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Friday 8 May

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Discovering Ordinary Differential Equations with LLM-Based Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation

Discovering governing differential equations from observational data is a fundamental challenge in scientific machine learning. Existing symbolic regression approaches rely primarily on quantitative metrics; however, real-world differential equation modeling also requires incorporating domain knowledge to ensure physical plausibility. To address this gap, we propose DoLQ, a method for discovering ordinary differential equations with LLM-based qualitative and quantitative evaluation. DoLQ employs a multi-agent architecture: a Sampler Agent proposes dynamic system candidates, a Parameter Optimizer refines equations for accuracy, and a Scientist Agent leverages an LLM to conduct both qualitative and quantitative evaluations and synthesize their results to iteratively guide the search. Experiments on multi-dimensional ordinary differential equation benchmarks demonstrate that DoLQ achieves superior performance compared to existing methods, not only attaining higher success rates but also more accurately recovering the correct symbolic terms of ground truth equations. Our code is available at https://github.com/Bon99yun/DoLQ.
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Machine Learning

Generative Modeling with Flux Matching

We introduce Flux Matching, a new paradigm for generative modeling that generalizes existing score-based models to a broader family of vector fields that need not be conservative. Rather than requiring the model to equal the data score, the Flux Matching objective imposes a weaker condition that admits infinitely many vector fields whose stationary distribution is the data. This flexibility enables a class of generative models that cannot be learned under score matching, in which inductive biases, structural priors, and properties of the dynamics can be directly imposed or optimized. We show that Flux Matching performs strongly on high-dimensional image datasets and, more importantly, that our added freedom unlocks a range of applications including faster sampling, interpretable and mechanistic models, and dynamics that encode directed dependencies between variables. More broadly, Flux Matching opens a new dimension in generative modeling by turning the vector field itself into a design choice rather than a fixed target. Code is available at https://github.com/peterpaohuang/flux_matching.
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Machine Learning

Latent Order Bandits

Bandit algorithms solve diverse sequential decision-making problems, but are often too sample-inefficient for from-scratch personalization. To substantially reduce exploration times, latent bandit algorithms exploit cross-instance structure implied by discrete latent states, provided that the posterior distribution of rewards and latent states is known and accurate. However, obtaining an accurate model of this structure is difficult, and a small number of latent states may be insufficient to characterize the reward distributions in all problem instances. We propose latent order bandits (LOB), relaxing the assumptions of latent bandits to require only prior knowledge of a partial order of action preferences in each state. This allows instances of the same state to vary in reward distributions, as long as the partial order of actions is shared. For example, groups of users on a streaming service may agree on which movie genres are the best but rate experiences on different scales. We give an upper-confidence bound procedure for the LOB problem, applicable to both total and partial latent orders, and give an upper bound on its regret. To improve empirical performance, we propose a posterior-sampling algorithm and show, in a suite of experiments, that both are competitive with full-prior latent bandits when same-state instances share reward parameters, and preferable to them when reward scales differ between instances with the same latent state.
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Machine Learning

Pretraining Induces a Reusable Spectral Basis for Downstream Task Adaptation

Finetuning pretrained models occurs in a low-dimensional subspace of the full parameter space. Prior work has focused on characterizing this optimization subspace, but largely ignored the complementary question: why do certain directions remain unexplored during finetuning? Are these stable directions irrelevant to downstream tasks, or do they already encode task-relevant structure that requires no further adjustment? Answering this question is central to understanding how pretrained knowledge transfers. Through systematic spectral analysis across vision and language models, we show that the leading singular vectors of pretrained weight matrices remain highly stable under finetuning and are shared across unrelated downstream tasks, revealing that pretraining establishes a reusable spectral coordinate system. Models pretrained on larger datasets exhibit greater spectral stability under distribution shift or task change, directly linking pretraining scale to geometric transferability. Motivated by these findings, we propose a parameter-efficient method that freezes pretrained singular vectors and optimizes only leading spectral coefficients, achieving competitive performance on GLUE with 0.2% trainable parameters. Our results reveal that the stable directions encode transferable structure rather than irrelevant noise: successful pretraining discovers spectral bases that downstream tasks inherit and operate within.
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All authors Junjie Yu, Yue Wang, Zihan Deng, Yan Zhu, Wenxiao Ma, Quanying Liu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Spectrum-Adaptive Generalization Bounds for Trained Deep Transformers

Understanding why trained Transformers generalize well is a fundamental problem in modern machine learning theory, and complexity-based generalization bounds provide a principled way to study this question. While existing norm-based bounds for Transformers remove the explicit polynomial dependence on the hidden dimension, they typically impose fixed norm constraints specified a priori and can exhibit unfavorable exponential dependence on depth. In this paper, we derive spectrum-adaptive post hoc generalization bounds for multi-layer Transformers. Under layerwise spectral norm control, the bounds are expressed in terms of layerwise Schatten quantities of the query-key, value, and feedforward weight matrices. Since the Schatten indices need not be fixed a priori and can instead be selected after training, separately for each matrix type and layer, the bounds adaptively trade off spectral complexity against the dimension- and depth-dependent factors according to the learned singular-value profiles. Empirical comparisons of BERT-adapted proxies for the leading complexity factors suggest that the proxies induced by our bounds grow more slowly with depth and hidden dimension than the corresponding norm-based proxies. Overall, our results provide a complexity-based perspective on how the spectral structure of trained Transformers is reflected in generalization analyses.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from math.NA

Sparse Random-Feature Neural Networks with Krylov-Based SVD for Singularly Perturbed ODE

Random-feature neural networks (RFNNs), including architectures with fixed hidden layers and analytically determined output weights, offer fast training but often suffer from issues due to dense representations of the hidden layer activation. Their reliance on dense feature mappings and least squares solvers can limit scalability and numerical stability, particularly for high-dimensional or stiff systems. Specifically, the activation matrix is observed to be low-rank and extremely ill-conditioned. In this work, we propose a sparse framework for RFNNs that integrates structured sparsity into the hidden layer activations that increases the rank and employs Sparse Singular Value Decomposition (sSVD) for solving the resulting linear least squares problem scalably and efficiently while catering to the bad condition number. We explore the theory behind Lanczos-Golub-Kahan Bidiagonalization technique for sparse SVD and conduct some experiments to identify some limitations and justify the requirement for orthogonalization step in our application. Then, we demonstrate that the proposed method maintains or improves solution accuracy for solving the benchmark one-dimensional steady convection-diffusion equations case having stronger advection, while achieving substantial gains in training efficiency and robustness compared to standard dense implementations.
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Machine Learning

Same Targets, Different Computation: How Post-Training Divides Work Across Model Layers

A late-layer change learned during post-training may work on the base model's earlier state, or it may depend on earlier computation learned with it. We distinguish these cases with a four-cell diagnostic that crosses base or descendant upstream states with base or descendant late stacks. A large late-stack effect need not imply strong upstream dependence. On math prompts, OpenMath2's late stack changes the target margin by +3.43 logits after base upstream state and +3.28 after its own, giving a near-zero interaction. Several instruction-following descendants of the same Llama-3.1-8B base show greater dependence, while controlled code and biomedical continuation-training runs sit near zero on the common support; seven released descendants span -0.54 to +2.20 logits. Because those checkpoints differ in many ways, we then isolate one training property. Two LoRA fine-tunes learn identical target responses requested either by familiar natural-language instructions or by newly learned nonce codes. Changing only this cue-to-response relation increases upstream dependence by +5.56 logits on Qwen3-4B and +4.18 on Llama-3.1-8B, with a positive paired shift in all six model-by-seed runs. The interaction is also positive in all five released base/instruction pairs we test, and late-stack replacement changes the full-vocabulary argmax in about half of events. Post-training can therefore organize the same target behavior with different dependencies between earlier and later computation. The diagnostic measures local next-token compatibility, not free-running component transplantation.
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Machine Learning

The Convergence Gap: Instruction-Tuned Language Models Stabilize Later in the Forward Pass

Final outputs hide when a checkpoint commits to its next-token prediction. We introduce the convergence gap, a model-diffing diagnostic that decodes each layer's next-token distribution and measures its distance to the model's own final distribution. Across six paired pretrained and instruction-tuned checkpoints in native prompting regimes, instruction-tuned checkpoints remain farther from their final predictions later into the stack. The effect persists under endpoint-matched raw and tuned readouts, endpoint-free same-history checks, and fixed-history template replay. Matched-prefix interventions identify late MLP windows as the largest tested leverage point: late IT grafts into PT hosts increase late KL by +0.34 nats, while PT-late swaps into IT hosts reduce it by -0.51 nats; matched random late perturbations give only +0.003 versus +0.327 for the true late graft. A preselected Gemma case study provides behavior-facing plausibility for the same late swap, without serving as a benchmark claim. These results identify a robust predictiondynamics signature of post-training: released instruction-following checkpoints tend to settle later, and late MLP computation is the strongest tested bidirectional handle on that delay under matched histories.
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Machine Learning

Mask2Cause: Temporal Causal Discovery Beyond Causality in Mean

One approach to discovering causal relationships in multivariate time series is to ask whether a variable's history improves prediction of another variable. When this improvement is measured solely by reductions in optimal squared error, the criterion misses relationships that affect the target's conditional variance without changing its conditional mean. We propose Mask2Cause, an end-to-end Transformer framework for causal discovery through conditional mean and variance prediction. Each variable's history is embedded as a separate token, and a single learnable adjacency matrix, shared across layers and attention heads, controls information exchange between tokens. Gaussian negative log-likelihood and a sparsity penalty on this matrix jointly train the forecasting model and graph. Our population analysis connects the optimal log-loss reduction to causally conditioned directed information, providing an information-theoretic motivation for the training objective. We introduce Mixed Physics, a benchmark with separately controlled mean and variance dependencies, to evaluate recovery of mean-only and variance-only edges. In its pure-variance setting, Mask2Cause achieves 1.000 off-diagonal AUROC, compared with 0.521 for a corresponding squared-error model. Experiments on linear, chaotic, biological, and real-data-derived benchmarks demonstrate competitive graph recovery, while the inferred graphs support downstream tasks such as causal pruning for efficient forecasting and root-cause localization.
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Machine Learning

Predictive but Not Plannable: RC-aux for Latent World Models

A latent world model may achieve accurate short-horizon prediction while still inducing a latent space that is poorly aligned with planning. A key issue is spatiotemporal mismatch: these models are often trained with local predictive supervision, but deployed for long-horizon goal-directed search in latent spaces where Euclidean distance may not reflect what is reachable within a finite action budget. We present the Reachability-Correction auxiliary objective (RC-aux), a lightweight correction for this mismatch in reconstruction-free latent world models. RC-aux keeps the world-model backbone unchanged and adds planning-aligned supervision along two axes. Along the time axis, multi-horizon open-loop prediction trains the model beyond one-step consistency. Along the space axis, budget-conditioned reachability supervision, together with temporal hard negatives, encourages the latent space to distinguish states that are eventually reachable from those reachable within the current planning horizon. At test time, the learned reachability signal can also be used by a reachability-aware planner to favor trajectories that are both goal-directed and attainable under the available budget. We instantiate RC-aux on LeWorldModel and evaluate it under both continuation-training and matched-from-scratch settings. Across goal-conditioned pixel-control tasks and a LIBERO-Goal extension, RC-aux improves LeWM-style planning with modest additional cost. These results suggest that planning with latent world models depends not only on predictive accuracy, but also on whether the learned representation encodes the temporal and geometric structure required by downstream search. The code is available at https://github.com/Guang000/RC-aux.
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All authors Wenyuan Li, Guang Li, Keisuke Maeda, Takahiro Ogawa, Miki Haseyama

Machine Learning

Bifurcation Models: Learning Set-Valued Solution Maps with Weight-Tied Dynamics

Many scientific and combinatorial problems admit multiple correct solutions, not a single label. Standard supervised learning resolves this ambiguity by choosing one solution as the target, but this hidden selector can be arbitrary, discontinuous, and harder to learn than the underlying solution set. We study bifurcation models, a weight-tied dynamical view in which different initializations can converge to different stable equilibria, so the model represents an attractor landscape rather than one chosen branch. We prove that broad set-valued maps with locally Lipschitz branches can be represented by regular equilibrium dynamics and that the induced selectors are almost everywhere regular, while manual selectors can be arbitrarily irregular. Experiments on frustrated Ising models show that such dynamics can discover multiple valid equilibria without branch labels and outperform single-branch supervision. Allen–Cahn experiments further show that diversity is not automatic: it can be encouraged explicitly, but with an accuracy–diversity tradeoff.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Structured Role-Aware Policy Optimization for Multimodal Reasoning

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR), especially with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), has shown strong potential for improving the reasoning capabilities of large vision-language models (LVLMs). However, in multimodal reasoning, final-answer rewards are typically assigned at the sequence level and do not distinguish the functional roles of different tokens, making it difficult to determine whether a correct answer is supported by task-relevant visual evidence. In this paper, we revisit multimodal RLVR from the perspective of role-aware token-level credit assignment, where structured responses are decomposed into perception tokens for extracting visual evidence and reasoning tokens for deriving answers from that evidence. Based on this perspective, we propose Structured Role-aware Policy Optimization (SRPO), which refines the sequence-level GRPO advantage into role-aware token-level advantages without changing the reward function. Specifically, SRPO assigns role-specific credit by using self-distilled on-policy contrasts: perception tokens are emphasized according to their visual dependency under original versus corrupted visual inputs, while reasoning tokens are emphasized according to their consistency with the generated perception. These role-specific signals are further unified through a shared trajectory-level baseline, yielding positive token weights that adjust relative update magnitudes while preserving the original GRPO reward and optimization direction, without requiring external reward models or separate teachers. Experiments across diverse multimodal reasoning benchmarks show that SRPO improves evidence-grounded reasoning, highlighting the importance of moving beyond uniform sequence-level credit toward role-aware optimization for reliable multimodal reasoning.
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Machine Learning

bispectrum: Selective G-Bispectra Made Practical

Many machine learning tasks are invariant under transformations such as translations and rotations. The $G$-bispectrum is a complete invariant that determines a signal up to a group action, but its computation is costly and existing implementations each cover a single group. We present bispectrum, an open-source, fully unit-tested PyTorch library providing efficient, differentiable selective $G$-bispectra for seven group actions. Selectivity reduces the number of coefficients from $O(|G|^2)$ to $O(|G|)$ for finite groups, from $O(m^{5/2})$ to $O(m)$ for planar rotations on the disk with $m$ harmonics, and from $\Theta(L^3)$ to $\Theta(L^2)$ for spherical 3D rotations using our augmented selective spherical bispectrum at band limit $L$. The library is invariant up to floating-point error and computes selective $G$-bispectra in sub-millisecond time on GPU. We evaluate them as pooling layers on PatchCamelyon and OrganMNIST3D against five baselines. Across 46 comparisons, bispectral pooling remains competitive, matching all baselines on PCam and improving on max pooling by 5.0 percentage points on OrganMNIST3D. On Spherical MNIST, our method with an MLP head reaches 95.8% on rotated test digits, matching a spherical CNN at $4\times$ lower latency and coming within 0.3 percentage points of a tensor-product network at $364\times$ lower latency. Selective $G$-bispectra provide fast, competitive invariant layers for finite and continuous groups.
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All authors Johan Mathe, Adele Myers, Simon Mataigne, Nina Miolane

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

MIPIAD: Multilingual Indirect Prompt Injection Attack Defense with Qwen – TF-IDF Hybrid and Meta-Ensemble Learning

Indirect prompt injection remains a persistent weakness in retrieval-augmented and tool-using LLM systems, and the problem becomes harder to characterise in multilingual settings. We present MIPIAD, a defense framework evaluated on English and Bangla that combines a sequence classifier fine-tuned from Qwen2.5-1.5B via LoRA (XLPID), TF-IDF lexical features, and validation-tuned ensembling through late fusion, stacking, and gradient boosting. The framework is evaluated on a synthetic benchmark built from BIPIA(Yi et al., 2023) templates spanning five task families – email, table, QA, abstract, and code-comprising over 1.43 million generated samples, with train and test splits using mutually exclusive attack categories. Across the experiments, lexical signals prove strong (TF-IDF+SVM F1=0.77), and the hybrid XLPID+TF-IDF ensemble achieves the best overall F1 (0.9205) while the Boosting Ensemble achieves the best AUROC (0.9378). Ensemble methods consistently reduce the English-Bangla cross-lingual gap relative to standalone neural models. The pipeline is designed for extensibility: NLLB-200 supports over 200 languages and XLPID's multilingual backbone can be retargeted to additional languages without architectural changes; empirical validation is currently limited to English and Bangla
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Machine Learning

PerCaM-Health: Personalized Dynamic Causal Graphs for Healthcare Reasoning

Personalized healthcare decisions require reasoning about how physiological and behavioral variables influence an individual patient over time. Existing temporal causal discovery methods are poorly matched to this setting: cohort-level models provide stable but non-personalized structures, while per-patient discovery is unreliable because individual trajectories are short, noisy, irregular, and non-stationary. This creates a fundamental gap between population-level causal modeling and the patient-specific, time-varying mechanisms needed for intervention reasoning. We introduce PerCaM-Health, a framework for learning personalized dynamic causal graphs from longitudinal health data. The framework learns a knowledge-guided population temporal graph, then conservatively adapts and evolves it using patient-specific temporal evidence and rolling-window updates, producing interpretable and auditable graph sequences. By coupling these graphs with temporal structural equations, the framework enables patient-level counterfactual queries, such as estimating short-horizon outcome changes under hypothetical behavioral interventions. Experiments on a semi-synthetic dynamic health benchmark show that PerCaM-Health improves graph recovery, dynamic edge tracking, and intervention direction accuracy compared to cohort-level, per-patient, and non-personalized temporal baselines. These results demonstrate that jointly modeling personalization and temporal evolution yields more reliable causal structure and intervention reasoning.
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All authors Elahe Khatibi, Ziyu Wang, Saba A. Farahani, Di Huang, Hung Cao, Ramesh Jain, Amir M. Rahmani

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.IT

How Big Should a Wireless Foundation Model Be?

Wireless foundation models are rapidly emerging as a key enabler of AI-native communication systems, yet a fundamental question remains unanswered: how large should these models be? We present a principled, physics-grounded answer, showing that the intrinsic dimensionality (dNL, the nonlinear manifold dimension of the channel) acts as the fundamental bottleneck, defining the scaling ceiling once a data-sufficient regime is reached. This dimensionality is not a design choice but a physical constraint: Maxwell's equations, finite scatterers, and antenna aperture inherently constrain wireless propagation environments to a limited number of degrees of freedom – spanning 5-35 across both real-world OTA measurements and 3GPP-standardized channel models we evaluate – orders of magnitude below the ~1,000-dimensional semantic space of language. As a consequence, we propose a scaling framework for wireless AI: taking NTN satellite channels as a representative case (dNL ~= 14), scaling gains diminish rapidly beyond ~30 million parameters, entering a stochastic asymptote above 70M where a further 1.6x increase (96M->150M) yields only 0.52 dB. Beyond this ceiling, inference-time adaptation via pilot-aided test-time training (TTT) is far more effective: a compact 12M-parameter model surpasses a static 96M model by 9.9 dB (NMSE, SNR = 20 dB) / 7.6 dB (MCM, SNR = 10 dB) at one-eighth the parameters. With dNL distributions validated across real-world indoor massive MIMO measurements, our scaling laws and TTT gains are demonstrated through NTN satellite simulations, reframing wireless AI design: channel geometry – not model size – fundamentally governs the scaling laws of physical-layer wireless AI.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from eess.SP

Resource-Element Energy Difference for Noncoherent Over-the-Air Federated Learning

Over-the-air federated learning (OTA-FL) reduces uplink latency by aggregating client updates directly over the wireless multiple-access channel. Coherent analog aggregation realizes this idea by aligning the phases and amplitudes of simultaneously transmitted waveforms, which typically requires synchronization, instantaneous channel-state information (CSI), phase compensation, and power control. Noncoherent energy detection removes the need for phase-coherent combining, but a single energy measurement is nonnegative and, therefore, cannot represent signed model updates. This paper introduces resource-element energy difference (REED), a noncoherent physical-layer primitive for continuous signed aggregation. REED maps the positive and negative parts of each real-valued update to transmit energies on paired orthogonal resource elements and estimates the signed sum by subtracting the corresponding received energies. The construction uses slow-timescale calibration of average channel powers, but does not require instantaneous transmitter- or receiver-side CSI or channel inversion. For independent Rayleigh fading, we derive exact first- and second-moment expressions for single-shot REED and for a chip-diverse extension that spreads each coordinate over multiple independently faded paired chips. The resulting variance laws separate fading-induced self-noise, signal-noise interaction, and receiver-noise fluctuation, giving an explicit diversity-resource tradeoff. More->The rest of abstract is in the paper.
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Machine Learning

When Are Experts Misrouted? Counterfactual Routing Analysis in Mixture-of-Experts Language Models

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models route each token to a small subset of experts, but whether the routes selected by a trained top-$k$ router are good ones is rarely evaluated directly. Holding the model fixed, we compare each standard route against sampled equal-compute alternatives for the same token and score each by the next-token probability it assigns to the realized token in a verified reasoning trajectory. The result is sharply token-conditional: the standard router is well-aligned with route utility on confident tokens but uninformative on the fragile tokens that drive hard reasoning, where lower-loss equal-compute routes consistently exist inside the frozen model but are not selected. The same pattern holds across Qwen3-30B-A3B, GPT-OSS-20B, DeepSeek-V2-Lite, and OLMoE-1B-7B, and follows structurally from how standard top-$k$ training evaluates routing decisions: the language modeling loss scores only the executed route, and load balancing depends only on aggregate routing statistics. A minimal router-only update to the final-layer router, leaving every expert and every other router frozen, is sufficient to shift pass@K on AIME 2024+2025 and HMMT 2025 for both Qwen3-30B-A3B and GPT-OSS-20B, suggesting that at least part of the failure reflects router-reachable misallocation rather than expert capacity alone.
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All authors Youngsik Yoon, Siwei Wang, Wei Chen, Jungseul Ok

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

PaT: Planning-after-Trial for Efficient Test-Time Code Generation

Beyond training-time optimization, scaling test-time computation has emerged as a key paradigm to extend the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, most existing methods adopt a rigid Planning-before-Trial (PbT) policy, which inefficiently allocates test-time compute by incurring planning overhead even on directly solvable problems. We propose Planning-after-Trial (PaT), an adaptive policy for code generation that invokes a planner only upon verification failure. This adaptive policy naturally enables a heterogeneous model configuration: a cost-efficient model handles generation attempts, while a powerful model is reserved for targeted planning interventions. Empirically, across multiple benchmarks and model families, our approach significantly advances the cost-performance Pareto frontier. Notably, our heterogeneous configuration achieves performance comparable to a large homogeneous model while reducing inference cost by approximately 69%.
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All authors Youngsik Yoon, Sungjae Lee, Seockbean Song, Siwei Wang, Wei Chen, Jungseul Ok

Machine Learning

Experience Sharing in Mutual Reinforcement Learning for Heterogeneous Language Models

We introduce Mutual Reinforcement Learning, a framework for concurrent RL post-training in which heterogeneous LLM policies exchange typed experience while keeping separate parameters, objectives, and tokenizers. The framework combines a Shared Experience Exchange (SEE), Multi-Worker Resource Allocation (MWRA), and a Tokenizer Heterogeneity Layer (THL) that retokenizes text and aligns token-level traces across incompatible vocabularies. This substrate makes the experience-sharing design question operational across model families. We instantiate three controlled probes on top of GRPO: data-level rollout sharing via Peer Rollout Pooling (PRP), value-level advantage sharing via Cross-Policy GRPO Advantage Sharing (XGRPO), and outcome-level success transfer via Success-Gated Transfer (SGT). A contextual-bandit analysis characterizes their structural positions on a stability-support trade-off: PRP pays density-ratio variance and THL residual costs, XGRPO preserves on-policy actor support while changing scalar baselines, and SGT supplies a rescue-set score direction toward verified peer successes. In the evaluated regime, outcome-level sharing occupies the favorable point of this trade-off.
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All authors Xiaoze Liu, Dhananjay Ram, Yuting Zhang, Zhaoyang Zhang, Wei Xia, Stefano Soatto

Machine Learning

Sample Complexity of Stochastic Optimization with Integer Variables

We establish sample complexity results for stochastic optimization over the integers, especially with a view to understand the complexity with respect to the corresponding continuous optimization problem. We show that integer optimization can sometimes require strictly more samples and sometimes strictly smaller number of samples, depending on the structure of the objective and constraints. 1. For Lipschitz objectives over subsets of the $\ell_\infty$ ball, the statistical complexity of general stochastic mixed-integer, nonlinear, nonconvex optimization is exactly the same as stochastic linear optimization with just bound constraints. 2. For Lipschitz objectives over subsets of the $\ell_2$ ball, we show that integer optimization can require strictly *smaller* sample size compared to the continuous setting in a certain regime. To get to this result, we also establish tight sample complexity results for nonconvex continuous stochastic optimization which, to the best of our knowledge, do not appear in prior work. 3. For strongly convex, smooth objectives, integer optimization has high statistical complexity compared to the continuous setting. In particular, we show that integer optimization requires $\Omega(1/\epsilon^2)$ samples to report an $\epsilon$-approximate solution, compared to the well-known $O(1/\epsilon)$ sample complexity from the continuous optimization literature.
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All authors Hongyu Cheng, Yinghao Zheng, Marco Molinaro, Amitabh Basu

Machine Learning

Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device

This work focuses on the question of learning from a large number of devices with each device holding only a single sample of data. Several real-world applications exist to this one sample per client setup up including learning from fitness trackers, data/app usage aggregators, body-worn sensing devices, and daily event monitors to name a few. When a client has only one sample, the standard federated learning paradigm breaks down as a local update based on that single point is far from being useful, especially in the earlier rounds for estimation of the model coefficients. This utility is further weakened by the privacy-inducing noise applied at every round. This work caters to this problem to enable such clients to collaboratively contribute to effectively learn a global model without leaking the privacy of their data. The proposed approach injects a single, carefully calibrated noisy perturbation to transform the sample at each client, followed by a post-processed representation which is shared with the server. These representations aggregated at the server are processed to obtain an unbiased gradient update that in expectation matches the non-private centralized gradient while preserving data privacy. This approach is different than traditional private federated learning, where the communication payloads involve model coefficients as opposed to privately transformed data samples. This method enables devices with extremely limited data to collaborate and learn accurate, privacy-preserving models without requiring large local datasets or sacrificing individual privacy.
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All authors Praneeth Vepakomma, Amirhossein Reisizadeh, Samuel Horváth, Munther A. Dahleh

Machine Learning

Don't Learn the Shape: Forecasting Periodic Time Series by Rank-1 Decomposition

How few parameters do we really need to forecast a periodic time series? An hourly electricity series, reshaped as a 24-row matrix with one column per day, is approximately rank-1: a daily shape modulated by a daily level (median centered rank-1 energy 0.82 on GIFT-Eval). Should we learn the shape? Smoothing, shrinkage, and low-rank fits all seem like obvious upgrades over the simple average of the last K=2 cycles. On all 97 GIFT-Eval configurations, we tested 8 such alternatives (e.g., Fourier, EWMA, James-Stein, rank-r SVD): none significantly beats the frozen baseline under Holm correction; two are significantly worse. The resulting method, FLAIR, is (a) Effective: matches PatchTST on aggregate GIFT-Eval (relMASE 0.838 vs 0.849); (b) Compact: 28 scalars for hourly, 57 for weekly; (c) Fast: 22 minutes on one CPU core of a MacBook Pro; (d) Closed-form & Hands-Off: one SVD per period candidate, GCV-averaged Ridge, no GPU, no pre-training, no per-task tuning. In the high-rank-1, many-cycle regime, extra flexibility is estimation noise.
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Machine Learning

On the Robustness of Distribution Support under Diffusion Guidance

Diffusion guidance is a powerful technique that enables controllable and high-fidelity sample generation with diffusion models. At a high level, it modifies the score function by incorporating a guidance term that steers the generative process toward a desired condition. Despite its empirical success, the theoretical properties of diffusion guidance remain largely unexplored, and it is not well understood why it consistently produces high-quality samples. In this work, we explain the effectiveness of diffusion guidance by establishing a robustness of support property. Specifically, we show that, given exact access to the score functions, guided diffusion processes almost always generate samples that remain close to the target support. This property is particularly desirable, as samples that lie off the support are often structurally implausible and may adversely affect downstream tasks. Our analysis covers both Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIM) and Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM), and applies to a wide range of discretization schemes induced by exponential integrators. Our results provide a rigorous foundation for understanding why diffusion guidance produces physically meaningful and structurally plausible samples.
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Machine Learning

Improved Model-based Reinforcement Learning with Smooth Kernels

For continuous state-action space scenarios, classical reinforcement learning (RL) theory predominantly focuses on low-rank Markov decision processes (MDPs), which provide sample-efficient guarantees at the expense of restrictive structural assumptions. Kernel smoothing model-based approaches offer a promising alternative paradigm that instead leverages the smoothness of the MDP and employs non-parametric kernel smoothing estimates of transition dynamics. This paper proposes a new kernel-smoothing model-based approach for online reinforcement learning in finite-horizon settings under Lipschitz continuity assumptions on the MDP. By incorporating a Bernstein-style exploration bonus into the kernel smoothing framework, our method achieves a regret bound which improves upon the state-of-the-art regret bound in its dependence on the horizon. The theoretical advancement relies on a delicate analysis of the synergy between Bernstein-style bonuses and kernel smoothing, where a new tight Bernstein-type concentration inequality for martingales may be of independent interest.
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Machine Learning

Same Brain, Different Prediction: How Preprocessing Choices Undermine EEG Decoding Reliability

Electroencephalography (EEG) is a cornerstone of brain-computer interfaces and clinical neuroscience, yet deep learning models are typically trained and evaluated under a single, unreported preprocessing pipeline. We formalize preprocessing choices as a counterfactual intervention space and show that EEG predictions are surprisingly unstable under this space: across six datasets spanning four paradigms, up to 42% of trial-level predictions flip when only the preprocessing changes, a variability that standard uncertainty methods do not explicitly quantify because they condition on a fixed preprocessing pipeline. We provide three tools to make this instability measurable, decomposable, and reducible. First, a Walsh-Hadamard decomposition of the 2^7 pipeline space reveals that sensitivity is near-additive in practice under the binary intervention design, enabling efficient step-by-step optimization. Second, we introduce Preprocessing Uncertainty (PU), a per-trial diagnostic that captures a dimension of instability complementary to model-based confidence. Third, we study Normalized Adaptive PGI (NA-PGI), a graph-structured regularizer that exploits the compositional structure of preprocessing interventions as one mitigation strategy with clear scope conditions.
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All authors Dengzhe Hou, Zihao Wu, Lingyu Jiang, Zirui Li, Fangzhou Lin, Kazunori D. Yamada

Machine Learning

HARMONY: Bridging the Personalization-Generalization Gap by Mitigating Representation Skew in Heterogeneous Split Federated Learning

Mobile devices face diverse resource constraints and non-IID data class distributions, requiring fast on-device inference for local in-distribution (ID) classes and on-demand remote support for client-specific out-of-distribution (OOD) classes. Hybrid split federated learning (Hybrid SFL) couples personalized client-side front ends (supporting early exit) with a generalized server-side backend for fallback inference, balancing accuracy and cost. However, under client architectural heterogeneity, the existing hybrid SFL suffers from representation skew, where features from customized extractors fail to align in the shared space, leading to a sharp degradation in the server model responsible for OOD prediction. We propose HARMONY, the first hybrid SFL framework to support heterogeneous client architectures. HARMONY modifies meta-learning to simulate diverse extractors across parameters and architectures, and to learn to personalize. To mitigate representation skew, HARMONY conducts server-side contrastive learning to align extracted features, neither sacrificing clients' personalization nor sharing raw labels. Compared to the state of the art across multiple datasets and model families, HARMONY improves test accuracy by up to 43.0%/28.3% without/with OOD, respectively, while maintaining acceptable latency.
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All authors Jiseok Youn, You Rim Choi, Goodsol Lee, Sangtae Ha, Hyung-Sin Kim, Saewoong Bahk

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Hallucination Detection via Activations of Open-Weight Proxy Analyzers

We introduce a proxy-analyzer framework for detecting hallucinations in large language models. Instead of looking inside the generating model, our system reads already-generated text through a small locally hosted open-weight model and spots hallucinations using the reader's own internal activations. This works just as well when the generator is a closed API like GPT-4 as when it is any open-weight model. We built eighteen features grounded in how transformers process text, covering residual stream norms, per-head source-document attention, entropy, MLP activations, logit-lens trajectories, and three new token-level grounding statistics. We trained a stacking ensemble on 72,135 samples from five hallucination datasets. We tested across seven analyzer architectures from 0.5 billion to 9 billion parameters: Qwen2.5 at 0.5B and 7B, Gemma-2 at 2B and 9B, Pythia at 1.4B, and LLaMA-3 at both 3B and 8B. Across all seven, we consistently beat ReDeEP's token-level AUC of 0.73 on RAGTruth by 7.4 to 10.3 percentage points. Qwen2.5-7B reached an F1 of 0.717, just above ReDeEP's 0.713, while Qwen2.5-0.5B hit 0.706. The most striking finding is how tightly all seven models cluster: AUC spans only 2.3 percentage points across an eighteen-fold difference in model size. Even more surprising, our 3B LLaMA outperforms our 8B LLaMA on RAGTruth, showing that bigger is not always better even within the same model family. Both RAGTruth and LLM-AggreFact include outputs from multiple LLM families, so our results are not skewed toward any particular generator.
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Machine Learning

FAME: Forecasting Academic Impact via Continuous-Time Manifold Evolution

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to brainstorm and evaluate research ideas, yet assessing such judgments is fundamentally difficult because the true impact of a new idea may take years to emerge. We address this challenge by using the impact forecasting of human-authored manuscripts as a verifiable proxy task. In a prospective forecasting study, we find that frontier LLMs fail to reliably distinguish high-impact papers from ordinary publications, suggesting that static text-based judging is insufficient for scientific evaluation. To address this limitation, we propose $\textbf{FAME}$ ($\underline{\text{F}}$orecasting $\underline{\text{A}}$cademic Impact via Continuous-Time $\underline{\text{M}}$anifold $\underline{\text{E}}$volution), a spatiotemporal framework for modeling the dynamic trajectories of scientific topics. FAME projects papers into a dynamic latent space informed by textual features and a verified knowledge-flow graph, learning geometric constraints that align impactful manuscripts with the forward momentum of their fields. Experiments on 3,200 arXiv papers across three fast-evolving subfields show that FAME consistently and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art LLM evaluators in prospective multidimensional impact forecasting. Furthermore, integrating FAME's dynamic geometric signals into LLMs significantly improves their forecasting performance. These results support manuscript impact forecasting as a useful, measurable proxy benchmark and position FAME as a strong, trajectory-aware foundation for automated scientific evaluation.
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All authors Jianrong Ding, Jianyuan Zhong, Zhengyan Shi, Qiang Xu

Machine Learning

Arrow: A Foundation Model for Causal Discovery

We introduce Arrow, a foundation model for zero-shot causal discovery on observational tabular data. Arrow factorizes a directed acyclic graph into an undirected skeleton and a topological order, guaranteeing acyclicity by construction. Given a new dataset, it uses a transformer-based architecture to contextualize variables within and across observations, then predicts skeleton edge probabilities and node order scores that together define a graph. Arrow is trained in a supervised fashion on synthetic datasets with ground-truth graphs, using an end-to-end differentiable directed edge composite likelihood induced by the skeleton-order factorization. The training distribution spans diverse graph families, functional forms, noise models, and dataset shapes. Across in- and out-of-distribution synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real datasets, Arrow matches or outperforms existing causal discovery methods at substantially lower inference cost than competitive alternatives. Our results demonstrate that large-scale pretraining on diverse synthetic data can yield zero-shot causal discovery models that are fast, accurate, and reusable on new datasets.
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All authors Ryan Thompson, He Zhao, Daniel M. Steinberg, Edwin V. Bonilla