Other Quantitative Biology
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Monday 12 October
Cortisol is an essential hormone secreted by the adrenal glands. Abnormally low level of cortisol is referred to as adrenal insufficiency. This paper focuses on devising treatment strategies for patients suffering from adrenal insufficiency using a model-based approach. Two conditions of adrenal insufficiency are analysed. They are hypothalamic-pituitary (HP) and adrenal gland disorders. The hypothalamus, pituitary, and adrenal glands constitute the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, which regulates stress and maintains physiological homeostasis through cortisol secretion. A comparative analysis of the existing mathematical models of the HPA axis is conducted. Based on this analysis, a novel model of the HPA axis is proposed that incorporates endogenous circadian rhythm. This proposed model is used to design effective cortisol replacement strategies. In addition, hydrocortisone replacement therapies are proposed and validated with clinical data from the literature. The results presented in this paper are applicable to patient-specific treatment strategies for individuals with adrenal insufficiency.
Sunday 27 September
Other Quantitative Biology
A mechanistic interpretation of mutation risk across biological scales
The allometry of cancer risk in mammals is scale-specific, as the inter-specific, intra-specific, and inter-organ patterns in cancer risk scaling are distinct from each other. While cancer risk barely changes with increasing body sizes across species, larger conspecifics are known to be at a higher risk of cancer. Cancer risk trends with age and lifespan have likewise been documented in humans and other species. Nevertheless, mammals broadly share developmental features, and the twin processes of cell division and differentiation are central to developmental dynamics. In this study, we suppose that a better understanding of these processes across biological scales could lead to a clearer understanding of cancer risk allometries. We develop an agent-based model in which a cell compartment grows from one cell to a target size. We assess how developmental dynamics scale with compartment size and influence mutation accumulation. Our data identify specific regions of the parameter space where the accumulation of neutral mutations increases with cell number, while providing a mechanistic explanation for such behavior. The accumulation of non-neutral mutations reveals an interesting antagonism in cell fitness between mutation and differentiation, which could change the viability of a given developmental strategy. Our model is able to produce a wide range of trends in cancer risk allometries in different parts of its parameter space, reflecting the observed heterogeneity across biological scales. Our results provide a theoretical framework that allows us to elucidate the conditions of mutation-differentiation balance under which having more cells does lead to higher cancer risk, and importantly, the conditions under which it does not.
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Wednesday 23 September
Other Quantitative Biology · Cross-listed from cs.CV
Benchmarking Active Spot Selection for Cost-Efficient Spatial Transcriptomics
Spatial transcriptomics (ST) measures gene expression in tissue context, but dense capture grids can be costly and may repeatedly sample morphologically similar regions. Most active learning strategies were developed for categorical labels and independent samples. We conduct a retrospective pool-based benchmark of active learning versus uniform Random sampling for ST, where expression vectors are high-dimensional and continuous and candidates are spatially correlated. Using two fully profiled public ST cohorts, we mask candidate expression vectors and simulate multi-round selection with uncertainty-based Monte Carlo dropout (MC-dropout) and temporal output discrepancy (TOD), and diversity-based CoreSet and TypiClust-inspired selection. We compare 160 completed configurations at 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% of the fold-wide training spot pool under patient-level cross-validation, with a separate full-label reference. Within each budget, strategies share the selection schedule, morphology-to-expression predictor, and optimization protocol. We assess mean per-gene within-slide Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), expression-cluster agreement, and Moran's I fidelity. On HER2-positive breast cancer, pooled mean PCC differences from Random across the four active strategies were -0.0176, -0.0117, +0.0056, and +0.0057 at 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50%, respectively. On cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), three strategies were below Random at 5%, and all four were below Random at 10%. On HER2-positive breast cancer, CoreSet and MC-dropout had lower PCC but higher expression-cluster agreement than Random at the two smallest budgets; this pattern did not reproduce on cSCC. Under the reported fixed training horizons, the evaluated active strategies do not consistently improve on Random at small budgets, and rankings depend on the evaluation measure.
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Thursday 17 September
Other Quantitative Biology
2D reaction-diffusion model-based biopsy simulation for dynamic tumor growth parameter estimation
Once diagnosed, cancer requires a fast, reliable and preferably cost-efficient assessment of the current state and potential progression of the disease. A new method for estimating tumor cell diffusivity $D$ and proliferation rate $\gamma$ in the context of the mechanistic reaction-diffusion equation from single-point-in-time routine biopsies aims to deliver just that, and quantities computed from the parameter estimates have recently been tested as a new biomarkers for risk-stratification in radiotherapy. Here, we extend the findings of this previous work by providing a first theoretical validation. The method is applied to in-silico biopsies which are generated by solving the two-dimensional reaction-diffusion equation for different growth terms (exponential and logistic) with a Dirac-Delta initial condition, and transforming the continuous results into spatial point patterns via a form of reverse coarse-graining. If no information about tumor age is used, in short-term experiments the original dispersion length $\sqrt{D/\gamma}$ could be retrieved with a relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) of around 8% and an $\text{R}^2$-value of 0.97. In long-term experiments, the RRMSEs ranged from 8 to 14% and the $\text{R}^2$-values from 0.75 to 0.98. The scaled front velocity $\sqrt{D \cdot\gamma}$, which can only be estimated if information about tumor age is available, was retrieved with an RRMSE of 7% and an $\text{R}^2$ of 0.98 in both, the short-term and the long-term experiments.
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Wednesday 16 September
Other Quantitative Biology · Cross-listed from cs.HC
"I Know Where to Look," But Does the LLM? Charting the Gaps Between Clinical Expert Needs and Unstructured Data Abstraction Tools
Clinical data abstraction, the process of distilling structured information from patient records, plays a key role in advancing knowledge about diseases such as cancer. Information extraction (IE) with large language models (LLMs) could accelerate this process, but it is unclear whether current frameworks effectively support clinical researchers without AI expertise. To address this, we co-designed an interactive LLM-based abstraction system called Libretto with seven cancer research teams, then evaluated the system's ability to help them answer real-world research questions. We found that while clinicians knew where and how to annotate complex concepts in patient notes, in twelve of fourteen tasks they faced barriers to replicating those intuitions with LLMs. Contextual note reliability judgments, difficulties in steering vibe-coded prompts, and inflexible evaluation strategies necessitated fundamental changes to the IE workflow. Our results highlight open problems for HCI research to bridge the gaps between AI data work tools and clinical users' needs.
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Tuesday 15 September
Other Quantitative Biology
Flash-Radiomics: A Scalable Hybrid CPU-CUDA Engine for Standardized Scalar Radiomics and Accelerated Spatial Mapping
Background and Objectives: Spatial mapping retains the spatial distribution of radiomic features, but computational cost and fragmented software limit its use. We developed Flash-Radiomics with scalar extraction and spatial mapping, a central processing unit (CPU) backend, a hybrid Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) backend, consistent feature names, and Hierarchical Data Format version 5 (HDF5) storage. Methods: We evaluated Image Biomarker Standardisation Initiative (IBSI) compliance, CPU-CUDA concordance, and end-to-end processing time. Compliance testing included 825 chapter 1 (IBSI-1) tests covering 165 high-consensus features and 323 chapter 2 (IBSI-2) tests with numerical references. Concordance testing included 1,148 scalar pairs and 93 spatial-map pairs. End-to-end processing time was measured five times per input volume of interest (VOI) size. Comparisons included the Medical Image Radiomics Processor (MIRP) and PyRadiomics for 102 shared scalar features and PyRadiomics for 93 shared spatial maps. Results: Both backends passed all 1,148 IBSI tests, and all paired results were concordant. At the largest scalar input, CPU required 76.343 s and hybrid CUDA 81.915 s; CPU was 4.7 times faster than MIRP and 190.7 times faster than PyRadiomics. At the largest spatial input completed by both backends, hybrid CUDA reduced processing time by 68.6% relative to CPU (79.280 versus 252.791 s). At PyRadiomics' largest completed spatial input, hybrid CUDA was 84.9 times faster. Conclusions: Flash-Radiomics unified standardized scalar extraction, spatial mapping, concordant CPU-CUDA results, and HDF5 storage. CPU processing time was similar or shorter for scalar extraction, whereas hybrid CUDA was faster for spatial mapping under the tested conditions.
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Friday 11 September
Other Quantitative Biology
Making Models That Matter: How to Build Trustworthy and Useful Systems Biology Models
Computational models supporting mechanistic understanding of (complex) biological systems, systems behaviour prediction, and experimental design are becoming more and more embedded in research on complex biological systems. Reuse and refinement of models, rather than continuous reinvention, is becoming increasingly important as models' demands on computational infrastructure increase. However published models - despite the variety of efforts taken so far - are frequently difficult to reproduce or reuse, substantially limiting their scientific value. Here we address the requirements for model reusability in the light of the field-specific CURE framework (Credible, Understandable, Reproducible, Extensible) and the more general FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable). Considering published guidance we identify broad agreement on requirements for findability, accessibility, and interoperability, but continued lack of clarity and consensus around reusability. Focusing on the scientific quality and usability of computational models we discuss six key practices underpinning model sharing and re-use. Mapping the FAIR and CURE principles onto the model lifecycle we propose ten recommendations for building and sharing systems biology models that are both FAIR- and CURE-compliant.
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Thursday 10 September
Other Quantitative Biology
SenSASP: A Unified, Multi-Layer Database of Senescence and SASP Genes
Research on cellular senescence and the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) draws on independently curated gene resources that differ in scope, identifiers, and update cycles, making cross-resource integration error-prone. We unified four widely used resources, CellAge, GenAge, the SenMayo signature, and the Reactome Cellular Senescence pathway, onto a single canonical identifier (the Ensembl gene ID) and enriched every gene with three annotation layers absent from all four inputs: cross-species conservation, tissue and cell-type expression, and high-confidence protein-protein interactions. Unification collapsed 1,460 summed source entries into 1,250 unique genes (210 redundant entries removed, 14.4%) while preserving full source provenance: 173 genes are corroborated by two or more resources and two (IL6, JUN) by all four. The three annotation layers reach 95.8%, 97.9%, and 93.0% of genes, with 89.4% annotated across all three. A 500-gene random sample of identifier mappings was validated against HGNC and Ensembl (98.0% exact match). The result, SenSASP, is a single, machine-readable, provenance-tracked database of harmonized identifiers and net-new functional context, illustrated here with a gene-prioritization score and a tissue-expression atlas. SenSASP is freely available at https://xuan13hao.github.io/sensasp/
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Tuesday 8 September
Other Quantitative Biology · Cross-listed from physics.pop-ph
The Epistemic Risk of the 31st Spore: If Planets Aren't Fine Tuned, We're Doing Life Detection Wrong
Exploration of planetary bodies within our solar system will be essential for understanding the origin of life on Earth and the distribution of life in the universe. Planetary protection policy is concerned with balancing this desire for exploration against the risks of contaminating alien planets with Earth life, and contaminating Earth with alien life. However, at present, we have no fundamental scientific understanding of life's emergence or its nature beyond Earth. Given this nearly complete ignorance about the possibility of alien life, or Earth life's capacity to expand beyond our planet, it is difficult to reason about the real risks of space exploration. Here we contend that contemporary understandings of the risks of forward contamination are based on arguments which inconsistently apply our incomplete knowledge to the problem. We reason that a more assertive posture towards space exploration, focused on determining whether other planets in the solar system are inhabited, is warranted and explain why such a posture may not increase the epistemic risks of planetary contamination. Finally, we explore the consequences of our arguments for planetary protection protocols, and life detection efforts.
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Wednesday 2 September
Other Quantitative Biology
MarkerScout: A Disease-Agnostic Machine Learning Framework for Biomarker Prediction from Multi-Scale Mechanistic Models
We demonstrate the framework on three infectious diseases derived from a companion mechanistic immune-simulation platform: SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A Virus, and Plasmodium falciparum. Each disease was evaluated across hospitalization and intensive care unit cohorts, yielding six cohorts in total. Best-pipeline cross-validated macro F1 ranged from 0.82 for IAV-HOSP to 0.99 for COV-ICU, and the framework produced tiered, direction-aware biomarker lists for each disease and phase. Interleukin-18 (IL-18) reached the strongest tier in both SARS-CoV-2 phases with consistent direction. When benchmarked against three separate, independently collected clinical ICU datasets, MarkerScout's top-ranked features outperformed 94.4% of randomly selected feature sets of equivalent size for SARS-CoV-2, with a weaker but directionally consistent advantage for Influenza A Virus (66.7%) and Plasmodium falciparum (60.7%).
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Tuesday 1 September
Other Quantitative Biology · Cross-listed from physics.bio-ph
Importance and methods to control, vary, and characterize mud strength for studying locomotion
Animals and robots encounter mud at the water-land interface. Like sand, mud can stay solid or flow like a fluid. Unlike sand, the yield strength of mud at which solid-fluid transitions occur depends on not only the amount of solid relative to fluid (water in mud, air in dry sand), but also how much coarse grains and fine clay are within the solid. Despite understanding of locomotion on/within dry sand dominated by coarse grains with repulsive normal forces and friction, little is known for mud dominated by fine clay with strong cohesion. Here, we developed methods to prepare uniform mud of controlled, variable yield strength and characterize and track its drift from water evaporation. Compared to other flowable substrates, mud strength measured by upward force during penetration is weaker and can vary more, and mud sticks more during extraction to pull downward, making it more challenging for locomotion.
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Monday 31 August
Other Quantitative Biology
Enhancing Clinical Decision Support and Differential Diagnosis with Knowledge Graphs, and Retrieval Augmented Generation in Generative AI
Diagnostic error carries a burden, while unconstrained large language models (LLMs) remain vulnerable to hallucination and weak integration of quantitative laboratory dynamics. We developed a decision-support pipeline combining disease-specific biomarker correlation graphs, ordinary differential equations (ODEs), deep sequence classification, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). For 103 disease classes from a full blood count (FBC) repository, biomarker networks were used as coupling matrices to generate 30 trajectories per disease (3,090 total). A one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network classified disease trajectories and six dynamical clusters. A constrained GPT-4o-mini RAG layer used a 19-pattern BMJ Best Practice/NICE corpus to generate differential diagnoses evaluated for diagnostic suitability, evidential grounding, and clinical plausibility. Across five random-seed runs, disease-level accuracy was $0.940 \pm 0.006$ for the CNN (95% CI 0.933–0.948) and $0.852 \pm 0.019$ for the LSTM (95% CI 0.828–0.875); the CNN advantage was 8.87 percentage points (95% CI 6.47–11.27; $t(4)=10.26$, $p=5.1\times10^{-4}$; Hedges' $g=3.67$). Among 100 sampled RAG cases, 96 parsed successfully; evidence was cited in 97.9%, the true diagnosis was mentioned in 71.9%, and the composite score was 3.82/5 with a 47.9% strict pass rate. The central finding was a decoupling between grounding and diagnostic correctness: classifier-correct versus classifier-wrong outputs differed in diagnostic suitability but not evidential grounding. Post-hoc analysis confirmed a 1.02-point diagnostic-score difference (Mann–Whitney $p=0.0024$; Hedges' $g=0.72$), whereas grounding differed by only $-0.02$ points ($p=0.839$; $g=-0.04$).
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Friday 28 August
Other Quantitative Biology
Geochemical Hazard Assessment of Martian Regolith for Future Human Exploration
As human missions to Mars move from concept to planning to reality, a systematic quantitative health risk assessment of martian regolith exposure has become critically important. This study presents a comprehensive multi-element, multi-pathway health hazard analysis of martian regolith for a 70 kg adult astronaut on an 18-month surface mission, using bulk silicate Mars geochemical data and Earth Upper Continental Crust reference values as baseline comparators. We computed Average Daily Dose, Hazard Quotient, Hazard Index, Enrichment Factor, Ecological Risk Factor, and Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk across all three exposure pathways (oral ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact) for toxic and heavy metals, under four filtration scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 95%). Results demonstrate that Cr and Co represent the most critical non-carcinogenic hazards, exceeding the regulatory threshold (HI > 1) even at 50% filtration, while Cr also poses the most significant carcinogenic risk, near the $10^{-4}$ regulatory threshold level. At least 92% regolith filtration efficiency is required to reduce Cr to acceptable non-cancer hazard levels. Nickel exceeds the acceptable cancer risk threshold of $10^{-6}$ at all filtration levels below 95%. No element other than Cr and Co exceeds HI = 1 in the unfiltered scenario, although Fe, Ni and Mn approach concerning levels. These results establish that a minimum 95% High-Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA)-grade filtration efficiency combined with active chemical sorption is required for acceptable Cr and Co short term exposure and Cr, Ni long term exposure management. This study provides a pathway-specific quantitative risk framework applicable to habitat air quality standards and EVA suit specifications for Mars surface operations
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Other Quantitative Biology
Expanding the Human Ancestry Ontology to include under-represented populations and ethnicities for broader utility in annotations
Successful discovery, integration and reuse of data relies on the availability of rich, well-structured and machine-readable metadata to describe every aspect of the data, from sample sources to collection processes to experimental protocols. The use of standardised terminologies to express concepts in a harmonised fashion lies at the core of high-quality data annotation, increasing the FAIRness of the data, facilitating data integration and promoting reproducibility. Here, we describe the Human Ancestry Ontology (HANCESTRO), originally developed to improve standardised reporting of genetic ancestry genomic resources such as the NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog and the Human Cell Atlas through high-level population descriptors, and more recently expanded to include diverse and previously under-represented populations in genomics and genetics research. HANCESTRO provides a framework for population descriptors that includes both ancestry based on the analysis of genetic information and self-reported ethnicity, which is based on social and cultural factors that don't necessarily align with genetic populations. By enabling the accurate and interoperable representation of population-related data, it promotes inclusive, representative and reproducible science.
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Thursday 27 August
Other Quantitative Biology
Conservative deterministic Markov models in mathematical biology: uniqueness of steady states, reversibility and computational methods
Ordinary differential equations are commonly used throughout the sciences to build mechanistic models of time-dependent processes. Often, such models are Markov models describing the time-evolution of different interconnected "states". When these models have no "sources" or "sinks", they naturally conserve the total population of the system. When each state is reachable (directly or indirectly) from any other state, these models are called irreducible. For many applications, a deterministic system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) is the most suitable modelling approach. We summarise important mathematical results which show that this irreducibility property guarantees the existence and uniqueness of global stable equilibria, and discuss the computationally-efficient implementation of such ODE-based models. We also discuss the condition of microscopic reversibility and show how it guarantees non-oscillatory behaviour, which enables additional efficiencies in computations. These properties and methods are demonstrated through example models of biological phenomena, where we demonstrate their importance for efficient model fitting and simulation.
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Monday 24 August
Other Quantitative Biology
Beyond chlorophyll: machine learning estimates of diagnostic phytoplankton pigments from multispectral ocean colour data
Phytoplankton play a central role in marine ecosystems and the global carbon cycle, with different groups contributing differently to ocean biogeochemical processes. While standard techniques exist for monitoring phytoplankton concentration from ocean-colour data, their community composition remains difficult to observe at large scales. Chlorophyll-a, widely available from satellite ocean-colour observations, is commonly used as a measure of phytoplankton biomass but provides limited information on taxonomic composition. Accessory pigments, some of which are diagnostic of important phytoplankton groups, offer additional information on community structure, but their retrieval from ocean-colour data is challenging because of limited spectral resolution and strong covariance with chlorophyll-a. In this study, we evaluate machine learning methods for estimating diagnostic pigment concentrations from multispectral satellite observations. Using a global dataset of 33,640 High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) measurements matched with ESA Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) reflectance data, we compare Random Forest and TabPFN models trained on multispectral reflectance with baseline models using chlorophyll-a alone. A temporally stratified validation scheme is employed to reduce the effects of autocorrelation. Results show that multispectral models consistently outperform approaches based solely on satellite-derived chlorophyll-a, demonstrating that ocean-colour reflectance contains additional information relevant to pigment discrimination. Improvements vary by pigment, with those strongly correlated with chlorophyll-a showing limited gains, while others exhibit substantial improvement. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning to extract ecologically relevant information from satellite data beyond conventional chlorophyll-based approaches.
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Monday 17 August
Other Quantitative Biology
Phil Bourne (1953-2026): From Small Molecules to Big Data — The Journey of a Multifaceted Visionary
Born in London in 1953 and raised in Australia, Phil Bourne spent over four decades in science moving across scales: from crystal structures to the world's premier structural biology database; from scientific journals to national data policy; from molecules to institutions. The International Society for Computational Biology (ISCB) chose Phil to receive its 2026 Outstanding Service Award (Wiper, 2026). He passed away on 8 March 2026, in Charlottesville, Virginia, before he could receive it. This piece is in memory of Phil, who most recently served as the Founding Stephenson Dean of the University of Virginia's School of Data Science and as a Professor of Biomedical Engineering$\unicode{x2013}$and who was, over the course of his career, a steadfast builder of Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, of Open Science and Data Science. A tribute site, https://philbourne.muchloved.com, invites those who knew Phil to share memories, photos, and reflections.
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Monday 10 August
Other Quantitative Biology
Mutual-Information-Dependent Nonlinear Threshold Response Model Linked to the Free Energy Principle
Biological systems not only infer states of the external world from sensory input but also vary the expression of their responses according to the information they have acquired. Here, without altering the standard inferential and policy-evaluation schemes of the Free Energy Principle (FEP) and active inference, we propose a minimal dynamics that links the mutual information formed between an external state and an internal representation through inference to a response-expression variable distinct from policy selection. In this formulation, established information is positioned as a state signal that modulates response expression. The model introduces a piecewise nonlinear term in which response activation is driven only when mutual information exceeds an information threshold. Monte Carlo simulations using a two-state Markov environment showed that increasing observation accuracy increased the mutual information between the external state and the internal representation and, in turn, increased response activation. By contrast, in a control condition without information-response coupling, the response remained at its baseline level. The basic pattern of response activation was preserved when observation accuracy, the information-response coupling coefficient, the information threshold, and the closed-loop coefficient linking response to sensory sampling were varied. These results show that coupling information formed by FEP-consistent inference to an independent response-expression dynamics can generate a nonlinear response that depends on an information threshold.