Papers

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) provide a mesh-free framework for solving PDE-constrained inverse problems, but their extension to Bayesian inversion still faces a fundamental difficulty: prior distributions are typically defined in the weight space of neural networks, whereas physically meaningful prior assumptions are more naturally expressed in function space. In this study, we introduce a unified framework, termed functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks (fpBPINN), to incorporate functional priors into Bayesian PINN-based inversion. We consider two complementary approaches. The first is a functional-prior-informed Bayesian PINN (FPI-BPINN), in which a neural network weight prior is learned to be consistent with a prescribed functional prior, and Bayesian inference is subsequently performed in weight space. The second is function-space particle-based variational inference for PINNs (fParVI-PINN), which performs Bayesian estimation using ParVI directly in function space. We also show that random Fourier features (RFF) play an important role in representing Gaussian functional priors with neural networks and in improving posterior approximation. We applied the proposed approaches to one-dimensional seismic traveltime tomography and two-dimensional Darcy-flow permeability inversion. These numerical experiments showed that both approaches accurately estimated posterior distributions, highlighting the significance of introducing physically interpretable functional priors into Bayesian PINN-based inverse problems. We also identified the contrasting advantages of FPI-BPINN and fParVI-PINN, namely flexibility and accuracy, respectively.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping higher education, yet many universities remain in early stages of adoption where AI innovation occurs informally and without institutional recognition. This paper presents a framework describing four levels of AI adoption in universities and illustrates these dynamics through a case study of AI-enabled curriculum initiatives in several units. We contend that the key institutional challenge is moving from isolated innovation to strategic integration, where universities redesign learning around AI-supported reasoning and align policies, workload models, and recognition systems to support educational transformation.

Modern operational systems face uncertainty even in routine conditions, where rare, bursty, and self-exciting events emerge from both exogenous covariates and endogenous event dynamics. Standard neural operators are typically trained as regression-style function-to-function models rather than conditional-intensity estimators, limiting their suitability for sparse event regimes. We introduce the Lorentzian Fourier Neural Operator (L-FNO), a stochastic neural operator that combines an FNO-style covariate path, Lorentzian spectral kernels for history-dependent excitation, and a likelihood-based training objective. We evaluate L-FNO on eight synthetic point-process benchmarks and three real-world datasets covering disease outbreak prediction and semiconductor fault or defect detection. L-FNO improves event likelihood, calibration diagnostics, and rare-event detection over regression- and likelihood-based neural operator baselines. These results show that structured spectral memory and likelihood-based learning provide effective inductive biases for neural operator models of stochastic event dynamics.

In this paper we consider the conditional stochastic optimization (CSO) problem. This consists of optimizing a function which can be written as the expectation of a function which is itself a function of a conditional expectation, i.e.~of the type $F(\xi) := \mathbb{E}\left[f\left(Z,\mathbb{E}[g(Z,X,\xi)|Z]\right)\right]$, where precise definitions are given in the main text. We address a particular class of CSO problems where the joint law of the random variables $X,Z$ cannot be exactly sampled; this case has been addressed in Goda & Kitade (2023). We introduce a method that combines Markovian stochastic approximation with unbiased approximation methods which allows one to find the optimizer of $F(\xi)$ in the context of interest. We illustrate our methodology on two examples associated to parameter estimation with model averaging and portfolio selection associated to high-dimensional full factor multivariate stochastic volatility models.

This work studies decentralized novelty detection with global false discovery rate (FDR) control across heterogeneous composite null distributions, without sharing the raw data due to privacy and bandwidth considerations. We propose a framework based on the exchange of quantized surrogate models, allowing independent agents to share low-precision representations of locally learned non-conformity score functions. We prove that evaluating data against these quantized composite scores preserves conditional exchangeability, providing rigorous finite-sample guarantees for global FDR control. Empirical studies on synthetic datasets confirm our theoretical results, demonstrating that the proposed approach maintains competitive statistical power while drastically reducing the communication cost.

In grokking, a model first fits the training data while test accuracy remains low, and only later begins to generalize. We ask whether this transition can be localized from observed training trajectories before the test accuracy rises, and formulate grokking transition localization as a diagnostic problem with an explicit threshold/FPR/lead-time trade-off. Task-dependent observables are summarized as empirical distributions, mapped to Wasserstein/quantile coordinates, and analyzed by Hankel dynamic mode decomposition (DMD); the resulting reconstruction residual, together with spectrum and effective rank, forms the diagnostic output. On held-out modular-addition Transformer runs, the residual achieves AUROC \(\approx \) 0.93 for grokking-vs-non-grokking discrimination at the run level; under a fixed sustained-threshold operating rule, true-positive alarms can precede onset, with lead time reported jointly with false-alarm rate and uncertainty intervals. Perturbation experiments show that, in the tested \(wd=1\) pool, high-residual windows exhibit about \(3\times\) larger short-horizon perturbation deviation than low-residual windows. In a same-data norm-window control, perturbation sensitivity aligns with the residual ordering rather than total-parameter-norm ordering, suggesting that the residual is not merely a total-norm proxy at the window level in the studied \(wd=1\) dynamics. Norm signals remain strong run-level regime indicators, and log-probability performs best among the observables tested under the current protocol. We position the residual as a window-level monitoring and localization signal in the studied modular-arithmetic Transformer settings, not a universal early-warning predictor or an intervention rule.

We consider the fluctuations of the free energy in generalized Sherrington-Kirkpatrick models and the log likelihood ratio of spiked Wigner models in the high temperature/subcritical regime. We prove that the limiting laws of the fluctuations are Gaussian under suitable assumptions, and the result is universal in the sense that it does not depend on the distribution of the disorder or the prior except that the means and the variances of the limiting laws depend on a few parameters of the model. The proof is based on the multigraph expansion that provides a unified approach to analyze both models.

Evaluation of large language models (LLMs) is increasingly critical, yet standard benchmarking methods rely on average accuracy, overlooking both the inherent stochasticity of LLM outputs and the heterogeneity of benchmark items. Item Response Theory (IRT) offers a principled framework for modeling latent model abilities and item characteristics, but conventional methods are computationally expensive and numerically unstable, limiting large-scale implementations. To address these challenges, we propose an interpretable and scalable framework for LLM evaluation based on the majorization-minimization principle. Our approach reformulates the problem as a sequence of constrained matrix factorization subproblems, enabling stable and efficient parameter estimation with theoretical guarantees for identifiability and convergence. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including MATH-500 and six Open LLM Leaderboard benchmarks, demonstrate that our method achieves superior scalability and interpretability. It delivers orders-of-magnitude speedups over competing methods while maintaining comparable or even higher estimation accuracy. Our results align with established scaling laws and offer insights into item difficulty and discrimination, informing more principled benchmark design.

Instrumental-variable (IV) regression enables causal estimation under endogeneity, but modern IV problems often involve nonlinear structural effects and high-dimensional covariates. Existing methods typically operate in observed or generic learned feature spaces, and they often yield point estimates without uncertainty quantification. We introduce BGM-IV, a Bayesian generative modeling approach that performs nonlinear IV regression through posterior inference in a causally structured latent space. BGM-IV separates covariate variation by the role in the treatment and outcome mechanism, and accounts for endogeneity through an IV-integrated pseudo-likelihood that averages over instrument-induced treatment variation. The resulting model provides both structural-function estimates and predictive intervals for outcomes under intervention. Across various benchmark datasets, BGM-IV outperforms existing nonlinear IV methods overall, with significant gains in high-dimensional settings, while achieving near-nominal predictive coverage. These results highlight structured latent generative modeling as a flexible approach to uncertainty-aware IV inference with rich covariates. The code of BGM-IV is available at https://github.com/liuq-lab/BGM-IV.

A major bottleneck in characterizing the failure modes of generative AI systems is the cost and time of annotation and evaluation. Consequently, adaptive testing paradigms have gained popularity, where one opportunistically decides which cases and how many to annotate based on past results. While this framework is highly practical, its extreme flexibility makes it difficult to draw statistically rigorous conclusions, as it violates classical assumptions: the number of observations is typically limited (often 10 to 50 cases) and decisions regarding sampling and stopping are made in the midst of data collection rather than based a pre-specified rule. To characterize what statistical inferences can be drawn from highly adaptive audits, we introduce a hypothesis testing framework from two "dueling" perspectives: (i) the model's null that asserts there is no failure mode with performance below a target threshold versus (ii) the auditor's null that asserts they have a sampling strategy that will uncover a failure mode. Leveraging Safe Anytime-Valid Inference (SAVI), we formalize the auditor as conducting "testing by betting," which translates into simultaneous e-processes for testing the dueling null hypotheses. Furthermore, if the auditor is sufficiently powerful, we prove that these two hypotheses are asymptotically inverses of each other, in that passage of such an audit certifies the AI system as being globally robust. Empirically, we demonstrate that our proposed testing procedures maintain anytime-valid Type-I error control, outperform pre-specified testing methods, and can reach statistically rigorous conclusions sometimes with as few as 20 observations.

Causal queries are often only partially identifiable from observational data, and experiments that could tighten the resulting bounds are typically costly. We study the problem of selecting, prior to observing experimental outcomes, a cost-constrained subset of experiments that maximally tightens bounds on a target query. We formalize this as the max-potency problem, where epistemic potency measures the worst-case reduction in bound width guaranteed by an experiment, and show that this problem is NP-hard via a reduction from 0-1 knapsack. Building on the polynomial-programming framework of Duarte et al. (2023), we give a general procedure for evaluating epistemic potency in discrete settings. To control the super-exponential search space, we introduce two graphical pruning criteria that depend only on the causal graph and the query: a novel path-interception rule that exploits district structure to certify zero potency in linear time, and an identifiability check based on the ID algorithm. On Erdos-Renyi random graphs and 11 bnlearn benchmark networks, the two criteria together prune 50-88% of candidate experiments on average without solving a single polynomial program. For the general subset search, we show that ID-pruned experiments are combinatorially inert, yielding a super-exponential reduction in the number of subsets evaluated. We close with an end-to-end demonstration on observational NHANES data, selecting optimal experiments for estimating the effect of physical activity on diabetes.

AI agents are increasingly deployed in multi-task settings, where the task to perform is specified at test time, and the agent must generalize to unseen tasks. A major concern in such settings is safety: often, an agent must not only execute unseen tasks, but do so while avoiding risks and handling ones that materialize. Empirical evidence suggests that even when the ability to execute generalizes to unseen tasks, the ability to do so safely frequently does not. This paper provides theory and experiments indicating that failures of agentic safety to generalize across tasks are not merely due to limitations of training methods, but can also reflect an inherent property of safety itself: the relationship between a task and its safe execution is more complex than the relationship between a task and its execution alone. Theoretically, we analyze linear-quadratic control with $H_{\infty}$-robustness, and prove that in many cases, the mapping from task specification to an optimal controller has higher Lipschitz constant with safety requirements than without, yielding a Lipschitz bound of independent interest. Empirically, we demonstrate our conclusions in simulated quadcopter navigation with a neural network agent and in CRM with an LLM agent, showing that imitating safe and unsafe teachers is similarly straightforward on tasks seen in training, yet generalizing across tasks is considerably more difficult with the safe teacher. Our findings suggest that current efforts to enhance agentic safety may be insufficient, and point to a need for fundamentally different approaches.

K-means clustering is widely used in psychological and psychometric research to identify profiles, subgroups, and potential typologies, yet its classical formulation does not test whether such groups exist as latent psychological categories. Instead, K-means partitions multidimensional space into regions around centroids, favoring compact, approximately spherical clusters defined by geometric distance. In this paper, we examine this limitation through a sequence of controlled simulated datasets. We then extend the analysis to the SMARVUS dataset, a large international psychometric dataset comprising survey responses from university students across 35 countries, to evaluate whether similar geometric partitioning patterns emerge in empirical psychological data. By contrasting simulated and empirical data, this paper argues that K-means can produce stable and visually coherent clustering solutions even in continuous Gaussian latent spaces without true subgroup structure.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) to human preferences typically relies on aggregating pooled feedback into a single reward model. However, this standard approach assumes that all labelers share the same underlying preferences, ignoring the fact that real-world labelers are highly heterogeneous and usually anonymous. Consequently, relying solely on binary choice data fundamentally distorts the learned policy, making the true population-average preference unidentifiable. To overcome this critical limitation, we demonstrate that augmenting preference datasets with a simple, secondary signal – the user's response time – can restore the identifiability of the population's average preference. By modeling each decision as a Drift-Diffusion Model (DDM), we introduce a novel, consistent estimator of heterogeneous preferences that successfully corrects the distortions of standard choice-only labels. We prove that our estimator asymptotically converges to the true average preference even in extreme cases where each anonymous labeler contributes only a single choice. Empirically, across both synthetic and real-world datasets, our method consistently outperforms standard baselines that otherwise fail and plateau at a bias floor. Because response times are essentially free to record and require zero user tracking or identification, our results bring promises and open up new opportunities for future data-collection pipelines to improve the social benefit without requiring user-level identifiers or repeated elicitations.

Causal abstraction offers a principled framework for mechanistic interpretability, aligning a high-level causal model with low-level neural computation through interchange intervention analysis. Finding such an alignment, however, often requires fitting and evaluating separate learned mappings across many candidate neural locations. We introduce PLOT, a gradient-free approach for joint correspondence discovery via a global matching of intervention effects. PLOT represents abstract and neural interventions by geometric signatures of their effects on the shared task output and fits an optimal transport coupling between the two collections. The coupling can be calibrated directly into an executable intervention handle or used progressively to select coarse parent sites for finer localization, reducing the cost of searching broad collections of neural sites. Experiments on hierarchical equality, binary addition, and multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) demonstrate fast and accurate direct handles without learning intervention rotations and show that progressive localization can improve accuracy under intervention-size constraints while reducing computational cost. PLOT can also guide gradient-based subspace learning, with PLOT-guided distributed alignment search (DAS) attaining accuracy comparable to full DAS at approximately $3.6\times$ and $20\times$ lower serial runtime on binary addition and MCQA, respectively. PLOT thus separates the search for candidate correspondences from optional subspace learning and provides a common framework for constructing and testing neural intervention handles for a given causal model.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become a cornerstone technique for post-training large language models. While most existing approaches rely on the reverse KL-regularization, recent empirical studies have begun exploring alternative divergences (e.g., forward KL, chi-squared) as regularizers in RLHF. However, a unified theoretical understanding of general $f$-divergence regularization remains under-explored. To fill this gap, this work develops a comprehensive theoretical framework for online RLHF with a general $f$-divergence regularized objective. Rather than treating each possible divergence function individually, we adopt a holistic perspective across the entire function class and propose two algorithms based on distinct sampling principles. The first extends the classical optimism principle with a carefully designed exploration bonus, while the second introduces a new method that exploits the sensitivity of the optimal policy to reward perturbations under $f$-divergence regularization. Theoretical analysis shows that $O(\log T)$ regret and $O(1/T)$ sub-optimality gap are achievable, establishing provable efficiency of both algorithms and, to the best of our knowledge, the first performance bounds for online RLHF under general $f$-divergence regularization.

Many ranking and agent trace datasets are recorded as linear orders even though their latent structure is only partially ordered. This is especially common in agent and workflow traces, where observed order may reflect arbitrary linearization rather than true prerequisites. We introduce a differentiable relaxation for latent partial-order inference from such traces. Starting from a hard frontier-constrained model of noisy linear extensions, we replace discontinuous product-order precedence and binary frontier feasibility with smooth surrogates, yielding a continuous posterior that preserves closure-level partial-order semantics and supports gradient-based MCMC and variational inference. We prove soft transitivity, sharp-limit frontier recovery, and convergence to the hard likelihood. Experiments on synthetic data, records of social dominance relations, and cloud-agent traces show close posterior fidelity to hard MCMC on small instances and improved runtime–accuracy trade-offs on larger problems.

This paper presents a parametric solution to piecewise linear regression through the Adaptive Block Gradient Descent (ABGD) algorithm. The heart of the method is the parametrization of piecewise linear functions as the difference of max-affine (DoMA) functions. A non-asymptotic local convergence analysis for ABGD is provided under sub-Gaussian covariate and noise distributions. To initialize ABGD, we adapt a prior algorithm originally developed for the simpler setting of max-affine functions. When suitably initialized, ABGD converges linearly to an $\epsilon$-accurate estimate given $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d\max(\sigma_z/\epsilon,1)^2)$ observations where $\sigma_z^2$ denotes the noise variance. This implies exact recovery given $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d)$ samples in the noiseless case. Also, such a rate is shown to be minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors. Synthetic numerical results corroborate the theoretical guarantees for ABGD. We also observe competitive performance compared to the state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets.

LLM-as-a-Judge evaluation has become a standard tool for assessing base model performance. However, characterizing performance via the naive estimator, i.e., raw judge outputs, is systematically biased. Recent work has proposed estimators to correct this bias, but their reliability depends critically on judge quality and, for model comparisons, on calibration stability. Sharing calibration across compared models is practically attractive but can introduce severe bias, including cases where the comparison estimate points in the wrong direction with high apparent confidence. We study these failure modes through analytical results, simulations over judge quality ($J$) and cross-model calibration instability ($\Delta J$), and a real-data MMLU-Pro case study with sign reversal. We propose $J$ and $\Delta J$ as diagnostics for when corrected estimates, especially shared-calibration comparisons, are likely unreliable, and provide reporting guidance for LaaJ evaluation.

The Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) is a cornerstone statistic for nonparametric two-sample testing, but its test power is dictated entirely by the chosen kernel. Because any fixed kernel inherently fails to distinguish certain distributions, the kernel must be dynamically optimized. However, data-driven optimization violates the foundational i.i.d. assumption, forcing a strict trade-off in existing frameworks. Ratio criteria ignore this dependence, inducing overfitting and variance collapse on rich kernel classes. Conversely, aggregation methods bypass the dependence using finite grids, but this strategy cannot scale to continuous search spaces like deep kernels. To break this dichotomy, we establish data-driven kernel selection as a model selection problem. We propose Complexity-Penalized MMD (CP-MMD), a criterion derived by applying the two-sample uniform concentration inequality of preceding works to the post-optimization MMD problem. The resulting penalty bounds the empirical MMD by the complexity of the kernel search space, mathematically absorbing the cost of optimization, so that CP-MMD enables direct, grid-free maximization over continuous parametric classes, including scalar bandwidths, polynomial feature bandwidths, and deep network parameters. By formally accounting for optimization complexity, we prove that CP-MMD maximizes true test power while ensuring unconditional Type-I validity. Consequently, CP-MMD enables grid-free kernel selection across linear, polynomial-feature, and deep regimes, matching or exceeding state-of-the-art test power.

Probabilistic conditioning is concerned with the identification of a distribution of a random variable $X$ given a random variable $Y$. It is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications where modeling uncertainty is key. This problem has traditionally been addressed in machine learning by directly learning the conditional distribution of a fixed joint distribution. This paper introduces a novel perspective: we propose to solve the conditioning problem by identifying a single operator that maps any joint density to its conditional, thus amortizing over joint-conditional pairs. We establish that the conditioning operator can be approximated to arbitrary accuracy by neural operators. Our proof relies on new results establishing continuity of the conditioning operator over suitable classes of densities. Finally, we learn the conditioning map for a class of Gaussian mixtures using neural operators, illustrating the promise of our framework. This work provides the theoretical underpinnings for general-purpose, amortized methods for probabilistic conditioning, such as foundation models for Bayesian inference.

We consider the problem of estimating the underlying edge probabilities of a time-varying network observed at multiple time points. The probability structure is represented by a time-varying graphon that satisfies temporal Hölder smoothness and piecewise Lipschitz conditions in the latent variables. We propose a multi-stage smoothing estimator that first applies temporal local smoothing to each edge and then performs node-domain smoothing using a data-driven neighborhood construction adapted from the method. An additional temporal smoothing step is introduced as an optional refinement when uniform accuracy over the entire time domain is required. Simulation studies demonstrate the benefits of combining temporal and node-domain smoothing under different generative models. We also apply the method to a real time-varying network dataset and show that it captures both smooth temporal evolution and structural patterns in the connectivity.

We study posterior contraction rates for mixing measures in homoscedastic location-scale mixture models with infinitely many components. While posterior convergence at the level of densities is well understood, ensuring convergence of the latent mixing measure is more challenging and has remained an open problem in settings where both location and scale parameters are unknown. We address this by deriving novel lower-bounds that connect the $L^1$ distance between mixture densities to discrepancies, based on the Wasserstein distances and the operator norm, between the underlying mixing measures and scale matrices. Our approach combines the dual formulation of the $W_1$ distance with functional-analytic approximation techniques. This leads to general inequalities, whose strength is determined (i) by the smoothness of the mixture kernel via the rate of decay of its characteristic function, and (ii) by a key lower-bound on the $L^1$ metric involving the operator norm discrepancy between scale parameters. Moreover, a novel PDE inversion condition yields a sharper inequality for important ordinary-smooth cases. We specialize these bounds to popular mixtures based on multivariate Gaussian, Cauchy, and Laplace kernels. As a consequence, we obtain first-of-their-kind contraction rates in the context of Dirichlet process mixtures with an unknown scale parameter shared across components. As a byproduct of our inequalities, we can distinguish the convergence behavior of the location mixing measure from that of the scale parameter across a range of kernel choices, leading to nuanced insights into their respective rates.

This paper studies the propagation of finite-sample uncertainty under nonlinear transformations commonly used in statistical decision systems. In particular, we consider process capability indices, which are widely used in manufacturing practice but are estimated from finite samples, rendering the resulting approval decisions inherently uncertain. We show that such uncertainty cannot be fully explained by estimator variability alone, but is substantially influenced by a nonlinear amplification mechanism through which capability uncertainty is transformed into defect-risk metrics. While capability estimators vary approximately linearly with process dispersion, defect probabilities depend on tail curvature, causing small estimation errors to be disproportionately amplified in measures such as defect probability and parts-per-million (PPM) rates. Consequently, capability assessments that appear stable in index space may exhibit substantial variability in defect-risk space, particularly near decision thresholds. This insight provides a unified explanation of finite-sample decision instability, motivates reliability-aware decision formulations, and links sample-size requirements directly to decision reliability. Monte Carlo simulations and industrial data analyses validate the proposed mechanism and demonstrate its practical implications, including the impact of distributional assumptions on defect-risk estimation.

We study the spectral properties of sample covariance matrices constructed from pooled sequence representations, where token embeddings are drawn from a fixed two-class Gaussian mixture table and pooled via (fixed) attention weights. Working in the high-dimensional regime $d,V,N\to\infty$ with $d/V\to\delta$ and $d/N\to\gamma$, we derive exact characterizations of the limiting eigenvalue distribution, outlier eigenvalues, and eigenvector alignment with the hidden signal. The bulk spectrum follows a non-Marchenko–Pastur law given by the free multiplicative convolution $\kappa(MP_\delta\boxtimes MP_\gamma)$, reflecting the finite vocabulary structure. Signal recovery undergoes two successive BBP-type phase transitions characterized by the scalars: $\delta,\gamma,\alpha=w^{\top} R w$ and $\kappa=\|w\|^2$, where $w$ denotes the attention pooling weights and $R$ the positional correlation matrix. An aftermath of our analysis demonstrates that the optimal attention weights maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio $\alpha/\kappa$ are given by the (normalized) top eigenvector of $R$, and we show (as a particular case of our analysis) that parameter-free causal self-attention with $\tau/d$ score scaling yields deterministic harmonic weights that improve signal recovery over mean pooling whenever early tokens carry more signal. Extensive simulations confirm sharp agreement between theory and finite-dimensional experiments.

Cohen et al. (arXiv:2207.14484) observed that adaptive gradient methods such as Adam operate at the edge of stability. While there has been significant work on continuous-time modeling of gradient descent at the edge of stability, extending these models to momentum methods remains underdeveloped. In the gradient descent setting, Regis et al. (arXiv:2602.01480) introduced rod flow, which models consecutive iterates as an extended one-dimensional object – a "rod." Here we extend rod flow to Adam by working in the joint phase space of parameters and first moment $(w, m)$ and treating the second moment $\nu$ as a smooth auxiliary variable. We also develop rod flows for heavy ball momentum, Nesterov momentum, and scalar and per-component versions of RMSProp, Adam, and NAdam. For all eight optimizers, we empirically evaluate rod flow on representative machine learning architectures, where it tracks the discrete iterates through the edge-of-stability regime significantly more accurately than the corresponding stable flow.

Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional difficulty is summarizing the estimated evolving dependence structure for downstream decision-making tasks. We propose a Bayesian approach based on a low-rank factor representation, with latent states evolving under a dynamic shrinkage prior and observation errors following a multivariate factor stochastic volatility model. This specification allows locally adaptive regularization of the estimated correlation structure over time and informative uncertainty quantification. We establish, to our knowledge, a first-of-its-kind posterior contraction result for dynamically regularized Bayesian models, showing contraction around the true model parameters at an explicit rate under averaged Hellinger distance. To summarize the estimated correlation matrices, we build on the information-theoretic concept of total correlation to obtain a scalar measure of cross-sectional dependence. Simulation studies show improved accuracy and responsiveness relative to competing methods in a range of challenging scenarios. We then apply our method to monitoring the correlation evolution of equity portfolios during periods of financial market stress.

As learning systems increasingly shape everyday decisions, Algorithmic Collective Action (ACA), i.e., users coordinating changes to shared data to steer model behavior, offers a complement to regulator-side policy and corporate model design. Real-world collective actions have traditionally been decentralized and fragmented into multiple collectives, despite sharing overarching objectives, with each collective differing in size, strategy, and actionable goals. However, most of the ACA literature focuses on single collective settings. To address this, we propose the first comprehensive statistical framework for ACA with multiple collectives acting on the same system. In particular, we focus on collective action in classification, studying how multiple collectives can influence a classifier's behavior. We provide quantitative statistical bounds on the success of the collectives, considering the role and the interplay of the collectives' sizes and the alignment of their goals. We make such bounds computable by each collective with only partial knowledge of other collectives' sizes and strategies. Finally, we numerically illustrate our framework on simulations inspired by interventions for climate adaptation in smart cities, demonstrating the usefulness of our bounds.

Social contact matrices are essential tools in infectious disease epidemiology as they quantify close-range human contact patterns which directly drive the transmission of airborne infectious diseases. In this work we propose a Bayesian modeling framework for inferring generalized contact matrices which stratify contact matrices beyond contemporary age dimensions. The model is designed to satisfy fundamental structural assumptions of contacts while leveraging tensor structures and smoothing constraints to make high-dimensional matrix estimation computationally feasible and statistically stable. We discover a link between multi-dimensional matrix stratification subject to structural constraints with the theory of contingency tables. This enables us to approach a challenging missing-data problem commonly encountered in real-world analysis where feature information on the contacts is unobserved. We benchmark the framework against existing methods through simulation studies and illustrate the framework's practical utility through two real-world datasets: BICS (United States) and COVIMOD (Germany). Our models are implemented in an open-source Python package to facilitate adoption in the wider scientific community.

Covariate adjustment is a general method for improving precision when estimating treatment effects in randomized trials and is recommended by the FDA in its 2023 guidance when baseline variables are prognostic for the primary outcome. We focus on a method highlighted in that guidance called “standardization" (or “g-computation") for estimating the marginal treatment effect. We address the question of how to reliably estimate variance for binary outcomes when marginal outcome probabilities are close to 0 or 1. We propose an influence function-based leave-one-out cross-validated (IF-LOO) variance estimator for the standardized difference-in-means average treatment effect. Through simulation studies, we show that this estimator provides appropriate type-I error control and performs reliably in challenging settings where existing methods can yield inflated type-I error or fail entirely, such as when outcome events are rare or sample sizes are small. In addition to having desirable statistical properties, we derive a closed-form expression for the proposed estimator, enabling straightforward and reliable implementation by study statisticians. The robust finite-sample performance and ease of implementation suggest the IF-LOO variance estimator is a prudent default choice for standardization in clinical trials.