Machine Learning
MICA: Multivariate Infini Compressive Attention for Time Series Forecasting
Willa Potosnak, Nina Żukowska, Michał Wiliński et al. (+4 more)
Multivariate
forecasting with
Transformers faces a core scalability challenge: modeling cross-channel dependencies via
attention compounds
attention's quadratic sequence complexity with quadratic channel scaling, making full cross-channel
attention impractical for high-dimensional time series. We propose Multivariate Infini Compressive
Attention (MICA), an architectural design to extend channel-independent
Transformers to channel-dependent
forecasting. By adapting efficient
attention techniques from the sequence dimension to the channel dimension, MICA adds a cross-channel
attention mechanism to channel-independent backbones that scales linearly with channel count and context length. We evaluate channel-independent
Transformer architectures with and without MICA across multiple
forecasting benchmarks. MICA reduces forecast error over its channel-independent counterparts by 5.4% on average and up to 25.4% on individual
datasets, highlighting the importance of explicit cross-channel modeling. Moreover, models with MICA rank first among deep multivariate
Transformer and MLP baselines. MICA models also scale more efficiently with respect to both channel count and context length than
Transformer baselines that compute
attention across both the temporal and channel dimensions, establishing compressive
attention as a practical solution for scalable multivariate
forecasting.
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All authors Willa Potosnak, Nina Żukowska, Michał Wiliński, Dan Howarth, Ignacy Stępka, Mononito Goswami, Artur Dubrawski
Machine Learning
Conformal Margin Risk Minimization: An Envelope Framework for Robust Learning under Label Noise
Yuanjie Shi, Peihong Li, Zijian Zhang et al. (+2 more)
Most methods for learning with noisy labels require privileged knowledge such as noise transition
matrices, clean subsets or pretrained feature extractors, resources typically unavailable when robustness is most needed. We propose Conformal Margin Risk Minimization (CMRM), a plug-and-play envelope framework that improves any classification loss under label noise by adding a single
quantile-calibrated regularization term, with no privileged knowledge or training pipeline modification. CMRM measures the confidence margin between the observed label and competing labels, and thresholds it with a conformal
quantile estimated per batch to focus training on high-margin samples while suppressing likely mislabeled ones. We derive a learning bound for CMRM under arbitrary label noise requiring only mild regularity of the margin distribution. Across five base methods and six
benchmarks with synthetic and real-world noise, CMRM consistently improves accuracy (up to +3.39%), reduces conformal prediction set size (up to -20.44%) and does not hurt under 0% noise, showing that CMRM captures a method-agnostic uncertainty signal that existing mechanisms did not exploit.
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All authors Yuanjie Shi, Peihong Li, Zijian Zhang, Janardhan Rao Doppa, Yan Yan
Machine Learning
Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction
Xiayin Lou and Peng Luo
Machine learning predictors are rarely deployed on data that match the data they were calibrated on. Conformal prediction and its risk-control generalization promise distribution-free guarantees at deployment, but only under exchangeability or a
covariate shift whose likelihood ratio is known exactly – and the estimated-ratio case, the one that occurs in practice, is explicitly open, out of reach of the
Bayesian construction available under exchangeability. We reach it from a different starting point: pushing a Dirichlet process prior on the calibration distribution through the likelihood ratio yields the exact
Bayesian posterior over the deployed risk. That posterior is exact given the weight function, which at deployment is itself estimated, so we further prove finite-sample upper and lower bounds on the risk the selected threshold actually incurs, in terms of the weight-estimation error and the conditional shift. On synthetic and real
covariate shifts, in regression and classification, the realized failure rate then stays close to target where shift-blind selection fails, and what deployment receives is a posterior over the risk of every threshold rather than a single number.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from nlin.CD
Anticipating tipping in spatiotemporal systems with machine learning
Smita Deb, Zheng-Meng Zhai, Mulugeta Haile et al. (+1 more)
In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of parameter-adaptable reservoir computing has been applied to predict tipping in systems described by low-dimensional
stochastic differential equations. However, anticipating tipping in complex spatiotemporal dynamical systems remains a significant open problem. The ability to forecast not only the occurrence but also the precise timing of such tipping events is crucial for providing the actionable lead time necessary for timely mitigation. By utilizing the mathematical approach of non-negative
matrix factorization to generate dimensionally reduced spatiotemporal data as input, we exploit parameter-adaptable reservoir computing to accurately anticipate tipping. We demonstrate that the tipping time can be identified within a narrow prediction window across a variety of spatiotemporal dynamical systems, as well as in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5)
climate projections. Furthermore, we show that this reservoir-computing framework, utilizing reduced input data, is robust against common
forecasting challenges and significantly alleviates the computational overhead associated with processing full spatiotemporal data.
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All authors Smita Deb, Zheng-Meng Zhai, Mulugeta Haile, Ying-Cheng Lai
Machine Learning
Quality-preserving Model for Electronics Production Quality Tests Reduction
Noufa Haneefa, Teddy Lazebnik and Einav Peretz-Andersson
Manufacturing test flows in high-volume electronics production are typically fixed during product development and executed unchanged on every unit, even as failure patterns and process conditions evolve. This protects quality, but it also imposes unnecessary test cost, while existing data-driven methods mostly optimize static test subsets and neither adapt online to changing defect distributions nor explicitly control escape risk. In this study, we present an adaptive test-selection framework that combines offline minimum-cost diagnostic subset construction using greedy set cover with an online Thompson-sampling multi-armed bandit that switches between full and reduced test plans using a rolling process-stability signal. We evaluate the framework on two printed
circuit board assembly stages-Functional
Circuit Test and End-of-Line test-covering 28,000 board runs. Offline analysis identified zero-escape reduced plans that cut test time by 18.78% in Functional
Circuit Test and 91.57% in End-of-Line testing. Under temporal validation with real concept drift, static reduction produced 110 escaped defects in Functional
Circuit Test and 8 in End-of-Line, whereas the adaptive policy reduced escapes to zero by reverting to fuller coverage when instability emerged in practice. These results show that online learning can preserve manufacturing quality while reducing test burden, offering a practical route to adaptive test planning across production domains, and offering both economic and logistics improvement for companies.
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Machine Learning
From Load Tests to Live Streams: Graph Embedding-Based Anomaly Detection in Microservice Architectures
Srinidhi Madabhushi, Pranesh Vyas, Swathi Vaidyanathan et al. (+3 more)
Prime Video regularly conducts load tests to simulate the viewer traffic spikes seen during live events such as Thursday Night Football as well as
video-on-demand (VOD) events such as Rings of Power. While these stress tests validate system capacity, they can sometimes miss service behaviors unique to real event traffic. We present a graph-based anomaly detection system that identifies under-represented services using unsupervised node-level graph
embeddings. Built on a GCN-GAE, our approach learns structural representations from directed, weighted service graphs at minute-level resolution and flags anomalies based on cosine similarity between load test and event
embeddings. The system identifies incident-related services that are documented and demonstrates early detection capability. We also introduce a preliminary synthetic anomaly injection framework for controlled evaluation that show promising precision (96%) and low false positive rate (0.08%), though recall (58%) remains limited under conservative propagation assumptions. This framework demonstrates practical utility within
Prime Video while also surfacing methodological lessons and directions, providing a foundation for broader application across microservice ecosystems.
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All authors Srinidhi Madabhushi, Pranesh Vyas, Swathi Vaidyanathan, Mayur Kurup, Elliott Nash, Yegor Silyutin
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Visual prompting reimagined: The power of the Activation Prompts
Yihua Zhang, Hongkang Li, Yuguang Yao et al. (+5 more)
Visual prompting (VP) has emerged as a popular method to repurpose pretrained
vision models for adaptation to downstream tasks. Unlike conventional model fine-tuning techniques, VP introduces a universal perturbation directly into the input data to facilitate task-specific fine-tuning rather than modifying model parameters. However, there exists a noticeable performance gap between VP and conventional fine-tuning methods, highlighting an unexplored realm in theory and practice to understand and advance the input-level VP to reduce its current performance gap. Towards this end, we introduce a generalized concept, termed activation
prompt (AP), which extends the scope of the input-level VP by enabling universal perturbations to be applied to activation maps within the intermediate layers of the model. By using AP to revisit the problem of VP and employing it as an analytical tool, we demonstrate the intrinsic limitations of VP in both performance and efficiency, revealing why input-level prompting may lack effectiveness compared to AP, which exhibits a model-dependent layer preference. We show that AP is closely related to normalization tuning in convolutional neural networks and
vision transformers, although each model type has distinct layer preferences for prompting. We also theoretically elucidate the rationale behind such a preference by analyzing global features across layers. Through extensive experiments across 29
datasets and various model architectures, we provide a comprehensive performance analysis of AP, comparing it with VP and parameter-efficient fine-tuning baselines. Our results demonstrate AP's superiority in both accuracy and efficiency, considering factors such as time, parameters,
memory usage, and throughput.
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All authors Yihua Zhang, Hongkang Li, Yuguang Yao, Aochuan Chen, Shuai Zhang, Pin-Yu Chen, Meng Wang, Sijia Liu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.AP
Cost-sensitive retraining via posterior learning debt
Harrison Katz
Deployed prediction systems are often retrained on fixed calendars, even when model staleness and retraining burden vary over time. This short communication formulates retraining for
Bayesian prediction systems as a cost-sensitive predictive-regret decision. The central monitoring state is posterior learning debt, defined as the Kullback–Leibler divergence from a reference shadow posterior to the deployed frozen posterior. In the decision layer, a retraining cost is compared with the expected one-period predictive regret of waiting. A continuous-severity version retrains when calibrated expected regret exceeds the retraining cost, while the familiar two-state excess-loss rule is a special case. The empirical study is an exact-state proof-of-concept in a synthetic conjugate simulation with warm-started deployed and shadow normal-inverse-gamma posteriors, separate update, monitoring, and evaluation batches, lagged deployment actions, expanded baseline grids, and score-unit sensitivity. Under the primary 75th-percentile score-unit scaling, an age-adjusted debt-threshold policy improves on tuned calendar retraining in all 72 non-stable scenario
cells and on tuned CUSUM in 58 of 72
cells, with mean relative objectives 0.677 and 0.975, respectively. Debt-utility and hybrid-utility policies also improve strongly over tuned calendar retraining, but they do not dominate tuned CUSUM. Median and mean score-unit sensitivities show the same main calendar result, while the CUSUM comparison remains policy-dependent. The contribution is a transparent decision layer for deployed
Bayesian prediction systems, not a universal replacement for drift detection.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.comp-ph
Operator Learning for Predicting Bulk Wave Parameters of Spectral Wave Models
Shukai Cai, Sourav Dutta, Mark Loveland et al. (+4 more)
The impact of wave-induced forcing on the mean water level and nearshore currents is typically modeled through excess momentum fluxes, also known as radiation stresses, and their spatial gradients. Accurate storm surge prediction requires coupled circulation and wave models, but the high computational cost of numerical wave models limits their temporal resolution. In this work, we explore a proof-of-concept application of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets) as a surrogate for the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) numerical wave model. Unlike grid-dependent surrogate models, DeepONets learn the underlying continuous operator, and thus, can provide highly efficient prediction while enabling discretization-invariant inference. The proposed surrogate model is evaluated using two distinct 1-D and 2-D steady-state numerical examples with variable boundary wave conditions and wind fields. When applied to a realistic numerical example of steady-state wave simulation in Duck, NC, the DeepONet surrogate improves computational efficiency by four orders of magnitude. Furthermore, the model demonstrates consistently high accuracy in predicting the significant wave height and the x- and y- components of the radiation stress gradient, by achieving relative L_2 errors bounded by 1.91%, 10.98%, and 6.88%, respectively, across all unseen test scenarios.
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All authors Shukai Cai, Sourav Dutta, Mark Loveland, Eirik Valseth, Peter Rivera-Casillas, Corey Trahan, Clint Dawson
Machine Learning
The Depth Ceiling: On the Limits of Large Language Models in Discovering Latent Planning
Yi Xu, Philipp Jettkant and Laura Ruis
The viability of chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring hinges on models being unable to reason effectively in their latent representations. Yet little is known about the limits of such latent
reasoning in LLMs. We test these limits by studying whether models can discover multi-step planning strategies without supervision on intermediate steps and execute them latently, within a single forward pass. Using graph path-finding tasks that precisely control the number of required latent planning steps, we uncover a striking limitation unresolved by massive scaling: tiny
transformers trained from scratch discover strategies requiring up to three latent steps, fine-tuned GPT-4o and Qwen3-32B reach five, and GPT-5.4 attains seven under few-shot prompting. Although the maximum latent planning depth models can learn during training is five, the discovered strategy generalizes up to eight latent steps at test-time. This reveals a dissociation between the ability to discover a latent strategy under final-answer supervision alone and the ability to execute it once discovered. If similar limits hold more broadly, strategies requiring multiple coordinated latent planning steps may need to be explicitly taught or externalized, lending credence to CoT monitoring.
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Machine Learning
Neural Computers
Mingchen Zhuge, Changsheng Zhao, Haozhe Liu et al. (+16 more)
We propose a new frontier: Neural Computers (NCs) that unify computation,
memory, and I/O of traditional computers in a learned runtime state. Our long-term goal is the Completely Neural Computer (CNC): the mature, general-purpose realization of this emerging machine form, with stable execution, explicit reprogramming, and durable capability reuse. As an initial step, we study whether elementary NC primitives can be learned solely from collected I/O traces, without instrumented program state. Concretely, we instantiate NCs as
video models that roll out screen frames from instructions, pixels, and user actions (when available) in CLI and GUI settings. We show that NCs can acquire elementary interface primitives, especially I/O
alignment and short-horizon control, while routine reuse, controlled updates, and symbolic stability remain challenging. We outline a roadmap toward CNCs, to establish a new computing paradigm beyond today's
agents and conventional computers.
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All authors Mingchen Zhuge, Changsheng Zhao, Haozhe Liu, Zijian Zhou, Shuming Liu, Wenyi Wang, Ernie Chang, Gael Le Lan, Junjie Fei, Wenxuan Zhang, Yasheng Sun, Zhipeng Cai, Zechun Liu, Yunyang Xiong, Yining Yang, Yuandong Tian, Yangyang Shi, Vikas Chandra, Jürgen Schmidhuber
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data for Recommender Systems
Youssef Abdou
In recommender systems, collecting, storing, and processing large-scale interaction data is increasingly costly in terms of time, energy, and computation, yet it remains unclear when additional data stops providing meaningful gains. This paper investigates how offline recommendation performance evolves as the size of the training
dataset increases and whether a saturation point can be observed. We implemented a reproducible Python evaluation workflow with two established toolkits, LensKit and RecBole, included 11 large public
datasets with at least 7 million interactions, and evaluated 10 tool-
algorithm combinations. Using absolute stratified user sampling, we trained models on nine sample sizes from 100,000 to 100,000,000 interactions and measured NDCG@10. Overall, raw NDCG usually increased with sample size, with no observable saturation point. To make result groups comparable, we applied min-max normalization within each group, revealing a clear positive trend in which around 75% of the points at the largest completed sample size also achieved the group's best observed performance. A late-stage slope analysis over the final 10-30% of each group further supported this upward trend: the interquartile range remained entirely non-negative with a median near 1.0. In summary, for traditional recommender systems on typical user-item interaction data, incorporating more training data remains primarily beneficial, while weaker scaling behavior is concentrated in atypical
dataset cases and in the algorithmic outlier RecBole BPR under our setup.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Attention Flows: Tracing LLM Conceptual Engagement via Story Summaries
Rebecca M. M. Hicke, Sil Hamilton, David Mimno et al. (+1 more)
Although LLM context lengths have grown, there is evidence that their ability to integrate information across long-form texts has not kept pace. We evaluate one such understanding task: generating summaries of novels. When human authors of summaries compress a story, they reveal what they consider narratively important. Therefore, by comparing human and LLM-authored summaries, we can assess whether models mirror human patterns of conceptual engagement with texts. To measure conceptual engagement, we align sentences from 150 human-written novel summaries with the specific chapters they reference. We demonstrate the difficulty of this
alignment task, which indicates the complexity of summarization as a task. We then generate and align additional summaries by nine state-of-the-art LLMs for each of the 150 reference texts. Comparing the human and model-authored summaries, we find both stylistic differences between the texts and differences in how humans and LLMs distribute their focus throughout a narrative, with models emphasizing the ends of texts. Comparing human narrative engagement with model
attention mechanisms suggests explanations for degraded narrative comprehension and targets for future development. We release our
dataset to support future research.
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All authors Rebecca M. M. Hicke, Sil Hamilton, David Mimno, Ross Deans Kristensen-McLachlan
Machine Learning
ODE-free Neural Flow Matching for One-Step Generative Modeling
Xiao Shou
Diffusion and flow matching models generate samples by learning time-dependent vector fields whose integration transports noise to data, requiring tens to hundreds of network evaluations at inference. We instead learn the transport map directly. We propose Optimal Transport Neural Flow Matching (OT-NFM), an ODE-free generative framework that parameterizes the flow map with neural flows, enabling true one-step generation with a single forward pass. We show that naive flow-map training suffers from mean collapse, where inconsistent noise-data pairings drive all outputs toward the data mean. We prove that consistent coupling is necessary for non-degenerate learning and address this using optimal transport pairings with scalable minibatch and online coupling strategies. Experiments on synthetic
benchmarks and image generation tasks (MNIST and CIFAR-10) demonstrate competitive sample quality while reducing inference to a single network evaluation.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
Towards Resilient Intrusion Detection in CubeSats: Challenges, TinyML Solutions, and Future Directions
Yasamin Fayyaz, Li Yang and Khalil El-Khatib
CubeSats have revolutionized access to space by providing affordable and accessible platforms for research and education. However, their reliance on Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) components and open-source software has introduced significant cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Ensuring the cybersecurity of CubeSats is vital as they play increasingly important roles in space missions. Traditional security measures, such as intrusion detection systems (IDS), are impractical for CubeSats due to resource constraints and unique operational environments. This paper provides an in-depth review of current cybersecurity practices for CubeSats, highlighting limitations and identifying gaps in existing methods. Additionally, it explores non-cyber anomaly detection techniques that offer insights into adaptable
algorithms and deployment strategies suitable for CubeSat constraints. Open research problems are identified, including the need for resource-efficient intrusion detection mechanisms, evaluation of IDS solutions under realistic mission scenarios, development of autonomous response systems, and creation of cybersecurity frameworks. The addition of TinyML into CubeSat systems is explored as a promising solution to address these challenges, offering resource-efficient, real-time intrusion detection capabilities. Future research directions are proposed, such as integrating cybersecurity with health monitoring systems, and fostering collaboration between cybersecurity researchers and space domain experts.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
ProofSketcher: Hybrid LLM + Lightweight Proof Checker for Reliable Math/Logic Reasoning
Kranthi Kommuru, Kunal Khanvilkar and Gaurav Parekh
The large
language models (LLMs) might produce a persuasive argument within mathematical and logical fields, although such argument often includes some minor missteps, including the entire omission of side conditions, invalid inference patterns, or appeals to a lemma that cannot be derived logically out of the context being discussed. These omissions are infamously hard to notice solely out of the text, as even the misconstrued construction still may seem mostly accurate. Conversely, interactive
theorem provers like Lean and Coq have rigorous reliability by ensuring that syntactic and semantic statements only accept statements that can pass all the syntactic and semantic steps in the program which is a small trusted kernel of the
language type-checks with. Despite the fact that this technique provides strong guarantees, it comes at quite a heavy price: the evidence must be completely formalized, and the evidence user or a auxiliary search program must provide an avalanche of low-level information. This paper presents a hybrid pipeline where an LLM generates a typed proof sketch in a compact DSL and a lightweight trusted kernel expands the sketch into explicit proof obligations.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from physics.ao-ph
Calibration of a neural network ocean closure for improved mean state and variability
Pavel Perezhogin, Alistair Adcroft and Laure Zanna
Global ocean models exhibit biases in the mean state and variability, particularly at coarse resolution, where mesoscale eddies are unresolved. To address these biases, parameterization coefficients are typically tuned ad hoc. Here, we formulate parameter tuning as a calibration problem using Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI). We optimize parameters of a neural network parameterization of mesoscale eddies in two idealized ocean models at coarse resolution. The calibrated parameterization reduces errors by factors of 1.7-3.3 in the time-averaged fluid interfaces and their variability compared to the unparameterized model, depending on the metric and configuration. The EKI method is robust to noise in time-averaged statistics arising from chaotic ocean dynamics. Furthermore, we propose an efficient calibration protocol that bypasses integration to statistical
equilibrium by carefully choosing an initial condition. These results demonstrate that systematic calibration can substantially improve coarse-resolution ocean simulations and provide a practical pathway for reducing biases in global ocean models.
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Machine Learning
Bridging Theory and Practice in Crafting Robust Spiking Reservoirs
Ruggero Freddi, Nicolas Seseri, Diana Nigrisoli et al. (+1 more)
Spiking reservoir computing provides an energy-efficient approach to temporal processing, but reliably tuning reservoirs to operate at the edge-of-chaos is challenging due to experimental uncertainty. This work bridges abstract notions of criticality and practical stability by introducing and exploiting the robustness interval, an operational measure of the hyperparameter range over which a reservoir maintains performance above task-dependent thresholds. Through systematic evaluations of Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) architectures on both static (MNIST) and temporal (synthetic Ball Trajectories) tasks, we identify consistent monotonic trends in the robustness interval across a broad spectrum of network configurations: the robustness-interval width decreases with presynaptic connection density $\beta$ (i.e., directly with sparsity) and directly with the firing threshold $\theta$. We further identify specific $(\beta, \theta)$ pairs that preserve the analytical mean-field critical point $w_{\text{crit}}$, revealing iso-performance
manifolds in the hyperparameter space. Control experiments on Erdős-Rényi graphs show the phenomena persist beyond small-world
topologies. Finally, our results show that $w_{\text{crit}}$ consistently falls within empirical high-performance regions, validating $w_{\text{crit}}$ as a robust starting coordinate for parameter search and fine-tuning. To ensure reproducibility, the full Python code is publicly available.
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All authors Ruggero Freddi, Nicolas Seseri, Diana Nigrisoli, Alessio Basti
Machine Learning
Toward a universal foundation model for graph-structured data
Sakib Mostafa, Lei Xing and Md. Tauhidul Islam
Graphs are a central representation in biomedical research, capturing molecular interaction networks, gene regulatory
circuits,
cell–
cell communication maps, and knowledge graphs. Despite their importance, currently there is not a broadly reusable foundation model available for graph analysis comparable to those that have transformed
language and
vision. Existing graph neural networks are typically trained on a single
dataset and learn representations specific only to that graph's node features,
topology, and label space, limiting their ability to transfer across domains. This lack of generalization is particularly problematic in biology and medicine, where networks vary substantially across cohorts, assays, and institutions. Here we introduce a graph foundation model designed to learn transferable structural representations that are not specific to specific node identities or feature schemes. Our approach leverages feature-agnostic graph properties, including degree statistics, centrality measures, community structure indicators, and
diffusion-based signatures, and encodes them as structural
prompts. These
prompts are integrated with a message-passing backbone to embed diverse graphs into a shared representation space. The model is pretrained once on heterogeneous graphs and subsequently reused on unseen
datasets with minimal adaptation. Across multiple
benchmarks, our pretrained model matches or exceeds strong supervised baselines while demonstrating superior zero-shot and few-shot generalization on held-out graphs. On the SagePPI
benchmark, supervised fine-tuning of the pretrained backbone achieves a mean ROC-AUC of 95.5%, a gain of 21.8% over the best supervised message-passing baseline. The proposed technique thus provides a unique approach toward reusable, foundation-scale models for graph-structured data in biomedical and network science applications.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.GT
Revisiting Fairness Impossibility with Endogenous Behavior
Elizabeth Maggie Penn and John W. Patty
In many real-world settings, institutions can and do adjust the consequences attached to algorithmic classification decisions, such as the size of fines, sentence lengths, or benefit levels. We refer to these consequences as the stakes associated with classification. These stakes can give rise to behavioral responses to classification, as people adjust their actions in anticipation of how they will be classified. Much of the algorithmic
fairness literature evaluates classification outcomes while holding behavior fixed, treating behavioral differences across groups as exogenous features of the environment. Under this assumption, the stakes of classification play no role in shaping outcomes. We revisit classic impossibility results in algorithmic
fairness in a setting where people respond strategically to classification. We show that, in this environment, the well-known incompatibility between error-rate balance and predictive parity disappears, but only by potentially introducing a qualitatively different form of unequal treatment. Concretely, we construct a two-stage design in which a classifier first standardizes its statistical performance across groups, and then adjusts stakes so as to induce comparable patterns of behavior. This requires treating groups differently in the consequences attached to identical classification decisions. Our results demonstrate that
fairness in strategic settings cannot be assessed solely by how
algorithms map data into decisions. Rather, our analysis treats the human consequences of classification as primary design variables, introduces normative criteria governing their use, and shows that their interaction with statistical
fairness criteria generates qualitatively new tradeoffs. Our aim is to make these tradeoffs precise and explicit.
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Machine Learning
The Master Key Hypothesis: Unlocking Cross-Model Capability Transfer via Linear Subspace Alignment
Rishab Balasubramanian, Pin-Jie Lin, Rituraj Sharma et al. (+6 more)
We investigate whether post-trained capabilities can be transferred across models without retraining, with a focus on transfer across different model scales. We propose the Master Key Hypothesis, which states that model capabilities correspond to directions in a low-dimensional latent subspace that induce specific behaviors and are transferable across models through linear
alignment. Based on this hypothesis, we introduce UNLOCK, a training-free and label-free framework that extracts a capability direction by contrasting activations between capability-present and capability-absent Source variants, aligns it with a Target model through a low-rank linear transformation, and applies it at inference time to elicit the behavior. Experiments on
reasoning behaviors, including Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and mathematical
reasoning, demonstrate substantial improvements across model scales without training. For example, transferring CoT
reasoning from Qwen1.5-14B to Qwen1.5-7B yields an accuracy gain of 12.1% on MATH, and transferring a mathematical
reasoning direction from Qwen3-4B-Base to Qwen3-14B-Base improves AGIEval Math accuracy from 61.1% to 71.3%, surpassing the 67.8% achieved by the 14B post-trained model. Our analysis shows that the success of transfer depends on the capabilities learned during pre-training, and that our intervention amplifies latent capabilities by sharpening the output distribution toward successful
reasoning trajectories.
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All authors Rishab Balasubramanian, Pin-Jie Lin, Rituraj Sharma, Anjie Fang, Fardin Abdi, Viktor Rozgic, Zheng Du, Mohit Bansal, Tu Vu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
The Illusion of Superposition? A Principled Analysis of Latent Thinking in Language Models
Michael Rizvi-Martel, Guillaume Rabusseau and Marius Mosbach
Latent
reasoning via continuous chain-of-thoughts (Latent CoT) has emerged as a promising alternative to discrete CoT
reasoning. Operating in continuous space increases expressivity and has been hypothesized to enable superposition: the ability to maintain multiple candidate solutions simultaneously within a single representation. Despite theoretical arguments, it remains unclear whether
language models actually leverage superposition when
reasoning using latent CoTs. We investigate this question across three regimes: a training-free regime that constructs latent thoughts as convex combinations of
token embeddings, a fine-tuned regime where a base model is adapted to produce latent thoughts, and a from-scratch regime where a model is trained entirely with latent thoughts to solve a given task. Using Logit Lens and entity-level probing to analyze internal representations, we find that only models trained from scratch exhibit signs of using superposition. In the training-free and fine-tuned regimes, we find that the superposition either collapses or is not used at all, with models discovering shortcut solutions instead. We argue that this is due to two complementary phenomena: i) pretraining on natural
language data biases models to commit to a
token in the last layers ii) capacity has a huge effect on which solutions a model favors. Together, our results offer a unified explanation for when and why superposition arises in continuous chain-of-thought
reasoning, and identify the conditions under which it collapses.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DC
ForkKV: Scaling Multi-LoRA Agent Serving via Copy-on-Write Disaggregated KV Cache
Shao Wang, Rui Ren and Lin Gui
The serving paradigm of large
language models (LLMs) is rapidly shifting towards complex multi-
agent workflows where specialized
agents collaborate over massive shared contexts. While Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) enables the efficient co-hosting of these specialized
agents on a single base model, it introduces a critical
memory footprint bottleneck during serving. Specifically, unique LoRA activations cause Key-Value (KV) cache divergence across
agents, rendering traditional prefix caching ineffective for shared contexts. This forces redundant KV cache maintenance, rapidly saturating GPU capacity and degrading throughput. To address this challenge, we introduce ForkKV, a serving system for multi-LoRA
agent workflows centered around a novel
memory management paradigm in OS: fork with copy-on-write (CoW). By exploiting the structural properties of LoRA, ForkKV physically decouples the KV cache into a massive shared component (analogous to the parent process's
memory pages) and lightweight
agent-specific components (the child process's pages). To support this mechanism, we propose a DualRadixTree architecture that allows newly forked
agents to inherit the massive shared cache and apply CoW semantics for their lightweight unique cache. Furthermore, to guarantee efficient execution, we design ResidualAttention, a specialized kernel that reconstructs the disaggregated KV cache directly within on-chip SRAM. Comprehensive evaluations across diverse
language models and practical
datasets of different tasks demonstrate that ForkKV achieves up to 3.0x the throughput of state-of-the-art multi-LoRA serving systems with a negligible impact on generation quality.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
WebSP-Eval: Evaluating Web Agents on Website Security and Privacy Tasks
Guruprasad Viswanathan Ramesh, Asmit Nayak, Basieem Siddique et al. (+1 more)
Web
agents automate browser tasks, ranging from simple form completion to complex workflows like ordering groceries. While current
benchmarks evaluate general-purpose performance~(e.g., WebArena) or safety against malicious actions~(e.g., SafeArena), no existing framework assesses an
agent's ability to successfully execute user-facing website security and
privacy tasks, such as managing cookie preferences, configuring
privacy-sensitive account settings, or revoking inactive sessions. To address this gap, we introduce WebSP-Eval, an evaluation framework for measuring web
agent performance on website security and
privacy tasks. WebSP-Eval comprises 1) a manually crafted task
dataset of 200 task instances across 28 websites; 2) a robust agentic system supporting account and initial state management across runs using a custom Google Chrome extension; and 3) an automated evaluator. We evaluate a total of 8 web
agent instantiations using state-of-the-art
multimodal large
language models, conducting a fine-grained analysis across websites, task categories, and UI elements. Our evaluation reveals that current models suffer from limited autonomous exploration capabilities to reliably solve website security and
privacy tasks, and struggle with specific task categories and websites. Crucially, we identify stateful UI elements are a primary reason for
agent failure, with toggles causing more than 45% task failure across many models.
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All authors Guruprasad Viswanathan Ramesh, Asmit Nayak, Basieem Siddique, Kassem Fawaz
Machine Learning
Stochastic Gradient Descent in the Saddle-to-Saddle Regime of Deep Linear Networks
Guillaume Corlouer, Avi Semler, Alexander Strang et al. (+1 more)
Deep linear networks (DLNs) are used as an analytically tractable model of the training dynamics of deep neural networks. While gradient descent in DLNs is known to exhibit saddle-to-saddle dynamics, the impact of
stochastic gradient descent (SGD) noise on this regime remains poorly understood. We investigate the dynamics of SGD during training of DLNs in the saddle-to-saddle regime. We model the training dynamics as
stochastic Langevin dynamics with anisotropic, state-dependent noise. Under the assumption of aligned and balanced weights, we derive an exact decomposition of the dynamics into a system of one-dimensional per-mode
stochastic differential equations. This establishes that the maximal
diffusion along a mode precedes the corresponding feature being completely learned. We also derive the stationary distribution of SGD for each mode: in the absence of label noise, its marginal distribution along specific features coincides with the stationary distribution of gradient flow, while in the presence of label noise it approximates a Boltzmann distribution. Finally, we confirm experimentally that the theoretical results hold qualitatively even without aligned or balanced weights. These results establish that SGD noise encodes information about the progression of feature learning but does not fundamentally alter the saddle-to-saddle dynamics.
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All authors Guillaume Corlouer, Avi Semler, Alexander Strang, Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel
Machine Learning
Bi-Level Optimization for Single Domain Generalization
Marzi Heidari, Hanping Zhang, Hao Yan et al. (+1 more)
Generalizing from a single labeled source domain to unseen target domains, without access to any target data during training, remains a fundamental challenge in robust machine learning. We address this underexplored setting, known as Single Domain Generalization (SDG), by proposing BiSDG, a bi-level optimization framework that explicitly decouples task learning from domain modeling. BiSDG simulates distribution shifts through surrogate domains constructed via label-preserving transformations of the source data. To capture domain-specific context, we propose a domain
prompt encoder that generates lightweight modulation signals to produce augmenting features via feature-wise linear modulation. The learning process is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem: the inner objective optimizes task performance under fixed
prompts, while the outer objective maximizes generalization across the surrogate domains by updating the domain
prompt encoder. We further develop a practical gradient approximation scheme that enables efficient bi-level training without second-order derivatives. Extensive experiments on various SGD
benchmarks demonstrate that BiSDG consistently outperforms prior methods, setting new state-of-the-art performance in the SDG setting.
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All authors Marzi Heidari, Hanping Zhang, Hao Yan, Yuhong Guo
Machine Learning
BiScale-GTR: Fragment-Aware Graph Transformers for Multi-Scale Molecular Representation Learning
Yi Yang and Ovidiu Daescu
Fragment-level representations provide a natural way to capture recurring molecular substructures and reuse their learned representations across molecules. However, a shared fragment identity alone may not fully describe how a fragment is instantiated in a particular molecule, since the same fragment can exhibit different chemical behavior depending on its surrounding atomic environment. Effective fragment-based molecular learning therefore requires representations that are both reusable across molecules and sensitive to local atomic context. We introduce BiScale-GTR, a self-supervised molecular representation framework built around context-grounded shared fragment
tokens. BiScale-GTR constructs a reusable graph Byte Pair Encoding (graph-BPE) vocabulary using Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL)-based fragment identity, chemical validity filtering, and recursive out-of-vocabulary (OOV) decomposition. Each shared fragment
token is then grounded with atom-level GNN representations through atom-to-fragment pooling and gated fusion, allowing the same fragment identity to acquire context-dependent representations in different molecular environments. A structure-aware fragment
Transformer performs global
reasoning over these atom-grounded
tokens, capturing reusable substructure identity, local chemical context, and long-range molecular dependencies. Experiments on MoleculeNet, PharmaBench, and the Long Range Graph
Benchmark demonstrate strong performance across classification and regression tasks. Attribution analysis further shows that BiScale-GTR highlights chemically meaningful recurring motifs, providing interpretable links between molecular structure and predicted properties.
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Machine Learning
Drifting Fields are not Conservative
Leonard T. Franz, Sebastian Hoffmann, Tim Weiland et al. (+2 more)
Drifting models have recently gained
attention for generating high-quality samples in a single forward pass. During training, they learn a push-forward map by following a vector-valued field, the drift field. We ask whether this procedure is equivalent to optimizing a scalar loss and find that, in general, it is not: drift fields are not conservative and cannot be written as the gradient of any scalar potential. We identify the position-dependent normalization as the source of non-conservatism, with the Gaussian kernel as the unique radial exception. Guided by this, we introduce the sharp kernel $k^\#$ and a sharp-normalized drift field that is conservative for general radial kernels. The resulting vector field is the gradient of a scalar potential that can be optimized directly using
stochastic gradient descent. Moreover, the field has the form of a score difference of kernel density estimates, and gives exact
equilibrium identifiability. Thus, sharp normalization closes the gap to related literature, such as Wasserstein gradient-flows and denoising score matching, also for non-Gaussian kernels. Empirically, sharp normalization preserves the performance of the original drifting objective, suggesting that the non-conservative flexibility is not required for high-quality generation.
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All authors Leonard T. Franz, Sebastian Hoffmann, Tim Weiland, Bernhard Schölkopf, Georg Martius
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Telescope: Learnable Hyperbolic Foveation for Ultra-Long-Range Object Detection
Parker Ewen, Dmitriy Rivkin, Mario Bijelic et al. (+1 more)
Autonomous highway driving, especially for long-haul heavy trucks, requires detecting objects at long ranges beyond 500 meters to satisfy braking distance requirements at high speeds. At long distances, vehicles and other critical objects occupy only a few pixels in high-resolution images, causing state-of-the-art object detectors to fail. This challenge is compounded by the limited effective range of commercially available
LiDAR sensors, which fall short of ultra-long range thresholds because of quadratic loss of resolution with distance, making image-based detection the most practically scalable solution given commercially available sensor constraints. We introduce
Telescope, a two-stage detection model designed for ultra-long range autonomous driving. Alongside a powerful detection backbone, this model contains a novel re-sampling layer and image transformation to address the fundamental challenges of detecting small, distant objects.
Telescope achieves $76\%$ relative improvement in mAP in ultra-long range detection compared to state-of-the-art methods (improving from an absolute mAP of 0.185 to 0.326 at distances beyond 250 meters), requires minimal computational overhead, and maintains strong performance across all detection ranges.
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All authors Parker Ewen, Dmitriy Rivkin, Mario Bijelic, Felix Heide
Machine Learning
Limits of Difficulty Scaling: Hard Samples Yield Diminishing Returns in GRPO-Tuned SLMs
Suraj Yadav, Siddharth Yadav and Parth Goyal
Recent
alignment work on Large
Language Models (LLMs) suggests preference optimization can improve
reasoning by shifting probability mass toward better solutions. We test this claim in a resource-constrained setting by applying GRPO with LoRA to SLMs (up to 3B) for math
reasoning on GSM8K and MATH
datasets with difficulty-stratified analyses. As problem difficulty increases, accuracy plateaus, revealing a capacity boundary: GRPO primarily reshapes output preferences without reliably improving hardest-tier solving. Consistent with this, training GRPO only on lower-difficulty problems matches full-
dataset accuracy across difficulty tiers while using only ~45% training steps, indicating diminishing returns from harder samples in this regime. We also find a cross-
dataset generalization effect: GSM8K-trained GRPO achieves higher accuracy on the numeric subset of MATH than MATH-trained GRPO, exceeding it by ~5% at 1.5B and by ~3% at 3B. We show that the best achievable gains depend strongly on the base model's prior
reasoning competence and the
dataset's difficulty profile.
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