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Wednesday 30 September

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

ConflictGuide: AutoResearch Improves When Competing Behaviors Are Made Visible

When designing machine learning models, desirable properties are often in tension: improving one behavior can impair another, so task progress can depend on alleviating the conflict. LLM-based AutoResearch systems, which iteratively edit model code and retain edits based on scalar task-performance feedback, have largely ignored this trade-off. We find that scalar feedback supports broad exploration early in search, but it does not reveal how edits affect competing behaviors. In matched-budget experiments, introducing competing-behavior feedback as task gains diminish increases the share of proposals that improve both behaviors and sustains progress beyond scalar-only plateaus. Obtaining this feedback for a given model requires identifying its competing behaviors and designing probes to measure them. To make competing-behavior feedback actionable, we introduce ConflictGuide. Its reusable ConflictGuide-Skill combines a literature-grounded taxonomy with model-specific evidence to identify competing behaviors and specify probes for a code agent to implement as metrics. Evolution proceeds in two stages: Stage I explores with task feedback; Stage II uses probe feedback to steer proposals toward conflict alleviation and retains marginal-gain edits only when probes indicate sufficient alleviation. Across five diverse model families, ConflictGuide reduces task and conflict-related errors by up to 28% and 14%, respectively, relative to scalar-only AutoResearch, with gains extending to other code agents.
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All authors Binqian Xu, Qiran Zou, Xiangbo Shu, Dianbo Liu

Machine Learning

RoPE at the End of Its Rope? Theory, Diagnosis, and Mitigation of Long-Context Failures

Long-context failures of RoPE-based language models can arise from RoPE's intrinsic tradeoff between maintaining stable token preferences and distinguishing nearby positions. Determining which weakness to address, and how, requires a more precise characterization of RoPE's behavior in trained models across context lengths. We address a key limitation of prior theory by allowing unequal query-key scales across RoPE frequencies, which aligns well with practical empirical observations. Our theory makes both vulnerabilities measurable for individual heads and inputs, and quantifies how high-frequency components support positional sensitivity while potentially disrupting semantic stability. We also derive a theoretical context-length bound beyond which, under specified conditions, a fixed attention-score comparison cannot jointly avoid semantic reversal and positional insensitivity. Guided by our fresh theoretical insights, we introduce RoPE Profiler, a lightweight, plug-and-play diagnostic toolkit that augments existing evaluations with zero additional forward passes by reusing cached query and key activations. Reusing activations collected during evaluation, the toolkit incurs little overhead. It supplements standard benchmark scores with two diagnostic scores that reveal semantic and positional weaknesses and help users prioritize which aspect to address. Crucially, our evaluations across 49 long-context task settings reveal a distinct pattern where reasoning tasks predominantly suffer from semantic reversal, whereas retrieval tasks are primarily vulnerable to positional insensitivity. Guided by our theory and diagnostic profiles, targeted high-frequency rescaling achieves immediate gains without additional training, improving task accuracy by up to 20 percentage points on Qwen3-8B and 25 percentage points on Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math-ph

Cluster Attention Neural Operators for Solving Parametric Partial Differential Equations

Traditional simulations of parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) rely on repetitive computations for each parameter, which makes high-fidelity design impractical. Neural operators address this issue by learning solution operators, accelerating parameter-space mapping by orders of magnitude. Recent Transformer-based neural operators attempt to capture global dependencies, but often at the cost of quadratic attention complexity. Transolver resolves this problem by projecting physical states into a reduced slice space for attention computation. Although fast, this projection sacrifices fine spatial information. Moreover, by operating in this reduced space with shared weights across attention heads, it may constrain the model's flexibility, thereby limiting its capacity to capture complex phenomena. To address these issues, we propose the Cluster Attention Neural Operator (CANO), which reformulates attention via a novel cross-attention mechanism that dynamically clusters queries while preserving full-resolution keys and values. This avoids slice compression loss and removes weight-sharing limits. At the same time, the model remains fast without losing global interactions. Empirically, CANO achieves state-of-the-art performance across canonical PDE benchmarks, covering fluid and solid dynamics (e.g., Navier-Stokes, Airfoil, Plasticity), irregular unstructured geometries (e.g., Pipe Turbulence, Composites), and long-term temporal rollouts. Across solid deformation and turbulent flow benchmarks, CANO achieves lower errors than baselines and exhibits strong geometric adaptability and temporal consistency.
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All authors Ming Zhong, Antonio Colanera, Gianluigi Rozza, Zhenya Yan

Machine Learning

TRACE: Trajectory Selection for Parallel Scaling of Search Agents

Parallel search may generate a correct answer that final-answer voting fails to select. We formulate this consolidation stage as trajectory selection and introduce TRACE (Trajectory Ranking with Aggregated Cross-Rollout Evidence), a lightweight learned selector that ranks completed trajectories using the search evidence behind their answers. TRACE preserves individual query and evidence occurrences, connects rollouts through shared content or document identity, and propagates information across these relations. Each candidate answer then reads the updated states of its own trajectory, preserving retrieval provenance while incorporating evidence from related rollouts. Trained with answer-level supervision over frozen text embeddings, TRACE returns an existing answer without additional search or autoregressive aggregation. One selector per search setting transfers across rollout policies and agent backbones without agent-specific fine-tuning, improving over voting across six WebQA policies and six long-horizon dataset-backbone combinations at $K=16$. On Qwen2.5-14B Base/SFT WebQA pools, TRACE achieves 45.2/49.2% EM, compared with 43.9/48.0% for the strongest Qwen3-32B generative aggregators. On long-horizon FRAMES, GAIA, and BrowseComp, it reaches 78.6% average accuracy, exceeding majority voting by 3.1 percentage points. On Base WebQA pools, TRACE with only 8 rollouts comes within 0.4 points of majority voting over 64. TRACE also achieves at least $10\times$ higher processing throughput than SolAgg, SummAgg, and AggAgent across all seven WebQA benchmarks. These results show that reusing cross-rollout search evidence provides an effective and efficient alternative to heavyweight generative aggregation for parallel search. Code is available at https://github.com/Jaasssoooonnnnn/TRACE.
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Machine Learning

Patient-Centered Treatment Planning for Chronic Multimorbidity: A Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning Framework for Preference Modeling

Patient preference, defined as a patient's demonstrated willingness and capacity to adhere to clinical recommendations, is a primary determinant of therapeutic effect yet remains structurally absent from existing computational treatment planning models. We address this gap by presenting patient-centered factored-action hierarchical option-critic (FAHOC), a hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) framework that jointly learns high-level options corresponding to therapeutic strategies and factored intra-option policies that decompose the joint action space into disease- and intervention-specific subcomponents, while imposing a cooperation-aware action masking mechanism. This enables structured exploration, improved credit assignment across hierarchy levels, and more interpretable decision pathways, while enforcing patients' preferences. Formal guarantees establish that cooperative patients achieve higher optimal expected health outcomes than non-cooperative patients, and that the factored Q-function approximation error is provably bounded. The framework is evaluated using longitudinal data collected from approximately 50,000 comorbid hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus patients from five hospitals in the Southeast U.S. FAHOC achieves a quality-adjusted life year expectancy equivalent improvement of 0.669 (vs -0.133 observed clinician practice), correctly identifies cooperative patients in 95.9% of cases and never violates a patient's preference in held-out test, demonstrating that HRL with explicit preference constraints can support preference-consistent, clinically safe decision-making in multimorbidity management.
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All authors Nafiseh Payani, Soham Das, G. Anthony Wilson, Anahita Khojandi

Machine Learning

Do Better Goal Representations Improve Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning?

Goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) relies heavily on how target goals are represented to the policy. While recent methods encode goals via temporal distance, occupancy, or controllability, it remains unclear how much downstream performance actually depends on representation quality. We study this in offline GCRL by constructing an exact temporal-distance goal representation in deterministic mazes. We then systematically corrupt its geometric quality while keeping the downstream learner fixed. Across OGBench navigation tasks and two algorithms, large changes in goal-representation quality produce almost no change in performance. However, applying the same interventions to the agent's current state more than doubles success, revealing the state pathway as the true bottleneck. Building on this insight, we show that simple random Fourier positional encodings substantially improve performance on the hardest navigation tasks without map information or objective modifications. Overall, our findings suggest that in state-based offline navigation, improving how the agent's current state is represented matters far more than refining the goal representation. Code will be released soon.
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All authors Syed Nazmus Sakib, Abdul Monaf Chowdhury, Nafiul Haque, Shifat E Arman, Md Mehedi Hasan

Machine Learning

Shared Weights, Selected Computations: How Looped Transformers Route What Each Loop Does

Looped Transformers repeatedly apply the same set of Transformer layers, giving them a recurrent architecture for latent computation. Their strong performance on iterative reasoning and length-generalization tasks suggests an appealing explanation: recurrence may provide an inductive bias that lets the model reuse a learned algorithm across loops. However, weight sharing alone does not imply that every loop performs the same operation. This raises a basic question: is each loop actually repeating the same computation, and if not, what routes the shared parameters to different operations? We study this question using graph walks as a test case. In the model's native trajectories, decoded predictions can advance by different numbers of graph steps or remain at a reached target, showing that recurrent progress need not follow a fixed one-loop-one-step pattern. We then show that a frozen loop can be steered toward different transitions by modifying its entering hidden state: a learned linear layer $J$ selects the desired transition without changing the shared Transformer layers. To test how this steering works, we use activation patching and find that attention patterns can recover its effects and switch the selected transition. Across five matched pairs of graph models, changing intermediate supervision during backbone training changes which transitions $J$ can induce. This suggests that $J$ selects computations learned by the backbone rather than creating new algorithms. Together, these results show that the hidden state can control shared computation, with attention routing as a causal pathway.
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Machine Learning

Markovian Dynamics Enforcer: Feasibility Preserving Correction on Learned Dynamics Manifolds

Neural trajectory predictors can reach low prediction error while violating dynamics, actuator limits, or state constraints, especially when controls are unobserved and dynamics are partially specified. We introduce the Markovian Dynamics Enforcer (MaDE), a time-invariant post-hoc operator mapping state-transition proposals onto a learned feasible dynamics manifold, trained on feasible states without ground-truth controls. For each transition it infers a control and recomputes the state through a completion model of known physics plus a learned residual. It then corrects that control by gradient-based inequality reduction, so inequality satisfaction is best-effort within an iteration budget. Since every correction iterate re-enters the completion model, the returned state is dynamically consistent by construction relative to that model and the supplied previous-state anchor. MaDE drives dynamics residuals to essentially zero on fully specified simulated systems, and on an underspecified system leaves a smaller true-dynamics residual than the baselines. Designed to attach to arbitrary predictors, the frozen operator is evaluated downstream of recurrent, structured state-space, and transformer predictors. On recorded vehicle trajectories the one-step residual against a kinematic bicycle model is 0.0071 to 0.0072 for MaDE and 0.1703 to 0.1714 for raw predictors. MaDE raises average displacement error by a factor of 1.57 to 1.83.
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All authors Kevin Yu, Tao Guo, Constantinos Antoniou, Panagiotis Angeloudis

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

OPSRD: On-Policy Self-Role Distillation

Role prompting elicits specialized behavior from large language models through an expert identity, offering a lightweight way to guide reasoning on demanding tasks. However, evaluating or distilling complete role-prompted answers can miss useful next-token preferences when the sampled solution remains incorrect. Transferring these preferences also requires an objective that reaches alternatives the student rarely predicts. We introduce OPSRD, which uses a fixed expert role as privileged teaching context for on-policy self-distillation without reference solutions. A role-free student generates a trajectory, and a frozen instance of the same base model supplies role-conditioned distributions on its exact prefixes, exposing alternatives beyond the sampled continuation. Teacher-weighted forward KL targets alternatives the student underestimates, with clipping to limit individual vocabulary contributions. Supervision is restricted to the highest-entropy half of student positions, concentrating learning where predictions are uncertain. Experiments on three competition-math benchmarks with Qwen3-1.7B, 4B, and 8B show improvements over the base models without role prompts at inference. Forward KL achieves the highest macro-averaged accuracy among the three evaluated divergences at every scale. Code is available at https://github.com/zhansan114514/OPSRD.
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All authors Weijie Ren, Yanwen Zhang, Hao Li, Zhuolin Qi, Hengyi Zhang, Naibo Wang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

LLM Persona Unlearning

Pre-training equips large language models (LLMs) with a broad repertoire of behavioral patterns associated with roles, styles, values, and goals. Post-training teaches conditional enactment and makes a helpful Assistant the default, but it does not erase alternative modes from the weights; explicit prompts can therefore elicit personas that repeatedly shape judgment, language, and action. In open-weight settings, runtime controls can be removed, motivating persona unlearning: a weight-level edit that makes a designated persona difficult to elicit and enact on unseen contexts. We introduce PersonaUnlearnBench, a model-specific paired benchmark spanning six LLMs from three families and five personas, with aligned forget/retain sets, held-out instruction paraphrases, and four-axis evaluation. The benchmark shows that standard unlearning methods cannot reliably erase the target persona without sacrificing meaningful generation or general utility. We therefore propose PaCE, which compares target and desirable responses to the same questions to locate an internal behavior direction, then trains target-prompt states away from the target mode and toward the matched desirable response. Experiments show that PaCE consistently suppresses target personas with high response quality and useful counterpart behavior, at moderate utility cost. These results establish persona unlearning as a distinct behavior-level editing problem and a practical route toward persistent control of latent LLM response policies.
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All authors Kemou Li, Zhuan Shi, Qizhou Wang, Fengpeng Li, Negar Rostamzadeh, Golnoosh Farnadi, Jiantao Zhou

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

PassGPT+: Leveraging Linguistic Priors for Password Modeling

Passwords remain the dominant online authentication mechanism, and understanding how humans choose them is essential for defensive strength estimation and attack simulation alike. Recent learning-based approaches such as PassGAN and PassGPT have shown that deep generative models can learn password structure directly from leaked corpora. However, both train from random initialization on password data alone. The role of linguistic prior knowledge in password modeling, and what it reveals about how humans create secrets, remains largely underexplored. Here, we address this gap with PassGPT+, which adapts the linguistic prior of GPT-2 to password observations through character-aware tokenization. We also introduce PassDiffusion, the first absorbing-state discrete diffusion model for password generation, as a probe of whether non-autoregressive approaches are competitive. On the RockYou benchmark, PassGPT+ recovers 22.53% of held-out passwords at 108 guesses, a 16% relative gain over PassGPT, and retains 79% of this match rate when transferred without retraining to a disjoint 2020 leak dataset, demonstrating that linguistic priors capture persistent regularities of human password generation. PassDiffusion underperforms by two to three orders of magnitude, indicating that autoregressive modeling is substantially better matched than iterative denoising to the discrete, exact-match nature of password generation.
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Machine Learning

Algorithmic Recourse Under Competition

Algorithmic recourse provides individuals who have received undesirable outcomes from machine learning models with suggestions for minimum-cost improvements to achieve the desired outcome. A central assumption when computing recourse is that the decision rule remains fixed throughout the recourse implementation phase. We challenge this assumption in settings where individuals compete for limited resources. In such settings, widespread recourse implementation can change the acceptance threshold even when the scoring model that is used to evaluate individuals remains the same. This change in acceptance threshold can, in turn, invalidate the original recourse recommendations (i.e., following the recourse may not lead to the desired outcome). To address this problem, we introduce a framework called recourse under competition that jointly optimizes for recommendation recipients and the recommended score target they need to satisfy to balance the recourse cost and post-shift validity among initially rejected individuals. We develop an algorithm based on the Implicit Function Theorem and empirically analyze its performance. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that personalized score targets can achieve higher validity, albeit at a higher cost. In contrast, common score targets generally offer favorable cost-validity trade-offs for lower to medium validity values.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

GrammarRL: Effective Grammar-Constrained Decoding via Reinforcement Learning

Grammar-constrained generation guarantees syntactic validity, but can substantially degrade semantic quality when the model's preferred outputs are poorly aligned with the imposed grammar. This trade-off is particularly severe when the prompt is underspecified or the model has limited instruction-following ability. Beam search can partially mitigate these failures by exploring multiple valid sequences, but its computational cost grows with beam width, while sequence-level probability is only an imperfect proxy for semantic quality. We introduce GrammarRL, a label-free reinforcement learning method that adapts language models to grammar constraints without requiring annotated data. GrammarRL optimizes the model using two complementary self-supervised rewards derived from its own likelihoods: a direct reward, measuring how likely the constrained output is given the input, and a reverse reward, measuring how well the input can be reconstructed from the generated output. We optimize these rewards with a Reinforce Leave-One-Out (RLOO) objective over groups of grammar-constrained rollouts, augmented with the top-1 beam-search hypothesis and regularized towards a frozen base model. We evaluate GrammarRL on sign language gloss translation, hierarchical text classification, and named entity recognition using Llama models ranging from 1B to 8B parameters. GrammarRL consistently outperforms constrained greedy decoding, with an average improvement of 9.8 points and gains of up to 22.8 BLEU. It matches or outperforms beam search on two of the three tasks while preserving greedy-decoding inference cost. Ablations further show that the two rewards are complementary: either reward alone can underperform the untrained baseline, whereas their combination consistently improves upon it.
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All authors Gabriele Tuccio, Antonino Furnari, Aldo Gangemi, Misael Mongiovì

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Completion-Aware Cross-Fidelity Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Line Bus Holding

Exploratory reinforcement learning (RL) on an operating bus fleet is impractical,while policies trained only from historical data cannot acquire new experience. Hybrid Offline-and-Online (H2O) RL combines fixed target replay with simulator interaction, but the inexpensive online simulator can differ from the target in transition and event-duration dynamics. We study this cross-fidelity problem for multi-line bus holding and address a failure mode in which lower generalized passenger time coexists with incomplete passenger journeys.
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Machine Learning

Preemptive LLM Unlearning against Forbidden Capability Acquisition via Gradient Sealing

Open-weight LLMs are released not only as fixed products but also as substrates for downstream fine-tuning. This openness, however, creates legal and ethical risks because users may misuse fine-tuning to instill illicit knowledge or enable hostile operations. Model providers therefore need apre-release defense against such acquisition, motivating the problem of preemptive unlearning. Unlike retrospective unlearning, which removes capabilities already present in a fixed model, preemptive unlearning seeks to prevent their acquisition under unseen attack data and future fine-tuning procedures. Despite its practical importance, this setting remains largely unexplored, presents distinct challenges, and is therefore the central focus of our work. We first verify that existing retrospective methods provide insufficient pre-release protection. Even when forbidden capabilities are suppressed in current outputs, forbidden-domain data can still induce gradients through internal pathways, enabling later acquisition. Motivated by this finding, we propose a gradient-sealing principle that blocks these pathways by pushing relevant pre-activations into the negative region, where ReLU-family activations exhibit zero or near-zero derivatives. Experiments across multiple LLM families demonstrate our stronger resistance to downstream acquisition than retrospective baselines, validating gradient sealing as an effective mechanism for pre-release protection.
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All authors Kemou Li, Qizhou Wang, Yue Wang, Fengpeng Li, Zhuan Shi, Negar Rostamzadeh, Golnoosh Farnadi, Masashi Sugiyama, Jiantao Zhou

Machine Learning

Fork-dLLM: Avoiding the Flexibility Trap in Diffusion Language Models

Masked diffusion language models (dLLMs) have shown strong potential for faster inference through parallel token generation when combined with confidence-based samplers. However, recent work has shown that such methods can defer unmasking high-entropy fork positions at which multiple plausible continuations exist. This results in reduced generation diversity, as shown by worse pass@k scaling, and limits gains obtainable from RL post-training. To avoid this flexibility trap, prior work advocated for autoregressive (AR) sampling. Here, we show that discarding confidence-based sampling is unnecessary and, once inference cost is taken into account, wasteful. We first propose Fork-dLLM, a simple hybrid sampler that uses AR-style ordering only at uncertain fallback steps while retaining parallel generation otherwise. We then extend the same principle to post-training with ForkGRPO, which uses Fork-dLLM rollouts and applies the GRPO objective only at fallback steps, preserving exact policy-likelihood ratios while substantially reducing rollout and optimization cost. In our experiments, Fork-dLLM matches the strong pass@k scaling of AR sampling while being 2-3x more efficient, and ForkGRPO achieves downstream performance comparable to or better than AR-based GRPO baselines at a substantially lower training cost.
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Machine Learning

Dimension-Free Rank Lifting from Random Hyperplane Arrangements

We study the width required for a randomly initialized hidden layer of a neural network to achieve rank lifting. Namely, given a dataset $X \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times d}$ of $m$, $d$-dimensional input vectors separated by an angle of at least $\theta$, we consider the random feature matrix $\sigma(XR)$, where $R$ is standard Gaussian. For positively homogeneous nonpolynomial activations, which include sign, Heaviside, ReLU, and ReLU powers among others, we prove that $$n \gtrsim \frac{1}{\theta}\max\left\{m,\log\left(\frac{1}{\delta}\right)\right\}$$ neurons suffice for $\sigma(XR)$ to have full row rank $m$ with probability at least $1-\delta$. This dimension-free bound exponentially improves the previous general-dimensional guarantee for sign features (Drago et al., 2026) and is essentially tight. The proof shows that one random feature column escapes every proper subspace of $\mathbb{R}^m$ with probability $\Omega(\theta)$, using a coupling of nearby Gaussian directions and a local crossing of the induced hyperplane arrangement. We also study stable rank lifting, where the goal is to establish a quantitative analogue of exact rank lifting, i.e., a lower bound on the smallest eigenvalue of the empirical feature Gram matrix in high-probability. Our analysis unifies and generalizes stable rank guarantees for all $q$-homogeneous non-polynomial activations following prior work in Panigrahi et al. (2020) and Song (2026). In particular, we combine a diagonally dominant Taylor tail of the population kernel with truncation and matrix concentration, to show that for positively homogeneous nonpolynomial activations, stable rank lifting is achieved at width $$n \gtrsim C^q \frac{m}{\theta^{2q+1}} \log^{2q+\frac{1}{2}}\left(\frac{m}{\theta}\right) \log\left(\frac{m}{\delta}\right),$$ where $q$ is the degree of the activation and $C > 0$ is some universal constant.
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Machine Learning

Predicting Multi-View Rashomon Representation: Can We Learn Where Models Disagree?

Foundation models are increasingly adopted across a wide range of applications, often serving as core blocks within AI systems. Yet different foundation models may encode the same input from multiple different views, leading to substantial representation disagreement, which we term Rashomon Representation. Such disagreement often signals inputs that a given model encodes in a way inconsistent with other models, offering a valuable yet underexplored signal for input reliability estimation. While prior work has largely focused on measuring disagreement across multiple models with a representation set, we instead focus on predicting disagreement from a single representation. We hypothesize that this disagreement follows some consistent, input-dependent patterns rather than occurring at random. To test this, we quantify disagreement by comparing each sample's nearest neighbors across different models' representation spaces, then train a lightweight predictor that estimates disagreement from a single model's representation. At inference time, given a new input, the predictor uses that input's representation to tell whether it aligns with or diverges from those of other models. Extensive experiments across diverse foundation models and datasets show that representational disagreement is indeed input-dependent, predictable, and generalizable, enabling efficient reliability estimation of foundation models.
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All authors Mingyue Ma, Zongbo Han, Changqing Zhang, Guangyu Wang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD

SEAR: Spoofing Evidence-Grounded Audio Reasoning Benchmark for Audio Language Models

Audio language models (ALMs) are increasingly used for audio deepfake detection (ADD), yet existing benchmarks assess their verdicts or rationale plausibility without verifying the underlying acoustic evidence. To address this issue, we first introduce spoofing evidence-grounded audio reasoning (SEAR), a four-task AQA benchmark to evaluate ALM-based ADD through acoustic evidence identification and quantification, deepfake detection, and forensic rationale generation. We further propose a bona-fide-based acoustic evidence agent (BAEA), which equips a frozen ALM with controlled acoustic tools under fixed or adaptive evidence-acquisition policies. Experiments with six ALMs reveal a clear gap between plausible rationales and verifiable acoustic evidence reasoning, while BAEA-Fixed improves final verdicts and forensic rationales on both evaluation partitions. Controlled interventions further show that misleading evidence degrades both detection and grounding performance.
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All authors Rong Wan, Suliu Qin, Jiaxi Li, Wei Xie, Wenwu Wang, Xiaolong Han, Lu Yin, Xilu Wang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

BayesNDE: Bayesian Generative Modeling for Neural Density Estimation

Density estimation is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. In this work, we introduce BayesNDE, a neural density estimator based on Bayesian generative modeling. BayesNDE learns a Bayesian generative model and evaluates its density without requiring invertible networks or Jacobian-determinant computation. For each observation, it infers a sample-specific latent posterior to construct an adaptive proposal that focuses computation on regions contributing most to its density. Bridge sampling then combines samples from this proposal with separate posterior samples to estimate the density. Experiments on nonlinear and multimodal synthetic datasets show improved estimation of density values and better recovery of the density structure compared to the state-of-the-art neural density estimators. Applications to real-world datasets further demonstrate improved anomaly detection. Together, these results highlight BayesNDE as a flexible and effective neural density estimator, demonstrating how posterior inference can turn generative models into tools for density estimation. The code and tutorials are available at https://github.com/liuq-lab/BayesNDE.
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Machine Learning

Dynamic LoRA-Experts and Prototype-Ensemble Matching for Class-Incremental Learning

Class-Incremental Learning (CIL) aims to continuously learn new classes without forgetting previously acquired knowledge. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning with pre-trained models reduces parameter overhead but can suffer from cumulative interference and suboptimal alignment between inference samples and specialized modules. We propose Dynamic LoRA-Experts and Prototype-Ensemble Matching (DLEPEM), a two-stage rehearsal-free framework. DLEPEM allocates a task-specific LoRA-Expert for each incremental task to reduce cross-task interference, then combines frozen pre-trained-model prototypes with task-adaptive LoRA-Expert prototypes for reliable task-level discrimination. Experiments on standard CIL and Few-Shot CIL benchmarks demonstrate strong performance under the evaluated protocols.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Learning Steganography Is Easy, Learning Steganographic Reasoning Is Hard

Chain-of-thought monitoring as an approach for AI oversight and control is threatened by the possibility of steganographic reasoning, where LLMs conceal their reasoning inside innocuous-looking text. Two neighbouring capabilities, steganographic messaging (passing a concealed message) and encoded reasoning (reasoning in an illegible but unconcealed format), have already been shown to emerge under training pressures that occur in real pipelines, such as reinforcement learning against monitors. This suggests that steganographic reasoning too might arise as an unintended side effect of training. Here, we compare how easily models learn steganographic reasoning and these two neighbouring capabilities across three elicitation methods: reinforcement learning, in-context learning, and supervised fine-tuning (SFT). For most tasks, models learn steganographic reasoning only under SFT, while they learn steganographic messaging and encoded reasoning under all three elicitation methods. Even under SFT, steganographic reasoning requires at least twice as much training as messaging, and for several model-task combinations it is not learned at all. However, on a cover task that makes hiding information especially convenient, steganographic reasoning can be successfully learned under all three elicitation methods. Steganographic reasoning is thus much harder than steganographic messaging and encoded reasoning, and learning the latter two does not imply learning the former. Yet it lies within reach: an easy version is learned under every elicitation method, when the cover task is convenient for hiding information.
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Machine Learning

Fast Regularized Policy Mirror Descent with One-Step TD Updates

Policy mirror descent (PMD) enjoys fast convergence in regularized Markov decision processes (MDPs), but existing guarantees often rely on exact or increasingly accurate policy evaluation. We analyze PMD coupled with a persistent critic advanced by one temporal-difference (TD) update. For finite discounted MDPs, we establish global linear convergence in value for exact coordinate-wise Bellman updates, with any positive constant actor stepsize and arbitrary finite critic initialization. The proof combines a resolvent-based auxiliary distribution with a decaying Bellman-violation correction and a potential weighted by inverse coordinate weights. We then study stochastic TD-PMD with general strongly convex mirror maps under a single off-policy Markov trajectory. With suitably chosen constant stepsizes and a finite-batch TD update, the method achieves an expected value gap of $\epsilon$ after $\widetilde{O}(1/((1-\gamma)^5 \widetilde{\sigma}_b \epsilon))$ transitions. The stochastic analysis relies on the trajectory-wise Lipschitz continuity of the regularizer, derived from uniform bounds on vertex Bregman divergences, together with a visitation-weighted resolvent estimate for signed critic-error propagation that yields an inverse-linear dependence on behavior coverage $\widetilde{\sigma}_b$. In contrast to many prior guarantees for regularized policy optimization, our sample-complexity guarantee holds without trajectory resets, generative-model access, or nested policy-evaluation loops. Numerical results are consistent with the theoretical convergence analysis.
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All authors Qipei Chen, Wenye Li, Yule Sun, Ke Wei

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

Spherical Interpolation for Backward-Compatible Multimodal Representations

Contrastive vision-language models map visual and textual representations into a shared normalized embedding space, making cosine similarity the natural metric for cross-modal retrieval. A practical challenge arises during model upgrades: independently trained models generally produce incompatible representation spaces, so replacing a deployed model typically requires recomputing embeddings for the entire gallery, which is prohibitively expensive at scale. Orthogonal post-hoc alignment can partially mitigate this problem by mapping new-model queries into the old-model gallery space. However, because independently trained models can differ in fine-grained representation structure, the orthogonal alignment remains approximate, leaving a residual angular discrepancy between the old-model query and the aligned new-model query. We study whether interpolation along the spherical geodesic between these two normalized query representations can improve retrieval without re-indexing the gallery. We characterize when this path contains an interior query direction closer to an idealized retrieval-optimal direction than either endpoint, and connect this characterization to Recall@$K$ through a local margin-based certification result. Experiments across multiple benchmarks and model families show that post-alignment spherical interpolation improves over orthogonal alignment alone, recovering backward-compatibility in most evaluated settings. Consistent with our geometric characterization, per-query oracle analysis shows that retrieval-favorable interior points occur frequently in practice. Code is available at https://github.com/miccunifi/SLERP_backward_compatibility .
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Machine Learning

RainAtlas: A Multi-Continental Dataset for Precipitation Downscaling

Extreme rainfall events are increasing in intensity and frequency as climate change accelerates. While kilometer-scale precipitation forecasts are critical for supporting local decision-making, the limited availability of high-resolution precipitation observations hinders their accuracy, especially in under-resourced regions. Machine learning models are widely used to downscale precipitation data to km-scale, but their application to unseen geographies presents challenges. First, processing raw high-resolution precipitation datasets across regions requires significant engineering and domain expertise. Second, generalization across regions remains difficult. To help overcome these barriers, we release RainAtlas, a large-scale, ML-ready and multi-continental dataset for precipitation downscaling. Covering three continents, RainAtlas harmonizes heterogeneous hourly km-scale observations to a common 2-km grid. Each regional partition contains around 210,000 aligned low- and high-resolution precipitation pairs, respectively from ERA5 reanalysis and direct observations. We benchmark state-of-the-art ML-based downscaling models across RainAtlas using a wide range of metrics. Our evaluation reveals substantial variance in out-of-domain generalization depending on the training regions. This underscores the need for cross-regional, multi-source km-scale evaluation, establishing RainAtlas as a well-positioned benchmark for precipitation downscaling research.
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All authors Pierre-Louis Lemaire, Luca Schmidt, Wietze Suijker, Alex Hernandez-Garcia, David Rolnick

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Estimation of the Label-Noise Transition Matrix with Performance Guarantees via Selective Classification

Modern machine learning depends heavily on massive datasets, but obtaining high-quality annotations at scale is often expensive. As a result, learning from noisily-labeled data has become common, making accurate estimation of the label-noise transition matrix crucial. However, existing transition matrix estimators rely on the fragile estimation of class-posteriors and do not provide finite-sample performance guarantees. In this work, we propose a novel methodology to estimate the transition matrix based on one-sided selective classification. This approach bypasses class-posterior estimation, provides finite-sample performance guarantees, and leverages flexible learning methods for binary classification. Moreover, we introduce effective algorithms to implement the proposed methodology and provide their refined finite-sample performance bounds.
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All authors Xabier de Juan, Santiago Mazuelas, Yilun Zhu, Clayton Scott

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Synthetic Pre-pretraining Survives Scale, but Not as a Grammatical Prior

Pre-pretraining (PPT) on synthetic non-natural language data improves token efficiency during language model pre-training (PT). Prior work attributes this gain to a grammatical prior, i.e., a structural inductive bias learned during PPT that transfers to natural language grammar. However, PPT has only been tested on models of at most 1B parameters and PT budgets below 2B tokens on predominantly web text. It is unknown whether PPT is effective at larger scales and under more realistic PT data mixtures that combine diverse sources (e.g., code and math). We therefore present a comprehensive study on PPT spanning five PPT tasks, four PT data mixtures, four parameter scales (500M to 7B), and PT budgets of up to 100B tokens. Our results demonstrate that the downstream performance and token efficiency gains of PPT persist at scale, e.g., saving at least 21B PT tokens at the 3B scale. However, in contrast to prior work, we find no consistent evidence that these gains stem from a grammatical prior. Downstream performance does not consistently align with grammatical acceptability across model sizes. Instead, we find that downstream gains arise from PPT tasks that improve long-range retrieval. Finally, PPT performance gains are robust to how PT data mixtures are composed and diminish only when web text is absent. Overall, PPT is a low-cost addition to PT, and future PPT task design should target long-range retrieval rather than natural language grammar.
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All authors Atsuki Yamaguchi, Tatsuro Inaba, Joel Niklaus, Michal Štefánik, Aline Villavicencio, Nikolaos Aletras

Machine Learning

Should I stay or should I show? Learning to selectively disclose information

In many high-stakes settings, human decision-makers can acquire support information before making a decision. However, acquiring information is costly, and disclosure may fail to improve human decisions or may even impair them. We tackle this problem by studying selective disclosure, i.e., the problem of learning when to reveal support information to a human decision-maker under a budget constraint. We first show that the optimal policy is a threshold rule on the Value of Information (VoI), i.e., the expected reduction in human decision risk induced by disclosure. Since VoI is unknown in practice, we estimate the regime-specific human risks and bound the possible degradation of the resulting plug-in policy relative to lack of disclosure, as well as its regret relative to the optimal policy. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that selective disclosure outperforms both no disclosure and full disclosure, regardless of whether the support information is beneficial or harmful. Two user studies show that human-AI team performance can improve when disclosure is led by our learned policy and not human-selected, although this advantage varies across tasks. A counterfactual benchmark, which replaces participants' predictions with a machine-learning prediction when disclosure occurs, suggests that these differences might depend on lower adherence to advice when the information is automatically provided rather than self-requested.
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All authors Carlotta Giacchetta, Alessando Bogani, Cesare Barbera, Giovanni De Toni, Michele Caprio, Andrea Pugnana, Andrea Passerini

Machine Learning

Beyond Accuracy: Prefix-Invariant Realizations of Low-Precision Fast Matrix Multiplication

Fast matrix multiplication saves multiplications through exact cancellation, but rounding sums that mix token rows can leave contributions from later tokens in earlier language model outputs. This threatens prefix invariance, which multiple-choice likelihood scoring relies on: a scored likelihood must depend only on its allowed prefix. On Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct, two fast FP8 realizations repaired to ordinary-looking accuracy still change the answers chosen by likelihood on 5.83% and 10.00% of 240 OpenBookQA items when only the text after the allowed prefix is replaced with the bf16 model's own greedy continuation. Both row-local controls, the bf16 model and a deployed FP8 matrix multiplication kernel, change none. Accuracy thus does not certify prefix invariance, and the stability criteria we analyze cannot tell realizations apart: across all 512 sign variants of two-level Strassen they stay constant while teacher-forced perplexities span a 772.4$\times$ range on the same model. We therefore construct certified realizations of two-level Strassen on bounded integer codes that quantize token rows independently, then mix and cancel exactly before rescaling, using 49 block multiplications instead of 64. Our certificate guarantees bitwise equality to a prescribed row-local classical int8 operator at the same quantization specification, so every certified realization inherits its prefix invariance. Certification thus turns realization choice into a pure cost decision: which certified realization runs can no longer change a single scored likelihood.
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All authors Shuxiao Xie, Shuyang Xie, Yuan Cao, Dezhi Ran, Wei Yang, Tao Xie

Machine Learning

Backward-State Policy Is Part of the Learning Algorithm

Low-precision training rounds tensors that the backward pass reads again, often for several gradients; each use can read the forward's rounded value, the original, or a new random rounding. This backward-state policy looks like a memory and precision detail, settled by copy accuracy and final loss. We argue that it is part of the learning algorithm, and that neither check shows whether it is right. Copy accuracy does not decide the outcome: in three pairs of 390M runs with an emulated FP8 backward, training fails when attention's backward reuses the forward's rounded output and succeeds with a new rounding from the same distribution. Even the most accurate copy, the original itself, can be wrong by our reference: the gradient of the forward pass as it actually ran, with gradients passed through rounding unchanged. For example, a normalization output stored in low precision feeds two gradients: the gain's gradient needs the original, but the next layer's weight gradient needs the rounded value that layer multiplied. Final loss, the other check, does not rule out the error of reading the original for both: it persists in models trained with such a store, while planned loss comparisons stay within a margin fixed in advance. We therefore derive from this reference which value each use must read, or which substitute gives the same gradient on average with the forward held fixed, and check these per-use requirements on single operators, without training. In three tests using PyTorch and Transformer Engine, the requirements predicted beforehand whether reuse changes what the backward computes on average relative to an independent copy, and every prediction held. Backward-state policy is thus part of the learning algorithm: it should be specified and checked use by use, not settled by copy accuracy and final loss.
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All authors Shuxiao Xie, Shuyang Xie, Dezhi Ran, Wei Yang, Tao Xie