Peer Revenue Fully funded

Papers

Fresh from arXiv, typeset properly. Highlighted words trade on the market.

Computer Science Machine Learning

cs.LG Watch Machine Learning (sign in to use)

Thursday 1 October

Machine Learning

Context-Aware Error Mitigation Orchestration for Hybrid Quantum Reinforcement Learning on NISQ Systems

Quantum Reinforcement Learning (QRL) integrates reinforcement learning with parameterized quantum circuits and is a promising approach to combinatorial optimization. On Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices, however, decoherence, gate imperfections, and measurement errors reduce policy quality and make learning less reliable. Existing error mitigation techniques are generally applied as fixed corrections that do not adapt to changing noise conditions or to the evolving state of training. This work presents Adaptive Policy-Guided Error Mitigation (APGEM) as a context-aware orchestration layer of the hybrid quantum-classical training loop that dynamically selects the most suitable mitigation strategy during QRL training. APGEM evaluates Zero-Noise Extrapolation (ZNE), Probabilistic Error Cancellation (PEC), Clifford Data Regression (CDR), and Readout Error Mitigation (REM) using policy-level indicators, including quantum-state fidelity, policy entropy, cumulative reward, and approximation ratio, and integrates the selected strategy directly into the reinforcement learning loop. The framework is evaluated on the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP), a representative NP-hard problem in urban logistics, under a range of NISQ noise models and noise levels. APGEM consistently outperforms conventional static mitigation methods, reaches approximately 94% of the utility of an oracle strategy, maintains higher quantum-state fidelity as noise increases, and produces more stable learning behaviour throughout training. Ablation studies show that the framework learns context-aware mitigation policies that adapt to different noise environments and circuit execution conditions. These findings demonstrate that integrating adaptive error mitigation into the learning process substantially improves the robustness and reliability of QRL on NISQ hardware.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Mixture-Trained Merging for Unified Multi-Objective Models

Unified language models are increasingly expected to combine heterogeneous capabilities, such as mathematics, code, instruction following, and controllable thinking behavior, within a single set of parameters. A common solution is sequential post-training on multiple objectives, but this entangles all objectives along one optimization trajectory and makes the final model highly sensitive to training order, data ratios, schedules, and stopping criteria. Weight-space merging offers a modular alternative, but naive merging of single-objective experts often fails: domain capabilities degrade sharply, or think/non-think modes collapse into one dominant behavior. We attribute both failures to incompatible weight-space geometry: experts trained on single objectives drift to distant regions of parameter space, placing their interpolations outside any shared low-loss basin. We propose Mixture-Trained Merging (MTM), which trains each branch on an objective-biased data mixture rather than a single objective, exposing it to cross-objective interactions and making branches compatible at merge time. MTM uses merged-model evaluations as a low-cost signal for selecting branch mixtures, avoiding expensive data-mixture ablations. The procedure is iterative: each round promotes the base model using globally selected merge coefficients and refines each branch mixture using domain-preferred coefficients under constraints that preserve other objectives. To scale beyond simplex grid search, MTM uses qNEHVI-based multi-objective Bayesian optimization. Across code, mathematics, instruction following, and think/non-think control, MTM outperforms naive merging and preserves behavioral separation where single-objective merging collapses, suggesting that effective unified models require branches trained to be mergeable.
Read the full abstract

All authors SeongHyeon Kim, Chaeyun Jang, Seungyoo Lee, Jiyeon Ham, Yunju Bak, Boseop Kim, Juho Lee

Machine Learning

Supervise What Decides Success: Criterion-Aligned Auxiliary Losses for Latent World-Model Planning

Latent world models plan by scoring candidate action sequences with distances in latent space. However, task success is judged by physical quantities, which we call the success-criterion quantities. In all four latent world models we examine, the end-effector position is encoded in the latent state with an error larger than the success criterion allows. Such a latent state cannot separate successful candidates from failing ones. We propose an auxiliary loss that uses success-criterion quantities as training targets, whereas existing latent world models take them only as inputs. During training, a linear head on the encoder and predictor outputs regresses the success-criterion quantities, and the regression error is added to the training loss. The head is discarded after training, so the model, its cost, and its inputs at test time are unchanged. This loss alone improves the success rate on PushT and cube by 3.5% and 3.4% (absolute), respectively, and both improvements are statistically significant. A success criterion thus specifies what a world model must retain in its latent state, and we show that it can serve directly as a training target.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Have an LLM Write Your Anomaly Detector: Autonomous Discovery of Compact, Interpretable Detectors for Time Series

Time-series anomaly detection trades off predictive accuracy, computational efficiency, and interpretability. We use a large language model not as the detector but as the author of one: an autonomous research loop in which the model repeatedly edits a single short NumPy program under a leakage-free objective, keeping the best-scoring detector it finds. The loop discovers two compact detectors, one for univariate and one for multivariate series, that describe short windows by their local spectral features and compare them with the training-region distribution through a covariance-aware distance. On the TSB-AD benchmark these detectors lead the field across metrics, ahead of the strongest classical, deep, and foundation-model baselines including Time-RCD, yet they train no network and use no GPU, and the multivariate detector is faster than every similarly performing baseline. LLM-driven program search is thus a practical route to accurate, efficient, and transparent detectors.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Autoregressive Drillhole Modelling Under Distribution Shift

Autoregressive modelling has achieved remarkable success in language and sequence tasks by learning to predict future states from previous observation. Mineral-exploration drillholes provide a natural but largely unexplored setting for this paradigm: as drilling proceeds, lithology is revealed sequentially from shallow to deep, making prediction of deeper strata inherently autoregressive. Existing drillhole modelling, however, is dominated by spatial interpolation and reconstruction, or largely rely on masked modelling, leaving strictly autoregressive prediction largely underexplored. We introduce DrillBench, a benchmark of 49,671 Western Australian drillholes for next-layer prediction and autoregressive stratigraphic generation across a graded transfer spectrum, from local prediction through spatial shift to cross geological province transfer. Benchmarking classical, geostatistical, and neural models reveals a clear transfer boundary: spatial and geochemical conditioning provides large local gains but deteriorates sharply under stronger shift, whereas lithology-sequence autoregressive models transfer more robustly. Guided by this finding, we develop a backbone-agnostic recipe combining large-scale pretraining on historical drillholes with spatial retrieval of neighbouring lithology. Retrieval is most effective in weathered cover, when local spatial continuity remains informative, whereas pretraining contributes more strongly in bedrock and under broader geological shift. Together, they retain strong local performance while improving generalisation under spatial and cross-province shift, most markedly on the most distant splits. The benchmark and code are available at https://github.com/yihaoding/drillbench.
Read the full abstract

All authors Yihao Ding, Daniel Yitian Su, Yiran Zhang, Christopher M. Gonzalez, Wei Liu

Machine Learning

Low-Budget Active Learning through Entropic Optimal Transport

We consider low-budget active learning, which consists of selecting a limited number of points, the coreset, such that a model can be trained to high accuracy on the selection only. This problem is particularly relevant in contexts where labeling requires costly expert intervention, as in medical applications. We leverage features extracted from a pretrained self-supervised model to represent the data, and perform coreset selection directly in this feature space. In this paper, we use entropic optimal transport, specifically the Sinkhorn divergence, as the coreset selection criterion, which first allows us to get dimension-free sample complexity results, and second admits computationally efficient gradient evaluations. This opens the way to using gradient-based algorithms to rapidly compute solution candidates, further improved by a swap-based local search, with guarantees on the solution quality. Experiments on image benchmarks and medical datasets show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art heuristics in low-budget settings.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Counterfactual Generation via Flow Matching: Coupling-Sensitive End-to-End Rates

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source–target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Fully Online Decentralized Learning in Stochastic Games with Unknown Independent Chains

We consider stochastic games with independent controlled chains and unknown transition kernels, where players observe only their local states and realized payoffs. We develop a fully online, decentralized, and uncoordinated mirror-descent algorithm that operates in the dual space of occupancy measures for approximating stationary Nash equilibrium (NE) policies. The algorithm uses a single transition/reward sample at every primitive time step, relies only on local information, and requires neither coverage of the joint state space nor synchronized episodes. Under uniform-ergodicity and finite-coverage assumptions, we show that, with high probability, the time-averaged fixed-comparator regret decays at the canonical $O(T^{-1/2})$ rate, up to logarithmic factors and polynomial dependence on the game parameters. In particular, the complexity depends on the cover times of the individual local state spaces rather than the product state space, avoiding exponential dependence on the number of players and the sizes of the joint state and action spaces. The resulting finite-time regret bound further yields an approximate coarse-correlated-equilibrium guarantee, which is natural for arbitrary reward functions since computing a stationary $\epsilon$-NE is PPAD-hard in this setting. Under an additional global variational-stability condition, we show that the same fully online algorithm converges asymptotically in the last iterate to a stationary $\epsilon$-NE. Our results provide a fully online and scalable learning framework for stochastic games with unknown independent chains. The algorithm can also be viewed as a primal-dual framework for Markov games that exploits the independence and local structure of the players' controlled transition chains.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Temporally-Resolved Token Attribution Reveals the Generation Dynamics of Diffusion Language Models

This work presents Diffusion Layer Integrated Gradients (DLIG), a token attribution method for diffusion language models (DLMs) that extends Integrated Gradients (IG~\cite{sundararajan2017axiomatic}) to arbitrary layers and denoising steps. DLIG attributes a DLM's progressive commitment to a self-generated or fixed completion for an input prompt. We establish direct correspondences between DLIG and the IG axioms of completeness, implementation invariance, linearity, and symmetry preservation. As a lightweight complement to interventional analysis, DLIG provides an inexpensive first check of mechanistic hypotheses across the denoising trajectory. We demonstrate this on word-sense disambiguation, multi-hop graph reasoning, and sentence infilling, revealing how DLMs draw on inputs across positions, layers, and denoising steps.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Rethinking the Information Bottleneck: Structured Decomposition under Label-Induced Partitions

Standard information bottleneck (IB) regularization constrains representations via a single scalar I(Z;X), implicitlytreating all information as homogeneous. However, a single global compression control couples label-relevant structurewith residual within-condition variation, rather than regulating their allocation independently, allowing nuisanceinformation to persist in learned representations. For example, in medical imaging applications, residual variation oftenstems from acquisition conditions, background factors, or subject-specific appearance. This issue becomes particularlypronounced in data-limited settings, where models tend to overfit such variation, hindering generalization. While existingregularization methods can stabilize training, control capacity, or shape representation geometry, they do not explicitlyseparate nuisance-like variation from task-supporting structure. To address this limitation, we revisit IB from a structuredperspective based on a label-induced partition, where condition-level structure and within-condition information playdistinct roles. This leads to a dual-bottleneck formulation: a standard KL term controls global information capacity, while aconditional KL term targets within-condition information. We show that the conditional KL admits an exact decompositioninto a within-condition information term and a prior-mismatch term, explaining its alignment with the design objective.With a simplex-structured conditional prior, the method provides controllable latent geometry and integrates seamlesslyinto existing pipelines. Experiments on classification and segmentation show the clearest gains in low-data classificationand consistent improvements across dense prediction benchmarks.
Read the full abstract

All authors Jingyao Zhang, Yuxuan Li, Lu Han, Ali Anaissi, Nguyen H. Tran

Machine Learning

CAGE-NAS: Certified Functional Descent for Efficient Model Growth

The progressive growth of neural networks requires deciding when the current representation remains sufficient for optimization and when it should be expanded. CAGE-NAS formulates this decision in function space through an admissibility criterion on approximations of the functional gradient. As long as a representation enables a certified Functional Gradient Descent step, the architecture remains fixed; when the criterion fails, a function-preserving expansion is applied and the resulting representation is evaluated again. As the main instance, we study the family induced by the tangent space, using a regularized projection of the functional gradient. In a controlled setting with exact certification, CAGE-NAS produces architectures positioned above the 99.8th performance percentile by held-out RMSE among all admissible alternatives within the same parameter budget, without enumerating them during the growth trajectory.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Learning Rate Transfer for Hybrid Transformer-SSM Architectures

We study learning rate (LR) scaling for hybrid architectures combining Transformer and State-Space Model (SSM) blocks, a class adopted by several recent production language models. In particular, we focus on the gap between the theoretical scaling rules derived for SSMs under zero-order-hold (ZOH) discretization at infinite width with growing state size, and the field-standard practical implementations using simplified-ZOH Mamba at fixed state size. Surprisingly, in this practical regime hybrid architectures achieve a near-zero LR transfer gap across widths 256-2048 and depths 4-32 up to billion-parameter scale using only the original $\mu$P prescription, even though SSM operations fall outside its Tensor Programs representability conditions and every parameterization we test fails the standard coordinate-check diagnostic of $\mu$P correctness. We attribute this to a two-condition decomposition of LR transfer in hybrid architectures: a global update-to-weight invariance, enforced by $\mu$P's initialization and LR scaling; and a local per-component balance, provided by AdamW's per-parameter normalization. Our observations show that the optimal LR is invariant to width up to 8$\times$, that this width invariance holds across depth, sequence length, batch size, and Transformer-to-SSM ratio, and that it transfers to Nemotron-H, a production hybrid outside our custom architecture set. We hope these findings fill the gap between theoretical scaling rules and practical hybrid implementations, and stimulate further research toward bridging it.
Read the full abstract

All authors Jimin Seo, Gyubok Lee, Yeonsik Jo, Kiwoong Yoo, Yeongoon Kim, Minhae Oh, Jin Woo Koo, Suhwan Kim, Nakyung Lee, Minsik Seol, Idris Nechnech, Jaehyeon Kim, Giho Lee, Jungwoo Lee

Machine Learning

Detect, Explain, Interpret: An End-to-End Benchmark for Time Series Anomaly Detection, Explainability and Interpretability

Time Series Anomaly Detection has received increasing attention, driven by the growing availability of complex time series data. This surge has led to the development of numerous detection methods, as well as a variety of benchmarks aimed at thoroughly evaluating their performance. However, most existing detectors remain largely agnostic to domain context, overlooking explainability and interpretability. One of the main reasons for this gap is that current benchmarks primarily focus on detection accuracy, and only few of them evaluate spatial explainability. Moreover, no benchmark currently provides sufficiently rich semantic annotations to support the generation of human-understandable interpretations of anomalies. To address these limitations, we introduce SHAD (Scality High-dimensional Anomaly Detection benchmark), a fully annotated benchmark composed of 215 multivariate, high-dimensional time series collected from real-world distributed cloud storage systems operated by Scality. The proposed dataset includes rich contextual information, covering three families of anomalies with varying degrees of severity. As further contribution, we provide a foundation for future work by evaluating baseline methods for Detection, Explainability, and Interpretability, covering all stages of a TSAD pipeline. For Detection, we benchmark a wide range of existing anomaly detectors, testing their effectiveness on the proposed real-world dataset. Then, we consider explainability by evaluating whether measuring the contribution of each dimension in the generated anomaly score can provide accurate anomaly attributions. Finally, for interpretability, we investigate the effectiveness of frozen LLM baselines in localizing and interpreting anomalies.
Read the full abstract

All authors Roberto Stanzione, Jules Barbe, Magali Parrino, Jérémie Fourmann, Paul Boniol

Machine Learning

Persistent Depth Ordering amid Shifting Block-Bypass Responses in Language Model Pretraining

Layer interventions are widely used to probe the internal organization of language models, yet most analyses examine a single training checkpoint even though model representations and computations evolve throughout pretraining. This leaves open which depth-dependent intervention responses reflect persistent organization and which are transient consequences of training. We study this question using single-block identity bypass on fixed teacher-forced contexts across five released trajectories and 11 model-domain combinations. We find that block-bypass responses retain recognizable depth ordering while their magnitudes redistribute: nearby checkpoints preserve stronger rank correspondence than distant ones, and large changes concentrate at positions that recur across text samples and transfer across evaluation domains. Controlled experiments further show that changes in the natural bypass effect cannot be reduced to a single downstream sensitivity: in replicated Pythia runs, local missing-update magnitude grows while the pooled matched downstream response decreases, whereas OLMo-2 7B exhibits a different balance. These matched responses also depend on perturbation strength and direction, without identifying targeted compensation. Together, our results show that longitudinal layer sensitivity is structured but not static, and that single-checkpoint intervention responses should be interpreted in the context of how the underlying perturbation pathway evolves during training.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Looping Beyond Twice: A Scalable Recipe for Looped Mixture-of-Experts

Looped Transformers introduce recurrent depth as a new scaling axis for LLMs: by repeatedly applying shared Transformer blocks, they increase effective depth without increasing parameter count. However, the benefits of looping remain unclear for large MoE LLMs under FLOPs-matched comparisons. The main reason is that the gains from additional iterations diminish quickly and can even turn into degradation, so the extra FLOPs spent on looping yield little substantial improvement. Consequently, prior work typically settles on two loops. We identify two main obstacles to scaling looped MoE. First, looping inherits and amplifies the curse of depth: hidden-state variance grows with each iteration as residual updates accumulate, which destabilizes deep recurrence and causes representations to drift. Second, looped MoE suffers from expert selection collapse: routers repeatedly select the same experts across loops, so extra iterations add computation without adding computational diversity. Guided by this diagnosis, we propose LOOM, built on a single principle: each loop should contribute new computation while keeping the recurrent state stable. LOOM stabilizes recurrence by scaling residual updates to bound variance growth and re-injecting the input embedding at every loop, and diversifies it through per-loop routers that engage different experts and a Looping Residual that carries earlier outputs forward. Experiments across 100M-1.7B models show stable scaling to 9-12 loops. Under near-iso-FLOP, the 700M model performs best at 5 loops, reducing perplexity from 18.36 to 16.54 and improving average zero-shot accuracy from 38.84% to 39.53% over the non-looped baseline. Without FLOP matching, the 1.7B model trained on 60B tokens peaks at 9 loops, reducing perplexity from 9.62 to 7.77 and improving average zero-shot accuracy from 42.4% to 47.7%. Code is available https://github.com/hed-ucas/LOOM.
Read the full abstract

All authors Di He, Pengxiang Li, Da Chang, Qingyan Meng, Lu Yin, Shiwei Liu

Machine Learning

Parameter-Efficient Distributionally Robust Adaptation of Tabular Foundation Models under Subpopulation Shift

Despite strong mean accuracy, tabular foundation models (TFMs) can perform poorly on underrepresented groups under subpopulation shift, where group proportions change between training and deployment. We propose DR-TFM, a parameter-efficient distributionally robust adaptation framework that requires no true group annotations. DR-TFM adjusts attention to labeled context examples by fine-tuning an existing query scaling network or adding and training one, while keeping all other parameters fixed. We instantiate the framework with two robust objectives using estimated groups or source conditional distributions derived from training data. For TabPFN-3, adaptation updates only 0.016% of the pretrained model's parameters. Across five tabular benchmarks, DR-TFM achieves substantially higher average worst-group accuracy than pretrained TFMs and the compared robust baselines without true group annotations, while maintaining competitive mean group accuracy. DR-TFM also improves average worst-group accuracy on ACS Income and across four additional TFMs.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Classical Hardness of Learning Functions of Hamiltonians

Morohoshi, Nakayama, Manabe, and Mitarai proposed a physically motivated quantum machine learning problem in which the goal is to predict quantities of the form $\operatorname{Tr}[f(H)\rho]$ from classical descriptions of a Hamiltonian $H$ and a quantum state $\rho$, where $f$ is an unknown function. We call this problem Hamiltonian function learning in this paper. They constructed an efficient quantum learning algorithm under suitable conditions, while leaving a rigorous proof of average-case classical hardness open. In this paper, we rigorously prove the average-case classical hardness for two distribution-specific Hamiltonian function learning problems for $f_{\cos,\pi}(\lambda)=\cos(\pi\lambda)$ and $f_{\exp,\beta}(\lambda)=e^{-\beta\lambda}$ discussed in the paper of Morohoshi et al. under the assumption of the average-case hardness of factoring random RSA moduli. More specifically, we show that an efficient classical randomized learner under squared loss whose output hypotheses are evaluable in classical polynomial time for either problem would yield a classical randomized polynomial-time algorithm for factoring random RSA moduli.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Open Vocabulary Word Recognition From Transcribed Bangla Texts

An optical character recognition (OCR) can scan a paper and extract text using technology, making people's jobs easier. While various OCR systems are available in the software industry, finding a reliable equivalent solution for Bangla takes much work. When it comes to handwritten texts, the situation is much more unusual. Recognizing words from word images is the most critical stage in any OCR process. It is the second stage after segmenting words from text pictures. If this stage fails, the overall performance of the OCR will be poor, regardless of how well the other phases perform. This study aims to recognize words using deep learning in a handwritten Bangla word image. Three object detection models, SSD with MobileNetV2, Faster R-CNN with InceptionResNetV2, and an ensemble model of these two, have been used to train and test handwritten word images. A modified Non-Maximum Suppression has been introduced to enhance the effectiveness of the models' results. A customized dataset of 9841 handwritten Bangla word images has been compiled, featuring diverse handwriting styles from various individuals. All three models' performances have been checked against the test dataset, and the ensemble model has been the most impressive, with an F1-score of 92.61%. Also, at the word level, the ensemble model correctly recognizes 96.12% of the words to some extent. The system can be further improved by introducing a post-processing phase to correct errors generated by the system.
Read the full abstract

2610.01134 · 1 Oct · 6 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables. Accepted version of the paper published in the 2023 26th International Conference on Computer and Information Technology (ICCIT). Code: https://github.com/FaiasPromit/Open-Vocabulary-Word-Recognition-From-Transcribed-Bangla-Texts.git

Machine Learning

Does Scaling Reinforcement Learning Really Require More Training?

Scaling reasoning typically spends more compute on reinforcement learning (RL) or on inference. We show that a completed RL training history can yield policies stronger than the checkpoints visited by its optimizer. We call this policy-space scaling: expanding the deployable policy set accessible from a fixed RL history, without extending training or increasing per-query inference computation. We instantiate it with SURGE (Scaling Up RL Gradient-free via Eigenspace fusion). SURGE combines two checkpoints from the same RL run: a high-accuracy anchor and a competitive donor that generates shorter responses. It expresses both checkpoints as changes from their shared initialization, then spectrally decomposes the anchor's update to retain its dominant component and incorporate the donor's complementary component. With a fixed target for how much of the anchor update to retain, SURGE determines the block size from the weights without testing candidate policies. We evaluate two 1.5B mathematical-reasoning histories, DeepSeek and Nemotron, and one 7B coding history, OLMo. SURGE improves benchmark-average accuracy over both input checkpoints while using fewer reasoning tokens than the anchor. It reaches 54.17% on DeepSeek AIME24 against a measured native maximum of 50.83%, and 83.7% on OLMo HumanEval+ against 82.8%. These gains exceed the observed training curves. Geometric controls support the importance of RL-update structure beyond weight displacement or token reduction alone. Each constructed model runs as a single policy. Our findings identify stored RL history as a reusable scaling resource: the capability available from a training run need not end at its best checkpoint.
Read the full abstract

All authors Bangji Yang, Jiajun Fan, Hongbo Ma, Ruihan Guo, Ge Liu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Grounding Large Language Models in DSGE Simulators for Policy Generation and Forecasting

Large language models can produce economic policy responses that sound reasonable, but this does not show that their actions are consistent with economic dynamics. We test this by placing an instruction-tuned language model inside six Snowdrop-backed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) simulators. At each turn, the model observes the economy and a change in economic discourse, selects a bounded policy action, and receives the next simulated state and an economic reward. We implement a common Python interface for repeated rollouts, persistent shocks, state cloning, and rolling-horizon simulation. This setting creates a long-horizon credit-assignment problem. Policy effects may appear several quarters after an action is taken. PPO has a learned value function that can propagate delayed reward to earlier tokens through generalized advantage estimation. GRPO has no learned value function and instead assigns a group-relative advantage from complete rollout returns. It therefore cannot distinguish which earlier turn caused the outcome; if every rollout receives the same return, the normalized advantage is zero. We use PPO as the primary method and GRPO as a matched critic-free baseline. The experiments also test directional semantic signals, reward horizon, trajectory warm starts, cross-simulator transfer, and historically anchored pandemic and monetary-policy shocks. The objective is to judge policy actions by their simulated economic consequences rather than by plausible language alone.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Latent Information Sharing for Accelerating Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) is a communication-efficient distributed learning paradigm. However, client drift remains one of the most critical challenges, hindering the efficient training of a global model. In this study, we propose a novel latent information sharing scheme that directly mitigates data heterogeneity across clients. Our theoretical and empirical results show that sharing a small amount of hidden-layer activations significantly improves training efficiency while preserving convergence guarantees and data privacy. Furthermore, we compare our method with existing FL approaches designed to address client drift, including FedProx, SCAFFOLD, FedPVR, FedProto, and SplitFed, and demonstrate superior model accuracy under a fixed round budget without incurring excessive communication overhead. Overall, this work presents a promising new knowledge aggregation scheme and provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of activation sharing on federated optimization.
Read the full abstract

All authors Seungjun Lee, Ensieh Khazaei, Dimitrios Hatzinakos, Baturalp Buyukates, Sunwoo Lee

Machine Learning

How Much Can Language Models Gain from Test-Time Computation?

How much can test-time computation improve a language model, and at what cost? Test-time scaling is widely proposed as a substitute for larger models, but existing comparisons mostly evaluate one domain at a time and rarely charge selection to the budget. We introduce SELF-POT, a benchmark and evaluation framework that measures the test-time potential of a model across competition mathematics, competitive programming, and agentic workflows. SELF-POT separates candidate coverage from final accuracy on static tasks, tracks correctness transitions under revision, and measures protocol completion alongside task success in agentic environments. Under a unified budget rule, it compares Direct inference with parallel sampling and self-revision under fixed multiples of the Direct budget, and charges every model call, including selection and critique, in dollars. This design supports two kinds of comparison: the gain a model obtains from additional inference, and a lower-cost model with additional inference against a stronger model. Across five low-cost reasoning models on 350 sealed tasks, with Claude Opus 5.5 Direct as the reference, the returns depend on the domain, the selection rule, and failure handling. When we replay the retained programming candidate pools, public-example selection raises correct submissions from 376 to 453 of 500 scheduled cells while saving 12-49% of logical API cost across models, and simply retaining an available candidate when judging fails recovers 61 submissions at unchanged cost. On identical mathematics pools, judging with fallback yields 186 correct submissions versus 182 for voting, while voting saves 12-21% of logical API cost. These controlled replays show how selection and failure handling change the gains realized from the same generated candidates, and they quantify the marginal value of a model judge.
Read the full abstract

All authors Bangji Yang, Jingyuan Li, Jiajun Fan, Yi Evie Zhang, Ruihan Guo, Hongbo Ma, Neil He, Chumeng Liang, Qinglong Zheng, Zhanghan Ni, Ge Liu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO

MASkillBlender: Decentralized Whole-Body Coordination for Multi-Humanoid Loco-Manipulation via Skill Blending

Coordinated multi-humanoid loco-manipulation is promising yet challenging due to high-dimensional whole-body control, decentralized decision making, and scalability. While recent reinforcement learning methods have improved single-humanoid whole-body control, extending them to the multi-humanoid setting remains nontrivial and often requires substantial reward engineering or task-specific design. We propose MASkillBlender, a general multi-agent reinforcement learning framework to achieve decentralized multi-humanoid whole-body coordination. By learning a shared decentralized high-level policy over reusable pre-trained single-humanoid skills, MASkillBlender enables coordinated behaviors using only task-level rewards, without requiring task-specific motion references. To improve learning efficiency, we further introduce a permutation-based data augmentation strategy for homogeneous multi-humanoid systems, and theoretically show that the permuted samples preserve the policy-gradient direction of the original samples under the homogeneous Markov game formulation. We evaluate MASkillBlender on multiple multi-humanoid coordination tasks across two humanoid embodiments. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently achieves strong task performance and enables coordinated behaviors across different tasks and humanoid embodiments.
Read the full abstract

All authors Yifan Hu, Luhang Hong, Mingkang Long, Danning Wang, Chengfeng Jia, Rong Su, Junjie Fu, Guanghui Wen

Machine Learning

Dataset Identity, Not Novelty: The Source of an Inflated OOD Detection Gain

A post-hoc out-of-distribution (OOD) detector reads the activations of a trained classifier and returns a score. It fits that score on in-distribution data, and the benchmarks that evaluate it supply a second piece of OOD data for the fitting itself. Some detectors tune a constant on it. Others fit a direction in feature space or train a flexible combiner and report the number that it reaches as the gain that is still available. Every such fit is validated on held-out samples of the same OOD dataset. That check rules out memorizing individual images. It says nothing about a fit that has instead learned which dataset it is looking at, and a direction that recognizes one OOD dataset rather than novelty passes it perfectly. The detector that a practitioner installs meets OOD data from a source that nobody fitted it on, so the difference decides what the reported number is worth. We measure it by holding out the whole OOD dataset rather than a sample of it, and we call that gap the inflation. We read it across a range of combiners on ImageNet and CIFAR-100 backbones. Most of the gain that the usual protocol reports turns out to be dataset identity rather than novelty. The size of the fit does not move what survives, so the effect is not ordinary overfitting. The share depends instead on whether the input exposes class identity, and two controls that vary that property alone separate the inflation on every backbone of both benchmarks. A closed form accounts for the effect and computes it from the fitting rows, so a practitioner can tell which fits will inflate without running the hold-out protocol. One of these fits survives, namely the single constant that the field already picks on a designated validation dataset. Anything above it reports a gain that the hold-out protocol does not return, and on one benchmark what survives falls while what is reported climbs.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ME

Polylogarithmic Sparsity of Randomly Reweighted NPMLEs for Gaussian Mixtures

The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of a Gaussian location mixture maximizes the likelihood over the infinite-dimensional space of mixing distributions. The maximizing mixing distribution can be nonunique, and the classical bound on its number of atoms grows linearly with the sample size $n$. We show that a vanishingly small random perturbation of the likelihood yields exact polylogarithmic sparsity. The resulting randomly reweighted NPMLE maximizes a weighted likelihood whose independent weights, taken to be Gamma in our analysis, concentrate around one as $n$ grows. With high probability, it is unique, has $O\{(\log n/\log\log n)^d+\log n\}$ atoms in dimension $d$, nearly maximizes the ordinary likelihood, and estimates the mixture density at a Hellinger rate that is parametric up to logarithmic factors. This sparsity holds for the estimator itself, not for an approximation of it, and requires no support penalty. The proof rests on an effective-dimension principle for positive kernel mixtures: low-dimensional variation of the fitted values controls the support of every extreme point of the set of maximizers. Numerical illustrations verify that the reweighted NPMLE has Hellinger risk and support size comparable to those of the ordinary NPMLE.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

GLoC-EHR: Evidence-Cited Clinical Reasoning over Global Context and Local EHR Events

Structured electronic health records (EHRs) contain a patient's clinical trajectory as a sequence of clinical codes. Answering clinical questions from such records requires both the context of the whole trajectory and the specific events that support the answer. We introduce GLoC-EHR, a multimodal language model that reads a contextual encoding of the record through a fixed-size global memory of the trajectory and a local memory of selected events. The model learns to generate hospital-course summaries from the global memory and descriptions of masked concepts from the local memory, aligning both with clinical text. It is then trained to cite evidence before answering, through rationale fine-tuning followed by group relative policy optimization (GRPO) with rewards for correct answers and record-supported evidence. On three MIMIC-IV outcome tasks, GLoC-EHR attains the highest macro AUROC among the compared models when it answers directly, whereas zero-shot LLMs reading the serialized record fall far behind. With evidence-cited reasoning, it stays close to its direct multi-task counterpart in macro AUROC, and the evidence terms of the objective reduce unsupported evidence at a similar macro AUROC. The local memory adds distinct supported findings, particularly under strict matching, without a detectable change in macro AUROC. Without retraining, GLoC-EHR transfers to EHRSHOT on par with EHR-BERT and answers two unseen laboratory questions better than zero-shot prompting of its own backbone.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

Kernelized Activation Steering

Activation steering provides a simple, training-free mechanism for controlling attributes of generative models such as sentiment, style, and helpfulness. However, standard approaches such as Difference-in-Means apply a single input-independent steering vector across all activations, limiting expressivity and ignoring the local geometry of the activation space. We propose Kernelized Activation Steering (KAS), a unifying framework that lifts activation steering into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. KAS formulates steering as an optimization problem expressed purely via kernel evaluations, yielding an implicit, activation-dependent steering score without constructing explicit feature maps. Unlike DiM, KAS induces locally adaptive steering: each activation is modified according to its relative position with respect to source and target reference sets, producing a nonlinear steering field over the representation space. Importantly, DiM is recovered as a special case under a linear kernel, while richer kernels enable geometry-aware interventions. Across standard activation steering tasks, including jailbreaking LLMs and image style control, KAS outperforms or is on par with the existing methods.
Read the full abstract

All authors Laziz U. Abdullaev, Minh-Hieu Pham, Bach Do, Khoat Than, Tan M. Nguyen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Capturing In-Context Learning Dynamics with Task Operators

In-context learning (ICL) enables language models to perform new tasks from demonstrations without weight updates. However, every ICL inference requires processing the full set of examples, resulting in inefficient deployments, and how ICL works mechanistically is not fully understood. Prior work compresses ICL into fixed activation vectors extracted from specific layers or positions, but these input-independent interventions fail on complex tasks where the output depends on fine-grained interactions with the input. By analyzing the ICL forward pass, we show that each attention head's output is an affine transformation of its context-masked counterpart, and that the parameters of this transformation are empirically stable across samples for a given task. Building on this, we introduce Task Operator (TO), which replays this transformation as an analytically derived update to the attention output projection. Across lexical, algorithmic, and reasoning tasks, TO achieves the best overall performance among prior methods and substantially narrows the gap between zero-shot inference and ICL. We further show that the extracted knowledge concentrates in a task-specific sparse circuit across layers and positions, and that averaging operators from disjoint demonstration batches enables effective many-shot scaling without expanding the context window. Our code is available at https://github.com/gzxiong/task_operator.
Read the full abstract

All authors Guangzhi Xiong, Zhenghao He, Bohan Liu, Sanchit Sinha, Wenqian Ye, Aidong Zhang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Sentence Specificity Scores for Collaborative Technical Documentation: A Domain-Transfer Study

Collaboration depends on shared context, and technical documentation is one way that context persists across people and AI teammates. Specificity, the amount and exactness of detail expressed in language, shapes what information documentation captures and how precisely that information is communicated. This work audits sentence-specificity scoring artifacts on technical documentation and tests whether scores applied only after generation help choose among fixed LLM-generated revisions. Across Wikipedia and three technical-documentation corpora, the fixed general-domain predictor SpeciTeller and the pinned post-publication author-repository implementation of Ko et al.'s target-adapted predictor produce different corpus orders and same-sentence rank agreement from -0.066 to 0.510. Strict filtering and token-length adjustment change these patterns without reconciling them. In the Gemma set, SpeciTeller ranking raises direction-valid selection from 71.7% to 83.3% (+11.7 points; 95% source-case bootstrap interval +1.7 to +21.7); in the GPT-OSS-120B set, SpeciTeller ranking raises direction-valid selection from 51.7% to 56.7% (+5.0 points; 95% source-case bootstrap interval -6.7 to +16.7), and every primary single-score GPT-OSS-120B interval includes zero. These findings tie score interpretation and decision value to the predictor and candidate set.
Read the full abstract

Machine Learning

SLIM: Simplex-Lattice Interpolation Merging

Optimizing merging coefficients for large language models can require many costly benchmark evaluations. We propose Simplex-Lattice Interpolation Merging (SLIM), which constructs a quadratic surrogate of aggregate performance on the coefficient simplex using a classical mixture design. Evaluations of individual experts and equal-weight pairs determine the surrogate with the minimum number of measurements needed to identify a general quadratic on this domain. SLIM then optimizes the surrogate without further target-metric evaluations. Experiments on two model architectures demonstrate accurate prediction of unseen multi-expert mixtures and competitive merge performance under limited evaluation budgets. Matched-budget comparisons show that structured evaluation points improve prediction fidelity over random designs, including those using regularized fitting.
Read the full abstract