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Computer Science Machine Learning

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Wednesday 7 October

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DS

Attention via Black-Box Vector Search

Sparse attention mechanisms estimate attention over $n$ tokens using a small subset of keys. Many existing approaches use maximum inner product search (MIPS) to retrieve the heaviest keys, which motivates the following question: given black-box access to a MIPS oracle, how many keys must be retrieved to output an $\varepsilon$-accurate attention estimate? We answer this question by unifying prior approaches through the framework of priority sampling. With a single MIPS index, we show that $\Theta(\sqrt{n}/\varepsilon)$ retrieved keys are both sufficient and necessary. With $\Theta(\log n)$ indices, we give an algorithm that retrieves only $O(\log n+1/\varepsilon^2)$ keys and prove that this is near-optimal. More generally, we design algorithms that establish a smooth tradeoff between the number of MIPS indices and number of retrieved keys. We then show that if we allow augmentation of keys and queries, we can bypass the above lower bounds: there exists a simple priority-sampling estimator using a single MIPS index and $O(1/\varepsilon^2)$ retrieved keys. When integrated into LLM inference, our algorithms outperform top-$k$ and sampling approaches used in prior work and yield attention approximation that scales favorably to long contexts.
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All authors Stepan Zharkov, Krish Singal, Ashwin Padaki, Alexandr Andoni

Machine Learning

m-Set Adversarial Bandits with Winner Feedback

We show upper and lower bounds on the regret of $m$-set adversarial bandits for different utilities (winner reward or sum of rewards) and feedback models (winner index, winner reward, sum of rewards, and their combinations). By comparing to standard bounds for combinatorial and MNL bandits, our results reveal how subtle changes in the setting can have a dramatic impact on the learning rates. Our main technical contributions are the information-theoretic lower bounds on the regret. Experiments on synthetic data confirm our theoretical analyses.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR

Training with Missed Targets in Generative Recommendation: Separating Supervision from Probability Competition

Generative recommenders return a limited candidate set and may omit observed targets before reranking. A training strategy appends these missed targets to reranker training lists, although inference still ranks only original candidates. This operation simultaneously changes retrieved-target weight, adds supervision over appended targets, and makes the two groups compete for probability. An append/no-append comparison therefore cannot explain changes in returned-item rankings. We construct three matched losses that hold retrieved-target weight fixed while introducing appended-target supervision and group competition separately. The intermediate loss trains within both groups but normalizes them separately, preventing training-only targets from competing with inference candidates. Experiments with a released OneRec model and locally trained Amazon generators show that this competition can harm returned-item ranking. In four prespecified Amazon Video Games comparisons, removing it improved full-target normalized discounted cumulative gain (FT-NDCG) by 7.8–22.2%; 95% intervals over users and three of four intervals over training runs excluded zero. A conservative development-set rule selected appended-target training for two of three generators in one held-out category and rejected it for all three in another, avoiding a 1.7% loss. Candidate completion should therefore be evaluated for each generator rather than applied automatically.
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Machine Learning

What Can a Gaussian Process Design Test

A Gaussian process (GP) model can agree with the data for two reasons: its assumptions are right, or the chosen inputs could never have shown that they are wrong. The distinction can be checked from the design before any responses are observed. Every model implies relations that its noiseless responses must satisfy at the chosen inputs, such as the middle value lies on the line through its two neighbours. For GPs built from finitely many features, these relations are exactly the null space of the kernel matrix. Gale duality gives them a geometric interpretation, in which each observation has a vector and the smallest groups of observations that can expose an error are the circuits. For other kernels the relations become soft: response patterns may be improbable under the prior rather than algebraically impossible. A standard test then combines two kinds of evidence. Structural evidence comes from a violated relation and grows without limit as the noise falls. Prior-based evidence only says that a departure is improbable under the prior. With all inputs at the two ends of an interval, for example, a GP can reject a straight line against a large curvature, but only because the implied intercept is improbable, never because curvature was seen. In simulations the predicted power matched the observed rejection rates. Choosing the next input by predicted power raised the power against a localised discrepancy from 0.48 to 0.72, against 0.51 when choosing by predictive variance, and a grid in two dimensions contained exact tests of additivity that a Latin hypercube lacked. The test itself is classical. The contribution is the prospective reading of that test: before observing the responses, the design already determines what kind of contradiction it can produce.
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Machine Learning

YANchor-4B: Effective Long-Horizon Reasoning in O(N) Time with O(1) Memory

Long-horizon reasoning demands access to earlier information at a manageable generation cost. Full-history attention incurs growing storage and computation, while recurrent compression can lose precise details. Therefore, we present YANchor-4B, a general-purpose recurrent model that preserves crucial memory as ANchors for retrieval during subsequent reasoning. Beyond $O(N)$-time generation and $O(1)$ memory, YANchor enables effective long-horizon reasoning through its multidimensional memory mechanism. For example, on challenging math problems, it achieves 82.93% mean pass@1 on AIME 2024–2026 and 63.64% on HMMT, substantially outperforming linear-time, constant-state counterparts, including larger models. It also delivers several-fold higher batched long-generation throughput than Transformer and hybrid baselines on H100. Furthermore, evaluations across dozens of benchmarks demonstrate YANchor's superiority in general-purpose capabilities.
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All authors Huishan Ji, Hua Xu, Weiming Zhang, Qirui Ye

Machine Learning

CAFE+FNO: Fourier Kernel Generation via Multiplicative Feature Composition

The Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) learns solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs) through Fourier-space kernel parameterization, but frequency truncation can limit the learning of high-frequency variations. AM-FNO and SirenFNO generate kernels for all grid modes from spectral coordinates using shared networks, making coordinate encoding and generator design important. Recent work on implicit neural representations (INRs) has proposed constructing frequency interactions through explicit feature composition rather than relying on subsequent MLPs to form them implicitly. Building on this approach, we propose CAFE+FNO, which incorporates Content-Aware Frequency Encoding+ (CAFE+) into Fourier kernel generation. CAFE+ combines Fourier–Chebyshev features through parallel affine branches and a Hadamard product, forming interactions within and across the two feature families. A kernel MLP maps the resulting representation of each normalized spectral coordinate to a complex channel-mixing matrix. Each layer shares its generator across all stored modes, making the number of trainable parameters independent of the number of modes for a fixed architecture. We compare CAFE+FNO with existing FNO variants on five PDE benchmarks and conduct ablation studies on basis configuration, multiplicative composition, and bandwidth learnability. Code and experimental configurations are available at https://github.com/fabsk101/CAFEPlusFNO.git.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

ExperienceIndex: Artifact-Grounded Memory

Knowledge-intensive tasks require answering many questions by reasoning about a shared corpus of artifacts (e.g., court cases, or scientific literature). As humans interact with these corpora, they naturally accumulate experiential knowledge about artifacts, enabling them to quickly identify the complete set of relevant artifacts for each new task. However, existing AI agents lack appropriate memory solutions to build or reuse such artifact-grounded experience, leading to lower answer quality and higher online cost. Existing memory solutions extract and reuse information from prior task-solving traces, but they primarily focus on user preferences, factual attributes, or abstract reasoning patterns rather than persistent artifact-specific knowledge. We introduce ExperienceIndex, a novel experience layer for AI agents that captures and reuses knowledge about artifacts based on prior reasoning traces. ExperienceIndex stores two complementary forms of experience: (i) single-artifact experiences that summarize an artifact's contribution to prior tasks and (ii) artifact-pair experiences that encode structural relationships discovered during past reasoning. Integrated as lightweight middleware, ExperienceIndex uses an experience retrieval mechanism to guide agents toward the complete set of relevant artifacts for new tasks, improving both answer quality and efficiency. Across diverse corpora and agentic solutions with different search frameworks, ExperienceIndex delivers consistent gains, raising answer quality by up to 11.0 points and reducing online dollar cost by up to 50.5%. We further demonstrate two benefits: (i) cross-task generalization, where experiences accumulated from text-to-SQL tasks transfer to factoid QA tasks over the same artifact corpus, and (ii) teacher-student learning, where experiences from a stronger model enable a weaker model to reach comparable performance.
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All authors Peter Baile Chen, Geoffrey X. Yu, Xinming Liu, Samuel Madden, Dan Roth, Jacob Andreas, Doug Downey, Michael Cafarella

Machine Learning

Multi-Agent Coordination via Support-Preserving Distillation

Offline MARL increasingly relies on generative policies to model multimodal joint behavior, typically by distilling a centralized teacher into decentralized one-step actors under the CTDE. We identify a failure mode at the teacher training stage: standard flow-based teachers pair noise with replay targets independently, so nearby noise samples can be routed toward conflicting coordination modes. The teacher then produces samples between valid modes, and because the distillation loss regresses each local actor onto the conditional mean of the teacher's output given local input, this error is not absorbed but propagated to the student. To remove this teacher-side artifact, we propose Mode-Support Semi-Discrete Optimal Transport (MoSDOT), which summarizes multimodal replay into a finite mode support with prescribed capacities and uses conditional semi-discrete optimal transport to assign each noise sample to a single mode before teacher training. We additionally study a shared-randomness variant that uses a shared noise component at execution to expose the residual gap intrinsic to strict-product execution. On controlled diagnostics and offline MARL benchmarks, MoSDOT improves endpoint quality and routing consistency, particularly on datasets exhibiting multimodal joint behavior.
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All authors Sangmin Lee, Youngju Na, Chanmi Lee, Sung-eui Yoon

Machine Learning

Activation-Aware Weight Tensorization: A Calibration-Time Preconditioner for Tensor-Network LLM Compression

Post-training tensor-network compression replaces Transformer linear layers with Tensor Train (TT) or Tree Tensor Network (TTN) operators, but standard decompositions minimize weight-space Frobenius error rather than functional error under the layer's activation distribution. We propose Activation-aware Weight Tensorization (AWT), a training-free calibration wrapper that preconditions each weight matrix with a diagonal activation-derived scale before an unchanged TT/TTN solver and deploys the result with only an input-side elementwise rescaling. Across Llama 3.1 8B, Ministral 8B, and Qwen2.5 7B, AWT consistently improves vanilla TT/TTN tensorization at 2-6 times compression: under single-operator replacement, AWT closes 12-35% of the WikiText perplexity gap to the dense baseline across the three model families and 2-6 times compression settings; while under multi-operator Llama suffix replacement it closes 27-60% across attention-group and all-seven-matrix settings. The gains also transfer to downstream HellaSwag and ARC-Challenge evaluations. We further show that diagonal preconditioning is a robustness-modularity tradeoff rather than a diagonal-covariance assumption: a dense full-covariance oracle wins its own weighted objective in 80/81 cases, yet diagonal AWT gives better held-out functional fidelity in 53/81 cases. Together, these results position AWT as a principled, modular preconditioner for improving functional fidelity in fixed TT/TTN compression pipelines without modifying the decomposition solver.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.ST

Sharp Asymptotic Theory of Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Gaussian Processes with an RBF Kernel

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the kernel parameters are routinely estimated by the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), as implemented by standard GP software. Despite this widespread use, the asymptotic behavior of the MLEs remains poorly understood under fixed-domain asymptotics, even for the RBF kernel. The main difficulty arises from the increasingly strong dependence among densely sampled observations and the nonlinear dependence of the covariance matrix on the kernel parameters. In this paper, we address this gap by providing, to the best of our knowledge, the first complete asymptotic characterization of the joint MLE of the spatial variance, lengthscale, and nugget variance under fixed-domain asymptotics. We establish consistency, derive convergence rates for all three parameters, prove joint asymptotic normality, and show that these rates are minimax optimal.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Towards Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasts for Events of Interest via Outcome-Conditional Recalibration

Calibration is an essential requirement for probabilistic predictions to be useful for decision making. While state-of-the-art prediction methods often yield miscalibrated predictive distributions, several post-hoc recalibration schemes have been proposed to generate calibrated predictions. However, popular recalibration schemes can conceal miscalibration in specific regions of the outcome space. Since particular outcomes, such as extreme events, often matter most for decision making, probabilistic predictions should be calibrated when evaluation is restricted to these outcomes. Hence, in this paper, we introduce outcome-conditional recalibration, a post-hoc method to recalibrate probabilistic predictions on user-defined regions of the outcome space. The method is simple, easy to implement, and can be applied to arbitrary predictive distributions. It works by applying the quantile recalibration approach of Kuleshov et al. (2018) to forecast conditional distributions, before rescaling these conditional distributions so that forecast event probabilities match empirical occurrence frequencies. This produces valid and continuous predictive distributions that are calibrated within each region of interest. Across regression benchmarks, we demonstrate that existing recalibration schemes do not necessarily yield calibrated predictions when interest is on particular outcomes, and that our approach improves outcome-conditional calibration relative to existing conditional and unconditional recalibration methods, while retaining competitive calibration overall. In an application to day-ahead electricity price forecasting, the approach substantially improves calibration when predicting negative prices, at negligible cost to forecast accuracy.
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Machine Learning

Efficient Provably Private Classification with a Tabular Foundation Model

Tabular data underpin prediction and decision-making in medicine, finance, government and science, but often contain sensitive individual-level information, creating a need for accurate prediction while preserving privacy. Traditional private learning provides formal privacy guarantees, but requires slow dataset-specific optimisation, suffers substantial utility loss under strong privacy, and is often difficult to apply correctly. Tabular foundation models adapt rapidly to new datasets, but existing models lack formal privacy guarantees, and are highly vulnerable to membership-inference attacks, limiting their use on sensitive data. Here we introduce PrivTab, an easy to use tabular foundation model for differentially private classification that embeds a privacy mechanism within its architecture. Pretrained on simulated datasets, PrivTab uses in-context learning to transform sensitive rows into compact, provably private summaries—effectively learning how to learn under privacy. PrivTab outperforms private linear and neural-network baselines under moderate-to-strong privacy, shows negligible membership leakage, maintains well-calibrated predictions under strong privacy, and reduces dataset fitting time by 10,000 times, requiring only a single forward pass. By combining formal privacy, speed, and easy of use, PrivTab brings recent advances in AI to applications where sensitive individual-level data have limited their adoption.
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All authors Talal Alrawajfeh, Cristiana Diaconu, Ossi Räisä, Sebastian Rodriguez Beltran, Yuan He, John Bronskill, Richard E. Turner, Antti Honkela

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.GR

TRACK: Telemetry-Based Racing Analysis and Coaching Kit in Sim Racing Games

This paper presents TRACK (Telemetry-Based Racing Analysis and Coaching Kit), which is a framework for analyzing driving performance in sim racing and profiling how individual drivers behave behind the wheel. We report this framework together with its limitations: we calibrate each clustering result against a null, and when one does not separate from chance, we say so. Instead of restricting ourselves to scoring drivers or sorting them into preset labels, we represent each recording session as a compact geometry in a four-dimensional behavioral space (speed, braking, strategy, and consistency), and we group these fingerprints by their similarity using unsupervised clustering. Over time, we have developed and refined this framework on the open Assetto Corsa Gym (ACGym) dataset. Our study suggests that corner types differ along a behavioral dimension that was not used to define them. It also suggests that when the car changes, only speed and consistency carry over in the restricted population, while repeatability could not be shown there for any of the braking or strategy measures. Cluster separation becomes less distinct as the range of available telemetry widens. Until that repeatability is shown, grouping on the braking and strategy dimensions cannot treat the car as interchangeable, which divides an already small sample into smaller cells. It is also not clear whether a driver's grouping carries over from one corner type to the next. We also normalize each metric against a reinforcement-learning reference agent. The reference does not depend on the sample, so the scale does not shift when the sample does. We intend these results as an analytical foundation for a personalized improvement suggestion system. The sample is small. The cross-car result changes when the sample is defined more broadly. These outcomes are preliminary.
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Machine Learning

WxFM-XL: Adapting Univariate Foundation Models to Multi-Station Weather Forecasting

With the rise of univariate time series foundation models (e.g., Sundial, Timer), initial efforts have been made to extend them to multivariate settings. However, these models mainly focus on modeling correlations among variables. When they are applied to multi-station weather forecasting, two important factors are often overlooked: (1) the spatial information of stations, and (2) different error priors of different stations relative to the foundation model. In this paper, we propose WxFM-XL, a model for adapting univariate time series foundation models to multi-station weather forecasting. WxFM-XL introduces a cross-station error correlation prior graph to capture stationwise error priors with respect to the foundation model. Building on this, we further propose a dynamic fusion mechanism that adaptively integrates a spatial correlation graph with the error correlation prior graph. Experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms state of the art baselines.
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All authors Xiao Wang, Changjian Chen, Zhuo Tang, Rongwen Li, Hongwu Liu, Kenli Li

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SY

Transition Path Sampling Using Koopman Operators and Exit-Time Optimal Control

Sampling transitions between metastable states is a central problem in dynamical systems theory and molecular dynamics in particular. A key challenge is the existence of high free-energy barriers that separate the states, making transitions extremely rare. Recent machine learning-based methods cast transition path sampling (TPS) as an optimal stochastic control (OSC) problem over a fixed time horizon, and parameterize the drift bias via a neural network trained by simulation-in-the-loop, requiring repeated biased rollouts. To address computational and performance guarantee issues of these models, we propose a new approach for the problem based on Koopman operators. Because Koopman operators are linear, their leading eigenfunctions reveal the metastable sets and provide an estimate of the committor function with no transition path information required. Furthermore, we formulate TPS as an OSC problem up to an exit time. Our time horizon is the first hitting time of the target set, and our running cost penalizes time spent in nonreactive regions by encoding the estimated committor function. We derive the optimal controller in closed form and approximate it in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). This reduces the problem of constructing the optimal controller to solving a single equality-constrained quadratic program, whose solution can be characterized by a linear Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) system. On the two-channel double well and alanine dipeptide, our controller increases the fraction of trajectories reaching the target from 0% to 99.8% within 1000 steps, and from 0% to 93% within 1ps, respectively.
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All authors Boya Hou, Shane Wang, Siddharth Ambekar, Maxim Raginsky, Olgica Milenkovic

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CE

Evolve on the Host, Predict on the Edge: Deploying Online Neuroevolutionary Architecture Search for Cross-sectional Stock Return Prediction

Accurate forecasting models are usually large, expensive to update online, and fixed in architecture once trained. We apply ONE-NAS, an online neuroevolutionary architecture search that evolves a population of small recurrent networks as each window of data arrives, to daily cross-sectional stock return prediction, and pilot it on a host and endpoint pipeline: the host runs the search and ships each generation's champion genomes over TCP/IP to a Raspberry Pi 4B, which predicts online. On the Pi a single champion predicts a 50-stock window in 24.6~ms and the ensemble of 40 island champions in 556~ms, far inside the daily decision cycle. On four panels of US mid-cap equities over 2022–2024, reading the population as a rank-mean ensemble of island champions returns $+27.5\%$ net of realised transaction costs, against $+11.3$ to $+14.8\%$ for online LSTM, online GRU and monthly-retrained LSTM baselines and $+4.5\%$ for the single best genome used in prior ONE-NAS work.
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Machine Learning

Matching of signal, noise and hardware timescales for filtering and forecasting of correlated noise signals

Physical reservoir computing exploits the nonlinear dynamics of physical systems to process time-dependent data with greater energy efficiency than conventional machine learning approaches. However, physical reservoirs have fixed intrinsic response timescales, whereas real-world signals combine deterministic and stochastic components across multiple timescales. Here we show, using a nanoporous niobium oxide reservoir, synthetic noisy signals and cryptocurrency-price volatility, that the relationship among noise correlation time, reservoir memory and forecast horizon determines whether correlated noise is filtered or predicted. Noise varying faster than the relevant reservoir memory and forecast horizon is averaged by the reservoir, whereas the temporal structure of slower-varying noise is sufficient for algorithmic forecasting. We introduce the reservoir memory horizon and forecasting regime index to distinguish these operating regimes. These contributions demonstrate that timescale matching can guide the encoding of input time series and development of physical reservoir architectures that filter, analyse and predict stochastic signal components across distinct temporal scales.
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All authors Joshua Donald, Alex Gabbitas, Arthur G. T. Coveney, Sergey Savel'ev, Pavel Borisov

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Gaussian Equivalence for Multi-Head Self-Attention

A theoretical understanding of multi-head self-attention is fundamental to the study of modern neural networks. Using random matrix theory, we establish Gaussian equivalence for multi-head self-attention: replacing softmax attention with rescaled scores plus Gaussian noise preserves the limiting spectral law of the centered output. This equivalence also covers value and output projections that depend on the keys. The resulting laws separate the effects of head allocation and projection widths, and distinguish spectrum-preserving across-head sharing from within-head key–value dependence.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-bio.NC

Structure alone supports efficient visual computation in the Drosophila visual system

Understanding the extent to which measured synaptic wiring determines computation remains a central challenge. Here, we couple the proofread adult Drosophila melanogaster connectome to an anatomically faithful model of its eye. Visual information is inputted in the eye model, then passed to the connectome, and finally read from a Kenyon-cell-centered linear decoder. This creates a connectome-only model in which the anatomical graph and eye geometry are fixed and only scalar synaptic gains and neuronal thresholds may be learned. The model supports multitask vision, including color discrimination, shape classification, and numerical discrimination that follows a ratio-dependent scaling characteristic of approximate number perception. To test whether precise connectivity is consequential under wiring economy, we compare the biological graph to randomized ensembles that increasingly preserve biological synaptic constraints. At matched wiring cost, the biological network consistently yields higher accuracy, whereas less constrained rewiring surpasses it at the cost of inflated wiring. These findings indicate that the measured connectivity and eye geometry jointly set efficient operating points for visual computation.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Controlling Dependence in Implicit Generative Models via Spread Mutual Information

Mutual information (MI) provides an objective for suppressing or encouraging statistical dependence in implicit generative models. However, direct MI evaluation is challenging in implicit models due to typically intractable densities. A remedy is estimating the generator gradient from the difference between conditional and marginal scores. This score difference can, in turn, be estimated by differentiating a log density ratio learned through classification. This construction nevertheless faces two difficulties: (i) singular distributions need not admit the required score functions, and (ii) poor overlap can hinder density-ratio estimation. We therefore introduce Spread Mutual Information (SMI), a weighted integral of MI across noise levels obtained by applying a common spreading kernel to the generated variable. Gaussian spreading yields smooth, strictly positive conditional and marginal densities, extending the gradient construction to distributions that may originally be singular. Across a variaty of experiments, SMI consistently achieves effective dependence control among MI-based methods and remains competitive with established task-specific approaches.
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All authors Jiahao Yu, Song Liu, José Miguel Hernández-Lobato, RuiKang OuYang

Machine Learning

Oscillatory Neural Dynamics over Sheaves

Effective long-range propagation remains a central challenge in graph neural networks, as increasing a model's propagation depth does not guarantee that distant nodes effectively influence each other. Sheaf neural networks enrich graph propagation through matrix-valued transport between stalks; still, this expressivity alone does not automatically imply effective long-range communication. We introduce ONDA, a long-range graph learning framework based on operator-valued information waves. Stalk-valued representations evolve through second-order dynamics governed by learned sheaf transport operators, combining wave-like propagation with expressive local geometry. We characterize long-range influence through a stalk-wise sensitivity analysis and show that the cross-influence never vanishes. Across long-range propagation, severe graph bottlenecks, graph transfer, and heterophilic benchmarks, ONDA consistently improves over scalar wave propagation, diffusive sheaf baselines, and state-of-the-art models, demonstrating the benefit of coupling wave dynamics with matrix-valued transport.
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All authors Jan-Willem Van Looy, Alessandro Trenta, Alessio Gravina, Alessio Borgi, Ferdinando Zanchetta, Pietro Liò, Davide Bacciu, Rita Fioresi

Machine Learning

A Drosophila Whole-Connectome Network Can Learn Human-Designed Cognitive Tasks

Can a biological wiring diagram serve as a useful computational substrate beyond the behaviors for which it evolved? We use the publicly released MaleCNS v1.0 connectome, reconstructed from a single adult male Drosophila specimen, as the fixed recurrent topology of an artificial network. We train separate models for bounded addition and for a controlled grounded relational language task built from a fixed 100-word lexicon. In both models, one scalar is learned per anatomical edge. The anatomical graph reaches 92.77% mean accuracy on held-out addition, compared with 67.93% for directed degree-preserving rewires. On the strict paired language endpoint, which matches original and order-reversed scenes to their corresponding descriptions, it reaches 61.59% across four fixed interfaces, compared with 44.17% for matched rewires. At the canonical interface, it ranks first in a fixed 21-graph comparison. On the matched 48-group intervention subset, shuffling task-defined sensory features reduces its score from 60.94% to 19.27%. Together, these results show that higher-order MaleCNS wiring provides a reusable inductive bias for bounded addition and grounded relational language.
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Machine Learning

Beyond Reward Suppression: Near-Optimal Offline Attacks on Warm-Start Bandits with Bounded Rewards

Adversarial attacks on bandits aim to mislead a learner toward a target arm while keeping the attack cost small. Existing attacks typically achieve this by suppressing non-target arms. In practice, however, manipulation such as fake reviews often directly promotes the target item. We study this gap through bounded offline attacks on warm-start bandits, where an attacker can inject only valid action-reward pairs into the warm-start history before deployment. We show that target promotion is not merely a heuristic: when the target arm lies near the lower reward boundary, any order-optimal-cost attack against UCB that makes it selected in nearly all online rounds must allocate a nonvanishing fraction of its cost to the target arm. We then design an attack that achieves the optimal sublinear cost and characterize its allocation between target promotion and non-target suppression. We further extend the attack to Thompson Sampling, $\epsilon$-greedy, and a broader class of bandit algorithms. Experiments on real-world and synthetic data validate the effectiveness of our attacks.
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All authors Qirun Zeng, Manhin Poon, Xiangxiang Dai, Qixin Zhang, Jinhang Zuo

Machine Learning

Temporal Predictive Multiplicity: Equally Accurate Time Series Models Yield Different Forecast Trajectories

Models with near-identical predictive performance can yield substantially different predictions, a phenomenon known as predictive multiplicity. Prior work has mostly studied this at the level of individual scalar outputs. In time-series forecasting, however, predictions across horizons jointly define a trajectory, and horizon-wise comparisons can hide important differences in predictive behavior. To address this problem, we introduce temporal predictive multiplicity, a framework that characterizes disagreement over complete forecast trajectories among models with near-identical predictive performance. We show that constraining predictive performance alone can still admit a broad range of different trajectories. We further show that constraining multiplicity at individual horizons partially reduces, but does not eliminate, trajectory-level multiplicity. Experiments with 19 neural forecasting architectures on 11 datasets confirm that near-optimal models can exhibit substantial variability in the forecast trajectories they produce, and trajectory-level disagreement is largely unrelated to horizon-wise disagreement. Our framework, therefore, exposes a gap in existing multiplicity studies: models with indistinguishable predictive performance imply fundamentally different temporal trajectories, with consequential downstream effects.
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All authors Emanuele Albini, Francesca Toni, Saumitra Mishra, Francesco Leofante

Machine Learning

Efficient Patch-Based Anomaly Detection Fused with Diffusion Driven Generative Modeling for Semiconductor Wafer Bin Map Open Set Anomaly Detection

Spatial defect signatures on wafer bin maps (WBMs) trace yield loss to specific process faults, yet supervised classifiers recognize only the defect types seen during training, and one-class detectors built on a single mechanism tend to capture either local structural deviations or global distributional violations, but rarely both. This work proposes a hybrid one-class framework that couples a patch-based student-teacher detector (EfficientAD) with a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) used for partial-diffusion reconstruction, and fuses their percentile-calibrated scores through a fixed convex combination. Trained on only 700 normal wafers from the WM-38K mixed-type dataset and evaluated on 18,658 held-out wafers, the fused detector reached an AUROC of 0.9985 and reduced misclassifications from 852 (DDPM) and 1,412 (EfficientAD) to 618, with all pairwise differences significant at p < 0.001. Beyond aggregate accuracy, the analysis shows that the gain arises from weakly overlapping errors between the two modules, yet fixed-weight fusion recovers only 40-70% of the correction available to an oracle selector. Under the benchmark's inverted class balance, average precision and F1 saturate, while the Matthews correlation coefficient and negative predictive value expose unreliable normal predictions. Pixel-level maps further show that strong image-level separability does not imply spatial localization, and the diffusion module succeeds as a local density prior rather than through global geometric reasoning. These findings motivate sample-adaptive fusion and imbalance-aware evaluation of hybrid wafer anomaly detectors.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.GT

Marrying Pricing and Advertising with LLMs

We study a sequential pricing problem in which a seller jointly posts a price and an advertisement generated by a large language model (LLM). The seller aims to maximize revenue under an unknown product demand that depends on both decisions, while observing only whether each offer leads to a purchase. We propose an online actor-critic algorithm that combines low-rank adaptation (LoRA) of a pretrained LLM with a demand model fitted to available data. At each round, the actor generates an advertisement, and the critic estimates purchase probabilities to guide price selection. Then, the resulting feedback is used to update both the actor and the critic, with the critic's revenue estimates providing a baseline for policy gradient updates of the actor. To evaluate our approach, we develop an evaluation framework with three synthetic demand models and a demand simulator built from real-world marketplace data. Finally, we compare our algorithm with benchmarks that do not jointly optimize price selection and advertisement generation, achieving expected revenue gains over the reference policy of 5.69%, 5.18% and 55.96% under the three synthetic demand models and 5.81% under the marketplace simulator.
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All authors Alessandro Barro, Francesco Bacchiocchi, Francesco Emanuele Stradi, Alberto Marchesi

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Extreme Binary Classification: Extreme Value Theory for Extreme Constraint on False Negative

While binary classification is one of the most extensively studied problems in machine learning, the regime in which the goal is to learn a classifier with an almost zero false negative rate remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce the Extreme Binary Classification problem, where the objective is to learn a classifier whose false negative rate $\alpha$ is constrained by $\epsilon_{N_1}=o_{N_1\to\infty}(1/N_1)$, with $N_1$ denoting the number of positive examples in the training set. To address this problem, we propose a threshold adaptation method theoretically grounded in guarantees derived from Extreme Value Theory, together with a feature selection procedure based on a permutation test applied to sample maxima. Experimental results on four real-world datasets of varying sizes demonstrate that our approach compares favorably with state-of-the-art methods. In addition, we illustrate its interpretability through an application to a cancer screening dataset.
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Machine Learning

TR-PTQ: High-Accuracy Integer-Only Transformer Post Training Quantization via Taylor Region Reformulation

Post-training quantization (PTQ) enables efficient deployment, yet transformer architectures remain challenging to quantize due to nonlinear layers. While existing methods attribute accuracy loss to insufficient numerical precision, often necessitating floating-point fallbacks, we demonstrate that degradation is actually driven by specific structural error sources. We find that learned scale parameters in normalization layers and compounded approximations in GELU are the primary error contributors, whereas SoftMax remains inherently robust to aggressive quantization. To address these bottlenecks, we introduce TR-PTQ, a unified integer-only formulation using shared Taylor Region (TR) exponential and logarithm primitives. This approach allows computationally expensive operations, including division and square roots, to be performed entirely in the log-domain via standard integer arithmetic. Combined with a calibration-free, outlier-aware optimization for LayerNorm parameters, our method eliminates the need for floating-point hardware units for nonlinearities, achieving less than 1.5% absolute accuracy degradation across vision and language benchmarks.
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Machine Learning

Force without transmission: a depth-induced rank collapse that no loss on the representation reopens

Training can drive a transformer into a rank collapse: all token representations point in one direction, and learning stops. In a related collapse of attention, a loss term with a bounded corrective force repairs the network during the run. We ask whether such a term repairs rank collapse. We collapse small transformers by weakening their skip connection and treat copies of the collapsed network. No added loss term repaired the collapse, although the stronger kind pushed with about a tenth of the task gradient. The reason was the path, not the strength. The task gradient no longer reached the query and key weights, which decide where attention looks, and the added term's gradient faded before the blocks where the collapse forms. Restoring the skip connection, which changes no weight, reopened this path at once. The rank then recovered, but only far above the scale of collapse. After a burst of high learning rate the path stayed open and the rank recovered untreated. Registered predictions from the path ranked recovery times but did not transfer to this cause. In every case the loss stayed above that of a healthy network after the rank recovered. Whether a collapsed network can be repaired depends on whether the gradient still reaches the weights that must change, not on how strongly a loss term pushes.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Possibilistic Radial Transport for Approximate IM Inference

Probing the hypothesis space after seeing the data remains valid under possibilistic inferential models (IMs), provided the significance level stays fixed. The price is computation, as each plausibility is a supremum of the possibility contour over the hypothesis, and the contour itself is approximated at each queried parameter value. We propose a possibilistic radial transport, which hides the contour value of a parameter in the radius of its source point. When a transport that maximizes within-shell entropy is picked, sampling parameters covering a confidence cut becomes a matter of truncating the radius. We provide a deep learning algorithm that enforces the contour depth condition while maximizing the entropy within each shell. Our amortization makes coverage and power assessments of the learned approximation practical as well as predictive check of new datasets. We also use the sampler to construct a Bel-Pl spectrum for comparing and selecting interpretable hypotheses that satisfy a prescribed Bel-Pl decision criterion. In simulations the learned contours match or improve on ellipsoidal approximations to the cuts, while the coverage and power track the exact reference. Finally, we probe hypotheses about ovarian aging using synthetic AMH records, asking for each woman how many more years her median AMH level will remain above a specified reference value.
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