Papers

Kernel density estimation risk expansions are commonly expressed through the integrated squared curvature term that enters second-order AMISE and plug-in bandwidth rules. This paper develops a weak-curvature formulation of this classical calculation for densities whose second derivative exists weakly rather than as a continuous classical function. We prove that if a density has square-integrable weak curvature, then the standard second-order AMISE expansion, oracle bandwidth order, and kernel-dependent optimality calculation remain valid with the curvature functional understood in the weak sense. The class $C^{1,1}(\mathbb{R})\setminus C^2(\mathbb{R})$ serves as a concrete and practically relevant subclass: the first derivative is Lipschitz, while curvature may be kinked, discontinuous, or undefined at isolated points. Building on this formulation, we introduce a generalized-curvature plug-in (GCPI) bandwidth selector. The selector estimates the weak-curvature functional by a pilot density-derivative estimator with a leave-one-out U-statistic correction and substitutes this estimate into the AMISE bandwidth formula. We prove first-order oracle equivalence under ratio-consistent weak-curvature estimation and establish consistency of the proposed U-statistic curvature estimator under explicit pilot-bandwidth conditions. We also give a scalar-bandwidth multivariate extension based on weak Hessians and illustrate the theory through nonsmooth density examples, simulations, and a real-data application.

Many recent flow-matching and diffusion-style generative models rely on auxiliary stochastic dynamics during training: a richer process is simulated to define conditional targets, but the auxiliary state is either intractable to sample at generation time or simply not part of the desired output. Existing Generator Matching theory formalises conditioning on static latent random variables, and several recent papers prove special cases of projection results for particular augmented-state constructions. We introduce latent process generator matching, a general framework that treats the observed generative state as a deterministic image $X_t=\Phi(Y_t)$ of a tractable Markov process $Y_t$. We show that in this setting one may learn the generator of a stochastic process on the image space which has the same one-time marginal distributions as the projected process. This generalizes and subsumes the discrete latent process results from the literature, and extends Generator Matching from static latent variables to a rich family of time-dependent latent conditional processes.

Transfer learning is an essential technique for many machine learning/AI models of complex structures such as large language models and generative AI. The essence of transfer learning is to leverage knowledge from resolved source tasks for a new target task, especially when the sample size $m$ of the training data for the latter is low. In this work, we rigorously analyze the potential benefit of transfer learning in terms of sample efficiency. Specifically, taking an optimal transport viewpoint of transfer learning, we find that when the data dimension $d$ is higher than $3$, the sample complexity for transfer learning is $O(m^{-(\alpha+1)/d})$, with $\alpha$ indicating the smoothness of the data distribution, as opposed to the $O(m^{-p/d})$ sample complexity for direct learning with $p$ indicating the smoothness of the optimal target model. Our finding theoretically supports a better sample efficiency for transfer learning, when the target task is optimizing over a family of not-so-smooth models (i.e., highly complex networks with the possible use of non-smooth activation functions). Using image classification as an example, we numerically demonstrate the sample efficiency for transfer learning, that is, in the data hungry regime, the model performance can be significantly improved by transfer learning.

The expected signature uniquely determines the law of a random rough path under a moment-growth condition, yet finite-sample bounds for estimating its truncations from a single long dependent trajectory remain unavailable. We study a strictly stationary stochastic process equipped with a geometric rough-path lift, observed in non-overlapping blocks of equally-spaced samples, and prove a non-asymptotic mean-squared error (MSE) bound for the block-averaging estimator of its truncated expected signature. Under moment and stationarity assumptions together with a direct covariance-decay condition on block signatures – strictly weaker than $\alpha$-mixing and applicable to long-range-dependent processes – the error separates into a discretization term and a fluctuation term, with rates determined respectively by path regularity and dependence strength. A levelwise rough-factorial variance analysis keeps finite-truncation constants explicit and yields an optimal allocation rule under a fixed observation budget. We verify the assumptions for independent-coordinate fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes in three regimes: short-range (Hurst $1/4<H<1/2$), semimartingale ($H=1/2$), and long-range ($H>1/2$); in all three, the block-signature covariance is summable, so the fluctuation term decays at the same rate as in the independent-block case, even under long memory at $H>1/2$. Monte Carlo experiments show empirical slopes steeper than the guaranteed upper-bound rates.

While deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of domains, their underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood, and they are often regarded as black boxes. This gap between empirical performance and theoretical understanding poses a challenge analogous to the pre-axiomatic stage of classical geometry. In this work, we introduce the Pursuit of Subspaces (PoS) hypothesis, an axiomatic framework that formulates neural network behavior through a set of geometric postulates. These axioms, together with their derived consequences, provide a unified perspective on representation, computation, and generalization in both shallow and deep architectures. We show that this framework yields geometric explanations for fundamental questions in deep learning, including representation structure, architectural mechanisms, and generalization behavior, offering a principled step toward a coherent theoretical foundation.

We introduce FLASH-MAX, a shallow, exact-by-construction neural network architecture for predicting homogeneous electromagnetic fields from sparse pointwise observations. Each hidden neuron represents a separate exact solution to Maxwell's equations, so that the network satisfies the governing equations symbolically by construction and can be trained end-to-end from sparse data within seconds. We prove a universal approximation result showing that this exact model class remains universal on arbitrary domains. FLASH-MAX reaches sub-1% relative validation error from about 1K sparse pointwise observations in seconds, all while maintaining a zero PDE residual, and keeps single-digit errors even for only 100 observations sampled from 3D space. These results suggest that moving governing structure from the loss into the hypothesis class can dramatically improve the trade-off between precision and optimization speed in scientific machine learning.

The problem of detecting new signals in the presence of an unknown background is ubiquitous in scientific discoveries and is especially prominent in the physical sciences. Most solutions proposed thus far to address the problem focus on estimating the background distribution and using that estimate to infer the signal. By studying the geometry of the problem, this article demonstrates that estimating the background distribution is somewhat unnecessary for inferring the signal intensity. Instead, it suffices to estimate a single parameter, referred to as the compensator, to account for the incomplete knowledge on the background, substantially simplifying the problem's complexity and enabling proper uncertainty propagation. Such a compensator is shown to govern the conservativeness of the inference, both in the proposed setup and in likelihood-based approaches.

We address out-of-distribution (OOD) detection across the full spectrum of distribution shifts – global domain changes, semantic divergence, texture differences, and covariate corruptions – through a multi-encoder fusion of per-encoder representation-space diffusion models (RDMs). We statistically identify each encoder's sensitivity to specific shift types from ID data alone and introduce EncMin2L – an encoder-agnostic two-level $\min(\cdot)$-gate that combines and calibrates per-encoder diffusion-based likelihood detectors without OOD labels, outperforming monolithic multi-encoder baselines at $2.3\times$ lower parameter cost. Two ID-data diagnostics: $\eta^2$ (class-conditional F-test) and $\Delta\mu$ (log-likelihood shift under synthetic corruptions) – quantify encoder specialization, while a Tippett minimum $p$-value combination aggregates per-encoder scores into a single, calibration-stable OOD signal. EncMin2L achieves $\geq 0.94$ AUROC across all four shift types simultaneously, outperforming the state-of-the-art representation-space diffusion OOD detectors across overlapping benchmarks.

Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS, the Wind-focused Hurricane Interactive Track Simulator, a non-parametric semi-Markov model that generates a 10,000-year global synthetic catalog of tropical cyclone tracks. WHITS builds new storms by resampling variable-length segments of historical tracks, with segment choices conditioned on local wind speed, location, storm age, and forward motion. This structure preserves both the statistical grounding of the historical record and a form of system memory along realized storm pathways. The resulting catalog reproduces observed track density and the annual probability that hurricane- or typhoon-force winds pass a given location across the major tropical cyclone basins. WHITS is designed to support climate risk analysis, insurance applications, and extreme event research over operational planning time scales by providing a large, low-bias sample of physically plausible storms. This low-bias design is important for applications in which introduced bias cannot simply be corrected after the fact and small errors in storm frequency, track, or intensity can substantially affect loss estimates. Because loss accumulates along the storm path, track geometry matters: storms that loop, stall, or turn sharply can produce damage footprints that differ fundamentally from straight-moving events. By preserving these irregular shapes while greatly expanding the sample of plausible storms, WHITS provides risk analysts, insurers, and coastal planners with information unavailable from observations alone.

Effective medication management in Parkinson's Disease (PD) is challenging due to heterogeneous disease progression, variable patient response, and medication side effects. While AI models can forecast levodopa equivalent daily dose (LEDD) as a measure of medication needs, standard uncertainty quantification often fails to communicate the reliability of these predictions, treating high and low confidence clinical decisions identically. We introduce CASCADE (Calibrated Adaptive Scaling via Conformal And Distributional Estimation), a novel conformal prediction framework that propagates epistemic uncertainty from a screening classifier to adapt downstream predictions. Unlike standard conformal methods that rely on auxiliary residual regression, we leverage epistemic uncertainty from a primary classification task (identifying whether a medication change is needed) to dynamically scale the prediction intervals of a secondary regression task (predicting how much change). By mapping Venn-Abers multi-probabilistic uncertainty directly to non-conformity scores, our framework achieves continuous risk adaptation. We demonstrate that this cascade effect produces highly efficient intervals for confident patients (38.9% narrower than standard conformal baselines) while automatically expanding intervals to ensure robust coverage for uncertain cases, bridging the gap between discrete clinical decision-making and continuous dose forecasting in PD.

We study the contradiction graphs associated with a binary concept class. For a class $H\subseteq\{0,1\}^X$, the order-$m$ contradiction graph $G_m(H)$ has as vertices the $H$-realizable labeled sequences of length $m$, with two vertices adjacent when the two sequences assign opposite labels to some common domain point. First, we identify a graph-theoretic property that determines the threshold predicate $\operatorname{VCdim}(H)\ge m$. Consequently, the sequence $(G_m(H))_{m\ge1}$ determines the exact VC dimension and, in particular, distinguishes finite from infinite VC dimension, answering a question posed by Alon et al. (2024). We then generalize this result by proving that the sequence of contradiction graphs determines, up to signed relabeling, the realizable datasets of any fixed length. Thus, any learning-theoretic property determined by the realizable datasets of a fixed length and invariant under signed relabeling can be recovered from the contradiction graph sequence. As an application, we explicitly provide a characterization of Littlestone dimension.

Accurately detecting home locations from GPS data generated by mobile devices is a foundational step in human mobility research, with significant implications for transportation planning, public health, and emergency response. However, existing home detection algorithms often produce unreliable results for noisy real-world data and are barely validated due to a lack of ground-truth benchmarks. To tackle these limitations, this study presents the development and validation of a Grid-based home detection via Stay-Time (GHOST) algorithm, implemented as an open-source Python package. The algorithm infers proxy home locations by identifying the most frequently visited nighttime or weekend daytime grid cells based on customizable spatial and temporal filters. To validate its performance, we use the large-scale BostonWalks dataset, which includes over 155,000 trips from 377 participants in the Boston metropolitan area, to test robustness to noisy data. Additionally, we collected a ground-truth dataset for ten volunteers across different regions in the U.S., including Florida, Mississippi, and Colorado, along with their self-reported home coordinates, to evaluate GHOST across diverse mobility patterns and sampling conditions. We compared GHOST accuracy to that of 5 well-established home detection algorithms: All-time clustering method, Stay-point method, DBSCAN, K-MEANS++, and SciKit-Mobility Home Detection, across multiple parameter settings. Results show that GHOST outperforms all algorithms in accuracy and robustness, with average errors as low as 22.3 meters under optimal configurations. Our findings highlight the high accuracy and flexibility of our algorithm, with grid size being the most influential parameter during validation, demonstrating the potential of this algorithm for real-world mobile location data analysis.

Infrastructure deterioration poses significant challenges for asset management, yet existing approaches rely on population-averaged models that overlook equipment-specific heterogeneity. We present a novel framework that combines Bayesian hierarchical hazard modeling with causal discovery to identify operational patterns that drive heterogeneous deterioration rates in pump equipment. Our approach first estimates pump-specific random effects $u_i$ using GPU-accelerated No-U-Turn Sampling (NUTS), achieving 3–5$\times$ speedup over CPU implementations. We then employ DirectLiNGAM to discover causal relationships between 22 engineered time-series features and deterioration rates, stratified by positive ($u_i > 0$, faster deterioration) versus negative ($u_i \leq 0$, slower deterioration) random effects. Analyzing 112 pumps with 92,861 observations over 650 days, we uncover striking heterogeneity: the negative group exhibits causal effects 400$\times$ larger than the positive group, with standard deviation (std) showing a strong positive causal effect ($+1.515$) on deterioration rates in low-risk equipment. We validate linearity assumptions through NonlinearLiNGAM comparison and demonstrate practical scalability through GPU acceleration. Our findings enable targeted maintenance strategies by revealing that different operational regimes require fundamentally distinct management approaches, advancing predictive maintenance from population-averaged to heterogeneity-aware decision making.

Simulating realistic wet and dry spells is central in weather generators and climate-impact studies. While finite-order Markov chains are standard, they often fail to reproduce persistent dry conditions due to their inherent subexponential decay. We model rainfall occurrence by introducing a duration-augmented binary Markov chain. We establish a link with alternating renewal chains, enabling flexible parametric modelling of wet and dry spell duration distribution. We model those using two regime-adapted specifications from the general class of extended Generalized Pareto Distributions, yielding flexible tail behaviour across various climates. We use estimation methods adapted to each specification. Our model is applied to around 200 stations in the South of Europe spanning diverse Mediterranean and continental climates. We compare this framework to standard Markov models in characterising persistence and high-quantile extrapolation. The approach is generic, extending naturally to multi-state settings or other binary sequence applications in environmental statistics.

Identifying latent variables and the causal structure involving them is essential across various scientific fields. While many existing works fall under the category of constraint-based methods (with e.g. conditional independence or rank deficiency tests), they may face empirical challenges such as testing-order dependency, error propagation, and choosing an appropriate significance level. These issues can potentially be mitigated by properly designed score-based methods, such as Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) (Chickering, 2002) in the specific setting without latent variables. Yet, formulating score-based methods with latent variables is highly challenging. In this work, we develop score-based methods that are capable of identifying causal structures containing causally-related latent variables with identifiability guarantees. Specifically, we show that a properly formulated scoring function can achieve score equivalence and consistency for structure learning of latent variable causal models. We further provide a characterization of the degrees of freedom for the marginal over the observed variables under multiple structural assumptions considered in the literature, and accordingly develop both exact and continuous score-based methods. This offers a unified view of several existing constraint-based methods with different structural assumptions. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Synthetic control methods can produce misleading counterfactual predictions when outcome series contain unit-specific stochastic trends, a common feature of nonstationary macroeconomic data. Existing remedies, such as pre-filtering or differencing, reduce spurious matching but may discard shared nonstationary variation that helps estimate donor weights. We propose Harmonic Synthetic Control (HSC), which replaces this binary choice with a soft allocation mechanism. HSC jointly estimates donor weights and a treated-unit-specific smooth residual component, then extrapolates this component into post-treatment periods using a time-series forecaster. A tuning parameter, selected by rolling-origin cross-validation, governs the division between donor matching and forecasting. As it varies, HSC continuously interpolates between synthetic control applied to differenced outcomes and synthetic control applied to raw outcomes with an intercept or trend. We provide a spectral interpretation showing how HSC downweights low-frequency residual components in donor matching and assigns them to the forecasting branch. A prediction-error decomposition separates weight-estimation distortion from residual-forecasting error. Monte Carlo exercises show that HSC adapts across regimes, performing well when stochastic trends are predominantly common or idiosyncratic, while estimators fixed to one regime can fail in the other.

Labeling a training set is often expensive and susceptible to errors, making the design of robust loss functions for label noise an important problem. The symmetry condition provides theoretical guarantees for robustness to such noise. In this work, we study a symmetrization method arising from the unique decomposition of any multi-class loss function into a symmetric component and a class-insensitive term. In particular, symmetrizing the cross-entropy loss leads to a linear multi-class extension of the unhinged loss. Unlike in the binary case, the multi-class version must have specific coefficients in order to satisfy the symmetry condition. Under suitable assumptions, we show that this multi-class unhinged loss is the unique convex multi-class symmetric loss. We also show that it has a fundamental local role: the linear approximation of any symmetric loss around score vectors with equal components is equivalent to the multi-class unhinged loss. We then introduce SGCE and alpha-MAE, two loss functions that interpolate between the multi-class unhinged loss and the Mean Absolute Error while allowing control of the beta-smoothness of the loss. Experiments on standard noisy-label benchmarks show competitive performance compared with existing robust loss functions.

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing out the latent variables. For LGMs with a non-Gaussian likelihood, exact marginalization is not possible and a popular approach is to do approximate marginalization with an integrated Laplace approximation (ILA). Using ILA produces an approximate posterior which, in some settings, can differ significantly from the correct posterior, which impacts downstream applications. We propose an importance sampling scheme to correct the error introduced by ILA. By increasing the number of samples in importance sampling, the posterior with ILA converges to the correct posterior. This idea is realized with various techniques, including pseudo-marginalization, quasi-Monte Carlo and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo. We implement our methods in an automatic differentiation framework to support gradient-based algorithms when doing inference on the hyperparameters. For the latter, we specifically consider the use of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the benefits of reduced error in various applied models.

This work addresses the challenges of robust covariance estimation and interpretable outlier detection for multivariate functional data with separable covariance structure. We develop a method that simultaneously improves robustness and interpretability in this context by establishing a connection between stochastic processes with separable covariance structures and the corresponding matrix-variate distribution of their basis representations. Leveraging this connection, we employ the recently developed matrix-variate counterpart of the Minimum Covariance Determinant estimator (MMCD) in conjunction with a truncated multivariate functional Mahalanobis semi-distance to robustly estimate mean and covariance for multivariate functional data. For interpretable outlier detection, we generalize multivariate outlier explanations based on Shapley values to decompose overall multivariate functional outlyingness into time-coordinate-specific contributions. Importantly, we reduce the otherwise exponential computational complexity (relative to the number of components) to linear complexity, while retaining the key properties of the Shapley value. This integrated framework combines robust Mahalanobis distances, MMCD estimators, and Shapley value-based outlyingness decomposition to provide a robust and interpretable approach for analyzing multivariate functional data with separable covariance structures. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated through both theoretical analysis and practical applications, including simulations and real-world examples.

Background: Days Alive and at Home (DAH) over a pre-defined follow-up period is a novel post-intervention composite outcome that combines data from at least three components: (i) initial length of hospital stay, (ii) length of total readmissions or other post-discharge care and (iii) mortality. Missing values bring unique challenges to the analysis of trials with the DAH outcome as the three components may have different rates of missingness caused by distinct missing data mechanisms. Current approaches define DAH as missing if any of the components are missing, and proceed with complete cases or Multiple Imputation (MI) of the composite. Methods: Through a simulation study motivated by the NOTACS trial, we compare several methods of handling missing data, including complete case analysis, MI of the composite, and MI of the components when the primary analysis is a Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test. Results: MI on the component level has good properties in terms of type I error control and power. We caution against the use of MI on the composite level with Predictive Mean Matching, which can lead to type I error inflation. Conclusions: Given the complex distributional characteristics of DAH, naive approaches such as defining missingness on the composite level and directly imputing the composite with Predictive Mean Matching, can lead to type I error inflation. Imputing on the component level is recommended, suggested future work included imputation approaches that are compatible with more complex definitions of DAH, as well as recommendations for sensitivity analyses to the Missing at Random assumption.

The proliferation of generative artificial intelligence has given rise to an interactive learning environment, where model parameters are continuously updated using not only data generated by natural processes, but also synthetic outputs produced by other models. This paradigm introduces two major challenges: (1) training data are no longer drawn exclusively from the target population, undermining a core assumption of classical statistical learning, and (2) model training processes become inherently correlated, as models interact with one another through repeated exposure to each other's synthetic outputs in a potentially complex manner. Establishing reliable statistical inference in such structured interactive learning environments therefore remains an important open problem. In particular, there is growing concern about model collapse, a phenomenon in which the performance of generative models progressively degrades as they are trained on synthetic data produced by earlier model generations. Prior work on model collapse primarily focuses on a single model trained on its own output, failing to capture model performance in multi-model interactive settings. In this work, we fill this gap by investigating the performance of generative models in an interactive learning environment with general interaction patterns. In particular, we formalize model interactions using directed graphs and show that the occurrence of model collapse depends critically on the topology of the interaction graph. We further derive an explicit necessary and sufficient condition characterizing when model collapse occurs, and establish finite-sample results for linear regression and asymptotic guarantees for general M-estimators. We support our theoretical findings through extensive numerical experiments.

Gaussian process (GP) predictive distributions are commonly used in Bayesian optimization (BO) to guide the selection of evaluation points for expensive objective functions. The choice of kernel and hyperparameters has a strong influence on the exploration–exploitation trade-off. For minimization, sampling criteria such as expected improvement (EI) depend on both the probability mass below the current best value and the shape of the predictive distribution in this region. This article studies goal-oriented calibration of GP predictive distributions below a low threshold $t$ in the noiseless setting, for standard GP models with hyperparameters selected by maximum likelihood. We consider two complementary forms of calibration below $t$ for inputs distributed according to a reference measure $\mu$: occurrence calibration over the design space and thresholded $\mu$-calibration on sublevel sets of the form $\{x\in\mathbb{X}, f(x)\le t\}$. We propose tcGP, a post-hoc method that combines these two forms of calibration for GP predictive distributions below $t$. With fixed GP hyperparameters, the exact EI sampling criterion based on tcGP generates a sequence of evaluation points that is dense in the design space. Experiments on standard benchmarks show improved lower-tail calibration and BO performance relative to standard GP models and globally calibrated GP models.

In the era of precision medicine, genome-wide epigenetic modifications offer rich data that could inform risk prediction. However, these data are high-dimensional and exhibit complex dependence structures, which makes it difficult to jointly model them with low-dimensional covariates when the goal is to obtain interpretable effect estimates for covariate adjustment. Standard Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) provide strong predictive performance but treat all predictors uniformly within the tree ensemble, obscuring the contributions of significant covariates and complicating variable selection in high-dimensional settings. We propose a semi-parametric BART model (spBART) that addresses this limitation by modeling low-dimensional covariates through a parametric component with interpretable coefficients, while capturing complex nonlinear associations among high-dimensional predictors through the tree ensemble. To perform stable variable selection, we develop a cross-validation-based procedure that aggregates posterior inclusion probabilities across folds and applies Bayesian false discovery rate control. We apply the proposed method to a pooled case–control analysis of high-dimensional genome-wide 5-hydroxymethylcytosine profiles derived from circulating cell-free DNA in two multiple myeloma studies ($N = 869$). The approach identifies a parsimonious set of candidate loci and achieves strong out-of-sample discrimination (AUC $= 0.96$) in a held-out validation set. Overall, spBART provides a unified framework for combining interpretable covariate inference with flexible modeling and variable selection in high-dimensional biomedical studies.

Risk management is an important part of financial practice, essential for protecting assets and investments in modern-day volatile markets. This paper proposes a mixture of mirrored Weibull (MMW) distribution for modelling stock returns and estimating risk measures. Unlike common practices which are typically based on the normal distribution, the MMW model can flexibly accommodate non-normal features frequently exhibited in financial data. It also enjoys appealing properties such as having a simple density expression and fast parameter estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model by assessing its performance in Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation of three S&P500 stocks. The MMW model compares favourably to Gaussian mixture model and t-mixture model, with significant improvements in VaR estimation and prediction.

In clinical studies, persistence, which measures the duration of time a patient continues to take a prescribed medication without discontinuation, is increasingly recognized as a critical indicator of adherence to medication. Adherence encompasses not only whether a patient takes their medication as prescribed but also the consistency and duration with which they do so. Among the various metrics used to evaluate adherence, persistence stands out as a particularly robust measure because it provides a temporal dimension, reflecting the sustained commitment of patients to their therapeutic regimens. This focus on persistence offers unique insights into adherence-related quality and performance, shedding light on the challenges and opportunities to optimize long-term medication use. The comparison of upper-tail clinical performance, which measures the extent to which very large responses persist among top responders, is often more decisive in therapy evaluation than conventional summaries. In this paper, we introduce the quantile-based effectiveness persistence function defined as the ratio between the tail mean and the quantile function. The notion parallels expected shortfall in risk theory and is tailored to detect clinically meaningful deviations in the upper tail. We establish key properties and show that the function is equivalent to the first L-moment of the scaled tail, yielding robust inference tools. We derive a simple nonparametric estimator of the function and develop a bootstrap-calibrated two-sample (upper-tail) equivalence test. Simulation studies and real-data analysis illustrate that the proposed measures captures clinically relevant tail persistence that complements median and mean-based summaries.

Privacy constraints have driven the rise of federated learning (FL), which enables multi-site analyses without sharing individual participant data. Existing FL estimators largely assume complete data, whereas multi-site studies often face missingness. We develop a framework for FL with missing data, identifying conditions under which the complete case (CC) estimator is preferred over the inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator. For settings where the CC estimator leads to bias, we introduce a calibrated weight estimation approach that combines candidate weighting models across sites and remains consistent if at least one is correctly specified at each site; we further show that pooling many weighting candidate models with redundant information degrades the calibrated estimator, so a small set is preferable. Consistency conditions are stated at the site level, ensuring that the federated estimator inherits validity from site-level properties. We prove consistency and derive a sandwich variance estimator that accounts for uncertainty in the outcome model, and in both the estimated weighting models and the calibration step. Additionally, we show that all estimators require only one or a few communication rounds, making them practical under real-world data-governance constraints. We illustrate the framework by evaluating risk factors for 90-day mortality among patients with pleural infections treated with intrapleural enzyme therapy.

Squared Wasserstein distance is a frequently used tool to measure discrepancy between probability distributions. This distance is typically computed between empirical measures of size $n$ from two underlying random samples. Unfortunately, even in lower dimensional Euclidean space problems $\left( d \in \{2,3\} \right)$, algorithms for Wasserstein distance computation with approximate or exact precision guarantees scale poorly in the runtime as a function of $n$ and the desired precision. In response, we consider the computational-statistical runtime, where the goal is to estimate from samples the Wasserstein distance between potentially smooth measures up to $\epsilon$-additive error in expectation with respect to the sampling; we allow $O(1)$ computational cost for collecting a sample. Towards this, we develop a Sample-Sketch-Solve paradigm where we introduce a regular cartesian grid sketch of the samples. We show that (especially under $\alpha$-Hölder smooth distributions) this can compress the data without increasing asymptotic error, and also regularizes the structure which enables faster exact algorithms. Ultimately, we approximate $W_2^2(P,Q)$ within $\epsilon$ error in $\epsilon^{-\max(2,\frac{d+1+o(1)}{1+\alpha})}$ time for $0 < \alpha < 1$ Hölder smooth distributions $P,Q$ on $(0,1)^{d}$; an optimal $\Theta(\epsilon^{-2})$ for $\alpha > 1/2$ when $d=2$ and nearly optimal as $\alpha \to 1$ when $d = 3$.

Independent component (IC) models are a standard tool for representing multivariate data in statistics, signal processing, and machine learning. Despite the extensive use of IC models, much less attention has been given to goodness-of-fit tests for assessing their compatibility with data. We develop the first goodness-of-fit test for IC models that is supported by a theoretical validity guarantee when the data dimension and sample size diverge proportionally. This is made possible by the fact that the test does not rely on a pre-whitening step, which often limits the applicability of other goodness-of-fit tests in high dimensions. Our theoretical analysis is complemented with numerical experiments that demonstrate the test's size control and power under a range of conditions. In addition, we provide examples involving gene-expression data to illustrate that the test has potential for effective diagnostic use in practice.

Standard generative models struggle with heavy-tailed data: Lipschitz architectures cannot produce power-law tails from Gaussian noise, and interpolating between heavy-tailed data and Gaussians is ill-posed. We propose a simple fix: apply the soft-log transform $\phi(x) = \mathrm{sign}(x) \cdot \log(1 + |x|)$ coordinate-wise to data before training, then exponentiate samples after generation. A Hill diagnostic decides per-coordinate whether to transform, leaving light-tailed margins untouched at no added complexity. This compresses heavy tails into a range where standard flow matching succeeds, without heavy-tailed base distributions or architectural modifications. We provide theoretical intuition for why this works: the log-transform maps Pareto tails to exponentials, and the induced dynamics implement a form of tail annealing via power transformations. On a 144-configuration multivariate benchmark (3 copulas, $d$ up to 100, 4 tail indices), Log-FM dominates specialized baselines on $W_1$, CVaR$_{99}$, and extreme-quantile metrics, and is the only method with zero severe divergences across 2{,}880 runs.

Existing identification results in proximal causal inference often focus on marginal interventional distributions using standard outcome or treatment bridge functions. These methods do not generally identify joint interventional distributions that contain all proxy variables that were used to define the corresponding bridge functions. In many applications, however, these joint interventional distributions are a natural target of interest. We introduce extended bridge functions and derive new identification results for joint interventional distributions that may retain all relevant proxy variables. We then apply these results to proximal identification algorithms, where interventional kernels naturally arise as intermediate objects, yielding a generalized framework based on kernel operations.