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Computer Science Machine Learning

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Wednesday 7 October

Machine Learning

MemoWM: How World Models Change What Agents Need to Remember

Bingfan Zeng, Zhisheng Chen, Chenbo Sang et al. (+6 more)

Long-term agents face growing storage demands as they accumulate experience. World models capture reusable regularities that can reduce the information stored for each experience. We formulate the problem of memory allocation conditioned on a world model and introduce MemoWM, a framework that uses shared predictions to compress retained information and reconstruct omitted content. Its task-aware allocation rule balances the expected impact of reconstruction errors against storage cost, retaining information with downstream value beyond the predictive prior. Across five long-term agent-memory benchmarks, MemoWM achieves 42.42% average answer accuracy, exceeding the strongest baseline by 2.62 percentage points, while reducing average experience-specific storage by 53.9% relative to MIRIX, the most storage-efficient baseline. Further analysis shows that stronger world models reduce per-experience storage at comparable task quality. Accounting for model parameters reveals a trade-off between shared model capacity and recurring storage costs, with the capacity that minimizes total storage increasing as more interactions are retained. Our code is available at https://github.com/Feld-maxiu/MemoWM.
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All authors Bingfan Zeng, Zhisheng Chen, Chenbo Sang, Zhengwei Xie, Jinpeng Wang, Xiangchen Guan, Rui Qian, Zheng Lu, Jingwei Song

Machine Learning

NEMORA: Neural Equivariant Multipole Operators for Long-Range Atomistic Learning

Jay L. Kaplan, Samuel Varner, Rebecca Willett et al. (+1 more)

Equivariant graph neural networks have emerged as foundational architectures for machine-learned interatomic potentials, approaching quantum-chemical accuracy at a fraction of the computational cost. These models describe local atomic environments accurately, but finite spatial cutoffs truncate long-range information flow, and stacking message-passing layers can lead to over-smoothing and over-squashing. Existing long-range extensions either prescribe a fixed analytical propagation kernel, restrict long-range communication to scalars or degree-preserving channels, are only approximately equivariant, or incur super-linear computational cost. Combining learnable long-range equivariant transport with multiscale many-body expressivity and efficient scaling for larger systems remains a central challenge. We introduce Neural Equivariant Multipole Operators (NEMORA), a neural equivariant extension of the Fast Multipole Method (FMM) for learning long-range tensorial representations. NEMORA generalizes the FMM's analytical multipole expansion and translation operators to learned equivariant counterparts on an adaptive spatial hierarchy. Its operators couple angular degrees and form many-body interactions across length scales, retaining the FMM's hierarchical organization and analytical radial factors as physical inductive biases while learning data-dependent long-range couplings. NEMORA evaluates in linear time and memory complexity, allowing it to treat larger systems than other long-range methods reaching hundreds of thousands of atoms, and it augments both symmetry-constrained and unconstrained short-range backbones. On non-local benchmarks, it reduces force and energy errors relative to the short-range backbones by over an order of magnitude and up to three orders of magnitude, respectively, which is better than or competitive with existing long-range extensions in accuracy.
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All authors Jay L. Kaplan, Samuel Varner, Rebecca Willett, Juan J. de Pablo

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CE

Strategic Investment Decision Making for Value Creation in Energy Transition: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Yasaman Cheraghi, Reidar B. Bratvold, Aojie Hong et al. (+2 more)

The global challenge of climate change has driven significant steps to reduce CO2 emissions, guided by international agreements like the Paris Agreement of 2015. Acting too slowly could result in future losses and reputational damage, while moving too quickly could jeopardize shareholder value due to the marginal profitability or potential losses due to technology immaturity of many renewable projects. To navigate this complex transition, energy companies must adopt Sequential Decision Making (SDM) strategies to maximize value creation from decision flexibility under uncertainties. To support this, we developed a custom simulation environment to model the dynamic energy landscape up to 2050. Building on this, we designed a multi-criteria SDM framework that explores various decision strategies related to different portfolios for allocating funds across three sectors: oil & gas, renewables, and CO2 reduction. It aims to maximize value during the transition while accounting for uncertainties in productions, energy prices, and costs. This framework has three objectives: maximizing profit, minimizing CO2 social costs, and enhancing competitive advantage in the renewable energy sector. This research evaluates the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) to identify optimal investment policies within the defined SDM framework. The agent's sequential decisions shape a virtual dynamic environment by influencing key variables such as oil and gas production, renewable energy output, CO2 emissions, and revenues. Through repeated interaction, the RL algorithm explores the state space and learns an optimal policy under uncertainty. We benchmark the RL strategy against a set of manually defined baseline policies and find it consistently outperforms them in adaptability and long-term value creation.
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All authors Yasaman Cheraghi, Reidar B. Bratvold, Aojie Hong, Ressi B. Muhammad, Sergey Alyaev

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

CPU-Auth: Device Fingerprinting for Authentication via DVFS Side-Channel

Ryan Swift

Lack of effective authentication has resulted in numerous security and privacy breaches, including unauthorized access to protected information, identity theft, and fraud. One approach to mitigating such attacks is Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA), in which users must provide multiple pieces of information for authentication. Some secondary authentication factors include SMS text verification codes, biometrics, and tokens. Each contains at least one notable flaw: SMS is notoriously insecure; biometrics rely upon access to sensitive personal data; and tokens require dependence on third-party providers (e.g. OAuth providers). This work explores CPU-Auth, a novel authentication mechanism based on unique variations in the physical characteristics of the CPU of a computing device. By measuring the behavior of the Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling (DVFS) governor remotely from within a browser, unique properties of the CPU can be leveraged to establish a hardware-based device fingerprint for use in CPU-Auth. The performance of CPU-Auth is evaluated on over 50,000 data traces using distance-based and deep learning methods. CPU-Auth is part of a larger research project, and the results provided in this report reflect only the contributions made to the project by members of this group.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

What can linear attention learn from nonlinear teachers in-context?

Mary Letey, Arman Rysmakhanov, Yue M. Lu et al. (+2 more)

Linear attention is a tractable model for understanding the mechanisms governing in-context learning in transformers. For linear regression tasks, recent asymptotic analyses have characterised its learning and generalisation behaviour. We extend this theory to nonlinear single-index targets, $y=f(x^\top w)+\varepsilon $. Our main result establishes a nonlinearity-noise equivalence: linear attention extracts only the linear Hermite component of $f$, while the remaining nonlinear structure contributes to the generalisation error as effective noise. This reduction allows results from the corresponding linear theory to be transferred to nonlinear tasks. We illustrate its implications for finite pretraining data and for the transition from task memorisation to task generalisation as task diversity increases. These results identify a limitation of the reduced linear-attention model and provide a tractable starting point for studying nonlinear in-context learning.
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All authors Mary Letey, Arman Rysmakhanov, Yue M. Lu, Cengiz Pehlevan, Jacob Zavatone-Veth

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Clarify, Then Focus: Statement Normalization for Conversation Analytics at Scale

Mikhail L. Arbuzov, Karan Dave, Evgeniya Dontsova et al. (+5 more)

Enterprise conversation analytics asks many questions of millions of interactions. Each question can require reconstructing what people mean and identifying which information matters, repeating costly interpretive work across the same transcripts. We propose a simple principle: clarify the text, then focus the reader. Statement normalization transforms dialogue into short, speaker-attributed statements with source references and semantic tags. The statements make meaning more explicit; the tags support selecting evidence for a particular question. Downstream models can use the full representation or a relevant subset, depending on what helps them make the decision. In an offer-suppression task on customer-service calls, normalization improves a supervised classifier without selection, while weaker prompted readers benefit from both normalization and selection. A small model can learn the normalization contract, while lightweight encoders handle tagging and downstream decisions. Sharing this preparation across questions supports an inference pipeline built entirely from small models, making analytics over millions of conversations substantially less expensive.
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All authors Mikhail L. Arbuzov, Karan Dave, Evgeniya Dontsova, Yaodong Hu, Vincent Lao, Navita Jain, Sisong Bei, Dmitry Dimov

Machine Learning

Conversational Task Disambiguation over Tabular Data: Leakage-Aware Formulation, Benchmark Suite, and Training

Nafiseh Ghoroghchian, Luis Scoccola, Tina Sedaghat et al. (+4 more)

Conversational task disambiguation over tabular data uses dialogue to resolve missing information about a user's intended task before producing a solution over tables or databases. Existing evaluation and training lack a leakage-aware foundation. Task success mixes the agent's disambiguation and solution-generation capabilities and can also reflect oracle leakage, that is, information that a user simulator reveals beyond what a real user would. Existing datasets also lack a shared representation of ambiguities and access boundaries. We introduce the notion of an ambiguous verifiable task, which formalizes ambiguities and resolutions, decomposing the agent into an asking policy and a solution policy, and the environment into an oracle and verifier. This framework provides baselines and metrics for evaluating task disambiguation separately from solution generation, formal definitions of oracle leakage, judge-free leakage diagnostics, and a training objective for the asking policy. We instantiate the framework in text-to-SQL with AmbiTab, a benchmark suite that unifies six ambiguous datasets under a common representation specifying what the agent, oracle, and verifier may access. We evaluate clarification strategies and oracle leakage, and train an asking policy with reinforcement learning. The trained asker improves our disambiguation metrics on all six datasets and task success on five, and our leakage diagnostics measure how training affects oracle leakage.
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All authors Nafiseh Ghoroghchian, Luis Scoccola, Tina Sedaghat, Omid Vaheb, Hannah Chen, Dino D'Agostino, Keyvan Golestan

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-fin.CP

Deep Learning vs. Statistical Models for Multi-Horizon Price Forecasting of Second-Hand Electronics: A Systematic Benchmark

Mateusz Buczyński, Michał Woźniak, Konrad Kaczyński et al. (+2 more)

Forecasting resale prices of used electronics is critical for subscription-based platforms where pricing errors translate directly into risk. Unlike structured financial markets, second-hand electronics exhibit high volatility, sparse listing histories, and non-normal price dynamics - yet no systematic time-series benchmark exists for this domain. This paper presents the first multi-horizon benchmark of statistical and deep learning forecasting models for used electronics price prediction. We use a large-scale dataset of daily price listings from Polish online marketplaces (January 2022 to March 2025, 100+ smartphone and laptop models) and evaluate eleven models across six horizons from 1 to 365 days, covering classical methods (ARIMA, ETS, Theta), recurrent and convolutional networks (LSTM, TCN), and modern deep architectures (N-BEATS, N-HiTS, TFT, PatchTST, Informer). Three complementary evaluation protocols assess trajectory fitness, one-shot endpoint accuracy, and cross-horizon transfer. N-BEATS achieves the lowest MAPE beyond 30 days, reaching 8.51% at 365 days versus 14.94% for the best statistical baseline - a 43% reduction. At short horizons (1-7 days), all models converge near 0.72% MAPE and the naive baseline remains competitive. A single N-BEATS model trained at 365 days generalizes to all shorter horizons, eliminating the need for horizon-specific models. N-BEATS and N-HiTS also demonstrate superior hyperparameter stability.
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All authors Mateusz Buczyński, Michał Woźniak, Konrad Kaczyński, Anna Wróblewska, Sebastian Kuk

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph

On linearity or non-linearity in machine learning for quantum chaotic dynamics

Francesco Perciavalle, Agostino Gallo, Francesco Plastina et al. (+3 more)

Accurately simulating chaotic quantum many-body dynamics remains a major computational challenge for classical methods, due to the rapid buildup and spatial spreading of entanglement during the evolution. This raises the question of whether machine learning can provide an effective alternative for predicting quantum dynamics. We address this question by formulating quantum dynamics as a time-series forecasting problem, using a few-qubit PXP chain, realizable with Rydberg-atom arrays, as a benchmark. By varying the initial state, the system spans dynamical regimes ranging from ergodic behavior to quantum many-body scarring, providing a controlled setting for testing forecasting models across qualitatively different dynamics. We compare two contrasting architectures: an expressive nonlinear Transformer and DLinear, a simple linear forecasting model. The Transformer accurately predicts dynamics in the more ergodic regime, but its performance progressively deteriorates as the initial state approaches the scarred limit. In contrast, DLinear remains accurate across the entire family of initial states, with its main deviations consisting of small high-frequency oscillations that have little effect on the overall prediction error. Remarkably, these results show that observables generated by complex quantum many-body dynamics can be forecast with high accuracy through a simple linear mapping from past to future observations. This reveals that the complexity of the underlying quantum evolution need not translate into an equally complex forecasting problem.
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All authors Francesco Perciavalle, Agostino Gallo, Francesco Plastina, Gianluigi Greco, Nicola Lo Gullo, Carlo Adornetto

Machine Learning

Learning infinite context windows in recurrent architectures via spatial neural computing

Aleix Salvador-Pomarol, Arthur N. Montanari, Earl K. Miller et al. (+2 more)

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) offer linear-time scaling with sequence length while requiring only constant memory, yet they struggle to capture long-range dependencies due to vanishing gradients and limited receptive fields. To address these limitations, we introduce a second-order recurrent model in which the standard neuron-to-neuron communication is replaced by a spatially evolving field governed by (discretized) partial differential equations. Drawing inspiration from the role of cortical waves in brain computation, this mechanism allows structured spatiotemporal patterns to serve as an implicit, high-capacity memory. We show that the resulting model is equivalent to a structured infinite-order RNN in which the current state depends explicitly on its entire history of past states, yielding an effectively unbounded receptive field with a fixed number of parameters. We further derive constructive conditions to ensure marginal stability, constraining the gradient spectrum on the unit circle and thereby eliminating vanishing and exploding gradients. Empirically, the proposed architecture outperforms other recurrent models on long-horizon benchmarks while using substantially fewer parameters, demonstrating that spatial dynamics can effectively bridge the gap between efficient inference and long-term memory.
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All authors Aleix Salvador-Pomarol, Arthur N. Montanari, Earl K. Miller, Adilson E. Motter, Jorge Cortés

Machine Learning

Explaining the Saliency Map Sparsity of Adversarially-Trained Neural Networks

Yannick Lunk, Atell Yehor Krasnopolsky, Damien Garreau et al. (+1 more)

Understanding why deep neural networks make a given prediction is of great importance for their safe deployment. In computer vision, saliency maps, which highlight the image region most influential for a prediction, remain a widely-used form of explanation. An empirical observation is the apparent sparsity of gradient saliency maps of adversarially-trained neural networks. In this paper, we propose a theoretical explanation of this phenomenon for two-layer ReLU networks. We build on the established equivalence of adversarial training to the minimization of the empirical risk with weight-decay penalization and an added adversarial total variation term – valid for certain loss functions. As the number of data points and neurons grows and the regularization parameters are sent to zero at appropriate rates, we prove that minimizers converge to a Bayes classifier with minimal gradient and Barron norm. Sparsity appears since for adversarial training with $\ell_\infty$-attacks the gradient norm is anisotropic and favors axis-aligned / sparse gradients. We illustrate our theoretical findings experimentally by evaluating the gradient $\ell_1$-norm and thresholded sparsity of naturally versus adversarially trained models.
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All authors Yannick Lunk, Atell Yehor Krasnopolsky, Damien Garreau, Leon Bungert

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD

BEANS-Next and ROOTS: Broadening Audio-Language Capabilities for Bioacoustics

Christos Plachouras, David Robinson, Marius Miron et al. (+17 more)

Bioacoustics and ethology encompass a wide range of audio understanding tasks, many of which stand to benefit from recent advances in large audio-language models. However, progress in the field has so far been assessed on a narrow set of tasks, primarily centered on label-centric biological category recognition, such as species and call-type classification. In this work, we introduce BEANS-Next, a benchmark grounded in a taxonomy of bioacoustics tasks spanning acoustic perception, biological category recognition, scene understanding, and in-context learning. Using BEANS-Next, we show that existing models exhibit limited performance beyond the task families emphasized by existing evaluations, constraining their usefulness for broader bioacoustic applications. To support progress on this broader task space, we also introduce ROOTS, a large-scale training resource built from expanded curated real-world data and previously underused behavioral and acoustic metadata, supplemented by audio-derived information and scalable synthetic generation where labeling is insufficient. We demonstrate that training on this dataset yields substantial progress across all task groups of BEANS-Next, moving audio-language models closer to their potential as general-purpose assistants for bioacoustics and ethology. To accelerate progress in the field, we open-source our benchmark, dataset, and data pipelines.
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All authors Christos Plachouras, David Robinson, Marius Miron, Gagan Narula, Paul Laisné, Anthony L. T. Fine, Benno Weck, Ellen Gilsenan-McMahon, Diane Kim, Laura Hay Mack, Maddie Cusimano, Sara Keen, Lukas Rauch, Benjamin Hoffman, Emmanuel Chemla, Emmanouil Benetos, Johan Pauwels, Milad Alizadeh, Matthieu Geist, Olivier Pietquin

Machine Learning

Teaching PPG How not Who: Fixed-Effects Distillation from ECG

Zhongli Wu, Zhuangzhi Gao, Yuankai Wang et al. (+3 more)

ECG is widely used to teach PPG-only models, yet what it teaches is unexamined. Wearables are valued for tracking how a person's cardiovascular state changes, but ECG-to-PPG distillation mostly learns who the person is. A per-recording mean, the trait, holds 40-59% of a frozen ECG teacher's target, and pooled students memorise it without carrying it to new recordings. The raw alignment cosine misses this, since a constant predictor scores 0.793. Across 34 runs, the more identity a student memorises, the less state it learns. Fixed-effects distillation subtracts each recording's mean from prediction and target, so the trait cancels exactly, while a pooled anchor keeps it. State agreement more than doubles, within-person labels improve while age and sex do not, and the gain holds on two backbones and two further databases. Conditioning on the recording turns distillation toward the within-person changes that wearables monitor.
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All authors Zhongli Wu, Zhuangzhi Gao, Yuankai Wang, Gregory Y.H. Lip, Bilal H. Kirmani, Yalin Zheng

Machine Learning

Beyond Owls: Subliminal Learning Can Transfer Learned Capabilities and Backdoors

Jan Dubiński, Anna Sztyber-Betley, Jan Betley et al. (+1 more)

In subliminal learning (SL), a teacher model passes on a trait to a student model by distillation on data semantically unrelated to the trait. So far, SL has been demonstrated for only a limited range of traits, including preferences for animals (e.g., owls) and malicious personas. These traits can also be elicited with simple prompts or with steering. Can SL transfer a wider range of traits, including more complex ones? If so, distillation might transfer subtle forms of misalignment (e.g., reward-seeking, scheming, and secret loyalties) without detection. To this end, we test whether SL can transfer a novel capability: predicting the outputs of a randomly initialized MLP. After distilling on unrelated text, the student achieves substantial performance on the task, while falling short of the teacher. We find that a directly optimized steering vector matches SL in distribution but generalizes worse out of distribution. Next, we test whether SL can transfer backdoors. We finetune the teacher to answer in French when the prompt contains a female name, then distill on number sequences containing neither names nor French. The student partially acquires the backdoor, responding in French on 23.5% of prompts with female names versus 0.0% with male names. Finally, we test whether SL can transfer a propensity to hack in an agentic chess environment. We finetune the student on number sequences from a steered hacker teacher. The student hacks in 58.3% of episodes, compared with 10.9% for the unfinetuned model. Thus, we show SL can transfer capabilities, backdoors, and hacking propensities. The amount of transfer is sensitive to the setup. In several experiments, it is made stronger by using logit distillation or by restricting LoRA to the attention layers.
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All authors Jan Dubiński, Anna Sztyber-Betley, Jan Betley, Owain Evans

Machine Learning

Nullify: Null-Space Activation Steering for Training-Free LLM Unlearning

Wei Zhai, Xiang Liu, Qiang Huang et al. (+6 more)

Large Language Models (LLMs) inevitably internalize substantial amounts of sensitive or private information during pre-training, while LLM unlearning aims to selectively erase specific knowledge to prevent privacy leakage with minimal loss of model utility. However, existing methods struggle to balance forget quality with utility, and typically incur substantial computational costs due to parameter fine-tuning. To address this, we propose Nullify, a training-free, non-destructive activation steering method for LLM unlearning. Nullify employs steering vectors during inference to redirect privacy-related activations away from their memorized answers, while satisfying a null-space constraint that leaves retained-query activations essentially unaffected to maintain utility. Evaluations on TOFU and MUSE show that Nullify matches or surpasses established baselines in forget quality while achieving near-lossless preservation of model utility. By avoiding weight updates entirely, Nullify serves as an efficient, plug-and-play inference-time intervention framework.
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All authors Wei Zhai, Xiang Liu, Qiang Huang, Rui Qian, Lemao Liu, Ziwei Li, Ziqi Wang, Zhitao Huang, Dejing Dou

Machine Learning

PXtal: Learning to Align Powder X-Ray Diffraction and Crystal Structures under Information Asymmetry across Modalities

Zhuoran Yang, Christopher M. Collins, Bei Peng et al. (+3 more)

Scientific multimodal learning commonly assumes that paired views are comparably informative. Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) makes this mismatch explicit: compressing a three-dimensional crystal structure into a one-dimensional diffraction pattern loses information and makes the pattern harder to connect to the crystal structure that produced it. We introduce PXtal, a framework for learning aligned PXRD and crystal representations under this physically imposed information asymmetry. PXtal uses Unbalanced Optimal Transport (UOT) to adapt the cross-modal coupling and coupling-level generalized Kullback-Leibler (GKL) divergence to supervise the full transport plan. Across six test sets, including four zero-shot transfer sets, PXtal consistently outperforms the baseline models in PXRD-to-crystal candidate retrieval, with the largest gains when PXRD patterns have close but crystallographically distinct nonpaired neighbors, meaning similar input patterns associated with different crystals. The resulting crystal and PXRD encoders transfer more effectively to downstream materials and crystallographic tasks. These results identify information asymmetry as a general design problem in scientific multimodal learning: alignment objectives should reflect what each modality preserves.
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All authors Zhuoran Yang, Christopher M. Collins, Bei Peng, Luke M. Daniels, Matthew J. Rosseinsky, Vladimir V. Gusev

Machine Learning

Beyond the Ergodic Wall: A Discrete Geometric Physics Sandbox for Analysing AI Scaling Limits and Complexity Collapse

Simon Richard Daniel

This paper exposes the ergodic ceiling and thermodynamic inefficiency of current deep learning, which converges to a statistical average of historic human knowledge. True semantic novelty requires a path-dependent, spatiotemporally bounded observer (a Data LifeCone) to inject non-ergodic insight, achieving KL divergence and avoiding manifold lock-in. AI Safety must recognise that a mature Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) would regard human-AI symbiosis as a thermodynamic necessity to avoid model collapse. We therefore propose hard physical containment via a digital physics sandbox powered by a Holographic E8 Projection Engine to verify models against real-world constraints. Spacetime is modeled as an information substrate of nested face-centered cubic (FCC) lattices of oscillating Planck-scale spheres maximizing local information and entropy density. Cut-and-project methods from the E8 root lattice produce a quasi-crystalline geometry where tetrahedral voids support SU chiral structure and elastic-shear eigenvalues generate candidate mass spectra. Rest mass is treated as discrete, integer microstate counts on local holographic boundaries (Bekenstein bound), replacing floating-point approximations with strict integer arithmetic to provide an information-theoretic definition of matter. Stable particles emerge as recurring lattice dislocations, and continuum recovery proceeds via variational renormalisation-group flows and Fourier Neural Operators that learn continuous spectral operators to recover the Schrödinger equation as an emergent statistical description. Crucially, these top-down topological constraints offer a mechanism for "NP-to-P" complexity collapse: by restricting an algorithm's proposal space to physically conserved causal trajectories, the sandbox prunes the combinatorial tree to deterministic, polynomial-time paths.
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Machine Learning

Leakage-Controlled Multimodal Learning for Diagnosis and Progression Prediction in Alzheimer's Disease Research

Akeem Temitope Otapo, Ghazaleh Khodabandelou, Zuheng Ming et al. (+1 more)

Alzheimer's disease prediction involves irregular visits, heterogeneous measurements and incomplete modalities. This study presents a multimodal multitask framework combining an adapted SFCN MRI encoder, four causal clinical Transformers, shared fusion and task-specific ODE-GRU dynamics. Fine-tuning and LoRA adapt the final two MRI blocks. Task-DRO balances task losses, while Group-CVaR targets cohort and comorbidity strata. Branch-specific input controls, subject-grouped partitions and empirical causality checks support longitudinal evaluation. Across 2,649 subjects and 17,317 visits from ADNI, OASIS-2 and MIRIAD, internal validation yields diagnosis, stage-1 progression and first-stage-1-visit progression AUROCs of 0.935 +/- 0.002, 0.884 +/- 0.003 and 0.870 +/- 0.005, respectively (mean +/- SD across three seeds). Corresponding hybrid AUROCs are 0.951, 0.909 and 0.896. Next-visit MMSE mean absolute error (MAE) is 1.61 points; worst-stratum diagnosis AUROC is 0.827 +/- 0.008. Sampled ADNI explanations identify task-specific input dependence. OASIS-3 external validation yields network and hybrid diagnosis AUROCs of 0.763 and 0.767, hybrid next-visit progression AUROC of 0.764, diagnosis calibration error decreasing from 0.197 to 0.052, and next-visit MMSE MAE of 0.86. Seed-42 paired ablations of six components yield pooled diagnosis and progression AUROC differences between -0.004 and +0.004; removing clinical encoder inputs lowers diagnosis AUROC by 0.272. The framework integrates longitudinal prediction, missing-modality handling, auxiliary comorbidity modelling and subgroup evaluation within a common pipeline.
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All authors Akeem Temitope Otapo, Ghazaleh Khodabandelou, Zuheng Ming, Alice Othmani

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

From Log-Odds to Shapley Values: An Explanatory Geometry for the Weighted Naive Bayes Classifier

Vincent Lemaire and Fabrice Clérot

This paper studies the construction of an explanatory space for a weighted naive Bayes classifier from the supervised representation induced by the model. We start from the classical supervised distance based on conditional log-likelihoods and introduce a discriminative reformulation based on log-odds, which is more directly related to the classification decision. We then show that this representation induces a distance that exactly coincides with the $\ell_1$ distance between vectors of analytical Shapley values, thereby providing a formal explanatory interpretation of the geometry induced by the model. Finally, we empirically compare several supervised distances derived from these representations using a $k$-nearest neighbors classifier. This work highlights a close link between supervised distance, local explanation, and predictive behavior, from a primarily methodological perspective.
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Machine Learning

Coverage-Aware Reasoning with Medical Tokens for Diagnosis Prediction

Kaisong Zhang, Haotian Fang, Junmeng Zhou et al. (+3 more)

Large language models (LLMs) offer promising potential for next-visit diagnosis prediction, owing to their ability to integrate longitudinal clinical evidence and reason over it in natural language. However, reinforcement learning for LLM reasoning commonly rewards each trajectory according to the correctness of its final answer. In next-visit diagnosis prediction, multiple diagnoses can be simultaneously valid, but independently rewarding one diagnosis per trajectory does not distinguish repeated hits from coverage of different diagnoses. The policy can therefore concentrate on a few correct diagnoses, leaving others uncovered. Meanwhile, LLM tokenizers can split ICD codes into several generic tokens with limited clinical meaning, requiring multiple decoding steps to predict each diagnosis and hindering reasoning over a large disease vocabulary. To address both challenges, we propose CARing, a framework that represents diagnoses with compositional Semantic IDs (SIDs) and optimizes reasoning trajectories for multi-label coverage. Concretely, we first encode ontology-enriched disease semantics into compact SIDs through residual quantization, and ground the resulting SID tokens in natural language and longitudinal EHR contexts through multi-task alignment and reasoning-enriched training to unlock transferable LLM reasoning. CARing further improves unordered multi-label prediction through a coverage reward for reinforcement learning and multi-positive supervision. At inference time, the model supports both efficient direct constrained decoding and multi-chain reasoning with rank fusion. On MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, CARing exceeds all EHR-trained baselines in weighted F1 and attains the highest top-k recall at every reported cutoff, including R@30 of 46.04% and 46.52% in reasoning mode. Our codes and logs are available at https://github.com/zmlxzyh/CARing-Codes-Logs.
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All authors Kaisong Zhang, Haotian Fang, Junmeng Zhou, Hang Lv, Yulan Pan, Yanchao Tan

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.ST

How Many Directions Must a Truncated Diffusion Sampler Retain? Matching Bounds Under Power-Law Spectra

Radmehr Karimian, Ali Mohades and Johannes Lederer

Diffusion samplers can reduce computation by generating selected spectral coordinates and filling the remaining directions with noise. How many directions must they retain? We study this question for data with power-law covariance spectra. For Gaussian data compared to a smoothed target, we prove matching bounds on the required number of retained directions, provided that the ambient dimension is sufficiently large. The truncation error depends on the combined Wiener gains of the omitted directions, regardless of the accuracy of the sampler on the retained coordinates. Keeping only directions whose signal exceeds the output noise level can therefore leave a non-vanishing error: many individually weak directions remain significant in aggregate. Combining this characterization with a diffusion convergence bound yields sufficient sampling-step complexity under exact scores. The upper bounds also extend to estimated principal components and, componentwise, to Gaussian mixtures. The practical prescription is to select the retained subspace using an aggregate spectral-tail error budget, then to choose the diffusion noise level accordingly.
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Machine Learning

Visible Reasoning Is Not a Universal Optimizer: Persona- and Thinking-Dependent Effects in Analytics Code Generation

Bhawani Shankar Leelar, Pawan Chorasiya, Davin Hill et al. (+2 more)

Visible Chain-of-Thought (CoT) is often treated as a broadly useful reasoning instruction, yet analytics code generation combines natural-language ambiguity, schema grounding, target-language constraints, and model-specific inference behavior. Because the same analytics request can be expressed in two distinct target languages-SQL and Python (pandas)-this setting provides a natural test of a common but under-examined assumption: that visible reasoning is more effective when its representation matches the requested target, as in "think in SQL" or "think in Python." Together with generic instructions such as "think step-by-step," such recommendations remain insufficiently evaluated under controlled, execution-based comparisons. We study a query matched SQL-pandas benchmark that crosses persona phrasing, target language, visible-CoT format, control prefixes, direct generation, and internal-reasoning configurations. The results do not support either a universal accuracy advantage from visible CoT or a consistent benefit from matching the reasoning representation to the target language. Instead, the effects depend on the persona, target, model configuration, and internal-reasoning setting. The control ablations further distinguish effects of reasoning content from those of prompt format. These findings indicate that reasoning strategies should be selected jointly for the model, persona, target, and internal-reasoning configuration rather than adopted as universal defaults. More broadly, the study provides a controlled framework for identifying when visible reasoning improves executable generation, when it primarily perturbs model behavior, and when the internal-reasoning configuration is the more consequential factor.
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All authors Bhawani Shankar Leelar, Pawan Chorasiya, Davin Hill, Robert E. Tillman, Tamer Soliman

Machine Learning

D-SLR: The Disjoint Row-Sparse plus Low-Rank Decomposition

Vincent Szolnoky

Compressing a matrix for reconstruction still defaults to the truncated SVD, approximating the data with a single low-rank structure. It is common to reduce the residual further by adding an overlapping row-sparse component, but methods that solve this joint problem often require iterative solvers and tuning of regularization parameters. We propose the Disjoint Row-Sparse plus Low-Rank (D-SLR) decomposition, a closed-form drop-in for the truncated SVD that improves or exactly matches it. D-SLR restricts rows to either being stored verbatim or approximated by the low-rank fit, never both. Under squared error this restriction costs nothing: the joint optimum is attainable disjointly with fewer parameters at every non-trivial rank and stored row count (shape). With zero stored rows D-SLR reduces to the truncated SVD, so it never does worse at equal cost. The algorithm scores the entire error-versus-parameters tradeoff, and the solution is chosen afterwards by a supplied error target or parameter count, or by a selection rule. The grid and solution together cost three SVDs, with no tuning or regularization. We derive an assumption-free, a-posteriori lower bound on the error at every shape, giving each solution a computable certificate on the potential gain of any other choice of rank and stored rows. Experiments on synthetic and real data (LLM embedding tables, network traffic, hyperspectral images) confirm the gains and quantify the certificate.
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Machine Learning

Phase-HDC: Replacing Optimizer History with Gradient Thresholds in Discrete Phase Learning

Ahmed Nebli

Training a compact model often needs far more memory than storing it, because the optimizer keeps its own records of past gradients. For a hyperdimensional classifier whose learned parameters are low-bit angles, which we call a phase memory, these records take several times more memory than the model itself. We ask whether such a model can be trained while storing nothing but the model. The proposed method, Phase-HDC, turns each stored angle by at most one step per update, against the sign of its current gradient, and only when that gradient is large enough. We show that this simple rule is the exact solution of a first-order loss model in which every changed parameter pays a fixed cost. When everything except the update rule is held fixed, Phase-HDC matches the accuracy of Adam with 6-bit moments while storing three times less. Across eleven image, tabular, and text datasets, it stores 16–23$\times$ less than standard float32 Adam and 4–6$\times$ less than 8-bit Adam. The price is an average loss of about five accuracy points against float32 Adam, while Phase-HDC is more accurate than 8-bit Adam on six of the eleven datasets, including byte-level text prediction, where 8-bit Adam collapses. Instrumented training runs explain these outcomes. Once parameters must sit on a discrete grid, Adam's moments mainly decide whether a parameter moves at all, a decision that a threshold on the current gradient can make without memory, and coarse quantization of the moments breaks this decision for inputs that the data rarely contain. The storage savings are logical state rather than measured hardware memory.
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Machine Learning

Sample-Efficiency of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

Kevin Riehl, Shaimaa K. El-Baklish, Fan Wu et al. (+1 more)

Deep reinforcement learning has achieved substantial performance gains over classical control approaches. Yet, a central challenge to learning in real-world applications is acquiring costly samples. Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks are a recently proposed architecture that can learn physical relationships in control problems effectively, with significantly higher parameter efficiency and interpretability when compared to Multi-Layer-Perceptron architectures. In this work, we systematically study sample-efficiency using computational experiments, covering the Feynman dataset and the Gymnasium RL benchmark. The results show that similar performance can be achieved with 40% fewer samples using the Kolmogorov-Arnold architecture, and that relative performance improvements up to 50% occur during the training process. The observed gains are robust to varying levels of noise in rewards. These results highlight the potential of the Kolmogorov-Arnold architectures for more sample-efficient reinforcement learning. Code: https://github.com/DerKevinRiehl/neurips26_kan_training
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All authors Kevin Riehl, Shaimaa K. El-Baklish, Fan Wu, Anastasios Kouvelas

Machine Learning

Exact SO(3)-Equivariant Isotropic Kernels for Rotation-Robust Neural Dynamics

Ridham Patel

Neural surrogates for vector-valued partial differential equations can fit training data yet change their predictions when the same physical state is expressed in a rotated coordinate frame. We study this failure on three-dimensional Navier–Stokes dynamics observed at irregularly placed points. We introduce the Invariant-Conditioned Isotropic Kernel Neural Operator (IKNO), a compact graph model that builds local interactions from scalar quantities unchanged by rotation and vector directions that rotate with the data. Consequently, rotating the positions and velocities rotates the predicted velocity change in exactly the same way. On a held-out test set fixed after model design, training unconstrained graph models on randomly rotated examples reduces but does not eliminate their coordinate dependence. In contrast, IKNO is consistent to numerical precision, matches the forecasting accuracy of a general rotation-aware Tensor Field Network with $5.6$ times fewer parameters, and outperforms a parameter-matched graph simulator. These results show that a compact, PDE-specialized model can remove coordinate dependence without sacrificing forecasting accuracy.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Safe at One Loop, Risky at Another: Aligning Safety Across Recurrent Depths in Looped Language Models

Yi Wang, Xiuyuan Qi, Dongqi Han et al. (+2 more)

Looped Language Models (LoopLMs) provide a parameter efficient approach to scaling model capabilities through repeated use of shared parameters across recurrent steps. Since each recurrent depth can be read out independently, a single LoopLM exposes a broader output space across inference depths, raising an important question: whether safety is preserved throughout recurrent computation. Prior evaluations suggest that deeper recurrence can improve safety on harmful queries, but robustness under jailbreak attacks remains unclear. We therefore conduct a comprehensive safety evaluation of LoopLMs under jailbreak attacks targeting different recurrent depths. We find that attack success can increase at deeper inference depths, the same query can elicit different safety behaviors across depths, and attacks constructed against one depth can transfer to others. Moreover, SFT and preference alignment do not eliminate these safety gaps, motivating an alignment method designed for LoopLMs. We introduce SafeBridge, which combines lightweight depth specific control of shared recurrent layers, selective state bridging, and joint safety supervision across recurrent depths. Across model scales, multiple attack methods, and safety benchmarks, SafeBridge substantially reduces attack success for both matched-depth and cross-depth attacks. It also improves general utility over the vanilla models while maintaining comparable over-refusal behavior. Our results show that the safety of a LoopLM cannot be inferred from a single recurrent depth, motivating safety alignment across recurrent computation. Our code and model checkpoints will be released upon acceptance.
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All authors Yi Wang, Xiuyuan Qi, Dongqi Han, Dongsheng Li, Wenjie Wang

Machine Learning

Recurrent Self-Improvement: Dynamic Cross-Loop On-Policy Distillation for Looped Language Models

Yi Wang, Rui Qian, Yu Li et al. (+2 more)

Looped Language Models (LoopLMs) offer a parameter efficient approach to scaling reasoning by reusing shared parameters across recurrent computation steps. Despite their promise, effective post-training of LoopLMs remains challenging. Existing approaches either provide reward based supervision that is sparse or costly to extend across loops, or rely on external teachers or privileged information, leading to limited teacher availability or teacher-student context mismatch. To address these limitations, we introduce LoopOPD, a cross-loop on-policy distillation framework that uses additional recurrent computation within a LoopLM as its own source of supervision. LoopOPD uses a frozen terminal loop policy as a compute privileged teacher for an intermediate loop student on student generated rollouts, providing dense supervision without an external teacher or privileged information. We further propose Dynamic LoopOPD (D-LoopOPD), which continually refreshes the terminal loop teacher as the shared model parameters are updated, enabling recurrent self-improvement. We characterize how distillation updates propagate across loop depths and derive sufficient conditions under which a single update yields simultaneous local improvement at both loop depths. Experiments on Ouro-Thinking models show that LoopOPD improves mathematical reasoning, while D-LoopOPD yields further gains through dynamic teacher updates. Despite being trained only on mathematical data, the resulting models also improve on general reasoning and code generation benchmarks, demonstrating that recurrent computation can serve as an effective source of supervision for LoopLMs. Our code and model checkpoints will be released upon acceptance.
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All authors Yi Wang, Rui Qian, Yu Li, Haoyang Yao, Wenjie Wang

Machine Learning

Self-Organization from Constrained Geometric Radiation

Ming Lei

How does dynamic order emerge spontaneously in closed systems without external driving? Existing paradigms all require external energy flows, temperature quenching, or slow driving. Here we report constraint-induced self-organization via geometric radiation in coupled metric evolution systems. Simulations reveal a universal four-stage cycle: stress accumulation, super-exponential radiation, chaotic collapse, and convergence to a fractal limit cycle, a novel attractor topology we term the wedge-shaped attractor, with five quantized curvature states and fractal micro-fluctuations. We identify four jointly sufficient conditions: an irreversible geometric horizon, persistent stress injection from quantum coherence, endogenous geometric tension between incompatible curvatures, and effective fluctuations. Their synergy triggers a critical avalanche at the horizon boundary. We prove three theorems: the Geometric Horizon Theorem, the Geometric Energy Dissipation Theorem (implying wave-like entropy evolution in closed systems), and the Radiation as Phase Transition Channel Theorem. We further establish the Constraint-Induced Self-Organization Theorem: these conditions guarantee the complete cycle with probability one. Systematic scans reveal a critical noise threshold and power-law scaling of radiation onset. We verify universality across 12 configurations, multiple noise types, and three geometric flows. This work establishes a new paradigm for closed-system self-organization, forging an exact mathematical duality between classical nonlinear constraints and gravitational horizons.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

MRCert: Towards Post-deployment Patch Robustness Certification for Adversarially Patched Samples via Type-specific Masking

Qilin Zhou, Zhengyuan Wei, Haipeng Wang et al. (+3 more)

In post-deployment time, inputs to deep learning models may or may not be adversarially patched. Patch robustness certification on such inputs within a patch bound can verify their label benignity and should retain high prediction accuracy. However, existing smoothing-based and masking-based recovery defenders cannot achieve both simultaneously: they degrade the prediction accuracy much and cannot verify the benignity of the returned label of an adversarially patched input, respectively. We propose MRCert, the first masking-based certified recovery defender that shows the feasibility of achieving both. Unlike all existing works to apply a common condition across both types of input (benign and adversarially patched samples) for certification, MRCert infers type-specific necessary properties of deep learning models for both types in post-deployment time and formally relates them to verify the label benignity through a novel type-oriented design of label recovery and certification function pair. Without incurring the degradation in clean accuracy caused by smoothing, experimental results confirm that MRCert achieves 35.1% adversarial certified accuracy on ImageNet at patch size 16 pixels, whereas the SOTA PatchCURE fails completely.
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All authors Qilin Zhou, Zhengyuan Wei, Haipeng Wang, Zhuo Wang, Shuo Liu, W.K. Chan