Quantitative Methods
Disease-level drug approval forecasting from trial-agnostic public data
Samir Townsley, Pagkratios Tagkopoulos and Ilias Tagkopoulos
Drug development is an expensive and lengthy process requiring developers to select drugs for human trials and diseases to target. Computational tools that can estimate before testing which drug-disease candidates are most likely to reach FDA approval could reduce development time and costs through early program advancement and disease prioritization. Yet existing approaches predict outcomes at a single level or stage or do not distinguish between disease outcomes for the same drug. We ask (1) whether FDA approval can be forecast for a drug-disease pair using only pre-clinical trial information, and (2) whether these forecasts can help prioritize diseases for the same drug. We built a cohort of 14,134 drug-disease pairs by reconstructing programs from ClinicalTrials.gov, extracting disease-level approvals from FDA label documentation, and enriching each pair with molecular, disease, ADMET, target, and pathway features. We divided the cohort into pre- and post-2019 programs and trained a classifier on pre-2019 data to predict FDA approval. On the post-2019 cohort (2,637 programs), the model would have prioritized a program that ultimately gained approval over one that did not approximately three out of four times. For drugs tested across multiple diseases, selecting the model's highest-ranked disease would have identified an ultimately approved disease 61.3% of the time, compared with 40.7% under random selection. These results show that public pre-trial information contains signal for forecasting FDA approval at the drug-disease level and can help prioritize diseases for the same drug. We provide a public web tool for SMILES- and ICD-10-based drug-disease approval forecasting.
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Biomolecules
Ca$^{2+}$-tunable mechanics and recoil in reconstituted Tcb2 networks
Xiangting Lei, K. R. Prathyusha, Carlos Floyd et al. (+2 more)
Tetrahymena calcium-binding
protein (Tcb2) forms Ca$^{2+}$-responsive networks that exhibit contractile behavior, yet how Ca$^{2+}$ concentration controls their local mechanical response remains poorly understood. Here, we use optical tweezers to perform active microrheology on reconstituted Tcb2 networks inside a microfluidic device that enables precise control of Ca$^{2+}$ concentration, allowing systematic tuning of network structure and mechanics. We find that increasing Ca$^{2+}$ from 1 to 100~mM enhances the effective stiffness by nearly two orders of magnitude, from $\sim$1$\times$10$^{-3}$ to $\sim$7$\times$10$^{-2}$~pN/nm, corresponding to a transition from a viscosity-dominated to a more elastic and mechanically robust network. Recoil assays further reveal rapid release of stored elastic energy following deformation. After two orthogonal pulls, the bead recoils along the diagonal rather than retracing the loading path, indicating that stresses from different directions combine to produce a resultant restoring response. These results establish Tcb2 networks as a minimal, tunable system for probing chemomechanical coupling and viscoelasticity in Ca$^{2+}$-regulated
protein networks.
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All authors Xiangting Lei, K. R. Prathyusha, Carlos Floyd, Jerry Honts, Saad Bhamla
Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from cs.NE
How much of fly walking is written in the wiring?
Isabel Guan, Yuntian Zhao, Dingyuan Zhang et al. (+2 more)
Connectome models of the fly nerve cord generate walking-like motor rhythms, but oscillation alone does not show that the specific wiring matters. Here we provide, to our knowledge, the first test of which features of motor output depend on the specific wiring. We simulated the leg motor systems of two independent Drosophila connectomes, with synapse counts as fixed weights and glutamatergic synapses treated as inhibitory, and compared each with six families of rewired networks that preserve progressively more of its structure, using pre-registered criteria. We find that rhythm is generic but antagonist coordination is not: many rewired networks were more rhythmic than the real ones, yet the real wiring coordinated antagonistic motor pools more strongly than every rewired network, most of all at the thorax–coxa joint. We trace this specificity to how premotor input is allocated between antagonistic pools. Both connectomes carry Sherrington's reciprocal innervation—
neurons that excite one pool inhibit its antagonist—and no rewired network does. Reassigning premotor inputs between the pools abolished coordination even when motor
neurons' typical input strength changed little (all pre-registered criteria met in one connectome; same direction in the other). Coordination, not rhythm, therefore reveals whether a connectome model's wiring matters.
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All authors Isabel Guan, Yuntian Zhao, Dingyuan Zhang, Shipeng Lyu, I-Ming Chen
Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from cs.RO
TERRA: Terrain-Aware Reconstruction, Retargeting and Control for Musculoskeletal Locomotion
Merkourios Simos, Chengkun Li, Bianca Ziliotto et al. (+1 more)
Recent advances in musculoskeletal modeling and reinforcement learning have enabled muscle-actuated
agents to reproduce increasingly complex human motions. Yet these capabilities remain largely confined to flat ground, in part because motion
datasets rarely include aligned terrain geometry and because retargeting terrain interactions to complex musculoskeletal bodies is challenging. We present TERRA, an end-to-end pipeline for terrain-aware retargeting and control of musculoskeletal locomotion. From kinematic trajectories alone, TERRA combines terrain priors, estimated contacts, and negative free-space evidence to recover task-relevant support geometry. TERRA further considers anatomical, tendon-continuity, and contact constraints during retargeting. Using the resulting motion-terrain pairs from five
datasets, we successfully train a single muscle-actuated control policy on 9.4 hours of diverse locomotion. Across reconstruction, retargeting, and held-out tracking
benchmarks, TERRA improves terrain accuracy, sharply reduces anatomical and interaction violations, and achieves the highest observed completion rate over supported terrain families. Overall, TERRA provides a practical route from scene-less motion data to muscle-actuated locomotion over diverse non-flat terrain. Project website: https://cnai.epfl.ch/terra/
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All authors Merkourios Simos, Chengkun Li, Bianca Ziliotto, Alexander Mathis
Genomics
Fragment Path Complex Networks for Viral Genome Classification
Alice Wachira, Xiang Liu and Guo-Wei Wei
Accurate classification of viral families is essential to understanding genomic diversity, but rapid
evolution and heterogeneous genome structure complicate reliable assignment. Newly discovered viruses, particularly those from underrepresented ecosystems, expand the known diversity of viral genomes. This growing diversity poses challenges for classification methods that rely on similarity to existing references. We present Fragment Path Complex Networks (FPCN), a framework that represents viral genomes as sequences of ordered fragments at various scales. FPCN captures contextual sequence information within each fragment and uses path complexes to model complex relationships between neighboring fragments. We evaluated FPCN on well-established NCBI
benchmarks, and FPCN achieved higher classification accuracy than competing methods. Further evaluations on newly released
datasets revealed FPCN's ability to generalize to genomes that were not presented in the training. Together, these results position FPCN as an effective tool for classifying viral genomes within known families across
benchmark datasets and newly released genomes.
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Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from cs.LG
Autoregressive Frontier Expansion: Growing Trees with Graph Machine Learning
Umer Gupta, Saku Peltonen and Martin Ritzert
Tree-like branching structures are common in nature, from botanical trees to
neurons, blood vessels and respiratory trees. Their branching shape often reflects function, making structural modelling central to understanding how these systems work. Because acquiring real-world 3D data is often expensive or infeasible, realistic generative models are valuable for simulation and data augmentation. Existing morphology-specific models either constrain how
topology is generated or rely on hand-tuned, mechanistic procedures. Generic 3D graph generators, by contrast, do not exploit or enforce the structure of trees. We propose Autoregressive Frontier Expansion, a generative framework that constructs trees through an iterative expansion process, simulating the biological growth of real trees. At each step, a flow-matching model parameterised by an SO(2)-equivariant GNN expands the frontier by predicting whether each active branch bifurcates or terminates. We evaluate our method on cortical
neurons and botanical trees in unconditional, class-conditioned, and morphology-guided generation. Across both domains, the generated morphologies agree closely with the reference distributions and, in conditional experiments, with the specified targets.
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Neurons and Cognition
Does Global Neuronal Workspace Theory Explain Phenomenal Consciousness? The Motivated Emotional Mind Challenge
Wiesław L. Galus and Janusz A. Starzyk
Global Neuronal Workspace Theory (GNWT) is one of the most extensively developed empirical research programmes on access consciousness. By contrast, the Motivated Emotional Mind (MEM) model proposes an embodied, semi-hierarchical associative
memory in which representational selection, action, recurrent reconstruction of modality-specific fields, interoception, and valence form a single functional cycle. This article assesses whether MEM mechanisms can reproduce the functions explained by GNWT and whether they yield additional hypotheses concerning phenomenal quality. We first reconstruct the origins, mechanistic core, strengths, and limitations of GNWT, and then present the origins of MEM, the architecture of semblions, and the FFS-RP cycle. In the comparative analysis, we distinguish functional similarity from mechanistic identity and empirical equivalence. We examine 25 publications: twelve canonical studies of GNWT or critiques thereof, and thirteen studies of perception, interoception, and affect. For each study, we juxtapose the GNWT interpretation with a possible MEM reinterpretation. The findings indicate that most classical effects - including threshold dynamics, maintenance, recurrence, long-range connectivity, and flexible use of information - are compatible with both theories. This compatibility weakens the claim that the GNWT interpretation is exclusive, but does not yet provide theory-specific support for MEM. MEM advances a broader hypothesis integrating access, modality-specific reconstruction, bodily state, affect, and action; its potential explanatory advantage nevertheless remains a hypothesis requiring preregistered quantitative tests. We propose a series of interventions designed to dissociate sensory re-entry, global availability, report, and interoceptive valuation.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG
RetroGEF: Dynamic Graph Edit Flow for Single-Step Retrosynthesis
Xiaozhuang Song, Xuemin Chen, Xinjian Zhao et al. (+2 more)
Retrosynthesis enables the discovery of viable synthetic routes to target molecules. It plays a central role in modern drug discovery and materials design. Retrosynthesis involves molecular graph transformations that can change both connectivity and graph size. These transformations may introduce reactant components absent from the target while revising the product-derived structure. To model these transformations, we propose RetroGEF, a flow-based generative model for single-step retrosynthesis. Starting from the target molecule, it constructs possible reactants by adding atoms and changing bonds in the molecular graph. RetroGEF models molecular transformations and changes in graph size within the same generative process, rather than relying on a fixed-size graph canvas. It learns this process directly from product–reactant pairs without requiring a prescribed edit order. Experiments on representative retrosynthesis
benchmarks demonstrate that RetroGEF achieves state-of-the-art performance.
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All authors Xiaozhuang Song, Xuemin Chen, Xinjian Zhao, Yaoyao Xu, Tianshu Yu
Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from cs.RO
Embodiment-aware control by inference over the operator: a simulation study
Sara Falcone
Teleoperation systems are tuned for channel fidelity, while whether the operator experiences the device as part of the body, the Sense of Embodiment (SoE), is measured only afterwards, by questionnaire. Predictive-processing accounts suggest controlling devices to reduce the mismatch between the operator's predictions and the returned feedback, but those predictions are unobservable, and an objective that only penalizes mismatch is minimized by removing feedback. We formulate an embodiment-aware controller, the Universal Embodiment Engine (UEE), that infers the operator's embodiment and visuo-proprioceptive cue weighting from implicit gaze and pupil signals and task outcome, and chooses bounded device settings under explicit preferences, cast as a discrete Active Inference
agent. In simulations with 300 heterogeneous synthetic operators, the UEE found the suitable setting within half a minute for most operators, before identifying their exact type, and came close to an oracle in the second half of the session (embodiment 1.68 against 0.73 for the best fixed setting, on a 0-2 scale). Adapting without reading the operator did no better than fixed control, and model-free bandits did worse, whereas an expected-utility controller with the same inference did exactly as well: the benefit comes from
Bayesian inference over the operator with explicit preferences, not from the information-seeking term of Active Inference. A naive prediction-error minimizer withheld feedback, as its objective implies, and lost task success (0.74 vs 0.90). The benefit shrank but persisted for operators outside the controller's model family, grew with the variety of the population, and vanished when the controller trusted an uninformative signal or when cue weighting changed mid-session without being modeled. These failures show what studies with people must establish first: calibrated signals and a model of change.
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Tissues and Organs · Cross-listed from physics.flu-dyn
Catheter-modulated transient solute dispersion in micropolar annular flow with a retentive and absorptive arterial wall
Sohel Ahmed, Nanda Poddar, Kajal Kumar Mondal et al. (+1 more)
We study transient solute dispersion in pressure-driven micropolar flow through a concentric annulus representing a catheterized artery. The catheter is impermeable to solute, whereas the arterial wall combines irreversible removal with reversible surface retention. The exact steady micropolar velocity field is coupled to the Gill-Sankarasubramanian generalized-dispersion framework; the resulting bulk-surface hierarchy is advanced with Rannacher-damped Crank-Nicolson time stepping to determine $K_0(t)$, $K_1(t)$ and $K_2(t)$. The exchange coefficient is independent of the micropolar parameters and satisfies $-K_0(0^+)=2(\beta+\theta Da)/(1-\lambda^2)$, whereas $K_2-Pe^{-2}\sim\sigma_v^2t$ initially, so the leading short-time dispersion is hydrodynamic and independent of wall kinetics. In the weak-reaction regime, micropolarity modifies convection approximately linearly and shear dispersion quadratically through the velocity-amplitude factor. A narrow-gap analysis with $\varepsilon=1-\lambda$ gives $\bar v\sim(2-N_c)\varepsilon^2/6$ and $K_2-Pe^{-2}\sim(2-N_c)^2\varepsilon^6/7560$ for a fixed pressure gradient, revealing a sixth-power suppression of shear dispersion as the catheter approaches the arterial wall. Increasing $\lambda$ from $0.01$ to $0.30$ reduces effective convection by about a factor of $2.45$, while chemically passive shear-induced dispersion falls by a factor of $24$. The coupled formulation also yields the exact partition $\Phi_m+\Phi_s+\Phi_a=1$, separating mobile, reversibly retained and irreversibly absorbed solute. The reconstructed field quantifies reaction-modulated transverse non-uniformity, while the results distinguish hydrodynamic effects of confinement and microrotation from kinetic wall effects.
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All authors Sohel Ahmed, Nanda Poddar, Kajal Kumar Mondal, Subham Dhar
Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from cs.LG
Traversing the solution space of neural networks with Hessian Null Space Continuation
Ann Huang, Mitchell Ostrow, Zhouyang Lu et al. (+3 more)
On a single task, deep networks can learn many solutions, depending on their optimizer, training data, architecture, and hyperparameters. Many of these solutions are mode-connected: rather than isolated points in weight space, they are connected by low-loss regions. Yet how their internal computation varies within these regions is unknown. A parallel line of work has identified the degeneracy of neural representations: many networks reach similar training loss with distinct internal structures. However, it is unclear how these solutions are related in weight space. We unify these subfields and show for the first time that many different internal mechanisms exist within a local mode-connected region in weight space. To do so, we introduce Hessian Null Space Continuation (HNC), a scalable method that uses local
curvature to traverse regions of weight space that preserve network function, and can be steered toward solutions with specified properties. In RNNs trained on a
memory task, HNC reaches drastically different representations and dynamics with maintained behavior. In ImageNet-trained
Vision Transformers, HNC finds representations that differ more from the original network than any independently trained model with a different architecture or objective. In reinforcement-learning
agents, HNC uncovers a distinct navigation strategy at comparable return and exposes reward hacking in an AI Safety Gridworld. Finally, HNC measures the local geometry of the solution set, showing how model size and task complexity shape its dimension and functional sensitivity. Our results show that a surprisingly large amount of representational diversity exists near a single trained solution, unseen by standard gradient-based optimization. HNC identifies and quantifies this diversity, opening new possibilities for mechanistic understanding of solution spaces and for model merging, editing, and fine-tuning.
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All authors Ann Huang, Mitchell Ostrow, Zhouyang Lu, William T. Redman, Leo Kozachkov, Kanaka Rajan
Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from cs.AI
Which Attention Heads are like the Human Head? Not the Ones that Compute
Christopher Pinier, Gustaw Opiełka, Hannes Rosenbusch et al. (+3 more)
Brain-AI
alignment is often interpreted as a sign that model and
brain perform similar computations. Whether the aligned units are causally involved in model computation is rarely checked. On an abstract pattern-completion task (AAABAAA $\rightarrow$ B), we compare LLM
attention-head representations with human
EEG and test how ablating those heads affects task performance.
Alignment and causation dissociate:
brain-aligned heads contribute to performance, but their removal is substantially less disruptive than removal of heads selected via attribution patching. We compare two head sets that prior interpretability work defines without reference to the
brain: concept vectors (CVs), which represent abstract patterns across formats, and function vectors (FVs), selected for their contribution to correct-answer prediction.
Brain alignment shows little association with FV scores, while its association with CV scores varies across models. Among
brain-aligned heads, we find recurring
attention profiles: one emphasizes distinctive elements (novelty heads), the other repeating elements (repetition heads). The novelty family tracks salience and attends to the same elements that humans look at, yet its removal is less damaging than random ablation on average. Repetition heads contribute modestly to performance and are associated with abstract-pattern representation (CVs). Across 17 models spanning 3B-72B parameters, FV-ranked removal is substantially more disruptive than
brain-ranked removal.
Brain alignment thus captures how the model reads the stimulus, and only faintly captures how it represents the pattern and solves the task.
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All authors Christopher Pinier, Gustaw Opiełka, Hannes Rosenbusch, Taylor Webb, Michael D. Nunez, Claire E. Stevenson
Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.SD
2-Dimensional spectral gating for denoising bioacoustics recordings
Julien Boussard, Mélisande Teng, Sulagna Saha et al. (+1 more)
Isolating vocalizations from noise in bioacoustics recordings is a prerequisite to many ecological analyses, including species identification, animal communication understanding, and individual or population-level variability studies. However, when recordings are acquired in open environments, vocalizations, noise, or signal-to-noise ratio can vary widely across individuals, species, environment, and recording conditions, making it hard to develop robust and generalizable methods for ecological analyses. To account for these challenges, noise reduction techniques are used to remove noise before downstream analyses. Popular methods such as Noisereduce rely on spectral gating, which estimates a noise threshold for each frequency channel. We propose a further improvement to Noisereduce, leveraging the fact that most animal sounds have structure across multiple frequencies. We apply our method on bird and marine mammals recordings and show that our extension of Noisereduce leads to improved denoising in both above and under water acoustic recordings, without impacting speed of preprocessing.
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All authors Julien Boussard, Mélisande Teng, Sulagna Saha, Mario Gallego-Abenza
Populations and Evolution
Boids of a Feather Flock Together - Evolving Prey Behaviours Under Different Predator Attack Strategies
Augusta van Haren, Hanna Hoogen and Luca Pattavina
Flocking and schooling are thought to have evolved partly as defences against predation, but how prey should balance social and escape tendencies may depend on the predator's hunting strategy. We extend the predator-prey boids model of Ojo et al. (2023), itself based on Reynolds' boids, by combining six prey movement tendencies (
alignment, cohesion, separation, dodge, repel and wiggle) into a single weighted acceleration update, and by reformulating wiggle as a sinusoidal manoeuvre. We then use an evolutionary strategy to optimise the six behaviour coefficients for collective prey survival against four predator hunting strategies: attack-centroid, attack-nearest, attack-random and attack-peripheral. Across five independent trials per strategy, coefficients converged within trials and mean fitness remained stable or increased, although trials often settled in different local optima. Prey survival was highest under attack-centroid and lowest under attack-nearest, in line with our hypotheses. Against attack-centroid, prey evolved individualistic predator avoidance with high escape coefficients, whereas against the other three strategies they largely kept their flock formation. Across all strategies,
evolution favoured a low repel coefficient and relatively high dodge and wiggle coefficients. Our results suggest that optimal anti-predator behaviour depends on the interplay between escape tendencies and the predator's hunting strategy.
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Populations and Evolution
Nutrient Competition as a General Mechanism of Regulation in Photosymbiosis
Jordan A. Gault, Nils Rädecker, Iliana B. Baums et al. (+1 more)
Nitrogen limitation is a key mechanism regulating the mutualism between photosymbiotic cnidarians and their algal symbionts. Algal-derived photosynthate facilitates host assimilation of inorganic nitrogen, specifically ammonium. The resulting competition between symbiotic partners for inorganic nitrogen leads to a negative feedback loop wherein symbiont density is effectively controlled through facilitation of their competitor. However, it is unclear whether this feedback loop is sufficient to stabilize the interaction absent other forms of regulation. Using a generalized modeling approach, we identify the conditions under which cnidarian-algal competition for nitrogen yields dynamically stable symbioses. We show that nitrogen limitation is sufficient to stabilize the interaction through the interplay of intraspecific (symbiont-symbiont) and interspecific (host-symbiont) competition. As host assimilation of inorganic nitrogen increases, the system shifts from being stabilized by intraspecific competition between symbionts to interspecific competition between host and symbionts, necessitating a positive coupling of symbiont density to host nitrogen assimilation via photosynthate translocation for dynamic stability.
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All authors Jordan A. Gault, Nils Rädecker, Iliana B. Baums, Thilo Gross
Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.AI
OmniVCBench: Benchmarking Evidence-Grounded Multimodal Reasoning Towards AI Virtual Cells
Manyu Li, Xunkai Li, Yongfu Xiong et al. (+3 more)
Artificial Intelligence Virtual
Cells (AIVCs) are envisioned as scientific
agents that simulate cellular responses, explain underlying mechanisms, and support hypothesis-driven discovery. Existing AIVC
benchmarks, however, operate primarily at the simulation layer, motivating complementary evaluation of how models interpret experimental evidence and formulate biological hypotheses. We introduce OmniVCBench, a figure-centric, source-traceable
benchmark for the interpretation component of an AIVC. It contains 6,077 curated single- and multi-subfigure question–answer pairs derived from figures and experimental contexts in the scientific literature. Guided by Bloom's taxonomy, we instantiate interpretation-layer counterparts of the AIVC Predict–Explain–Discover agenda through three scientific
reasoning tasks. We further introduce AIVC-Judge, a task-conditioned MLLM-as-a-judge framework with category-specific, reference-aware rubrics for evaluating open-ended responses. A complementary Model-Derived Hard-Negative Mining (MDHNM) strategy converts plausible errors observed during model inference into MCQ distractors for lower-cost evaluation. Within the evaluated heterogeneous model pool, MCQ accuracy correlates positively with AIVC-Judge scores, providing a complementary view of performance alongside open-response evaluation. Code and data demo are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OmniVCBench.
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All authors Manyu Li, Xunkai Li, Yongfu Xiong, Yi Liu, Rong-Hua Li, Guoren Wang
Genomics
CancerZigZag: Iterative Seed-Anchored Diffusion for Generative Modeling of Single-Cell State Transitions
Johannes Schlüter and Alexander Schönhuth
Single-
cell cancer
datasets are predominantly cross-sectional and rarely provide paired or longitudinal observations linking individual healthy-like
cells to tumor-associated states. We introduce CancerZigZag, a seed-initialized
diffusion-based framework for exploratory generation of tumor-associated single-
cell candidate clouds from unpaired epithelial
cell populations. For each cancer context, a
diffusion model is trained exclusively on tumor-derived epithelial
cells and applied through repeated partial latent-space perturbation and reverse
diffusion to held-out healthy-like seeds, generating
stochastic candidate clouds without paired measurements or classifier guidance. We applied CancerZigZag to colorectal, breast, lung, and renal
cell carcinoma contexts and explored parameter landscapes defined by perturbation depth and the number of ZigZag cycles. Across the reported operating configurations, candidate clouds contained outputs classified toward held-out tumor-derived reference populations for each evaluated seed. Residual seed-dependent organization varied across contexts, with the clearest structure in colorectal cancer, more modest organization in lung cancer, and limited cloud-level structure in breast and renal
cell carcinoma. Representative candidates also showed directional concordance with transcriptional shifts observed between held-out healthy-like and tumor-derived reference populations. CancerZigZag is not interpreted as a model of deterministic healthy-to-tumor transformation or cellular progression. Instead, it provides a reference-informed framework for exploring tumor-associated candidate distributions from unpaired healthy-like seeds and quantifying the context-dependent relationship between tumor-associated displacement and residual seed dependence.
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Populations and Evolution
Stochastic gradient descent on the epigenetic landscape: a unified framework for cellular plasticity, tumor heterogeneity, and the asymptotic irrelevance of fitness
Artur C. Fassoni
Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of
cells to switch between states, is central to development, differentiation, and therapy resistance. Although it is modeled at several scales, from compartmental ODEs to phenotype-structured PDEs and single-
cell stochastic equations, a framework connecting these descriptions is missing. We present such a framework. Starting from a general $n$-compartment ODE model encompassing nonlinear growth and linear transitions between phenotypes, we show, with a new, elementary and generalizable proof of a recent
theorem, that under uniform competition, the long-term population distribution is solely governed by transition rates. All phenotypes become selectively neutral at saturation, and the imprint of fitness differences during growth fades at an explicit rate. Restricting transitions to neighboring states transforms the model into a discretization of a phenotype-structured reaction-
diffusion-advection PDE. In this continuum model,
diffusion and advection are identified from switching rates, and fitness remains asymptotically irrelevant. Interpreting the advection velocity as the negative gradient of an effective epigenetic potential transforms the PDE into a Fokker–Planck equation and converts single-
cell trajectories into
stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in the Langevin sense on the phenotypic landscape. Non-local transitions, such as mutations, are incorporated via an integro-differential term, yielding a unified model with reaction, gradient flow,
diffusion, and jumps. State-dependent noise reshapes the effective landscape without altering the underlying potential. This gives cancer a route to elevated plasticity that static, single-
cell snapshots cannot distinguish from a changed landscape. This framework provides a physical interpretation of Waddington's landscape, where
cells perform SGD, and cancer corresponds to a corrupted landscape.
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Biomolecules · Cross-listed from cs.LG
LEMON-ZEST: Evolution-Informed Tokenization for Efficient Protein Language Modeling
Biswajit Banerjee, Claudia Alvarez Carreno and Anton S. Petrov
Protein Language Models (PLMs) have made remarkable progress following scaling laws established in natural
language processing across sequence- and structure-based tasks, yet the potential of tokenization remains underexploited. Unlike human
language,
proteins preserve structure despite extensive sequence variation a property standard tokenization strategies fundamentally fail to capture. We introduce ZEST (Zoned Encoding of Sequence Traits), an
evolution-informed vocabulary derived from conserved regions of multiple sequence
alignments. ZEST allows
embedding domain-level biological priors directly at the tokenization stage rather than learning them implicitly through scale. ZEST natively compresses sequences to an average
token length of 4 residues, enabling our model to process 4,000 residues within a standard 1024-
token context window. Building on this, we present LEMON (Layered Extraction of Molecular Ordering from Nature), a compact 200M-parameter sequence-based model for detection of remote homology between
protein sequences trained on a single H100 GPU for one week. Despite its modest size, LEMON outperforms state-of-the-art models ranging from 600M to 3B parameters. Our results demonstrate that
evolution-informed tokenization can substitute for massive parameter scaling, opening a new direction for efficient, biologically-grounded
protein representation learning. All code, model weights, and results are publicly available under the MIT license.
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Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from cs.AI
Flattening the Connectome Spectrum: A Spectral Filter for FC Induces a Pretraining Target for fMRI Encoders
Giovanni Marraffini, Victoria Shevchenko, Carlo Alberto Barbano et al. (+1 more)
Self-supervised pretraining reshaped prediction in
language and
vision, and
brain foundation models (BFMs) inherited its promise. Representations learned from large unlabelled corpora should capture individual functional dynamics and generalise across cohorts. However, kernel ridge regression (KRR) fitted on functional connectivity (FC)
matrices still predicts individual phenotypes more accurately than any BFM we tested. In this paper, we show that KRR is weighted by the
eigenvalues of the FC which are miscalibrated for phenotype prediction. We apply an efficient spectral filter to recalibrate the
eigenvalues of each subject's FC
matrix, enabling the model to exploit more inter-individual variance. Across the 5
datasets, 11 parcellations and 6 prediction targets we tested, we match or exceed the KRR baseline. Based on this finding, we then pretrain a small encoder model on about 4,000 hours of fMRI from 162 open
datasets, whereby we align the pairwise similarities between the
embeddings of recording snippets with those between the recalibrated connectomes. Our model performs on par with the best of the 6 published BFMs we tested while having an order of magnitude fewer parameters. Our encoder performs better than FC on short scans and in smaller cohorts, especially in fingerprinting. We release the pretrained model weights, the code and the pretraining data, preprocessed and parcellated.
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All authors Giovanni Marraffini, Victoria Shevchenko, Carlo Alberto Barbano, Demian Wassermann
Biomolecules · Cross-listed from cs.LG
Benchmarking graph-based models for in-silico toxicity prediction in drug discovery
Noel Suarez-Barro, Manuel Lama and Juan C. Vidal
Drug discovery is a costly and high-risk process, where toxicity-related failures remain a major cause of attrition in both preclinical and clinical stages. As a result, accurate early prediction of chemical toxicity is essential to reduce downstream costs and improve compound prioritization. In this context, graph deep learning (GDL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for toxicity prediction, leveraging molecular graph representations to learn directly from chemical structure with improved expressivity over traditional approaches. Despite the growing number of proposed models, current literature-based comparisons are often difficult to interpret due to inconsistencies in
datasets, preprocessing pipelines, and evaluation protocols. To address this limitation, we introduce a unified and standardized benchmarking framework for GDL-based toxicity prediction. We systematically evaluate more than 20 representative approaches under consistent experimental conditions and across multiple
datasets and partitioning strategies, enabling a fair and reproducible comparison of model performance. In addition, we complement this empirical study with a structured literature analysis to contextualize existing methodological trends and performance claims. Our results provide a clearer and more reliable assessment of the current state of the field, highlighting both the strengths and limitations of existing graph-based approaches. To support transparency and reproducibility, we release our benchmarking framework as open-source software https://gitlab.citius.gal/noel.suarez/benchtox, allowing the community to evaluate and compare models under consistent conditions.
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Biomolecules
How 'Foundational' Are Current Molecular Foundation Models?
Francesca Grisoni
Large-scale models have permeated the molecular sciences, yet what makes a model 'foundational' in this domain remains poorly defined. This paper proposes three testable criteria for assessing the foundational nature of molecular models: (i) generality across molecular entities, properties, and tasks; (ii) transferability to new applications with no or minimal task-specific retraining; and (iii) generalization beyond the training distribution. Applying these criteria to the state of the art reveals promising progress, particularly visible in biomolecular structure prediction and machine-learned interatomic potentials, although none of the approaches examined fully satisfies all three. Success is concentrated in domains where target properties are consistently defined and training data are abundant, with low label noise relative to physically meaningful variation. More broadly, progress in the molecular sciences appears to depend less on model scale alone than on the quality and structure of available data, as well as the incorporation of prior knowledge into models, prediction tasks, or downstream applications. This work shifts the notion of a molecular foundation model from a descriptive label to a testable hypothesis, offering a framework for assessing current models and guiding future developments.
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Biomolecules
Leveraging secondary-structure information for accurate nucleic acid structure prediction with OFoldNA
Valhalla Team
Recent advances in biomolecular structure prediction have enabled accurate modelling of increasingly complex molecular systems. However, nucleic acid structure prediction remains challenging because of conformational flexibility and the limited availability of high-quality 3D structural data. Secondary structure (SS) provides a more readily available layer of structural information that captures base-pairing relationships and folding
topology. Here we present OFoldNA, an all-atom
diffusion model that incorporates SS information into nucleic acid folding and
protein–nucleic acid co-folding. Without external SS information, OFoldNA achieved leading performance on FoldBench for both nucleic acid monomer folding and
protein–nucleic acid co-folding, with particularly strong performance on DNA monomers and
protein–DNA interfaces involving longer nucleic acid chains. When accurate base-pairing information was provided, OFoldNA-SS2TS further improved both folding and co-folding accuracy, while partial SS information also yielded consistent gains. The same auxiliary branch can also be used for RNA SS prediction as OFoldNA-SS, which achieved the best out-of-distribution performance on CHANRG. Together, these results show that intermediate structural information such as nucleic acid SS can be leveraged to improve all-atom 3D modelling, providing a general direction for incorporating complementary structural modalities into molecular structure prediction and design.
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Neurons and Cognition
An adaptive fractional state links circuit mechanisms to cortical dynamics across the visual hierarchy
Brendan Harris and Pulin Gong
Cortical
circuits must respond flexibly to new inputs while integrating information about the past, yet the way in which neural activity reconciles these competing demands remains unclear. Combining Neuropixels recordings from six mouse visual areas with mechanistic
circuit modeling, we identify a dynamical regime in which heavy-tailed superdiffusive fluctuations coexist with long-range temporal dependence and oscillations. We formalize this regime as the adaptive fractional (AF) state, using an effective mean-field theory in which spatial and temporal fractional derivatives capture heavy-tailed excursions and long-range
memory, respectively. We find that dynamical exponents characterizing the AF state vary systematically across the visual hierarchy: higher visual areas exhibit weaker superdiffusion and stronger temporal
memory. In the
circuit model, this hierarchical shift emerges from a progressive weakening of effective inhibition. These findings extend the classical hierarchy of timescales to a hierarchy of dynamical regimes and suggest that the AF state allows cortical areas to jointly express rapid responses and long-term temporal integration.
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Biomolecules · Cross-listed from cs.AI
AssayRouter: Historical Utility Priors for Frozen Molecular Predictor Routing
Dong Xu, Zhangfan Yang, Jiantao Wu et al. (+5 more)
Laboratories often face a new molecular assay with 16-64 labels and a bank of predictors whose training data and parameters are unavailable. The practical question is which frozen outputs to include in a small local model. AssayRouter treats completed assays as pseudo-targets and labels each candidate by its post-fit utility: the reduction in held-out discovery loss when the candidate is added to the local target predictor. A shared regressor learns to predict this utility from candidate behavior on the support set, without source identity; on a new assay, one frozen ranking selects four sources and separate labels fit a convex combiner. We train only on completed ChEMBL-MT assays and evaluate 24 external regression assays across six frozen interface families. AssayRouter-C lowers strict four-call negative log-likelihood (NLL) by 0.0409 relative to Support-CV@4. Frozen candidate-label permutations confirm that candidate-utility correspondence carries the transferred information, and leave-one-interface-out training shows that the mapping generalizes to unseen predictor families. Completed assays therefore provide transferable supervision for scarce-label routing through frozen prediction interfaces.
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All authors Dong Xu, Zhangfan Yang, Jiantao Wu, Shipeng Zhang, Zexuan Zhu, Jiangqiang Li, Jun Zhang, Junkai Ji
Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG
Scalable Diffusion SBI for Compositional Inference under Simulator Misspecification
Vincent D. Zaballa and Elliot E. Hui
Simulation-based inference is challenging when many heterogeneous observations must be composed, hierarchical latent structure must be preserved, and the simulator is misspecified relative to observed data. We develop sampling and fine-tuning methods for
diffusion-based inference in design-conditional settings, where the same simulator is queried across different experimental conditions $\xi$. We extend compositional score-based inference with a continuous-time
diffusion coefficient that accounts for the number of observations, avoiding Jacobian and auxiliary-covariance corrections. We introduce Hierarchical Blockwise
Diffusion Sampling (HBDS), which infers shared parameters and group-specific latent states using a single pretrained model, with the hierarchy specified only at sampling time. Together, these methods support variable observation sets and groupings without retraining. To address misspecification, we introduce path-regularized fine-tuning that adapts the learned likelihood to observations and transfers corrections to posterior inference. Using Girsanov's
theorem, we quantify path divergence between pretrained and fine-tuned models across experimental designs and interpret it alongside predictive errors to distinguish candidate misspecification correction from unnecessary adaptation. We evaluate compositional sampling on exact-score Gaussian and Simple Likelihood, Complex Posterior
benchmarks, HBDS with analytic and learned scores on a controlled hierarchical model, and fine-tuning and localization on a separate analytic model with known design-dependent discrepancy. Finally, we apply the framework to 940 measurements across four
cell lines in a mechanistic Bone Morphogenetic
Protein signaling model, where fine-tuning improves posterior-predictive accuracy relative to the pretrained model and shifts posterior marginals toward the least-squares reference while retaining spread.
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