Papers

We propose a framework, the Neyman Jackknife, for conservative variance estimation in finite-population causal inference under interference. Our approach provides a general, flexible blueprint that enables conservative variance estimation whenever we are able to recompute our target estimator with some treatment assignments omitted. In classical settings, our approach recovers estimators closely related to the Neyman estimator under SUTVA and the Newey-West HAC variance estimator for time series. Numerical experiments suggest that our general-purpose framework yields variance estimators that can match or even surpass the performance of baselines that were purpose-built for specific applications.

This paper considers multiple extended object tracking based on Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filtering, which gives the closed-form Bayesian solution for standard multiple extended object models with Poisson birth. To efficiently address the challenging extended object data association problem in PMBM filtering, we develop implementations of the extended object PMBM filter using blocked Gibbs sampling. By formulating the PMBM density on an augmented state space with auxiliary variables and leveraging the Poisson object measurement model, we first derive a joint posterior over potential objects, previous global hypotheses, and current measurement association variables, together with its corresponding factorization. This factorized representation leads to blocked Gibbs samplers that can efficiently generate high-weight global hypotheses and thereby provide an efficient implementation of the PMBM update step. We further introduce a collapsed Gibbs sampling variant, in which the Bernoulli object existence variables are marginalized out, yielding higher sampling efficiency, especially for the initiation of newly detected objects. The proposed methods, implemented under the gamma Gaussian inverse-Wishart model, are compared with existing extended object PMBM baselines with different data association strategies. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approaches achieve comparable tracking performance while requiring substantially less runtime.

The Laplacian operator transforms the image into its Laplacian field, which usually is sparse and satisfies a stable distribution. On the other hand, an image can be uniquely reconstructed from its Laplacian field via solving a Poisson equation with a proper boundary condition. Such uniqueness is mathematically guaranteed. Thanks to these properties, we propose to use the sparse Laplacian field to present the image. We first show that the Laplacian field is sparse and satisfies a stable distribution on hundreds images. Then, we show that the image can be accurately reconstruct from its Laplacian field. For the reconstruction task, we propose a shared-kernel wavelet neural network, which solves the Poisson equation and has three advantages. First, it has less than 0.0002M parameters, which is compact enough for most of devices. Second, it has linear computation complexity, leading to a real-time reconstruction. Third, it achieves higher accuracy than previous methods. Several numerical experiments are conducted to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the sparse Laplacian field and the proposed Poisson solver. The proposed method can be applied in a large range of applications such as image compression, low light enhancement, object tracking, etc.

We study multivariate tail-dependence compatibility for complete and partial signed tail families, treating lower-tail, upper-tail, and mixed configurations in one geometric witness representation indexed by active coordinate sets and sign patterns. For a complete signed tail family, witness generator weights w = (w_{I,sigma}) give a linear incidence parametrization and are recovered by explicit triangular inversion. Excluding the geometric scale p0, the complete case uses 3^d - 1 generator weights, matching the number of complete signed tail coefficients; for partial specifications, only selected target coefficients need be prescribed. At a fixed threshold p0 in (0, 1/2), the inversion identifies the normalized noncentral ternary cell masses of any realizing copula. Hence finite-threshold compatibility is characterized by nonnegative recovered generator weights, singleton normalization, and the residual central-mass constraint. This yields a complete Moebius-type synthesis within the witness framework. If the recovered increments are nonnegative and singleton normalization holds, then S(w) = sum(w) determines the admissible finite-scale range, and every admissible p0 gives an exact witness realization. In the canonical ray geometry, such a realization preserves the same complete signed tail family throughout 0 < p <= p0. Thus the primary object is the complete signed tail family lambda: it is realized at every admissible finite scale and can be carried along families of witness copulas with p0 decreasing to 0. Partial, noisy, or inconsistent specifications are treated through linear-feasibility and weighted-l1 recovery problems in the same parametrization. The representation separates the p0-free incidence/Moebius layer from finite-threshold realization and provides tools for realization, simulation, calibration, completion, repair, and scenario design.

Accurate time series forecasting in scientific domains such as climate modeling, physiological monitoring, and energy systems benefits from both competitive predictions and model transparency. This work proposes DecompKAN, a lightweight attention-free architecture that combines trend-residual decomposition, channel-wise patching, learned instance normalization, and B-spline Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) edge functions. Each KAN edge learns an explicit, inspectable 1D scalar function over learned patch-embedding coordinates that can be directly visualized. On standard benchmarks, DecompKAN achieves best or tied-best MSE on 15 of 32 dataset-horizon combinations among selected published baselines, and achieves best or tied-best MSE on 20 of 36 comparisons under a controlled same-recipe evaluation across 9 datasets including the physiological PPG-DaLiA benchmark. The architecture shows particular strength on datasets with smooth temporal dynamics (Solar -17%, ECL -10% vs. iTransformer, Weather) and physiological time series. Visualization of learned edge functions reveals qualitatively different latent nonlinearities across domains. Ablation analysis shows that the architectural pipeline (decomposition, patching, normalization) drives performance more than the choice of nonlinear layer, while the KAN formulation enables inspection of learned latent transformations.

This paper proposes an Extended State-Dependent Hawkes Process (ExsdHawkes) to model the intricate dynamics of Limit Order Books (LOBs). Our theoretical contribution lies in relaxing traditional constraints by allowing for state disappearances—a phenomenon frequently observed in high-frequency trading. We mathematically prove, using Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions, that the maximum likelihood estimation remains separable, justifying an efficient two-step procedure. In the empirical section, we apply our model to three months of high-frequency tick data of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306). We demonstrate that ExsdHawkes successfully replicates the characteristic upward slope of the volatility signature plot by capturing the “local super-criticality” triggered during disequilibrium states. Crucially, we clarify that the transition out of equilibrium is deterministically triggered by Aggressive Market Orders (AMS/AMB), while Marketable Limit Orders (MLO) function as a critical liquidity-depletion catalyst within the expanded spread. Comparative analysis reveals that models lacking physical constraints (e.g., standard SD-Hawkes) suffer from explosive spectral radii and fail to maintain simulation stability. Our findings suggest that physical consistency is not merely a mathematical nicety, but a prerequisite for accurately modeling macro-level volatility. By enforcing the physical geometry to `pause' the residual accumulation during inadmissible periods, ExsdHawkes maintains statistical integrity where unconstrained models succumb to structural bias and simulation instability.

Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time trajectory increments, state-space partitioning, or repeated simulation of candidate models, which become unreliable or computationally expensive for high-dimensional systems, coarse temporal sampling, or unevenly sampled data. We introduce a data-driven calibration method based on a novel relationship between the coefficients of a stochastic reduced model and the conditional score of the finite-time transition density, defined as the gradient of the logarithm of the transition density with respect to the initial state. The resulting identity expresses derivatives of lagged correlation functions as stationary expectations over observed lagged pairs involving this conditional score and the unknown model coefficients. This formulation allows the drift and diffusion structure to be constrained directly from finite-lag statistics, without differentiating trajectories, partitioning state space, or repeatedly integrating candidate reduced models during calibration, yielding a least-squares fitting problem over stationary lagged pairs. We validate the approach on three systems of increasing complexity: an analytically tractable Cox–Ingersoll–Ross diffusion, a two-dimensional nonequilibrium diffusion with affine multiplicative noise, and a periodic soft-spin stochastic Landau–Lifshitz chain. Across these tests, the inferred models preserve the invariant statistics while reproducing finite-lag dynamical correlations. The framework provides a scalable route for learning stochastic reduced-order models from data that reproduce prescribed statistical and dynamical properties.

We propose a new regularized optimal transport (OT) formulation, termed sliced-regularized optimal transport (SROT). Unlike entropic OT (EOT), which regularizes the transport plan toward an independent coupling, SROT regularizes it toward a smoothened sliced OT (SOT) plan. To the best of our knowledge, SROT is the first approach to leverage a version of SOT plan as a reference to improve classical OT. We provide a formal definition of SROT, derive its dual formulation, and provide a post-Bayesian interpretation of SROT. We then develop a Sinkhorn-style algorithm for efficient computation, retaining the same scalability advantages as EOT. By incorporating a scalable SOT plan as a prior, SROT yields more accurate approximations of the exact OT plan than EOT under the same level of regularization. Moreover, the resulting transport plan improves upon the reference SOT plan itself. We further introduce the corresponding OT divergence induced by SROT, named SROT divergence, and analyze its topological and computational properties. Finally, we validate our approach through experiments on synthetic datasets and color transfer tasks, demonstrating that SROT is better than both EOT and SOT in approximating exact OT. Additional experiments on gradient flows further highlight the advantages of SROT divergence.

When, in terms of the number of data points, the size of a dataset exceeds available computing resources, or when labeling is expensive, an attractive solution consists of selecting only some of the data points (subdata) for further consideration. A central question for selecting subdata of size $n$ from $N$ available data points is which $n$ points to select. While an answer to this question depends on the objective, one approach for a parametric model and a focus on parameter estimation is to select subdata that retains maximal information. Identifying such subdata is a classical NP-hard problem due to its inherent discreteness. Based on optimal approximate design theory, we develop a new methodology for information-based subdata selection, resulting in subdata that approaches the optimal solution. To achieve this, we develop a novel algorithm that applies to a general model, accommodates arbitrary choices of $N$ and $n$, and supports multiple optimality criteria, and we prove its convergence. Moreover, the new methodology facilitates an assessment of the efficiency of subdata selected by any method by obtaining tight lower and upper bounds for the efficiency. We show that the subdata obtained through the new methodology is highly efficient and outperforms all existing methods.

In this paper, we establish upper and lower bounds on the convergence rate of empirical measures of point processes under the Wasserstein distance. To this end, we first introduce a new metric on the space of finite counting measures. Unlike many existing metrics in the literature, our proposed metric incorporates the spatial locations of unmatched points. Drawing on both this new metric and existing metrics from the literature, we identify a set of common structural properties and develop a general framework for Wasserstein distances between point-process distributions based on metrics satisfying these properties. We then use this framework to investigate the convergence rates of empirical measures, providing quantitative guarantees for approximating the distribution of the underlying point process, and further establish corresponding concentration inequalities. These theoretical results may provide ingredients for constructing oracle goodness-of-fit tests for a specified point-process distribution. We also apply our theory to the approximation of Campbell measures and discuss how the resulting bounds can help assess Wasserstein-based learning of generative point-process models.

Cell–cell communication (CCC) is commonly inferred from ligand–receptor co-expression, an associational paradigm that cannot distinguish causal signaling from shared regulation or confounding. We propose MR-CCC, a Bayesian Mendelian randomization framework that uses cis-eQTLs as instruments for ligand and receptor expression and explicitly models receptor-modulated ligand effects through an interaction term, so the causal effect of a ligand can vary with receptor abundance. A spike–and–slab prior yields posterior inclusion probabilities quantifying evidence for causal signaling, and an efficient Gibbs sampler provides scalable inference. Benchmarked against naive regression, MVMR, and MR-BMA, MR-CCC controls false discoveries under confounding while retaining high power, and uniquely estimates both the ligand main and receptor-modulated interaction effects. Applied to the OneK1K NK cells $\to$ monocytes axis, MR-CCC identifies eight discoveries across GABA, interferon, interleukin, and prostaglandin signaling, including a stoichiometry-dependent dissociation of the two IL-18 receptor chains and co-discovery of both obligate IFN-$\gamma$ receptor subunits.

We propose PathBoost, a gradient tree boosting method for graph-level classification and regression that learns discriminative path-based features directly from the input graph structure. Building on a previous work, which was tailored to a specific chemistry application, PathBoost introduces three key extensions: (i) adaptation to binary classification through gradient boosting with a logistic loss, (ii) incorporation of multiple node and edge attributes into the path feature space via a prefix-based decomposition, and (iii) automatic anchor node selection based on categorical attribute diversity, eliminating the need for the user to specify the starting point of the considered path features. We compared PathBoost to graph neural networks and graph kernel approaches on several benchmark datasets, obtaining better results in half of them, and comparable results in the rest. PathBoost shows better performances on graphs with larger average node counts. Overall, the results demonstrate that path-based boosting methods can be competitive with more complex black-box approaches.

Multiobjective optimization remains challenging for many scientific and engineering problems due to the need to balance convergence, diversity, and computational efficiency across high-dimensional objective landscapes. This work presents the Multiobjective Animorphic Ensemble Optimization (MAEO) framework, a parallelizable ensemble strategy that unifies state-of-the-art evolutionary algorithms within an island-based architecture, overcoming the limitations of relying on a single optimizer, as implied by the No Free Lunch theorem. MAEO uses a parameter-free hypervolume indicator for island performance assessment and a strict Pareto-rank-based individual scoring formulation that incorporates crowding distance and nadir-point proximity to ensure consistent selection pressure within each front. The framework is initiated using four algorithms (NSGA-III, CTAEA, AGEMOEA2, SPEA2) and evaluated through extensive benchmarking on 12 DTLZ/ZDT functions under 36 dimensionality settings using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests with both hypervolume and inverse generational distance metrics. Results show that MAEO achieves balanced convergence-diversity performance, outperforming or matching some of the leading multiobjective optimization algorithms across different benchmark problems. To demonstrate practical applicability, MAEO is applied to the equilibrium-cycle optimization of a small modular nuclear reactor. Eight discrete design variables (and three objectives (levelized cost of electricity, peak soluble boron concentration, fuel cycle length) are optimized under two safety constraints. The algorithm carried out roughly 40000 evaluations using computer simulations. MAEO identifies core designs that lower both the levelized cost of electricity and the peak boron concentration, while preserving fuel cycle length and meeting all safety constraints.

Learning low-dimensional representations from multi-view relational data is challenging when underlying geometries differ across views. We propose Bary-GWMDS, a Gromov-Wasserstein-based method that operates directly on distance matrices to learn a consensus embedding preserving shared relational structure. By leveraging intrinsic distances, the approach naturally handles nonlinear distortions across views. We also introduce Mean-GWMDS-C, a clustering-oriented formulation that averages distance matrices and learns reduced-support representations via a consensus Gromov-Wasserstein transport. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed framework yields stable and geometrically meaningful embeddings.

Synthetic tabular data are often evaluated by distributional similarity, privacy distance, or train-on-synthetic-test-on-real predictive performance, but these criteria do not ensure validity for causal inference. We show that fully generative tabular synthesizers, including GAN- and LLM-based models, can preserve predictive utility while distorting average treatment effect (ATE) estimates. The failure is structural: ATE preservation requires both a realistic covariate law and an accurate treatment-effect contrast, whereas prediction loss penalizes treatment-effect error only through an overlap-weighted term. Thus, under imbalance or limited overlap, a generator may reproduce dominant observed outcomes while underlearning intervention-relevant contrasts. We formalize this mismatch through sensitivity and loss-decomposition results. Motivated by this causal analysis and intuition, we propose a hybrid synthetic-data framework for causal inference that generates covariates while modeling treatment and outcome mechanisms separately. We evaluate the framework in three settings: ATE preservation under fully generative versus hybrid synthesis, augmentation for practical positivity problems, and diagnostic simulation engines for comparing OR, IPW, AIPW, and TMLE before real-data analysis. We also stress-test the hybrid construction across settings that vary overlap, covariate dimension, seed sample size, and treatment-effect complexity, including a logistic outcome-model misspecification check. Across controlled simulation experiments, hybrid synthesis improves causal fidelity relative to fully generative baselines; the ACTG application shows improved predictive fidelity and potential for finite-sample estimator benchmarking. LLM-based hybrid synthesis is often more faithful than CTGAN in settings where causal fidelity can be assessed.

Background: Missing data poses an acute threat to sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) analyses because of the sequential treatment structure and response-dependent re-randomization. Objectives: This study aimed to (1) review the current statistical methods for handling missing data in SMARTs, and (2) characterize how missing data is reported and handled in published SMARTs. Methods: We conducted a narrative review of statistical methods developed for missing data in SMARTs. Additionally, we conducted a pre-specified secondary extraction of a previously published scoping review of SMARTs focused on missing data. Extraction captured attrition rates, methods for handling missingness, and planned versus performed missing data analyses. Results: Seven methodological papers were identified; nearly all assume missing at random (MAR), and only one addresses the full set of SMART-specific missingness types. Across 30 published SMARTs, median overall attrition was 18.1% (range 0.6%-56.5%). Methods used to address missing data were described in 80% of the manuscripts; mixed-model methods were most common (30%). Among 14 studies with paired protocols, sensitivity analyses were pre-specified in 2 (14%). Conclusions: SMART-specific methodology for missing data is limited, and a substantial gap exists between available methodology and current SMART practice.

Foundation models of brain activity promise a new frontier for in silico neuroscience by emulating neural responses to complex stimuli across tasks and modalities. A natural next step is to ask whether these models can also be used in reverse. Can we recover a stimulus or its properties from synthetic brain activity? We study this question in a proof-of-concept setting using TRIBEv2. We pair the brain emulator with large language models (LLMs) that generate news headlines from linguistic parameters such as valence, arousal, and dominance. We then use simulation-based inference to learn a probabilistic mapping from brain maps to latent stimulus parameters. Our results show that these parameters can be recovered from predicted brain maps, demonstrating that the emulator's synthetic neural encodings preserve information about the controlled stimulus dimensions. They also show that LLMs can serve as controllable stimulus generators for simulated experiments. Together, these findings provide a step toward decoding and inverse design with foundation brain models.

Change-plane regression represents treatment effect heterogeneity through an interpretable rule that assigns patients to two groups according to whether a linear score of baseline covariates crosses a threshold. Although easy to communicate, likelihood-based inference for the hard threshold is nonregular, invalidating standard large-sample approximations. We develop a Bayesian framework that replaces the sharp indicator with a smooth probit gate at a declared smoothing scale and treats the smoothed subgroup rule as the reported estimand. At a fixed smoothing scale, the posterior satisfies a misspecified Bernstein–von Mises theorem centered at the smoothed rule. Under a vanishing smoothing schedule, the posterior learns the boundary faster than the parametric rate, while within an explicit schedule window the regression block and treatment-effect contrast satisfy a Bernstein–von Mises theorem centered at the hard-threshold values with known-subgroup oracle efficiency. Thus, effect inference pays no first-order price for regularization. A decision-theoretic reporting protocol with consistency guarantees separates evidence of heterogeneity from reporting a boundary. Computation uses latent-variable augmentation, a great-circle elliptical slice sampler, and a normalized horseshoe prior. Simulations and an application to the PREMIER trial illustrate the method.

A central challenge of meta-analysis is that the populations underlying existing studies often differ from the target population in unknown ways. We study the problem of predicting function-valued quantities, such as regression and conditional average treatment effect functions, for a new target population using only study-level covariates and study-specific function estimates. We propose MetaHunt, a new meta-analysis methodology based on a shared low-rank structure, in which the true function from each study lies within the convex hull of a small set of latent basis functions. To recover these basis functions, we extend a vertex-hunting procedure called the Successive Projection Algorithm to the functional setting, incorporating a denoised basis-hunting step. We establish consistency of the recovered basis functions under mild regularity conditions. We then model the relationship between study-level covariates and the corresponding mixing weights using flexible semi-parametric or non-parametric methods. MetaHunt is privacy-preserving and enables meta-analytic prediction based on study-level information alone, even when individual-level data are unavailable to analysts. In addition, for each study, functions of interest can be estimated using possibly different machine learning algorithms. For uncertainty quantification, we construct prediction intervals via conformal prediction. We show that, under exchangeability and mild estimation-error conditions, these intervals achieve asymptotically valid marginal coverage. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MetaHunt through both simulation studies and empirical applications. An open-source software package is available for implementing MetaHunt.

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) ratings are widely used in studies of behavioral and psychological phenomena to capture real-time data in subjects' real-world environments. Because the data are collected repeatedly over the study period, they provide rich longitudinal rating profiles for each individual. However, the number of observations per subject is often large, while both sample size and sampling intensity can vary substantially across individuals, which complicates the analysis. In some settings, simplified summaries of individual profiles, such as averages computed across the study period, are used for downstream analyses, including regression-style modeling. Although such summaries can be convenient, they may fail to fully capture dynamic temporal patterns present in the complete longitudinal profiles. To address this, we borrow measures from sequence analysis that capture individual-level patterns over time and then applied principal component analysis (PCA) followed by $K$-means clustering to identify unobserved latent groups of individuals with similar profiles. We test our approach using simulated data from a categorical functional regression model and compare its performance with two commonly used methods for detecting unobserved group structures: latent class analysis (LCA), and latent transition analysis (LTA). Using EMA stress observations from a large sample of U.S. adults (Newman et al., 2024, 2025), we identify distinct latent stress profile groups and show that they improve characterization of the impact on cognitive performance.

Kac's walk on the rotation group, introduced by Hastings in 1970, is an important high-dimensional Markov chain with applications in statistical physics, statistics, cryptography, and computational science. Despite its simple transition rules, determining its total-variation mixing time has remained a challenging problem for decades. A key obstacle is that the walk is not conjugation-invariant, placing it beyond the reach of classical Fourier-analytic techniques that apply to many related random walks on compact groups. We prove that Kac's walk mixes in total variation in \(O(n^2 \log n)\) steps, matching the conjectured mixing time up to constants. The proof is based on a refined two-stage coupling. Building on earlier work, the first stage contracts two copies of the chain to a small neighborhood via a Wasserstein coupling. Our main contribution is a new framework for analyzing the second-stage coupling. It can be viewed as a discrete analogue of Malliavin calculus for Markov chains. We represent the law of the chain as the pushforward of high-dimensional noise and prove quantitative non-degeneracy of the associated linearization using matrix martingale methods. This yields an approximately Gaussian distribution in the Lie algebra with well-conditioned covariance, allowing small group translations to be absorbed at negligible cost in total variation. Our approach provides a general framework for studying mixing in high-dimensional Markov chains in continuous state spaces with singular transition kernels.

Classical multivariate statistical methods such as covariance estimation and principal component analysis are well understood mathematically, yet their application at extreme data scales remains challenging. When the number of observations reaches billions, performance is limited by data movement, input-output bottlenecks, and numerical stability rather than arithmetic complexity. This work presents a case study of scaling classical multivariate statistics on a single multi-GPU node. Using C++ and CUDA, a GPU-accelerated workflow was developed to compute sufficient statistics in a single pass over a 10-billion-row dataset. Column sums and cross-product matrices are used to enable downstream computation of means, covariance, correlation, and principal component analysis without revisiting the raw data. The results highlight the importance of data representation, validation using known invariants, and careful numerical treatment when applying established statistical methods at large scale.

Causal representation learning aims to recover the latent causal variables and their causal relations, typically represented by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), from low-level observations such as image pixels. A prevailing line of research exploits multiple environments, which assume how data distributions change, including single-node interventions, coupled interventions, or hard interventions, or parametric constraints on the mixing function or the latent causal model, such as linearity. Despite the novelty and elegance of the results, they are often violated in real problems. Accordingly, we formalize a set of desiderata for causal representation learning that applies to a broader class of environments, referred to as general environments. Interestingly, we show that one can fully recover the latent DAG and identify the latent variables up to minor indeterminacies under a nonparametric mixing function and nonlinear latent causal models, such as additive (Gaussian) noise models or heteroscedastic noise models, by properly leveraging sufficient change conditions on the causal mechanisms up to third-order derivatives. These represent, to our knowledge, the first results to fully recover the latent DAG from general environments under nonparametric mixing. Notably, our results match or improve upon many existing works, but require less restrictive assumptions about changing environments.

Young interference is usually read as the gradual statistical accumulation of random detection events. Here we show that a time-reversed Young (TRY) geometry has a different statistical character: the fringe is not a marginal distribution of detector positions, but a conditional response indexed by a programmed source coordinate. With a fixed detector and a scanned source basis, the observable is an operational hybrid correlator between detector signal and source label. The resulting interference is deterministic at the response-function level, while noise enters only through estimation precision. We formulate this distinction using Fisher information, estimator variance, and noise scaling, clarifying why TRY naturally supports calibration, lock-in readout, null-fringe sensing, and source-plane superresolution.

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will generate a massive collection of time series (light curves) of the measured flux of transient and variable astronomical objects. With each new flux observation, light curve classifiers need to generate updated probability distributions over candidate classes, which will then be shared with the global community for the purpose of identifying interesting targets for follow-up observations as well as less time-sensitive analysis applications. Using the synthetic light curves and classification results of participating classifiers from the Extended LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC), we investigate a novel framework to enhance existing light curve classifications by incorporating their classification histories and the temporal evolution of these histories. To demonstrate the potential of this approach, we introduce a model that combines a recurrent neural network and an additive attention module, which shows improved classification accuracy and more balanced precision-recall performance compared to existing classifiers from the challenge. Furthermore, at this stage, most, if not all, of the existing classifiers are evaluated by their final classification results on complete light curves; we propose new metrics that evaluate the stability, accuracy, and early classification performance of a classifier's predictions when using limited data by considering the Wasserstein distance between the temporally evolving classification probability distributions. Our metrics offer a more comprehensive perspective for model assessment by supplementing classical methods such as the confusion matrix and precision-recall.

A central problem in unsupervised domain adaptation is determining what to transfer from labeled source domains to an unlabeled target domain. To handle high-dimensional observations (e.g., images), a line of approaches use deep learning to learn latent representations of the observations, which facilitate knowledge transfer in the latent space. However, existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions to establish identifiability of the joint distribution in the target domain, such as independent latent variables or invariant label distributions, limiting their real-world applicability. In this work, we propose a general domain adaptation framework that learns compact latent representations to capture distribution shifts relative to the prediction task and address the fundamental question of what representations should be learned and transferred. Notably, we first demonstrate that learning representations based on all the predictive information, i.e., the label's Markov blanket in terms of the learned representations, is often underspecified in general settings. Instead, we show that, interestingly, general domain adaptation can be achieved by partitioning the representations of Markov blanket into those of the label's parents, children, and spouses. Moreover, its identifiability guarantee can be established. Building on these theoretical insights, we develop a practical, nonparametric approach for domain adaptation in a general setting, which can handle different types of distribution shifts.

AI/ML methods are increasingly used in economics to generate binary variables (or labels) via classification algorithms. When these generated variables are included as covariates in regressions, even small misclassification errors can induce large biases in OLS estimators and invalidate standard inference. We study whether the bootstrap can correct this bias and deliver valid inference. We first show that a seemingly natural fixed-label bootstrap, which generates data using estimated labels but relies on a corrupted version in estimation, is generally invalid unless a strong independence condition between the latent true labels and other covariates holds. We then propose a coupled-label bootstrap that jointly resamples the true and imputed labels, and show it is valid without this condition. Two finite-sample adjustments further improve coverage: a variance correction for uncertainty in estimated misclassification rates and a Hessian rotation for near-singular designs. We illustrate the methods in simulations and apply them to investigate the relationship between wages and remote work status.

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of disease progression in relation to transcriptomic profiles provides key insights into complex conditions such as Alzheimer's disease. To enable such investigations, STARmap PLUS technology offers joint profiling of high-resolution spatial transcriptomics and protein detection within the same tissue section. Detailed visual and clustering-based analyses of STARmap PLUS data by Zeng et al. (2023) provided important insights into molecular and cellular changes associated with Alzheimer's disease pathology. Motivated by this work, we develop a kernel-weighted sparse reduced-rank regression framework that estimates associations between plaque size and neighboring cell-level transcriptomic profiles while enabling gene selection and borrowing strength across genes, cell types, and disease stages. The proposed approach is implemented in a fully automated manner with data-driven specification of key model components. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the robustness of the proposed method and its superiority across a range of simulation scenarios. Applied to Alzheimer's disease data, the proposed framework uncovers biologically meaningful associations, highlighting its potential for advancing the understanding of disease mechanisms.

Many biological processes, including plant leafout and flowering, occur once cumulative temperatures reach a threshold, a relationship known as the thermal-sum model. In this way, temperature is thought to coordinate the timing of biological events. An important implication is that higher temperatures cause thresholds to be reached sooner so that the timing of spring events, for example, should advance earlier in the calendar year as climates warm. But growing evidence has found that, as climates have warmed, the rate of advancement has slowed (a trend known as declining sensitivity), while the variance in the timing of spring events has increased in many cases (a trend we call declining synchrony). These trends raise questions about the resilience of temperature-based coordination to anthropogenic climate change. To answer these questions, researchers have modified the thermal-sum model by introducing additional factors and mechanisms, such as chilling and photoperiod. We show such complexity is not necessary to explain current trends of sensitivity and synchrony. Using experimental and real-world data, we find these trends are exactly as predicted by the thermal-sum model. In particular, the model predicts that as temperatures continue to increase and springtime events shift from the equinox toward the winter solstice, those events will become less synchronized and more variable, a phenomenon we refer to as a scattered spring. By 2100, our results predict much of the American South will experience a scattered spring under a high-warming scenario, with the average time between spring flowering events increasing by several weeks in many locations.

A widely cited result by Dong et al. (2021) showed that Transformers built from self-attention alone, without skip connections or feed-forward layers, suffer from rapid rank collapse: all token representations converge to a single direction. The proposed remedy was the MLP. We show that this picture, while correct in the regime studied by Dong, is incomplete in ways that matter for architectural understanding. Three results are established. First, layer normalisation is precisely affine-rank-neutral: it preserves the affine rank of the token representation set exactly. The widespread claim that LN "plays no role" is imprecise; the correct statement is sharper. Second, residual connections generically obstruct rank collapse in real Transformers such as BERT-base, in a measure-theoretic sense, without contribution from the MLP. The MLP's irreplaceable function is different: generating feature directions outside the linear span of the original token embeddings, which no stack of attention layers can produce. Third, a phenomenon distinct from rank collapse is identified: head-channel non-identifiability. After multi-head attention sums per-head outputs through the output projection, individual contributions cannot be canonically attributed to a specific head; n(H-1)d_k degrees of freedom per layer remain ambiguous when recovering a single head from the mixed signal. The MLP cannot remedy this because it acts on the post-summation signal. A constructive partial remedy is proposed: a position-gated output projection (PG-OP) at parameter overhead below 1.6% of the standard output projection. The four collapse phenomena identified in the literature – rank collapse in depth, in width, head-channel non-identifiability, and entropy collapse – are unified under a symmetry-breaking framework, each corresponding to a distinct symmetry of the Transformer's forward pass.