Papers

We study the evaluation of real-valued point predictors under the decision-theoretic framework of mean-consistent loss functions given by the Bregman divergences. We first derive a new version of Murphy's decomposition of the expected loss which does not directly include the response itself but only its predictors. We then relate the miscalibration and the discrimination component of Murphy's decomposition to Lorenz-curve-based accuracy measures that are widely used in practice. Besides the usual area between the concentration and Lorenz curves, ABC, we introduce a mean-squared version ABC$^2$ that mitigates some of the weaknesses of the original ABC in identifying mean-calibration. More importantly, both ABC and ABC$^2$ are shown to rely on predictor-dependent weights, so they fail to align with the class of mean-consistent scoring functions. In the same spirit, we derive a similar result for the widely used Gini score. These results indicate that ABC, ABC$^2$ and Gini scores may lead to misleading evaluation of point predictions when used for model selection; this gives support to use mean-consistent loss functions and their Murphy's decomposition. Finally, we study forecast dominance when Lorenz curves intersect. In the one-crossing case, we establish weaker dominance criteria for subclasses of Bregman divergences through third-degree stochastic dominance.

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically focus on a single coverage level and do not ensure consistency across multiple confidence levels. In many real-world applications, such as weather forecasting, macroeconomic prediction, and risk management, different users operate under heterogeneous risk tolerances and require calibrated uncertainty estimates across a range of coverage levels. In such settings, it is desirable to produce prediction sets corresponding to different coverage levels that are nested and valid simultaneously. In this paper, we propose two novel online conformal prediction methods that output nested prediction sets across a range of coverage levels, enabling simultaneous uncertainty quantification across the entire risk spectrum. Beyond interpretability, jointly estimating multiple coverage levels is known to improve statistical efficiency in classical quantile regression by enforcing non-crossing constraints and sharing information across quantiles. Our approaches leverage an online optimization perspective with small regret that translates to quantile estimation error control while enforcing nestedness of prediction sets. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets, including applications in forecasting tasks with heterogeneous risk requirements, demonstrate that our method achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency compared to existing online conformal baselines.

Reinforcement learning agents for portfolio management are typically trained and deployed as static policies, with no mechanism for policy adjustments using price forecasts at inference time. We propose FinPILOT (Financial Plugin Inference-time Learning for Optimal Trading), a plugin inference-time policy optimization framework inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC). Under the price-taker assumption, portfolio actions do not affect future market prices, allowing a multi-step price forecaster to provide imagined market trajectories without iterative action-conditioned rollouts. At each decision step, FinPILOT uses the forecaster's predicted price trajectory to construct an allocation-based imagined return objective and optimizes the pretrained policy at inference time before executing one step of the trade. Our framework is compatible with any pretrained policy and adapts the policy using the forecaster's predictions without modifying the original RL training pipeline. Evaluated with five pretrained policies (PPO, SAC, A2C, TD3, DDPG) across DJ30 equities and foreign exchange (FX) over three rolling held-out test years (30 settings in total), FinPILOT improves Total Return in 28 of 30 settings and Sharpe ratio in 27 of 30, with gains spanning both stochastic and deterministic policies. Direct single- and multi-period portfolio optimizers supplied with the same forecasts do not reproduce these aggregate gains under our evaluation protocol. Further, using controlled forecasts at calibrated quality levels, we show that both the magnitude and consistency of FinPILOT's performance increase as forecast error is reduced.

The theoretical understanding of differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) with temporally correlated noise remains limited, particularly for non-convex neural network training. As a first step, we study two-layer Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), a recently introduced architecture with learnable spline-based edge functions. We establish the first optimization risk bounds for clipped mini-batch DP-SGD with correlated noise in this setting, with explicit dependence on temporal correlation, clipping, mini-batch sampling, and network width. Existing arguments fail for three reasons: temporal dependence breaks the conditional-centering step; projection obstructs the cross-iteration cancellation of correlated perturbations; and active clipping breaks the empirical-gradient structure. We address these issues through shifted and auxiliary dynamics, a weighted empirical loss, and a high-probability localization argument. Our bound shows that temporal correlation reduces the leading noise terms, the clipping threshold enters essentially through an effective step size, and private training admits an explicit network width range. Experiments on synthetic data and MNIST support the predicted optimization effect of temporal correlation. As an application, we derive population risk guarantees via algorithmic stability. Our framework recovers non-private mini-batch SGD, independent-noise DP-SGD, and their full-batch counterparts as special cases.

Modeling dependencies between random variables independently from their marginals is fundamental in applications ranging from finance to (structural) biology. In this work, we undertake this problem using circula to model data living on the $d$-dimensional flat torus $\mathbb{T}^d$, making two contributions. First, using a low rank covariance structure to define circulae based on a latent variable model, we design the first closed-form normalized distribution on the flat torus $\mathbb{T}^d$–with covariance structure. Second, building on this framework, we propose the first models for joint distributions of torsion angles (backbone and side-chains) for neighboring amino-acids in proteins. In practice, we fit mixtures on flat torii from $\mathbb{T}^{2}$ to $\mathbb{T}^{14}$, and show they are SOTA in terms of likelihood and sparsity. We anticipate that these models will prove fundamental to move from discrete structural studies like in AlphaFold2, to thermodynamics and kinetics, which are the ultimate goals in theoretical biophysics.

Zador's celebrated theorem is a cornerstone of optimal quantisation, establishing both the weak limit of the empirical distribution of an $n$-point optimal quantiser in $R^d$ and the decay rate of the associated $L_s$-mean quantisation error. However, for large dimensions $d$, observing this asymptotic behaviour demands an astronomically large sample size $n$, which grows super-exponentially with $d$. Through a detailed analysis of the quantisation problem for spherically symmetric distributions, we demonstrate that for moderate $n$ random quantisers uniformly distributed on a sphere of suitable radius $r$ achieve exceptional performance. The expected distortion, expressed as a triple integral, can be computed with arbitrary precision, and the optimal radius $r$ can be efficiently determined numerically. Leveraging results from extreme-value theory, we derive approximations for $r$, particularly in scenarios where $n$ scales with $d$. Depending on the growth rate of $n$, $r$ may either converge to zero or approach a limiting value that is independent of $s$.

We introduce Pion, a spectrum-preserving optimizer for large language model (LLM) training based on orthogonal equivalence transformation. Unlike additive optimizers such as Adam and Muon, Pion updates each weight matrix through left and right orthogonal transformations, preserving its singular values throughout training. This yields an optimization mechanism that modulates the geometry of weight matrices while keeping their spectral norm fixed. We derive the Pion update rule, systematically examine its design choices, and analyze its convergence behavior along with several key properties. Empirical results show that Pion offers a stable and competitive alternative to standard optimizers for both LLM pretraining and finetuning.

We propose an algorithm to sample from composite log-concave distributions over $\mathbb{R}^d$, i.e., densities of the form $\pi\propto e^{-f-g}$, assuming access to gradient evaluations of $\alpha_f$-convex $f$ and a restricted Gaussian oracle (RGO) for $\alpha_g$-convex $g$, where $\alpha_g \ge 0$. The latter requirement means that we can easily sample from the density $\text{RGO}_{g,h,y}(x) \propto \exp(-g(x) -\frac{1}{2h}||y-x||^2)$, which is the sampling analogue of the proximal operator for $g$. If $f + g$ is $\alpha$-convex and $f$ is $\beta$-smooth, our sampler achieves $\varepsilon$ error in total variation distance using $\widetilde{\mathcal O}(\kappa \sqrt d \log^4(1/\varepsilon))$ oracle calls where $\kappa := 1 \vee \beta/\alpha$, with $0\le \alpha_g \le \beta$ and $\alpha := \alpha_f + \alpha_g > 0$, which matches prior state-of-the-art results for the case $g=0$. We further extend our results to cases where (1) $\pi$ is non-log-concave but satisfies a Poincaré or log-Sobolev inequality, and (2) $f$ is non-smooth but Lipschitz.

We propose and analyze a model-based bootstrap for transition kernels in finite controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with possibly nonstationary or history-dependent control policies, a setting that arises naturally in offline reinforcement learning (RL) when the behavior policy generating the data is unknown. We establish distributional consistency of the bootstrap transition estimator in both a single long-chain regime and the episodic offline RL regime. The key technical tools are a novel bootstrap law of large numbers (LLN) for the visitation counts and a novel use of the martingale central limit theorem (CLT) for the bootstrap transition increments. We extend bootstrap distributional consistency to the downstream targets of offline policy evaluation (OPE) and optimal policy recovery (OPR) via the delta method by verifying Hadamard differentiability of the Bellman operators, yielding asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and $Q$-functions. Experiments on the RiverSwim problem show that the proposed bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs), especially the percentile CIs, outperform the episodic bootstrap and plug-in CLT CIs, and are often close to nominal ($50\%$, $90\%$, $95\%$) coverage, while the baselines are poorly calibrated at small sample sizes and short episode lengths.

Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to be fixed before calibration, typically through data splitting. We introduce multi-variable conformal prediction (MCP), a framework that extends conformal prediction to vector-valued score functions with multiple simultaneous calibration variables. Building on scenario theory as a principled framework for certifying data-driven decisions, MCP unifies prediction set design and calibration into a single optimization problem, eliminating data splitting without sacrificing coverage guarantees. We propose two computationally efficient variants: RemMCP, grounded in constrained optimization with constraint removal, which admits a clean generalization of split conformal prediction; and RelMCP, based on iterative optimization with constraint relaxation, which supports non-convex score functions at the cost of possibly greater conservatism. Through numerical experiments on ellipsoidal and multi-modal prediction sets, we demonstrate that RemMCP and RelMCP consistently meet the target coverage with prediction set sizes smaller than or comparable to those of baselines with data split, while considerably reducing variance across calibration runs - a direct consequence of using all available data for shape optimization and calibration simultaneously.

Learning-to-Defer (L2D) methods route each query either to a predictive model or to external experts. Real-world deployments require handling streaming data, changing expert availability, shifting expert reliability, and feedback observed only for the selected action. We introduce an online multiclass L2D algorithm that combines queried-action bandit feedback with a dynamically varying pool of experts. Let $N=n+n_e$, let $B$ bound the Frobenius norm of the linear score matrix, and let $\rho$ bound the augmented input norm. Assuming linear calibration and zero surrogate minimizability gap for the projected comparator class, our method achieves expected true-deferral regret $O((BN^{3/2}\rho+1)T^{2/3})$, improving to $O(BN^{3/2}\rho\sqrt T+B^2N^3\rho^2)$ under a concentrated-score condition. The analysis combines an online $\mathcal H$-consistency transfer bound with projected online convex optimization. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate selective routing under varying expert availability and reliability.

Sampling from constrained distributions has a wide range of applications, including in Bayesian optimization and robotics. Prior work establishes convergence and feasibility guarantees for constrained sampling, but assumes that the feasible set is connected. However, in practice, the feasible set often decomposes into multiple disconnected components, which makes efficient sampling under constraints challenging. In this paper, we propose MAnifold Sampling via Entropy Maximization (MASEM) for uniform sampling on a manifold with an unknown number of disconnected components, implicitly defined by smooth equality and inequality constraints. The presented method uses a resampling scheme to maximize the entropy of the empirical distribution based on k-nearest neighbor density estimation. We show that, in the mean field, MASEM decreases the KL-divergence between the empirical distribution and the maximum-entropy target exponentially in the number of resampling steps. We instantiate MASEM with multiple local samplers and demonstrate its versatility and efficiency on synthetic and robotics-based benchmarks. MASEM enables fast and scalable mixing across a range of constrained sampling problems, improving over alternatives by an order of magnitude in Sinkhorn distance with competitive runtime.

Operator learning has been highly successful for continuous mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, such as PDE solution operators. However, many operators of interest-including differential operators-are discontinuous or set-valued, and lie outside classical approximation frameworks. We propose a paradigm shift by formulating approximation via graph convergence (Painlevé-Kuratowski convergence), which is well-suited for closed operators. We show that uniform and $L^p$ approximation are fundamentally inadequate in this setting. Focusing on maximally monotone operators, we prove that any such operator can be approximated in the sense of local graph convergence by continuous encoder-decoder architectures, and further construct structure-preserving approximations that retain maximal monotonicity via resolvent-based parameterizations.

Tests of independence are an important tool in applications, specifically in connection with the detection of a relationship between variables; they also have initiated many developments in statistical theory. In the present paper we build upon and extend a recently established link to Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science, exemplified by the appearance of copulas in connection with limits of permutation sequences, and by the connection between quasi-randomness and consistency of pattern-based tests of independence. The latter include classical procedures, such as Kendall's tau, which uses patterns of length two. Longer patterns lead to tests that are consistent against large classes of alternatives, as first shown by Hoeffding (1948) with patterns of length five, and by Yanagimoto (1970) and Bergsma and Dassios (2014) for patterns of length four. More recently Chan et al.\ (2020) characterized quasi-randomness for sets of patterns of length four, which leads to several new consistent pattern-based test for independence. We give a detailed and complete description of the respective limiting null distributions. In connection with the power performance of the tests, which is of interest for practical purposes, we provide results on their (local) asymptotic relative efficiencies. We also include a small simulation study that supports our theoretical findings.

Time-variant reliability analysis is a critical task for ensuring the safety of engineering dynamical systems subjected to stochastic excitations. However, assessing failure probability for realistic systems with Monte-Carlo simulation-based methods is often computationally intractable due to the high cost of the underlying models and the large number of simulations required. While surrogate models such as polynomial chaos expansions or Kriging are well-established for time-invariant reliability problems, their direct application to time-dependent systems remains challenging. This chapter introduces two advanced surrogate modeling frameworks designed specifically for dynamical systems: manifold-NARX (mNARX) and functional NARX (F-NARX). The mNARX approach constructs the surrogate on a reduced-order manifold of auxiliary state variables, enabling the efficient handling of high-dimensional inputs by embedding physical insight into a regression formulation. Conversely, the F-NARX framework exploits the functional nature of system trajectories, extracting principal component features from continuous time windows to mitigate issues associated with discrete lag selection and long-memory effects. We demonstrate the efficacy of these methods on two benchmark reliability problems: a stochastic quarter-car model and a hysteretic Bouc-Wen oscillator. The results highlight that, when combined with suitably biased experimental designs, both frameworks accurately capture the tail behavior of the system response, enabling precise and efficient estimation of first-passage probabilities.

We study optimal policy learning under combined budget and minimum coverage constraints. We show that the problem admits a knapsack-type structure and that the optimal policy can be characterized by an affine threshold rule involving both budget and coverage shadow prices. We establish that the linear programming relaxation of the combinatorial solution has an O(1) integrality gap, implying asymptotic equivalence with the optimal discrete allocation. Building on this result, we analyze two implementable approaches: a Greedy-Lagrangian (GLC) and a rank-and-cut (RC) algorithm. We show that the GLC closely approximates the optimal solution and achieves near-optimal performance in finite samples. By contrast, RC is approximately optimal whenever the coverage constraint is slack or costs are homogeneous, while misallocation arises only when cost heterogeneity interacts with a binding coverage constraint. Monte Carlo evidence supports these findings.

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose to bypass the parameter posterior and focus directly on approximating the posterior predictive distribution. We achieve this by drawing inspiration from self-training within self-supervised and semi-supervised learning. Essentially, we quantify a Bayesian model's predictive uncertainty by refitting on self-predicted data. The idea is strikingly simple: If a model assigns high likelihood to self-predicted data, these predictions are of low uncertainty, and vice versa. This yields a deterministic, sampling-free approximation of the posterior predictive. The modular structure of our Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation (SSLA) further allows us to plug in different prior specifications, enabling classical Bayesian sensitivity (w.r.t. prior choice) analysis. In order to bypass expensive refitting, we further introduce an approximate version of SSLA, called ASSLA. We study (A)SSLA both theoretically and empirically in regression models ranging from Bayesian linear models to Bayesian neural networks. Across a wide array of regression tasks with simulated and real-world datasets, our methods outperform classical Laplace approximations in predictive calibration while remaining computationally efficient.

Information-theoretic generalization bounds based on the supersample construction are a central tool for algorithm-dependent generalization analysis in the batch i.i.d.~setting. However, existing supersample conditional mutual information (CMI) bounds do not directly apply to sequential decision-making problems such as online learning, streaming active learning, and bandits, where data are revealed adaptively and the learner evolves along a causal trajectory. To address this limitation, we develop a sequential supersample framework that separates the learner filtration from a proof-side enlargement used for ghost-coordinate comparisons. Under a row-wise exchangeability assumption, the sequential generalization gap is controlled by sequential CMI, a sum of roundwise selector–loss information terms. We also establish a Bernstein-type refinement that yields faster rates under suitable variance conditions. The selector-SCMI proof strategy applies to online learning, streaming active learning with importance weighting, and stochastic multi-armed bandits.

Mixed-frequency data, where variables are observed at different temporal resolutions, commonly occur in economic and financial studies. Classical synthetic control methods (SCM) are ill-suited for such data, often necessitating aggregation or prefiltering that may discard valuable information. This paper proposes a novel Mixed-Frequency Synthetic Control Method (MF-SCM) to integrate mixed-frequency data into the synthetic control framework effectively. We develop a flexible estimation procedure to construct synthetic control weights under mixed-frequency settings and establish the theoretical properties of the MF-SCM estimator. Specifically, we first prove that the estimator achieves asymptotic optimality, in the sense that it achieves the lowest possible squared prediction error among all potential treatment effect estimators from averaging outcomes of control units. We then derive the asymptotic distribution of the average treatment effect (ATE) estimator using projection theory and construct confidence intervals for the ATE estimator. The method's effectiveness is demonstrated through numerical simulations and two empirical applications concerning the 2017 Tax Cuts and jobs Act in US and air pollution alerts.

Neural likelihood surrogates (e.g., Neural Ratio Estimation) for stochastic process models are commonly trained via probabilistic classification on simulated data, which forces a tradeoff between surrogate quality and training costs. For structured models where the exact score $\nabla_\theta \log p(x \mid \theta)$ is available, this information can be incorporated into training by augmenting the cross-entropy loss with a score-matching term. However, the optimal weighting of the two losses is not known a priori, and selecting it by hand requires expensive tuning that undercuts the computational savings. We propose an adaptive, tuning-free algorithm that sets the score loss weights during training based on loss gradients, adding minimal overhead to standard classifier training. We evaluate our approach on case studies involving network dynamics and spatial processes, demonstrating that it improves surrogate quality at a drastically lower computational cost than generating more training data. Notably, in some cases, our approach achieves downstream inference performance equivalent to a 10x increase in training data with less than a 1.1x increase in training time.

Test procedures for multiple hypotheses in a group sequential clinical trial that control the family-wise error rate are considered. Several graphical group sequential tests suggested in the literature, which are special cases of Bonferroni-closure tests, are discussed. The focus is on the question of whether to consider at the current stage only the evidence of the current repeated p-value or the evidence over all repeated p-values from the previous stages. A new test strategy controlling the family-wise error rate is introduced that consistently works across all hypotheses, with the evidence (i.e., repeated p-value) from the current stage. The strategy is more powerful than similar previously suggested test procedures. This is achieved by using the evidence from previous stages to increase the significance levels. For the test procedures, corresponding compatible simultaneous confidence intervals are presented, having the disadvantage of often not providing additional information on the treatment effects. For this reason, we extend previous work about informative simultaneous confidence intervals for one-stage graphical tests to graphical group sequential trials. Iterative algorithms are introduced that calculate these informative bounds that have a small power loss compared to the original graphical group sequential test. The boundaries can be calculated after each stage. In addition, previous work is extended by a criterion to estimate the accuracy of the numerically calculated boundaries. The suggested informative bounds can be used to provide median-conservative, i.e., reliable estimators, for estimating the treatment effects in a group sequential test with multiple hypotheses.

We present a new class of Bayesian dynamic models for bivariate price-realized volatility time series in financial forecasting. A novel dynamic gamma process model adopted for realized volatility is integrated with traditional Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) for asset price series. This represents reduced-form volatility leverage and feedback effects through use of realized volatility proxies in conditional DLMs for prices or returns, coupled with the synthesis of higher frequency data to track and anticipate volatility fluctuations. Analysis is computationally straightforward, extending conjugate-form Bayesian analyses for sequential filtering and model monitoring with simple and direct simulation for forecasting. A main applied setting is equity return forecasting with daily prices and realized volatility from high-frequency, intraday data. Detailed empirical studies of multiple S&P sector ETFs highlight the improvements achievable in asset price forecasting relative to standard models and deliver contextual insights on the nature and practical relevance of volatility leverage and feedback effects. The analytic structure and negligible extra computational cost will enable scaling to higher dimensions for multivariate price series forecasting for decouple/recouple portfolio construction and risk management applications.

Shared frailty models have been proposed to accommodate unmeasured cluster-specific risk factors through the inclusion of a common latent frailty term. Among possible frailty distributions, the Gamma distribution is appealing due to its non-negativity, flexibility, and algebraic tractability leading to closed-form marginal survival or hazard function expressions. Under the Bayesian paradigm, the posterior distributions of model parameters are usually explored with computationally intensive procedures relying on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. As an alternative, Laplacian-P-splines (LPS) provide a flexible and sampling-free alternative by relying on Gaussian approximations of the posterior target distributions. In this model class, analytical formulas are obtained for the gradient and Hessian, yielding a computationally efficient inference scheme for estimation of model parameters with a natural way of quantifying uncertainty. This article extends the LPS toolbox to the inclusion of shared Gamma frailty models for clustered time-to-event data. We assess the finite-sample performance of the LPS estimation procedure through an extensive simulation study and compare estimates with those obtained using penalized partial likelihood estimation, without specification of the baseline hazard, and with the variance of the frailty term being estimated using profile likelihood. Finally, the proposed LPS estimation method is exemplified using three publicly available biomedical datasets on: (i) recurrent infections in children, (ii) cancer prevention, and (iii) kidney transplantation.

We present the results of a large number of simulation studies regarding the power of various goodness-of-fit as well as non-parametric two-sample tests for multivariate data. In two dimensions this includes both continuous and discrete data, in higher dimensions continuous data only. In general no single method can be relied upon to provide good power, any one method may be quite good for some combination of null hypothesis and alternative and may fail badly for another. Based on the results of these studies we propose a fairly small number of methods chosen such that for any of the case studies included here at least one of the methods has good power. The studies were carried out using the R packages MD2sample and MDgof, available from CRAN.

Neural operators provide a framework for learning solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs), enabling efficient surrogate modeling for complex systems. While universal approximation results are now well understood, quantitative approximation analysis specific to nonlinear reaction-diffusion systems remains limited. In this paper, we study Laplacian-based neural operators applied to the solution mapping from initial conditions to time-dependent solutions of nonlinear reaction-diffusion systems. By exploiting the Laplacian spectral representation of the diffusion semigroup, we obtain polynomial complexity bounds on the network depth, width, and spectral rank, demonstrating that Laplacian eigenfunction-based neural operators can exploit the structure of the underlying PDE while avoiding the curse of parametric complexity encountered in generic operator learning. Numerical experiments support the theoretical findings and illustrate the benefit of Laplacian eigenfunction representations compared with Fourier-based spectral representations.

Uncertainty quantification has become an important factor in understanding the data representations produced by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Despite their predictive capabilities being ever useful across industrial workspaces, the inherent uncertainty induced by the nature of the data is a huge mitigating factor to GNN performance. While aleatoric uncertainty is the result of noisy and incomplete stochastic data such as missing edges or over-smoothing, epistemic uncertainty arises from lack of knowledge about a system or model (e.g., a graph's topology or node feature representation), which can be reduced by gathering more data and information. In this paper, we propose an original new framework in which node-level epistemic uncertainty is modelled in a belief function (finite random set) formalism. The resulting Random-Set Graph Neural Networks have a belief-function head predicting a random set over the list of classes, from which both a precise probability prediction and a measure of epistemic uncertainty can be obtained. Extensive experiments on 9 different graph learning datasets, including real-world autonomous driving benchmarks as such Nuscene and ROAD, demonstrate RS-GNN's superior uncertainty quantification capabilities

Learning generative models in settings where the source and target distributions are only specified through unpaired samples is gaining in importance. Here, one frequently-used model are Schrödinger bridges (SB), which represent the most likely evolution between both endpoint distributions. To accelerate training, simulation-free SBs avoid the path simulation of the original SB models. However, learning simulation-free SBs requires paired data; a coupling of the source and target samples is obtained as the solution of the entropic optimal transport (OT) problem. As obtaining the optimal global coupling is infeasible in many practical cases, the entropic OT problem is iteratively solved on minibatches instead. Still, the repeated cost remains substantial and the locality can distort the global transport geometry. We propose quantized diffusion Schrödinger bridges (QDSB), which compute the endpoint coupling on anchor-quantized endpoint distributions and lift the resulting plan back to original data points through cell-wise sampling. We show that the regularized optimal coupling is stable w.r.t. anchor quantization, with an error controlled by the quality of the anchor approximation. In real-world experiments, QDSB matches the sample quality of existing baselines, requiring substantially less time. Code and data are available at github.com/mathefuchs/qdsb.

We show that the shape hypothesis on a likelihood ratio can be weakened while retaining endpoint criteria for the hazard-rate and usual stochastic orders. The endpoint reduction persists under unimodality of the likelihood ratio and under a sign-pattern condition on the likelihood ratio minus one, with at most two sign changes and a negative right tail. It also follows from a direct superlevel-set criterion involving the same expression, which is useful in particular for discontinuous likelihood ratios.

High-dimensional health and surveillance studies often involve many collinear predictors, multiple correlated outcomes of different types, and latent heterogeneity across observational units. We propose a Bayesian latent-cluster reduced-rank regression model for multivariate mixed outcomes. The model is a finite mixture of regression surfaces: each latent cluster has a cluster-specific mean shift and a low-rank coefficient matrix, yielding simultaneous clustering, dimension reduction, and component-wise interpretability. Response coordinates may be Gaussian, Bernoulli, or negative binomial. Multiplicative gamma process shrinkage adapts the effective rank within each cluster, and a WAIC-based criterion is used to tune the number of clusters and the nominal maximal rank. We establish posterior contraction for the identifiable component-specific regression surfaces and mean shifts, up to label permutation, and derive corresponding contraction for predictor-side singular subspaces. We also analyze the default label-invariant reporting pipeline based on the posterior similarity matrix: an eigenspace embedding followed by mean shift is shown to consistently recover the latent partition under an additional strong separation margin. Simulation experiments spanning all-Gaussian, all-Bernoulli, all-negative-binomial, and mixed Gaussian–Bernoulli–negative-binomial regimes show accurate recovery of the number of clusters and competitive clustering performance against $K$-means, mclust, PCA-based clustering, and a Gaussian reduced-rank mixture benchmark. We illustrate the method in three applications that show how the model separates individual-level utilization groups and produces interpretable county- and state-level cluster maps together with response-specific posterior predictive maps.

Efficient irrigation management is crucial to agriculture, forestry and horticulture, especially under climate change. Developments in novel sensors and Internet of Things technology provide an opportunity to carry out real-time monitoring of tree sap flux density, which, when coupled with advanced modelling techniques, enables online prediction of tree water-use suitable for irrigation planning. This manuscript proposes one such pipeline that integrates tree sap flow sensors, weather station sensors, and statistical models to predict tree daily water-use. In particular, an ensemble prediction approach based on additive models has been developed, using weather data as the main predictors of sap flux density. The method simultaneously considers the non-linear relationships and interactions between sap flux density and its environmental drivers, as well as the variability among individual trees over different growing seasons. Using field data collected on nine species of trees over the 2022, 2023 and 2024 growing seasons, this manuscript demonstrates the ability of the proposed ensemble prediction method in producing reliable daily water-use forecasts. The challenge of predicting tree water-use under climate stress, such as heatwaves, and the impact of tree sizes on prediction have also been discussed. Despite the complexity of the problem, the proposed method provides a general framework which can be used in a variety of settings, from commercial tree growers to conversation work. The model can be integrated into an online monitoring platform, assisting real-time decision making on irrigation management.