scaling complexity for TSC.
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All authors Hassan Saadatmand, Geoffrey I. Webb, Hamid Rezatofighi, Mahsa Salehi

Machine Learning

Orth-Dion: Eliminating Geometric Mismatch in Distributed Low-Rank Spectral Optimization

Low-rank gradient compression reduces communication in distributed training by representing updates with rank-$r$ factors. Dion is a recent method that approximates Muon, a spectral optimizer that orthogonalizes momentum, using one step of power iteration followed by column normalization (rescaling each column of the right factor to unit length). This makes it compatible with fully sharded data parallel training, but it converges more slowly than full-rank spectral methods. We show that this gap is geometric: column normalization does not yield the rank-$r$ polar factor that Muon implicitly targets, so the resulting direction violates the dual-norm constraint of the low-rank spectral geometry, and the rate picks up an extra factor of $\sqrt{r}$ even though the low-rank approximation of the gradient itself is accurate. The same mismatch enters the smoothness term and the error-feedback recursion in the analysis, which has a knock-on effect on empirical performance. We propose Orth-Dion, which replaces column normalization with QR orthogonalization of the right factor. Under non-Euclidean smoothness, with $L_r$ the curvature constant along rank-$r$ directions, Orth-Dion attains rate $O(\sqrt{L_r/T})$, matching exact spectral methods at the same per-step communication cost as Dion. The proof removes the bounded-drift assumption common in prior error-feedback analyses via a self-consistent fixed-point argument, and uses a time-averaged contraction that only requires the error sequence to contract on average rather than at every step. Experiments on large-scale language model pre-training validate the predicted $\sqrt{r}$ scaling and show that Orth-Dion closes the convergence gap to Muon at Dion's communication cost.
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All authors Tatsuhiro Nakamori, Laura Gomezjurado Gonzalez, Ganesh Talluri, Ansh Tiwari, Hideyuki Kawashima, Ioannis Mitliagkas, Guillaume Rabusseau, Hiroki Naganuma

Machine Learning

Preference Instability in Reward Models: Detection and Mitigation via Sparse Autoencoders

Preference learning in large language models relies on reward models as proxies for human judgment. However, these models frequently exhibit preference instability, producing contradictory preference assignments in response to subtle, meaning-preserving input variations. We analyze this instability at the representation level under three semantic-preserving perturbation types: paraphrasing, pattern injection, and backdoor triggers. We attribute this instability to over-reliance on predictive yet brittle features, which we term unstable features, and isolate them via Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) in a sparse latent space where benign and perturbed inputs activate distinctly separable patterns. Building on this separability, we propose two SAE-based instability mitigation strategies: SAE Feature Steering, which identifies and suppresses anomalously activated features at inference, and SAE Residual Correction, which learns adaptive adjustments over SAE features to restore correct preferences. Our methods substantially reduce incorrect preference assignments on harmlessness and hallucination benchmarks while preserving benign performance and general utility on other tasks, without retraining the reward model.
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All authors Shunchang Liu, Xin Chen, Belen Martin Urcelay, Francesco Croce

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Decentralized Conformal Novelty Detection via Quantized Model Exchange

This work studies decentralized novelty detection with global false discovery rate (FDR) control across heterogeneous composite null distributions, without sharing the raw data due to privacy and bandwidth considerations. We propose a framework based on the exchange of quantized surrogate models, allowing independent agents to share low-precision representations of locally learned non-conformity score functions. We prove that evaluating data against these quantized composite scores preserves conditional exchangeability, providing rigorous finite-sample guarantees for global FDR control. Empirical studies on synthetic datasets confirm our theoretical results, demonstrating that the proposed approach maintains competitive statistical power while drastically reducing the communication cost.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Research on Security Enhancement Methods for Adversarial Robust Large Language Model Intelligent Agents for Medical Decision-Making Tasks

Motivated by the challenge to improve the adversarial robustness, security, and trust of medical decision making intelligent agents, this study develops a full-link security enhancement framework, which describes "input risk perception - medical evidence constraint - knowledge consistency verification - decision confidence reweighting - security output control - adversarial feedback update." We propose ARSM-Agent and define a weighted joint objective consisting of decision accuracy loss, adversarial robustness loss, safety refusal loss, and knowledge consistency loss, with weights of 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.2, respectively. The whole medical decision formulation is implemented by multi-module collaborative linkage. We verify that the algorithm is more efficient than four baselines, including LLM-Agent, Retrieval-Agent, Filter-Agent, and Adv-Train-Agent. Under semantic perturbation, prompt injection, drug-name confusion, and false-evidence attacks, ARSM-Agent reduces the overall attack success rate to 8.7% and achieves a knowledge consistency score of 0.91. Ablation experiments quantify each module's contribution: removing risk perception, evidence retrieval, consistency verification, and confidence reweighting reduces accuracy by 6.7%, 9.1%, 7.6%, and 4.4%, respectively, and increases attack success rate by 13.8%, 11.1%, 8.6%, and 6.9%. The proposed approach addresses key security issues of medical decision making intelligent agents, obtains secure decision making in challenging scenarios, and provides reliable intelligent support for medical decision-making intelligent agents.
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Machine Learning

Can LLMs Predict Polymer Physics Just by Reading Synthesis and Processing Prose?

Can large language models predict physical and mechanical polymer properties simply by reading unstructured scientific prose? Polymer performance is rarely determined by chemical structure alone; identical nominal polymers can exhibit drastically different behaviors depending on their synthesis route, processing history, morphology, and testing conditions. Yet, state-of-the-art polymer property models typically rely on structure-only representations – such as SMILES or molecular graphs – which strip away this vital experimental context. In this work, we introduce PolyLM, a natural-language-only, process- and condition-aware framework that predicts materials performance directly from full-text literature. By circumventing structural inputs entirely, PolyLM preserves the nuanced, unstructured descriptions of synthesis and processing reported by domain scientists. To train this framework, we curated an unprecedented, literature-scale dataset encompassing 185,000 scientific papers and over 276,400 unique polymer samples across 22 physical, mechanical, and thermal properties. We fine-tuned a massive 9-billion-parameter language model (Qwen3.5-9B) using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and task-level uncertainty weighting. Evaluated on 68,283 held-out observations, the model achieves remarkably high predictive accuracy, establishing new state-of-the-art benchmarks for complex properties. Across the 22 diverse targets, the model achieves a median $R^2$ of 0.74, with predictions for key thermal, mechanical, and physicochemical properties frequently surpassing an $R^2$ of 0.80. These results unequivocally demonstrate that natural language is a powerful, highly scalable interface for realistic materials performance prediction.
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All authors Yuchu Liu, Rui Zhu, Jingwei Xiong, Haixu Tang

Machine Learning

HyperTransport: Amortized Conditioning of T2I Generative Models

As foundation models grow in capability, the ability to efficiently and reliably control their behavior becomes critical. Fine-tuning these models can be costly, and while prompting can be practical for controllability, it remains fragile due to models' high sensitivity to exact prompt wording and structure. This brittleness has driven interest in activation steering techniques that offer more stable and predictable control over model behavior. However, existing activation steering methods require per-concept optimization, which makes them ill-suited to deployment scenarios where the concept set is large, evolving, or only specified at request time: each new concept incurs at least minutes of optimization on the target model. We propose HyperTransport, a hypernetwork framework that amortizes this cost by mapping embeddings from a pretrained encoder (CLIP in our instantiation) directly to intervention parameters, trained end-to-end using an optimal transport loss. Once trained, HyperTransport produces each new intervention in a single hypernetwork forward pass, 3600-7000x faster than per-concept fitting. On concepts unseen during training, it matches the strongest per-concept baselines at inducing the target concept. By decoupling concept representation from intervention prediction, HyperTransport combines three capabilities that no existing approach offers as a set: amortized steering for open-ended concept sets, continuous interpretable strength control, and cross-modal conditioning where reference images can directly steer text-based generation. We validate HyperTransport on DMD2 and Nitro-1-PixArt across 167 held-out test concepts via CLIP-based metrics, a VLM-as-a-judge evaluation, and a user study. In pairwise comparisons, both human and VLM judges prefer HyperTransport over prompting ~2x as often.
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All authors Valentino Maiorca, Eleonora Gualdoni, Xavier Suau, Marco Cuturi, Luca Zappella, Pau Rodríguez