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Saturday 10 October

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.NI

NAS Timers for Non-Terrestrial Networks: Current Standards and Directions

Response-supervision timers in the 5G Non-Access Stratum (NAS) bound the time allowed for signaling exchanges before retransmission or abnormal-case handling begins. In non-terrestrial networks, that interval can include satellite propagation, terrestrial transport, and processing by multiple core-network functions. Under current 3GPP specifications, the applicable timer value for satellite access is selected according to the satellite NG-RAN radio access technology (RAT) type. However, control paths within the same low Earth orbit (LEO) network can differ in propagation delay and processing load. This article reviews the relevant 3GPP timer semantics and traces the delay components covered by different timers through 5G registration. It organizes candidate refinements along two dimensions: configuration granularity and information scope. A registration case study illustrates the trade-off between avoiding premature timer expiry and recovering promptly from message loss. The article identifies the information and coordination that future specifications would need to address to support interoperable timer configuration.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Game-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning based Topology-Agnostic Defense for Virtual Power Plants

The rapid proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs) aggregated by virtual power plants (VPPs) elevates cybersecurity risk by expanding the attack surface. A coordinated cyberattack has the potential to disrupt distribution-system, bulk-system, and market operations. Existing cyberphysical defense strategies largely assume access to grid network models and operating conditions, which may not be available to third-party aggregators. This paper proposes a novel hybrid, perturbation-based cyber-physical defense for VPP-operated DERs that blends game-theoretic planning with model-free reinforcement learning (RL) under a Bayesian belief-update framework. Topology agnosticism is defined from the VPP information and implementation perspective: the VPP does not require access to the feeder topology, line parameters, switching configuration, or full system state. This work advances the state of the art through three contributions: (1) a multi-output Gaussian process with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for discrete attacker-type inference, probability of detection, and confidence of detection for modeling the belief distribution; (2) moment-matched Gaussian propagation of posterior beliefs across episodes; and (3) an RL policy that adaptively integrates Stackelberg leader (VPP) actions with exploration. Furthermore, we establish equilibrium existence and derive an episode-level closed-loop utility bound connecting attacker-belief uncertainty with GT-RL action alignment. Evaluations on IEEE 13- and 123-Bus feeders with DER portfolios demonstrate effective detection under attacker-model uncertainty and evaluated feeder re-configuration conditions, while requiring no explicit feeder-topology knowledge. Overall, the results indicate that combining bi-level game-theoretic planning, nonparametric Bayesian inference, and adaptive RL is a promising direction for VPP cybersecurity.
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All authors Pooja Algikar, Stefano Fenu, Kumarsinh Jhala, Siby Plathottam

Systems and Control

Co-Optimization of Scheduling, Control, and Incentivization of Electric Vehicles for Improving Power System Stability

We present a finite-horizon, greedy heuristic-based co-optimization and optimal control framework that jointly determines the optimized charging rates, charging times, and an optimal charging control law for electric vehicles (EVs) to improve both voltage stability and small-signal dynamic performance of a power distribution system. The proposed strategy encourages EV drivers to be flexible in choosing their charging rates and times through monetary incentivization under a fixed budget. The design is validated using the IEEE 33-bus distribution system model with ten EV charging stations (EVCSs). Results show that incentivizing drivers to settle for lower charging rates, implemented by a wait-and-save strategy, and rescheduling their charging times strategically can significantly improve the voltage stability index (VSI) of the system as well as the damping factors for the mid-frequency oscillation modes seen in the DC-link bus voltage.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from eess.SP

UAV-Mounted Hybrid RIS-Assisted ISAC-RSMA: Performance Analysis with Imperfect CSI and SIC

In integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) systems, strict sensing requirements can substantially constrain the transmit power available for communication. A hybrid reconfigurable intelligent surface (HRIS) with passive reflection and active amplification capabilities mounted on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) can enhance coverage and strengthen communication links in such power-limited regimes. Meanwhile, rate-splitting multiple access (RSMA) provides an effective transmission strategy for managing inter-user interference, particularly in dense multiuser wireless scenarios. Motivated by this, we analyze the performance of a UAV-mounted HRIS-assisted monostatic ISAC system employing RSMA scheme. We consider the imperfections in the channel state information and successive interference cancellation in the RSMA, which are inevitable in practical system implementations. We then derive highly accurate expressions for outage probability, ergodic rate, and throughput to evaluate communication performance over Nakagami-$m$ fading channels. These expressions reveal key insights into the diversity order and coding gain of the system in the high signal-to-noise ratio regime. To characterize the sensing performance, we derive expressions for the probability of detection, the probability of false alarm, and the Cramér-Rao lower bound. Numerical results validate the theoretical findings and highlight the performance gains of the proposed system over conventional multiple-access schemes and RIS-based systems.
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All authors Chandan Kumar Singh, Arthur Sousa de Sena, Smriti Uniyal, Deepak Kumar, Prabhat K. Upadhyay, Matti Latva-aho

Systems and Control

On the Structural Optimization of Industrial Control Systems Using Metaheuristic Algorithms

The paper addresses the synthesis of a cost-optimal hardware architecture of the automated process control system (APCS) for continuous processes. The problem is formalized as the search for a minimum-cost rooted tree of devices subject to constraints on the number of I/O channels, the types and number of communication interfaces, the information capacity of processors, the regulation time and the reliability. The signals are grouped by control rooms. The problem is NP-hard, and a hybrid method is proposed that combines a deterministic hierarchy construction with a modified ant colony optimization (ACO) for device-type selection, enhanced by an adaptive heuristic. On ten instances the method is compared with a genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), simulated annealing (SA) and CP-SAT over 30 runs each. By the best found cost the hybrid ACO outperforms GA, PSO and SA on all instances with more than 100 IOs (by 14-38 %) and runs 9-14 times faster. By the median cost, however, the deterministic-greedy baselines are more reliable (GA attains the best Friedman rank) because the cost of the ACO runs is highly variable. All differences are confirmed by the Friedman and Wilcoxon tests. The method targets the early-design search for the cheapest feasible architecture and synthesizes one within minutes at industrial scale (A up to 1086).
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Compositional Average Velocity Modeling for Efficient Diffusion Offline Reinforcement Learning

Diffusion-based policies have recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for offline reinforcement learning, but their reliance on multi-step denoising introduces substantial computational overhead and requires backpropagation through time during training, limiting scalability and practical deployment. In this work, we propose Instant Flow Q-Learning (InsQL), a single-step generative policy learning framework that retains the expressive capacity of diffusion models while eliminating iterative sampling and BPTT. InsQL builds on the flow-matching perspective of diffusion policies, but replaces marginal velocity parameterization with average-velocity modeling and introduces a principled compositional mechanism, yielding a theoretically grounded objective that learns average velocity consistently across scales. This formulation provides a direct noise-to-action mapping and enables single-step action generation. InsQL further unifies compositional average-velocity modeling with behavior-regularized actor–critic optimization in a single framework, requiring only a single policy network and avoiding distillation, multi-stage procedures, and Jacobian computations during training. At inference time, actions are generated in a single forward pass and can be refined via value-guided candidate selection to improve performance. Extensive experiments on standard offline RL benchmarks and real-world robotic manipulation tasks show that InsQL matches or surpasses state-of-the-art diffusion-based methods while substantially reducing both training and inference time. Overall, these results establish compositional average-velocity modeling as an efficient and scalable alternative to multi-step generative policies for offline RL.
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All authors Thanh Nguyen, Abu Hanif Muhammad Syarubany, Hwanhee Kim, Chang D. Yoo

Systems and Control

Relining or Replacement: How Timing, Costs, and Infrastructure Shape U.S. Primary Steel Decarbonization

Imminent blast furnace relinings create a consequential investment window for U.S. primary steel decarbonization. Using plant-level capacity planning and stochastic operations modeling, we quantify the costs, infrastructure, and fiscal requirements to transition legacy blast furnace sites to direct reduction under supply-side incentives. Under baseline assumptions, post-subsidy premiums above average blast furnace costs, including relining, are 272 to 427 dollars per ton of steel for near-zero-emission hydrogen-based direct reduction and 115 to 181 dollars for natural-gas-based production. Representative facilities producing two million tons of steel annually at legacy locations require approximately 4 to 6.5 and 0.7 to 1.1 GW of renewable generation and battery storage, respectively. This translates to 65 and 12 GW across the unrelined fleet for hydrogen- and natural gas-based pathways, respectively. These findings connect replacement timing to costs, infrastructure, and public support, motivating a sequenced transition through clean-powered natural-gas-based direct reduction to avert blast furnace relining, reduce emissions by 57 percent relative to blast furnaces, and preserve options for deeper decarbonization through hydrogen substitution or carbon capture.
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Systems and Control

An Adaptive Cyber-Resilient Framework for P2P Energy Trading under Optimal Stealthy Attacks

The increasing adoption of peer to peer energy trading has enabled prosumers to actively participate in decentralized energy markets. However, the growing dependence of P2P energy markets on communication infrastructures and distributed coordination mechanisms introduces an expanded cyberattack surface, enabling sophisticated adversaries to manipulate market interactions while remaining concealed from conventional detection mechanisms. This paper first designs an optimal stealthy attack that maximizes economic disruption of the MicroGrids, while preserving the apparent convergence characteristics of the ADMM based market-clearing process. To detect such attacks, a Mahalanobis Boosting detector is developed using market layer features to effectively capture inter feature dependencies and distinguish compromised updates from normal market operation. An adaptive rho based mitigation strategy is then introduced to limit the propagation of compromised information and restore robust market operation once an attack is flagged. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through comprehensive case studies, achieving an attack detection accuracy of 98.49% while the proposed mitigation strategy reduces the operating cost by approximately 18.43% compared to the unmitigated attack case. The proposed approach provides a practical pathway toward trustworthy and cyber-secure distributed P2P energy trading systems.
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Systems and Control

Decision-Focused Learning for Optimal Battery Scheduling Under Load and Photovoltaic Power Uncertainty in Microgrids

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources in microgrids demands accurate day-ahead forecasting to support optimal battery energy storage system (BESS) scheduling. Yet the conventional predict-then-optimize paradigm trains forecasters on statistical accuracy metrics that are agnostic to the asymmetric and time-varying cost impacts of forecast errors. This work proposes a decision-focused learning (DFL) framework that trains gated recurrent unit forecasters for both load demand and photovoltaic generation directly on the downstream operational cost of a two-stage energy management system, where day-ahead BESS commitments are fixed prior to real-time balancing. Gradients are backpropagated from the real-time operational cost through both optimization stages to the forecaster weights via implicit differentiation, enabling the forecasters to internalize the penalty structure of the scheduling problem. The framework is validated on the MG2Lab experimental microgrid testbed at Politecnico di Milano across two operational scenarios of increasing grid constraint and eight forecasting configurations comprising single-source and combined-forecaster settings. Results illustrate that the DFL-trained pipeline reduces operational cost by 3.78% under normal grid conditions and by 30.60% under grid-constrained conditions relative to the accuracy- optimized baseline, while nearly eliminating load shedding events. Notably, the DFL forecasters exhibit higher statistical errors than their accuracy-trained counterparts yet achieve consistently lower operational costs, confirming that forecast accuracy and decision quality do not share a monotonic relationship in constrained microgrid scheduling.
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All authors Marios Saleptsis, Antoine Lesage-Landry, Marco Mussetta, Sonia Leva

Systems and Control

Defending Consensus-Based Cooperative Sensing Against Conformity-Driven Byzantine Attacks in 6G UAV Swarm Networks

In integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) enabled six-generation (6G) networks, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarms increasingly rely on consensus-based cooperative sensing: each node iteratively exchanges and fuses decisions with its neighbors to approach a global picture of the environment, supporting the high-reliability, low-latency inference demanded by mission-critical tasks. Yet this very mechanism of conformity becomes the lever of Byzantine attacks. By exploiting the update rule, malicious nodes manufacture a false consensus that lures honest nodes into drifting away from their true observations round after round, so that a normal node's actual error probability evolves dynamically and rises far above its intrinsic sensing error. Conventional fusion models, which assume node errors are fixed and independent, are therefore severely mismatched. This article argues for a different defensive perspective: instead of hunting for bad nodes, we seek to understand how good nodes turn bad, characterizing the inducement dynamics with evolutionary game theory and handing this law to the fusion center so that it can dynamically correct the true error level of normal nodes. Simulations show that the approach sustains near-perfect situational inference across a wide range of attack intensities and network sizes, while naturally supporting low latency decisions. We further discuss several open challenges on the path toward secure ISAC-6G swarm sensing.
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All authors Ruixing Ren, Junhui Zhao, He Fang, Xiaoke Sun, Jiamin Li, Pengcheng Zhu, Dongming Wang

Systems and Control

Shifted-Chart Composition for Horizon-Optimal Time-Varying LQR

Horizon optimization in finite-horizon LQR treats the horizon $T$ as a decision variable and adds a penalty $wT$ to the cost. Recent composition-based methods evaluate all candidate horizons in $O(Nn^3)$, instead of the $O(N^2n^3)$ of one Riccati recursion per horizon, but they track the inverse cost-to-go $P^{-1}$ and therefore require every stage and terminal cost to be positive definite, whereas LQR requires only positive semidefiniteness. This excludes costs that leave some states unpenalized. In this work, we track instead the shifted inverse $\widehat{P}_k=(P_k+cI)^{-1}$, the inverse coordinate after a symplectic shear of the state-costate variables. Its domain contains every positive semidefinite Riccati matrix, and $P_k=\widehat{P}_k^{-1}-cI$ recovers the Riccati solution. We show that the shift can be absorbed into the stage coefficients of the inverse-coordinate composition, so the $O(Nn^3)$ search carries over, exact in exact arithmetic, subject to invertibility conditions. These hold for all small $c$ when the dynamics contract the unpenalized directions, fail for at most finitely many $c$ outside a degenerate case, and are certified per horizon at run time. In our experiments, diagonal loading $Q_k+\varepsilon I$ either left cost errors several orders of magnitude above those of the shifted chart or, for small fixed $\varepsilon$, selected the wrong horizon. The shifted chart with a fixed default $c$ selected the correct horizon on all tested instances, reporting long horizons as uncertified in one stress case.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.RO

AnyRank: Reliable Anytime Policy Ranking via Sequential Testing

Due to the high cost of hardware experiments, robot policies are predominantly evaluated by comparing their empirical performance on a limited number of hardware trials. However, finite-sample statistical uncertainty can lead to erroneous conclusions, especially when ranking multiple policies using a fixed batch of evaluation data. We propose AnyRank: a sequential method for multi-policy ranking that (i) adaptively allocates trials to hard-to-separate policies, (ii) provides (partial) rankings at any stopping time while bounding the probability of an incorrect ranking, and (iii) optionally exploits prior information to prioritize hardware evaluations more efficiently. This prior information could be informed from expert intuition, a small set of held-out hardware evaluations, or from policy rollouts in a simulator or an action-conditioned video world model. Notably, the prior can be imperfect; while a strong prior can provide efficiency gains on hardware, any inaccuracies in prior policy rankings do not invalidate the statistical assurances of AnyRank. We achieve the aforementioned properties through novel theoretical contributions that combine sequential testing with multiple-hypothesis graphical testing approaches. Experiments in simulation and real-world policy evaluation benchmarks show that AnyRank requires up to 50% fewer hardware evaluations compared to existing statistically rigorous approaches, while guarding against the incorrect rankings produced by heuristic methods used by state-of-the-art benchmarks.
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All authors Apurva Badithela, David Snyder, Tenny Yin, Jade Sceats, George Pappas, Nikolai Matni, Masha Itkina, Haruki Nishimura, Anirudha Majumdar

Systems and Control

Encrypted collision avoidance maneuver via variational optimization

We propose an encrypted collision avoidance maneuver (CAM) design protocol using homomorphic encryption (HE) that enables operators to outsource CAM design to an untrusted server without revealing their private covariance. To this end, we reformulate the constrained CAM optimization as a sampling based estimation problem via a variational approach, so that the private covariance dependent terms can be efficiently evaluated under HE. The protocol requires only a single round of communication, and experiments on six real-world conjunction data messages demonstrate improved feasibility and reduced fuel consumption compared with CAMs designed using public covariance.
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All authors Yeongjun Jang, Jihoon Suh, Kenshiro Oguri, Takashi Tanaka

Systems and Control

Spatial-Temporal Hybrid Path Planning for Multi-UAV Methane Emission Rate Quantification

Accurate emission-rate quantification of methane point sources is essential for inventory verification and leak detection. UAV-borne sensing provides high-resolution, near-source measurements, but existing quantification methods mostly follow a predefined trajectory and rely on a single UAV. Building on a source receptor matrix (SRM) estimator and empirical observability Gramian (EMGR)-based path planning, this paper proposes a spatial-temporal hybrid path planning strategy for multi-UAV methane emission rate quantification. Measurements are time-averaged, and the forward Gaussian plume model is calibrated against a filament-based plume simulator (MOABS) to reduce model mismatch. Cooperating UAVs first spread out spatially to locate the source quickly, then switch to sequentially retracing a leader trajectory with a time lag to reduce quantification variance. Simulations show that the spatial stage localizes the source markedly faster than a single-UAV baseline, the temporal stage yields the lowest variance but converges slowly, and the proposed hybrid strategy converges substantially faster than the purely temporal strategy while matching its steady-state accuracy, with a narrower error band than the purely spatial strategy. A window-length study further shows that longer time-averaging windows exhibit diminishing returns, justifying the balance between spatial coverage and temporal averaging.
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Friday 9 October

Systems and Control

Deep learning from a control vantage point

This article offers an overview of recent developments in deep learning from a control vantage point. It reviews several classes of models including feedforward and residual neural networks, transformers, large-language models, and selective state space models while explaining how control theory plays an important role in understanding their training, properties, or architecture design. The article explains how residual neural networks can be interpreted as the discretization of a continuous-time control system thereby enabling the use of control theoretic techniques for its analysis. To illustrate the power of this bridge between control and deep learning, two technical results are discussed: 1) the ability of a residual neural network to approximate arbitrary continuous functions is a non-standard controllability problem that can be solved using geometric nonlinear control and 2) transformers, the key architectural component of most large language-models, can be seen the discretization of a consensus algorithm and thus large language-models exhibit consensus. Another point of contact between control theory and deep learning is the connection between backpropagation, the algorithm used to train neural networks, and optimal control. The article addresses how the older connection between these problems, established in the 80's using discrete-time models can be reconciled with the more recent approach using continuous-time models. Several open problems and directions for future research are discussed, including selective state-space models, a recent class of models inspired by the models used in control.
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All authors Álvaro Rodríguez Abella, João Pedro Silvestre, Bahman Gharesifard, Paulo Tabuada

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.LG

History, Adaptation, and Hidden Gain: Two Prospective Tests of Learned Predictive Control in a Synthetic Neural Population

We study learned one-step predictive control of a synthetic population of 64 leaky integrate-and-fire neurons whose light sensitivity is scaled by a hidden factor s, using two prospective confirmations on plants simulated only after the analysis was frozen. In the first (50 plants, 11 conditions), removing the 200-ms input-output history substantially worsened a parameter-count-matched neural predictor at low and moderate gain (s = 0.6, 0.8; RMSE rose by 2.47 Hz at s = 0.6, 97.5% CI 2.43-2.51). In secondary comparisons, recursively adapted ARX had the lowest mean error of the deployable controllers in 10 of 11 conditions, tuned PI with anti-windup matched or beat the network for s >= 0.7, and training for 10,000 rather than 900 epochs lowered prediction error but worsened control. Development work suggested the network's learned action sensitivity did not track the hidden gain. A second protocol (50 new plants, 9 sensitivities, 2 noise levels) confirmed three pre-specified predictions at the primary noise level. Re-estimating a single multiplicative input gain recovered 87% (95% CI 86-88%) of the benefit of full adaptive ARX. Supplying that online estimate to the network as an extra input reduced high-gain tracking error by 1.84 Hz [1.81, 1.88]. Longer training worsened the plain network by 1.09 Hz but improved the gain-input network by 1.07 Hz, a differential of 2.16 Hz [2.13, 2.20]. Under high process noise (sigma = 2.0) the effects shrank to about 0.04 Hz or less and gain-only adaptation recovered only 24% of the adaptive-ARX benefit. In this synthetic plant, at the primary noise level, one-parameter online gain estimation accounts for most of the gap between a history-based network and full adaptive ARX, and for its prediction-control mismatch.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.AI

ConicFlow: constrained Inference-time optimal control for flow matching models

We propose ConicFlow, which frames constrained sampling from a flow matching model at inference time as an optimal control problem that balances deviation from the pretrained trajectory against reward, subject to hard terminal constraints. We discretize this problem and adapt receding-horizon control, optimizing only a short window of the trajectory at each step for computational tractability. We address the resulting sequence of receding-horizon subproblems with a receding-horizon primal-dual algorithm. Its dual multipliers capture the difficulty of satisfying each constraint and are refined throughout sampling, steering generation toward feasible final samples. We further propose a terminal-estimate variant that avoids accumulating local truncation errors by evaluating the reward and constraints at the predicted terminal point rather than at the end of the current horizon. Under standard regularity assumptions, we establish finite-horizon guarantees on suboptimality. Under convex-affine structure, we derive a sharper bound that scales linearly with omitted horizon length, and we show that the terminal-estimate variant is provably tighter when the flow dynamics change slowly. Experiments in both low- and high-dimensional settings with a recent large-scale flow matching model show that ConicFlow achieves high reward and strong constraint satisfaction while deviating less from the pretrained flow than recent baselines.
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All authors Shervin Khalafi, Kasra Fallah, Sung Cho, Dongsheng Ding, James Anderson, Alejandro Ribeiro

Systems and Control

Zero-Crossing Time Lower Bounds for the Homogeneous Super-Twisting Algorithm

High-frequency switching and chattering are well-known problems in sliding-mode control. Although the super-twisting algorithm produces a continuous control input, the sliding variable may still cross zero repeatedly near the sliding manifold. This paper studies how fast these crossings can occur and whether they can accumulate in finite time for the scalar homogeneous super-twisting algorithm. Two lower bounds on the time required to return to zero are derived, together with a bound on the time needed to complete a full excursion. These results give minimum separation times and upper bounds on the number of crossings associated with excursions above a prescribed amplitude. Although zero crossings may accumulate in finite time, the amplitudes of the complete excursions considered here must vanish and satisfy a summability condition. Thus, crossings associated with excursions above any prescribed nonzero amplitude cannot accumulate in finite time. When the perturbation-rate bound is zero, the estimates recover the scaling imposed by homogeneity. For the classical super-twisting algorithm, the square-root scaling also holds for nonzero perturbation-rate bounds. Numerical simulations illustrate the results.
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Systems and Control

Large-Scale Data Center Integration in Power Systems: Uncertainty and Multi-Scale Variation

Hyperscale artificial intelligence (AI) data centers are emerging as a structurally new class of electricity demand. Unlike conventional loads, they materialize as spatially concentrated, transmission-level point loads with rapid deployment timelines and converter-dominated dynamics. Their integration is governed by two defining properties: forecast uncertainty in load realization and multi-scale temporal variation spanning sub-seconds to planning horizons. We develop a unified framework that links reliability and affordability to these dimensions through a four-quadrant structure: (reliability, affordability) $\times$ (uncertainty, variation), which integrates probabilistic resource adequacy, generation and transmission expansion, operational security, and market design. Measured traces from a public generative-AI workload dataset show strongly tonal GPU power spectra rather than smooth broadband behavior: harmonic combs at the training-step cadence, and a distinct sub-second periodicity in inference. Across these traces the dominant variance band shifts with workload type (seconds for training and offline inference; tens of seconds and longer for online inference). We report this as a characterization of the measured workloads rather than a universal signature, and take it to indicate that such loads warrant a spectral description rather than a peak-demand one. These signatures directly affect reserve requirements, ramping products, voltage stability, ride-through performance, and harmonic interactions in converter-rich grids. Taken together, the analytical framework and empirical results establish a system-level basis for assessing the reliability and cost implications of large AI data center integration across planning and operational horizons.
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All authors Le Xie, Dongjoo Kim, Qian Zhang, Grant Ruan, Paul L. Joskow

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from math.OC

Intrinsic Contraction Theory and Stabilization of Probability Measures on the Wasserstein Space

Deterministic flows can contract Wasserstein distances between probability laws without being contractive in point-state space. We develop a differential contraction theory for pushforward flows on forward-invariant subsets of the 2-Wasserstein space that quotients out the gauge freedom of the continuity equation. Weighted Helmholtz-Hodge decomposition and the Wasserstein contingent cone define the weighted horizontal tangent cone (whtc). Requiring the contraction quadratic form to be nonpositive only on the whtc yields the Intrinsic Wasserstein Contraction Condition (IWCC), which generalizes the classical contraction LMI and recovers it on Dirac measures. An almost-everywhere Euler approximation based on the superposition principle and Banach-valued Lebesgue differentiation theorem proves that IWCC is sufficient for intrinsic Wasserstein contraction. Law contraction without point-state contraction is illustrated by a rotationally symmetric shear example. Finally, a new comparison lemma yields an incremental Wasserstein ISS theorem; for Brockett's integrator, we prove exponential stabilization of a class of axisymmetric laws to the uniform law on a circle via a smooth feedback.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.NI

Goal-Oriented Bundle Management and Flow Control for Deep-Space Communications via Reinforcement Learning

Deep-space communications operate under intermittent connectivity, long propagation delays, and relay storage constraints. In such networks, the Bundle Protocol enables store-carry-forward communication, requiring relay nodes to manage limited storage and scarce contact opportunities. Relay-side scheduling and dropping decisions are inherently goal-oriented: transmission resources should be allocated to bundles most valuable to downstream mission objectives. Conventional schedulers, such as FIFO, do not explicitly optimize task utility and may provide unfair service across heterogeneous planetary sources. This paper presents a closed-loop modeling and learning framework for relay-side bundle and flow management in a contact-driven deep-space network, where lunar and Martian updates are forwarded through a shared-buffer relay to Earth. We quantify destination-side information freshness using excess age $\Delta_i^e(t)=[\Delta_i(t)-d_i(t)]^+$, where $\Delta_i(t)$ denotes the Age of Information of source $i$ and $d_i(t)$ is a source-dependent delay baseline. Based on this metric, we define a goal-oriented loss that supports source-dependent nonlinear penalties, allowing prioritization according to mission relevance. We formulate relay control as a constrained semi-Markov decision process (CSMDP) and solve it using masked Lagrangian Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). Feasibility-aware action masking restricts transmissions to bundles that can complete within the remaining contact window. DTNSim simulations indicate improved age-based utility and inter-flow fairness compared with baseline schedulers. The proposed framework jointly optimizes relay-side bundle scheduling, dropping, and flow control under contact-driven dynamics with explicit fairness considerations across heterogeneous sources.
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All authors Sajjad Baghaee, Aimin Li, Shanmugarajan Balasubramanian, Elif Uysal

Systems and Control

Information-Weighted Distributed Kalman Filter for Multi-Target Tracking over Switching Sensor Networks

Target tracking over wide areas using a network of sensor agents is a challenging problem when agents have limited sensing coverage and communication topologies vary over time. Existing distributed filtering approaches commonly assume that each agent, or at least one of its neighbors, can directly observe the target, and further rely on fixed network topologies, global network parameters, or multiple consensus rounds per time step. These requirements limit their applicability in wide-area network deployments. In this paper, we propose an Information-Weighted Distributed Kalman Filter (IWDKF) that relaxes these assumptions through a weighted-consensus mechanism applicable to arbitrary switching topologies satisfying joint connectivity. The proposed approach requires no prior knowledge of global network properties and limits communication overhead to a single consensus exchange per time step, while enabling information fusion even when some agents lack direct target measurements. The weighted-consensus covariance matrix is shown to remain positive definite, and the resulting consensus update is proven to maintain estimate consistency. It is also established that the proposed weighting strategy preserves the asymptotic agreement property of the underlying consensus protocol under joint connectivity. Numerical simulations of a multi-target tracking scenario involving a network of sensor agents demonstrate the improved estimation accuracy of the proposed IWDKF under both fixed and switching network topologies. The performance of the proposed filter is close to that of the centralized Kalman filter, and is compared with three existing distributed filters.
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Systems and Control

Learning-Based Power Flow Estimation with Sparse PMU Deployment in Power Systems

Accurate monitoring of power flow is fundamental to the secure and reliable operation of modern power systems. Existing data-driven power flow estimation methods typically assume that synchronized measurements are available at every bus, requiring extensive deployment of phasor measurement units (PMUs). Such dense sensing infrastructures substantially increase installation, communication, and maintenance costs. This paper proposes a learning-based framework that minimizes the number of installed PMUs while maintaining high-accuracy systemwide power flow estimation. Instead of relying on measurements from all buses, the proposed method identifies an informative subset of buses whose synchronized measurements are sufficient to accurately reconstruct branch power flow across the network. To this end, a neural network is developed to learn the nonlinear relationship between PMU measurements and system-wide power flows, and multiple PMU deployment scenarios are evaluated to quantify the trade-off between measurement availability and estimation accuracy. The results enable utilities to identify cost-effective PMU placement strategies that balance deployment cost and prediction performance. Case studies on the IEEE 30-bus test system demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly reduces the number of required PMUs while maintaining accurate power flow estimation.
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All authors Van-Hai Bui, Quang Manh Hoang, Akhtar Hussain, Wencong Su

Systems and Control

Direct Vector Field Guidance for Path Following

This paper presents a path-following guidance framework for a turn-rate-constrained unmanned aerial vehicle (UAVs). The proposed guidance strategy uses commanded course angle as a tanh-hyperbolic shaping function of the lateral deviation from the desired path. Stability characteristics illustrating asymptotic convergence to the desired path are established using Lyapunov analysis. Analytical expressions for the turn-rate and corresponding maximum turn-rate bound are derived, enabling direct gain selection for a turn-rate-limited vehicle. Numerical simulations are performed for straight-line following scenarios under both ideal and non-ideal initial heading conditions. Furthermore, a comparative study against representative arctan-, arcsine-, and arccos-based vector-field guidance laws is conducted using analytically feasible gains selected from their respective turn-rate bounds. Comparative numerical results demonstrate the proposed formulation achieves reliable boundary convergence while maintaining smooth steering behavior and a compact analytical gain-design framework.
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All authors Amit Shivam, Nikhil Kumar Singh, Luís Tiago Paiva, Fernando A.C.C. Fontes

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from math.DS

Asymptotic Analysis of Discrete-Time Self-Attention Dynamics in Transformers

In machine learning, a self-attention dynamics describes the attention mechanism of transformers, and is obtained treating the layer index of a transformer as time index. Even though naturally discrete-time, this dynamical system is most often studied in continuous-time. Scope of this paper is to provide a thorough investigation of the discrete-time version of the self-attention dynamics: a complete classification of its equilibria is given, and their stability properties are studied, in both the single-head and the multihead case. We show that in both cases the main attractor of the dynamics is a consensus equilibrium aligned with the principal eigenvector of the value matrix (in the single-head case, a corresponding matrix of weights in the multihead case), even though other locally asymptotically stable bipartite equilibria can be show to exist at least in the single-head situation. The behavior is confirmed by looking at the learned weight matrices of a real transformer.
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Systems and Control

Hierarchical Graph Neural Network for Probabilistic Power Flow with Grid Topology Contingencies

Data-driven surrogates reduce the nonlinear solves required for probabilistic power flow (PPF), but models tied to a fixed bus–branch graph often generalize poorly when outages change electrical coupling. This paper proposes a topology-decomposition-driven hierarchical bidirectional graph neural network (TDD–HBGNN) for PPF under unseen topologies. For each realized topology, the network is decomposed into fundamental topological units (FTUs), dynamically homogeneous voltage clusters (DHVCs), and a core backbone sub-grid (CBSG), with equivalent-admittance representations preserving electrical ports between units. A sensitivity-based linear prior captures the first-order voltage-magnitude and phase-angle response, while the HBGNN learns topology-dependent nonlinear residuals. Impedance- and uncertainty-aware bottom-up aggregation condenses local perturbations, while mode-modulated top-down broadcasting restores system context at buses. We evaluate our approach on the IEEE 118-bus and Polish 2746-bus systems under unseen N–1 and N–2 contingencies against six baseline methods. Compared with these methods, TDD–HBGNN achieves 2.47–4.20-fold lower all-bus phase-angle errors and lower phase-angle errors in every held-out event. Its voltage-magnitude advantage is concentrated near the outaged branches, where paired error ratios reach 1.75–2.58 on the IEEE system and 1.87–1.97 in Polish N–2 events. All system–contingency–baseline comparisons favor TDD–HBGNN in joint voltage–angle error. Moreover, shared hierarchical operators keep the model size at 0.658 million parameters across both grids and yield 0.161–1.793~ms forward latency per probabilistic case. These results demonstrate system-wide angular accuracy, outage-local voltage accuracy, and parameter-efficient scaling across unseen topologies.
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All authors Jinbao Wang, Jun Liu, Shiliang Zhang, Xuehui Ma, Lin Yan, Haolin Liu, Sabita Maharjan

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from math.OC

A Scalable Learned Iterative Solver for Nonlinear MPC via Temporal Decomposition

Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) can be applied to large nonlinear systems with complex objectives while enforcing constraints, but the cost of solving the underlying optimization problems limits real-time application for systems with fast dynamics or many states. Neural networks can reduce this online cost by approximating the control law, but may violate constraints and typically require many precomputed optimizer solutions for training. The learning-based iterative solver for constrained optimization (LISCO) instead learns to predict primal-dual steps toward satisfaction of the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions through self-supervised training without precomputed solutions, but its dense, monolithic architecture grows with the prediction horizon. We remove this horizon dependence by exploiting the temporal structure of the problem in the solver architecture, which makes the network size independent of the horizon while leaving the training loss and the solver iteration unchanged. A closed-loop resampling strategy further aligns the training distribution with closed-loop operation at no additional sampling cost. On an economic NMPC benchmark of a CSTR cascade, the proposed solver scales to larger problems than monolithic LISCO and achieves median speedups of up to a factor of four over IPOPT. In closed loop, it achieves comparable control performance to IPOPT with no observed constraint violations.
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Systems and Control

Adaptive Incentive Design for Linear-Quadratic Dynamic Games: No-Regret Social Coordination

Incentives can align private interests with collective goals, but their design becomes intertwined with learning when agents' preferences are unknown. This paper develops an adaptive incentive-design framework for multi-agent linear-quadratic dynamic games, where a system planner can simultaneously learn agents' private preferences and steer their strategic behavior towards the social optimum. To this end, we first characterize the complete family of affine incentives that implement the social optimum as the unique open-loop Nash equilibrium while ensuring exact budget balance. When agents' preferences are unknown, we develop an online algorithm to estimate their preference parameters and establish strong consistency of the estimates under a weak trajectory-dependent excitation condition, without requiring persistent excitation or i.i.d. trajectories. We then integrate this estimator into an active-learning incentive mechanism that combines certainty-equivalent coordination with decaying random probing. We prove that the probing generates sufficient information through the agents' equilibrium responses and the system dynamics, ensuring consistent preference learning from the resulting closed-loop trajectories. We show that the induced trajectories converge almost surely to their socially optimal counterparts, while cumulative social-cost regret relative to the full-information oracle and cumulative net-budget imbalance grow sublinearly. Simulations of a transboundary pollution game demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
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All authors Lantian Zhang, Yibei Li, Georgios Vasileiou, Lihua Xie, Silun Zhang

Systems and Control

Minimum-Energy Control for Stochastic Linear Systems

The open-loop minimum-energy control (MEC) problem asks for control inputs that minimize the control energy while ensuring the terminal state reaches a desired value. In this paper, we study the open-loop MEC problem for stochastic linear time-invariant systems. We consider a variety of stochastic constraints that enforce the terminal error to be small, and show that Stochastic MEC (SMEC) problem can be formulated as a QCQP. We obtain the optimal solution for SMEC and show that it generalizes the well-known Deterministic MEC problem by introducing novel stochastic variants of controllability and Gramian matrices. Finally, we show that there exists a fundamental lower bound on the optimal control energy which cannot be overcome by increasing the time horizon of the problem.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.LG

In-Context Learning for System Identification: Probabilistic Formulation, Long-Sequence Handling, and Benchmark Validation

Traditional system identification typically involves two steps: initially, training data is processed to estimate a model of the system of interest; then, the model is used to predict outputs for new input queries. In contrast, recent in-context learning approaches learn a meta model that maps directly from training data and query inputs to outputs in a zero-shot fashion, bypassing explicit model estimation. This approach leverages a meta model trained offline, on large sets of synthetically generated data, to emulate the behavior of a system identification algorithm. In this work, we advance this meta-learning framework for system identification in three directions. First, we develop a unified probabilistic meta-identification architecture that combines a Transformer-based encoder-decoder with tailored mechanisms for handling long training sequences, enabling calibrated predictions over long horizons. Second, we show how a pre-trained meta model can act as an uncertainty-aware synthetic data generator for classical system identification, providing task-specific data that regularize parametric models when real data are scarce. Third, we systematically evaluate the framework on standard nonlinear system identification benchmarks and on a challenging out-of-distribution scenario, demonstrating competitive accuracy with state-of-the-art methods and strong generalization, including cases where input-only adaptation is sufficient to handle significant distribution shifts.
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All authors Matteo Rufolo, Dario Piga, Filippo Pura, Marco Forgione