Papers

In many decentralized supply chains, upstream firms do not observe market demand directly and instead infer downstream conditions from the order stream. A retailer's replenishment policy therefore plays a dual role: it governs inventory replenishment and shapes the information available for upstream forecasting. This creates a fundamental trade-off. Smoother orders improve upstream predictability, but delaying the response to demand can increase downstream inventory costs. We study how a retailer should optimally smooth demand in a two-tier supply chain with one retailer and one manufacturer when the manufacturer forecasts future orders from the retailer's order history. We propose Binomial Smoothing, a class of replenishment policies that implements delayed demand response by spreading each unit of demand over a finite horizon using binomial weights. The class is interpretable, easy to calibrate, and analytically tractable. Under weakly stationary Gaussian demand satisfying mild regularity conditions, we show that, for any fixed smoothing horizon, the Binomial policy minimizes the manufacturer's forecast error among all policies with the same degree of smoothing. It remains invertible, so the manufacturer can recover demand history from observed orders. More generally, Binomial Smoothing achieves a constant-factor approximation guarantee relative to an optimal policy. Our results yield a broader insight: replenishment policies should be designed not merely to reduce order variance, as in the traditional bullwhip measure, but to reduce the unpredictable component of orders. Carefully designed smoothing can improve supply-chain performance and partially substitute for information sharing, providing a concrete mechanism for coordination without collaboration.

Collecting the FIFA World Cup sticker album presents a classic public-goods and collective-action dilemma, in which completing a collection on one's own is highly inefficient. To evaluate how localized community norms shape collective efficiency, we use agent-based modeling and Monte Carlo simulations, parameterized with empirical field observations from exchange meetups in Natal, Brazil. Reflecting the tournament's recent expansion, the Panini 2026 album features 980 individual stickers, including 68 metallic specials. We contrast a standard baseline economy (1:2 special-to-normal exchange ratio) with an overprotective, strict strategy (exclusive special-for-special trading) and an altruistic, generous strategy (in which advanced players surrender needed duplicates to assist peers). Our findings reveal that overprotective rules trap liquidity and drive network-wide inefficiency. The strict strategy increases median completion costs by 10 packs and severely penalizes the least fortunate 5% of collectors, adding 20 packs in large cities and 30 in small communities. Conversely, widespread generosity optimizes network liquidity and dramatically compresses the long tail of bad luck. Introducing the generous strategy reduces required purchases for the 5th percentile by 90 packs in large-scale configurations and 130 packs in smaller clusters. Furthermore, widespread altruism triggers a strong functional coupling that effectively synchronizes completion rates across the network. This study demonstrates that while rigid, protective norms degrade collective welfare, generosity successfully mitigates pack-draw variance, transforming an expensive, isolated hobby into a resilient, highly efficient public good.

The analogy between deep neural network forward passes and renormalization group (RG) flows has been repeatedly noted in the literature, but existing treatments remain qualitative: depth is described as a coarse-graining scale, attention is likened to a partition function, and representations are said to flow toward fixed points. No existing work has defined a measurable RG order parameter, tested it under controlled variation of the input distribution, or made quantitative predictions that are empirically verified. We study the simplest architecture for which the analogy is tractable: a pure MLP residual stack trained on masked token prediction over synthetic Markov chain sequences with known spectral properties. We report three findings. (i) The effective rank of the residual stream decreases monotonically with depth after training, consistent with progressive integration of irrelevant degrees of freedom. (ii) This rank collapse is selective: it occurs for chains with short correlation length approximately 1 but is absent for chains with long correlation length approximately 7, measured at the position level to control for mean-pooling artifacts. The network preserves exactly the degrees of freedom relevant to the prediction task, the content of the RG relevance criterion. (iii) Inter-layer kernel drift is concentrated at one or two specific transitions, with the remainder of the network near a fixed point, consistent with a discrete fixed-point plateau. Together these findings constitute the first quantitative, position-level evidence that MLP residual networks implement a selective coarse-graining procedure governed by the spectral structure of the input distribution.

The Gromov–Wasserstein (GW) distance provides a framework for comparing metric measure spaces, regardless of their underlying structure or geometry. For network-based data, it enables direct comparisons of graphs with different numbers of nodes, without requiring an embedding or other abstraction. Furthermore, through a variant of GW known as fused Gromov–Wasserstein (fGW), it is also possible to incorporate node features in addition to graph structure. In this work, we implement $k$-nearest neighbors ($k$-NN) classification using the GW and fGW distances. We prove the universal consistency of the GW-$k$-NN classifier on the space of equivalence classes of metric measure spaces with finite support and uniform probability measure. By viewing graphs as finitely supported metric measure spaces equipped with the pairwise distance metric and a uniform probability measure on the nodes, we obtain universal consistency of GW-$k$-NN for the space of graphs. Likewise for fGW-$k$-NN, we prove universal consistency on the space of weak isomorphism classes of structured objects consisting of metric measure spaces with finite support and uniform probability measure and feature maps into Euclidean space, thus establishing universal consistency on the space of node-attributed graphs. Our numerical experiments show that GW-$k$-NN and fGW-$k$-NN consistently perform well across multiple graph datasets, suggesting that metric classifiers such as $k$-NN work well in the GW framework.

Identification conditions describe the computability of a target query or parameter of interest as a function of the type and amount of information available. In causal identification, this information is often expressed in the form of a causal graph, and data are observed or collected for some subset of variables in the graph. Target queries may be for a single effect alone or for a class of effects in a given model. The derivation of an identification algorithm then defines mathematically the process by which the desired causal effect(s) can be uniquely determined, theoretically, in expectation. Identifiability in expectation, or 'theoretical identifiability,' generally assumes asymptotic properties, infinite data, or other mathematically idealized conditions. In this paper, we explore a fundamental distinction between this theoretical, idealized notion of identifiability and a proposed alternative that is computation-bound. The framework we propose - 'computational identifiability' - is to instead define a finite computational search procedure for an empirical estimator. If this process finds an estimator empirically, within a desired error tolerance, then identifiability is satisfied, conditional on the specified assumptions of the search (i.e., a prior distribution over the parameters) and conditional on the search procedure itself. Through several experiments, we demonstrate how this framework allows us to answer fine-grained, practical identification questions, such as identification with small finite samples, with ambiguous graphical criteria, with mixed observational-interventional data, and across counterfactual data and estimands. Code is available at https://github.com/lbynum/metadentify.

Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are central to treatment decision-making in personalized medicine. In competing risks settings, estimating CATEs from survival data allows for patient-specific assessments of treatment effectiveness for a specific event of interest while properly accounting for alternative event types. This distinction is essential in the presence of comorbidities, where competing causes of death may otherwise confound the therapeutic benefit. Focusing on right-censored survival times with binary treatment, we examine CATEs defined as covariate-conditional differences in the absolute risk for the event of interest at a fixed time. To this end, we study meta-learners which adapt machine learning algorithms for CATE estimation in competing risks scenarios. We systematically compare six meta-learners, combining Cox regression or random survival forests for risk modeling with elastic net regression or random forests for direct CATE modeling. To provide practical guidance on model selection, we evaluate their performance in multiple simulation settings, that differ in hazard complexity, treatment heterogeneity, treatment assignment, event type distribution and censoring. To facilitate applied use, we provide the R package, crsurvlearners, which implements all considered approaches.

Probability theory provides a clear definition of what is meant by evidence in favor, against or none either way, of an event occurring for an unobserved response, via the principle of evidence. This is immediately applicable when carrying out a proper Bayesian analysis. Even without a prior, this imposes restrictions on reported inferences as these need to reflect the likelihood ordering. Relative belief inferences satisfy this requirement and, when the errors in these inferences are controlled, they also satisfy repeated sampling, or frequentist, requirements such as achieving given confidence levels. Relative belief inferences are considered here for the construction of intervals for uncertainty quantification in the context of a Poisson model for a signal with background noise. These intervals are contrasted with the well-known Feldman-Cousins intervals for this problem.

Obtaining precise erosion measurements requires costly fieldwork, making it infeasible to directly survey large domains such as a province or river basin. To extend fieldwork results across such extensive domains, we propose a novel spatial prediction method that treats local erosion distributions as objects in the Wasserstein space. These distributions are mapped into square-integrable trajectories and represented via basis expansion, forming a multivariate random field that captures spatial dependence. By applying local regression and Kriging in this representation, our approach flexibly models and predicts erosion distributions at arbitrary locations. This framework improves prediction for functionals of the distribution, such as the mean and exceedance probabilities. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms a misspecified parametric alternative and existing Fréchet regression approaches. We illustrate the approach with a detailed erosion analysis in Shaanxi province, China, where local measurements from surveyed watersheds are extended to predict erosion distributions across the entire province using covariates such as land use and elevation.

Covariance estimation yields a fundamental second-order statistic underlying representation learning, dimension reduction, and dependence modeling. While covariance has been well understood in Euclidean spaces, it is ill-defined for random objects residing on nonlinear Riemannian manifolds, which increasingly arise in modern machine learning applications involving shapes, symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices, etc. This paper introduces an intrinsic Riemannian cross-covariance for manifold-valued random objects. Our approach defines covariance and correlation by transporting local variations to a common tangent space via parallel transport, yielding a second-order descriptor that is independent of arbitrary coordinate choices. We establish that the proposed covariance inherits desirable properties of its Euclidean counterparts and characterize its asymptotic behavior. Numerical studies on spheres and SPD manifolds, together with real-data experiments on heart valve shapes in Kendall's shape space, demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimators and verify the stated properties. Our results position the Riemannian covariance as a fundamental tool for second-order learning and analysis in non-Euclidean representation spaces.

We develop a decision-calibrated conformal framework for pacing decisions in streaming advertising. Pacing depends on uncertain future inventory, demand pressure, incremental response, and member-experience load. Instead of calibrating a generic forecast residual, the framework measures forecast error by its largest impact on the policies that could actually be deployed. The main theorem shows that the proposed score is the smallest valid uncertainty measure that uniformly protects all deployable pacing policies. Geometrically, it is the support function of the signed policy sensitivity set. Split conformal calibration gives finite-sample coverage for this score. A high-dimensional separation theorem shows that traditional residual calibration can be arbitrarily more conservative by paying for nuisance inventory dimensions, and a robust pacing result combines inventory, response, and experience uncertainty. On public-data-calibrated pacing replays built from Criteo Uplift and KuaiRand datasets, traditional conformal pacing remains unresolved with high residual radii of 7236.7 on Criteo and 4629.4 on KuaiRand. With the proposed decision calibration approach, the uncertainty radii are reduced to 18.4 and 278.6 respectively, with separate margins for value, delivery, budget, and member load. On Criteo, the proposed method certifies a less aggressive pacing policy than the point-forecast baseline, and reduces held-out any-violation rate from 16.7% to 3.3%, with zero budget and member-load violations. On KuaiRand, the choice remains unresolved. In a nutshell, the paper establishes that forecasts, response estimates, and member-experience models should be judged by whether they shrink the uncertainty that the pacing decision uses, as this leads to confident decisions that are not overly conservative.

Domain-specific text-to-SQL systems ground a large language model by retrieving annotated few-shot examples, and each example needs expert-written SQL. We treat the choice of which queries to annotate as constrained experimental design on the low-dimensional manifold of query embeddings, with query-dependent annotation noise, a partition matroid constraint that spreads selections across semantic domains, and an unknown covariance structure. We propose a stratified greedy algorithm that maximizes a heteroscedastic information-gain objective. We prove that the objective is monotone and submodular under query-dependent noise, so stratified greedy selection carries a 1/2-approximation guarantee under the partition constraint. Under kernel misspecification the guarantee degrades by an additive spectral term; we compute it on both experimental pools and find it too large for the bound to be quantitatively informative. To connect the design objective to the downstream task, we give a retrieval model that bounds few-shot accuracy from below by per-domain fill distance, demonstration noise, and domain coverage, and we calibrate its locality assumption on both pools. On an enterprise supply-chain corpus and on the BIRD benchmark, the selected banks improve cross-domain retrieval and end-to-end LLM SQL over random and distance-based selection at the same annotation budget. Stratified controls and pre-specified tests show that the gain comes from the partition constraint: uniform sampling within each stratum matches the full method in the oracle-label evaluations, farthest-point selection within strata adds a little at small budgets, and the noise weighting has no measurable effect. The practical advice is to annotate one example per domain per batch from the first batch on.

Covariate measurement error is pervasive in epidemiological research and distorts estimated exposure-outcome associations, yet correction methods have been studied almost exclusively under linear modelling assumptions. Their behaviour when the underlying association is non-linear and is itself estimated with flexible regression, remains poorly characterised. We report a blinded, multi-stage neutral comparison simulation study, conducted within the STRATOS initiative, evaluating measurement error correction coupled with flexible modelling of functional form. Six families of correction methods (pointwise and coefficient-based Simulation Extrapolation [SIMEX], Bayesian inference on the logit and risk scales, Multiple Imputation [MI], and Regression Calibration [RC]) were each combined with B-splines (BS), penalised splines (PS), fractional polynomials (FP), and natural splines (NS), yielding 23 analytic methods. Methods were applied to case-control data generated under five functional forms (J-shape, linear, two threshold models, and saturation) across simulated datasets spanning varying sample sizes, replication substudy sizes, error magnitudes, and error distributions, with classical additive error and a replication substudy for error calibration. Performance was assessed by the log mean squared error of the estimated function over the central 95 % of the exposure distribution. Pointwise SIMEX was the most accurate and most robust approach overall, followed by Bayesian methods and RC when paired with PS, FP, or NS; MI performed less well, and Bayesian estimation with unpenalised BS performed worst. PS, FP, and NS were near-equivalent, whereas BS was consistently inferior. No single method dominated across all scenarios, underscoring the value of sensitivity analyses.

Current-status data arise when an event time is observed only through an indicator of whether it occurred before an examination time. This paper studies a nonparametric neural-network sieve maximum likelihood estimator of the conditional cumulative distribution function of the event time. Under Hölder smoothness assumptions, we establish an explicit convergence rate by combining approximation theory for rectified linear unit neural networks with empirical-process arguments. This result provides theoretical support for neural-network estimation and subsequent inference under current-status observation.

This paper presents a nonlinear parameter estimator for Wiener-type state-space models obtained as a fixed-point architecture that couples two affine minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimators: one for the unknown parameters and one for latent variables. The architecture retains the functional structure of the optimal affine MMSE parameter estimator while incorporating Dynamic Basis Statistics (DBS) estimates that summarize nonlinear basis-function evaluations. Two DBS construction strategies are developed, leading to two nonlinear estimator frameworks. The dual basis-parameter estimator combines an affine basis estimator with the affine parameter estimator, whereas the dual state-parameter estimator first computes affine state estimates and their covariances, then maps these state-estimate statistics through a Gaussian DBS operator to obtain DBS estimates. Both dual estimators admit fixed-point characterizations that alternate between estimating each component using the updated prior of the other, obtained from that component's plug-in estimate statistics from the previous iteration. The efficacy of the proposed methods is examined via extensive Monte Carlo experiments, showing that the dual basis-parameter estimator attains parameter mean-squared errors comparable to those of the purely affine parameter estimator, while the dual state-parameter estimator achieves the lowest parameter mean-squared error, outperforming both the dual basis-parameter and purely affine parameter estimators, as well as sequential Monte Carlo variants of classical Particle Gibbs and Expectation-Maximization schemes.

We study distributional data under sparse sampling where each unit is represented by a probability distribution on the real line observed only through a small i.i.d.~sample. A natural notion of central tendency for one-dimensional distributional data is the Wasserstein barycenter, whose quantile function is the pointwise average of the unit-level quantile functions. We focus on pointwise estimation of the Wasserstein barycenter quantile function: at a given quantile level, the target is the population mean of the corresponding unit-level quantiles. A naive plug-in estimator is the empirical Wasserstein barycenter, which treats observed unit-level empirical distributions as the true latent unit-level distributions. Under sparse sampling, however, this estimator can be severely biased. We propose an approach that avoids directly estimating either the unit-level distributions or the full population law of distributions. We start with the more ambitious goal of characterizing the distribution of latent unit-level quantiles at a given quantile level. We show that this distribution can be written in terms of the marginal distributions of the unit-level CDF values, which can be estimated using binomial mixture methods. This motivates our estimator, the marginal-constructed barycenter (MCB) estimator, obtained by taking the mean of the estimated distribution of latent unit-level quantiles. We establish conditions under which the MCB estimator is pointwise consistent and asymptotically normal, and show through simulations that it can substantially outperform the empirical Wasserstein barycenter under sparse sampling. We illustrate the method in an analysis of HIV-1 sequence data from the HVTN 502/503 vaccine efficacy trials, using the barycenter to summarize and compare within-participant distributions of viral sequence features when only a small number of sequences are available per participant.

Embedding a standardized measure of physiologic stress in electronic health records (EHR) could be instrumental to preventative care. The allostatic load index (ALI), calculated from ten biomarkers across three body systems, offers a promising snapshot of cumulative strain. The ALI can be calculated from EHR data, but many components are missing, since not all patients undergo all tests. Using statistical modeling and machine learning, EHR data for $707$ patients from a large academic health system ($17\%$ of whom were hospitalized), were used to predict in-patient hospitalization from ALI, controlling for age and sex. Various methods were evaluated to fill in information gaps for patients' missing ALI components, including summary measures combining components or using them separately. Performance was measured using various discrimination, calibration, and hybrid metrics. Discriminative performance was fair to low and calibration low to moderate for both model types. Brier scores indicated good overall accuracy across models. Summary measure approaches performed similarly with respect to most metrics. Separate component methods, especially pattern submodels, showed potential improvement over summary measures in the full sample, but their advantages did not persist under cross-validation. Most summary measure models had moderate discrimination and calibration ability. When cross-validated, separate component models appeared overfit and performed similarly to (or worse than) summary measures. Researchers may want to prioritize whichever summary measure was most interpretable or appropriate for their beliefs about missingness. Next steps include developing refined prediction models from EHR-derived ALI to improve performance and enhance clinical relevance.

Surface winds can vary substantially from one minute to the next, so there is scope for studying its variation on this fine time scale. Restricting to the month of June to minimize seasonality, this work develops a range of machine learning models for generating realistic time series of surface wind vectors at a site in Lamont, Oklahoma based on more than 30 years of high quality measurements at the minute time scale. Such a generator could be used as an input into models from a range of disciplines, notably for wind energy, but also wildfire spread and aviation, among others. The data show complex diurnal structures in both wind speed and direction that would be challenging to capture with standard time series models, so we consider a number of machine learning approaches to producing a stochastic wind generator based on time vector-quantized variational autoencoders. We consider generating a day's worth of data at a time and generating a day of wind vectors conditional on the previous day's winds. We also study methods for incorporating a discrete weather state variable in the generator. We evaluate the generators using a wide range of formal and informal methods. The best of these generators can capture many but not all of the complex features present in the observational data. In particular, the best of our approaches accurately mimic diurnal changes in wind volatility but struggle to match the observed distribution of extreme wind speeds.

We generalize the universal approximation theorem for functional input neural networks (FNN) to differentiable maps by including the approximation of the derivatives. A FNN maps the input from a possibly infinite-dimensional weighted manifold to the real-valued hidden layer, on which a non-linear scalar activation function is applied, and then returns the output into a Banach space via some linear readouts. By proving a weighted Nachbin theorem, we establish a universal approximation theorem for differentiable maps, which goes beyond the usual formulation on compact sets and also includes the approximation of the derivatives. This leads us to approximation results for non-anticipative functionals including the horizontal and vertical derivatives. As a further application, we show that linear functions of the signature are able to approximate path space functionals including their directional derivatives.

We consider a variant of the linear contextual stochastic multi-armed bandits, where the learner must provide recommendations to a group of users, each having its personalized preference vector, and in the presence of context distributions that are drifting over time. Under practitioner-friendly assumptions, we reduce this setting to linear bandit with stationary mean but heteroskedastic and non-stationary noise. We further study the case when the learner must ensure the mean reward of each decision must exceed that of a baseline strategy $\boldsymbol{\pi}_0$ at each decision step. We introduce Dri-MED, an algorithm inspired from the linear version of the MED strategy, and carefully adapted to handle the non-stationary heteroskedastic noise. We show that the instance-dependent regret scales as $\tilde{\mathcal O}\left(\frac{\kappa}{\tilde{\Delta}}d^2(\log(T)\right)$, where $\tilde{\Delta}$ is the constraint-aware sub-optimality gap subject to policy $\pi_0$, with variance-aware multiplicative term $\kappa$ that we carefully handle using heteroskedastic regression. We further show Dri-MED enjoys $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d)$ expected constraint violations. Our numerical results suggest that Dri-MED significantly outperforms conservative baselines that ignores the drift and preference structure.

We study an online version of the robust mean change point detection problem under a dynamic Huber contamination model with arbitrary contamination distribution and inlier distribution possessing exponentially- or polynomially-decaying tails. This robustness framework is systematically studied for the first time in the change point literature. For univariate data, we characterise the detection delay by partitioning the parameter space into four regimes, in terms of the true change location, signal size and contamination level. Efficient detection procedures are accompanied by matching lower bounds, up to poly-logarithmic factors. For the multivariate setting, we devise an efficient robust mean testing procedure and apply this to the robust online change point problem. The theoretical analysis of the robust mean testing procedure is the first in dealing with both Huber contamination and heavy-tailedness, and is thus of independent interest. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to support our theoretical findings.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a central tool for sample-efficient design, and latent-space Bayesian optimization (LSBO) extends it to structured objects such as molecules and proteins. In parallel, tabular foundation models such as TabPFN and TabICL now achieve state-of-the-art regression performance and are increasingly used as BO surrogates. Because their Bayesian behavior is induced by large synthetic pretraining collections, the composition of this pretraining distribution is crucial. LSBO creates a distinctive mismatch: the induced map from latent code to objective value differs markedly from the regression tasks used to train current in-context models. We address this mismatch by complementing the pretraining stage of tabular foundation model surrogates with synthetic optimization tasks defined on the latent space of a molecular VAE. The continued-pretraining objective features a regularizer that anchors the model to the original checkpoint, preserving its broad regression prior while avoiding overspecialization to the adaptation tasks. On held-out molecular optimization benchmarks, the resulting model achieves strong performance, supporting the relevance of LSBO-specific adaptation for in-context surrogates.

In the sense of Baire categories, we prove that the set of pairs of bivariate copulas that are comparable – in either direction – under the increasing convex order is nowhere dense in the space of all pairs of bivariate copulas equipped with the uniform metric. As a consequence, a topologically generic pair of bivariate copulas is not comparable under this order. We further extend the Baire-category programme to two additional stochastic orders on the space of bivariate copulas: the bivariate convex order and the stop-loss order on the sum of the components. For each of these orders, we establish that the set of comparable pairs is closed and nowhere dense, and we show that a topologically generic pair of bivariate copulas is simultaneously incomparable in all three orders. These results complement those obtained in [F. Durante, J. Fernández-Sánchez, C. Ignazzi (2022). Baire category results for stochastic orders. Rev. Real Acad. Cienc. Exactas Fis. Nat. Ser. A-Mat. 116, article 188] for the lower orthant order on copulas.

Differential equations play a critical role in scientific discovery because they provide a mathematical framework to describe the behaviour of physical phenomena. As a promising alternative to traditional first principles, data-driven differential equation discovery has attracted increasing attention for its ability to infer governing laws directly from experimental or simulated data, especially when the underlying physics is unclear. However, the field has expanded rapidly along diverse methodological directions, particularly with the emergence of AI-based approaches, and still lacks a clear organizing perspective. In this Review, we propose a problem-oriented perspective on data-driven differential equation discovery. We first introduce a two-dimensional phase diagram of equation discoverability, where discovery problems are organized according to structural complexity and coefficient complexity. This phase diagram shows how the field has moved from the discovery of sparse equations with simple coefficients toward more complex governing laws with richer structures and more flexible parameterizations. It also clarifies why different methodological families succeed or fail in different problem settings. We then present the representation-evaluation-optimization (REO) framework as a fundamental abstraction of the discovery process. By identifying the core problems of equation discovery that persist across algorithmic variations, REO shifts the discussion from individual algorithms to the fundamental principles that determine discoverability. We connect these perspectives to applications across physics and adjacent sciences, and argue that the next challenge is not merely recovering equations, but using them to revise existing theories, distil mechanisms and form new scientific concepts.

This paper proposes a synthetic control (SC) framework for the estimation of conditional distributional treatment effects. Identification rests on a parallel trends condition formulated in the parameter space of the semiparametric distribution regression (DR) model, which keeps the counterfactual conditional distribution within the model class. The weights solve a least-squares problem subject to an adding-up constraint, yielding a closed-form estimator. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the counterfactual estimator, with DR estimation error and weight estimation error contributing at the same rate to the asymptotic variance. Moreover, we propose a supremum test for the null of no treatment effect, whose limit is the supremum of a Gaussian process. Simulations illustrate that conditioning on covariates can reveal effects being difficult to detect from the unconditional distribution alone. An application to the 1992 New Jersey minimum wage increase using CPS data finds effects concentrated in the minimum-wage corridor for low-education, low-experience workers.

Bayesian inverse problems constrained by state equations are often sampled in a full parameter-state space by penalising the residual, rather than in a reduced space where the state is eliminated. We show that these formulations are not automatically equivalent as posterior measures. For finite-dimensional discretisations of equality-constrained inverse problems, assume the state equation \(c(\theta,u)=0\) has a unique solution \(u=G(\theta)\) and nonsingular state Jacobian \(\D_u c\). The reduced posterior, its graph lift, and the zero-noise residual posterior are then distinct. A local change of variables shows that an uncorrected Gaussian residual penalty converges, after marginalisation over \(u\), to the reduced density multiplied by \(\abs{\det \D_u c(\theta,G(\theta))}^{-1}\). Thus algebraically equivalent residuals can define the same feasible set but different limiting posteriors. We derive determinant corrections for unweighted, weighted, and rescaled residual penalties that have the graph-lifted reduced posterior as their hard-constraint limit. The result separates feasibility from posterior calibration: driving the residual to zero is not sufficient for exact sampling of the graph-lifted reduced posterior unless the sampling or correction step targets the corresponding corrected density.

Recent work argues for using Gaussian differential privacy (GDP) to report the privacy guarantees in privacy-preserving machine learning. We provide principled mappings from pure-DP $\varepsilon$ to GDP $\mu$ by matching the worst-case success of a strong-adversary membership inference attack in terms of three metrics: multiplicative advantage at fixed FPR, precision at fixed recall, and the standard privacy profile. We tabulate $\mu$ values across a useful range of parameters and recommend $\mu \approx \varepsilon/5$ as a conservative general-purpose conversion.

Probabilistic forecasters are increasingly learned, yet the baselines they are compared against are often weak or omitted. We show that the simplest possible conformal interval - a last-value point forecast wrapped in a finite-sample split-conformal residual quantile, with no parameters and no training - is a far stronger baseline than its near-total absence from recent learned-forecasting and conformal-time-series comparisons would suggest. In one-step-ahead online forecasting across 2,217 real series from nine public sources (Monash, LOTSA, the LTSF traffic/electricity/weather suites, METR-LA, BOOM, nips/probts), this ConformalNaive interval decisively beats the naive value-quantile baselines, the entire NPTS family (NPTS 73%, SeasonalNPTS 64% of series), and the published Conformal Seasonal Pools (CSP) method (71% of series, bootstrap 95% CI [69,73], paired Wilcoxon p approx 7.6e-135); it is on par with the simpler learned conformal predictors (RCI, quantile regression; median relative Winkler within 2%) and is beaten only by the adaptive-online and ensemble methods (SPCI, ACI, AgACI), which track distribution shift and lead by 9-33% relative Winkler. It is also better calibrated than a trained neural forecaster: on the six datasets that introduced DeepNPTS, the trivial floors cover the truth 84-85% of the time at a nominal 95%, versus DeepNPTS's 66%. At multi-step seasonal horizons the picture inverts: the random-walk floor is the weakest method and the seasonal pool (CSP) wins - a boundary we map. Finally we give ConformalNaive+, a one-line, training-free, horizon-adaptive selector that attains the better of two complementary floors at every horizon with restored coverage. We argue the matching conformal naive floor must be a mandatory baseline whenever a learned probabilistic forecaster claims gains.

Feature interactions drive much of the predictive power of machine learning models, yet existing explanation methods only detect and quantify interactions without revealing their functional form, or visualize only restricted interaction types. We propose Surrogate-based Analysis of Interactions via Local Effect Smooths (SAILS), a model-agnostic framework that analyzes pairwise interactions through generalized additive model (GAM) surrogates fitted to the local effects of a black-box model. For each interval of a feature of interest, the surrogate smooth terms isolate the interaction components on derivative level, enabling (i) interaction detection through a heuristic derived from significance tests on smooth terms, (ii) interaction form categorization into linear, product-separable, and non-product-separable types, and (iii) tailored, interpretable visualizations for each interaction type. We empirically validate the framework through controlled simulations and a real-world task, showing its effectiveness for pairwise interactions, with limitations under strong feature correlations and higher-order interactions. SAILS fills a notable gap in the eXplainable AI (XAI) toolbox, going beyond detecting interactions alone to characterizing their functional form.

Kling-Gupta efficiency ($\mathrm{KGE}$) is a model performance evaluation metric widely used in hydrology, but its properties as a statistical estimator have remained unexplored. We formalize the Kling-Gupta loss $L_\mathrm{KG} = (1 - \mathrm{KGE})^2$ in an extremum estimation framework (maximizing $\mathrm{KGE}$) for multiple linear regression. We give explicit formulas showing that Kling-Gupta regression scales the ordinary least squares (OLS) coefficient vector by a variance-inflation factor depending on sample variances and covariances. Its predictions reproduce the training set response variance, unlike OLS's variance reduction, while both maintain the response mean and achieve the same sample correlation. We prove that no estimator simultaneously maximizes Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ($\mathrm{NSE}$) and $\mathrm{KGE}$: OLS maximizes $\mathrm{NSE}$ but not $\mathrm{KGE}$, whereas Kling-Gupta regression maximizes $\mathrm{KGE}$ at the expense of $\mathrm{NSE}$. We establish almost-sure convergence of the Kling-Gupta estimator to well-defined population limits. The training and test set performance metrics for both estimators converge asymptotically to identical limits (different for OLS vs. Kling-Gupta). In a single-predictor model with fixed intercept, we identify conditions where a global minimum of $L_\mathrm{KG}$ does not exist because of discontinuity at zero slope. This work establishes a mathematical foundation for $\mathrm{KGE}$-based estimation and clarifies its effects on predictive performance in hydrologic modeling.

Large language models have been widely evaluated as simulators of individual survey responses. In practice, however, fully unobserved responses are rare; the dominant problem is partial non-response. Imputation aims to restore the overall structure of a survey dataset by filling in these missing values. It has its own well-defined evaluation criteria and differs fundamentally from prediction. We propose to impute missing survey data through in-context learning (ICL). We systematically evaluate ICL design choices across different missingness mechanisms (MCAR, MAR, MNAR) on 150 opinion variables spanning 15 waves of the American Trends Panel. Compared to well-established statistical methods for data imputation like MICE PMM, our ICL approach consistently reduces absolute error across all missingness mechanisms, with the largest gains under non-random missingness (MNAR). Notably, the best-performing specification (gpt-oss-120b with 100 in-context examples) achieves near-nominal aggregate coverage (approaching the 95% level) with confidence intervals two to five times narrower than MICE PMM. We publish a Python package with an sklearn-like API to enable easy deployment of our method using local and proprietary LLMs.