Machine Learning
SHIFT: Survival Prediction from Incomplete and Heterogeneous Genomic Data
Muhammet Sami Yavuz, Ayhan Can Erdur, Sabri Mustafa Kahya et al. (+2 more)
Genomic prediction models often fail to transfer across institutions because sequencing panels differ across sites, creating structural feature missingness at deployment. Existing approaches to this challenge typically restrict analysis to genes shared across cohorts, exclude patients with incomplete profiles, or rely on test-time imputation, all of which can reduce robustness and limit the use of multi-center data. We propose Survival prediction Handling Incomplete Features using
Transformer (SHIFT), a missingness-aware survival model that directly predicts from incomplete genomic inputs without test-time imputation. SHIFT represents each genomic feature separately and uses masked self-
attention, along with a feature-availability mask, so that predictions are based only on observed inputs. Further, we introduce variable-rate feature masking during training to improve robustness to heterogeneous missingness patterns. We evaluate the approach on glioblastoma and lung squamous
cell carcinoma with external validation across multiple cohorts, including a challenging setting with severe cross-cohort panel mismatch. Across these settings, SHIFT shows strong generalization and compares favorably with standard survival baselines and imputation-based approaches, while using a single model across differing feature sets. We also find that incorporating patients from incomplete cohorts during development can improve performance on external data, suggesting that partially observed cohorts need not be excluded from model building. These results support missingness-aware modeling as a practical strategy for multi-center survival prediction in precision oncology.
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All authors Muhammet Sami Yavuz, Ayhan Can Erdur, Sabri Mustafa Kahya, Benedikt Wiestler, Jana Lipkova
Machine Learning
Uncertainty-gated selection for block-sparse attention
Thomas Rossi
Block-sparse
attention scales long-context
language models by replacing the O(N^2) softmax with a per-query top-k selection over key blocks. This cutoff is myopic: when the k-th and (k+1)-th blocks are nearly tied in score, the selector commits without spending extra budget, and a dropped block carrying answer evidence is unrecoverable downstream. We propose a value-of-information router that measures, for each query, how decisively the top-k cut was made, and doubles the kept set for the queries where that gap is smallest; the rule is backbone-agnostic and stacks with existing block-scoring methods such as Quest. On LongBench-v2 medium at n=215 (the entire
dataset subset), router-on-Quest reaches paired recall 0.75 vs. top-k 0.47 – +28 pp over the SSA-style baseline (McNemar p<0.01) – and lands within 2 pp of dense on RULER NIAH multikey at the same context. The lift reproduces on four models from three architectures (Qwen2.5, Mistral-Nemo, Qwen3.6). At 128K, the router preserves 0.81 and 0.89 of dense accuracy on Qwen2.5-7B-1M and Qwen3.6 (vs. SSA-style top-k at 0.09 on the former) while the fused selection-plus-kernel pipeline runs at 0.62x and 0.80x dense wall time.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
Context Graphs for Proactive Enterprise Agents
Avinash Kumar
Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and agentic frameworks have advanced enterprise AI considerably, yet
agents remain fundamentally reactive: they wait for a human query before acting. This paper argues that genuine enterprise productivity gains require proactive
agents: systems that surface relevant, actionable information to workers before they ask. We propose the Context Graph, a live relational data structure that models enterprise entities, their relationships, and state transitions over time. Built on this graph, we define a Delta Detection Engine that continuously monitors state changes, a Proactivity Scorer that ranks candidate insights by urgency, relevance, and persona-fit, and a Surfacing Layer powered by an LLM that delivers ranked notifications with grounded explanations. We formalize each component, derive a unified Proactivity Score function, and provide a complete end-to-end Python implementation using NetworkX and the Anthropic Claude API. Evaluation across three generic enterprise case studies (contract lifecycle management, engineering incident response, and sales pipeline hygiene) demonstrates that context-graph-driven proactivity achieves Precision@5 of 0.83, a false positive rate of 0.11, and reduces mean time to surface from 47 minutes (reactive baseline) to under 30 second.
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Machine Learning
Omni-Sleep: A Sleep Foundation Model via Hierarchical Contrastive Learning of CNS-ANS Dynamics
Zhoujie Hou, Song Wang, Kexin Lou et al. (+3 more)
Sleep physiology arises from the coordinated dynamics of the central nervous system (CNS) and autonomic nervous system (ANS), as reflected by
multimodal polysomnography signals including
EEG, EOG, EMG, ECG, and respiration. However, existing sleep foundation models often fuse heterogeneous biosignals in a
topology-agnostic manner, overlooking their physiological organization. We introduce Omni-Sleep, a sleep foundation model that uses the CNS/ANS partition as a physiological prior for
topology-constrained representation learning. Omni-Sleep learns structured representations through three objectives: intra-system consistency, which captures shared subsystem-level factors within neural and cardio-respiratory signals; inter-system synchronization, which aligns subsystem trajectories to model
brain–body dynamics; and latent-space masked temporal modeling, which captures long-horizon sleep dynamics. Pre-trained on over 100,000 hours of multi-center
multimodal PSG data, Omni-Sleep is evaluated on sleep staging and multi-disease classification. Across
datasets and modality-ablation settings, Omni-Sleep outperforms strong foundation-model baselines, showing improved label efficiency, cross-
dataset generalization, and robustness to missing modalities. These results highlight the value of physiological hierarchy for generalizable sleep representation learning. Code is available at https://github.com/AutoBrain-sleep/OmniSleep.
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All authors Zhoujie Hou, Song Wang, Kexin Lou, Mo Wang, Chen Wei, Quanying Liu
Machine Learning
ReCoLoRA: Spectrum-Aware Recursive Consolidation for Continual LLM Fine-Tuning
Wentao Lu
Parameter-efficient fine-tuning adapts a large
language model to one task cheaply, but across a task sequence LoRA-style methods keep stacking low-rank updates on the same frozen weight, so each new task tends to overwrite the previous ones. We present ReCoLoRA (Recursive Consolidation of Low-Rank Adapters), a spectrum-aware framework for continual fine-tuning: adapters are initialized from a randomized SVD of the pretrained weight, per-layer effective ranks are selected by an elbow criterion, and the principal subspace is adapted before residual capacity is opened. Before each new task, ReCoLoRA re-decomposes the current effective weight, rather than the original one, into a frozen residual, a slowly updated principal component, and a fresh adapter (recursive consolidation), so every task starts from the model that has already absorbed its predecessors. On a six-task continual GLUE sequence over four 7-8B backbones, ReCoLoRA attains the best final average score on three of the four backbones against rank-swept LoRA, PiSSA, AdaLoRA, and DoRA baselines while training fewer parameters; an oracle-routed task-bank variant serves as an upper bound under full task isolation. Code: https://github.com/bhqy666/ReCoLoRA.
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Machine Learning
LLT: Local Linear Transformer for PDE Operator Learning
Oded Ovadia and Eli Turkel
Neural operators have become a common approach for learning PDE solution maps and accelerating numerical simulations.
Transformer-based neural operators are of particular interest, since
attention can learn long-range dependencies in the computational domain. However, standard
attention has two major limitations when applied to PDEs: it scales quadratically with the number of computational nodes, and it lacks an explicit bias toward local interactions. To address these issues, we introduce Local Linear
Transformer (LLT) for PDE operator learning. The architecture combines linear global
attention with local spatial mixing, and incorporates coordinate and geometry information. We evaluate LLT on several PDE problems, including elasticity, plasticity, airfoil flow, pipe flow, and Darcy flow. The reference data for these problems span finite-element, finite-volume, and finite-difference discretizations on structured and unstructured meshes. Compared with other neural-operator and
transformer baselines from prior studies, LLT achieves competitive or lower relative $L_2$ error across these problems. On matched structured discretizations, wall-clock time per training iteration is reduced by factors of 1.8 to 2.5 relative to Transolver. We also scale the approach and apply it to a three-dimensional car aerodynamics
dataset with 32,186 unstructured mesh points per sample. Together, these results indicate that LLT provides an accurate and computationally efficient operator for PDE problems across discretizations, mesh types, and problem settings.
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Machine Learning
Who Gets Missed in the Tail? Thresholded Subgroup Underdiagnosis in Long-Tailed Chest X-ray Classification
Ha-Hieu Pham, Hai-Dang Nguyen, Dang P. M. Cao et al. (+5 more)
In chest X-ray (CXR) classification, acceptable ranking performance can still leave rare-positive patients below threshold, especially within subgroups. We study this pre-deployment
fairness problem as an audit question: after a long-tailed multi-label CXR model is converted from scores into decisions, who is missed? Across VinDr-CXR and MIMIC-CXR/CXR-LT, we use a diagnostic ladder to separate class-level long-tail losses, subgroup-aware weighting, group robustness, and threshold selection. On VinDr-CXR, group-tail weighting followed by tail-aware thresholding reduces tail FNR from 0.665 to 0.269, sex worst-group FNR from 0.705 to 0.157, and age worst-group FNR from 0.822 to 0.133, while macro-mAP increases from 0.611 to 0.635. On MIMIC-CXR/CXR-LT, the same score-to-threshold comparison reduces tail FNR from 0.866 to 0.741 and lowers worst-group FNR across sex, age, race, and insurance; residual missed-positive rates nevertheless remain high. Paired bootstrap contrasts on VinDr support the thresholded FNR reductions, and GroupDRO reference runs indicate that aggregate group robustness alone does not remove rare subgroup misses in this setting. The study supports a narrow audit claim: rare-label
fairness in CXR depends jointly on the finding, subgroup, and operating threshold, not on label frequency or ranking metrics alone.
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All authors Ha-Hieu Pham, Hai-Dang Nguyen, Dang P. M. Cao, Thanh-Huy Nguyen, Min Xu, Trung-Nghia Le, Ulas Bagci, Huy-Hieu Pham
Machine Learning
Towards the Explainability of Temporal Graph Networks via Memory Backtracking and Topological Attribution
Yazheng Liu, Xi Zhang, Sihong Xie et al. (+1 more)
Temporal graphs are ubiquitous in real-world applications and Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) have achieved superior predictive accuracy. Understanding which historical events drive model predictions can enhance trustworthiness of TGNs. Existing explanation methods overlook the
memory module, the core component that records and updates node histories, leaving the influence of past events unexplored. To address this, we attribute TGNs predictions through the
topology attribution tree and
memory backtracking tree. The
topology attribution tree captures the influence of neighbors and their
memory vectors, then the
memory backtracking tree quantifies how historical events shape node
memory vectors. We apply the LRP in TGNs, ensuring that the total contribution of events equals the logits of model. Finally, top-k selection may be unfaithful due to the nonlinear mapping from logits to probabilities, we design optimization objectives to identify the important events. Experiments on nine temporal graph
datasets, spanning node property prediction, link prediction tasks and graph classification tasks, show that our method provides faithful explanations and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/yazhengliu/MemExplainer
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All authors Yazheng Liu, Xi Zhang, Sihong Xie, Hui Xiong
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-bio.QM
Trajectory Inference of Human Aging from Cross-Sectional DNA Methylation Data
Chandan Gupta, Syed Haider and Pietro Liò
DNA methylation (DNAm) serves as one of the most robust molecular biomarkers of biological aging. While conventional epigenetic clocks accurately predict chronological age from high-dimensional CpG profiles, they treat aging as a static regression task, meaning they can only output a single score rather than simulating how an entire profile continuously changes over time. To reconstruct these continuous dynamics, we frame lifelong human epigenetic aging as a trajectory inference problem across discrete age snapshots derived from widely available cross-sectional data. We introduce a two-stage computational pipeline: first, an age-regularized Variational Autoencoder (VAE) maps high-dimensional CpG profiles onto a chronologically ordered latent
manifold while preserving a generative decoder bridge back to the original methylation space. Second, we model the continuous movement across this latent space via Regularized Unbalanced Optimal Transport (RUOT) that unifies deterministic drift, random
diffusion, and non-conservative mass changes. By resolving this RUOT formulation using the DeepRUOT framework, our model fluidly accommodates population-level density shifts like survivorship bias and cellular attrition without requiring rigid biological priors. Evaluated on a large-scale, 80-year pan-tissue
dataset, our model demonstrates robust distribution interpolation and uncovers a prominent late-life surge in the learned growth field that mathematically captures the variance expansion driven by
stochastic epigenetic drift. Finally, by decoding continuous latent paths back to individual CpG sites, we reconstruct and empirically verify distinct biological aging archetypes, offering a rigorous, generative paradigm for simulating human molecular aging.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.DS
A Policy Decomposition Framework for Dynamic Order Fulfillment Operations
Gal Neria, Michal Tzur and Marlin W. Ulmer
Modern supply chains span diverse operational environments, ranging from e-commerce distribution networks to customized production-to-order manufacturing lines. Across these settings, operational efficiency depends on coordinating two highly interdependent stages: order preparation and downstream delivery. Although these stages are traditionally managed in isolation, real-world fulfillment systems must satisfy stringent delivery expectations under dynamic
stochastic order arrivals. To bridge this gap, we introduce the Dynamic Order Fulfillment Problem (DOFP), a new problem class unifying logistical challenges previously studied separately. We model DOFP as a Markov decision process whose state and decision spaces are partitioned into preparation and delivery sub-spaces, linked by synchronization constraints. While recent approaches attempt to optimize both fulfillment stages simultaneously over myopic rolling horizons, our framework isolates and optimizes the downstream delivery policy, treating preparation strictly as a state-level constraint filter. To solve this, we develop the Decomposition-Driven Framework with Value Function Approximation (DDF-VFA), which utilizes a novel policy-level decomposition. This design partitions the search into a delivery-stage master problem and a preparation-stage compatibility subproblem, iteratively refined via feedback loops. DDF-VFA executes this strategy by combining a large-neighborhood search over partial delivery decisions with a neural-network value function approximation for the cost-to-go. Numerical illustrations on two example variants using real-world
datasets show that DDF-VFA consistently outperforms
benchmarks that optimize the two stages independently or jointly without decomposition. Finally, the framework naturally scales to accommodate additional real-world complexities such as batched or multi-stage preparation.
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Machine Learning
Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh, Vijay Lingam, Atula Tejaswi et al. (+3 more)
On-policy
distillation is a powerful way to transfer
reasoning ability from a strong teacher to a smaller student: the student samples trajectories from its own policy, and the teacher provides dense
token-level supervision on the states the student actually visits. However, this supervision is not always reliable: a teacher can assign high likelihood to plausible but incorrect solutions, or low likelihood to correct student solutions that follow different
reasoning paths. Unconditionally distilling the teacher can therefore reinforce bad modes or erase useful student behavior. To address these limitations, we introduce RG-OPD: Reward-Gated On-Policy
Distillation that uses verifier feedback to decide when teacher logits should be trusted. RG-OPD bridges sparse verifier rewards and dense teacher logits, preserving
token-level supervision while filtering misleading teacher signals. Across
reasoning and coding
benchmarks, RG-OPD produces stronger distilled students, outperforming both vanilla reverse-KL
distillation and the recent TSD-KD baseline. At 1K generation length, RG-OPD improves over reverse-KL by 2.9 points and over TSD-KD by 4.9 points; in the long-generation setting, it improves over the untuned student by 8.2 points. Our code is available at https://github.com/UoC-tail/RG-OPD.
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All authors Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh, Vijay Lingam, Atula Tejaswi, Chanakya Ekbote, Sujay Sanghavi, Aleksandar Bojchevski
Machine Learning
OmniOpt: Taxonomy, Geometry, and Benchmarking of Modern Optimizers
Siyuan Li, Jiabao Pan, Yumou Liu et al. (+9 more)
Optimizer selection for large-scale model training has become a system-level design decision constrained jointly by compute,
memory, tuning budget, and task diversity, yet the landscape of over one hundred methods remains fragmented. We therefore present OmniOpt, a unified survey and
benchmark cookbook of optimizers for the research community. OmniOpt rests on four coupled components. First, we treat every optimizer update as a structured transformation through a five-stage meta-pipeline, and show that most methods engage only one or two of these stages. Second, we use norm-constrained linear minimization oracles (LMOs) to unify different optimizers. Third, these two views ground a dual-dimension taxonomy, one dimension assigning each method to a mechanism family and the other recording the measurable training objectives it aims to improve. Fourth, and at the core of this paper, we instantiate the full taxonomy in a unified cross-domain
benchmark spanning representative optimizers, model scales, and training regimes from
language model pretraining to image classification, systematically analyzing each method family across multiple effect objectives and laying out their trade-offs. OmniOpt thus supplies the research community with an operational coordinate system for selecting optimizers under explicit mechanism and objective assumptions, and charts a direction for the future development of the optimizer community.
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All authors Siyuan Li, Jiabao Pan, Yumou Liu, Zhuoli Ouyang, Xin Jin, Xinglong Xu, Jingxuan Wei, Shengye Pang, Jintao Che, Xuanhe Zhou, Conghui He, Cheng Tan
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DB
Efficient Discovery of Conditional Dependencies with Desbordante
Ivan Kozhukov, Dmitry Fedoseev, Maksim Emelyanov et al. (+4 more)
Conditional functional dependencies (CFDs) are functional dependencies with a restricted scope: they specify the context in which a dependency holds and are useful for data-quality tasks, specifying complex integrity constraints, and extracting valuable insights from data. We study the CFD discovery problem, which is computationally demanding. We build on the state-of-the-art CFDFinder
algorithm and introduce a set of algorithmic and engineering improvements, including a parallelization strategy, to produce ParCFDFinder. Our implementation is integrated into Desbordante - a high-performance open-source data profiler written in C++ that exposes a Python interface, enabling CFD discovery to be invoked from any Python program. Experimental results show that our enhancements speed up the
algorithm by up to $318\times$ ($118\times$ on average) and reduce
memory usage by up to $23\times$ ($14\times$ on average) compared with the existing Java-based implementation of Metanome. Integrating ParCFDFinder into Desbordante makes it possible, for the first time, to conveniently discover CFDs on
datasets with hundreds of thousands of rows on a commodity machine within a reasonable time.
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All authors Ivan Kozhukov, Dmitry Fedoseev, Maksim Emelyanov, Artem Smola, Pyotr Senichenkov, Pavel Anosov, George Chernishev
Machine Learning
A Unified Algebraic Framework for Classification Performance Evaluation
Ronaldo C. Prati
We propose a unified algebraic framework for classification performance evaluation covering binary, multiclass, multilabel, ordinal, hierarchical, cost-sensitive, and soft-label settings. Actual and predicted labels are represented as binary indicator
matrices, where three aggregation operators (global, column-wise, row-wise) correspond directly to micro, macro/weighted, and exemplar averaging. Any binary measure expressed in terms of the four confusion-
matrix counts extends to all these settings by substituting an operator, with no measure-specific derivation. We show that structural properties governing an extension are derivable from the binary formula. Micro-averaging equals denominator-weighted macro-averaging precisely for aggregation-decomposable (linear-fractional) measures, a strict class characterised algebraically. For soft ground truth, we prove from t-norm axioms alone that the product t-norm is the unique choice whose confusion counts preserve marginal memberships. In multiclass settings, micro-precision, micro-recall, and micro-F1 collapse identically onto accuracy. Furthermore, binary skew-invariance transfers unconditionally to multilabel aggregation, but only partially to multiclass problems. For measures with a linear numerator and prediction-independent denominator, the optimal decision threshold is the share of the numerator weight favouring a negative prediction, revealing when standard training targets the measure. Under one-hot multiclass encoding, a measure fails to attain its theoretical minimum whenever its zero-true-positive value still depends on true negatives, establishing non-trivial performance floors even for completely incorrect classifiers (e.g., zero correct predictions on 10 classes yields a label accuracy of 0.8).
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Machine Learning
When Does Small Data Work? Accuracy and Efficiency Trade-offs Between Tabular Foundation Models and Conventional Methods for Crowd-State Classification at Hajj and Umrah
AlJawharh S. AlOtaibi, Mohamed Eltahir and Jude AlSubaie
Learning from few labeled examples is a central challenge in tabular machine learning, and it becomes the binding constraint in domains where labeling is costly, such as crowd monitoring during Hajj and Umrah. Tabular foundation models, which predict from only a handful of examples without task-specific training, were recently introduced to address this very-few-label regime. In this study we test them on crowd-state classification to assess how much they help when labels are scarce, and we compare them against standard machine learning methods to characterize the accuracy and efficiency trade-offs between the two approaches. Using three real
datasets we evaluate different machine learning models, in untuned and tuned forms, against three foundation models. Results show that no single family is best everywhere. The right choice depends on the label budget. When labels are very few, foundation models lead. As labels grow, tuned conventional models catch up and significantly surpass the foundation models on the more structural geometry target. Efficiency separates them further where tuned machine learning models incur a large tuning cost that foundation models avoid, although foundation models reprocess their context at every prediction. We summarize these results as a practical map of which approach to prefer under a given label budget and computational budget.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
Explainable AI for Screening Abuse-Related Trauma in Bangladeshi Children: A Training-Free Multimodal Framework Evaluated on Noise-Aware Synthetic Data
Salma Hoque Talukdar Koli and Fahima Haque Talukder Jely
Bangladesh has an estimated 1.17 mental-health professionals per 100,000 population and only six child psychiatrists nationwide. No Bengali-
language, culturally adapted tool exists for early screening of abuse-related psychological trauma in children. We present ShishuRaksha AI, a decision-support (not diagnostic) framework that fuses four screening modalities: validated questionnaires (SDQ, CPSS), Bengali narrative text, House-Tree-Person (HTP) drawing features, and facial affect. The fusion is training-free and clinically weighted, uses cross-modal
attention, and includes a single-modality override rule. Every risk score is explained through clinically weighted, perturbation-based additive attribution and rendered as a bilingual (Bangla/English) report with referral routing to national child-protection services (OCC, DSS, NMHH) under the Children Act 2013. No clinical
dataset of abused children can be collected ethically at this stage, so we introduce a noise-aware synthetic
benchmark (500 cases, 116 positive [23.2%], four deliberate noise layers, literature-grounded HTP priors) and evaluate tree-ensemble surrogates of the fusion design (facial channel excluded) under 5-fold stratified cross-validation. The fused model reaches an AUC of 0.874 [0.834-0.908], against 0.756 [0.705-0.803] for an SDQ-only baseline, with ablation, operating-point, subgroup, and calibration analyses. We state all limitations openly, including synthetic-only data, no held-out set, text-feature circularity, and an urban-rural subgroup gap. This work is a feasibility study and a design contribution toward ethically deployable child-protection screening in low-resource settings.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ME
Significance-First Splitting: Aligning Treatment Heterogeneity Detection with Honest Estimation
Pantelis Z. Hadjipantelis, Weng Man Chiang and Karthik Nagesh
Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (CATE) requires simultaneously detecting effect modification and quantifying estimation uncertainty. Existing tree-based methods make an uneasy trade-off: significance-based approaches (Radcliffe and Surry 2011) identify subgroup interactions directly but lack valid inference; honest causal trees (Athey and Imbens 2016) deliver nominal confidence interval coverage but use outcome-agnostic splitting criteria that sacrifice interaction sensitivity. We introduce a hybrid
algorithm that fuses significance-based splitting with honest sample-splitting and cross-validation. Our splitting criterion uses the squared $t$-statistic for the treatment $\times$ side interaction ($t^2$), which is shown to be directly aligned with the honest $\text{EMSE}_\tau$ criterion when the interaction is strong. Post-hoc honest cross-validation selects the cost-complexity penalty, giving a single principled
estimator with nominal CI coverage at the leaf level. For forests, we retain bootstrap count vectors to enable an infinitesimal jackknife (IJ) variance estimate of Monte-Carlo convergence rather than formal pointwise inference. On the three synthetic designs from (Athey and Imbens 2016) the single tree achieves approximately 90% leaf-average CI coverage at the 90% nominal level across all three designs (200 replications each); on the Criteo, Hillstrom and Starbucks uplift
datasets we match Qini coefficient performance of S-, T-learner and GRF baselines. An open-source Python package with reproducible seeds, sklearn-compatible API, and full test coverage accompanies this work (https://codeberg.org/hadjipantelis/rattus).
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Machine Learning
Directional Curvature from Armijo Backtracking: A Low-Cost Sharpness Probe and a Calibration-Free Learning-Rate Safeguard for Adam
Ashmitha R and Jörg Frochte
Local sharpness, defined by the largest Hessian
eigenvalue $\lambda_1$, sets the maximum stable gradient update size, but its computation would usually require running Lanczos or Hessian-vector products. However, we notice that even a single Armijo backtracking line search already contains this information with just a few forward passes, as the accepted step $\alpha$ determines the directional
curvature along the search direction up to the multiplicative band set by the backtracking factor. The correlation between $\log\alpha$ and $\log\lambda_1$ on CIFAR-10, Fashion-MNIST and Imagenette reaches $-0.91$ to $-0.95$ in Pearson correlation, and even after removing the trend per run the correlation remains at $-0.60$ to $-0.70$. This allows for a cheap online Edge-of-Stability estimate of the slow sharpness component. The employed probing mechanism searches along Adam's first-step update direction, at initialisation and nine times over the course of the first 50 optimiser steps. The learning-rate cap is set as twice the smallest observed step size, and in the studied learning-rate ranges ($10^{-3}$ to $3.0$) and GPT-2 pretraining experiments all capped runs avoid divergence; in the general architecture analysis, one MLP architecture is still sensitive to the initial batch order. This probing protocol incurs an approximately one percent overhead, and using a non-binding cap means that the optimiser's state and first update are bit-identical. There is no fine-tuning of any of the protocol parameters to any specific architecture; this is the sense in which this is a calibration-free safeguard. It is meant as a way of avoiding divergence, not achieving accuracy. At GPT-2 scale, multiple measurements also illustrate why an initialisation-only cap is insufficient: directional
curvature rises substantially in the first five optimiser steps, which motivates the short probationary window.
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Machine Learning
Knowing When to Stop: Predicting Execution-Consistency Convergence in Text-to-SQL
Yaron Anavi, Mor Aisenberg, Nadav Nesher et al. (+2 more)
Repeated LLM calls are the standard way to estimate how trustworthy a Text-to-SQL result is: run the pipeline multiple times, judge each SQL execution, and use the consistency of the verdicts as a confidence signal. The open question is when to stop, when the consistency has converged. We formulate this as a convergence-prediction problem and train a family of lightweight 1-D models that observe the running consistency trajectory and decide, at each step, whether further runs are unlikely to shift it materially, and we
benchmark them against a principled Beta-Bernoulli stopping rule and a learned run-count baseline. On the BIRD
benchmark and two production customer
datasets, our method adapts its stopping point to each user question, halting sooner when consistency converges early and continuing longer when it converges late. We further show that the weak serial correlation between runs lets us permute their order as a training augmentation, controlled by a tunable shuffling weight. Performance stays consistent across the three
datasets, and to mimic an imperfect production judge we inject noise into the correct/incorrect verdicts obtained by comparing the generated and ground-truth SQL results, showing that the method still predicts convergence reliably.
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All authors Yaron Anavi, Mor Aisenberg, Nadav Nesher, Elena Khabibullina, Isabella Cattinelli
Machine Learning
MANCE: Manifold Aware Concept Erasure
Matan Avitan, Yoav Goldberg and Yanai Elazar
Concept erasure aims to remove a target concept from a representation while preserving the other information encoded in it. This is difficult because representations encode many concepts that are often correlated with the erasure target, so removing the target risks damaging them. We propose the
Manifold Constraint Hypothesis (MCH): if natural representations concentrate on a structured, lower-dimensional
manifold, then interventions should be constrained to that
manifold and better preserve other information encoded in the representation during interventions. We instantiate MCH in a new concept erasure method:
MANifold aware Concept Erasure (MANCE). MANCE performs iterative updates to the representations using signals from a classifier that predicts a target concept. We estimate the
manifold using representations obtained from natural inputs, and then we project the concept removal update to the estimated
manifold. We perform extensive evaluation on 119 settings spanning text and
vision, including 13
language models, three NLP concepts, and 40 CelebA-CLIP attributes. Employing MANCE on top of previous methods shows consistent improved leakage results. We also introduce MANCE+ and MANCE++, which prepend a closed-form erasure
algorithm before employing MANCE, achieving better leakage–surgicality tradeoffs relative to matched full-space updates. MANCE++, our best method, achieves state-of-the-art results on nonlinear concept erasure. These results support MCH in the erasure setting: interventions should be constrained to the natural representation
manifold.
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Machine Learning
Order-based Causal Discovery for Multistage Processes
Eun-Yeol Ma, Junsub Jung and Heeyoung Kim
Causality has become an increasingly important tool for gaining a deeper understanding of complex systems. Among various causal analysis methods, causal discovery, which identifies causal relationships among variables from data, has been widely used to uncover underlying causality in diverse processes. However, while multistage processes are prevalent in many fields, existing causal discovery methods may produce counterintuitive results, given the known process knowledge, and may not be computationally efficient for handling large
datasets typical of multistage processes. To address this gap, we propose a novel causal discovery method called Order-based Causal Discovery for Multistage Processes (OCDM). OCDM is designed to infer the causal structure of multistage data while preserving their inherent hierarchical and sequential structure by explicitly incorporating process knowledge into the causal discovery process. Specifically, we propose a structural knowledge-informed order-inferring
algorithm that infers the causal order of variables by incorporating information about the stage from which each variable originates, based on an order-based causal discovery framework naturally suited for inherently ordered multistage data. Furthermore, to eliminate spurious edges from the initial causal graph generated based on the inferred causal order, we introduce a novel
pruning technique using
stochastic gated neural networks, which offers greater computational efficiency compared to existing methods. Through experiments on various
datasets, we demonstrate that OCDM effectively infers the causal structure of multistage processes, outperforming existing methods.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.IV
Cross-Modal Fusion of OCT and OCT angiography enface for Improved Diagnostics of Diabetic Retinopathy
Rashadul Hasan Badhon, Atalie Carina Thompson, Jennifer I. Lim et al. (+2 more)
Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a leading cause of
vision impairment worldwide, highlighting the need for accurate and accessible screening tools. Optical Coherence
Tomography (OCT) provides high-resolution structural information of the retina, whereas OCT angiography (OCTA) offers complementary vascular information that is highly relevant for DR diagnosis. In this study, we propose a cross-modal fusion of OCT B-scans with single-channel en face OCTA using a bidirectional cross-modal
attention network for automated DR classification. Two independent
datasets, OCT500 and UIC, comprising 730 subjects in total, were utilized to evaluate performance under within-
dataset, combined-
dataset, and cross-
dataset generalization settings. A ConvNeXt V2 model trained solely on OCT images served as the unimodal baseline. In addition to ground-truth (GT) OCTA, we explored the use of translated (TR) OCTA generated from OCT scans, eliminating the requirement for dedicated OCTA hardware. Experimental results demonstrate that cross-modal fusion consistently outperforms unimodal OCT classification across all evaluation scenarios. Fusion with GT OCTA improved classification accuracy and discriminative performance, while TR OCTA achieved comparable or superior results in most settings. Furthermore, TR OCTA improved sensitivity and cross-
dataset generalization, indicating enhanced robustness to domain shifts. These findings demonstrate that
attention-based OCT-OCTA en face fusion provides clinically meaningful improvements for DR detection and suggest that computationally generated OCTA can serve as a practical, low-cost alternative to hardware-acquired OCTA, enabling broader deployment of high-performance retinal screening systems in resource-limited clinical environments.
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All authors Rashadul Hasan Badhon, Atalie Carina Thompson, Jennifer I. Lim, Theodore Leng, Minhaj Nur Alam
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
TESSERA v2: Scaling Pixel-wise Earth Foundation Models
Zhengpeng Feng, Sadiq Jaffer, Ira Shokar et al. (+12 more)
Pixel-wise Earth-observation (EO) foundation models are now achieving state-of-the-art performance via generated spatial
embeddings. However, how these models scale and how best to spend a pretraining budget remain poorly understood. We present the largest controlled scaling study for EO to date: 395 training runs within a fixed pixel-wise Barlow Twins family, each evaluated on 15 diverse downstream tasks. We find that pretraining loss barely predicts downstream performance (|Pearson r| < 0.2), so selecting models by loss wastes a large share of the compute. We also find that, as the training budget grows, the encoder and the data should grow together while the projector stays fixed, which gives a simple rule for allocating compute. Using this rule, we train a family of pixel-wise teachers (0.5B, 1B, and 2B) and distil the largest into compact students for
embeddings-as-data deployment. In aggregate, our 44-million-parameter distilled student outperforms every open and proprietary
embedding product we test, several of them an order of magnitude larger. These students produce Matryoshka representations that are inexpensive to serve: a 16-dimensional prefix keeps 92% of the full 128-dimensional performance at 1/8 of the storage. Together, these results give a concrete, empirically grounded recipe for scaling pixel-wise EO foundation models: train large encoders, select by downstream performance, and distil into flexible student models. We plan to release global 10 m annual
embeddings covering 2017-2025 as version 2 of the TESSERA foundation-model
embeddings product. All code is available at: https://github.com/ucam-eo/tessera
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All authors Zhengpeng Feng, Sadiq Jaffer, Ira Shokar, Jovana Knezevic, James Ball, Pedro Sousa, Mark Elvers, Madeline Lisaius, Clement Atzberger, Robin Young, Aneesh Naik, Niall Robinson, David Coomes, Anil Madhavapeddy, Srinivasan Keshav
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
Online Linear Programming for Multi-Objective Routing in LLM Serving
Zixi Chen, Yinyu Ye and Zijie Zhou
We study the online routing problem in large
language model serving, where requests arrive sequentially and must be dispatched to parallel decode workers under tight batch-size and KV-cache constraints. Unlike widely used routing heuristics that are not tied to explicit service-level objectives (SLOs) and offer limited control over latency-throughput trade-offs, we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework that formulates routing as an online linear programming with interpretable decision rewards. We apply an efficient bid-price control policy based on the online linear programming that admits requests when their SLO-weighted benefit exceeds their shadow prices. To meet millisecond decision requirements, we develop a warm-started, projected first-order updates that track the evolving dual shadow prices online with predictable runtime. We integrate our router into the Vidur simulator and demonstrate substantial improvements over standard baselines across multiple SLO regimes, including end-to-end latency, time-to-first-
token, throughput, and tail performance. A big picture from our result: a science-based approach outperforms others based on heuristics.
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Machine Learning
MPSelectTune: Prompt-type Selection for Fine-tuning improves Concept Unlearning in LLMs
Shubhadip Nag, Srinjoy Das, Agniva Saha et al. (+5 more)
LLMs can be conveniently adapted to a diverse set of tasks, e.g, prediction, question-answering tasks, etc, using appropriate
prompts with few-shot examples. Biased or harmful concepts, e.g. gender or bio-weapons, present in pre-trained LLMs can lead to unsafe or unethical responses for many such
prompts. Removing such undesirable concepts robustly across different
prompt types remains a challenging problem, since existing unlearning methods typically ignore the impact of
prompt variation. In this paper, we explore a novel
adversarial approach to use a joint
prompt for the main task and concept task prediction. We show that fine-tuning using the “worst
prompt type” for concept prediction (with the highest concept accuracy) improves the average unlearning performance over a fine-tuning method that uses a combination of all
prompt types. Our proposed method, MPSelectTune, is a two-stage approach that minimizes the concept accuracy of the highest accuracy-
prompt type, after fine-tuning using a novel multi-task loss using multiple
prompt types. Experimental results on four
benchmarks show $2 - 15\%$ main task accuracy improvements over recent baselines and while reducing the worst-case concept accuracy by up to $17\%$ compared to recent baselines.
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All authors Shubhadip Nag, Srinjoy Das, Agniva Saha, Anushree Ghosh, Soumi Das, Tarun Kumar, Suparna Bhattacharya, Sourangshu Bhattacharya
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Probe, Don't Prompt: A Hidden-State Probe for Metadata Filtering in Multi-Meta-RAG
Mykhailo Poliakov and Nadiya Shvai
Multi-Meta-RAG improves
retrieval for multi-hop question answering by filtering a vector store on metadata, specifically the news source and the publication date, which it extracts from each query using GPT-3.5. This extractor requires a proprietary API call for every query, and its output is not restricted to the allowed sources: even though the
prompt specifies 49 sources, GPT-3.5 generates 128 distinct source names, 79 of which do not appear on the list. We show that the source part of this extractor can be replaced by a local, deterministic probe trained on the hidden states of a small open-source
language model. The probe is a multi-label logistic classifier on the mean-pooled hidden states of one layer, trained with a class-balanced loss on the gold evidence sources. Using 5-fold cross-validation to select the layer, we evaluate four models ranging from 135M to 1.5B parameters out-of-fold across all 2556 MultiHop-RAG queries. The probe reaches a set-exact accuracy of 90.9%, compared to 88.0% for a substring baseline and 80.9% for GPT-3.5. The difference comes from null queries, for which GPT-3.5 never predicts an empty source set. Across the remaining queries, all three methods achieve set-exact accuracies within 1.1 percentage points of each other. Unlike earlier probing work, we use the probe as a component of a
retrieval pipeline rather than for interpretation. For all four models, the cross-validation selects one of the first layers, in contrast to the middle layers reported for
retrieval tasks. We attribute this to the source name appearing verbatim in 95.4% of gold query-source pairs. The 135M model is 1.5 percentage points less accurate than the 1.5B model, so the filter requires only a partial forward pass through a small model and one linear layer. The code is available at https://github.com/mxpoliakov/Multi-Meta-RAG.
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Machine Learning
NeuroOnline: Bridging Pretraining and Online Adaptation for EEG Foundation Models
Weibin Li, Wendu Li, Yushan You et al. (+2 more)
EEG foundation models have shown strong potential in learning generalized representations across subjects and tasks. However, most existing approaches follow a pretraining-static deployment paradigm, which suffers from two key limitations: (1) misalignment between pretraining objectives and downstream tasks, and (2) limited adaptability to distribution shifts in online settings. We propose Online Neural Adaptation (NeuroOnline), a unified framework that enables continuous adaptation in online scenarios. NeuroOnline integrates two complementary mechanisms: (1) multi-view consistency learning, which enforces cross-view
alignment to promote consistent and task-relevant representations, and (2) context-aware representation modulation, which leverages a learnable context
prompt with cross-
attention to dynamically adapt representations to evolving data distributions. Together, these mechanisms unify representation
alignment and dynamic adaptation. Experiments on multiple
EEG benchmarks show that NeuroOnline consistently outperforms strong baselines in online settings, achieving better performance under distribution shifts. Ablation and sensitivity studies further validate the necessity of each component and the effectiveness of the overall design.
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All authors Weibin Li, Wendu Li, Yushan You, Chen Wei, Quanying Liu
Machine Learning
Transformers with Physics-Informed Encodings and Simulation-Based Inference for Robust Detection of Eccentric Binary Black Holes in Pulsar Timing Array Data
Subhajit Dandapat and Alvin J. K. Chua
Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) provide a unique window into nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs), but extracting astrophysical parameters from noisy, long-baseline timing residuals remains computationally challenging with traditional
Bayesian techniques due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space, complex and correlated noise models, and the cost of repeated likelihood evaluations. We introduce a
Transformer with a physics-informed positional-encoding framework for the efficient inference of eccentric binary black holes in relativistic orbits from PTA data. Our approach embeds analytical GW phase
evolution directly into the model through structured positional encodings, enabling the network to learn physically meaningful representations from raw PTA timing residuals. We then use generative models, including discrete and continuous conditional normalizing flows, to infer posterior distributions within a simulation-based inference framework. Across a range of signal-to-noise ratios, the proposed method achieves improved accuracy, sharper posteriors, and faster inference compared to physics-agnostic baselines. While presented for deterministic white-noise signals, the modular framework readily generalizes to realistic PTA analyses incorporating red noise and additional components. This work highlights the potential of physics-aware deep learning models as scalable alternatives to conventional inference pipelines for next-generation PTA
datasets.
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Machine Learning
CDCP: Conditional Diffusion Model with Contextual Prompts for Multi-task Offline Safe Reinforcement Learning
Jiayi Guan, Tianle Zhang, Li Shen et al. (+8 more)
Multi-task offline safe reinforcement learning (RL) promises to learn a shared optimal safe policy from offline data across multiple tasks. This paradigm provides an effective means for the widespread application of RL in multi-task scenarios with high risk and interaction costs. However, the triple challenges of multi-tasking, safety constraints, and out-of-distribution (OOD) actions pose a significant hurdle for existing methods to ensure safety while maximizing reward returns. In this work, we propose a Conditional
Diffusion model with Contextual
Prompts (CDCP) to address these challenges. Concretely, we first rethink the requirements and challenges in current multi-task decision-making and control scenarios and establish the objectives of multi-task offline safe RL. Subsequently, we transform the multi-task constrained optimization problem into a conditional generation problem using the
diffusion model. Based on this, we design a classifier-free guided cost-constraint strategy to provide flexible cost constraints and eliminate extrapolation errors from OOD actions via supervised learning. Additionally, we introduce a novel contextual prompting method to enhance multi-task representation accuracy and adaptability to unseen tasks. A gradient loss synchronization strategy is also introduced to eliminate gradient interference, improving training stability. Finally, extensive experiments demonstrate that the CDCP
algorithm exhibits higher performance and safety in multi-task scenarios than the current state-of-the-art baseline methods. It meets different cost constraints without further training, providing a more flexible cost-constraint solution for the multi-task safe RL.
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All authors Jiayi Guan, Tianle Zhang, Li Shen, Ruiqi Zhang, Ao Zhou, Lusong Li, Guai Chen, Mengjie Li, Alois Knoll, Xiaodong He, Changjun Jiang
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
USE: A Unified Self-Ensembling Framework for Test-Time Prompt Tuning
Siru Jiang, Jian Liang, Ran He et al. (+1 more)
Test-time adaptation (TTA) has emerged as a popular paradigm for improving the performance of
vision-
language models (e.g., CLIP) on downstream tasks. Among existing CLIP-based TTA methods, Test-Time
Prompt Tuning (TPT) is a pioneering work that optimizes textual
prompts using multiple test-time augmentations and remains a strong baseline to date. In this work, we revisit TPT and reveal that its optimization can be interpreted as implicitly learning from self-generated pseudo labels. Building on this perspective, we propose a unified self-ensembling framework (USE) that ensures consistency between the optimization and inference stages. During optimization, we introduce a simple yet effective self-ensembling (SE) strategy that emphasizes the test image itself over its augmented views adaptively to obtain more reliable pseudo labels. To fully exploit the potential of augmentations, we further apply the same strategy at inference time, unifying the objectives of both stages. Notably, SE can also act as a lightweight optimization-free TTA method. Extensive experiments across multiple
datasets demonstrate that SE and USE outperform their counterparts, respectively. Furthermore, SE yields consistent performance gains when integrated with existing TTA methods. The code is available at https://github.com/sirujiang/USE.
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All authors Siru Jiang, Jian Liang, Ran He, Tieniu Tan