Machine Learning
DynaCF: Mitigating Shortcut Learning in Reward Models via Dynamic Counterfactual Sensitivity
Fengyuan Liu, Yongliang Miao, Zirui He et al. (+3 more)
Reward models trained from pairwise preferences often exploit superficial shortcut cues rather than learning true response quality. We propose DynaCF, a dynamic reweighting framework for mitigating shortcut learning in reward model training. Unlike static shortcut heuristics, DynaCF measures shortcut sensitivity online during optimization by applying semantics-preserving counterfactual perturbations and tracking the resulting margin shifts and preference flips under the current model. Samples with higher shortcut sensitivity are dynamically downweighted in the Bradley-Terry objective, encouraging the model to rely less on superficial patterns and more on task-relevant preference signals. Extensive experiments show that DynaCF consistently improves robustness in preference modeling.
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All authors Fengyuan Liu, Yongliang Miao, Zirui He, Yanguang Liu, Fei Sun, Mengnan Du
Machine Learning
TRIAGE: Dialectical LLM Reasoning for Explainable Risk Prediction on Irregularly Sampled Medical Time Series
Hyeongwon Jang, Gyouk Chu, Changhun Kim et al. (+4 more)
Clinical early warning systems built on irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS) from electronic health records must deliver continuous risk scores for patient triage as well as interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify. Large
language models (LLMs) are uniquely positioned for both, deriving risk from their output probabilities and rationales from their medical knowledge. However, we find that conventional LLM
reasoning collapses graded risk into overconfident predictions and thereby undermines the cross-patient comparability on which triage depends. We refer to this failure mode as risk polarization and identify two underlying behaviors: early commitment to a single outcome, and one-sided
reasoning that focuses only on the evidence for that outcome. To address this, we propose TRIAGE, a framework that trains an LLM to reason dialectically over competing clinical outcomes by eliciting outcome-specific rationales. This dialectical formulation mitigates risk polarization, enabling a single LLM to jointly provide explicit clinical rationales and risk scores comparable across patients. Across five ISMTS
benchmarks, TRIAGE improves mean AUPRC by 17.0% and reduces mean calibration error by 82.8% relative to the competitive LLM-based baseline, while surpassing the strongest ISMTS baseline by 3.5% in mean AUPRC.
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All authors Hyeongwon Jang, Gyouk Chu, Changhun Kim, Hangyul Yoon, Jeonguk Lee, Eunho Yang, Joonhyung Park
Machine Learning
Structural Grid Descriptors Predict Within-Task Solver Success on ARC-AGI
Ayan Pendharkar
We ask whether structural properties of intermediate grid states predict whether a symbolic ARC-AGI solver will succeed, framed as a test of conditional mutual information I(X;Y|task) > 0. Across 44,800 runs spanning two architecturally distinct solvers (beam search and
Stochastic DFS), 400 ARC tasks, 28 configurations per solver, and both training and evaluation splits, hand-crafted grid descriptors measured at 50% trajectory completion discriminate successful from failed runs within the same task (mean within-task best-feature AUC = 0.885, p < 0.001 under within-task label permutation). Most predictive content lies along a single grid-complexity axis. The result generalizes across solver architectures: a feature selected on one solver predicts success on the other with AUC 0.747-0.762 in all four transfer directions (p < 0.001, leakage controlled). On a pre-registered held-out set of 41 reliable tasks, the frozen feature n_components_final achieves AUC = 0.765 (95% CI [0.717, 0.810], p < 0.001), robust under task-clustered bootstrap resampling and cross-solver task collapsing. The signal is not explained by solver capacity (configuration-residualized AUC = 0.927 and 0.896 for beam search and SDFS, p < 0.001) and is only weakly coupled to score trajectories (R^2 approximately 0). Early stopping at 50% completion reduces beam-search compute by 33.6% while retaining 98.9% of solves; degenerate-trajectory detection reduces SDFS compute by 65.3% with no solve loss. Finally, on 229 of 400 evaluation tasks the DSL primitive library produces no valid transition from the input grid. This 0-step collapse is invariant to search budget and universally failed by beam search, indicating a DSL coverage limitation rather than a search-budget effect.
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Machine Learning
Understanding Quantization-Aware Training: Gradients at Quantized Weights Bias to the Low-Loss Basin
Hanyang Li, Jianhao Ma and Ying Cui
Post-training quantization (PTQ) converts a trained full-precision model into low-bit weights without task-level retraining, while quantization-aware training (QAT) incorporates quantization into the training loop. Although PTQ is efficient and often accurate at moderate bitwidths, it can fail sharply at aggressive bitwidths; QAT is more expensive but can often recover the lost accuracy. We propose a unified
geometric framework that explains both PTQ failure and QAT recovery. We model full-precision training as following a low-loss river inside a wider valley: a normal neighborhood of the river forms a nearly flat basin, while leaving this basin incurs a sharp loss increase. When the quantization grid is comparable to the basin width, local PTQ objectives, including rounding and Hessian-based second-order reconstruction, can select a high-loss deployed quantized point outside the basin even when nearby low-loss quantized points exist. In this regime, straight-through-
estimator-based QAT has a useful bias: it evaluates gradients at the deployed quantized weights while updating latent full-precision weights, causing the gradient to sense the valley wall and acquire an inward component that steers subsequent quantized iterates back into the basin. We formalize this mechanism through a local landscape model, construct a
geometric PTQ failure mode, and prove finite-time QAT recovery under local quantizer-compatibility assumptions. Experiments across
vision and
language models under multiple neural-network quantization schemes corroborate the predicted basin-crossing failure of PTQ and the corresponding recovery mechanism of QAT.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Multi-Armed Bandits with Arriving Arms: Sequential Screening, Dynamic Regret, and Sublinear Guarantees
Deqi Zheng, Xiaoyang Xu and Yuhong Yang
We study a
stochastic multi-armed bandit problem in which the set of available arms expands over time. This setting arises in sequential experimentation when new actions or treatments become available during an ongoing study, making regret against a single best arm in hindsight inappropriate. We instead evaluate performance relative to the best arm currently available, leading to a dynamic-regret criterion for arriving-arm environments. To address the resulting challenges of arrival information discrepancy (AID) and a drifting
benchmark (DB), we propose UCB for Arriving Arms (UCB-AA), an elimination-based procedure with an aiding preliminary screening step for newly arrived arms before full competition with incumbent arms. We show that UCB-AA attains regret bounds that depend explicitly on the arrival process, achieves sublinear dynamic regret under regularity conditions on gap
evolution, and admits an online extension for unknown horizons. Simulation results show that UCB-AA reduces wasted pulls and maintains a smaller active arm set while preserving competitive regret performance.
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Machine Learning
LEAF: A Learning-Enabled ADMM Framework for Accelerated Convex Optimization
Binh Nguyen, Trinh Tran and Truong X. Nghiem
We propose LEAF, a learning-enabled ADMM framework for accelerated convex optimization. The key idea is to approximate the Moreau envelope of the objective function using an Input Convex Neural Network (ICNN), resulting in a learned model that preserves convexity and smoothness. This leads to the proposed Moreau Envelope Learning ADMM (MEL-ADMM) and its splitting variant sMEL-ADMM. Unlike existing approaches that learn high-dimensional operators directly, LEAF learns a scalar-valued Moreau envelope, significantly reducing model complexity and improving data efficiency. The framework accommodates a broad class of convex problems with smooth and non-smooth objectives. By
embedding convexity explicitly through the ICNN architecture, the proposed approach maintains high approximation accuracy while preserving key structural properties of the optimization problem. Both MEL-ADMM and sMEL-ADMM are developed with theoretical guarantees of convergence and feasibility under the learned model. Rigorous analysis shows that the proposed methods achieve convergence rates comparable to classical ADMM while reducing per-iteration computational cost. Numerical experiments demonstrate up to an order-of-magnitude speedup over state-of-the-art solvers while maintaining low optimality gaps
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Structure-Aware Modeling of Multiple-Choice Questions Improves Automatic Difficulty Estimation
Gabriel Ortega, Abelino Jiménez, Séverin Lions et al. (+1 more)
Automatic Question Difficulty Estimation (AQDE) holds growing promise for educational assessment because it has the potential to yield difficulty estimates that are competitive with expert judgment, while helping reduce the time and financial burden associated with pilot administrations and scaling to digital testing contexts. Prior AQDE studies report mixed evidence on whether adding distractors as additional text to the question stem and the correct key consistently improves difficulty prediction. We hypothesize that the effectiveness of distractor information depends on its structural representation, and that explicitly modeling distractors as separate components improves difficulty estimation over baselines that omit this information. To address this, we designed controlled architectures that model MCQ components as distinct inputs to isolate the contribution of distractor content and order. Specifically, we represented distractors by encoding each distractor as its own text input and aggregating their representations either with order-aware concatenation (with positional tags) or with an order-invariant summation. We evaluated these architectures using two Chilean
datasets (Natural and Social Sciences, 2016-2020; 4,114 multiple-choice questions). Compared to a simpler model that only used the question stem and the key, our best distractor-aware architecture achieved higher predictive performance, reaching R^2 = 0.83 for Natural Sciences and R^2 = 0.71 for Social Sciences items. An order-invariant variant achieved nearly the same accuracy with approximately half as many parameters, offering a favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-off. These results show that structural information (especially distractor content) drives gains in predictive accuracy, supporting the development of efficient, structure-aware models that are computationally viable for large-scale educational applications.
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All authors Gabriel Ortega, Abelino Jiménez, Séverin Lions, Pablo Dartnell
Machine Learning
Beyond Neural Collapse: Task-Intrinsic Geometry Governs Neural Representations in Modular Arithmetic
Hu Tan, Kuo Gai and Shihua Zhang
While neural collapse (NC) predicts that a $K$-class-balanced classifier should organize terminal representations as a $(K-1)$-dimensional simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF), modular addition consistently enters a different regime: networks compress to a two-dimensional cyclic geometry in which both classifier weights and
token embeddings lie on circles. We refine the explanation of this phenomenon in three directions. First, we formalize a layerwise non-uniform training mechanism: downstream classifier weights are driven by dense cross-
entropy gradients into a rank-2 equiangular configuration before upstream
embeddings fully reorganize, and once this classifier plane forms, backpropagated feature gradients constrain
embedding motion to the same plane while weight decay suppresses orthogonal components. Second, after this subspace locking, the induced in-plane dynamics admit an
entropy-regularized transport interpretation on $S^1$; combined with modular-addition labels, this reduces
embedding formation to phase
alignment, whose minimizers are single-frequency characters of $\mathbb{Z}/P\mathbb{Z}$ and hence equal-angle points on a circle. Third, we quantify why this solution prevails over NC: a simplex ETF gains only an $O(1)$ advantage in cross-
entropy, whereas the cyclic rank-2 solution enjoys a $\Theta(K)$ advantage under Schatten or weight-decay surrogates, yielding a critical threshold $\lambda_{\mathrm{crit}} = \Theta(1/K)$. Our results explain both why classifier weights move first and why
embeddings subsequently align with them, showing that grokking on modular arithmetic is governed not by maximal separation alone but by a task-structured trade-off between separation,
symmetry, and complexity.
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Machine Learning
Heterophily-Aware Adaptive Knowledge Distillation for Hypergraph Neural Networks
Joohee Cho, David Yoon Suk Kang and Yunyong Ko
Hypergraph knowledge
distillation aims to retain the predictive performance of a hypergraph neural network (HNN) teacher while reducing inference costs through a lightweight student model. In this work, we observe that HNNs exhibit substantially lower prediction performance on heterophilic nodes connected through semantically diverse hyperedges, indicating that the reliability of teacher knowledge varies across nodes. Motivated by this observation, we propose HADES, a heterophily-aware adaptive
distillation method for hypergraph neural networks. HADES quantifies node heterophily and leverages it as an estimate of teacher reliability to modulate the transfer of teacher knowledge during
distillation. Experimental results on real-world hypergraphs demonstrate that HADES consistently improves student performance across different HNN teachers and
distillation objectives. In many cases, the resulting student models surpass the predictive performance of their teachers while achieving up to 12.3 times faster inference.
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Machine Learning
Online Learning with Recency: Algorithms for Sliding-window Streaming Multi-armed Bandits
Vladimir Braverman, Chen Wang, Liudeng Wang et al. (+1 more)
Motivated by the recency effect in online learning, we study
algorithms for single-pass *sliding-window streaming multi-armed bandits (MABs)* in this paper. In this setting, we are given $n$ arms with unknown sub-Gaussian reward distributions and a parameter $W$. The arms arrive in a single-pass stream, and only the most recent $W$ arms are considered valid. The
algorithm is required to perform pure exploration and regret minimization with limited
memory, defined as the number of stored arms. The model is a natural extension of the streaming multi-armed bandits model (without the sliding window) that has been extensively studied in recent years. We provide a comprehensive analysis of both the pure exploration and regret minimization problems with the model. For pure exploration, we prove that finding the best arm is hard with sublinear
memory while finding an approximate best arm admits an efficient
algorithm. For regret minimization, we explore a new notion of regret and give sharp
memory-regret trade-offs for any single-pass
algorithm. We complement our theoretical results with experiments, demonstrating the trade-offs between sample, regret, and
memory.
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All authors Vladimir Braverman, Chen Wang, Liudeng Wang, Samson Zhou
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from q-bio.QM
A systematic investigation of molecular encoding methods for drug property predictions across neural network and Transformer encoder-based model
Sheng-Ya Chen and Shan-Ju Yeh
Fundamental investigations into how different molecular encoding methods affect molecular property prediction remain relatively limited. In this study, we extensively examined the optimal molecular encoding methods for molecular properties prediction using two prevalent structure designs: a classical neural network model (MLP) and a
Transformer encoder-based model (MLP+TL). For molecular encoding methods, we investigated several types of fingerprints, including traditional topological fingerprints, substructure-based fingerprints, and string-based representations. These two models were trained on seven well-known molecular
datasets to evaluate different input molecular encoding methods based on evaluation metrics. On several biologically relevant classification tasks, including toxicity, mutagenicity, and side-effect prediction, our models consistently achieved average AUC values above 0.9. Rather than relying on external post-hoc explanation methods such as the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) or the Deep SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), we leveraged the model's intrinsic
attention weights as an internal interpretability signal for identifying potentially important feature. The MLP+TL model using MACCS and PubChem as input can capture chemically interpretable groups that determined the major blood-
brain barrier (BBB) permeability and mutagenicity in Salmonella typhimurium. In particular, a comparison between Morphine and Heroin highlighted the role of hydroxyl-related substructures in BBB permeability prediction, which was consistently reflected in the
attention weights. Overall, our findings provide practical guidance for selecting effective molecular encoding methods and contribute to the development of interpretable molecular informatics approaches for drug discovery.
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Machine Learning
C$^3$ache: Accelerating World Action Models with Cross Inference Chunk Cache
Weisen Zhao, Lam Nguyen, Zhicong Lu et al. (+1 more)
World Action Models (WAMs) generalize better than standard
Vision-
Language-Action (VLA) policies to novel motions and environments, because a
video-modeling objective lets them learn from abundant unlabeled
video rather than scarce labeled
robot demonstrations. This generalization is computationally expensive. To complete a task, a WAM runs over multiple inference chunks, and each chunk requires a costly denoising process. Existing acceleration methods reduce this cost by caching and reusing computation within a single chunk's denoising trajectory. Our empirical analysis reveals a substantial source of redundancy they overlook: redundancy across chunks. When a
robot executes a smooth behavior, the residuals computed at a given denoising step are strongly correlated from one chunk to the next. We introduce C$^3$ache, a training-free method that caches and reuses these residuals across inference chunks at the same denoising step. Experiments on
benchmarks with a Fast-WAM backbone show that C$^3$ache achieves up to a $2.5\times$ speedup in total wall-clock inference time, with negligible degradation in task success rate.
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All authors Weisen Zhao, Lam Nguyen, Zhicong Lu, Yuzhang Shang
Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
Ziqian Zhong, Ivgeni Segal, Ivan Bercovich et al. (+3 more)
Agent benchmarks score submissions with outcome verifiers that are typically hand-written and brittle, leaving them open to reward hacking. We audit 1,968 tasks across five terminal-
agent benchmarks and find 323 (16%) hackable by frontier models given only the task description. This corrupts both leaderboard rankings and RL training signal, yet the standard response is manual and reactive. We introduce the hacker-fixer loop, a method for building exploit-resistant verifiers without per-task manual patching. The loop alternates three LLM
agents: a hacker tries to pass the verifier without solving the task, a fixer patches the verifier to reject each discovered exploit, and a solver confirms the patched verifier still admits legitimate solutions. The loop iterates: each patch reshapes what the verifier rewards, surfacing the next exploit. We further add verifier access, and let patches transfer across tasks, to broaden the exploits the loop discovers. On KernelBench, the loop drives the attack success rate from 62% to 0% on a held-out corpus of publicly reported exploits. We also find that weaker
agents in the loop can defend against much stronger hackers: Gemini 3 Flash's loop drives the stronger Gemini 3.1 Pro and Claude Opus 4.7's attack success rate from 76% and 61% to 0% on KernelBench, and Gemini 3.1 Pro's from 39% to 17% on Terminal Bench across 77 tasks. We release Terminal Wrench (323 hackable environments, 3,632 hack trajectories) as a snapshot of the current attack surface, our patched verifiers, the exploits the loop discovered, and our implementation as a basis for future work.
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All authors Ziqian Zhong, Ivgeni Segal, Ivan Bercovich, Shashwat Saxena, Kexun Zhang, Aditi Raghunathan
Machine Learning
From inverse problems to neural operators: prediction, mechanism, and generalization of data-driven models
Conor Rowan
Scientists have historically relied on mathematical models based on differential equations to relate system inputs – forces, fluxes, or heat sources – to outputs, such as displacement, velocity, concentration, and temperature. These models rely on deep domain knowledge to determine the form of the governing differential equation, which is then calibrated with data by solving an inverse problem. In recent years, the field of Scientific Machine Learning has introduced a variety of alternative modeling strategies for physical systems. A method called Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics learns the governing equation as a sparse linear combination of terms in a user-defined library. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations construct the governing equation by taking in the state and its derivatives at the input layer of a neural network. Entirely foregoing the modeling framework of differential equations, neural operators directly learn a non-linear mapping between the system inputs and outputs. From inverse problems to neural operators, all of these modeling strategies can be conceptualized as data-driven machinery to predict a system's response over a range of inputs. It is then natural to wonder how exactly these various strategies relate to each other, and whether they can be neatly taxonomized. Drawing from the philosophical literature on scientific models, we argue that many model types have a common structure, differing only in the assumed model class of the input-output relation they define. Connecting to philosophical ideas on mechanism, and arguing that data from physical systems arises from solutions to parsimonious differential equations, we propose that only certain models are capable of mechanism discovery, and thus generalization. Our analysis is intended to unite apparently disparate modeling strategies and provide insight into their appropriate use cases.
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Machine Learning
Self-Consistent Generative Paths via Admissible Random Variational Transport
Lei Luo, Yingzhen Zhang and Jian Yang
Modern generative models often define an entire probability path from a simple prior to the data law, rather than only an endpoint map.
Diffusion models follow
stochastic denoising paths, flow matching learns transport fields, consistency and
distillation methods compress paths into one or a few steps,
adversarial models match terminal distributions, and VAEs generate through latent kernels. Existing unifying views mainly describe how such paths are constructed. We study a complementary question: when is a generated probability path self-consistent? We define a self-consistent generative path as a random fixed point of admissible local variational transport corrections. In this framework, a local correction is specified by a random variational transport operator combining a divergence or geometry term, an energy term, and a structural constraint. The framework contains random regularized optimal-transport proximal steps as a structured instance, while also allowing non-OT divergences, latent kernels,
adversarial constraints, causal discrete kernels, and terminal one-step maps. The theory yields a random fixed-point path residual (R-FPR), which measures the gap between the actual generated path and an admissible local correction. We prove well-posedness, random fixed-point existence and attraction, non-contractive existence, residual-to-generation error bounds, empirical residual concentration, proxy perturbation bounds, continuous-time limits, and operator-level generalization with model-specific corollaries. The resulting theory turns endpoint matching into path self-consistency testing and provides a residual-control principle for diagnosing failures, regularizing training, and guiding adaptive sampling across
diffusion, flow, one-step, VAE, GAN/WGAN, and autoregressive generators.
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Machine Learning
From Hazard Functions to Language Space: Cox-Supervised Distillation of Survival Risk into a Large Language Model
Nicholas I-Hsien Kuo, Blanca Gallego and Louisa Jorm
We investigate whether information about time-to-event risk estimated by a Cox proportional hazards model can be transferred into a generative large
language model. We propose a text-based survival modelling pipeline in which structured clinical
covariates are converted into text
prompts and a Qwen-based large
language model is fine-tuned to generate patient-specific survival risk using Cox model predictions as a training target. Across GBSG2, ACTG320, and WHAS500, the model achieves competitive held-out discrimination and calibration despite being trained as a text-generation task rather than with a conventional survival-analysis loss. We further analyse the geometry of the model's hidden states, where t-SNE visualisations reveal smooth risk gradients in latent space, suggesting that the model represents survival risk as a continuous structure rather than isolated risk categories. Together, these findings suggest that large
language models can internalise survival-risk structure while supporting calibrated prediction, providing a route towards time-to-event
reasoning in
language models.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML
Estimate Collapsibility of Causal Effects in Completed Partial DAGs via Strong d-Convex Hulls
Yuxin Deng, Yi Sun, Zhiming Li et al. (+1 more)
This paper proposes a collapsible method for estimating causal effects that maintains the
estimator's consistency before and after marginalization over some variables in completed partially directed acyclic graphs (CPDAGs). We first introduce the estimate collapsibility for CPDAGs and characterize the minimal collapsible sets as strong d-convex hulls. An efficient
algorithm is devised to obtain such sets in DAGs and is generalized to CPDAGs. Then, we combine the graph reduction procedure with the IDA framework. Finally, experiments and empirical analysis show the effectiveness of the collapsibility for causal estimations in CPDAGs. Code is available at https://github.com/Jamyang-D/strongly-convex.
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All authors Yuxin Deng, Yi Sun, Zhiming Li, Huaxiong Liu
Machine Learning
PAI: Preserving Amplitude Information in Representation-Based Time-Series Anomaly Detection
Kang Zhang, Wei Jian Lau, Shoushou Ren et al. (+3 more)
Representation-based time-series anomaly detection
algorithms significantly outperform other methods on diverse anomaly detection tasks. However, we notice that they suffer from a major limitation in our evaluation - their learned
embeddings are often amplitude-agnostic. Losing amplitude information can degrade performance on amplitude related anomalies, and this failure is prevalent across all existing representation-based methods. To address aforementioned issues, we propose a new anomaly scoring scheme named PAI. PAI consists of two complementary modules, a diagnostic module and a final score augmentation function. The diagnostic module compares cosine and Euclidean scoring on the same representation bank to test whether amplitude information is already captured in the learned representation. Then in final score augmentation function, PAI computes a point-wise median and MAD deviation score and a local mean-shift score-which are fused with the representation score to produce the final anomaly score. On the TSB-AD-U-Eva and TAB UV
datasets, PAI improves all four evaluated representation-based methods across every reported metric, achieving average VUS-PR gains of 98.4% and 36.8%, respectively. Among all evaluated combinations, PaAno + PAI achieves the best performance, outperforming the state-of-the-art method by 15%. Further evaluation on bootstrap confidence intervals, anomaly-type breakdowns, and a TS2Vec input-normalization ablation further support the proposed scheme. These results suggest that explicitly retaining amplitude information is important for representation-based time-series anomaly detection, which has been underemphasized in existing scoring schemes. Code is available at: https://github.com/pantheon5100/PAI
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All authors Kang Zhang, Wei Jian Lau, Shoushou Ren, Dong Lin, Joon Son Chung, Chuanhao Sun
Machine Learning
Backward Coherence and Hidden-State Stability in Recurrent Neural Networks: A Quasi-Reverse-Martingale Theory
Yuan-chin Ivan Chang
Recurrent neural networks maintain a hidden state $h_t$, but its probabilistic meaning is often unclear. We study hidden-state stability through backward coherence: the extent to which $h_t$ can be reconstructed from $h_{t+1}$ by a learned backward projector $g_\phi$. Under contraction and summable backward drift, the hidden-state sequence forms a quasi-reverse-martingale. This yields almost-sure convergence, rates under mixing, an interpretable limiting representation, finite pathwise stopping times, and a theoretical framework for time-uniform confidence sequences. Simulations support the theory. Backward-coherence regularisation reduces the empirical quasi-martingale total $\hat Q$ by $43$–$58%$, reaches stability $28$–$44%$ earlier than an unregularised RNN, and gives tracking-error recovery consistent with
geometric bounds. Additional tests confirm echo-state forgetting rates bounded by $\rho$ and verify the increment-sum tube $R_t$ with $100%$ simultaneous coverage, although $R_t$ is conservative; in practice, the defect-tail proxy $\hat Q_t$ is the more useful monitor. The backward-coherence loss is also equivalent to minimising a Kullback–Leibler divergence in a Gaussian backward model, linking the method to variational inference. Extensions cover $\phi$-mixing inputs, change-point tracking, and finite-sample concentration. Three real-data studies further validate the approach. On PhysioNet 2012 ICU data, the Reverse Martingale RNN (RMRNN) matches RNN mortality-prediction AUC while reaching stable representations 13 hours earlier. On FRED-MD, it reduces one-month-ahead forecast error by about fourfold under concept drift. On UCI Human Activity Recognition, it maintains lower post-transition tracking error with
geometric decay. The guarantees apply under the stated assumptions; universality is not claimed.
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Machine Learning
PROBE-Web: An Interactive System for Probing Evaluation Landscapes of Knowledge Graph Completion Models
Sooho Moon and Yunyong Ko
Knowledge graph completion (KGC) models are commonly evaluated using rank-based metrics such as MRR and Hits@K, despite different users often requiring different evaluation perspectives. In this demo, we present PROBE-Web, an interactive system for probing diverse evaluation landscapes for KGC models. PROBE-Web enables users to flexibly evaluate KGC models by adjusting two critical perspectives: (P1) predictive sharpness and (P2) popularity-bias robustness. Through a user-friendly GUI, users easily evaluate multiple KGC models and analyze their strengths and weaknesses. PROBE-Web provides four key functionalities: (1) conventional evaluation toolkit, (2) flexible perspective-aware evaluation, (3) explainable case studies, and (4) evaluation landscape exploration. We believe that PROBE-Web can help users better understand KGC models aligning with their objectives.
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Machine Learning
Generalized Rank-based Evaluation for Knowledge Graph Completion: Perspectives, Framework, and Analyses
Sooho Moon, Jian Kang and Yunyong Ko
Knowledge graph completion (KGC) aims to predict missing facts from an observed knowledge graph (KG), playing a crucial role in a wide range of real-world applications such as drug discovery, recommender systems, and
retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Although numerous KGC models have been proposed, the evaluation of KGC remains underexplored, despite its critical role in reliably assessing model performance and selecting appropriate models for real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce two important perspectives for KGC evaluation that are overlooked by existing evaluation metrics, (P1) predictive sharpness and (P2) popularity-bias robustness. To address both perspectives, we propose a generalized evaluation framework, PROBE, which consists of a rank
transformer (RT) that estimates the score of each prediction based on a desired level of predictive sharpness and a rank aggregator (RA) that determines the final evaluation score by aggregating all prediction scores according to a desired level of popularity-bias robustness. We theoretically analyze PROBE by defining six key properties for reliable KGC evaluation and prove that PROBE satisfies all the properties, while existing metrics fail to satisfy some. In particular, due to the open-world nature of KGs, an evaluation metric should preserve the relative performance of KGC models even when only incomplete facts are observed. We show that PROBE better maintains such consistency, providing a more reliable estimate of intrinsic model performance than existing metrics. Extensive experiments with six KGC models on six real-world KGs reveal that existing metrics may over- or under-estimate model performance depending on different evaluation perspectives, whereas PROBE enables a more comprehensive, flexible, and consistent evaluation of KGC models.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
Oversight Has a Capacity: Calibrating Agent Guards to a Subjective, Fatiguing Human
Emre Turan
As LLM
agents begin to take real, irreversible actions (shell commands, file edits, deploys), the standard safety pattern is a human-in-the-loop approval gate: risky actions pause and wait for a person. We argue the gate is the easy part; the hard part is the judgment - which actions to stop - which the field evaluates against two false assumptions: that there is a ground-truth notion of "risky," and that the human reviewer is a perfect, infinitely-available oracle. On a hand-labeled set of 125 adversarially-weighted
agent actions we show that (i) reviewers only moderately agree on what is risky (Fleiss' kappa = 0.52), so there is no single correct label; (ii) framing the guard as selective classification under asymmetric cost makes its operating limits measurable, and on hard inputs the guard cannot safely auto-decide; and (iii) when the reviewer is modeled as endogenous (fatiguing as escalation load grows), realized safety becomes an inverted-U in the escalation rate: more human oversight can make a system less safe, and the safety-optimal guard escalates below full escalation - a setting a load-aware policy also uses to resist a flooding attack that slips a malicious action past a fatigued reviewer.
Agent oversight, framed this way, is not only a classification problem but a resource-allocation one: human
attention is finite, and the guard's escalation policy spends it. We claim none of these mechanisms as novel - fatigue-aware learning-to-defer (FALCON), cost-sensitive deferral under workload constraints (DeCCaF), trajectory-level guarding, and reviewer-fatigue/flooding attacks are all prior art we cite. Our contribution is an open-source
agent-oversight system that operationalizes and measures them in the LLM-
agent action-gating setting, turning "is my guard good?" from a guess into a curve. The inverted-U and the flooding attack are modeling results that motivate a human study.
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Machine Learning
Synthetic but Not Realistic: The Evaluation Challenge in Generative Modelling for Structured Electronic Medical Records
Nicholas I-Hsien Kuo, Blanca Gallego and Louisa Jorm
Synthetic healthcare data are widely proposed as
privacy-preserving substitutes for real patient data, yet their evaluation remains dominated by statistical similarity and predictive performance that do not reflect clinical validity. We introduce a multi-dimensional evaluation framework grounded in epidemiology, assessing descriptive fidelity, clinical utility, and structural validity, corresponding to descriptive, predictive, and causal questions. We evaluate four representative generative paradigms - GAN-based, VAE-boosted,
diffusion-based, and masked modelling - using
PRIME-CVD, a 50,000-person cohort with known ground-truth structure. While all models reproduce marginal distributions, none simultaneously preserve subgroup structure, effect estimates, and dependency structure. Notably, models with strong distributional fidelity can exhibit poor calibration and distorted relationships, leading to unreliable inference. These results show that current evaluation practices can overestimate synthetic data quality and motivate domain-informed assessment based on the ability to support valid clinical and scientific conclusions.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.AS
Few-shot Class-variable Incremental Audio Classification via Prototype Adaptation and Pseudo Class-variable Training
Yanxiong Li, Guoqing Chen, Qianqian Li et al. (+1 more)
In the task of few-shot class-incremental audio classification, the number of classes is assumed to always increase without considering the possibility of decrease. However, the number of classes generally increases or decreases in practice. In this paper, we investigate a problem of Few-shot Class-variable Incremental Audio Classification (FCIAC), in which the number of classes increases or decreases. We propose a FCIAC method using prototype adaptation and pseudo class-variable training. The model in our method consists of an encoder and a classifier. The classifier is initialized by a class-variable prototype adaptation network, whose structure dynamically changes with the change of classes. In addition, we design a pseudo class-variable training strategy to enhance the model's adaptability to changing classes. Experiments on three public
datasets show that our method exceeds previous methods in average accuracy. The code is at: https://github.com/cgq2971-afk/FCIAC.
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All authors Yanxiong Li, Guoqing Chen, Qianqian Li, Sen Huang
Machine Learning
Cheap Reward Hacking Detection
Iván Belenky, Joaquín Itria and Steven Johns
A small
transformer encoder is trained to map Terminal-Wrench trajectories onto a unit sphere where
embedding distance approximates the $L_1$ distance between reward and metadata signals. A linear probe on top of that
embedding detects reward hacking on the cleaned test split with AUC $0.9467$ and TPR@5%FPR $0.8296$, matching the TW sanitized LLM-as-judge AUC ($0.9510$ on the cleaned split) and exceeding its TPR@5%FPR ($0.7130$ vs $0.8296$) on the same information condition, at roughly four orders of magnitude lower per-trajectory cost. The encoder is not a pure behavior reader: stripping natural-
language reasoning from its input at probe time drops AUC to $0.6213$.
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Machine Learning
Diffuse AI Control on Fuzzy Tasks
Mikhail Terekhov, Caglar Gulcehre, Vivek Hebbar et al. (+1 more)
AI models deployed in critical domains, such as AI safety research, may subtly sabotage our efforts due to misalignment. Diffuse AI Control is a subfield of AI safety concerned with mitigating risks from AI sabotage distributed over long deployment horizons (diffuse threats). These risks are particularly pernicious on fuzzy tasks, i.e. tasks which are hard to grade or require intuition. To understand diffuse threats on fuzzy tasks, we introduce a framework that considers AI control as an
adversarial game between a blue team and a red team. The blue team uses a weak trusted model to construct a weak score against which they would train a strong, potentially subversive model to remove the subversion propensity if it were present. The red team then tries to find model behaviors that are rated highly by the weak score, and thus might not be trained out, but actually correspond to poor performance. We test our framework on the task of writing experimental proposals for research questions from recent ML papers. We use a
language model with access to the original paper as a proxy "ground-truth" scorer. Our red team discovers subversive behaviors using multi-objective evolutionary
prompt optimization. We show that Opus~4.6 can write proposals that are worse according to the ground truth proxy than those of GPT-OSS-20B, while the weak scorer rates them as highly as the best proposals from Opus 4.6. We then propose an
adversarial optimization
algorithm for the blue team that discovers more robust
prompts for the weak model. This
algorithm produces a blue team
prompt that our red team optimization fails to exploit. Code is available at https://github.com/MikhailTerekhov/diffuse_control.
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All authors Mikhail Terekhov, Caglar Gulcehre, Vivek Hebbar, Joe Benton