Machine Learning
Papers
Fresh from arXiv, typeset properly. Highlighted words trade on the market.
Wednesday 3 June
Efficient multimodal foundation models often rely on manually designed token-reduction operators, such as pruning, merging, pooling, and adaptive reweighting. Although these operators appear different, we show that they can be interpreted as distinct regimes of a shared operator space. Based on this view, we introduce Efficient Operator Search, a differentiable framework that jointly searches where to reduce tokens, how many tokens to retain, and how reduced token information should be processed. The proposed search space parameterizes layer activation, retention budget, and operator behavior, while the search policy optimizes task performance under one-sided budget and cost constraints. This formulation recovers representative hand-designed baselines as special cases and further discovers hybrid operators beyond isolated manual designs. Experiments on multimodal benchmarks show that the searched operators achieve competitive accuracy-efficiency trade-offs, especially under aggressive visual-token reduction. These results suggest that efficient multimodal inference can be reframed from manual operator design to differentiable operator search.
Machine Learning
STRIDE: Training Data Attribution via Sparse Recovery from Subset Perturbations
Training Data Attribution (TDA) seeks to trace a model's predictions back to its training data. The gold standard for TDA relies on causal interventions, observing how a model changes when data is added or removed, but repeated retraining is computationally challenging for Large Language Models (LLMs). Consequently, most approaches approximate this effect in the parameter space using gradients. However, tracking gradients across billions of parameters is not only prohibitively expensive but relies on local approximations. In this work, we propose a shift: rather than estimating parameter changes, we model the functional effect of training data in the activation space. We introduce STRIDE (Steering-based Training Data Influence Decomposition), a framework that formulates TDA as a sparse recovery problem in the spirit of compressive sensing. STRIDE learns lightweight "steering operators" that mimic the behavioral shift caused by training on data subsets. By measuring how these operators perturb test predictions, we recover individual training example influences via sparse linear decomposition. STRIDE achieves state-of-the-art for LLM pre-training attribution while being an order of magnitude ($13\times$) faster than previous art. We further validate its practical utility through downstream applications including data selection, data contamination, and qualitative analysis.
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Machine Learning
Reinforcement Learning from Rich Feedback with Distributional DAgger
Reasoning models have advanced rapidly, but the dominant reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) recipe remains surprisingly narrow: sample many responses and reward each with a single bit indicating whether the final answer is correct. Yet many settings provide rich feedback, including execution traces, tool outputs, expert corrections, and model self-evaluations. We study how to use such feedback through a distributional variant of the classic imitation learning algorithm DAgger, where the learner has local access to an expert distribution on states visited by the current policy. This yields a simple forward cross-entropy objective that admits a blackbox expert and whose sequence-level gradient {conduct rich credit assignment by propagating} future expert-student disagreement back to earlier decisions. We show that prior RL with self-distillation objectives based on reverse KL or Jensen-Shannon fail to guarantee monotonic policy improvement: even when the expert has higher reward, their updates may increase probability on worse actions. In contrast, we show that forward cross-entropy admits monotonic policy improvement and enjoys guarantees on regret. We further show that our objective optimizes a lower bound on teacher-weighted likelihood of success, leading to improved Pass@N. Empirically, our approach, DistIL, improves over RLVR and RL with self-distillation baselines across a variety of domains: scientific reasoning, coding, and solving hard mathematical problems.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV
An Open-Source Two-Stage Computer Vision Pipeline for Fine-Grained Vehicle Classification using Vision Transformers
Vehicle body type is a significant determinant of cyclist injury severity in overtaking crashes, yet automated tools for classifying vehicles into injury-risk-relevant categories from naturalistic roadway video do not exist in the open literature. Standard object detection benchmarks provide only coarse vehicle labels (car, truck, bus, motorcycle), while existing fine-grained recognition systems are trained on controlled imagery and lack evaluation for deployment robustness across recording sites. This paper presents an open-source two-stage computer vision pipeline combining a pre-trained RT-DETR detector for coarse vehicle localization with a fine-tuned Vision Transformer (ViT-Base/16) for six-category body-type classification: passenger car, SUV, pickup truck, minivan, large van, and commercial truck. A confidence-based abstention mechanism withholds Stage 2 predictions when softmax output falls below 0.60, producing unknown labels rather than silent misclassifications. Evaluated on 3,805 annotated overtaking events from a bicycle-lane corridor in Ann Arbor, Michigan (in-distribution), the pipeline achieved 0.94 accuracy with per-class F1 scores from 0.91 (minivan) to 0.97 (SUV). On an independent out-of-distribution evaluation of 311 events from an open cycling dataset without retraining, accuracy was 0.89. Three of four well-represented categories maintained F1 at or above 0.90 under domain shift. The largest degradation was observed for minivan (F1 = 0.72), driven by abstention rate rising from 2.4% to 25.0% rather than active misclassification, consistent with the mechanism propagating genuine model uncertainty. The full pipeline, including inference scripts, training code, evaluation utilities, and model weights, is released as open-source software to support reproducibility and reuse across roadside video archives and cycling safety research.
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Machine Learning
Failed Reasoning Traces Tell You What Is Fixable (But Not by Reading Them)
When post-trained language models fail on reasoning problems, the common test-time-scaling response is to spend more compute on additional attempts, and the failed traces play no further role. We argue this discards a crucial signal; some failures come from unlucky sampling, where more rollouts help, while others are structural and resist resampling regardless of budget. We propose that failed traces encode recoverability structure: the inference-time signature of which test-time interventions can rescue a given failure. Three problem-level trajectory features, derived from the structure of available interventions, recover this structure from the distributional signature of failed rollouts, not their text. They cluster failures into stable regimes, characterize the failure topography of different post-training methods ($84.3{\pm}4.3\%$ accuracy, $+20\%$ over a majority-class baseline), and support a training-free routing rule that lifts rescue by $+12.2\%$ on the deployment-relevant Steerable-Hard subset (failures where retry is insufficient and a bounded intervention is reachable). The features and the routing rule transfer across two cross-family probes. The same three features thus convert failed traces from discarded data into a diagnostic object, supporting test-time routing and post-training analysis without training-time or weight-space access.
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Machine Learning
BBOmix: A Tabular Benchmark for Hyperparameter Optimization of Unsupervised Biological Representation Learning
The rapid advancement of high-throughput sequencing has led to large, high-dimensional omics datasets. Deep unsupervised learning architectures, particularly Autoencoders (AEs), are increasingly used for dimensionality reduction and representation learning in this domain. However, AEs are highly sensitive to architectural choices and hyperparameters, and unsupervised optimization typically relies on reconstruction loss, which may be a poor proxy for downstream utility. Exhaustive hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is computationally expensive, leading researchers to frequently rely on suboptimal default configurations. To democratize access to large-scale unsupervised HPO research, we introduce $\textbf{BBOmix}$, the first open-source tabular benchmark for unsupervised representation learning on real-world biological data. Our benchmark includes 105,000 evaluations across four AE architectures and seven multi-omics modalities from the TCGA and SCHC datasets. We quantify the correlation between reconstruction loss and downstream task performance and provide an extensive evaluation of state-of-the-art single-fidelity, multi-fidelity, and transfer learning HPO methods, establishing a rigorous baseline for future research in unsupervised biological representation learning.
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Machine Learning
Generating Financial Time Series by Matching Random Convolutional Features
Generating realistic financial time series is challenging as training data is often limited to a single historical path. With such scarce data, overfitting is hard to avoid, especially under adversarial training where a trained discriminator can memorize the training samples. To mitigate this, recent approaches train generators to minimize the discrepancy between untrained feature representations of real and generated time series. In these works, the feature maps are based on path signatures, which can fail to capture relevant time series properties at tractable truncation depths. In this work, we instead train generators by matching random convolutional features of real and generated time series. Existing random convolutional feature maps, such as Rocket and Hydra, have been shown to provide informative representations of real-world time series, but cannot supervise generative models because they are non-differentiable. We introduce SOCK (SOft Competing Kernels), a fully differentiable random convolutional feature map, suited to train generative time series models. We show that generators trained by matching random SOCK features outperform signature and diffusion baselines on most evaluation metrics across a wide range of small-sample financial datasets. We further demonstrate SOCK's expressiveness on two-sample hypothesis testing and time series classification tasks, where SOCK matches or outperforms existing unsupervised feature maps.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Activation-Based Active Learning for In-Context Learning: Challenges and Insights
Deep active learning has previously been explored for LLM in-context sample selection, but not with methods that utilise recent advances in understanding of transformer activations. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that model activations could provide a fine-grained signal to optimise the selection of in-context examples. We present a comprehensive analysis of MLP activation-based deep active learning methods applied to in-context learning, including how different attention masking strategies impact active learning across diverse classification and generative datasets, using both Llama-3.2-3B and Qwen2.5-3B base models. However, we find a negative result: MLP and embedding layer outputs, viewed through the lenses of massive activations or the first four moments, do not correlate with example quality or task performance. Specifically, the absolute Spearman correlation coefficient is at most 0.33 for all tasks and models we tested, showing that such activation-based sampling should not be used for in-context learning. We hypothesise that this may be due to superposition, whereby models represent more features than they have dimensionality, suggesting that methods like Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) may be a promising future direction.
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Machine Learning
Deep Embedded Multiplicative DMD for Algebra-Preserving Koopman Learning
Koopman theory turns nonlinear dynamics into a linear spectral problem. In computation, however, everything depends on a hard finite-dimensional choice: the observables must be expressive, nearly invariant under the dynamics, and, ideally, compatible with composition. Deep Koopman methods learn flexible coordinates, whereas structure-preserving methods enforce operator identities on fixed dictionaries. We combine these ideas by introducing Deep Embedded Multiplicative Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DeepMDMD), a method that learns a latent space and a partition of it, while enforcing the Koopman product rule as an exact algebraic constraint. Training alternates between an exact multiplicative operator update and a differentiable latent-clustering step that promotes Koopman closure. The result is a finite transition map on learned latent cells. Its nonzero spectrum lies on the unit circle, its dictionary is shaped by the dynamics rather than by ambient geometry, and forecasts are made in latent coordinates before being decoded to physical space. Across Hamiltonian, chaotic, and fluid examples, DeepMDMD learns dictionaries that are far more compact and dynamically coherent than those produced by geometric MDMD partitions. It reduces spectral pollution, reveals richer continuous-spectrum structure, and gives stable forecasts under severe noise. In high-dimensional flows, including a 158,624-dimensional cylinder wake and a noisy $Re=20,000$ lid-driven cavity, it preserves coherent structures and long-time spectral statistics where state-space MDMD fails. These results suggest a practical rule for Koopman learning: learn the coordinates, constrain the algebra.
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Machine Learning
Towards Efficient and Evidence-grounded Mobility Prediction with LLM-Driven Agent
Individual-level mobility prediction is central to urban simulation, transportation planning, and policy analysis. Supervised sequence models achieve strong accuracy but require task-specific training and offer limited decision-level transparency. Recent LLM-based methods improve interpretability, yet mostly rely on static prompts and single-pass inference, limiting their ability to seek additional evidence when mobility signals are weak or conflicting. We propose \method{}, a training-free LLM-driven agent framework that formulates next-location prediction as adaptive evidence-controlled decision making. \method{} resolves routine cases through a fast path based on historical regularity, while ambiguous cases trigger iterative tool use over recent trajectories, historical behavior, stay-move likelihood, and geographical evidence. Across three mobility datasets, AgentMob achieves the strongest overall performance among training-free LLM-based methods, with GPT-5.4 reaching 71.42% Acc@1 on BW, 33.14% on YJMob100K, and 33.50% on Shanghai ISP. On BW non-fast-path cases, the LLM controller improves Acc@1 from 30.65% to 48.62% over a same-tool statistical baseline, showing that its main benefit lies in resolving ambiguous predictions through adaptive evidence gathering. Our code is available at https://github.com/Unknown-zoo/AgentMob.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CR
Preserving Data Privacy in Learning Causal Structure with Fully Homomorphic Encryption
Preserving data privacy is an important topic in structural data management and data mining. However, the issue of privacy leakage in distributed causal structure learning is a persistent challenge, especially in cases where data transmission and computation are required. In this paper, we propose a method based on fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) that performs calculations on ciphertexts, keeping data encrypted in transition and computation. Nevertheless, adopting FHE to causal structure learning is challenging due to the high computation cost and limited support on division as well as logarithm operations in FHE. To tackle this challenge, we propose a series of novel techniques including (i) circuit simplification for better efficiency, (ii) approximation of division and logarithm through Newton-Raphson Reciprocal and Taylor expansion, and (iii) a batching technique with SIMD-acceleration to enhance the whole learning process. Additionally, our method can be easily extended beyond FHE by demonstration of its portability to support differential privacy. Empirical results show that our method achieves high consistency and comparable causal structure with the plaintext version in the datasets tested. Last, our method is efficient and practical to complete learning causal structures in tens of minutes even under the privacy protection of FHE.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.GR
Geometry Gaussians: Decoupling Appearance and Geometry in Gaussian Splatting
After the success of 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) for novel view synthesis, many works have explored how to also use it for geometric surface representation. However, extracting accurate geometric information directly from 3DGS remains challenging and can often reduce the appearance rendering quality. In this work, we show that 3DGS in its default form is inheritedly unsuited to represent texture and geometry at the same time, by training with complete ground-truth texture and geometry information. We also propose a simple solution by applying a single additional geometry opacity parameter to each splat, together with an optional transparency-curated optimization pipeline. Our experiments, both with ground-truth and vision foundation model geometric input, show that this change leads to improved rendering and geometry performance on a wide variety of dataset, and especially complex scenes with transparent objects benefit significantly from our method.
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Machine Learning
Graph Set Transformer
We introduce the Graph Set Transformer (GST), a neural network architecture for learning on sets of graphs, designed for tasks in which per-element predictions depend on set-wide context as well as local structure. Existing architectures, including DeepSets and SetTransformer, require pre-encoded graph embeddings from a separate GNN, creating a bottleneck between feature extraction and set-level contextualisation. In contrast, GST interleaves node-level feature propagation and cross-graph contextual modelling at every layer, fusing the two levels of information through a gating mechanism. We evaluate GST on a controlled synthetic suite designed to isolate set-conditional structural reasoning and on three real-data benchmarks spanning per-atom reaction-centre identification, reaction yield prediction, and image classification. Under matched parameter budgets, GST performs better than the baselines across these settings. An architectural ablation strongly suggests that the interleaving of local and set context contributes substantially to this advantage.
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Machine Learning
RePercENT: Scaling Disentangled Representation Learning Beyond Two Modalities
To leverage the full potential of multimodal data, we need representations that go beyond the state-of-the-art alignment and fusion approaches and exploit all cross-modal interactions without sacrificing modality-specific information. Learning disentangled representations is a principled way to identify the underlying shared and unique factors that are hidden in observational data. However, while multimodal disentanglement is a compelling paradigm, existing methods are largely confined to the two-modality regime due to its inherent scalability bottleneck. To address this, we propose RePercENT, a self-supervised framework designed to surpass these limitations and unlocks scalable pairwise disentanglement beyond two modalities. Through a multimodal `plug-and-play' architecture, our approach operates directly on pre-extracted embeddings, eliminating the need for extensive joint pre-training while making no assumptions regarding the underlying modalities or foundation model backbones. Moreover, we introduce a joint optimization objective for simultaneously deriving the shared and unique components, and provide formal theoretical guarantees that characterize the optimality of our solution. Spanning modalities from images and videos to clinical reports and omics, and tasks from sentiment analysis to tumor classification, RePercENT successfully recovers disentangled components while maintaining competitive performance and significantly reducing computational complexity.
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Machine Learning
Identifying Gems from Roman RAPIDly
The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman), set for launch as early as September 2026, will conduct wide-field infrared imaging surveys with unprecedented spatial resolution and cadence, enabling the discovery of millions of astronomical transients. Hence, it is necessary to have automated pipelines for generating alerts in place so that the telescope can begin discovering reliable transients and variable objects soon after it is launched. However, no real Roman data currently exist, making the development of such pipelines difficult. In this work, we present a machine learning model $RuBR$ and a general methodology for distinguishing genuine transient and variable detections from spurious (bogus) detections within the RAPID pipeline. In particular, we present three models using this methodology: $RuBR_{comb}$ trained and tested on combined locally injected and OpenUniverse2024 transients, $RuBR_{loc}$ trained on locally injected transients and tested on OpenUniverse2024 transients, and $RuBR_{DA}$ that combines locally injected transients with a fraction of OpenUniverse2024 transients in domain-adaptation mode for training. This paves the way for strategies to adapt the $RuBR_{comb}$ model to real observations in the absence of any ground-truth labels during the early phases of the Roman mission. While the image differencing pipeline continues to be improved, our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and its promise for robust real-bogus classification in the Roman era.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.SD
FoeGlass: Simple In-Context Learning Is Enough for Red Teaming Audio Deepfake Detectors
Audio deepfake detection (ADD) models are critical for countering the malicious use of text-to-speech (TTS) models. Evaluating and strengthening ADD models requires developing datasets that span the space of generated audio and highlight high-error regions. Existing dataset development strategies face two challenges: (i) manual collection, and (ii) inefficient discovery of blind spots in the ADD models. To address these challenges, we propose FoeGlass, the first black-box automated red-teaming method for ADDs, which effectively discovers ADD failure modes in the space of generated audio underexplored by state-of-the-art deepfake benchmarks. FoeGlass uses the in-context learning capabilities of an LLM to explore the input space of a TTS model, generating audio samples that fool the target ADD using only black-box access to all components. By using a carefully designed context based on diversity measurements, FoeGlass mitigates the common problem of mode collapse in automated red-teaming systems. Empirical evaluations on several open-source ADD and TTS models demonstrate that data generated from FoeGlass substantially improves the false negative rates over unconditional sampling baselines and recent spoofing datasets by up to 94%, while requiring no manual supervision. Furthermore, we show that the attacks generated by FoeGlass are transferable across different target ADDs, demonstrating its broad applicability and ease of use for the automated red teaming of ADD systems. Finally, fine-tuning ADD models on FoeGlass-generated samples notably enhances the robustness of the detectors (up 41%).
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI
AutoLab: Can Frontier Models Solve Long-Horizon Auto Research and Engineering Tasks?
Scientific and engineering progress is fundamentally a long-horizon iterative process: proposing changes, running experiments, measuring outcomes, and continuously refining artifacts. Yet existing benchmarks for frontier models primarily evaluate either single-turn responses or short-horizon agent trajectories, failing to capture the challenges of sustained iterative improvement over extended time horizons. To address this gap, we introduce AutoLab, a new benchmark for ultra long-horizon closed-loop optimization. AutoLab consists of 36 realistic, expert-curated tasks spanning four diverse domains: system optimization, puzzle & challenge, model development, and CUDA kernel optimization. Each task begins with a correct but deliberately suboptimal baseline and challenges agents to improve it within a strict wall-clock budget. Evaluating 17 state-of-the-art models reveals the dominant predictor of success is not the quality of an agent's initial attempt, but its persistence in repeatedly benchmarking, editing, and incorporating empirical feedback. While claude-opus-4.6 exhibits strong long-horizon optimization capabilities, most frontier models, including several proprietary ones, either terminate prematurely or exhaust their budgets with minimal progress. These results underscore the importance of time awareness and persistent iteration in autonomous agents. We open-source the full benchmark, evaluation harness, and task artifacts, to accelerate research toward truly capable long-horizon agents.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL
Fast & Faithful Function Vectors
Function vectors (FVs) are task representations elicited during in-context learning that can be used to steer Large Language Models (LLMs). However, design choices in their formulation remain underexplored. In this work, we study the impact of varying FV definitions for instructions along two degrees of freedom: attention head selection and steering. For head selection, using gradient-based attributions with Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) substantially improves efficiency as well as accuracy. For FV steering, applying it in a distributed manner yields a higher accuracy compared to simple aggregation. Our code is publicly available.
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Machine Learning
Learning What Not to Impute: An Uncertainty-Aware Diffusion Framework for Meaningful Missingness
Missing value imputation is a fundamental task in machine learning, with most existing methods assuming that all missing entries correspond to unobserved regular values. In many real-world datasets, however, missingness may arise from two distinct sources: some entries are meaningfully missing (intrinsically absent and semantically valid), while others are missing due to the observation process and should be imputed. We formalize this distinction as a selective imputation problem, where the goal is to jointly infer which missing entries should be preserved and which should be recovered. To address this challenge, we propose Diff-Joint, a diffusion-based framework that jointly models tabular data together with a latent missingness mask. The method alternates between conditional sampling and uncertainty-aware aggregation to iteratively refine both imputed values and missingness labels. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that Diff-Joint effectively identifies meaningfully missing entries while achieving competitive imputation accuracy and improved downstream task performance.
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Machine Learning
RIDE: An Open Dataset and Benchmark for Train Delay Prediction
Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. To address this gap, we introduce RIDE, an open dataset and benchmark for train delay prediction built at nationwide scale over the Belgian railway network. RIDE covers 94.5M train events, 3.6M journeys, and 35.7M weather records from 2023 to 2025. It is organized as a layered data pipeline from raw railway and weather sources to two public releases: a reusable intermediate relational dataset and model-ready benchmark datasets. The benchmark standardizes the prediction task and the training and testing data. It also provides a unified evaluation protocol that supports direct comparison across models. Using this framework, we provide the first comprehensive comparative evaluation of non-learning, statistical learning, and deep learning models. We show that learning-based methods clearly outperform non-learning models, with graph neural networks achieving the best mean performance, while the strongest learning-based models remain relatively close to one another. Beyond aggregate mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), the framework also provides breakdowns by prediction horizon and delay change, enabling more detailed analysis of model behavior across forecasting regimes.
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Machine Learning
FLAGG: Flexible Autoregressive Graph Generation
The Deep Graph Generation's panorama spans two extremes: one-shot and sequential models. The former generates nodes and edges jointly, while the latter samples them autoregressively. Each method performs better in different graph domains depending on size and topology, but neither is applicable to all graph categories. For instance, one-shot methods struggle with generating large graphs, while sequential methods underperform on smaller graphs. A possible way to overcome these limitations is to flexibly combine the two methods in a unique system. In this work, we propose the FLAGG (Flexible Autoregressive Graph Generation) framework, which sequentially generates portions of graphs with one-shot models. FLAGG can apply any one-shot model to make it autoregressive, allowing flexibility in choosing the sequential policy. This policy is specified through a stochastic node removal process, which an Insertion Model learns to reverse. We evaluate FLAGG with the DiGress one-shot model on several data sets of different graph sizes and domains. We show that the approach outperforms both one-shot and autoregressive baselines in terms of sampling quality.
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Machine Learning
Graph Cascades: Contagion-Based Mesoscopic Rewiring for Structure-Aware Graph Machine Learning
We introduce Graph Cascades, a mesoscopic rewiring strategy for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Graph Transformers (GTs) that captures intermediate-scale graph structure beyond purely local edges or fully global attention. Using contagion-based diffusion processes, Graph Cascades constructs, in O(|V|+|E|) time, an auxiliary graph where node pairs supported by repeated multi-hop reinforcement are promoted to direct neighbors. We theoretically characterize when reinforcement-based rewiring helps: sufficient conditions under which reinforcement-based edge selection is more label-aligned than direct adjacency, an SBM witness in which two-hop reinforcement is perfectly homophilic, and a formalization of mesoscopic connectivity via graph effective resistance. Empirically, across node-classification benchmarks, Graph Cascades improves multiple GNN and sparse-GT backbones, with the most reliable gains observed on heterophilic and moderate- to high-degree homophilic graphs. The theoretical conditions also identify regimes where mesoscopic rewiring is unlikely to be beneficial – low-degree regular graphs and graphs with structural bottlenecks – and these predictions match the observed failures. We additionally observe tight correlations between performance and structural properties in the rewired graphs.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.DS
Learning Control-Affine Reduced-Order Models via Autoencoders
We present in this paper a framework for the identification of control-affine reduced-order models (ROMs). The proposed method utilizes autoencoders (AEs) to transform the high-dimensional states, and potentially the high-dimensional inputs, into reduced latent ones suitable for control-affine state-space dynamics. This is achieved by simultaneous training of the AE and the state-space model. In addition, we extend the discrete ROM formulation to a sequence-based model, which processes state and input histories to improve prediction accuracy while preserving the control-affine structure. We motivate our framework by applying feedback linearization to the derived models, and we present guidelines for its efficient use. The proposed framework is assessed on two numerical examples and its performance is compared to a baseline model, where the AE identifies a latent space with linear state-space dynamics. The assessment involves evaluating the prediction accuracy of the ROM on test data and its effectiveness in controlling the system to a desired state or trajectory.
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Machine Learning
In-Context Graphical Inference
Marginal inference in discrete graphical models forces a choice between exactness and scalability: exact algorithms are intractable for high-treewidth graphs, while iterative approximations (Belief Propagation, variational methods) sacrifice convergence guarantees on frustrated topologies. We argue that this dichotomy stems from a mismatched inductive bias: iterative methods abandon the sequential elimination structure that makes exact inference correct. We introduce In-Context Graphical Inference (ICG-I), an autoregressive Graph Transformer that restores this structure by mimicking Variable Elimination with learned, Tensor- Train-compressed intermediate factors, paired with a Dirichlet output layer and Weighted Conformal Prediction for calibrated, distribution-free coverage guarantees under topological shift. We prove that TT compression errors propagate at most lincarly through the autoregressive chain, that the Dirichlet-Multinomial loss is a proper scoring rule, and that WCP maintains coverage with a quantifiable degradation under estimated density ratios. We conducted intensive experiments to evaluate ICG-I and achieved state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks. ICG-I reduces MAE from 0.041 (best baseline) to 0.020 on standard instances and achieves 0.048 on N=500 frustrated spin glasses where BP diverges entirely.
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Machine Learning
Validity Threats for Foundation Model Research
Controlled experiments are the backbone of machine learning research, but at the scale of modern foundation models, they have become prohibitively expensive. Instead, the community increasingly relies on research strategies that approximate the ideal experiment at a fraction of the cost: proxy experiments and scaling laws, observational studies with publicly available models, and single-run designs that leverage variation within individual training runs. In this work, we argue that there is no free lunch when approximating large-scale experiments on a compute budget. Specifically, savings in compute come at the cost of validity threats – hidden and sometimes untestable assumptions that, when violated, can invalidate research claims. To help navigate such threats, we propose an evaluation framework that casts foundation model research as a causal inference problem. Within this framework, we evaluate different research strategies through four types of validity adapted from the empirical social sciences – statistical, internal, external, and construct validity. We find that each strategy comes with a characteristic validity profile: proxy experiments trade external and construct validity for statistical and internal validity; observational studies face confounding and effect heterogeneity; and single-run designs are strained by interference between treated units. This analysis reveals several validity threats that have received insufficient attention in the literature. Overall, our evaluation framework provides researchers with a practical toolkit for scrutinizing validity threats in foundation model research~designs.
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Machine Learning
Invariant Gradient Alignment for Robust Reasoning Distillation
Large language models (LLMs) suffer from shortcut learning: they systematically fail on out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs whose semantic surface differs from training data, even when the logical structure is identical. This undermines knowledge distillation pipelines that transfer chain-of-thought reasoning to smaller students. We introduce Invariant Gradient Alignment (IGA), a training framework that aligns gradient updates across semantically diverse but logically isomorphic examples via three innovations: (i) Logical Isomer Sets, groups of problems sharing identical logical structure across distinct semantic domains (mathematics, medicine, law, science); (ii) a differentiable Continuous Gradient Conflict Mask, that suppresses parameter dimensions with high cross-domain gradient variance while preserving invariant directions; and (iii) a truncated SVD projection of the masked gradient back onto the LoRA low-rank manifold, maintaining parameter efficiency throughout. Theoretically, IGA yields tighter OOD generalization bounds than ERM, scaling with the number of isomer domains, and converges at the standard SGD rate under mild regularity. Empirically, IGA outperforms eight baselines across four benchmarks with accuracy gains up to 14.3 pp over ERM-SFT and a Logical Consistency Score of 0.031 versus 0.142 – a fourfold improvement in representational invariance.
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Machine Learning
Enhancing the MADDPG Algorithm for Multi-Agent Learning via Action Inference and Importance Sampling
We investigate multi-agent deep reinforcement learning and propose two enhancements to the Multi-Agent Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (MADDPG) algorithm. First, we introduce a novel Action Inference mechanism that enables each agent to predict other agents' intended actions, thereby improving the accuracy and stability of its own policy. Second, we apply an importance sampling strategy, using geometric distribution, in the replay buffer to prioritize more recent and informative experiences, which helps mitigate the non-stationarity inherent in multi-agent environments. We evaluate both modifications on the discrete-action Predator-Prey task provided by the PettingZoo library, a flexible Python interface for general multi-agent reinforcement learning benchmarks. Our results indicate that Action Inference is effective in improving learning stability and inter-agent cooperation and that importance sampling using geometric distribution can lead to significant improvements in exploration efficiency over standard MADDPG. Code available at https://github.com/shaashwathsivakumar/MARL_Proj
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Machine Learning
New Benchmarking Shows Limited Generalization Power of TCR Antigenic Epitope Prediction Models
Accurate computational prediction of T cell receptor (TCR) antigen specificity would transform the study of T cell biology and enable scalable immune engineering, yet existing models lack sufficient sensitivity and specificity for broad applications. A major limitation is the absence of rigorously defined, unseen benchmark datasets that allow unbiased evaluation of model performance and generalizability. Here, we describe two complementary classes of datasets that meet this criterion and argue that they provide both a robust framework for model assessment and a foundation for next-generation TCR-antigen prediction algorithm development.
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Machine Learning
AlphaQ: Calibration-Free Bit Allocation for Mixture-of-Experts Quantization
Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures scale model capacity through sparse expert activation, but their deployment remains memory-bound because all expert weights must reside in memory. Mixed-precision quantization can substantially reduce this footprint by assigning different bit-widths to different experts. Existing approaches, however, typically rely on calibration data to estimate expert importance and determine bit allocation. For frontier MoE LLMs, the original training data, and hence the true training distribution, is proprietary and inaccessible. As a result, calibration sets are inevitably imperfect surrogates, and this can misestimate expert utilization and lead to suboptimal bit allocation. Motivated by the substantial cross-expert quality variability observed in modern MoE models, and by the success of Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization (HT-SR) theory at predicting neural network model quality without access to training or testing data, we propose AlphaQ, a calibration-free bit-allocation method for MoE quantization. AlphaQ draws on HT-SR theory and follows a simple principle: experts with more heavy-tailed weight spectra are typically better trained and hence should receive higher bit-widths, while experts with weaker heavy-tailed structure can be quantized more aggressively. AlphaQ operationalizes this principle by measuring expert-wise spectral heavy-tailedness and solving a budget-constrained optimization problem that minimizes total quantization error under a global bit-budget constraint. Across several MoE models, AlphaQ consistently outperforms calibration-based baselines under matched bit budgets. Notably, on Qwen1.5-MoE, AlphaQ achieves near full-precision accuracy with an average expert precision of only 3.5 bits, while delivering more than 4$\times$ memory compression. Our code is available at https://github.com/Superone77/AlphaQ.
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Machine Learning
Be Fair! Can Machine Learning Engineering Agents Adhere to Fairness Constraints?
Machine learning engineering (MLE) agents promise to automate end-to-end ML pipeline development from raw data and natural language instructions, potentially making ML accessible to non-technical domain experts. However, in sensitive and regulated domains, this abstraction creates a responsibility gap: end-users may lack visibility into design choices that affect correctness, robustness, fairness, and regulatory compliance. We argue that existing benchmarks are insufficient to assess whether MLE agents can be safely applied in such settings. We propose desiderata for a responsibility-centered evaluation framework and conduct an exploratory study on melanoma classification, focusing on fairness across skin tones as a responsibility constraint. When evaluating two recent MLE agents, we find that agent-generated pipelines show high variance and consistently underperform manually designed baselines in both predictive quality and fairness, despite fairness-oriented prompts. These preliminary results suggest that further research is needed towards redesigning MLE agents to allow humans to guide the search process and reliably assess the compliance and quality of the generated ML pipelines.