Machine Learning
A Machine Learning Framework for Fault Detection, Isolation, and Severity Prediction of Autonomous VTOL Aircraft
Ripon C. Sarker, Pedram H. Dabaghian, Raman Goyal et al. (+1 more)
Fault detection in autonomous VTOL aircraft is critical because even minor component degradations can rapidly destabilize multirotor vehicles operating in complex, safety-critical environments, motivating robust fault detection and estimation strategies capable of identifying early signs of rotor damage; however, real-flight fault detection remains challenging due to sensor noise, environmental disturbances, and the nonlinear aerodynamics of multirotor platforms. This study proposes a comprehensive machine-learning framework for rotor fault detection, isolation, and severity prediction using real flight data. A convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture is developed to learn spatio-temporal patterns from multivariate flight dynamics, enabling direct inference of both the faulted rotor and its damage level. The framework is first validated using simulated data generated by a data-generative model, and experimental validation is then performed on a hexacopter by introducing controlled blade-tip breakage. The trained model achieves rotor-wise fault classification accuracies above 99% and severity estimation accuracy of 96% within a 1% tolerance in experimental data, demonstrating strong generalization and supporting real-time health monitoring for autonomous VTOL systems.
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All authors Ripon C. Sarker, Pedram H. Dabaghian, Raman Goyal, Atanu Halder
Machine Learning
Inherited Heads: Audio language models track speakers with their text backbone's attention, and an attention-mass ranking retrieves a different set
Bojro Das
Asked to describe what one of six speakers in a recording talks about, audio
language models describe the right one on 6 to 16% of trials, below the 16.7% a guess would give. Adding a fixed bias to the
attention logits of a hundred heads, under a tenth of the model's and with no training, redirects the description to whichever speaker we choose, on 90.7% to 99.0% of trials. Those heads are largely not specific to audio. Rank the text-only
language model an audio model was built from, or a released model of the same family, on a written version of the task, take its top hundred heads, and carry them over unchanged: they redirect the audio model on 80.8% to 95.0% of trials, with nothing about audio entering the selection. The audio and text head sets share 66 to 74 of 100 where chance would give about 20, and the shared part alone reproduces almost all of the steering. What that does not show is that sharing is what makes the heads work: an equal-sized draw from the same discovered hundred does nearly as well, and none of our three models separates the two explanations. A second finding concerns how such heads are found. Ranking heads by how much
attention they place on the segment asked about, as an established score does, or by how much of their
attention moves with the question, as a per-head normalised variant does, gives top hundreds that share 69, 37 and 4 heads across our three models. In Ultravox, where they share 4, the established score's heads leave output the judge cannot place on any segment on 69.7% of trials, against 40.0% with no intervention and 1.0% for the normalised variant. That is one arm of six; on the other five the established score steers above a random draw.
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Machine Learning
CyFM: Cylindrical Optimal Transport for Few-Step Complex-Valued Flow Matching
Marcel Musiałek, Iga Wolanin, Damian Ryczko et al. (+2 more)
Complex-valued signals like MRI and audio spectrograms are typically modelled as flat two-channel Euclidean data. The inherited Euclidean metric $dA^2 + A^2 d\theta^2$ vanishes at the origin, leaving phase unpenalised exactly where the signal is weakest. We replace it with the decoupled product metric $dA^2 + d\theta^2$ on the cylindrical closure $[0, \infty) \times S^1$, which stays non-degenerate at $A = 0$. We measure what this substitution costs and buys. Exact analytical bridges across synthetic fields, fastMRI knee data, and LibriSpeech spectrograms show Cartesian paths induce a heavy-tailed angular velocity distribution (Pareto index $\approx 1$). Under independent coupling, 43%-49% of signal energy falls on paths turning faster than $\pi$ rad per unit time. Cylindrical paths never reach this speed. We formulate Cylindrical Flow Matching (CyFM) to strictly bound the angular regression target, coupling noise and data via exact minibatch Optimal Transport jointly over whole fields. This coupling reduces few-step generation error by 3%-60%. CyFM achieves lower generative error than the best Cartesian baseline at every step up to $k = 8$ on synthetic fields and
speech spectrograms, with all seeds separated. On knee MRI, the single-step advantage is 1.8x. At convergence ($k = 100$), the two geometries show no significant difference. Finally, a prior-only control exposes the cost of flat parametrisation: on synthetic fields, a single Cartesian Euler step performs worse than the unintegrated noise prior (0.376 vs. 0.150).
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All authors Marcel Musiałek, Iga Wolanin, Damian Ryczko, Anna Grelewska, Oleksii Furman
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
3D Gait-Based Autism Classification Using Attention-Enhanced Deep Learning with Cross-Fold Statistical Stability Analysis
Md Nadim Mahamood, Md Arif Shahriar, Md Parvej Sikder et al. (+4 more)
Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental condition whose early diagnosis remains challenging because conventional clinical assessments are often subjective, time-consuming, and require expert evaluation. Gait provides a promising non-invasive behavioral biomarker for auto- mated ASD screening; however, existing studies have primarily relied on single-
dataset evaluations, convolutional architectures, and descriptive summaries of cross-validation performance without formally assessing fold-to-fold stability. This study addresses these gaps with an
attention-enhanced
Transformer framework for ASD classification, evaluated on two structurally different 3D gait feature representations: precomputed statistical gait descriptors and raw biomechanical ground-reaction- force measurements. Under five-fold cross-validation, the proposed framework achieved 99.00% accuracy, 99.02% precision, 99.00% recall, 99.00% F1-score, and 99.00% specificity on the public Kinect-based
benchmark, exceeding the performance of the compared state-of-the-art methods. On the independent private force-plate
dataset, it achieved mean values of 95.00% accuracy, 93.81% precision, 96.67% recall, 95.13% F1-score, and 93.33% specificity.
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All authors Md Nadim Mahamood, Md Arif Shahriar, Md Parvej Sikder, Md Rasul Islam, Md Shafi Ud Doula, Md Ashraful Alam, Kamrul Hasan
Machine Learning
Signatures of Steerability in Activation Space of Language Models
Prajjwal Bhattarai and Tuka Alhanai
Steering
language models using a set of contrastive representations has been a canonical and computationally efficient method for controlling model behavior. Despite this success in controlling certain model behaviors, the effectiveness of activation steering varies markedly across concepts; the generalization properties of steering vectors are often considered a function of the
dataset used to construct them. We make this
dataset-dependence claim more rigorous and show that simple separation metrics strongly correlate with the downstream steerability of
language models across diverse settings, even after controlling for layers and
dataset effects. Beyond prediction, we provide evidence from a synthetic superposition experiment that separation metrics are strongly correlated with
alignment between the empirical and true feature direction. Our results suggest that simple separability statistics can serve as practical diagnostics for when steering vectors are likely to work.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.RO
When Faster VLA Deployment Changes Closed-Loop Behavior: Task Success-Latency Analysis of SmolVLA Across PyTorch and ONNX Variants
Rafiqul Islam
Vision-
language-action (VLA) deployment can reduce inference latency while changing closed-loop task behavior. We evaluate HuggingFaceVLA/smolvla_libero on an RTX 2060 (6 GB) in LIBERO Spatial and Object (MuJoCo 3.3.2, LeRobot 0.6.1, seed 42), comparing PyTorch+AMP with ONNX Runtime CUDA Execution Provider (CUDA EP). The main evaluation uses 100 episodes/suite; a paired rollout uses 300 episodes/suite. PyTorch+AMP reaches 70.0%/88.0% Spatial/Object success at 1181 ms p99. Requested-FP16 and requested-INT8 ONNX reduce tether-inspect p99 to 601 ms and 532 ms, while Spatial success falls to 41.0% and 40.0% and Object remains at 89.0%. A graph audit shows those artifacts are byte-identical FP32 graphs, so the requested-INT8 row is not operator-level INT8 quantization. A static
language-width ablation (16/24/32
tokens) yields Spatial success of 41.0%, 75.0%, and 71.0%; widths 24 and 32 recover much of the Spatial drop while Object success and uniform-bench latency stay approximately stable. Width-24 ONNX Spatial success is comparable to the PyTorch+AMP baseline at roughly half the latency (Wilson intervals overlap; two-proportion chi-squared p=0.53). Context width is an important contributor in this stack; it does not account for every PyTorch-vs-ONNX difference. Deployment evaluation should jointly report latency, artifact inspection, interface constraints, and closed-loop success. Code: https://github.com/rafiqul713/smolvla-libero-onnx.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD
A New Transformer-Based Approach for Audio-Based Kinship Verification and a New Uncontrolled Mandarin Kinship Speech Dataset
Qiyang Sun, Langqing Zhang, Yupei Li et al. (+1 more)
Kinship verification is a task involving determining whether two individuals share a first-order kin relation. To tackle this task, we propose CONVTRAP-TN, a new architecture for audio-based kinship verification, and conduct an ablation study on the proposed model. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to apply the successful
transformer architecture to the task of audio-based kinship verification. Furthermore, we also collect a custom
speech dataset, ARKIN, which accurately reflects everyday recording conditions. We do this because only a few
speech datasets with kinship labels currently exist, all of which either source extremely noisy in-the-wild data from the internet, or instruct speakers to record in specific environments. These settings fail to reflect real-world scenarios where users record on personal devices under unrestrained conditions. Additionally, we perform a series of preliminary baseline experiments on the collected
dataset, including speaker verification and recognition,
speech recognition, age estimation, and kinship verification, as well as cross-
dataset kinship verification experiments to show that existing methods are not robust across
datasets.
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All authors Qiyang Sun, Langqing Zhang, Yupei Li, Björn Schuller
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
One Size Does Not Fit All: Setting Inference Depth from the Questions a Deployment Actually Asks
Jerry Kaplan
A
transformer language model is trained to respond to any
prompt, but each deployment asks only a narrow range of questions: a support assistant sees delivery complaints, a coding tool sees Python. Every deployment nonetheless pays the same computation per
token. This paper measures how much of that cost is avoidable when the range of
prompts is known in advance. The mechanism examined is early exit: a small, trained component - called a readout - is attached to an intermediate layer and proposes a
token, and a confidence test decides whether to emit it or to run the remaining layers. The models are frozen, and the only supervision used is the model's own output on ordinary traffic. Three findings are reported. First, achievable savings depend strongly on the kind of traffic: at half depth on a 1.5-billion-parameter model, 96 percent of
tokens could be emitted early for arithmetic word problems and 8 percent for Chinese-
language explanations, at matched
token-level fidelity to the full model (a measure whose limits the third finding exposes). Second, of three ways a deployment might use knowledge of its traffic, only customizing the threshold for exiting early is worthwhile: calibrating it per deployment raised exit rates by up to 59 percentage points across three models, and by more than 10 points on most corpora tested. Third,
token-level fidelity - the standard evaluation measure in the early-exit literature - fails in domains where
tokens can be checked against ground truth: on arithmetic word problems, three models each answered sixty questions correctly when run in full, and between 10 and 28 correctly under early exit, in the configuration that scored highest on fidelity. The intended setting is small models on personal devices, where generation is limited by
memory bandwidth rather than computation.
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Machine Learning
T-SMART: Mechanism-Level Attribution for Tool-Augmented Time-Series Question Answering
Ivan Delgado, Himansi Gupta, Bishal Khatri et al. (+4 more)
Large
language models (LLMs) can struggle with time-series question answering (TS-QA), especially when numerical signals are serialized as text and require explicit computation. Tool-augmented approaches improve performance, but existing systems often intertwine
language reasoning, computation, and perception, making it difficult to determine which components drive the gains. We present T-SMART, a neurosymbolic framework that separates these roles: a frozen LLM interprets questions and selects operations, deterministic tools perform numerical computation, and structured perception is invoked only when needed. Controlled paired ablations show that deterministic computation provides the dominant benefit, improving accuracy by 31.7 percentage points over direct LLM
reasoning on serialized time series, while
language understanding and perception offer smaller complementary gains. These results indicate that tool-augmented TS-QA benefits primarily from reliable numerical execution rather than additional
language-model
reasoning and provide a controlled framework for analyzing component contributions in neurosymbolic time-series systems.
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All authors Ivan Delgado, Himansi Gupta, Bishal Khatri, Niharika Sapre, Lameta Shamoon, Onat Gungor, Tajana Rosing
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC
Riemannian ascent–descent for nonconvex nonconcave minimax landscapes: convergence to basin saddle points and applications to distributionally robust optimization
Rishabh Dixit, Pranav Upadrashta and Alex Cloninger
We study a class of distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems for the statistical risk problem, formulated as minimax problems over the product of a Euclidean space and a Riemannian
manifold. Because the resulting minimax landscape is nonconvex nonconcave in general, no globally convergent first order method is known to be available. We instead introduce the notion of a basin saddle point, a Nash
equilibrium defined locally on the Cartesian product of a $\delta$ basin around a connected component of the local minima critical set and a geodesic ball on the measure
manifold. We develop an abstract convergence framework for a Riemannian gradient ascent multistep descent iteration to a basin saddle point under a local Łojasiewicz type growth condition, with exponent $\beta \in (1,2]$, in the $\delta$ basin around connected components of the local minima critical sets. Under Lipschitz regularity of critical sets we establish linear convergence for $\beta = 2$ and
polynomial convergence for $\beta \in (1,2)$ to a basin saddle point, with explicit dependence on the sectional
curvature of the
manifold. We then instantiate this framework for the statistical risk DRO problem over Gaussian measures, where the ambiguity set is naturally modeled as the product of Euclidean space and the Bures Wasserstein
manifold of covariance
matrices, which we relax to a penalized DRO formulation. We derive nonasymptotic Hessian estimates for the resulting Lagrangian, establish existence and local uniqueness of its maximizer, and prove that an alternating Riemannian gradient scheme converges to a basin saddle point of the penalized DRO problem, recovering the linear and
polynomial rates of the abstract theory with all constants explicit in terms of data dimension, loss moments, and the reference covariance.
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Machine Learning
LIMBO: Lifelong Inference-Time Memory and Budget Optimization for LLM Agents
Siddharth Sharma, Nilesh Prasad Pandey, Onat Gungor et al. (+1 more)
As LLM
agents become integrated into increasingly complex workflows, they must continually acquire new capabilities while retaining competence on previously learned tasks. Lifelong
agents address this through experience replay, injecting past interactions into the
prompt to leverage prior experience during inference. However, replay is not free: every replayed trajectory competes with
retrieval,
reasoning, tool use, and verification for the same limited
prompt and compute budget, making effective resource allocation essential. Existing approaches allocate these resources using fixed replay policies, regardless of whether replay is beneficial for the current task. We identify this as inference-time
memory allocation, a distinct problem class for lifelong
agents, and introduce LIMBO: the first online framework to our knowledge that treats
memory as a controllable inference-time resource and jointly optimizes
memory strategy and inference budget for each incoming task. Unlike prior approaches that fix the replay policy or require model weights, teacher supervision, or offline retraining, LIMBO learns this allocation online in a single pass, explicitly balancing task performance and inference cost without modifying the underlying
agent. Across three LLM backbones on LifelongAgentBench, LIMBO achieves better cost-accuracy tradeoffs than state-of-the-art
memory-augmented baselines and nearly matches all strongest such baselines at up to ~83% lower inference cost (~53% on average). LIMBO adapts its policy across models and environments without retraining, demonstrating that effective allocation can be learned online rather than manually specified.
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All authors Siddharth Sharma, Nilesh Prasad Pandey, Onat Gungor, Tajana Rosing
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Exact Finite Attention Responses From RoPE Derivatives
Julie Huang, Maggie Chlon, Gregory Gutin et al. (+1 more)
We derive exact local responses for
attention interventions, allowing candidate edits to be scored from a cached baseline and one backward pass. The starting point is the RoPE derivative $\partial_p z(p) = A z(p)$: its integral gives the finite positional displacement, which we carry through the softmax without linearising either rotation or normalisation. The resulting predictions achieve 95.36–96.52% sign accuracy across 92,160 executed positional edits on 768 held-out
prompt sets, reducing answer-margin MAE by 73.6–82.5% against the positional Jacobian and by 36.2–50.9% against zero. For simultaneous key and value edits, the same divided-difference calculus isolates the interaction term $C_{KV} = \sum_j (p'_j - p_j)\,\varepsilon_j$, which is omitted by adding separate attributions. Retaining it reduces downstream margin MAE by more than a factor of nine in every setting of a 5,120-intervention sweep across two Qwen sizes, two tasks, and multiple layers; reductions against a quadratic interaction correction are 75.9–98.5%. Exactness concerns the edited
attention write; downstream predictions contract that response with a baseline gradient and are evaluated by native execution. The calculus also yields a KL certificate for local approximation error, an exact query-conditioned gradient-step representation whose
curvature identifies
attention-preserving query directions, and minimum-norm query control. Sparse evaluation supports candidate ranking and cache decisions under explicit local distortion criteria.
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All authors Julie Huang, Maggie Chlon, Gregory Gutin, Leon Chlon
Machine Learning
To do($x$) or not to do($x$): Medical Image Counterfactuals for Dataset Augmentation
Yasin Ibrahim, Robin J. Evans and Konstantinos Kamnitsas
Medical image analysis is often hindered by biased
datasets, which can lead to biased models and limited clinical applicability. A promising strategy for mitigating such biases is to augment training data with synthetic images. Counterfactual (CF) generation is one such strategy, though the term is used in two different senses: in some works, CFs are produced through causality-based interventions derived from structural causal models, whereas in others, they are produced by non-causal image edits or conventional conditional generative models, such as altering anatomy or adding pathologies. In this work, we study this distinction and evaluate its practical consequences for medical image augmentation. We compare three conditioning strategies: $\textit{Deterministic}$, which changes selected variables while holding the remaining variables fixed; $\textit{Undirected}$, which updates variables according to learned statistical associations without assigning causal directions; and $\textit{Causal}$, which propagates interventions along a directed causal graph. We analyse how these choices affect the resulting images, and explore when causally grounded methods improve
dataset augmentation or bring limited benefit. In particular, we assess downstream performance and
fairness, where
fairness refers to reduced sensitivity to
dataset biases across sensitive subgroups. Our experiments demonstrate that using a causal approach to synthetic training data generation can lead to tangible benefits, with these insights offering valuable guidance to machine learning practitioners for the effective design of data generation protocols.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
RA-CoA: Training-free Fashion Image Captioning via Retrieval-Augmented Chain-of-Attributes
Abhirama Subramanyam Penamakuri, Shreya Shukla and Anand Mishra
Fashion Image Captioning (FIC) plays a vital role in enhancing user experience and product search in e-commerce platforms. Unlike natural scene image captioning, FIC requires fine-grained visual
reasoning and knowledge of domain-specific terminology to capture subtle attributes such as neckline and closure types, graphic patterns, and dress silhouettes. Moreover, as fashion inventories evolve rapidly with new trends, styles, and frequently emerging vocabulary, developing training-free captioning solution becomes essential for scalability and real-world adaptability. Instruction-tuned
vision-
language models (VLMs) offer a promising solution to fashion image captioning dueto their strong zero-shot capabilities and natural
language fluency. However, these general-purpose models often lack attribute-level coverage and precision, and tend to hallucinate or misidentify fine-grained fashion details, making them less suitable for high-fidelity applications like product cataloging or personalized recommendations. To address this, we propose RA-CoA (
Retrieval-Augmented Chain-of-Attributes), a novel, training-free framework that disentangles fashion image captioning into two interpretable stages: (i)
retrieval of relevant attribute sets from a product knowledge base, and (ii) attribute-level
reasoning to generate the final caption. RA-CoA is a model-agnostic approach that works with frozen VLMs to improve fine-grained attribute precision in product captions without the need for fine-tuning. Extensive evaluations across diverse VLM model families under different prompting paradigms demonstrate that RA-CoA significantly improves caption quality, achieving an average gain of 26.3% METEOR score over zero-shot captioning. We make our code publicly available.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.LO
Neuron Activation-based Computation of Logical Explanations for Deep Neural Networks
Tomáš Kolárik, Faezeh Labbaf, Fabrizio Leopardi et al. (+3 more)
Formal explainability of classifying neural networks (NNs) is an active area of research, providing explanations with provable guarantees of the classification within continuous regions of the input feature space. However, the existing techniques are either limited to individual input features without guarantees on their relations or the provided solutions fail to scale to deep architectures. This paper addresses these issues by introducing a flexible symbolic framework for an efficient, guided computation of explanations of the NN behavior, parametrized by the activations of internal
neurons, and using logical engines such as SMT solvers. Unlike prior methods that rely on specialized NN verifiers, our method yields explanations that are not restricted in shape. Our
algorithm is implementable on top of a general-purpose logical solver, isolating the NN-specific encoding from the algorithmic framework. We experimented with a wide range of
benchmarks from the domains of image recognition and medicine, illustrating the advantages of the new method, particularly in computational efficiency. Notably, our approach enables logical explanation of deep networks not amenable to prior logic-based methods.
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All authors Tomáš Kolárik, Faezeh Labbaf, Fabrizio Leopardi, Grigory Fedyukovich, Michael Wand, Natasha Sharygina
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Bridging the Synthetic-to-Real Gap for Few-Shot Cryo-ET Classification
Siddhant Bharadwaj, Ashish Vashist, Rashi Singh et al. (+5 more)
Subtomogram classification in cryo-electron
tomography (cryo-ET) is a challenging problem due to the scarcity of labeled examples. While cryo-ET simulators can be adopted to generate unlimited synthetic data, the substantial domain gap between synthetic and real subtomograms hinders its practical utilization. In this work, we propose a novel synthetic-to-real adaptation framework with a learnable transformation module, bridging this gap at both the input and feature levels. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing transfer learning baselines in few-shot settings.
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All authors Siddhant Bharadwaj, Ashish Vashist, Rashi Singh, Pranav Vinodh, Nishanth Artham, Runmin Jiang, Xingjian Li, Min Xu
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AR
NeuroFlex: Lossless Element-Level ANN-SNN Co-Execution for Efficient Sparse Inference
Varun Manjunath, Pranav Ramesh and Gopalakrishnan Srinivasan
Sparse DNN accelerators specialize in ANN or SNN execution, leaving energy or latency on the table when workload characteristics vary within a layer. Hybrid accelerator designs that switch modes at layer or tile granularity suffer from low PE utilization since one core type idles whenever the other is active. NeuroFlex is the first accelerator to assign every output element independently to ANN or SNN execution mode with zero accuracy loss. We extend integer-exact ANN-SNN equivalence from layers to individual output elements, thereby enabling mode switching with no conversion error. An offline cost-guided scheduler scores each element by its marginal energy-delay trade-off and packs work across PEs, achieving 97-99% PE utilization compared to 40-45% for layer-wise hybrids. NeuroFlex reduces EDP by 57-67% over a strong ANN-only baseline and delivers up to 2.5x speedup over a dual-sparse SNN-only baseline. Our cost-guided scheduler improves throughput by 16-19% over random element assignment across
vision,
language, and
transformer workloads.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Just add noise: Debiasing tree-based variable importance in mixed data
Jiahe Li and Omar Melikechi
Variable importance scores from tree-based methods such as random forests favor continuous predictors over categorical ones. We present a theoretical analysis of this bias and propose a simple remedy: add a small amount of noise to each categorical predictor. The correction is demonstrated on a variety of simulated and real-world
datasets and combined with integrated path stability selection to perform variable selection with false discovery control for mixed data.
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Machine Learning
Multi-Modal Tumor Survival Prediction via Graph-Guided Mixture of Experts
H Mathavan and H Liu
Large
Language Models (LLMs) have displayed impressive capabilities in handling tasks that require few demonstration examples, making them effective few-shot learners. Despite their potential, LLMs face challenges when it comes to addressing complex real-world tasks that involve multiple modalities or
reasoning steps. For example, predicting cancer patients' survival period based on clinical data,
cell slides, and genomics poses significant logistical complexities. Although several approaches have been proposed to tackle these challenges, they often fall short in achieving promising performance due to their inability to consider all modalities simultaneously or account for missing modalities, variations in modalities, and the integration of multi-modal data, ultimately compromising their effectiveness. This thesis proposes a novel approach for multi-modal tumor survival prediction to address these limitations. Taking inspiration from recent advancements in LLMs, particularly Mixture of Experts (MoE)-based models, a graph-guided MoE framework is introduced. This framework utilizes a graph structure to manage the predictions effectively and combines multiple models to enhance predictive power. Rather than training a single foundation model for end-to-end survival prediction, the approach leverages a MOE-guided ensemble to manage model callings as tools automatically. By leveraging the strengths of existing models and guiding them through a MOE framework, the aim is to achieve better performance and more accurate predictions in complex real-world tasks. Experiments and analysis on the TCGA-LUAD
dataset show improved performance over the individual modal and vanilla ensemble models.
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Machine Learning
Stabilizing Performative Feedback Loops with Minimal Model Deployments
Gabriele Farina and Juan Carlos Perdomo
When algorithmic predictions inform people's decisions, the models we deploy are performative and actively shape the data we see. This feedback loop between
algorithms and their broader environments introduces a challenge in the mechanics of social prediction: If different predictive models induce different distributions, is it possible to efficiently learn a prediction rule that is optimal for the distribution that it induces? Formally, this solution concept is known as performative stability. A core challenge in learning a performatively stable predictor is that, unlike supervised learning where distributions are fixed, the learner must deploy different predictors and observe their induced distributions. The main contribution of our work is a new algorithmic procedure that, in the high-accuracy regime, finds a performatively stable model in nearly the minimum number of model deployments without making any assumptions regarding how predictions shape distributions. In particular, our procedure succeeds at finding a randomized performatively stable predictor using exponentially fewer model deployments than prior approaches. Our second main contribution is a structural result showing how this recent randomized notion of stability achieved by our
algorithm can be derandomized into a single predictor satisfying the prior deterministic notion if one is willing to assume that the loss is well-conditioned and that performative effects are weak, as in early work in this area. On a technical level, our results come from building on an underexplored technical connection between performative stability and expected variational inequalities.
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Machine Learning
Data-Efficient Agentic Graph Domain Adaptation via Reliability-Aware Prototype Learning
Yingxu Wang, Kunyu Zhang and Siyang Gao
Agentic learning systems are often required to adapt after deployment by observing new data and reusing prior knowledge under limited supervision or feedback. For graph-structured prediction, Graph Domain Adaptation (GDA) naturally instantiates this setting by transferring knowledge from labeled source graphs to unlabeled target graphs under distribution shifts. However, most GDA methods assume sufficient labeled source graphs, which becomes restrictive in data-efficient agentic settings where only limited source evidence can be retained. Under such constraints, source semantics become unreliable, leading to unstable source anchoring, uncertain target association, and fragile targetmarginal calibration. To address these challenges, we propose DEAG, a reliability-aware prototype learning framework for data-efficient agentic GDA. DEAG estimates class reliability from retained source support and
embedding compactness, and constructs stable reusable source anchors by blending empirical prototypes with classifier directions. Guided by these anchors, DEAG performs prototype-aware soft target association and aligns confidence-weighted target centers with source semantics. A source-prior regularizer further sharpens target predictions while keeping the target marginal consistent with retained source evidence. Experiments on graph
benchmarks with diverse domain shifts show that DEAG improves average adaptation performance over competitive GDA baselines under the same source-data budget.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DC
Real-World Deployment and Performance Characterisation of Fog-Based Deep Learning for Cold-Chain Temperature Prediction over LoRaWAN
Jeremiah Taguta, Jean Frederic Isingizwe Nturambirwe and Clement Nthambazale Nyirenda
Fresh fruits and vegetables (FFVs) are highly perishable, and cold-chain breaks contribute significantly to global food waste. While Machine Learning (ML) can enable proactive intervention, cloud-based inference faces challenges such as latency and data loss. Fog computing addresses these issues but has been tested only in simulation for FFV cold-chain temperature prediction. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper presents its first real-world deployment. A fog-deployed LSTM-GRU model predicted cold-room temperature using LoRaWAN sensor data collected from a South African apple cold-storage facility with induced cold-chain breaks. Running entirely on a Raspberry Pi 4 with no cloud dependency, the system generated conditional SHAP explanations only when a break is predicted. The deployed system predicts cold-room temperature with an MAE of 0.2{\deg}C at roughly 0.2 kWh per day ($\approx 0.7$ Wh per prediction). Predictions were delivered in under one second (555 ms), dominated by network and messaging rather than computation, with conditional explanations adding modest cost. SHAP consumes 28% more CPU but is well within the hardware's capacity. The model attributes its predictions primarily to temperature, humidity, and their interaction. Critically, the deployment surfaced what simulation cannot: a sensor-triggered single point of failure, alongside genuine resilience, autonomous recovery from infrastructure faults and continued operation through internet loss. These are the first published deployment
benchmarks for fog-based temperature prediction in FFV cold chains, establishing that explainable temperature
forecasting is feasible on resource-constrained edge hardware. Future work includes asynchronous sensor fusion, commercial cold chain deployment, alternative model architectures, and causal analysis.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from quant-ph
Conditional Quantum Flow Matching for Data-Scarce Physiological Signal Augmentation
Chi-Sheng Chen and Samuel Yen-Chi Chen
Generative augmentation is a standard remedy for label scarcity in physiological signal classification, but existing
quantum generative models start from uninformative noise, ignoring class structure that is already available. We propose Conditional
Quantum Flow Matching (CQFM): a single 306-parameter
circuit, conditioned on both flow time and class label, transports a compact class-conditional prior toward the target distribution.
Quantum flow matching as published is unconditional, so this is to our knowledge the first conditional one, and the first
EEG augmentation on a parameterized
quantum circuit. A nonnegative spectral
embedding removes the need for
tomography at readout. On BCI Competition IV-2a, starting from a prior rather than noise is worth $+5.1$ accuracy points over QuDDPM (9/9 subjects), though at that operating point a class-conditional Gaussian matches CQFM. Where the prior fails the transport earns its keep: given one transferred from other subjects it regains $+7.2$ TSTR points (9/9).
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SY
Diffusion-Based Multiple-Shooting Indirect Optimal Control for Fuel-Optimal Spacecraft Trajectory Generation
Saeid Tafazzol, Ehsan Taheri and Ryne Beeson
Diffusion-based generative models (DMs) have found applications in control problems, and in particular robotics, where the DMs enable exploration of possible control solutions. A critical shortcoming of these applications is that they have lacked optimality guarantees. This is a problem for their potential use in fuel-optimal spacecraft trajectories that are characterized with long time-horizons and bang-bang profiles. Alternatively, indirect optimal control methods ensure explicit satisfaction of necessary conditions, but are highly sensitive to the initial costate estimation needed to solve the resulting
Hamiltonian boundary-value problems (HBVPs). To alleviate this sensitivity and enlarge the convergence domain of HBVPs, advanced indirect methods have been developed that use smoothing approaches and continuation. We propose a
diffusion-based multiple shooting indirect control method that combines the exploration capability of DMs with indirect method to generate fuel-optimal spacecraft trajectories. We
benchmark our method against an advanced indirect method on a fuel-optimal Earth-Mars low-thrust transfer problem, showing higher convergence robustness than the advanced indirect method that is based on random costate initialization. Code and visualizations are available at https://saeidtafazzol.github.io/
Diffusion_Indirect_Control/.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SE
Introspective Uncertainty Estimation for LLM-Based Code Generation
Thomas Klassert
Large
Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for code generation but can produce fluent yet functionally incorrect outputs, which limits trust in their usage for practical software engineering workflows. This thesis investigates whether Introspective Uncertainty Estimation (IUE), based on internal hidden-state representations of LLMs, can reliably indicate correctness at the response and line levels for code generation tasks. The objective is to determine the extent to which hidden states encode information about functional code correctness and how this can be leveraged for practical risk assessment and fault localization. Methodologically, this thesis combines response-level evaluation on LiveCodeBench (LCB) and BigCodeBench (BCB) with an augmentation pipeline that derives
token- and line-level labels from incorrect programs. In this setup, it compares static and dynamic response-level features, evaluates generalization across tasks, programming domains, and
token positions, and studies line-level fault localization. The results show that hidden states contain a strong response-level correctness signal. Static single-
token probes perform best, while more elaborate dynamic strategies yield no consistent gains. While generalization across tasks, domains, and
token positions is feasible, setting-dependent degradation largely remains for real-world software projects. At a fine granularity, line-level prediction is substantially harder than response-level estimation. However, in a conditional localization setup with known-incorrect programs, Top-K point-of-failure ranking remains effective. Overall, the findings suggest that hidden states are a robust and informative resource for estimating functional code correctness, supporting a two-stage workflow that combines response-level risk screening with targeted line-level prioritization.
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Machine Learning
Tabby: An Open Pretraining Recipe for Time Series Foundation Models
Shifeng Xie, Bahaeddine Abdessalem, Zehao Xiao et al. (+9 more)
In this report, we release Tabby, a long context probabilistic time series foundation model, together with a complete and open recipe of how it was built. Tabby adopts an encoder-only patch
Transformer architecture and concentrates the contributions on the data and the training procedure. The pretraining corpus combines an extended real-world collection, GIFT-Eval-Pretrain+ and BLAST, with synthetic data from KernelSynth and CauKerV2, an online generator that composes temporal dynamics through randomly sampled structural causal models. Training couples a progressive convergence schedule, which yields reusable intermediate checkpoints, with a deep
quantile supervision objective for intermediate layers. The resulting 145M parameter backbone supports contexts of up to 8,192 observations and serves
forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection, while a
prompt-tuning module further improves in-distribution
forecasting performance with the pretrained weights frozen. Tabby achieves competitive zero-shot
forecasting performance on GIFT-Eval and the out-of-distribution TIME
benchmark, while the same pretrained backbone also supports classification on the UCR Archive and zero-shot anomaly detection on TSB-AD-U. We release training pipeline and model as open source at huawei-noah/trustworthyAI.
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All authors Shifeng Xie, Bahaeddine Abdessalem, Zehao Xiao, Youssef Attia El Hili, Ambroise Odonnat, Zhiwei Dong, Lei Zan, Themis Palpanas, Jianfeng Zhang, Lujia Pan, Keli Zhang, Malik Tiomoko
Machine Learning
Linear Ensemble Sampling with Smaller Ensembles
Taehyun Hwang and Min-hwan Oh
Ensemble sampling offers a practical approach to randomized exploration by maintaining a collection of models, but how small an ensemble can be while retaining strong regret guarantees remains unresolved. In particular, the existing guarantees use an ensemble size of $\Theta(d\log T)$, leaving a logarithmic gap in the horizon $T$ relative to the intrinsic $\Omega(d)$ ensemble-size barrier. We aim to narrow this gap by proposing an ensemble sampling
algorithm that refreshes the ensemble only when the regularized Gram
matrix changes substantially. This mechanism localizes the perturbation analysis to epochs with controlled Gram-
matrix drift and reduces the sufficient ensemble size to $\Theta(d\log d+d\log\log T)$, while preserving the state-of-the-art $\tilde O(d^{3/2}\sqrt T)$ regret for ensemble sampling with arbitrary bounded arm sets. We further show that, when the arm set is finite of cardinality $K$, the proposed
algorithm achieves the sharper regret bound $\tilde O(d\sqrt{T\log K})$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ensemble-sampling guarantee that simultaneously recovers both canonical regret scalings known for randomized linear bandit
algorithms: the $\tilde O(d^{3/2}\sqrt{T})$ rate for arbitrary bounded arm sets and the $\tilde O (d\sqrt{T\log K})$ rate for finite arm sets. The
algorithm also admits an anytime implementation without resetting past data, and experiments show that it remains competitive with baselines while using substantially smaller ensembles.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Thought without systematicity? Evaluating reasoning models on rule induction tasks
Simon Schug and Brenden M. Lake
A central tenet of human cognition is systematicity, the principle that understanding one concept is inherently tied to understanding close variations of that concept. Do
reasoning models robustly exhibit such systematicity? If so, we would expect consistent performance on structurally equivalent variants of the same task. Here, we extend established rule induction tasks from cognitive science to assess the systematicity of thought in current
reasoning models. Each task family has compositional structure that we use to create structurally equivalent task variations through task isomorphisms such as recombination and substitution. We find that despite being able to correctly solve a task, models often fail on structurally equivalent variants of the same task. These findings suggest that many model behaviors lack systematicity, rendering it difficult to robustly establish the cognitive abilities of
reasoning models beyond the particular contexts they were evaluated in.
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Machine Learning
Hardware-Aware Learned Representation Compression for Distributed In-Sensor Vision
Chengwei Zhou, Abu Masum, Xuming Chen et al. (+7 more)
In-sensor computing reduces the cost of transmitting high-resolution image data by performing early-stage processing near the sensor. However, the logic chip integrated with a CMOS image sensor (CIS) is tightly constrained in compute and
memory, limiting conventional deep neural network partitioning. We present OASIS, a distributed in-sensor
vision framework that uses a lightweight encoder to generate compact, task-relevant representations before off-chip transmission. The encoder is trained end-to-end using task,
entropy, and reconstruction objectives, while the decoder is used only during training. OASIS supports two complementary deployment paths. The first applies 4-bit quantization and Huffman coding while preserving the spatial structure required by classification and dense-prediction tasks. The second uses Sobol-based hyperdimensional computing (HDC) to transform the encoder latent into a fixed-dimensional binary hypervector for associative-
memory classification. For the SwinViT-based VWW model, mapping a $3\times3\times8$ latent to a 64-dimensional hypervector provides an additional $1.77\times$ communication reduction with less than one percentage point of accuracy loss relative to the 128-dimensional configuration, yielding an overall $18{,}816\times$ reduction compared with raw 8-bit image transmission. We implement the digital near-sensor pipeline on an AMD Xilinx Zynq UltraScale+ FPGA and characterize it using direct board-level power measurements and Vivado post-implementation analysis, together with
circuit-simulated CIS models and a 7-nm ASIC projection. Across visual wake-word classification, hand tracking, and eye tracking, OASIS reduces total system energy by approximately $2\times$-$4.5\times$ while maintaining competitive accuracy, demonstrating a practical hardware-
algorithm co-design path for communication-efficient in-sensor
vision.
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All authors Chengwei Zhou, Abu Masum, Xuming Chen, Mehran Moghadam, Sreetama Sarkar, Arnab Sanyal, Md Abdullah-Al Kaiser, M. Hassan Najafi, Sercan Aygun, Gourav Datta
Machine Learning
Optimal Transport for Efficient, Unsupervised Anomaly Detection on Industrial Data
Abigail Langbridge, Fearghal O'Donncha, James T Rayfield et al. (+1 more)
Effective anomaly detection frameworks are a central pillar of the Industry 4.0 paradigm. In this paper, we introduce an Optimal Transport (OT)-based framework for anomaly detection, designed to detect deviations from normal behaviour in time-series sensor data. The OT-based method requires minimal user input and adapts to real-time data without the need for labelled training data. Our method effectively addresses existing limitations related to data labelling, generalisability, and scalability, demonstrating resilience against short-term fluctuations, noise, and data gaps - common challenges in industrial environments. Additionally, our method provides counterfactual explanations improving the auditability of the approach when deployed in industrial settings. The proposed method learns the mapping between normal and observed operating conditions through a sliding reference window that adapts to the dynamicity of the data. We evaluate our approach on three industrial
datasets, from shipping, industrial HVAC systems, and publicly available
benchmark data. The method was highly effective in identifying anomalies and reducing false positives, outperforming traditional methods, while maintaining computational efficiency and ease of configuration.
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All authors Abigail Langbridge, Fearghal O'Donncha, James T Rayfield, Bradley Eck