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Wednesday 30 September

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Disentangling Self-Distillation: Measuring and Modeling Acquisition and Retention

Self-distillation with privileged context adapts a language model from demonstrations by letting the model, once conditioned on a reference response, teach its context-free copy token by token. Our taxonomy reveals existing methods differ along three entangled axes: (i) the rollout source (student or teacher), (ii) the teacher coupling (frozen, or an exponential moving average of the student at some coupling rate) and (iii) the KL direction (reverse or forward), yet these axes are usually studied in fixed combinations and have led to conflicting conclusions. We formalize a unifying framework to encompass all self-distillation methods vs classic supervised fine-tuning: we train every combination of the three axes, on Qwen2.5-7B and Ministral-3-3B across ordinary and contradictory tasks, totaling 1,200 adaptation runs, to systematically investigate the impact of the above axes. We propose a controlled model of the same objective to explain the resulting acquisition-retention trade-offs. We find that (i) the rollout source matters mostly where the task contradicts the pretrained behavior: there teacher rollouts raise acquisition well above what student rollouts achieve, with almost no change in retention; (ii) the teacher coupling changes acquisition most, on every task: acquisition rises with the coupling rate, then falls past a task-specific rate; (iii) switching the KL direction costs retention in one model but not the other so which axis to tune first depends on the model. The controlled model reproduces the three trends.
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All authors Luis Zuin, Alexis Huet, Dario Rossi, Zied Ben Houidi

Machine Learning

Towards Robust Time Series Learning via Capacity-Centric Modulation

Sample-level reliability heterogeneity is common in deep time series learning. Standard training pipelines apply a uniform regularization setting to all samples, which can under-regularize corrupted samples and over-restrict clean samples. Common robustness approaches filter observations in data space or impose priors on latent representations. We propose Capacity-Centric Modulation (CCM) as a complementary, sample-adaptive regularization principle. Under this principle, we introduce SACM (Sample-Adaptive Capacity Modulation), a task-agnostic framework that exploits spectral sparsity to assign sample-wise dropout probabilities along internal activation paths. SACM integrates into existing backbones without architectural redesign and preserves the deterministic inference pipeline. Across 301 real-world dataset-backbone pairs covering 9 forecasting, 32 classification, and 4 anomaly-detection datasets, SACM reduces forecasting MSE by 6.7% on average and improves classification accuracy and point-adjusted F1 by 3.04% and 17.05%, respectively, relative to unmodified backbones, with zero test-time overhead.
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All authors Siru Zhong, Senzhang Wang, James T. Kwok, Yuxuan Liang

Machine Learning

Correcting CondOT: Exact Finite-Step Sampling in Gaussian Flow Matching

Flow matching generates samples by gradually transforming noise into data. In practice, using a finite number of sampling steps introduces a numerical error that depends on the chosen schedule. We study this dependence for Gaussian targets and the explicit midpoint sampling method, using the exact flow field. We measure sampling error by the squared Wasserstein distance between the target distribution and the final distribution produced by the midpoint sampler. We show that the standard conditional optimal transport (CondOT) schedule cancels the leading midpoint error and improves the general convergence bound, even when the sampling steps are unequally spaced. On a uniform grid of $S$ sampling steps, we fix the signal schedule at $\alpha_t=t$ and prove the existence of scalar noise schedules $\beta_t$ that approach the CondOT noise schedule $1-t$ at rate $1/S$ and yield exact Gaussian sampling for every sufficiently large $S$. Controlled Gaussian experiments illustrate the convergence rates and exact calibration.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.DC

About the Influence of Workflow Topology on Task Intensity Prediction through Graph Learning

Efficient resource provisioning for large-scale workflows on cloud infrastructures is a critical performance engineering challenge. These workflows are often structured as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where under-provisioning can cause critical bottlenecks and over-provisioning leads to unnecessary costs. Accurate, task-level prediction of resource intensity (e.g., CPU load and memory usage) is essential for mitigating these issues. While task-level features are commonly used for prediction, the performance impact of the workflow's overall topological structure is often overlooked or assumed. The central question of our work is: To what extent does what part of the DAG topology influence task-level resource intensity, and what is the most effective way to model this influence? This paper presents a comprehensive benchmark to systematically quantify the impact of graph topology on task intensity prediction. We evaluate and compare a spectrum of modeling approaches. Our findings demonstrate that topology is a critical feature for accurate prediction. Models incorporating important topological information, even through simple handcrafted features, significantly outperform baseline models. We show that graph-native models provide the highest accuracy, achieving low mean absolute errors for both CPU and memory predictions, and can still be combined with simple topological features that they do not learn for better performance.
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All authors Max Otto, Haci Ismail Aslan, Joel Witzke, Jonathan Bader, Odej Kao

Machine Learning

Also Small Models Can Reasonably Self-Evaluate Their Confidence

This study systematically evaluates self-evaluation-based uncertainty quantification across different language models of varying sizes on question-answering tasks spanning general to specialized knowledge domains. Using various self-evaluation methods where models judge their own predictions, we examine how model scale and domain specificity affect the quality of self-assessed confidence signals. Our results reveal that while accuracy predictably declines with smaller models and more specialized domains, the reliability of self-evaluated confidence remains largely stable across both dimensions. This independence means the most capable model is not necessarily the best at self-assessing prediction reliability. These findings suggest that smaller models can achieve reasonable self-assessed confidence despite lower accuracy, making them viable for resource-constrained deployments.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Beyond the Shadows of Plato's Cave: Evaluating False Memory in Autonomous Agents via Counterfactual Reasoning

Autonomous agents increasingly rely on memory to generalize beyond their training environments. However, agents are bounded by what they have seen and believed, and leveraging such memories in unseen environments can introduce biases into their internal beliefs. We formalize this phenomenon as false memory, which can arise from spurious correlations, environment shifts, and knowledge conflicts. Despite its importance, false memory is difficult to evaluate because it stems from agent internal beliefs and is easily confounded with ordinary generalization failures. Therefore, we propose FAME, a training-free framework that evaluates false memory through the evolution of agent beliefs under counterfactual reasoning. Specifically, counterfactual scenarios reveal how beliefs change as the latent concept of memory shifts under hypothetical interventions; thus, measuring the resulting concept drift provides a signal for distinguishing faithful versus false memory. Such concepts can be estimated from agent hidden states before answer generation, avoiding the need for reward design or answer sampling. Empirical experiments reveal that simply monitoring answers often fails to detect false memory, while FAME achieves AUROCs of 76.2% - 96.7% across false-memory settings, and outperforms the best baseline by 3.4% - 23.3% across realistic benchmarks, spanning math reasoning (GSM-Symbolic), code generation (GitChameleon), and complex reasoning (BigBench-Hard). We further release corresponding counterfactual templates and facilitate future research on false memory.
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All authors Quan M. Tran, Zhuo Huang, Zhen Fang, Jing Zhang, Mingming Gong, Tongliang Liu

Machine Learning

T-ARC: Topology-Aware Randomized Clustering via Distributionally Robust Stochastic Block Models

In this work, we introduce a new clustering method, namely T-ARC (Topology-Aware Randomized Clustering), that corrects the geometric bias of K-means by embedding topological information directly into the optimization objective. Building on the assumption that the data admits an underlying hidden structure modeled via a latent graph, the idea is to uncover this information through the interplay between the standard K-means data-fidelity term and a graph-cut penalty, which discourages cluster assignments inconsistent with the connectivity structure of the data. To render this coupling tractable, the latent graph is modeled as a random realization from a Stochastic Block Model (SBM), whose scalar parameter is optimized within a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework, yielding a closed-form proximal update. Both SBM and DRO are informed by a persistence-based similarity matrix derived from zero-dimensional persistent homology ($H_0$), which translates the multiscale connectivity structure of the data into a pairwise topological prior. The overall optimization proceeds via Block Coordinate Descent; convergence is established through a global Lyapunov functional: the deterministic blocks satisfy monotonic descent, while the stochastic graph update satisfies descent in expectation, so that the expected energy converges. Experiments on synthetic datasets with non-convex geometries and on random subsets of Fashion-MNIST show that T-ARC recovers latent topological structures where K-means fails, achieving the highest accuracy on curved and interleaved clusters while remaining competitive, and markedly more stable than K-means, on real data.
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All authors Serena Grazia De Benedictis, Andersen Ang, Nicoletta Del Buono, Flavia Esposito, Laura Selicato

Machine Learning

Understanding Head Geometry and Dynamics in Federated Regression through a Natural Solution Selection Rule: An Unconstrained Feature Model Analysis

In federated averaging, local objectives can admit multiple optimal heads, making the aggregate depend on which heads clients return. We study this ambiguity in federated multivariate regression with private backbones and a shared linear head, using an unconstrained feature model (UFM) that treats training-sample features as free variables. We introduce a natural selection rule: each client returns the optimal head closest to the broadcast head. We show that global minimization with a vanishing proximal penalty on the head realizes this rule. When the clients' optimal Gram matrices and the initial shared Gram matrix are positive definite, the shared Gram matrix follows a closed recursion and converges to the unique Bures-Wasserstein barycenter of the clients' optimal Gram matrices. Even with this alignment, the limit generally differs from the centralized optimal Gram matrix. We decompose this gap into three positive-semidefinite terms arising from differences in client target means, covariance heterogeneity, and averaging the aligned heads. A correction based on a one-time exchange of target means and covariances recovers the centralized optimal Gram matrix in one round under exact local optimization and the same selection rule. We verify these results numerically in the UFM and test its predictions on five tabular and five image regression datasets using deep networks with feature regularization and long local training. In these experiments, ordinary training approaches the predicted barycenter, while a weak proximal penalty improves endpoint agreement and yields trajectories that closely follow the predicted Gram dynamics. The correction moves the final Gram matrices close to the centralized UFM prediction.
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Machine Learning

Mutual Equilibrium: Multimodal Representation Learning through Reciprocal Feedback

This work proposes a mutual feedback architecture, MEQ, that refines the two inputs, of possibly different modalities, into a pair of coupled embeddings such that each embedding reflects the information of the other. The core idea is to incorporate continuous interchange of information between the two inputs. This idea leads to a mutual feedback architecture consisting of two components whose outputs are fed back into the other. The final output of this model is defined as the fixed point of this interaction. We provide theoretical analysis that offers interpretation of this model as well as design choices to prevent failure cases. We show the benefits of MEQ through classification and visual grounding tasks spanning various datasets. Quantitatively, our model outperforms or shows competitive performance on concatenation-based multimodal classification problems. Qualitatively, the proposed interactive mechanism allows the model to progressively refine the visual grounding when paired with complementary modality, thus demonstrating the power of mutual feedback under such settings.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Distributionally robust linear regression through the lens of adversarial training

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) studies parameter estimation under uncertainty in the underlying probability distribution and has emerged as a principled framework for analyzing robustness and generalization. In particular, Wasserstein DRO, with distributional uncertainty induced by the Wasserstein distance, generalizes several popular regularizers. This paper studies Wasserstein DRO linear regression, unifying square-root Lasso and adversarial linear regression as important special cases. We prove that many properties of these two special cases carry over to this general method. In particular, we show (i) deterministic and non-asymptotic in-sample error bounds $O(n^{-1/2})$ in general and $O(n^{-1})$ under design matrix and sparsity conditions; (ii) insensitivity to the noise level, also known as the pivotal property; and (iii) solution equivalences for small and large ambiguity sets. The key proof step is to recast the method into a quadratic form, mimicking adversarial linear regression. We also show that the method can be solved efficiently, and we validate our findings through numerical simulations.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Synthetic Data Characterization via Training Dynamics

Interpreting properties of LLM-generated data is important for understanding its utility and limitations across learning tasks. In this work, we characterize synthetic data through sample-level learnability, studying variation among LLM families and scales, alongside human-written data as a reference. We first generate synthetic datasets spanning single- and multi-label classification, labeling, and tree prediction tasks. We then derive empirical data distributions from encoder training dynamics for both machine and organic data, and estimate the robustness of these distributions across encoders. Finally, we evaluate how data selection strategies based on these learnability signals affect both data sources differently.
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Machine Learning

Raw-Routed Mixture of Adapters: A Causal Intervention for Routing Collapse in Time Series Foundation Models

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) commonly adapt to new data by attaching a single trainable head to a frozen backbone, a one-size-fits-all setup that underfits heterogeneous regimes. Replacing the head with a mixture of experts is the standard upgrade, but on instance-normalized backbones (the dominant TSFM design class) it fails: routing entropy collapses to zero and one expert absorbs every input, a failure we call normalization-induced routing collapse. Standard MoE rescue mechanisms do not repair it, because the cause is in the router's input, not its optimization. Pre-encoder normalization strips the statistics a router would need to tell regimes apart. A mutual-information decomposition makes this precise and yields a signal-ratio that, computed before training, predicts dataset vulnerability (Spearman $\rho = -0.88$). Eight causal controls, including a vision-modality replication, isolate instance normalization as the cause. The prescription is a minimal causal intervention: Raw-Routed Mixture of Adapters (RR-MoA), which routes on the raw, pre-normalization input. Under a strictly frozen backbone, RR-MoA wins 54/54 comparisons against the strongest fixed adapter and significantly outperforms LoRA, TRACE, AdaMix, and full fine-tuning. The effect generalizes across six backbones and an imputation task. Frozen RR-MoA also beats full fine-tuning by 12-79% (the Frozen Paradox); two architecturally distinct variants confirm the principle generalizes beyond this specific router.
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All authors Hung Phan, Thuy T. Nguyen, Minh Ngoc Dinh, Nhat-Quang Tran

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CV

CAST: Causal Advantage-Structured Training with Spatially Grounded Compositional Rewards for Diffusion Models

Online reinforcement learning has been extended to flow matching for diffusion model (DM) image generation. However, this paradigm faces three limitations: (1) Window selection. Existing methods manually set the stochastic differential equation (SDE) sampling window, i.e., the denoising steps where exploration noise is injected. We instead determine it from each model's denoising trajectory. (2) Reward saturation. Current methods rely on scoring models trained on human annotations; we find that such scores are extremely high and nearly indistinguishable on the latest SOTA open-source DMs, making advantage estimation largely ineffective. (3) Sample inefficiency. A single scalar reward collapses different failure modes into almost identical scores, leaving minimal gradient guidance for targeted improvement. To address these issues, we propose CAST (Causal Advantage-Structured Training), an RL fine-tuning method for pretrained DMs, which (1) identifies the denoising step at which each model fixes the objects and their spatial arrangement in the image and uses that timing to set the SDE window, (2) decomposes each prompt via Causal Scene Graphs (CSG) into verifiable-atoms, i.e., minimal semantic units such as an object, count, attribute, or spatial relation that can each be checked independently, and rewards each atom separately, and (3) projects the signed atom-level advantages into pixel space through teacher-forced attention and uses them to spatially weight the SDE policy objective. We fine-tune two of the strongest open-source DMs, FLUX.2-dev and Qwen-Image-2512, with CAST, and evaluate them on GenEval 2, a compositional benchmark, and on Qwen-Image-Bench for overall quality. Within almost the same training budget, CAST's improvement over the base model on the most challenging GenEval 2 prompts is up to 3.07x that of Flow-GRPO, while overall generation quality also improves.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Principal Component Regression Dominates all Monotone Spectral Filters for Linear Regression

We compare the instance-wise, finite-sample risks of monotone spectral filters for linear regression, a broad class of estimators including principal component regression (PCR), gradient descent (GD), and ridge regression. We show that PCR dominates all monotone spectral filters: compared to any such filter, the risk of optimally tuned PCR is no bigger by a constant factor for all problems. Furthermore, the dominance is strong if the filter is separated from step functions (e.g., GD and ridge): there exist problem instances for which the risk of PCR is smaller by a polynomial factor in sample size dependence. Our comparison results show that PCR is optimal and thus admissible among monotone filters, significantly extending Wu et al. (2026)'s result that GD strongly dominates ridge. From a technical perspective, we establish new upper and lower bounds for general spectral filters, which are instance-wise sharp when specialized to ridge or GD, recovering or improving the best-known bounds.
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All authors Juno Kim, Hengyu Fu, Peter Bartlett, Jason D. Lee, Jingfeng Wu

Machine Learning

Network-based Spatial Context Retrieval for Open-weight LLMs: A Faithfulness Benchmark for Grounded Geographic Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) encode substantial latent geographic knowledge, yet they reason poorly over space and are unreliable when queried from coordinates alone. Useful behaviour emerges only when structured spatial context is supplied in the prompt. This raises a question geographic evaluation has left unexamined: once the right context is supplied, does the model reason from it, or override it with its own parametric recall? We take up this question with an open pipeline for network-based spatial context retriev-al. In it, the surroundings of a selected point are defined by the pedestrian street network, the area actually reachable on foot. Using only open data and open-weight models, the pipeline retrieves features from OpenStreetMap and the GHS-POP population grid, computes indicators over the network catchment in code, and injects them as a compact spatial brief. On this basis we build a faithfulness benchmark. It labels every claim a model makes by its source (grounded in the brief, or drawn from training knowledge) and its correctness, and it probes each case with a planted false premise that the brief refutes. We evaluate sixteen open-weight model configurations across three families (Qwen, Gemma and Llama, with Gemma in two generations), four size classes and, where available, both thinking and non-thinking modes, on three con-trasting cities, resampling every case over ten seeds. The results show that resistance to the planted premise varies more strongly by model family and generation than by scale, while brief-reading competence forms a partly separate dimension. These behaviours are not captured by conventional world-correctness scores or single-shot evaluation. We release the implementation, spatial briefs, model outputs, and claim-level labels as a reproducible workflow at github.com/perezjoan/NSCR-LLM.
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Machine Learning

From Imitation to Reward Discovery: On-Policy Warmup for Agentic RL

Reinforcement learning with a verifiable reward (RLVR) offers a scalable approach to training language-model agents, yet sparse outcome rewards can leave early training with little signal for policy improvement. We identify an On-Policy Acceleration Phenomenon: in our main comparisons, RLVR initialized with on-policy distillation reaches high performance earlier in training and achieves both higher average performance during subsequent RLVR and higher final performance than the alternative baselines. Motivated by this observation, we study On-Policy Warmup (OPW), a teacher-guided stage in which the student trains with teacher supervision on its own interaction trajectories before transitioning to RLVR. Unlike imitation on fixed teacher-generated trajectories, OPW targets states induced by the student's own decisions, including imperfect actions and recovery situations. We provide a theoretical explanation by connecting on-policy reverse-KL distillation to trajectory-level distribution matching. Under a competent teacher and sufficiently small population distillation loss, this connection yields a lower bound on initial verifier success and a corresponding bound on reward-discovery complexity. For group-relative RLVR, we further characterize when increased success probability produces more reward-informative groups. Together, our findings support on-policy distillation as an effective warmup for agentic RLVR and identify initial reward discovery as a mechanism that can contribute to the observed acceleration.
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All authors Yitong Qiao, Tiantian He, Lei Liu, Yue Shen, Jian Wang, Jinjie Gu, Zhixuan Chu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

QuantCode Model: Specializing Language Models for Executable Algorithmic Trading Code

Large language models are strong general-purpose code generators, but executable algorithmic trading remains a demanding specialization target: a model must translate a natural-language strategy specification into correct program logic for a specialized trading framework, execute on historical data, produce trades, and remain semantically faithful to the request. We study two complementary mechanisms for specializing language models for this setting: continued pretraining on algorithmic-trading framework code and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on agent-validated request-to-code pairs. Evaluation is centered on QuantCode-Bench, our 400-task benchmark for Backtrader strategy generation, together with a repository-level SWE-bench-like track. Continued pretraining improves single-turn Judge Pass from 41.5% to 47.5% for Qwen3.5-397B-A17B and from 27.8% to 33.0% for Qwen3.6-35B-A3B. SFT applied after continued pretraining yields a larger gain for Qwen3.6-35B-A3B, reaching 58.2% Judge Pass and 83.5% successful backtests; in agentic evaluation it raises first-turn success from 22.3% to 58.3% and final success after up to 10 turns from 47.5% to 79.5%. Continued pretraining alone improves first-turn agentic success but lowers final success after repair from 47.5% to 32.5%, consistent with degraded instruction following, whereas SFT improves both. We also identify a capability-retention failure: domain specialization degrades parser-conformant structured tool calling, and targeted recovery SFT restores tool-call formatting but not the base checkpoint's repository-level agent performance. The results show that framework-oriented pretraining, validated SFT, and explicit capability-retention evaluation address distinct failure modes in domain-specific executable code generation.
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Machine Learning

Awakening of the Buddha: Subspace Learning During Population-Loss Plateaus

Population loss can remain nearly constant while a neural network learns a substantially more predictive representation. We establish this separation for two-layer ReLU and leaky-ReLU networks trained on Gaussian inputs by simultaneous fixed-step population gradient descent on all parameters. For structured additive teachers whose links are positive mixtures of Gaussian-damped cubics in $H^1(\gamma)$, we give explicit conditions under which small IID Gaussian initialization yields a high-probability guarantee: at a checkpoint during a high-loss plateau, minimum alignment between the rank-$r$ teacher subspace and the leading $r$-dimensional eigenspace of the predictor's average gradient outer product (AGOP) increases by at least $1/2$, and the minimum refit MSE under unchanged coefficient budgets decreases by more than $0.399$, both relative to initialization. The same trajectory subsequently attains a trained loss below every value in the plateau window. A complementary result treats unequal-weight cubic teachers and small additive Sobolev perturbations using projected-feature refits. For SwiGLU networks with an exactly fitted intercept, we prove leading-AGOP alignment during a loss plateau at fixed width and dimension as Gaussian initialization vanishes, for square-integrable teachers with nonzero Hermite content of degree one, two, or three. A rank-one cubic specialization also gives simultaneous unrestricted-refit gains at a prescribed width. An approximation lower bound further shows that certain interaction targets retain nonzero error when ridge neurons are restricted to shared orthogonal axes within the teacher subspace. Population-moment experiments with ReLU students across 21 teachers and 50 initializations per teacher complement the analysis.
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Machine Learning

No Task Vector Is an Island: A Comprehensive Study on the Composability of Task Vectors from On-Policy Distillation

Task vectors provide a simple mechanism for composing learned capabilities through model merging. However, the composability of task vectors produced by on-policy distillation (OPD) remains largely unexplored. OPD trains a student using teacher feedback on student-generated trajectories, yielding parameter updates that differ from those produced by the teacher model, usually by reinforcement learning (RL). We therefore ask whether OPD task vectors can complement their RL teacher updates and compose effectively across tasks. Across five domains and two model architectures, we find evidence for both forms of composability. Within a task, merging OPD and RL task vectors can outperform both constituent models, even when the OPD student is weaker than its RL teacher. Across tasks, OPD task-vector compositions achieve higher average scores than corresponding RL compositions in seven of eight backbone-merging-rule comparisons. Parameter-space analyses reveal substantial non-collinearity between OPD and RL updates. Experiment in CODE domain on SMOLLM3-3B shows that the combined direction outperforms either constituent direction at the tested global update norm, supporting directional complementarity in this configuration. Across tasks, OPD updates also show lower overlap among the top-10% feed-forward channels ranked by update energy. Together, these results show that weaker standalone performance does not imply weaker task-vector composability. OPD task vectors can complement stronger RL teacher updates and combine effectively across tasks, highlighting composability as a distinct property for understanding and evaluating post-training updates.
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All authors Jingang Zhou, Feiyu Han, Han Zhu, Yuyi Zhou, Ruiyang Zhang, Jian Xu, Sirui Gao, Qingpei Guo, Xu-Yao Zhang

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Advancing Entropy-Level Credit Assignment in RLVR via Proximal Entropy Policy Optimization

Value-model-free RLVR methods such as GRPO assign uniform advantages to all tokens in a rollout, ignoring that tokens contribute unequally. Recent methods use token entropy as an importance proxy but compute it globally across the batch, conflating importance with prompt difficulty and positional trends. We argue that importance should instead be measured relative to the local context of each token. We introduce proximal entropy, a local measure of token importance relative to neighboring tokens, and prove it is invariant to both confounders. Proximal Entropy Policy Optimization (PEPO) uses it to weight per-token advantages and outperforms GRPO and entropy-based baselines on mathematical reasoning across Qwen3-1.7B, Qwen3-4B, and Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct. We also show the formulation generalizes to other algorithms where substituting proximal entropy into existing methods improves, and applying it to single-stream RL succeeds where global entropy fails.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Towards Optimal Inventory Control under Censored Demand: A Biased Sample-Average Approximation Approach

We study data-driven multi-period lost-sales inventory control under censored demand, where a stockout reveals only that demand exceeded the stocking level. We develop a unified, model-based framework for policy learning from censored data, built on a new cost decomposition for base-stock policies and a biased sample-average approximation (SAA) approach. The cost decomposition allows us to propose a new coverage condition under which censored observations are informative enough for sample-efficient policy learning. Guided by this coverage condition, we design two biased SAA algorithms: an upper-biased one that achieves near-optimal sample complexity under the offline coverage condition, and a lower-biased one that actively generates the required coverage and achieves near-optimal regret online. More broadly, this biased SAA approach provides a general principle for implementing pessimism and optimism under censored feedback, which may be of independent interest.
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All authors Yuxuan Han, Xiaoyu Fan, Jiawei Zhang, Zhengyuan Zhou

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Can Computation from Earlier Problems Help LLMs Solve New Ones?

Large language models often solve independent problems in the same conversation. Can computation from earlier problems help them solve new ones? To answer this question, we first conduct preliminary experiments showing that retained history can raise or lower later-turn accuracy, even within the same domain. To understand these effects, we use controlled replay to isolate internal state changes specific to each problem-history pairing. Across different histories, these changes preserve similar relationships among current problems. To improve reasoning under retained history, we introduce STAIR (Stale-Token Attention for Inter-query Reuse). STAIR captures keys and values from earlier response generation in a fixed bank. It learns to redirect current queries when they read this bank during prompt processing. The base model remains frozen; only 12,288 parameters are trained. Across three Qwen models and four benchmarks, STAIR improves average later-turn accuracy by up to 11.67 percentage points over the unmodified model with history.
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All authors Jipei He, Wenhui Tan, Xiaoyi Yu, Enver Sangineto, Fiorenzo Parascandolo, Rita Cucchiara, Ruihua Song

Machine Learning

Decoupled and Distilled: Task-Adaptive LoRA-Teachers with Ensemble Knowledge Transfer for Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning

Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning (FSCIL) addresses the challenge of learning new classes from very limited samples while retaining knowledge of previously learned ones. Although parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods with pre-trained models show promise for class-incremental learning, strict gradient-based constraints can be unreliable under severe data scarcity, while multi-expert approaches can impose substantial inference-time costs. We propose TALON (Task-Adaptive LoRA-Teachers with Ensemble Knowledge Transfer), an inference-efficient FSCIL framework. TALON dynamically allocates an independent LoRA-Teacher to each incremental task for task-specific representation learning, then distills multiple frozen teachers into a unified LoRA-Student through Ensemble Knowledge Transfer, eliminating runtime module selection or generation. A semantic-guided distillation strategy weights teacher contributions by feature-space similarity to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and overfitting. Across three class-order runs, TALON achieves comparable or better mean average accuracy across four FSCIL benchmarks, obtaining 86.68 +/- 1.22% on CUB200, 90.39 +/- 0.27% on CIFAR100, 78.38 +/- 0.94% on ImageNet-R, and 96.34 +/- 0.33% on miniImageNet. TALON uses up to 33x fewer deployment parameters and reduces average inference time per task to 26.7 s, a 41.70% reduction relative to ASP.
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All authors Hongwei Zhao, Rui Liu, Yansong Liu, Zhiyuan Zou, Yong Chen

Machine Learning

Beyond Simulation: Retain-and-Repair Neural Operators for Real-World Adaptation

Neural operators increasingly benefit from pretraining on numerical simulations, yet adapting them for real-world prediction remains challenging. We introduce the Retain-and-Repair Neural Operator (R$^2$NO), a framework for adapting simulation-pretrained operators to real-world data while retaining useful pretrained structure. The pretrained operator is first finetuned on real data and then frozen to provide a source prediction, and a shared repair module learns a sequence of refinements from the same observations. Using orthogonal Fourier projections, a spectral ensemble fits a small ridge regression within each cell of the Fourier domain and combines the refinements by weights fitted on a held-out split of the real data. The cells are defined jointly by radial ranges, angular sectors, and measured channels, allowing refinement depth to vary with frequency magnitude, with orientation, and across channels. Including the source prediction as a candidate makes retention available in every cell, and independently trained repair modules enter the same combination as additional candidates. On all RealPDEBench systems and six backbones, R$^2$NO consistently outperforms full finetuning and iterative refinement. The framework treats adaptation depth as a cell-specific choice learned from real data.
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Machine Learning

When, Not How Much: Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models on Sparse Events

Pretrained time-series foundation models (TSFMs) are evaluated as forecasters of future values, yet for sparse series many decisions depend only on which future periods contain activity. Standard benchmarks do not assess this. On five sparse datasets, we rank positions within forecast windows that contain both events and zeros. The released point forecasts of 12 TSFMs improve chance-corrected average precision over training-free references by at most 0.031, and in chance-corrected AUC the median TSFM falls below them on every dataset. With event supervision, linear probes of six frozen backbones improve on their backbone's point forecast in 29 of 30 backbone–dataset pairs. Averaging the predicted quantiles instead of taking their median improves the ranking of most TSFMs that forecast the median, and on two datasets the strongest such outputs rival the probes. The probes' advantage over raw-context learners depends on the dataset, and under the same probe, pretrained features outperform randomly initialized ones for five of six backbones. For sparse-event ranking, released point forecasts thus add little over simple references, whereas lightweight event heads on frozen TSFMs rank events better than these forecasts, and the best of them exceed gradient-boosted trees trained on the raw context on three of the five datasets. More broadly, assessing pretrained forecasters on tasks beyond value forecasting requires reporting their outputs, supervised probes of their representations, and raw-context and randomized controls side by side, since each supports a different conclusion.
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Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

TTLab at Daleel 2026: STAR-Ar, Sequence Tagging for Argument Recognition in Arabic

Argument Mining (AM) is a critical NLP task that remains significantly under-resourced in Arabic. This paper presents $\testtt{STAR-Ar}$, a BERT-BiLSTM-CRF architecture for argument discourse detection and classification, as our system for Daleel 2026, the inaugural Arabic argument mining shared task. The task requires the identification and classification of argumentative discourse units (ADUs) in debate and editorial texts.We jointly model these two objectives as a token-level sequence labeling task using a BERT-BiLSTM-CRF architecture that combines contextual transformer embeddings with structural transition constraints to support accurate span detection. $\testtt{STAR-Ar}$ achieves an F1-score of 72.69 on validation and 73.7 on test data. Our domain-specific analysis shows that models trained exclusively on editorials underperform those trained on debates, a disparity we primarily attribute to the smaller size of the editorial dataset. The code for $\testtt{STAR-Ar}$ is available at ${\href{https://github.com/ENTAILab/daleel_2026_Arabic-Argumentative-Discourse-Mining}{\faGithub~TTLab at Daleel 2026}}$
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Machine Learning

From Search to Signal: Online Post-Training in Automatic Heuristic Design

Large language model (LLM)-based automatic heuristic design (AHD) iteratively proposes and refines heuristics, pairing design rationales with executable code. Task-specific evaluators assess programs; execution outcomes and performance scores guide search. Many AHD systems keep the generator frozen; EvoTune and Co-Evolution of Algorithms and Language Model (CALM) instead update it from evaluated candidates. When such outcomes drive reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), they create a search-coupled loop: the evaluated candidate stream supplies both search-state updates and training signals for the model that generates future candidates. Yet validity and performance do not uniquely determine useful model updates; converting them into learning signals must account for the prompt and evolving search state that produced each candidate. We formulate online post-training of small open-weight LLMs in AHD as context-dependent signal construction and develop alternative mappings from program validity, task performance, and generation context to update signals. Using shared evaluated rollouts and matched update budgets, controlled experiments across AHD tasks and model families compare these mappings with online post-training baselines, testing their effects on validity, performance among valid proposals, and the yield of valid proposals that improve under contextual comparisons. Complementary checkpoint, frozen-search, and live-system evaluations assess whether proposal-level gains appear in updated checkpoint behavior and subsequent search, rather than arising solely from accumulated search state. A resource-matched comparison under pre-specified cost accounting tests whether online updating adds value beyond additional search with a frozen generator. Together, this design avoids treating end-to-end search gains alone as evidence of stronger heuristic-design capabilities.
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Machine Learning

Wavelet Flow Matching for Time Series

Synthetic time series are increasingly used for data augmentation, privacy-preserving data sharing, and downstream model development, yet faithfully reproducing both multi-scale temporal structure and cross-channel dependencies remains challenging. We study multivariate time-series generation through flow matching in the wavelet domain. By operating on multilevel discrete wavelet coefficients rather than directly in the time domain, the model represents coarse structure and progressively finer details at separate scales. Their naturally different variances further induce an implicit coarse-to-fine generative process without requiring an explicit multi-scale schedule. Since the transform acts independently on each channel, we pair it with a channel-token transformer whose attention directly models cross-channel dependencies. Across seven benchmark datasets and four sequence lengths, our method is best or tied on a majority of dataset-metric combinations, with the largest and most consistent improvements in Context-FID and discriminative score.
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All authors Lucas Poinsignon, Jorge da Silva Goncalves, Samuel Ruiperez-Campillo, Julia E. Vogt

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.AI

EHR-RobustGym: Benchmarking and Training Agents for Robust Clinical Reasoning

In hospital workflows, electronic health records (EHRs) are often noisy, and may not contain the evidence needed to confirm events or measurements referenced in a clinical query. Even when database retrieval succeeds, clinical agents can overlook such discrepancies and return plausible but unsupported answers. We introduce EHR-RobustGym, a scalable and interactive environment for evaluating and training robust clinical agents grounded in noisy EHRs. Built on MIMIC-IV hospital records (365K patients, 31 tables, and over 500M records), EHR-RobustGym comprises 5,486 Clean-Noise pairs spanning six clinical intents and both patient-level and population-level queries. The pairs test robustness to Record-level, Value-level, and Query-level noise, while interactive SQL/Python execution and outcome verification support trajectory collection and training. Evaluating multiple LLMs reveals substantial robustness gaps: average task success across proprietary and large-scale open-weight models drops from 62.2% on Clean questions to 37.9% on Noise questions. At k=4, pass^k consistency falls below 50% for most evaluated models, exposing instability in clinical task completion. Supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning in EHR-RobustGym improve performance, with gains generalizing to five external EHR benchmarks. Together, these results position EHR-RobustGym as a testbed for evaluating and improving the evidence-grounded robustness of clinical agents.
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All authors Yitong Qiao, Yancheng Jin, Lei Liu, Yue Shen, Jian Wang, Jinjie Gu, Zhixuan Chu

Machine Learning · Cross-listed from cs.CL

Exploring Heterogeneous Model Merging Approach for Complex Knowledge Transfer

Specialized models encode task-oriented behavior, but transferring that behavior to a general language model usually requires training, distillation, or representation alignment. We study whether such ability can instead be transferred directly at the parameter level. We apply two existing training-free heterogeneous merging methods, previously shown to transfer knowledge between general language models, to specialist-to-general transfer, projecting a specialist donor into the recipient's shape and interpolating backbone parameters without gradient updates or semantic alignment. Intersection-Merge (IM) injects a prefix-aligned donor slice matching the recipient shape, while Activate-Prune-Merge (APM) uses forward-pass activation statistics to select which donor dimensions to retain before injection. Across embedding, reranking, reward modeling, and MoE code-specialist transfer, both methods improve the general recipient, showing that simple heterogeneous merging can move capabilities across diverse specialist roles.
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All authors Jiahe Fan, Si Chen, Yinghao Hou, Wenbo Xia, Ke Xu, Hong Xie, Enhong Chen