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Friday 28 August

Machine Learning

Conditional Diffusion Models for Energy-Efficient Driving

Electrification of commercial delivery fleets is shifting fleet routing from distance- and time-based optimization toward energy-aware decision-making. Existing sequence models primarily provide deterministic point estimates or limited uncertainty summaries, which do not capture the range of plausible energy-consumption trajectories required for operational decision-making. In this work, we introduce a conditional diffusion framework that generates EV battery-current profiles conditioned on route features such as vehicle velocity and ambient temperature. The model combines a latent conditioning encoder with a temporal 1D U-Net denoising backbone that enables trip-related conditions to be mapped into a shared representation and guides the reverse diffusion process. We evaluate the framework on an open-access commercial EV telemetry dataset containing 12k trips from 9 vehicles. The proposed latent-conditioned diffusion model generates realistic cur- rent trajectories that capture both the dominant temporal envelope and sharp transient events. The model achieves a Wasserstein distance of 0.0029 between generated and measured current distributions below the real vs real reference distance of 0.0085 indicating that generated samples lie within the empirical variability of the test set. We further demonstrate that learned latent conditioning substantially improves performance over direct condition injection, reducing the Wasserstein distance by 89.1% and MAE by 52.8%. This work demonstrates a generative modeling framework for characterizing EV energy consumption under real-world operating conditions, providing an essential foundation for uncertainty-aware fleet planning in large-scale operational settings.
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All authors Hemanth Neelgund Ramesh, André Snoeck, Chyi-Fu Hong, Shijing Sun

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.IV

CheXtriev: Anatomy-Centered Representation for Case-Based Retrieval of Chest Radiographs

We present CheXtriev, a graph-based, anatomy-aware framework for chest radiograph retrieval. Unlike prior methods focussed on global features, our method leverages graph transformers to extract informative features from specific anatomical regions. Furthermore, it captures spatial context and the interplay between anatomical location and findings. This contextualization, grounded in evidence-based anatomy, results in a richer anatomy-aware representation and leads to more accurate, effective and efficient retrieval, particularly for less prevalent findings. CheXtriv outperforms state-of-the-art global and local approaches by 18% to 26% in retrieval accuracy and 11% to 23% in ranking quality. The code is available at https://github.com/cvit-mip/chextriev.
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Machine Learning

Learning to Difference: Adaptive Reversible Differencing (AdaRDiff) for Time Series Forecasting

Reliable long-horizon time series forecasting is an important yet difficult problem. Trends and seasonality introduce complex temporal structure that challenges learning-based forecasting models. Differencing, which subtracts nearby past values to remove such structure, is the classical remedy, but its reliance on hand-picked orders and periods has kept it largely absent from recent deep architectures. We propose \textbf{\underline{Ada}}ptive \textbf{\underline{R}}eversible \textbf{\underline{Diff}}erencing (AdaRDiff), a generalized differencing approach that uses learnable weights to simplify the series through weighted differencing with previous time instants. This yields stabilized residuals on which forecasting is performed, after which the removed components are restored autoregressively to reconstruct the forecast, capturing trend and seasonality jointly through a single operator. This reconstruction admits a closed-form convolutional expression, which parallelizes on GPU and yields up to $33.7\times$ speedup over the naive recurrence. We furthermore rely on a two-phase training schedule that separates temporal structure discovery from reconstruction learning, as suggested by a theoretical analysis of the gradient when using a linear forecasting model. AdaRDiff attains state-of-the-art forecast accuracy across eight benchmarks spanning electricity, weather, traffic, and energy, at negligible parameter cost. Furthermore, it is designed as a plug-and-play module: integrating AdaRDiff improves eight diverse backbones, from linear models to Transformers, in the large majority of cases, by up to $25.9\%$ with a linear backbone and $18.3\%$ with iTransformer.
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All authors Morad Laglil, Younes Hlal, Marouane El Hadari, Emilie Devijver, Eric Gaussier

Machine Learning

VICT: Verifier-Instrumented Credit Tracing for Long-Horizon LLM Agent Reinforcement Learning

Fine-grained credit assignment is a central challenge in reinforcement learning for long horizon LLM agents. Standard objectives often train from programmatically verifiable terminal rewards by broadcasting each sparse outcome to every action in a trajectory. Existing methods typically seek finer credit from the rollout side, constructing auxiliary trajectory signals or additional comparisons to estimate action importance. Although useful, these approaches still treat the verifier that judged success as a scalar reward, discarding its internal task structure. Our key insight is that many verifiable tasks already encode the relevant checks inside their terminal verifier. We propose VICT (VerifierInstrumented Credit Tracing), a training-time interface that exposes executable or evidence backed atoms and traces them back to actions through dependency-valid proof edges. VICT redistributes group-relative advantage only along those edges, shifting credit assignment from rollout-side inference to verifierside tracing. It preserves the original terminal reward, abstains when evidence is incomplete or ambiguous, and changes only the training-time advantage tensor, requiring no learned critic, process labels, branch rollouts, or inference-time verifier access. On ALFWorld and WebShop, VICT improves substantially over outcome-only training and achieves strong performance alongside recent fine-grained credit methods; ablations rule out dense atom rewards, final-commit credit, temporal proximity, and sparsity as sufficient explanations.
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All authors Pengcheng Li, Zhengyang Zhang, Dongxu Zhang, Sui Huang, Shaohua Ma

Machine Learning

Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting for Forecast Combination

Forecast combination is a reliable way to improve predictive performance when several forecasting models are available. Simple aggregation rules such as the mean, median, trimmed mean, inverse-loss weighting, and exponential weighting are often strong baselines, but their relative performance can vary across datasets, forecast horizons, deployment settings, and levels of disagreement among base forecasters. We develop Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting (GGEW), a probabilistic framework that treats forecasting models as experts and assigns ensemble weights using a Gibbs-style exponential transformation of normalized predictive loss. The framework extends this basic weighting rule through numerical stabilization, diversity-aware score corrections, and online hyperparameter adaptation. GGEW produces a family of related methods, including Stable Gibbs weighting, Directional Gibbs-NCL, and Symmetric Gibbs-NCL. These variants share one core algorithm and differ only in the score used inside the exponential weighting rule. For sequential deployment, we adopt a UCB-style bandit mechanism, called online Local-UCB, to adapt the learning rate, diversity strength, and Gibbs variant without evaluating the full hyperparameter grid at every prediction step. We evaluate GGEW on official M4 competition forecast submissions and external rolling-origin deployment experiments using Monash Traffic Hourly, Electricity Hourly, and Solar Weekly datasets. Results suggest that Gibbs-style adaptive weighting is a useful and competitive tool across several benchmark settings, although its relative performance varies across datasets, forecast horizons, deployment protocols, and forecast disagreement groups. The contribution is not a universal dominance claim, but a framework and empirical study motivating further investigation of when adaptive Gibbs-style forecast combination is useful.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.IV

Do Medical Vision Models Reason About Anatomy? Probing the Spatial Inductive Biases of Learned Visual Representations

Interpreting a CT scan means comparing structures on either side, judging how far apart organs sit, and knowing where each one belongs. Medical vision encoders are evaluated on diagnostic accuracy, or through assembled multimodal systems where a failure is hard to attribute, so it remains unclear whether their representations support any of this. We construct SPAR-Bench, eight probes over multi-organ abdominal CT that separate coordinate localization, relational reasoning, and spatial queries, and apply them to five architectural configurations and three medical foundation models, frozen and finetuned. Probes that ask for a comparison within the slice stay at chance, and neither pretraining scale, finetuning, nor architecture closes the gap. Probes that appear solved in domain fall to chance under zero-shot transfer, indicating that their accuracy reflects recall of canonical anatomy rather than computation over the image. Reading the same frozen features with a pooled head rather than the full set of tokens moves relational recovery from 0.7% to 67.8%, so pooled probing understates what a representation holds. Questions the encoders answer well are answered at chance by four open-weight MLLMs. Our results suggest these encoders carry a map of where organs usually lie, and little of the machinery for comparing structures within a particular patient. Code and data will be available at https://spar-bench.github.io.
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Machine Learning

Comparing Classical and Quantum Machine Learning for Regression in High Energy Physics Collision Data

The classification and regression of particle collision events constitute a persistent computational challenge in experimental high energy physics, where large volumes of simulated data must be processed with both speed and precision. This work carries out a systematic comparison of four classical machine learning architectures, support vector machines (SVM), artificial neural networks (ANN), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks against their quantum counterparts: quantum SVM (QSVM), quantum neural networks (QNN), quantum CNN (QCNN), and quantum LSTM (QLSTM). All models are trained on simulated proton-proton collision events with electron-positron and muon-antimuon final states from the CERN Open Data portal, using transverse-momentum components as input features and transverse-momentum magnitude as the regression target. Classical architectures, and in particular the CNN and LSTM, achieve marginally better quantitative performance under current hardware and dataset constraints. Quantum models, however, reach competitive accuracy with substantially fewer trainable parameters: the QCNN reproduces the performance of the deep classical CNN using only four qubits and a circuit of depth three, pointing to a genuine parameter-efficiency advantage on near-term quantum devices. A baseline analysis confirms that the regression problem is non-trivial for shallow polynomial fits, supporting the relevance of the architectural comparison. These results characterize the trade-offs between classical and quantum approaches under realistic, resource-constrained conditions and provide a benchmark for future studies on actual quantum hardware.
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All authors Tariq Mahmood, Zain ul Abidin, Itzel Luviano Soto, Alfredo Raya

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cond-mat.dis-nn

Landau theory of quenched criticality in linear in-context learning

In-context learning (ICL) allows a pretrained model to infer a new task from examples supplied in its prompt without updating its parameters. In linear models of ICL, the prediction error develops a double-descent singularity when the number of pretraining samples becomes comparable to the number of learnable parameters. We formulate this interpolation singularity as a critical phenomenon of a quenched disordered system. By comparing annealed and quenched descriptions of the same linear ICL model, we identify the connected sample-to-sample fluctuations of the learned parameters as the microscopic origin of the singular error. A Landau potential is constructed by integrating the cavity self-consistency equation for the renormalized ridge parameter $\xi$. The role of (magnetization) order parameter is played by $\xi$, while the bare ridge parameter $\lambda$ becomes its conjugate magnetic field. The normalized sample complexity $\tau$ acts as a temperature and the double-descent singularity occurs at the critical temperature $\tau_c =1$. The Landau susceptibility is precisely the quantity that diverges in the fluctuation contribution to the prediction error. The order parameter is closely related to the fraction of zero eigenvalues of the empirical relaxation matrix in the ridgeless limit, which define flat directions in the learning dynamics. The Landau theory is generically cubic in the order parameter with critical exponents $(\beta_{\rm cr},\delta_{\rm cr},\gamma_{\rm cr})=(1,2,1)$. In the large-context regime, there appears a pseudogap-like regime characterized by suppressed order parameter. Predictions of the Landau theory are independently confirmed from numerical solutions of the original learning problem with good quantitative agreement. Our results pave the way for solid statistical-physics understanding of the interpolation criticality in linear in-context learning.
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All authors Daesik Kim, Sumin Choi, Hyojae Jeon, Jung Hoon Han

Machine Learning

Explainable Uncertainty Estimation for Reliable Medical AI

Artificial intelligence has strong potential to support clinical decision-making, yet its adoption in healthcare remains limited due to a lack of trust. Uncertainty estimation can signal unreliable predictions, and explainable AI (XAI) can clarify how predictions are made but existing methods treat them separately, providing no feature-level insight into why a prediction is uncertain or which tests to prioritize to reduce it. To address this gap, we propose explainable uncertainty estimation, which unifies uncertainty estimation and XAI to both quantify uncertainty and explain feature-level contributions. We introduce the Expected Gradients Reconstruction Uncertainty Estimate (egRUE), which incorporates prediction explanations into its uncertainty computation and decomposes uncertainty into feature-wise contributions. We prove theoretical properties of egRUE and show through experiments that it improves reliability and interpretability compared to existing methods. A user study with medical experts further demonstrates that egRUE's explanations improve calibrated trust over uncertainty scores alone, increasing confidence in correct predictions and reducing confidence in incorrect ones. By combining prediction uncertainty with feature-level explanations, egRUE strengthens decision-making support in safety-critical healthcare settings, clarifying both when predictions may be unreliable and which features drive that uncertainty.
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All authors Li Rong Wang, Jamie Duell, Xinran Xu, Thomas C. Henderson, Yu Yue Hew, Pik Wan Erica Chiang, Xiao Wei Alstar Ang, Bingwen Eugene Fan, Xiuyi Fan

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cond-mat.stat-mech

Emergent aggregation from collective foraging

Collective behaviour in living systems is usually modelled as the outcome of a direct social drive: agents are rewarded, or hard-wired, to align with or approach their neighbours. Here we show that aggregation can instead emerge from an indirect objective. We let reinforcement learning foragers, initially performing a random walk, optimize their dynamics from a purely individual reward for finding replenishable targets, while perceiving only their conspecifics and never the targets themselves. As the visual range grows, the agents undergo a sharp crossover from an environment-tuned individual search to a scale-agnostic collective one, and this crossover coincides with the onset of spatial aggregation. Thus a collective phase arises as a by-product of optimal foraging, without any direct reward for grouping. A minimal analytical first-passage model reproduces the transition as a crossover between the two search strategies. Our results identify indirect, resource-driven reward as a generic route to emergent collective phenomena.
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All authors Gorka Muñoz-Gil, Andrea López-Incera, Vide Ramsten, Giovanni Volpe, Thomas Müller, Hans J. Briegel

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.PF

Characterization of Request and Token Energy Costs for LLM Inference Workloads on GPU Platforms

Large language model (LLM) inference serving is priced by tokens, but GPU energy is consumed over inference windows. This accounting mismatch makes token-normalized metrics incomplete, since average output-token energy can decrease even when total request energy increases. We characterize this behavior with a decomposed energy model: a fixed one-time prefill with a fixed generation setup cost, while each output-token generation step adds marginal step energy. We evaluate this LLM inference energy model on NVIDIA H100 and H200 GPUs across dense and mixture-of-experts (MoE) models, reporting both request energy and token energy as functions of model type (M), phase (P), batch size (B), context length (C), and output length (N). For Llama-3.2-1B on H200 at batch-16 and context-4K, increasing output length from 10 to 512 tokens reduces token energy from 7.46 to 0.72 J/token while total batched inference-window energy increases from 1.19 to 5.93 kJ. Batching also reduces token energy, but the gain is context-bounded: at 10 output tokens, the batch-16 to batch-1 gain falls from 6.31x at context-512 to 1.17x at context-4K. MoE models amplify this effect: sparse routing and fragmented expert execution increase fixed energy at low concurrency, while batching spreads that energy across more generated tokens and substantially narrows the dense-vs.-MoE token-energy gap. These results show that energy-aware serving should jointly optimize both request energy and token energy, rather than only reducing per-token energy cost.
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All authors Prabhu Vellaisamy, Vanessa Lam, Shawn Blanton, John Paul Shen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Twin Worlds: Equivariance-Based Abstention for Evidence-Grounded Reasoning

Knowledge-intensive reasoning requires Large Language Models (LLMs) to ground answers in provided evidence. When evidence is insufficient, it is desirable that models abstain rather than confidently generating unsupported answers. Existing abstention methods rely on uncertainty estimation or evidence sufficiency checks, but neither tests whether the reasoning process for generation, driven by the interaction of provided evidence and the model's internal memory parameters, is actually grounded in the evidence. A key contributing factor is that entity mentions in context activate memorised associations, causing models to generate plausible responses ungrounded in evidence. We propose Twin Worlds (TW), a framework for improving reliability in knowledge-intensive reasoning through equivariance-based abstention: unlike invariance, which requires outputs to remain unchanged, equivariance requires outputs to transform correspondingly under entity substitutions. A model grounded in the evidence should produce answers that shift consistently when entities are substituted while their relations are preserved. TW constructs multiple worlds via typed substitutions of the original input that preserve relational structure while reducing parametric priors, and uses equivariance violations as an abstention signal. Across four benchmarks and three model backbones, TW identifies when answers are not reliably grounded in the provided evidence and outperforms uncertainty- and sufficiency-based baselines.
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All authors Vy Nguyen, Ziqi Xu, Jeffrey Chan, Estrid He, Feng Xia, Renqiang Luo, Erik Cambria, Xiuzhen Zhang

Machine Learning

When Can Conditional Flow Matching Replace Pointwise Negative Log-Likelihood?

Flow matching enables likelihood-free training, yet alignment methods increasingly reuse conditional flow matching (CFM) losses as endpoint negative log-likelihoods (NLLs) and their old/new differences as log-likelihood ratios. We characterize when these substitutions are valid. For linear Gaussian paths, we exactly decompose endpoint NLL into entropy, a weighted CFM objective, an interior velocity–score residual, and a boundary residual. Thus CFM-only estimates and differences are exact only when the corresponding residuals cancel. At the off-policy population optimum, ordinary CFM is not generally a pointwise NLL estimator, whereas \(w_{\mathrm{sc}}(t)=(1-t)/t\) removes the interior residual; this positive result does not extend generally to training or on-policy alignment. On-policy log-ratios can remain biased even for identical endpoint laws or after surrogate optimization. Experiments across dimensions, distributions, and geometries support these conclusions and the mechanisms that make inexact ratios useful. **More broadly, the decomposition provides a theoretical basis for adapting likelihood-based LLM methods to flow matching, while distinguishing exact substitutions from controlled surrogates.**
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Machine Learning

Exact Risk Ratios for Weighted Data Selection in Linear Regression

How much data must a fixed learner retain? Hanneke, Moran, Shlimovich and Yehudayoff (COLT 2025) posed this question for linear regression with the minimum-norm empirical risk minimizer. A selector sees a finite dataset $D\subseteq R^d\times R$, keeps at most $n$ examples with nonnegative weights, and $F_w(d,n)$ is the worst-case ratio between the full-data loss of the trained predictor and the optimal loss. The value is $\infty$ for $n<d$, $d+1$ at $n=d$ and $1$ for $n\ge2d$, and the regime $d<n<2d$ was left open. We settle several cases. For every $d$ we prove $F_w(d,2d-1)=1+1/d$, which confirms a claim stated without proof in the original note. We also prove $F_w(3,4)=5/3$, $F_w(4,5)=2$ and $F_w(4,6)=3/2$, the three smallest cells not covered by that formula. For every intermediate budget $n=d+k$ we prove the lower bound $F_w(d,d+k)\ge1+\Gamma_{d,k}$, where $\Gamma_{d,k}$ is an explicit harmonic quantity over balanced partitions of $d$. This bound is the exact minimax value on the class of datasets whose whitened systems split into orthogonal circuit blocks. All proved values equal $1+\Gamma_{d,k}$, and we conjecture that this holds throughout the open regime. Our upper bounds combine a rigidity theorem for positive spanning configurations of loss gradients with normal forms of the small positive bases in $R^3$ and $R^4$. These forms are special cases of the classification of Cornaz, Kerleau and Royer; we also control all gradients outside the basis. A dimension-free extremal-basis argument converts sign-cone geometry into selections of $d+1$ points. Explicit counterexamples rule out several shorter routes. Every upper bound is constructive, with selection procedures polynomial in the number of points for fixed dimension. Every numerical claim about a specific instance is an exact rational or algebraic identity, recomputed in exact arithmetic in the supplementary material.
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Machine Learning

A Method for Layer Bit-Width Allocation in LLM Quantization via Performance Maximization Under a Quality-Degradation Constraint

This paper proposes a layer bit allocation method for Gemma-3-1B, formulating the problem as performance maximization (latency decrease) given a degradation budget constraint (allowable level of generation quality loss). This approach is different from time- and resource-consuming uniform layer quantization methods that are used in the literature (like GPTQ or AWQ) or allocation methods without proven performance-accelerating effect (like MixLLM or TorchAO). The layer sensitivity profile resulting from our prior work SA-PTQ is applied using the activation pass-through mode inside TensorRT-LLM. For each layer precision is determined individually in blocks, according to a grouping introduced in the prior step (5+5, 10+10, all26), differentiating the contribution of FFN, Attention, and lm_head to the overall speedup. The clock speed was measured for 13 W8A8 variants on an RTX 5090. We find that for FFN and lm_head the time cost of quantization/dequantization is compensated for by the use of integer arithmetic, while for short context lengths, the opposite holds true for Attention: an additional step of quantization slows execution down. We propose a manual implementation of SmoothQuant for TensorRT-LLM which was necessary due to export failures, unavailable for lm_head. The best solution found under joint consideration of all three criteria with minimal degradation was FFN 5+5 with lm_head, providing an 11.0% reduction in latency with negligible quality loss (98.90% Top-1 agreement, +0.85% perplexity degradation). With acceptable quality loss for FFN all26 + lm_head, a speedup up to 19.1% was found possible. We suggest further optimizations: fused attention kernels in INT8, KV-cache quantization, using FP8 instead of INT8 and partial Attention quantization analogous to FFN.
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Machine Learning

Is Monte Carlo Tree Search Just Every-Visit Monte Carlo Control?

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and every-visit Monte Carlo (MC) control are usually presented as different methods. MCTS is described in the language of search (selection, expansion, simulation, and backup), whereas MC control is described in the language of reinforcement learning (trajectory sampling, return estimation, action-value updating, and policy improvement). This note argues that, at the level of trajectory generation and action-value updating, the distinction is largely terminological. The tree policy and rollout policy can be viewed as the learned and not-yet-learned parts of a single evolving policy; expansion corresponds to first visit and initialization; and backup is the ordinary every-visit Monte Carlo update. Under this interpretation, the four stages of MCTS reduce to two basic operations: trajectory sampling under the current policy and every-visit Monte Carlo updating. In this sense, MCTS is simply every-visit Monte Carlo control expressed in the language and data structure of search. The purpose of this note is expository: to make this equivalence explicit and easier to recognize.
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Machine Learning

PhyMamba: Physics-Modulated Mamba for Robust Battery Health Prognostics

Battery health prognostics is a core function in battery management systems (BMSs), yet long-horizon health forecasting from BMS signals remains challenging due to operating-condition dependency and sensor noise. In this paper, we propose PhyMamba, a two-stage physics-modulated Mamba framework that integrates electrochemical aging into sequence modelling. PhyMamba does not require explicit identification of internal aging parameters, which often relies on intrusive measurements. In stage-1, a lightweight Mamba encoder first processes BMS signals and produces a latent representation that is transformed via an aging parameterization module, into physics-informed aging features. In stage-2, a customized Mamba forecasting backbone performs multi-cycle prediction, where physics is tightly integrated to regulate the model's internal temporal updates toward degradation-consistent evolution. Experiments on three public datasets under multiple forecast horizons show that PhyMamba achieves the best aggregated performance, with an overall mean error reduction of 31.8% compared with a diverse range of baselines. PhyMamba also offers an optimized accuracy-efficiency trade-off, which supports practical deployment for robust battery health prognostics.
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All authors Sara Sameer, Yunyi Zhao, Wei Zhang, Minggang Zeng, Wenqing Li, Man-Fai Ng, Yonggang Wen

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR

Not to Break, but to Attest: Adversarial Probes for Privacy-Preserving LLM Verification

Post-deployment changes to large language models can alter behavior while leaving routine outputs largely unchanged, creating a challenge for AI governance when model weights are proprietary. We present a privacy-preserving zk-SNARK-based audit framework that searches for probes designed in the spirit of adversarial examples to amplify logit drift between an approved model and a modified deployment. Our framework explores complementary probe families under different access models. Token-based probes operate in a black-box setting and require only the input interface, tokenizer, and vocabulary. Embedding-based probes require gray-box access to the embedding interface. Stress probes rely on additional interface capabilities but do not require full white-box access to model weights or architecture. This range allows probe selection to balance sensitivity, access requirements, and deployment cost. We evaluate probe constructions across LLM architectures, model-tampering scenarios representative of post-deployment attacks, and GPU platforms. Importantly, our experimental results demonstrate that token-based probes consistently deliver the strongest mean sensitivity across models and GPU platforms, although operating in a black-box setting. Our Groth16 zk-SNARK workflow remains practical as the probe set scales from 1 to 50, where proving time increases from 1.02 to 1.78 seconds, verification remains near 0.84 seconds, and proof size remains constant.
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Machine Learning

Temporal Memory-Aware Online Test-Time Adaptation on Dynamic Graphs

Test-time adaptation (TTA) on graphs aims to adapt a graph neural network (GNN) that is well-trained on the training graph to the test graph, which involves potential distribution shifts that may harm model generalization and test-time inference. While recent efforts have investigated TTA on static graphs, there is still a research gap on dynamic graphs learned with dynamic GNN (DGNN) models, where both structural connectivity and node semantics evolve continuously over time. This makes adapting a DGNN model for reliable test-time performance substantially challenging. To fill this gap, in this work, we propose a novel framework of temporal memory-aware Online Test-Time Adaptation on Dynamic Graphs, named DGOTTA, to effectively adapt well-trained DGNNs during test time. Specifically, the proposed DGOTTA contains three modules: (1) temporal-aware augmentation, to extend the diversity of test dynamic graphs for addressing complex temporal and spatial shifts; (2) memory-aware model prediction, to alleviate catastrophic forgetting; (3) consistency-guided online adaptation, to enforce temporal alignment and memory smoothness. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets and four DGNN backbones demonstrate that DGOTTA significantly improves generalization under diverse distribution shifts and multiple model architectures.
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All authors Bo Li, Xin Zheng, Ming Jin, Can Wang, Shirui Pan

Machine Learning

TI$^2$PS: A Topology-Informed Inverse Design Framework for Stochastic Multicellular Pattern Formation

This study proposes a novel framework to estimate parameters for reproducing target multicellular patterns using an agent-based model (ABM). Two major challenges in multicellular ABMs are estimating cell-level parameters (agent-specific variables) and quantitatively evaluating the topological characteristics of multicellular arrangements under stochastic cell proliferation and death. To address these challenges, we integrate two approaches: Betti vectors and inverse surrogate modeling. The Betti vectors obtained through topological data analysis can consistently represent features of a wide range of multicellular spatial configurations. The inverse surrogate modeling enables direct inference of the corresponding ABM parameters from the target patterns. We validated the proposed framework using zebrafish pigment pattern formation, a representative model of pattern formation driven by multicellular interactions. The results demonstrate that our framework successfully estimates ABM parameters and outperforms conventional methods such as PointNet++. Notably, the proposed method, which used only 10% of the training data, outperformed PointNet++, which used 100% of the data, across all evaluation metrics.
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All authors Kenji Komiya, Andrew Kailiang Jin, Ryo Nishikimi, Kunio Kashino

Machine Learning

TACIT-Switch: Cost-Aware Model Escalation for LLM Agents from Censored Supervision

Agents with smaller language-model backbones are less expensive but can drift into persistent failure modes, whereas those with larger backbones are generally more reliable but more costly. This reliability-cost trade-off motivates routing methods that decide when to invoke an agent with a larger backbone: before execution, after a fixed trajectory prefix, or locally at individual steps. Our method, TACIT-SWITCH, learns permanent handoff policies from accumulated trajectory evidence and Teacher-Annotated Censored Intervention Times (TACIT). It represents each annotation as an interval-censored observation on a cumulative-risk scale. The resulting mixture-cure threshold model estimates the probability that the paired Strong rollout succeeds and, conditional on success, the handoff threshold; no teacher is required at deployment. In a mechanism-based multi-step simulation, TACIT-SWITCH improves success by 7.4-11.1 percentage points over task-level, step-level, and fixed-prefix routing baselines at comparable cost. Within that controlled simulation, ablations show that task features and cumulative trajectory risk provide complementary information. With operating points selected on development data, TACIT-SWITCH achieves the highest held-out success among learned policies on both ALFWorld (48.5% with 4B Cheap; 45.5% with 9B Cheap) and DABench (73.1%).
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

OpenStamp: A Watermark for Open-Source Language Models

With the growing prevalence of large language model (LLM) generated content, watermarking is considered a promising approach for attributing text to LLMs and distinguishing it from human-written content. A prominent class of techniques embeds subtle but detectable signals in generated text by modifying token sampling probabilities. However, such methods are unsuitable for open-source models, where users have white-box access and can easily disable watermarking during inference. In this work, we introduce OpenStamp, a watermarking technique that encodes the watermarking logic directly into the model weights by modifying only the final projection, or unembedding, layer. Through experiments across two models, we show that OpenStamp achieves superior detection performance, with minimal degradation in model capabilities compared to prior methods. The implanted watermark is explicitly designed, and empirically confirmed, to be more robust to paraphrasing attacks and harder to scrub off through post-hoc fine-tuning than prior open-source watermarks. To enable developers to watermark their models, we release our code alongside watermarked versions of 4 popular open-source models.
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Machine Learning

There and Back Again: Bidirectional Diffusion Bridges for Multimodality Translation

Multimodality translation (e.g., text-to-image) is a core generative AI task. However, existing approaches (1) follow generative paths that do not directly represent the source modality, limiting the flexibility of some sampling algorithms; and (2) are unidirectional, preventing inversion (e.g., image-to-text). We propose BIT: Bidirectional Image-Text Diffusion Bridges. In contrast to previous approaches, BIT starts directly from text and interpolates into images, providing (1) a source-aware generative path that enables diverse and flexible sampling algorithms; and (2) an endpoint-conditioned process that can be traversed from image to text, providing a unified, bidirectional generative framework. BIT is derived through stochastic calculus, yielding SDE forms amenable to simulation and tractable loss functions that scale to high dimensions. Our experiments show that BIT is competitive with denoising-diffusion and deterministic-flow baselines, and outperforms them on several vision–language and natural-science evaluations.
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All authors Gabe Guo, Elon Litman, Thanawat Sornwanee, Jose Blanchet, Stefano Ermon

Machine Learning

Beyond Pairwise Graphs in Science: Hypergraph Adaptive Wavelet Operators for Parametric PDEs

Physical systems are often modeled by solution operators that map input fields, parameters, geometries, or past states to steady or future physical states. Learning these maps is difficult, especially for time-dependent systems that must assimilate history and remain stable under autoregressive rollout. Many neural operators work best on regular, structured grids, while realistic simulations often require unstructured meshes or point clouds to resolve complex geometries; in such settings, grid-centric representations can lose accuracy. Graph neural operators handle these domains through message passing or spectral graph filtering, but pairwise edges do not directly capture group-wise couplings among mesh cells, local neighborhoods, or conservation volumes. We introduce the Hypergraph Adaptive waveLet Operator (HALO), which lifts the domain to a hypergraph and learns in its spectral wavelet domain. HALO avoids explicit hypergraph-Laplacian eigendecomposition through Chebyshev polynomial wavelet filters, giving localized spectral kernels at linear sparse-matrix cost. Its trainable dyadic wavelet scales are regularized toward tight-frame coverage, allowing the frequency response to adapt to each PDE while encouraging stable multi-scale spectral coverage. Across 2D and 3D benchmarks on structured and unstructured discretizations, HALO achieves best or near-best accuracy among frequency-, transformer-, DeepONet-, state-space-, and graph-based baselines and sustains stable multi-step rollouts. The same model scales to industrial aerodynamic geometries: on meshes of a few hundred thousand points it is on par with, or better than, the strongest fixed-discretization transformers, while remaining resolution-equivariant.
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Machine Learning

SOMTab: Set-Order Mamba for Efficient Tabular In-Context Learning

Tabular foundation models based on in-context learning have recently emerged as strong alternatives to task-specific model fitting. However, the current performance frontier remains dominated by attention-heavy architectures, where attention is used throughout the modeling pipeline. This raises a natural question: is attention necessary at every stage of tabular in-context learning? We introduce SOMTab, a Set-Order Mamba architecture for efficient tabular in-context learning. SOMTab separates representation construction from query-conditioned retrieval. For row and column representations, it maps unordered table tokens into stable latent slots and applies Mamba-based state-space mixing to construct compact representations. For final prediction, it retains attention-based in-context learning to preserve query-conditioned retrieval from labeled context examples. We further introduce DCH-TailMix, a synthetic prior that combines degree-corrected graph heterogeneity with mixed heavy-tailed regimes to diversify synthetic dependency structures. Across tabular benchmarks, SOMTab approaches the performance of strong Transformer-based tabular foundation models while achieving faster inference and lower GPU memory usage, yielding a favorable efficiency–accuracy trade-off.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

What Do Interaction Representations Actually Measure? Pre-Event Separability in Weakly-Supervised Violence Detection

Articulated human pose provides detailed body-configuration information beyond coarse spatial relationships, but whether this detail yields greater discriminative information when the downstream pipeline is held fixed remains unclear. We examine this through early violence detection. Holding the tracker, temporal head, supervision, folds, and evaluation fixed, we compare five interaction representations spanning coarse bounding-box geometry, a matched handcrafted pose analogue, enriched pose descriptors, and a matched-capacity encoder learned from raw joints, under video-level evaluation with cluster-bootstrap intervals. No pose-based representation outperforms coarse geometry, though with fifteen anomalous videos this subset cannot rule out small effects. Extending the pipeline to frozen visual encoders, and repeating the comparison on XD-Violence (137 anomalous videos, nine times our UCF-Crime sample), person-crop appearance and whole-frame context both exceed geometry by a wide margin, yet context matches appearance on UCF-Crime and exceeds it on the larger split: cropping to the interacting people yields no advantage over encoding the whole frame. This prompts a direct test of what the benchmark measures. Scoring anomalous videos using only frames preceding the annotated onset, under a control removing sequence length as a cue, retains 39-91% of above-chance separation on both benchmarks, including for seven hand-designed geometric channels. Inspection of the tightest pre-onset windows identifies concrete provenance artifacts: editorial title cards and platform watermarks absent from the surveillance footage supplying the normal class. Video-level AUC here is thus a composite of event evidence and pre-event source cues, a shared source of discrimination that can obscure differences between representations. The diagnostic requires only annotations these benchmarks already ship.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.OC

Anchored Scenario Coverage for Failure-Aware First-Hit Batch Inverse Design

Early discovery of at least one valid design satisfying a target requirement is a central objective in failure-prone closed-loop inverse design. A natural batch baseline ranks candidates by a product-form marginal valid-hit score, but selecting the highest-ranked candidates independently can produce redundant recommendations under predictive uncertainty and waste the experiment budget. We introduce ARC-SC(Anchored Risk-Constrained Scenario Coverage), a batch acquisition method that preserves strong marginal candidates as anchors and allocates the remaining batch positions by maximizing complementary coverage over predictive target scenarios under a risk-support constraint. In frozen-oracle closed-loop simulations on superconductivity and JARVIS materials-property benchmarks, ARC-SC yields a statistically supported improvement in first-hit discovery and remains competitive with directionally favorable first-hit performance on more challenging design space. These results establish ARC-SC as a POF-anchored, scenario-aware batch strategy for improving early valid-target discovery under structured experimental failure.
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All authors Chuhan Yang, Chenxi Wang, Linhan Wu, Yuyang Liu

Machine Learning

FedEHR-Agents: Federated Agentic Optimization for Automated EHR Modeling

Recent advances in large language models are enabling autonomous clinical agents to perform increasingly complex electronic health record (EHR) modeling workflows. However, agents deployed at individual hospitals remain constrained by institution-specific data and modeling environments, while direct cross-hospital collaboration is restricted by the sensitivity of patient-level EHR data. Although federated learning (FL) provides a natural foundation for privacy-preserving collaboration, existing approaches remain predominantly model-centric, limiting federation to prediction models or their updates while overlooking the richer modeling experience accumulated by autonomous agents. To address this limitation, we propose FedEHR-Agents, an experience-centric federated agentic optimization framework for automated EHR modeling. Each hospital deploys an autonomous clinical EHR agent that performs data preprocessing and model development while refining local clinical modeling experience through historical memory, task-specific evaluation, and TextGrad-based prompt refinement. The federated server performs evidence-guided experience aggregation to integrate reliable and complementary modeling experience across heterogeneous hospitals and distills the aggregated experience into global meta-prompts for subsequent local refinement. Extensive experiments on real-world multi-hospital EHR benchmarks demonstrate that FedEHR-Agents consistently outperforms local and federated baselines across diverse clinical prediction tasks and remains robust across different federation scales and LLM backbones. These results establish clinical modeling experience as a promising collaborative object beyond conventional parameter-centric FL and point toward federated autonomous clinical intelligence.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

RealSWE: A Compositional Evaluation of Coding Agents under Realistic User Requests

Coding agents are now commonly evaluated on the SWE-bench family of benchmarks, whose tasks are built from curated GitHub issues: long, structured, and information-rich. Real user requests, however, are typically far shorter and less structured. To characterize this gap, we define a six-category information taxonomy and four dimensions of linguistic style, and apply them to real user prompts from SWE-chat and problem statements from SWE-bench Verified and Pro. We find that requests carrying only a problem statement, alone or with limited additional context, account for 88% of real prompts but just 7% of benchmark problems. Furthermore, 87% of real prompts are casually written whereas 94% of benchmark problems are formal. Guided by these observations, we introduce RealSWE, 381 multi-variant task families derived from SWE-bench Verified and Pro. Variants within each family share the same underlying task and gold patch while differing only in information composition and linguistic style. Evaluating seven contemporary LLMs with RealSWE, we find that i) realistic inputs reduce resolution rates by 6.4 pp on average and can change model rankings. Controlled analysis further shows that ii) including Desired Behavior and Motivation significantly affects performance, whereas Environment Information and Reproduction Steps merely add tokens without measurable benefit; iii) linguistic style has only small, model-dependent effects. These findings provide actionable guidance for users and agents: explicitly stating the desired behavior and motivation, which most real prompts omit, substantially improves the LLM's software engineering performance.
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All authors Gyuhyeong Kim, Hyojung Gwon, Jeonghyeon Kim, Kyuhong Shim, Sunjae Lee

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IR

Personalized and Multi-View Representation for Federated Cold-Start Recommendation

Federated recommendation (FedRec) enables personalized modeling without centralizing users' interaction histories, but most existing methods assume a fixed item pool and thus overlook the practical cold-item setting where new items continuously arrive. Under the dual-sided constraint, where the server cannot access clients' interactions while clients cannot access the server's proprietary item attribute features, prior federated cold-start recommendation approaches suffer from three structural limitations: a lack of personalization, compositionality failure caused by forcing heterogeneous semantics into a single embedding space, and training- and communication-inefficiency arising from explicit alignment between separate collaborative and attribute representations. To address these challenges, we propose Personalized and Multi-view Representation for Federated Cold-Start Recommendation (PMFRec). PMFRec learns a personalized representation generator to produce user-specific item representations from attribute features, and introduces a global multi-view encoder with item-adaptive gating and an orthogonality objective to capture complementary semantic views while reducing cross-view redundancy. In addition, PMFRec fuses collaborative and attribute knowledge into a single exchanged item representation, eliminating the need for an explicit client-side regularizer and reducing communication overhead. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that PMFRec consistently outperforms strong baselines in cold-item recommendation and further improves user-level fairness, warm-scenario adaptability, and robustness under Local Differential Privacy (LDP).
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All authors Jaehyung Lim, Wonbin Kweon, Woojoo Kim, Junyoung Kim, Dongha Kim, Hwanjo Yu