Papers

Input-convex neural nets parametrize the convex potentials of density models and transport maps, and their convexity requires the inter-layer weights to be non-negative. Projected gradient descent enforces this by projecting after each step, and due to mini-batch noise the boundary is re-crossed indefinitely, which leads to an active set the projection never identifies. The differentiable alternative, direct softplus, optimizes a free latent weight through a softplus positivity map whose derivative attenuates the gradient exponentially where the weight is negative—the shoulder—so a coordinate that reaches it stays for an exponentially long time. To keep this unconstrained parametrization without its slow escape, we propose the lift, which replaces the free latent weight by a learnable slack plus an unconstrained network—the body—that takes a permutation-invariant summary of the training batch as input. The latent weight thus varies with the batch before the positivity map, and couples to the gradient formed on it. We show that this coupling enters the variance of the update to the latent weight at first order in the fluctuation, and that the slack, the batch dependence and the shared batch are each needed for it to act. Where the coupling aligns positively with the loss curvature, that variance is larger under the lift than under direct softplus, and a coordinate leaves the shoulder sooner. We compare the lift with the two existing methods on several applications. Where a constrained weight of direct softplus reaches the shoulder and does not leave, the lift fits the target more closely and reaches the same reconstruction about three times sooner. Where almost none reaches it, the methods agree.

A critical challenge facing clinicians managing chronic disease interventions is sustaining long-run patient health given limited information and resources. Digital therapeutics (DTs) provide a cost-effective way to manage interventions at scale through repeated interactions (e.g. daily treatment recommendations), but patient success is highly dependent on their adherence. Behavioral psychology suggests that both treatment recommendations and past adherence affect future adherence, yet existing decision support frameworks for DTs model only recommendation effects or treat adherence as exogenous context, leaving a key gap in model and algorithm development. To address this gap, we present a DT decision support framework that captures both recommendation and adherence effects, allowing clinicians to better plan treatment recommendations. We model a patient's time-varying capacity for engagement with treatment using a linear dynamical system (LDS) that captures both recommendation and adherence effects, endogenously connected to adherence behavior with a logit link. We establish finite-time identification guarantees for this model, extending LDS results to our setting. Next, we propose an optimism-based algorithm, UCB-BOLD, for online treatment selection and prove that it achieves sublinear regret. We evaluate UCB-BOLD against benchmarks via ablation studies on a synthetic patient cohort generated using micro-randomized trial data. DT decision support tools can include dynamical models to enable decision makers to efficiently use the data in DT settings to improve patient health through effective resource allocation. While myopic or heuristic approaches suffice for some patient types, the benefits of explicitly planning around recommendation and adherence effects are significant for others; UCB-BOLD achieves 2-3x lower conditional value-at-risk regret than the next-best benchmark.

Continual anomaly detection (CAD) addresses the need for industrial inspection systems to adapt to evolving production conditions, yet existing methods share three critical gaps: unrealistic evaluation, no systematic comparison, and no consideration of edge deployment constraints. We introduce a unified benchmark combining discrete-task evaluation on structural and logical anomalies, a novel continuous drift protocol, the first head-to-head comparison of all published CAD methods, and computational efficiency profiling on edge hardware. Our results reveal that existing CAD methods do not consistently outperform traditional approaches with simple experience replay. Thus motivated, we propose DINOSaur, a training-free method combining a frozen DINOv3 backbone with spatially-indexed coreset memory and neighborhood-restricted anomaly scoring. DINOSaur achieves zero forgetting by construction, outperforms all evaluated methods across all five protocols, and runs at sub-100\,ms inference on an NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano, with on-device adaptation to new tasks in under 30 seconds.

The growing availability of clinical data has increased the use of machine learning, yet centralized data aggregation is often infeasible for sensitive health information. Federated Learning (FL) offers a distributed alternative, but its adoption is limited by substantial heterogeneity across institutional datasets, making harmonization a critical but frequently overlooked prerequisite for multi-site analytics. We introduce PrivFusion, a privacy-preserving multi-agent framework that automates the harmonization of structured datasets prior to federated training. PrivFusion uses agents to analyze local data, cluster semantically similar features across sites, and provide iterative transformation recommendations until alignment is achieved. Evaluation across four heterogeneous COVID-19 datasets demonstrates that PrivFusion effectively and efficiently harmonizes multi-site data while substantially reducing manual effort.

Low-dimensional embeddings are widely used as visual summaries of high-dimensional data and to enable downstream scientific discoveries. Yet, popular nonlinear dimension reduction methods, such as t-SNE and UMAP, are often selected based on visual appeal alone and without rigorous quantitative validation. A major reason is that manifold embeddings typically do not provide an out-of-sample map nor an inverse back to the original feature space; this makes held-out validation, the gold standard in supervised learning, all but impossible. To address these challenges, we develop a novel framework, MEDAL (Manifold Embedding Distillation via Autoencoder Learning), which distills a fitted manifold embedding into a reusable encoder–decoder model. MEDAL trains a constrained autoencoder whose bottleneck exactly matches any teacher embedding while the decoder reconstructs the original input; this yields an explicit map for new samples, an approximate inverse, and a pointwise reconstruction-based measure of distortion in the manifold space. This converts static manifold embeddings into models that can be evaluated on held-out data, enabling quantitative validation including comparing different dimension reduction methods as well as hyperparameter tuning. Across multiple benchmark and scientific case studies, we show that MEDAL enables held-out validation to determine optimal manifold embeddings and hyperparameters, reveals biologically coherent regions that are difficult to preserve in two dimensional embeddings, and detects distribution shift when new samples are mapped into a fixed reference manifold. MEDAL provides a general validation wrapper to any existing dimension reduction technique that will improve the rigor and reliability of dimension reduction in scientific workflows.

Monitoring autonomous large language model (LLM) agents for covert malicious behavior is challenging due to delayed, context-dependent, and long-horizon attack patterns. Agents may pursue hidden objectives while maintaining superficially benign behavior, making detection difficult even with full trajectory access. Prior monitoring approaches improve scaffolding or ensemble aggregation, but treat each trajectory independently and do not learn from prior monitoring experience. Moreover, standard reasoning methods explain observed behavior without explicitly reasoning about agent beliefs, intentions, and goal alignment required to distinguish benign task execution from covert deviation. We propose Agent-ToM, a learning-to-monitor framework grounded in Theory-of-Mind (ToM) reasoning for security analysis of autonomous agents. Agent-ToM performs structured full-trajectory analysis by inferring beliefs, intent hypotheses with calibrated confidence, expected actions, and deviations from task-consistent behavioral baselines. At inference time, it employs a Reason-Verify-Refine pipeline to construct and validate monitoring decisions. At training time, Agent-ToM distills critique signals into a persistent semantic guardrail memory, enabling reusable belief- and intent-conditioned constraints across episodes. We evaluate Agent-ToM on adversarial agent monitoring benchmarks (SHADE-Arena and CUA-SHADE-Arena). Agent-ToM achieves strong precision-recall balance and outperforms state-of-the-art monitoring baselines, including ensemble methods, while using a coherent two-call reasoning pipeline. These results demonstrate that learning at the monitoring layer, combined with structured ToM reasoning and verification, provides an effective and deployable foundation for securing autonomous LLM agents.

Evaluation harnesses are software systems that orchestrate model evaluation by managing model invocation, data loading, metric computation, and result reporting. Despite their critical role in machine learning infrastructure, their operational challenges and engineering concerns have received limited attention so far. We present an empirical study of 57 evaluation harnesses, deriving a five-stage harness model and classifying 16,560 issues by workflow stage and root cause. Most harness operational challenges concentrate in the Specification stage (41.4% of issues), where harnesses integrate external models, datasets, and scoring judges. The three most frequent root causes of operational challenges are unimplemented features (24.3%), documentation gaps (20.3%), and missing input validation (17.2%), which together account for 61.7% of classified issues, spanning both defects in existing functionality and capability gaps that block intended workflows. Root causes also vary by workflow stage: environment incompatibility and external dependency breakage account for 36.2% of provisioning issues, whereas algorithmic error (25.9%) and validation gap (22.5%) dominate assessment issues. Together, these contributions establish an empirical foundation for treating evaluation engineering as a distinct software engineering concern.

Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain. For example, high-performing models for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rely on detailed prehospital measurements routinely collected in high-resource settings but unavailable in many international registries. Existing methods either discard missing covariates, sacrificing predictive information, or rely on untestable assumptions about their target distribution. We propose DRUM (\underline{D}istributionally \underline{R}obust \underline{U}nsupervised transfer learning with structurally \underline{M}issing covariates), a framework that transfers prediction models to target populations where certain covariates are structurally absent and outcome labels are unavailable. DRUM partitions covariates into shared components ($X$), observed across all settings, and missing components ($A$), observed only in the source. Rather than imputing missing covariates, DRUM optimizes worst-case predictive performance over the unknown target distribution of $A \mid X$ using a neural network generator, with a robustness parameter controlling allowable deviation from the source conditional. We further develop a bias correction procedure that reduces sensitivity to nuisance estimation error. Simulations show substantial improvements in both mean and worst-case prediction error under distribution shift. Applied to cross-national OHCA prediction, transferring models from a US registry to multiple Asian registries where prehospital variables are unrecorded, DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.

What functions can Neural Processes represent? We analyze the representational capacity of popular NP architectures: Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs), Attentive Neural Processes (ANPs), Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs), and their latent variants. We prove these architectures form a strict hierarchy. CNP-representable functions are exactly those depending on finitely many expected features of the context distribution. ANPs strictly generalize CNPs via query-dependent reweighting, enabling kernel smoothers. ConvCNPs and ANPs are incomparable; each contains functions outside the other, separated by stationarity versus translation equivariance. TNPs with $L$ self-attention layers capture $L$-hop context interactions. For latent NPs, we show finite-dimensional latents provide coherent sampling but do not circumvent encoder limitations; matching GP posterior distributions requires latent dimension scaling with context size. These results provide a theoretical foundation for architecture selection based on task structure.

Deep learning over relational databases is conventionally realized by translating data into graph representations and applying graph-based neural networks within external frameworks. This round-trip between the database and external machine learning (ML) systems introduces non-trivial engineering overhead. In effect, these graph neural networks operate on tuple embeddings and manipulate them in ways that capture the interactions induced by relational joins. Given this natural correspondence, there is no fundamental reason why specifying a neural network over relational data should be substantially harder than querying it. We propose an approach that naturally integrates deep learning with database queries. The key idea is to associate each tuple with provenance, represented as a vector embedding with learnable parameters. Queries are lifted to operate jointly on data and embeddings, mapping input relations with embedded tuples to output relations with embedded tuples. This approach provides a declarative foundation for relational deep learning, facilitating integration with database systems, optimization, and wide adoption. We describe RelaNN, a proof-of-concept implementation of this approach built on top of PyTorch and cuDF. We illustrate the utility of RelaNN by implementing various graph-learning models, including graph convolutional networks, heterogeneous graph transformers, hypergraph neural networks and deep homomorphism networks. The simplicity of the programs and their competitive runtime performance demonstrate a concrete path toward making the implementation of state-of-the-art neural networks over databases as simple as writing a query.

Outcome-reward RL can train every role of a multi-agent LLM workflow. Its benefit is hard to predict because the reward assigns no credit to individual roles and a shared policy trades pooled data against specialization. We ask when this training improves a workflow over its base model and single-agent RL, and what each role learns. We train three workflows (Eval-Opt, Voting, Orch-Workers) with GRPO on math and code at three Qwen3 scales, with one policy for all roles (Shared-Policy, SP) or one per role type (Isolated-Policy, IP). Every workflow gains by adapting to its structure; this does not make a role better than training it alone. Single-agent RL in the same structure matches or beats trained Voting and Orch-Workers, and within the grid only Eval-Opt under IP exceeds it. Eval-Opt's evaluator learns when to retry and its generator learns to complete the retried attempts, a joint strategy that a single policy trained alone does not acquire. Under SP, per-output token averaging sets each role's gradient share, a hidden hyperparameter absent from single-agent RL, and the solving roles learn slowly; reweighting it gives SP the speed and peak of IP, and its decline. Under IP, a parallel role, whose instances share one adapter, takes one optimizer step per instance per training step and can drift after the peak as its entropy rises and accuracy declines. Merging those steps delays the decline. Our code is at: https://github.com/XHMY/marl-llm-workflows

Sonar is often the only modality suitable for high-resolution imaging underwater due to light attenuation and turbidity. Forward-looking imaging sonar provides measurements over range and horizontal angle but collapses vertical structure into a flat image, creating ambiguities that make 3D recovery challenging. A common use case for imaging sonar is underwater terrain mapping (bathymetry), yet current methods require many views, expensive multi-sensor setups, or significant training data, which limits use and adaptability to new environments. We present a training-free method that recovers bathymetry from a single sonar image in under 30 seconds via differentiable rendering, conditioned on a known seafloor tilt. To our knowledge, this is the first differentiable rendering approach for single-view height recovery in sonar. Our method implements differentiable sonar ray tracing and optimizes an explicit height field to reproduce the target image. On synthetic datasets, our approach outperforms a supervised CNN under distribution shift and remains close on rough terrain, while the CNN wins in-distribution. By modeling physically grounded priors of the sonar process, our method adapts across sensor configurations and environments without training data.

Competitive music transcription models require large amounts of paired audio-score data, which is scarce due to collection costs, alignment difficulty, and copyright restrictions. Meanwhile, vast quantities of unpaired audio recordings and symbolic scores are freely available but have gone unused. We adopt a cycle-consistent translation framework in which a small amount of paired data acts as a minimal anchor, unlocking the full potential of the unpaired pool. We find that: unpaired data yields surprisingly large gains, especially under limited supervision; unpaired audio contributes more than unpaired scores; incorporating unlabeled audio from a new instrument during training improves transcription for that instrument without any paired supervision. Together, these results suggest that scaling unpaired data offers a practical path toward high-quality transcription for instruments where labeled data remains scarce.

The neural-network denoising functions which form the backbone of image diffusion models are remarkably consistent in their generalization behaviour across a wide variety of network architectures and training procedure hyperparameters. A recent line of research has sought to model the outputs of these networks by aggregating posterior weighted averages of training dataset patches. In this work, we consolidate these approaches into a unified model class which we call Filtered Posterior Mean Collections (FPMCs). We define this model class using query precision vectors, response weights, and source distributions, and illustrate that existing methods are recoverable with specific choices of these design axes. Investigating each axis in turn, we find that FPMC performance can be improved with soft relaxations of prior patch-based methods, and through augmentations of source distributions. Applying these findings to an existing FPMC, we demonstrate consistent sample improvement across three natural image datasets.

As LLMs improve, data agents are emerging as a new interface for analytics, while semantic query processing engines use LLMs to operate over structured and unstructured data. Existing benchmarks largely evaluate agents and semantic query engines in isolation, leaving it unclear whether agents can decide when and how to use semantic operators in end-to-end analysis. We introduce AvalancheBench, a multimodal enterprise analytics benchmark that generates observed data from latent world specifications and evaluates data agents on their ability to recover that world. The benchmark's 3 validated tasks contain 58 questions spanning text, images, and documents. Questions are provided together as a multi-part analytical brief and may share intermediate results, exposing the avalanche effect: errors can propagate through legitimate dependencies, and inappropriate reuse can cause otherwise unrelated questions to fail. AvalancheBench measures analytical fidelity, monetary cost, and capability-adjusted token cost (CATC), a new metric that weights token use by model capability to separate technical efficiency from provider pricing. We evaluate 5 model-harness configurations across 3 agent harnesses using Snowflake Cortex AISQL as the engine, with the best configuration reaching macro analytical fidelity of 0.82. Agents fail primarily in constructing the analysis: failing to recover facts that require semantic computation costs 45.1% of lost points, yet incorrect operator outputs account for only 2.5%, versus 36.3% from agents misusing or avoiding semantic operators. Misinterpreting requirements costs the most, at 51.5%. Errors also spread between questions: 29% of lost points come from reusing another question's results. Finally, monetary cost and CATC produce different Pareto frontiers, distinguishing economically attractive configurations from those that are technically resource efficient.

Memorization in large language models has been studied almost exclusively through prefix-conditioned extraction, a natural choice for autoregressive models. However, diffusion language models (DLMs) can denoise masked tokens at arbitrary positions. Thus, prefix-only probing reveals only one facet of memorization in DLMs and significantly underestimates the risk of training-data extraction. In order to realistically model extractability of training data in DLMs, we introduce infilling extraction, a data-extraction protocol parameterized by an arbitrary binary mask that subsumes prefix-only probing and accounts for the bidirectional inductive bias of DLMs. Instantiating it on LLaDA-8B and Dream-7B across five extraction modes, three training pipelines, and three corpora covering verbatim and partial leakage, we find that mask geometry governs extractability: edge-conditioned masks extract up to three times more verbatim sequences than prefix-conditioned ones, and bidirectional access opens channels inaccessible in autoregressive models. In particular, we show that a realistic adversary with access to training data where personally identifiable information has been redacted, can even achieve higher recall on extracting redacted email addresses from DLMs than from scale-matched autoregressive models. Tunable parameters for decoding measurably affect extraction performance, while a follow-up supervised finetuning stage does not eliminate the prior memorization.

Large language models are increasingly used for vulnerability detection, yet their reliability under different prompt formulations remains uncharacterized. We present PromptAudit, a controlled evaluation framework that isolates prompt effects by fixing the dataset, decoding, and parsing while varying only the prompting strategy. Using five prompting strategies across five open-weight models on 1,000 CVEs (6,074 code samples spanning 16 programming languages), we evaluate accuracy, recall, abstention, coverage, and effective F1. We find that standard chain-of-thought prompting achieves the strongest overall operational performance, while few-shot prompting provides model-dependent benefits that are most pronounced for prompt-sensitive models. In contrast, adaptive chain-of-thought frequently suppresses recall and self-consistency induces excessive abstention, sharply reducing effective performance. These results show that vulnerability detection behavior is jointly determined by the model and the prompt, and that prompt sensitivity is a first-class system property that must be explicitly characterized in evaluation and deployment.

Ordinary differential equation models of biochemical reactions are often formulated as stoichiometric systems in which the dynamics arise from a collection of interacting processes. A central challenge is that the functional form of each process is rarely known a priori and may be difficult to infer from data. We propose biochemically informed neural ordinary differential equations (BINODEs), a neural-ODE framework that retains the stoichiometric structure of mechanistic models while representing individual processes by neural networks. In BINODEs, the outputs of neural network processes (NNPs) are mapped to state derivatives through a linear layer analogous to a stoichiometric matrix. This architecture allows biological side information, such as process-specific inputs, sign constraints, and monotonicity assumptions, to be built directly into the model. We characterize the approximation properties of NNPs for several standard biochemical rate laws and show that the proposed framework recovers both trajectories and process-level structure in Monod, Lotka–Volterra, pharmacokinetic, and ultradian endocrine models. These results suggest that BINODEs offer a useful compromise between mechanistic interpretability and data-driven flexibility for modeling partially known biochemical or biological dynamical systems.

Sparsity has long been a central theme in LLM efficiency, but its role in context processing remains unresolved. As LLM workloads shift toward longer contexts and agentic interactions, the compute and memory bottlenecks of attention become increasingly critical, raising the question of whether these constraints are fundamental. Our position is that these constraints are artificial and unnecessary, and that the future of LLM inference lies in extreme but principled sparsity along the context dimension. This position is supported by several strands of empirical and theoretical evidence. First, we find the insistence on dense attention unreasonable, since in a long context a query effectively projects O(N) attention information into a hidden space of dimension d << N, making the process inherently lossy. Second, we perform an extensive study of sparsity in LLMs spanning 20 models across five model families, varying context lengths, and different sparsity levels. We empirically demonstrate a strong trend: current LLMs, despite not being trained for context sparsity, are remarkably robust to inference-time decode sparsity across tasks of varying complexity, including retrieval, multi-hop QA, mathematical reasoning, and agentic coding. Importantly, we also show that current hardware is already sufficient to realize substantial gains from this sparsity. For example, our sparse decode kernels accelerate large-context processing by up to 10x over FlashInfer at 50x sparsity levels on hardware such as the H100. Overall, these results position extreme context sparsity not as a heuristic, but as a principled foundation for LLM inference, training, and architecture design: one that is both feasible and beneficial, and a compelling direction for future systems.

Biological systems are governed by structured molecular interactions, where pathways, regulatory circuits, and functional gene relationships shape cellular behavior and disease progression. Much of this knowledge is naturally represented as graphs. However, most biomedical AI models cannot directly use graph-encoded biological knowledge and instead require compressed low-dimensional representations, which can lose important structure and reduce performance, especially in limited-sample clinical studies. Here, we introduce Graph-in-Graph (GiG), a knowledge graph-modulated deep learning framework for data-efficient clinical prediction. GiG represents each patient as a standalone modular graph, in which curated biological knowledge graphs define edges and patient-specific measurements, such as gene expression, define node features. This design allows multiple biological knowledge graphs to be integrated while preserving gene-gene interactions and pathway topology during patient-level representation learning. Across cohorts comprising nearly 9,700 patients and five clinical tasks, including liquid biopsy cancer detection, prostate cancer diagnosis, and 32-class pan-cancer classification, GiG consistently outperforms traditional and state-of-the-art methods, with the largest gains in limited-sample settings. On the challenging prostate cancer diagnosis task, GiG improves macro-F1 by up to 49 percentage points relative to competing methods. Control experiments replacing real pathway graphs with random topologies confirm that these gains arise from biologically grounded knowledge graph structure rather than graph modeling alone. These findings show that knowledge graph-modulated deep learning can improve robustness, interpretability, and sample efficiency in clinical data analysis, and provide a principled framework for integrating biological knowledge graphs into predictive modeling.

Effective skills-aware talent recommendation must balance behavioral transition patterns, trajectory-sensitive adaptation, and inspectable occupation-level criteria. Evidence from public benchmarks on how these signals interact, however, remains limited. This study proposes CF-RL-TOPSIS, an interpretable late-fusion model that integrates a transition-aware collaborative branch, a compact reinforcement-style occupation-family bandit, and an entropy-weighted TOPSIS branch constructed from six semantic proxies; the validation-selected fusion coefficients remain auditable. The model is evaluated on two frozen public ICT talent-history benchmarks, JobHop and Karrierewege, using repeated chronological top-5 ranking and paired Wilcoxon tests. On JobHop the full hybrid attains NDCG@5 = 0.3040 +/- 0.0073 and significantly surpasses repeat-last, item Markov, transition-aware collaborative filtering, the CF+TOPSIS hybrid, GRU4Rec, and SASRec (p <= 0.0039 across planned comparisons). On Karrierewege the hybrid remains competitive but does not significantly exceed the strongest Markov baseline, revealing a persistence-dominated setting in which the bandit branch appropriately shrinks to near-zero weight. Proxy-sensitivity, family-level deep Q-network, and runtime checks support this interpretation, and a worked user-level case shows how branch scores, criterion weights, and rank shifts can be inspected for an individual recommendation. The contribution is not a benchmark-agnostic superiority claim, but a reproducible account of the conditions under which transparent late fusion adds value beyond simple continuation heuristics. In semantically rich, non-saturating talent-history regimes the three branches reinforce one another; in persistence-dominated regimes the same architecture remains competitive through its collaborative backbone, with the adaptive branch correctly inactive.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance across diverse domains but remain inefficient during the autoregressive decoding phase. Unlike the prefill stage, which employs compute-bound GEMM operations, decoding executes a sequence of small GEMV-like computations that are memory-bound and underutilize modern accelerators. Weight-only vector quantization (VQ) has emerged as an effective compression technique that clusters model weights into a shared codebook and replaces the original weight matrix with low-precision indices, enabling 2-bit-level weight compression. While this approach substantially reduces model size and memory bandwidth, it still suffers from two critical inefficiencies: the low utilization of GEMV computation and frequent memory conflicts during codebook lookups. This paper presents EVA, an efficient vector-quantization-based architecture that addresses both computational and memory bottlenecks in LLM decoding. EVA builds on a simple yet effective insight that combines input-codebook computation with conflict-free memory access. Instead of reconstructing quantized weights from indices, EVA directly performs dot products between input vectors and the weight codebook, transforming LLM decoding from GEMV to GEMM computation. It then performs structured lookups from an intermediate output buffer, eliminating memory bank conflicts. We further design a hardware-software co-optimized architecture specialized for LLM decoding while remaining compatible with conventional prefill execution. Evaluations show that EVA achieves up to 11.17$\times$ speedup and 7.17$\times$ higher energy efficiency compared with the SOTA lookup-based architecture, while preserving arithmetic precision after vector quantization. Our code is available at https://github.com/dbw6/Eva.git.

Imperfect-information games (IIGs) are challenging, as players must make decisions without fully observing the true game state. While AlphaZero has achieved remarkable success in perfect-information games, extending it to IIGs remains difficult. Existing search-based approaches, such as Perfect Information Monte Carlo (PIMC), suffer from strategy fusion, while Information Set Monte Carlo Tree Search (IS-MCTS) incurs high computational cost when combined with neural networks. In this paper, we propose Multi-State Aggregated PoLicy Evaluation (MAPLE), a tree search method that aggregates policy and value evaluations from multiple sampled world states within a single search tree, combining the advantages of PIMC and IS-MCTS while maintaining a controllable computational cost. We further incorporate a Siamese-based sampling strategy to select informative world states from the information set. Experiments on Phantom Go and Dark Hex show that MAPLE significantly outperforms the PIMC-based AlphaZero baseline, achieving Elo improvements of 291 and 136, respectively. These results demonstrate that MAPLE is an effective approach for AlphaZero-style learning in imperfect-information games.

We study the problem of identifying dynamically distinct basins of attraction in high dimensional time-homogeneous Markov processes using only trajectory sampling. This problem is fundamental in the analysis of metastable dynamical systems, where the process rapidly mixes within basins while transitions between basins occur rarely on the timescale of interest, or even when the state space is reducible. Existing approaches typically rely on spatial discretization or spectral analysis of estimated transition operators, which can become unreliable in high dimensional settings or when the underlying basin geometry is highly nonlinear. We propose a discriminative approach to basin identification based on marginal trajectory distribution comparison. We prove a simple risk separation result: if two initial states belong to the same basin, the Bayes-optimal classifier distinguishing their marginal trajectory distributions achieves risk close to 1/2, whereas if they lie in distinct basins, the optimal risk is close to zero. This observation reduces basin detection to a two-sample discrimination problem between marginal trajectory distributions. Motivated by this principle, we develop a neural algorithm that receives a set of candidate basin representatives and iteratively merges them by estimating classification risk with a neural network that approximates the Bayes classifier. We evaluate the method on various metastable systems. These include synthetic systems constructed by embedding low-dimensional dynamics into high dimensional noisy ambient spaces. In these settings, standard spectral and clustering-based methods often fail, while our approach accurately recovers the underlying basin structure. These results display a shortcoming of existing methods and highlight trajectory discrimination as an effective tool for identifying dynamical basins in high dimensional stochastic systems.

Classical archetypal analysis is appealing for its interpretability, but its linear geometry can limit performance on data with strongly non-linear structure; at the same time, existing neural extensions improve flexibility while often weakening the geometric meaning of archetypes and interpolations. In this work, we develop a Riemannian version of archetypal analysis based on data-driven pullback geometry for real-valued data, with the goal of combining the interpretability of classical archetypal analysis with the expressive power of modern non-linear models. We introduce a class of deformed star distributions together with associated pullback Riemannian geometry to provide a statistical interpretation of the resulting manifold mappings, define the Riemannian archetypal mapping (RAM) as a projection onto the manifold of geodesically convex combinations of archetypes, and propose a practical optimization scheme based on convex relaxation followed by non-convex refinement. We further propose a learning scheme that yields reasonable, albeit generally suboptimal, deformed star distributions from data. Experiments on synthetic examples and MNIST show that the resulting framework produces meaningful geodesics, useful denoising projections, and geometry-aware classifications, while also clarifying where current optimization limitations remain.

Rapid and accurate flood extent mapping from Remote Sensing data, such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), is critical for operational disaster response, but standard Deep Learning models often produce physically impossible predictions due to a lack of hydrological constraints. While PhysicsInformed Neural Networks (PINNs) attempt to address this by embedding governing laws directly into the loss function, their application to real-world remote sensing data frequently fails. Enforcing rigid spatial derivatives (e.g., the 2D Shallow Water Equations) onto unconditioned latent spaces attempting to fit noisy SAR speckle causes catastrophic gradient divergence, a phenomenon we term Physics Shock. In this paper, we propose a novel Uncertainty-Aware PINN framework tailored specifically for applied Earth Observation that addresses this instability. By integrating a dynamic Warm-Start protocol and modeling heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty via a negative log-likelihood objective, the network learns to dynamically relax physical constraints in regions of high sensor noise while strictly enforcing them in high-confidence areas. Evaluated on the Sen1Floods11 dataset, our probabilistic Attention-Gated FNO-UNet successfully stabilizes multi-objective optimization, achieving a +25% relative improvement in Intersection over Union (IoU) compared to deterministic baselines. Furthermore, through Deep Ensembles, we successfully disentangle intrinsic sensor noise from out-of-distribution terrain ignorance, providing operational agencies with highly calibrated, physically consistent confidence bounds for robust disaster mitigation and real-time decision-making.

Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) are widely recognised as computationally intractable for neural networks, since they induce an exponential search space over the input features. In this work, we take a first step towards scaling exact SHAP computation to larger search spaces by introducing an algorithm that leverages recent advances in neural network verification to compute arbitrarily tight exact lower and upper bounds on SHAP values for neural networks, ultimately recovering the exact SHAP values. We demonstrate that our approach scales to orders of magnitude larger search spaces than state-of-the-art exact methods. This provides an important first step towards exact SHAP computation and establishes a principled cornerstone for evaluating statistical approximation methods on larger search spaces.

Machine learning deployments in real-world wireless communication tasks face significant generalization challenges due to location and environment-specific signal structure, high diversity in data across different deployments, and limited availability of real-world data. Current approaches for assessing data similarity between training and inference (deployment) distributions, as well as evaluating model transferability, suffer from high computational costs and inconsistent performance, leaving critical model deployment and model life cycle management decisions without a principled foundation. To address this, we introduce a dataset similarity framework built upon the feature space of a pretrained wireless foundation model. Our method, LWM-CDE (Contrastive learning of Dataset Embedding), fine-tunes the dataset embeddings of the foundation model using a combination of contrastive and geometry-shaping losses, creating a structured manifold where distance reliably indicates transferability. Extensive experiments on wireless benchmarks show that LWM-CDE achieves stronger correlation with empirical transfer performance than existing metrics while being more computationally efficient. The learned representation space supports more effective and data-efficient decision-making for tasks like source dataset selection, label-aware augmentation, and budgeted pretraining, demonstrating its broader utility across different wireless communication applications.

Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation. This paper argues that causal inference (identifying mechanisms invariant under intervention) is AI's indispensable statistical conscience. Without causal grounding, AI systems are correlation machines: powerful in familiar domains, brittle under distribution shift, and biased in high-stakes settings. Three contributions develop this argument. First, a Statistical Necessity Theorem for Causal Generalization: any algorithm achieving out-of-distribution generalization must encode causal structure, formalizing the distinction between prediction P(Y|X) and intelligence P(Y|do(X)). Second, a unified framework connects Pearl's do-calculus, the Potential Outcomes framework, Double Machine Learning, and Invariant Risk Minimization as a family of Causal Statistical Estimators, each identifying interventional distributions under different assumptions. Third, three AI failure modes (hallucination in large language models, reward hacking in reinforcement learning from human feedback, and degradation under distribution shift) are manifestations of causal blindness, each admitting a principled statistical remedy. Trustworthy AI is, at its core, a problem of causal statistics. The statistical community is not merely equipped to solve it – it is the only community with the foundational tools to do so rigorously.

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) require generating computationally expensive, large-scale training datasets to accurately simulate materials and molecules. Incorporating electronic structure information using multitask learning improves sample efficiency, however, training on full Hamiltonian matrices, which scale quadratically with the number of atoms, is intractable for large datasets. In this work, we show that multitask learning utilizing orbitally resolved semiempirical charges significantly improves sample efficiency and accuracy in MLIPs. To efficiently predict orbital charges, we implement a specialized equivariant model, reducing charge prediction error compared to an invariant baseline. By augmenting training with computationally inexpensive GFN1-xTB orbital charges, which scale linearly with the number of atoms, our model achieves a 58% reduction in energy mean absolute error relative to energy-only baselines, and requires five times less data to match their performance. Against the stronger baseline of joint energy-and-force training, orbital charges still reduce the energy error by 12%. Furthermore, our approach matches or outperforms models trained on expensive density functional theory (DFT) atomic charges, capturing orbitally resolved electronic complexity and forcing the network to learn a physically accurate latent space that spontaneously clusters metals by shared chemical properties. Because orbital charges are only required during training, this approach preserves inference efficiency, providing a scalable recipe for developing accurate, data-efficient foundation models for complex chemical systems.