Papers

A companion paper develops a generalised framework in which a probability law is represented by a tempered distribution $T\in\mathcal{S}'$ - on the same footing as a density or characteristic function - and information is extracted by pairing $T$ with a positive Schwartz kernel $\varphi$ that acts as a measurement instrument rather than as part of the law; the resulting weak moments of all orders exist unconditionally. The present paper turns this into a methodology for statistical inference: estimation via weak moment matching, weak characteristic functions, weak cumulants, and regularised density reconstruction by Tikhonov inversion. Parametric inference proceeds directly from weak expectations, without reconstructing the density. The central result is that weak moment estimators are automatically locally robust in the sense of Hampel: their score is bounded and redescending, their influence function has a closed form, and their gross error sensitivity is finite in every identifiable parametric model - all inherited from the kernel's decay, with no ad hoc truncation. The kernel plays the role of Huber's tuning constant, but as a structural component of the model rather than a post-hoc modification. The framework is worked out for the Cauchy location model (where no classical moment estimator exists), a Student $t_3$ location-scale model, a bivariate Cauchy location model, a bivariate $t_3$ location-scale model, and a location of a moving atom (a non-dominated model). Monte Carlo comparisons show weak moment estimators matching or outperforming classical robust benchmarks under contamination; in the bivariate $t_3$ case the MLE scale estimate breaks down while the weak moment estimator converges at the parametric rate. The reconstruction route is inherently non-parametric and opens a path to weak density estimation.

Semi-supervised classification, where unlabeled data are massive but labeled data are limited, often arises in machine learning applications. We address this challenge under high-dimensional data by leveraging the manifold and cluster assumptions. Based on the Fermat distance, a density-sensitive metric that naturally encodes the cluster assumption, we propose the weighted $k$-nearest neighbors (NN) classifier and multidimensional scaling (MDS)-induced classifiers. The use of MDS with a large target dimension allows the effective application of linear classifiers to complex manifold data. Theoretically, we derive a sharp lower bound for the expected excess risk within clusters and prove that the weighted $k$-NN classifier utilizing the true Fermat distance is minimax optimal. Furthermore, we explicitly quantify the utility of unlabeled data by showing that the error arising from estimating the Fermat distance decays exponentially with the pooled sample size. Such a rate is much faster than the related rates in the literature. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate competitive or superior performance of our approaches compared to state-of-the-art graph-based semi-supervised classifiers.

Diffusion models are central to modern generative modeling, and understanding how they balance memorization and generalization is critical for reliable deployment. Recent work has shown that memorization in diffusion models is shaped by training dynamics, with generalization and memorization emerging at different stages of training. However, deployed diffusion models are often further distilled, introducing an additional training phase whose impact on memorization is not well understood. In this work, we analyze how distillation reshapes memorization behavior in diffusion models, taking consistency distillation as a representative framework. Empirically, we show that when applied to a teacher model that has memorized data, consistency distillation significantly reduces transferred memorization in the student while preserving, and sometimes improving, sample quality. To explain this behavior, we provide a theoretical analysis using a random feature neural network model [Bonnaire et al., 2025], showing that consistency distillation suppresses unstable feature directions associated with memorization while preserving stable, generalizable modes. Our findings suggest that distillation can serve not only as an acceleration tool, but also as a mechanism for improving the memorization-generalization trade-off.

Evaluating the causal health effects of multivariate, continuous exposures, such as air pollution mixtures, is a critical public health challenge. A primary obstacle is the frequent violation of the positivity assumption, which renders the effects of standard deterministic interventions unidentified or heavily reliant on unreliable model extrapolation. In this paper, we develop a novel causal inference framework to address this challenge. We extend exponential tilting to multivariate exposures and address the critical question of how to compare different intervention directions fairly. This establishes a systematic framework for defining and evaluating various policy-relevant causal estimands, allowing researchers to address diverse scientific questions. We develop numerous methodological advancements, including efficient one-step estimation strategies, a Riemannian BFGS algorithm to solve a constrained manifold optimization problem, semiparametric efficiency bounds for causal estimands, minimax rates for estimators, and establishing asymptotic normality. We demonstrate our framework's utility by applying it to a nationwide environmental health dataset to identify the optimal strategy for reducing adverse health outcomes associated with a PM$_{2.5}$ chemical mixture.

We present a simple method to obtain optimal posterior distributions and improve the quality of Bayesian inference with reduced human and computational effort. Bayes' Theorem is reformulated in the language of statistical mechanics, wherein an improved posterior – referred to as a tempered posterior – is defined analogously to a canonical probability distribution at temperature $\tau$. Wang-Landau sampling is used to obtain the density of states of the posterior probability, and signals analogous to those of phase transitions are extracted from a single simulation. In addition, the transition temperature is easily identified, providing the tempered posterior with optimal predictive performance. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method on a real-world problem in materials science (equation of state modeling) with messy data, a high-dimensional and correlated input parameter space, and "frustration" among model outputs.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) combines document retrieval with large language models to produce responses grounded in external evidence. While several R packages support core components of RAG workflows, integrated evaluation of RAG systems in R remains limited and is often conducted through Python-based tools, most notably the RAG assessment (RAGAS) framework. To address this gap, we introduce ragR, an R package that unifies document ingestion, embedding and vector storage, similarity-based retrieval, grounded generation, structured question-answer logging, and RAGAS-style evaluation within a single R-native workflow. The current implementation provides LLM-based scoring for four core RAGAS metrics: context precision, context recall, faithfulness, and answer relevance. Validation experiments under controlled settings show that ragR captures similar metric behavior to the reference Python RAGAS workflow across multiple use cases. By integrating RAG construction and evaluation within a reproducible workflow in R, ragR provides a practical framework for research, teaching, and moderate-scale experimentation on RAG systems entirely within the R ecosystem.

The health condition of components in civil infrastructures can be described by various discrete states according to their performance degradation. Inferring these states from measurable responses is typically an ill-posed inverse problem. Although Bayesian methods are well-suited to tackle such problems, computing the posterior probability density function (PDF) presents challenges. The likelihood function cannot be analytically formulated due to the unclear relationship between discrete states and structural responses, and the high-dimensional state parameters resulting from numerous components severely complicates the computation of the marginal likelihood function. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm for discrete variables based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs). The Markov networks are employed as modeling tools, with model parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. It has been proved that inferring this PGM produces the same probabilistic estimation as the posterior PDF derived from Bayesian inference, which effectively solves the above challenges. The inference is accomplished by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and a graph property-based GNN training strategy is developed to enable accurate inference across varying graph scales, thereby significantly reducing the computational overhead in high-dimensional problems. Both synthetic and experimental data are used to validate the proposed framework

Polyak-Ruppert averaging yields an asymptotically normal estimator with sandwich covariance $H^{-1}SH^{-1}$, the foundation of online inference. When the gradient step is preconditioned by a data-driven matrix $P_t$, we ask how fast $P_t$ must stabilize for the central limit theorem (CLT) to remain valid. We resolve this via an exact preconditioner-isolating decomposition of the averaged error that confines $P_t$ to a dynamic remainder $R_n$, leaving the martingale and Taylor terms preconditioner-free. Let $M_t = (P_t H)^{-1}$ denote the effective inverse drift matrix, with $\|M_t - M_{t-1}\|_{\mathrm{op}} \lesssim t^{-\beta}$ and step-size exponent $\alpha \in (1/2, 1)$. We identify a stabilization-rate threshold $\beta > (\alpha+1)/2$ and prove that, within the class of polynomial rate hypotheses used in our upper bound, it cannot be weakened: the dynamic remainder $\sqrt{n}\,R_n$ vanishes in $L^2$ whenever $\beta > (\alpha+1)/2$, and we exhibit sequences satisfying those hypotheses for which it does not vanish when $\beta \le (\alpha+1)/2$. A single stabilization argument certifies three SA variants - SA-AdaGrad, SA-RMSProp, and SA-ONS - with gain $\rho_t = c/t$, each delivering one-step $L^2(\mathrm{op})$ stabilization of order $t^{-1}$, yielding the CLT $\sqrt{n}(\bar{x}_n - x^*) \to N(0, H^{-1}SH^{-1})$; under bounded inputs the pathwise rate $\beta = 1$ further preserves the $n^{-1/6}$ Wasserstein rate at $\alpha^* = 2/3$. Under standard regularity conditions, Wald-type online inference remains valid for dynamically preconditioned averaged SGD whose stabilization rate exceeds the threshold.

Previous research has investigated the potential of refugee matching for boosting refugee outcomes, first considered by Bansak et al. (2018). This paper demonstrates the stability of counterfactual impact evaluation results in the context of refugee matching in the United States using a range of off-policy evaluation methods. In order to estimate counterfactual impact and test the robustness of our results, we employ several evaluation methods, including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple variants of augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW). We also consider various modifications, including alternative modeling architectures and different assignment procedures. The impact estimates remain consistent in magnitude in all scenarios as well as statistically significant in most cases. Furthermore, the estimates are also consistent with the results originally presented in Bansak et al. (2018).

We present an audio-to-analysis pipeline that produces composer-level information-theoretic profiles : reflecting compositional vocabulary as it emerges from aggregated performances : from raw recordings, built on a transcription layer whose accuracy we certify on a standard benchmark (F1 = 0.9791 on the MAESTRO v3.0.0 test set). Applied to 1,238 pieces and 15 MAESTRO composers with at least ten attributed pieces, spanning the Baroque through the early twentieth century, the pipeline derives empirical distributions over harmonic scale degrees and analyzes them through Shannon entropy, asymmetric Kullback-Leibler divergence, and Zipfian rank-frequency modeling. The resulting profiles (i) order composers along an interpretable axis of harmonic predictability, with a narrow entropy range (3.33-3.86 bits) that reveals the marginal-level similarity of tonal vocabularies; (ii) recover known stylistic lineages (Haydn-Beethoven, Liszt-Rachmaninoff, Schubert-Schumann) through the smallest KL divergences in the corpus, with Mendelssohn emerging as a stable outlier within this corpus; and (iii) separate contemporary neoclassical artists (Richter, Frahm, Glass, Arnalds, Jóhannsson) from historical composers on the quality of Zipfian fit to the transition distribution, with mean $R^2 = 0.78$ for neoclassical versus 0.46 for historical (N $\geq$ 10 pieces each). This gap is larger than the spread within either group and is consistent with a minimalist compositional tendency: a compact transition vocabulary used with sharper frequency-rank regularity than historical composers. All estimates are reported with Laplace-smoothed bootstrap 95% confidence intervals.

In this paper, a Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) model is studied when both low and high frequency variables are contaminated with measurement error. It is shown that the profile likelihood estimator becomes inconsistent in the presence of measurement error. Using the corrected score approach along with profile likelihood approach, a consistent estimator for parameters of MIDAS Measurement Error model is proposed. Small and large sample properties of the estimator are examined by performing a monte carlo simulation study and considering the effect of sample size, number of lags and profiling parameter.

Subnational monitoring of public health and development indicators often relies on household surveys where data are sparse at the desired spatial resolution. Small area estimation (SAE) methods address this challenge by borrowing strength across areas and incorporating auxiliary information. However, comparing these estimators remains difficult in the absence of ground truth. We propose a design-based cross-validation framework for evaluating small area estimators that accommodates complex survey designs. Our approach enables model-agnostic comparisons between area-level and unit-level SAE models. We derive a decomposition of the conditional mean squared error that yields a consistent cross-validation score, show that finite-sample comparisons carry an unidentifiable bias that can be bounded, and use this bound as a principled threshold for ranking models. We further show that leave-one-area-out cross-validation, a popular alternative, targets extrapolation rather than smoothing error and can reverse the correct ranking. We evaluate the framework through extensive design-based simulations. We apply the framework to compare subnational female literacy estimators in Zambia using the 2024 Demographic and Health Survey. The framework applies broadly across prevalence mapping and other SAE problems and is applicable to any small area estimator irrespective of the underlying model class.

Multiple diagnostic tests are frequently used to determine the presence of a disease condition in patients. In this paper, we use bivariate copulas to examine the properties of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves formed when two correlated diagnostic tests are used together to rule-out ("believe the negative") and rule-in ("believe the positive") patients for disease. We use this theory to analyze three mammography data sets where AI devices are applied to reduce radiologists' workload or improve diagnostic performance. Our analysis shows with generality that increasing the radiologist-AI correlation for diseased cases enhances the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of a radiologist-AI rule-out curve, whereas decreasing correlation for non-diseased cases has a similar effect. The opposite trends hold for rule-in scenarios. Applications to clinical mammography data show that projected empirical radiologist performance under a rule-out or rule-in scenario is consistent with the theory.

Sequential latent-variable models with subject-specific random effects provide a flexible framework for modeling temporally structured data with both local latent dynamics and stable between-subject heterogeneity. In such models, conditional inference for the local latent process is often tractable, but integrating over subject-specific random effects can be computationally demanding. We propose an anchored variational inference framework for efficient approximate inference in this setting. The central idea is to replace the full conditional posterior of the local latent process with its evaluation at a representative value of the subject-specific latent effect, called the anchor point, thereby preserving tractable local inference while substantially reducing computational cost. This approximation is especially appealing in sequential settings, where the posterior distribution of the random effect becomes increasingly concentrated as the sequence length grows. Under suitable conditions, we show that the posterior mean is a nearly optimal anchor point and that the resulting anchored variational EM (AVEM) algorithm approximately preserves the local monotonicity behavior of standard variational inference. We instantiate the framework in two representative classes of sequential latent-variable models, namely mixed hidden Markov models and mixed-effects state-space models, derive the corresponding AVEM algorithms, and use simulation studies to indicate that the resulting methods achieve accurate estimation with substantial computational gains. We also discuss a partially anchored variant of the framework, in which only the components of the subject-specific latent effect whose posteriors are well concentrated are anchored.

Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in the climate system over recent decades, this study aims to quantify the relative contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the increasing likelihood of climate extremes, with a particular emphasis on high-temperature extremes. Our analysis focuses on annual temperature maxima from the IPSL-CM6A model in the CMIP6 experiment. We propose a novel causal inference framework that focuses on differences in return levels derived from annual temperature maxima between the factual and counterfactual worlds. While jointly modeling the annual maxima from the two worlds using a bivariate generalized extreme value distribution, we model the spatially-varying coefficients using a latent Gaussian framework. Specifically, given that the data are available over a $1^\circ \times 1^\circ$ grid, we employ the multivariate intrinsic conditional autoregressive model for the latent layer in the proposed hierarchical model, ensuring proper posterior distributions. We implement a recently developed highly-efficient approximate Bayesian inference technique, `Max-and-smooth', that uses a Laplace approximation of the likelihood and then performs Gibbs sampling based on the approximate posterior. The results include posterior estimates of the causal effect of anthropogenic forcing on high-temperature extremes, along with the trends in this effect, over the factual world. Furthermore, we estimate credible regions for a significant causal effect to facilitate hotspot detection across the mainland United States.

Reliable decision-making with streaming data requires principled uncertainty quantification of online methods. While first-order methods enable efficient iterate updates, their inference procedures still require updating proper (covariance) matrices, incurring $O(d^2)$ time and memory complexity, and are sensitive to ill-conditioning and noise heterogeneity of the problem. This costly inference task offers an opportunity for more robust second-order methods, which are, however, bottlenecked by solving Newton systems with $O(d^3)$ complexity. In this paper, we address this gap by studying an online Newton method with Hessian averaging, where the Newton direction at each step is approximately computed using a sketch-and-project solver with Nesterov's acceleration, matching $O(d^2)$ complexity of first-order methods. For the proposed method, we quantify its uncertainty arising from both random data and randomized computation. Under standard smoothness and moment conditions, we establish global almost-sure convergence, prove asymptotic normality of the last iterate with a limiting covariance characterized by a Lyapunov equation, and develop a fully online covariance estimator with non-asymptotic convergence guarantees. We also connect the resulting uncertainty quantification to that of exact and sketched Newton methods without Nesterov's acceleration. Extensive experiments on regression models demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method for online inference.

Rerandomization systematically reduces chance imbalance and can improve the efficiency of the average treatment effect estimator in randomized experiments. While the asymptotic properties of finite-dimensional M-estimators under rerandomization have been established, existing theory does not directly address survival outcomes under censoring, where the target estimand involves infinite-dimensional functional parameters. This article establishes the uniform weak convergence of treatment-specific survival function estimators under rerandomization and stratified rerandomization. We prove that the Kaplan-Meier and inverse probability of censoring weighted Kaplan-Meier estimators converge to tight limiting processes with reduced pointwise asymptotic variances. Furthermore, we prove that the pointwise asymptotic variance of the debiased machine learning survival function estimator remains invariant under rerandomization, a consequence of the Neyman orthogonality. Simulations and a real data example are used to illustrate the theoretical results. Our results characterize the geometric interplay between restricted randomization designs and analysis-stage covariate adjustment for functional target estimands in survival analysis.

Over decades, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been widely studied, with a typical application being the quantification of posterior uncertainties in Bayesian system identification of structural dynamic models. To address the issue of excessively low sampling efficiency in generic MCMC methods when applied to specific problems, researchers developed several MCMC algorithms that integrate trainable neural networks to replace and enhance their critical components. Later, meta-learning MCMC methods emerged to reduce training time. However, they require considerable similarity between test and training tasks, while their sampling efficiency is constrained by trade-off-simplified network designs. This paper proposes the Adaptive Principal-Component (PC) Meta-learning Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (APM-SGHMC) algorithm. It adaptively rotates coordinate axes in the parameter space to align with the PC directions of the current posterior samples, ensuring rotation-invariance of sampling performance with respect to the posterior distribution. By incorporating translation-invariance, scale-invariance, and rotation-invariance in a unified framework, APM-SGHMC enables universal samplers to acquire generalizable knowledge across diverse Bayesian system identification tasks using minimalistic tasks while eliminating the constraints imposed by network design trade-offs on sampling efficiency. Practical feasibility issues are also addressed. Two Bayesian system identification case studies demonstrate its effectiveness and universality: our method overcomes the case-by-case limitations of traditional data-driven approaches, achieving zero-shot generalization across structurally distinct models without retraining and maintaining consistent superior performance across all scenarios.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have become increasingly difficult to deploy in resource-constrained environments due to their large memory and computational requirements. Although low-rank compression methods can reduce this burden, most existing approaches compress spatial and channel redundancy independently and therefore do not fully exploit the localised structure within convolutional feature maps. This paper proposes a hierarchical spatio-channel low-rank compression framework for CNNs that exploits redundancy across spatial regions and channel activations. Unlike conventional methods, which apply a uniform decomposition across an entire layer, the proposed approach first partitions feature maps into spatial regions, then groups channels according to their co-activation patterns within each region, and finally applies rank-adaptive SVD to each resulting spatio-channel cluster. The method is evaluated on an AlexNet-based brain tumour MRI classification model and compared with Global SVD and Tucker decomposition under \(3\times\) and \(6\times\) compression budgets. Our method outperforms both baselines, reducing FLOPs from \(8.21\,\mathrm{G}\) to \(1.55\,\mathrm{G}\) (\(81.1\%\) reduction), achieving a \(1.38\times\) inference speed-up, and increasing classification accuracy from \(87.76\%\) to \(89.80\%\). The method also improves the macro \(F_1\)-score and performance on challenging classes such as meningioma. A hyper-parameter trade-off analysis demonstrates that the framework provides Pareto-optimal configurations, enabling control over the balance between compression and predictive performance. Moderate clustering with adaptive rank selection yields strong results. Bootstrap standard errors are reported for all classification metrics.

Solutions to the Schrödinger bridge problem and its generalizations yield feedback control policies for optimal density steering over a controlled diffusion. To numerically compute the same, the dynamic Sinkhorn recursion has become a standard approach. The mathematical engine behind this approach is the Hopf-Cole transform that recasts the conditions for optimality into a system of boundary-coupled linear PDEs. Recent works pointed out that for the control-affine Schrödinger bridge problem, this exact linearity via Hopf-Cole transform, and thus the standard Sinkhorn recursion, apply only if the control and noise channels are proportional. When the channels do not match, the Hopf-Cole-transformed PDEs remain nonlinear, and no algorithm is available to solve the same. We advance the state-of-the-art by designing a Sinkhorn recursion with memory that leverages the structure of these nonlinear PDEs, and demonstrate how it solves the control-affine Schrödinger bridge problem with input and noise channel mismatch. We prove the local stability of the proposed algorithm.

We investigate the Conway–Maxwell multivariate Bernoulli distributions, a family of multivariate Bernoulli distributions derived from the Conway–Maxwell-binomial distribution. We show that it is possible to set the parametrization such that the Bernoulli marginals remain intact, allowing us to study dependence properties within this family. In particular, we demonstrate that this family spans the full spectrum of dependence. Moreover, for specific ranges of the parameters, these distributions satisfy the strongly Rayleigh property, a negative dependence notion stronger than negative association.

Understanding the how the distribution of an economic outcome, such as income, changes with respect to space and covariates is a key concern for policy makers. To address this, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric model, the Normalised Latent Measure Factor Model with Covariates (NLMFM-C), which expresses a large collection of related densities as mixtures of latent factor densities and allows for spatial and covariate effects. We propose an adaptive Gibbs sampler to automatically infer the number of latent factor distributions, and a rotation method to make posterior inference on different data sets comparable. We apply the NLMFM-C model to Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) data, focusing on income distributions for sub-areas of four U.S. states over to different years, 2016 and 2020. We show that the latent factor distributions can be interpreted by income level (e.g., low, medium, and high) and investigate the spatially- and time-changing impact of three covariates: gender, race and educational attainment.

Offline multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) enables policy learning from fixed datasets, but is prone to coordination failure: agents trained on static, off-policy data converge to suboptimal joint behaviours because they cannot co-adapt as their policies change. We introduce CODA (Coordination via On-Policy Diffusion for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning), a diffusion-based multi-agent trajectory generator for data augmentation that samples conditioned on the current joint policy, producing synthetic experience which reflects the evolving behaviours of the agents, thereby providing a mechanism for co-adaptation. We find that previous diffusion-based augmentation approaches are insufficient for fostering multi-agent coordination because they produce static augmented datasets that do not evolve as the current joint policy changes during training; CODA resolves this by more closely simulating on-policy learning and is a meaningful step toward coordinated behaviours in the offline setting. CODA is algorithm-agnostic and can be layered onto both model-free and model-based offline reinforcement learning pipelines as an augmentation module. Empirically, CODA not only resolves canonical coordination pathologies in continuous polynomial games but also delivers strong results on the more complex MaMuJoCo continuous-control benchmarks.

An approach to construct explicit integral representations for two-layer ReLU networks is presented, which provides relatively simple representations for any multivariate polynomial. Quantitative bounds are provided for a particular, sharpened ReLU integral representation, which involves a harmonic extension and a projection. The bounds demonstrate that functions can be approximated with $L^{2}(\mathcal{D})$ errors that do not depend explicitly on dimension or degree, but rather the coefficients of their monomial expansions and the distribution $\mathcal{D}$. We also present a connection to the RKHS of the exponential kernel $K(x,y)=\exp\left(\left\langle x,y\right\rangle \right)$, and a very simple integral representation involving additionally multiplication via a fixed function which has better quantitative bounds.

Deterministic-scan and random-scan component-wise Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as Gibbs samplers and conditional Metropolis-Hastings, are popular approaches for sampling from multivariate distributions. A long-standing open question is to determine the conditions under which these algorithms have similar convergence rates. A block-wise contraction condition for the component-wise updates is used to establish a solidarity principle for the $L^2$ spectral gaps of the associated Markov chains. Specifically, under this condition, the spectral gaps of the random-scan and deterministic-scan versions of the Gibbs and component-wise chains are either simultaneously positive or simultaneously zero. Moreover, the spectral gaps differ by at most polynomial factors in the number of blocks. As an application of the general results, a deterministic-scan conditional Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) for multivariate Gaussian targets is studied. The block-wise contraction condition is combined with known spectral gap bounds for the random-scan Gibbs sampler to obtain a spectral gap bound that is polynomial in dimension. The result is used to clarify how the convergence rate of the conditional MALA depends on the precision matrix of the Gaussian target and the step sizes of the block-wise MALA updates.

Existing large-dimensional theory for spectral algorithms resolves either the optimally tuned point or the interpolation limit, but leaves the under-regularized regime unexplored. We study the learning curve and benign overfitting of spectral algorithms in the large-dimensional setting where the sample size and dimension are of comparable order, i.e., $n \asymp d^{\gamma}$ for some $\gamma>0$. We first consider inner-product kernels on the sphere $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$ and establish a sharp asymptotic characterization of the excess risk across the full regularization path under various source conditions $s \geq 0$, where $s$ measures the relative smoothness of the regression function. Our results reveal that the learning curve is not simply U-shaped but instead consists of three distinct regimes: over-regularized, under-regularized, and interpolation regimes. This characterization allows us to fully capture the benign overfitting phenomenon, demonstrating that benign overfitting arises consistently across both the under-regularized and interpolation regimes whenever $s$ is positive but no larger than a critical threshold. We further show that, in the sufficiently regularized regime, the kernel learning curve is recovered by an associated sequence model. Finally, we extend the learning-curve analysis to large-dimensional KRR for a class of kernels on general domains in $\mathbb{R}^d$ whose low-degree eigenspaces satisfy spectral-scaling and hyper-contractivity conditions.

Perturbing a deterministic $n$-dimensional matrix with small Gaussian noise is a cornerstone of smoothed analysis of algorithms [Spielman and Teng, JACM 2004], as it reduces the condition number of the input to $O(n)$, and with it the complexity of many matrix algorithms. However, when deployed algorithmically, these perturbations are expensive due to the cost of generating and storing $n^2$ Gaussian random variables. We propose a perturbation that requires generating and storing $O(n)$ random numbers in $O(\log n)$ bits of precision, and reduces the condition number of any deterministic matrix to $O(n)$, matching Gaussian perturbations. Our result in particular implies a better complexity for the perturbed conjugate gradient algorithm, showing that we can solve an $n\times n$ linear system in linear space to within an arbitrarily small constant backward error using $O(n)$ matrix-vector products. In our construction, we introduce the concept of a pattern matrix, which is a dense deterministic matrix that maps all sparse vectors into dense vectors, and we combine it with a sparse perturbation whose entries are dependent and located in a non-uniform fashion. In order to analyze this construction, we develop new techniques for lower bounding the smallest singular value of a random matrix with dependent entries.

In this paper, we introduce the weighted cumulative residual Mathai–Haubold entropy and establish its fundamental properties. A dynamic version is developed, and its behavior under linear transformations is studied. Bounds and explicit expressions for some lifetime distributions are derived. Characterization results based on the associated measure are obtained and two new classes of life distributions are formulated. A goodness-of-fit test for the Rayleigh distribution is proposed and its performance is evaluated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. Applications to real data sets demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology

In biomedical studies, paired survival data arise naturally when two event times are observed within the same subject. Existing statistical models seldom accommodate both cure fractions and complex dependence structures. In this paper, we propose a novel bivariate cure frailty-copula model for paired survival data with a cure fraction. By incorporating a zero-inflated gamma frailty, the proposed framework simultaneously accommodates a cure fraction and continuous unobserved heterogeneity among uncured subjects. Dependence between cure statuses is modeled naturally via an odds-ratio parameter, while dependence between survival times conditional on frailty is captured through a copula. To provide interpretable measures of overall dependence in the presence of cure, we derive population-level rank correlation coefficients, namely tie-adjusted versions of Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho. For suitable choices of baseline marginal survival functions and copulas, the joint survival function admits a closed-form expression, enabling maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood ratio testing. Simulation studies demonstrate satisfactory finite-sample performance and favorable comparisons with existing bivariate cure models. In a real-data analysis, the proposed model is favored by information criteria. An R package, curecopula, implementing the proposed methods is publicly available on GitHub.

Soil salinity is a major environmental challenge in coastal Bangladesh, threatening agricultural productivity and local livelihoods. This study develops a machine-learning-based framework to predict and map soil salinity in Satkhira district by integrating field observations with Landsat-derived spectral indices. A total of 205 soil samples collected during 2024-2025 were used to train an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, and predictions were further improved using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Spatial cross-validation was applied to reduce autocorrelation bias, and bootstrap resampling was used to quantify prediction uncertainty. The results show strong spatial variability of soil salinity, with higher concentrations in the southern and central coastal regions and lower levels in the northern inland areas. Vegetation indices, particularly NDVI, along with salinity-related spectral indicators, were identified as key predictors. 10-year-window peak-exposure maps generated for 2014-2023 reveal recurrent high-salinity zones and a persistent, expanding footprint of moderate-to-high salinity exposure across the central parts of the district. Uncertainty analysis indicates higher variability in coastal zones and improved prediction stability when multi-year datasets are combined. The proposed framework provides a robust and scalable approach for long-term monitoring of soil salinity. It supports climate-resilient agriculture, land-use planning, and evidence-based decision-making in coastal Bangladesh.