Computational Physics · Cross-listed from cond-mat.dis-nn
The dimensionality of the Hopfield model
Cristopher Erazo, Santiago Acevedo and Alessandro Ingrosso
We use the Binary Intrinsic Dimension (BID), a geometrical measure designed for binary data, to analyze the Hopfield model, a paradigmatic
spin system from statistical mechanics, machine learning and neuroscience. The BID allows us to characterize the phases and transitions of this system, and moreover it is robust against finite-size effects that interfere with the correct numerical estimation of the
spin-glass order parameter ($q$). We observe that the BID scales linearly with system size in the
retrieval and paramagnetic phases, where the correlations between
spins are small, and exhibits sublinear scaling in the whole
spin-glass phase, highlighting its correlated structure. Furthermore, we establish a direct relationship between the BID and the overlap distribution, unveiling a novel connection between the geometry of the state-space and standard
spin order parameters.
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Optics
Transition Metal Dichalcogenides Multijunction Solar Cells Toward the Multicolor Limit
Seungwoo Lee
Transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) and other van der Waals (vdW)
semiconductors enable transfer-printed,
lattice-mismatch-free stacking of many photovoltaic junctions, motivating a re-examination of multijunction detailed-balance limits under realistic material and optical constraints. Here, we develop a unified thermodynamic framework for a multijunction photovoltaic device, which can define a clear set of device-window constraints, optical boundary conditions, and luminescence/
entropy penalties and therefore define how closely any realistic multijunction photovoltaic device can approach multicolor limit. By applying it to a conservative TMD bandgap window (1.0-2.1~eV), we show that the accessible bandgap window imposes a large-junction number (N) efficiency limit: under full concentration, unconstrained ladders approach 84.5% at N=50, whereas the TMD window plateaus near 63.4%. This efficiency plateau is set by
photons outside the bandgaps, so radiative quality and optics dominate beyond N=5 junctions for realistic transfer-printed device stacks. We identify an experimentally achievable N=5 ladder Eg~(2.10,1.78,1.50,1.24, 1.00)eV and map each rung to candidate vdW/TMD absorbers. Using reciprocity and luminescence thermodynamics, we quantify penalties from finite external radiative efficiency, two-sided emission, and luminescent coupling, and introduce the upward-emitted luminescence power as an indicator of
entropy-loss proxy. Incorporating excitonic absorptance and nanophotonic thickness bounds yields practical thickness and light-management targets for transfer-printed stacks. Finally, inserting an idealized nonreciprocal multijunction model into the reciprocity-optimized ladders provides conservative efficiency advantage estimates, which are consistent with negligible benefit for single junctions but measurable efficiency gains for multijunction TMD devices.
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Optics
Suspended thin-film lithium niobate modulator for broadband mid-infrared light modulation and frequency comb generation
Chun-Ho Lee, Xinyi Ren, Xinzhou Su et al. (+12 more)
The mid-infrared (MIR) spectral regime is central to applications including remote sensing, precision spectroscopy, higher harmonic generation, and free-space optical communication. However, coherent and broadband MIR modulation remains challenging owing to high optical loss, limited bandwidth, and large drive voltages in existing platforms. Here, we overcome these challenges by deploying a suspended thin-film lithium-niobate (TFLN) based electro-optic (EO) platform co-designed with high-performance traveling-wave microwave (MW) electrodes. We demonstrate a record-low Vpi,DC of 2.3 to 4.3 V over a broadband MIR bandwidth from 2.4 to 3.6 um, and a 2.7 dB EO bandwidth of 40 GHz (extracted 3 dB bandwidth of 50 GHz), yielding a figure of merit of 17.4 GHz/V, more than an order of magnitude higher than the state of the art. We demonstrate, for the first time, high-frequency Vpi,MW of 4.5 to 6.5 V in the 25 to 35 GHz range, and frequency-agile MIR EO frequency comb generation with a 10 dB optical bandwidth over 0.8 THz using a suspended phase modulator of 4 cm active modulation length. We further validate the platform in a free-space optical communication link. Our results establish a monolithic MIR photonic platform capable of powerful EO modulation and spectral synthesis, and represent a significant step toward reconfigurable MIR sensing and communication systems on chip.
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All authors Chun-Ho Lee, Xinyi Ren, Xinzhou Su, Wonho Lee, Zile Jiang, Yue Yu, Huibin Zhou, Yue Zuo, Shaoyuan Ou, Reshma Kopparapu, Adam T. Heiniger, Moshe Tur, Alan E. Willner, Zaijun Chen, Mengjie Yu
Computational Physics
Physics-guided curriculum learning for the identification of reaction-diffusion dynamics from partial observations
Hanyu Zhou, Yuansheng Cao and Yaomin Zhao
Reaction-
diffusion (RD) systems provide fundamental models for understanding self-organized spatiotemporal patterns across natural and engineered settings, yet reliable parameter estimation remains challenging, particularly when observations are sparse, noisy, and restricted to a subset of state variables. We introduce CLIP (Curriculum Learning Identification via PINNs), a physics-guided framework built on physics-informed neural networks for joint parameter inference and hidden-state reconstruction under partial observability. Leveraging the physical separability of RD systems, the CLIP training progresses from reaction-dominated regimes to full spatiotemporal dynamics using curriculum learning and an anchored widening transfer strategy. Across three canonical reaction-
diffusion benchmarks, CLIP achieves more accurate and robust identification than baseline methods. Furthermore, the CLIP framework is successfully applied to infer the dynamics of the Min system in bacteria, where only membrane-bound species are observed and key kinetic rates span multiple orders of magnitude. Ablation experiments and loss-landscape visualizations demonstrate that both the curriculum stages and the anchored transfer are essential for stable convergence.
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Optics
Classical Petermann Factor as a Measure of Quantum Squeezing in Photonic Time Crystals
Younsung Kim, Kyungmin Lee, Changhun Oh et al. (+3 more)
Photonic time
crystals realize a continuum of momentum-resolved SU(1,1) parametric amplifiers. We show that a classical quantity, the Petermann factor of the effective Floquet Bogoliubov de Gennes (BdG) dynamical
matrix, sets the scale of their
quantum noise. In stable bands it fixes the Bogoliubov mixing and hence the mean bare-
photon occupation of the Floquet
vacuum, while in momentum gaps it sets the
photon-number prefactor and enhances the squeezing dynamics, with the Floquet growth rate setting the time scale. This converts classical measurements of mode nonorthogonality into quantitative predictions for squeezing and
photon generation, and offers a compact design parameter for engineering
quantum resources in two-mode BdG platforms.
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All authors Younsung Kim, Kyungmin Lee, Changhun Oh, Young-Sik Ra, Kun Woo Kim, Bumki Min
Popular Physics · Cross-listed from nlin.CG
Revealing Latent Self-Similarity in Cellular Automata via Recursive Gradient Profiling
Chung-En Hao and Ivan C. H. Liu
Cellular automata (CA), originally developed as computational models of natural processes, have become a central subject in the study of complex systems and generative visual forms. Among them, the Ulam-Warburton Cellular Automaton (UWCA) exhibits recursive growth and fractal-like characteristics in its spatial
evolution. However, exact self-similar fractal structures are typically observable only at specific generations and remain visually obscured in conventional binary renderings. This study introduces a Recursive Gradient Profile Function (RGPF) that assigns grayscale values to newly activated
cells according to their generation index, enabling latent self-similar structures to emerge cumulatively in spatial visualizations. Through this gradient-based mapping, recursive
geometric patterns become perceptible across scales, revealing fractal properties that are not apparent in standard representations. We further extend this approach to UWCA variants with alternative neighborhood configurations, demonstrating that these rules also produce distinct yet consistently fractal visual patterns when visualized using recursive gradient profile. Beyond computational analysis, the resulting generative forms resonate with optical and cultural phenomena such as infinity mirrors,
video feedback, and mise en abyme in European art history, as well as fractal motifs found in religious architecture. These visual correspondences suggest a broader connection between complexity science, computational visualization, and cultural art and design.
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Fluid Dynamics
Fully Turbulent Wakes at Low Reynolds Numbers: the Case of the Thin Flat Plate
Isaac T. Rosin, Melanie S. Chapman, Bartosz Protas et al. (+1 more)
We consider the wake flow past a thin two-dimensional flat plate normal to the uniform stream and demonstrate that this flow is turbulent already at a relatively low Reynolds number of $Re = 400$. This is achieved by performing a careful comparison of the results of a DNS of this flow with experimental measurements of wake flows in the same
geometric configuration at the Reynolds numbers of $Re=12500, 19700$. This comparison reveals that the distribution of several key quantities, including the mean velocity, Reynolds stresses and different effects contributing to the transport of the turbulent kinetic energy, are, up to measurement uncertainty, the same in these flows. Moreover, the wake flow at $Re = 400$ also features energy spectra characteristic of turbulent flows with intermittency detected in the distributions of the fluctuating strain and rotation rates. In contrast, these features are absent from the results of the DNS of the wake flow at $Re = 150$ where the distribution of the key quantities is also fundamentally different. These results show that the path to transition to
turbulence in the wake past a thin flat plate is different from that in the wakes of canonical (i.e., circular or square) cylinders. We also identify possible physical mechanisms that may be responsible for these differences.
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All authors Isaac T. Rosin, Melanie S. Chapman, Bartosz Protas, Robert J. Martinuzzi
Chemical Physics
Quantum field theory approach for multistage chemical kinetics in liquids
Roman V. Li, Oleg A. Igoshin, Evgeny B. Krissinel et al. (+1 more)
Reaction-
diffusion processes play an important role in a variety of physical, chemical, and biological systems. Conventionally, the kinetics of these processes are described by the law of mass action. However, there are various cases where these equations are insufficient. A fundamental challenge lies in accurately accounting for the microscopic correlations that inevitably arise in bimolecular reactions. While approaches to describe microscopic correlations in many specific cases exist, no general theory for multistage reactions has been established. In this article, we apply the
quantum field theory approach to derive kinetic equations for general multistage reactive systems termed CMET (complete modified encounter theory). CMET can be formulated as a set of coupled partial differential equations that can be easily integrated numerically, thereby serving as a versatile tool for investigating reaction-
diffusion processes. Across multiple case studies, we demonstrated that CMET reproduces the kinetics predicted by many other theories within their respective scopes of applicability.
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All authors Roman V. Li, Oleg A. Igoshin, Evgeny B. Krissinel, Pavel A. Frantsuzov
Fluid Dynamics
Wind-turbine wake effects on the rate of accumulation of fatigue damage in overhead conductors
Francisco J. G. de Oliveira, Kevin Gouder, Zahra Sharif Khodaei et al. (+1 more)
Guidance relating to the safe distance within which overhead conductors (OHCs) should not be built with respect to a wind turbine, and vice versa, varies from country to country. In the United Kingdom the recommendation is that OHCs are not installed within three rotor diameters (3D) of wind turbines due to concerns over wake-induced fatigue. To assess the physical basis for this recommendation, wind-tunnel experiments were conducted using a scaled wind turbine placed upstream of an instrumented conductor, in conditions representative of forested terrain. The conductor was equipped with distributed fibre-optic strain sensing based on Rayleigh backscattering, providing spatially resolved measurements at 2.6 mm resolution. Three conductor heights and four turbine-conductor spacings were tested, together with a no-turbine baseline, while maintaining a constant incident wind speed of 7 m/s. The results identify a critical region near the clamp where mean strain is maximised. Neither mean nor fluctuating strain at this location increased substantially due to the presence of the turbine wake. Strain fluctuations were dominated by aeolian vibration, with the wake increasing vibration amplitude whilst reducing its characteristic frequency. Rainflow counting fatigue analysis shows that damage accumulation depends strongly on conductor height. While fatigue damage rates increase when the conductor is fully immersed in the wake, reduced damage rates are observed for lower heights and closer spacings. These results suggest that, under forested atmospheric conditions, conductor-turbine separations smaller than the current 3D guidance may be feasible provided the conductor is not fully immersed in the turbine wake.
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All authors Francisco J. G. de Oliveira, Kevin Gouder, Zahra Sharif Khodaei, Oliver R. H. Buxton
Plasma Physics
Hybrid collisional-radiative modeling for high-fidelity atomic kinetics
Prashant Sharma, Christopher J. Fontes, Mark Zammit et al. (+3 more)
The fidelity of collisional-radiative (CR) models is critical for advancing our understanding of radiative properties and ionization balance in fusion
plasmas. In this work, we present and evaluate hybrid CR schemes that combine fine-structure resolution with superconfiguration averaging, offering a practical compromise between accuracy and computational efficiency. Two hybrid CR models are developed for helium, lithium, and beryllium, retaining detailed fine-structure states up to selected principal
quantum numbers, while higher-lying states are statistically averaged to form superconfigurations. These models are applied to compute radiative power loss, as well as average and effective charge states, across a wide range of electron temperatures and densities. The results are benchmarked against a fully fine-structure-resolved CR model to assess the accuracy of the hybrid approach. The findings demonstrate the versatility of hybrid CR schemes and their suitability for detailed
plasma simulations where predictive fidelity must be balanced with computational cost.
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All authors Prashant Sharma, Christopher J. Fontes, Mark Zammit, James Colgan, Nathan Garland, Xian-Zhu Tang
Physics and Society · Cross-listed from nlin.AO
From microscopic social force models to macroscopic continuum models for pedestrian flow
Liangze Yang, Hui Yu and Jie Du
The pedestrian flow is one of the most complex systems, involving large populations of interacting
agents. Models at microscopic and macroscopic scales offer different advantages for studying related problems. In general, microscopic models can describe interaction forces at the individual level. Macroscopic models, on the other hand, provide analytical insights into global interactions and long-term overall dynamics, along with efficient numerical simulations and predictions. However, the relationship between models at different scales has rarely been explored. In this study, based on the original microscopic social force model with a reactive optimal route choice strategy, we first derive kinetic equations at the mesoscopic level. By varying the interaction force in different scenarios, we then derive several continuum models at the macroscopic level. Finally, numerical examples are given to evaluate the behaviors of the social force model and our continuum models.
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Optics
Enhancing Volumetric Optical Chirality through 2D-3D Structural Design Evolution
Chia-Te Chang, Xiaoyan Zhou, Dmitrii Gromyko et al. (+6 more)
Circular dichroism (CD) sensing plays a pivotal role in probing molecular chirality in biomedical sciences. However, engineering superchiral electromagnetic fields that can reliably amplify the faint signatures of
chiral analytes remains profoundly challenging. Central to this difficulty is the need to balance two competing demands: maximizing the enhancement of
chiral fields while maintaining a sufficiently large interaction volume for effective molecular interrogation. Here, we introduce a figure of merit (FOM) that captures the enhancement and spatial coverage of superchiral fields to
benchmark different
chiral-field configurations. We examine the effects of helix-geometry
evolution on the FOM, including 2D to 3D chirality induction, winding-number escalation, helical-order enhancement, and transverse dilation. By tuning these structural degrees of freedom, the sensing volume can be enlarged without compromising the distribution and enhancement strength of fields. The optimized triple-strand helix markedly enhanced the analyte CD signal, yielding a FOM of 2.43*10^10 nm3, which surpassed prior 2D and 3D configurations by over an order of magnitude. The proposed FOM exhibits a strong linear correlation (R^2 = 0.9256) with the analyte CD signal. Our findings provide a systematic design framework for 3D
chiral structures and a robust metric for assessing their chiroptical sensing performance, particularly in scenarios involving clusters of randomly oriented small molecules or a large
chiral molecule.
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All authors Chia-Te Chang, Xiaoyan Zhou, Dmitrii Gromyko, John You En Chan, Lin Wu, Chia-Ming Yang, Sejeong Kim, Hongtao Wang, Joel K.W. Yang
Fluid Dynamics
Convective scalar transport from spherical drops in complex shearing flows
Sabarish V. Narayanan and Ganesh Subramanian
We calculate the scalar transport rate, as characterized by the Nusselt number\,($Nu$), from a neutrally buoyant spherical drop in an ambient linear flow, in the absence of inertia and in the strong convection limit. This corresponds to the regime $Re \ll 1, Pe \gg 1$, where $Re$ and $Pe$ are the Reynolds and Péclet numbers, and denote the ratios of the diffusive and convective time scales associated with momentum and scalar transport. The focus is on the exterior problem, with the drop-phase transport resistance assumed negligible, and the scalar field being a constant on the drop surface. While $Nu \propto Pe^{\frac{1}{2}}$ for $Pe \gg 1$, owing to the transport occurring across a thin $O(a Pe^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ boundary layer\,($a$ being the drop radius), the proportionality factor in this relation depends sensitively on ambient flow geometry via the surface-streamline
topology. Unlike a rigid sphere, a variety of surface-streamline
topologies can drive transport across the boundary layer at widely differing rates. In contrast to earlier studies which almost exclusively focus on axisymmetric ambient flows, we calculate $Nu$ for a pair of non-axisymmetric linear flow families: (i) 3D extensional flows with aligned vorticity and (ii) Axisymmetric extensional flows with inclined vorticity, using a non-orthogonal surface-streamline aligned coordinate system. Taken together, the families span the entire gamut of surface-streamline
topologies in the space of incompressible linear flows. Independent numerical simulations of the interior problem reveal the emergence of an $O(aPe^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ boundary layer beneath the drop surface, driven by chaotic streamlines, pointing to the possibility of $Nu \propto Pe^{\frac{1}{2}}$ for the conjugate problem, for sufficiently large $Pe$.
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Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Skillful Thunderstorm Forecasts Learned Directly from Observations
Jaideep Pathak, Mohammad Shoaib Abbas, Peter Harrington et al. (+16 more)
Nowcasting the
evolution of severe convective storms over the first few hours after observations are collected is critical for issuing timely, accurate warnings. Forecast accuracy is hindered because the variables that matter most, such as rain, hail, and lightning, are imperfectly represented by numerical model physics and are difficult to initialize correctly. Here we introduce StormScope, a computationally efficient generative
forecasting system that learns storm-scale
evolution directly from satellite, radar, and lightning observations over the continental United States with no numerical model used for training or initialization. StormScope produces coherent, physically plausible storm trajectories with well-calibrated uncertainty. Across more than 900 forecasts, it greatly exceeds the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's state-of-the-art forthcoming operational numerical modeling system in both deterministic and probabilistic skill through the 0-2-h nowcasting window. StormScope's skill for strong radar echoes exceeds the operational state of the art by approximately 75% and 45% at lead times of 30 min and 2 h, a relative improvement several times larger than machine learning has delivered for global medium-range
forecasting. Crucially, it also anticipates storms that develop after forecast initialization, establishing its utility beyond extrapolation of existing radar echoes. It likewise surpasses a leading AI nowcasting model for intense precipitation. Together, these results establish learning directly from observations as a route toward skillful, well-calibrated storm-scale forecasts that is unconstrained by the initialization and microphysics bottlenecks limiting numerical models and their emulators.
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All authors Jaideep Pathak, Mohammad Shoaib Abbas, Peter Harrington, Corey Potvin, Adam Clark, Patrick Skinner, Aayush Gupta, Tao Ge, Suman Ravuri, Corey Adams, Noah Brenowitz, Alberto Carpentieri, Jason Stock, Jussi Leinonen, Zeyuan Hu, Oliver Hennigh, Nicholas Geneva, Mike Pritchard, Dale Durran
Optics
Exceptional-point-like Sensing near Hermitian Critical Points
Jiang-Shan Tang, Long-Qi Xiao, Hao-Dong Wu et al. (+6 more)
A non-Hermitian system at an exceptional point (EP), a specific critical point (CP) associated with the parity-time symmetric phase transition, exhibits a sublinear response to perturbation and promise unprecedented sensitivity beyond the linear-response Hermitian sensors, so far operating at the diabolic points (DP). Despite great advancements, its sensitivity enhancement is fundamentally limited by the divergent Petermann factor, intrinsically rooted in the non-Hermitian eigenvector degeneracy, and practically by the system complexity. Here, we report the CP-resulting square-root response to the refractive index change and enhanced sensitivity in a simple
chiral Hermitian cavity without phase transitions. Because of the inherent eigenvector orthogonality, this CP-based Hermitian sensor exhibits an EP-like response and enhanced sensitivity, breaking the Petermann-factor limit of sensitivity in non-Hermitian counterparts. This work paves the way towards exploring the Hermitian CPs for ultrasensitive sensing outperforming both the EP- and DP-based sensors.
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All authors Jiang-Shan Tang, Long-Qi Xiao, Hao-Dong Wu, Yuwei Jing, Han Zhang, Ya-Ping Ruan, Wuming Liu, Yan-Qing Lu, Keyu Xia
Chemical Physics · Cross-listed from cond-mat.mtrl-sci
Assessment of the synthetic feasibility of hypothetical zeolite-like materials based on ZeoNet
Yachan Liu, Elaine Wu, Ping Yang et al. (+4 more)
A suite of classifiers was developed to distinguish experimentally synthesized zeolites from computationally predicted zeolite-like structures. Using convolutional neural networks applied to 3D volumetric grids, these classifiers achieve accuracies more than an order of magnitude higher than previous approaches based on
geometric filters or other machine learning methods. The best-performing model differentiates among hypothetical zeolites and those that can be synthesized as silicates, as aluminophosphates, or as both. This four-class classifier attains a false negative rate of 3.4% and a false positive rate of 0.4%, misidentifying only 1,207 of over 330,000 hypothetical structures–even though the hypothetical structures exhibit similar formation energies as real zeolites and chemically reasonable bond lengths and angles. We hypothesize that the ZeoNet representation captures essential structural features correlated with synthetic feasibility. In the absence of comprehensive physics-based criteria for synthesizability, the small subset of misclassified hypothetical structures likely represents promising candidates for future experimental synthesis.
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All authors Yachan Liu, Elaine Wu, Ping Yang, Aaron Sun, Subhransu Maji, Wei Fan, Peng Bai
Physics and Society · Cross-listed from q-fin.TR
Pregeometric Origins of Liquidity Geometry in Financial Order Books
João P. da Cruz
We propose a structural framework for the geometry of financial order books in which liquidity, supply, and demand are treated as emergent observables rather than primitive economic variables. The
market is modeled as an inflationary relational system without assumed metric, temporal, or price coordinates. Observable quantities arise only through projection, implemented here via spectral
embeddings of the graph
Laplacian. A one-dimensional projection induces a price-like coordinate, while the projected density defines liquidity profiles around the mid price. Under a minimal single-scale hypothesis – excluding intrinsic length scales beyond distance to the mid and finite visibility – we show that projected supply and demand are constrained to gamma-like functional forms. In discrete data, this prediction translates into integrated-gamma cumulative profiles. We test these results using high-frequency Level~II data for several U.S. equities and find robust agreement across assets and intraday windows. Explicit comparison with alternative cumulative models using information criteria demonstrates a systematic preference for the integrated-gamma geometry. A minimal simulation of inflationary relational dynamics reproduces the same structure without invoking
agent behavior or price formation mechanisms. These results indicate that key regularities of order-book liquidity reflect
geometric constraints induced by observation rather than detailed microstructural dynamics. Supplementary Material is available at the arXiv submission.
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Atomic and Molecular Clusters · Cross-listed from cond-mat.soft
Practical Considerations for Finite Concentrations Molecular Dynamics Simulations
Xiaoxu Ruan, Fabrice Roncoroni, David Prendergast et al. (+1 more)
Understanding concentrated electrolytes requires a theory that spans local hydration and mesoscale interfacial assembly. We present an integrated workflow-SCOPE-that combines (i) enhanced sampling focused on a single Li+ ion, (ii) reweighting of biased trajectories to recover
equilibrium microstate probabilities, and (iii) a chemical-potential correction that accounts for the limited reservoir of free water in finite simulation boxes. Applied to LiCl(aq) across 0.5-26 M and 283-313 K, this approach reveals a simple organizing principle: solvated ions dominate at low concentration; contact ion pairs emerge at intermediate strength; and aggregated Li-xCl clusters become most stable at the solubility limit. The resulting free-energy trends predict temperature-dependent solubility in close agreement with experiment and clarify the role of interfacial nucleation in precipitation. Beyond the simple LiCl(aq) salt considered here, SCOPE offers a transferable strategy for characterizing speciation and phase behavior in concentrated
liquid systems where collective coordinates and rare events dominate.
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All authors Xiaoxu Ruan, Fabrice Roncoroni, David Prendergast, Tod A Pascal
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Estimation of temperature and precipitation uncertainties using quantile neural networks
Andrew Brettin and Laure Zanna
Extreme events pose significant risks and are challenging to predict. Assessing
climate hazards requires placing quantitative constraints on geophysical fields under observable but fluctuating conditions. We propose a framework for estimating uncertainties – a ReLU-bias loss
quantile neural network (RBLQNN) – with two novel modifications to the loss function to enforce uniform
quantile accuracy and reduce degenerate predicted probability distributions. We evaluate the RBLQNN against other probabilistic baselines on a suite of
datasets: synthetic
datasets, observed daily temperature maxima from 1,501 NOAA Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) weather stations, and altimetry-observed precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). On synthetic
datasets, the RBLQNN accurately predicts conditional distributions where more restrictive methods like linear
quantile regression (LQR) or mean-variance estimation (MVE) neural networks fail, mitigates shortcomings of some other
quantile neural networks, and converges stably under a range of hyperparameters. When applied to daily temperature maxima, the RBLQNN reveals that temperature distributions are relatively well described by Gaussian statistics, though nonlinear dependencies on local sea level pressure and geopotential heights appear important. For precipitation statistics, the RBLQNN strongly outperforms both LQR and MVE baselines, demonstrating its capacity to capture highly nonlinear and non-Gaussian conditional distributions. The RBLQNN's performance across varied
datasets demonstrates it is a flexible and general approach for constraining uncertainties in geophysical quantities with nonlinear or non-Gaussian conditional dependencies.
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