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Tuesday 9 June

Statistics Theory

Fixed-Threshold One-Bit Toeplitz Covariance Estimation under Sparse-Ruler Sampling

We estimate the Toeplitz covariance matrix of a centered Gaussian distribution from data that are both coarsely quantized and sparsely sampled. Only the coordinates of a sparse ruler are recorded, and each recorded value is kept as a single bit: the sign of its comparison with a fixed threshold. Such data arise in low-precision sensing front ends and sparse sensor arrays. Because the threshold is nonzero, every bit has a common mean. Each bit is also reused across many of the products that build the covariance, so one bit's error enters many of them. Centering removes the shared error. We prove a Gaussian variance contraction theorem for products of a centered, bounded nonlinearity of a Gaussian vector, the non-smooth one-bit sign included; it sets each lag's variance by how well the ruler covers that lag. The resulting estimator needs neither the signal scale nor the bit mean in advance, since the nonzero threshold makes both identifiable from the marginal bits. A matching minimax lower bound shows the resulting coverage rate is optimal up to constants over a neighborhood of white noise; the bound holds even for the unquantized real-valued samples, so one-bit quantization costs only a constant factor.
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Machine Learning (Statistics) · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Limitations of Learning Tanh Neural Networks with Finite Precision

We investigate limitations of learning $\tanh$ neural networks from point evaluations under finite-precision computations and $L^p$ accuracy guarantees, building on Berner, Grohs, and Voigtländer (2023). Our approach is based on a novel construction of sharply localized bump functions via iterated $\tanh$ activations. Using this mechanism, we show that, in a finite-precision setting, no adaptive randomized algorithm based on $m$ samples can achieve a convergence rate higher than the Monte Carlo rate $O(m^{-1/p})$ in the $L^p$ norm, unless the sampling budget grows exponentially with the size of the network parameters and architecture. The results reveal fundamental limitations imposed by finite precision on the learnability of classes containing localized bump functions, extending previous results for ReLU networks to the $\tanh$ setting.
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Machine Learning (Statistics) · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Flexible Kernels for Protein Property Prediction

Despite its importance to applications in protein design, predicting protein properties like binding affinity and thermostability from sparse experimental data remains a significant challenge. Accordingly, we introduce a class of sequence kernels that exploit evolutionary substitution matrices as well as local linearity and demonstrate that the resulting Gaussian processes provide data-efficient models of protein property landscapes, frequently outperforming alternatives that rely on foundation model embeddings. Furthermore–by learning what are in effect structure-aware substitution matrices–we show that our kernels can readily incorporate structural information from foundation models. We demonstrate that these structure-conditioned kernels are well suited to multi-task learning across multiple protein property landscapes and can decisively outperform local supervised learning methods.
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All authors Martin Jankowiak, Yerdos Ordabayev, Rudraksh Tuwani, Henry N. Ward, Hunter Nisonoff, James M. McFarland, Gevorg Grigoryan

Machine Learning (Statistics)

Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts

Conformal predictive systems (CPS) output calibrated bands of CDFs under exchangeability. We extend generalized CPS to non-exchangeable settings by encoding distributional shifts through observation-specific permutation weights. This yields shift-aware predictive systems that remain valid whenever the test point is, conditionally on the unordered sample, a weighted draw from the observed atoms. Since such weights are typically estimated, we introduce weight-uncertainty boxes and construct robust CPS envelopes with finite-sample or asymptotic confidence guarantees. We derive efficient computation for conformity-measure CPS, conformal binning, and conformal isotonic distributional regression. Experiments under covariate shift and feedback-driven biomolecular design show calibrated predictive bands that widen under stronger shifts and tighten as sample size increases.
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Statistical Methodology

Empirical stratification for predictive treatment effect heterogeneity with post-treatment variables

Post-treatment variables (PVs), such as intercurrent events, treatment noncompliance, and behavioral responses to treatment, provide information about individuals' post-treatment responses and may help characterize heterogeneity in treatment effects on the primary outcome. This paper develops an empirical stratification framework to study the treatment effect heterogeneity across baseline-predicted PV response profiles. Specifically, we construct empirical scores from baseline-covariate predictions of potential PV responses and use these scores to define empirically accessible subgroups for treatment effect evaluation. The resulting empirical-stratum treatment effects (ETEs) quantify treatment effects across these baseline-predicted PV response profiles, and are identifiable under a standard set of assumptions in causal inference. We further introduce projected ETE curves and develop efficient-influence-function-based estimators that allow flexible nuisance estimation. We clarify the distinction and connection of our framework to principal stratification analysis, which address two inferential questions. We evaluate the proposed framework through simulation studies and illustrate its use in two real-world applications.
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Statistics Theory

A Structural Separation Between Chernoff and Convex-Order Optimality in Robust Testing

In classical robust hypothesis testing, least favorable distributions often simultaneously maximize all Chernoff $u$-affinities and minimize all $f$-divergences. This paper identifies the structural mechanism that causes this equivalence to fail in general: the cone generated by fractional power functions $\{x^u\}_{u\in(0,1)}$ is strictly smaller than the cone of convex functions, inducing a separation between fractional-moment dominance and convex-order dominance. An explicit minimal counterexample is constructed on a three-point probability space, with convex, compact uncertainty classes and uniformly bounded likelihood ratios, for which a single pair maximizes all Chernoff functionals uniformly yet fails to minimize a convex $f$-divergence. It is further proved that no such separation can occur on a two-point space. Sufficient conditions for equivalence – including stochastic ordering of likelihood ratios – are discussed, and an open characterization problem in the geometry of moment cones is highlighted.
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Statistical Methodology

A Functional Data Framework For Analyzing Shapes and Textures in Images

Images represent objects characterized by contours and textures. From a statistical perspective these features can be defined as observations of continuous random functions. However, most existing approaches rely on pixel-based discretizations which lead to high-dimensional representations and heavy computational costs. In this note, we introduce an alternative more frugal representation. This representation assumes that the object has a star-shaped domain interior. Under this condition, we explore the analysis of images from a functional data analysis perspective. The proposed framework is illustrated on a real data supervised image classification problem.
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Statistics Theory · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Express Language Modeling

We introduce a new tool, Express, for converting a non-causal attention approximation into a causal approximation with matching approximation guarantees. When combined with the state-of-the-art Thinformer approximation, Express improves upon the best known causal attention guarantees, delivering $\log^{3/2}(n)/s$ approximation error with only $O(s)$ memory and $O(s^2 \log^2(n))$ compression overhead for a sequence of length $n$. We pair these developments with an efficient I/O-aware Triton implementation, demonstrate substantial speedups over FlashAttention 2, and use Express to overcome four resource bottlenecks in the language modeling pipeline: long-context prefill, KV cache compression, long-form memory-constrained decoding, and long-form compute-constrained decoding.
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All authors Albert Gong, Annabelle Michael Carrell, Raaz Dwivedi, Lester Mackey

Machine Learning (Statistics)

Range Penalization: Theoretical Insights with Applications in Federated Learning

This paper introduces range regularization for federated learning with linear systematic components to enhance statistical accuracy and induce cross-client regularity conducive to quantization, coding, and resource efficiency. Our approach identifies features with shared weights across different clients and adaptively clusters the weights of personalized features at extreme values, a process we refer to as polar clustering. Theoretical analysis of the associated estimators poses significant challenges due to the seminorm nature and non-decomposability of the regularizer. We develop new proof techniques for the nonasymptotic analysis of statistical accuracy and faithful pattern recovery. Moreover, a fast optimization algorithm that leverages varying degrees of local strong convexity is proposed to reduce iteration complexity. Experiments support the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed approach.
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Machine Learning (Statistics) · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Conservation Laws from Data Symmetry in Neural Networks

We explore whether intrinsic symmetries of the training data lead to conserved quantities during gradient-flow training of neural networks. Under the assumption that the loss function is analytic and non-polynomial, we prove that data symmetries generically do not induce any additional integrals of motion. For mean squared error (MSE) loss, on the other hand, there are situations in which data augmentation yields extra conserved quantities. We build a framework, utilizing tensorizable networks to describe this phenomenon. Tensorizable networks are a family of architectures whose dependence on parameters and inputs can be separated using an intermediate representation. They include linear and polynomial networks, as well as Lightning Attention.
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Machine Learning (Statistics)

Human-AI Teaming Through the Lens of Calibration

We study models for human-AI teaming through the lens of statistical calibration. We assume the team consists of an AI model and human – both of which are calibrated with respect to some partitioning of the feature space – and expose how the calibration assumptions propagate into the teaming framework. In particular, we consider frameworks that either (i) combine human and model predictions or (ii) delegate prediction responsibility to either a human or model. We show via theoretical and empirical results that existing methods for combination do not preserve the human's degree of calibration. Methods for delegation (by the very act of delegation) preserve calibration of the downstream predictors but shift the burden onto the rejector meta-model that decides who predicts. The rejector must be calibrated finely enough to locate where each member is superior, a demand that grows with the human's expertise and becomes unattainable when the human relies on information the system cannot observe.
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All authors Eric Nalisnick, Chi Zhang, Sophia Qian, Yixin Wang

Statistical Methodology

Adressing Separation: A Firth-corrected Joint Model for Longitudinal and Time-to-event Data with an Application on Dropout from Vocational Training

Joint Models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are frequently used to model endogenous longitudinal covariates alongside a time-to-event outcome. However, the model class borrows some limitations of the survival submodels, including the necessity for non-separation for each category of categorical covariates. We therefore incorporate Firth's correction into the frequentist estimation procedure of joint models in order to make the model class applicable in settings with separation cases. We derive the needed quantities for the correction term and implement it in the Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for the parameter estimation in joint models. Our simulation study shows, that in data situations with separation issues, the Firth-corrected estimation procedure yields less biased estimates and the respective coefficients approach the estimated values observed in the non-separation cases. The application on a data set on satisfaction with and dropouts from vocational training demonstrates the advantages of the Firth-corrected joint model in a real world data set with separation. The results add to the literature on dropout from vocational training in Germany by explicitly modeling direct effects of socioeconomic and training-specific factors on the risk of dropout as well as their indirect contribution via satisfaction with the training.
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Statistics Applications

Structural Under-Representation of Women in News: Nonparametric Bayesian Mixtures Capture Time-Dependent Dynamics

The under-representation of women as sources cited in news media is one prominent representation of gender bias. Understanding where gender bias concentrates and how it evolves is essential for targeted mitigation. Because gender representation varies across topics, time, and reported-on regions, creating complex dependencies that are difficult to capture parametrically, we employ a nonparametric model to uncover latent cluster structures and temporal dynamics. We combine time-dependent Bayesian mixture modeling techniques with a Beta mixture kernel tailored to female quote shares, bounded between 0 and 1. Fitted on Canadian news articles from 2019 to 2024, the model reveals structural under-representation of women across all clusters, with news topic driving differences in female quote shares more strongly than the reported-on region. More than 85% of topic-region time series show no improvement toward gender parity over the observation period. Dynamic density estimation confirms that the aggregate distribution of female quote shares remains stable between 2019 and 2024. Our application demonstrates that advanced probabilistic models not only reproduce findings in gender bias research but also reveal latent dependencies and structural patterns that simpler approaches miss, encouraging future adoption of model-based frameworks for studying media bias.
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All authors Isabella Habereder, Thomas Kneib, Isao Echizen, Timo Spinde

Statistical Methodology

Correcting Variable Importance Scored by Random Forests

Variable importance produced by Random Forests (RF) is used widely in statistical data analysis, and has played an important role in a variety of tasks such as assisting model interpretation, model selection and diagnosis, and cost-bounded learning etc. However, the calculation of variable importance in RF does not take into account of the correlations among variables, and variables that are correlated to many other variables tend to receive a lower importance index or being completely masked (i.e., with an importance index near zero) by other strongly correlated variables. To prevent influence from unwanted correlated variables in calculating variable importance, we propose to group variables by their conditional correlations (conditional on the response variable). We explore two computationally efficient options, with one grouping variables individually, and then separates the variable of interest from all correlated variables, while the other uses clustering to group variables according to their pair-wise conditional correlations. Our experiments show that both lead to sensible corrections to the importance of variables.
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All authors Guancheng Zhou, Haiping Xu, Jason Liu, Donghui Yan

Statistical Methodology

Two-Sample Homogeneity Test via Entropic Optimal Transport

This paper proposes a two-sample homogeneity test based on entropic optimal transport (EOT) maps from a common reference distribution – the uniform law on the unit ball. The test statistic is the squared $L^2$-distance between the two empirical EOT maps. For fixed entropic regularization parameter, we prove that the population map discrepancy is identifiable, derive a functional central limit theorem for the empirical map difference under the null, and establish the Gaussian quadratic-form null limit. We also prove consistency against fixed alternatives and characterize local asymptotic power under contiguous alternatives. A weighted multiplier bootstrap is proposed to calibrate the non-pivotal null distribution, and its validity is established. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed EOT-map test has reliable finite-sample size control and exhibits competitive power compared with other existing methods. The method is particularly powerful for location alternatives and, beyond a single scalar discrepancy, it provides additional diagnostic information on how the two distributions differ. Finally, a real data application concludes the paper.
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Statistical Methodology · Cross-listed from cs.LG

SPACR: Single-Pass Adaptive Training of Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Regressors

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides robust uncertainty guarantees for predictive models, but is typically applied post hoc, which misaligns model training with the conformal goal of producing efficient (i.e., narrow) intervals. We propose SPACR (Single-Pass Adaptive Conformal Regressor), a novel method for directly training uncertainty-aware regressors within a differentiable loss. SPACR jointly optimizes accuracy, efficiency, and validity without batch-splitting or a predefined confidence level during training. As a result, a single SPACR model yields valid prediction intervals at multiple confidence levels during inference, avoiding the costly retraining required by methods like Directly Optimized Inductive Conformal Regression (DOICR). Experiments on diverse tabular and image datasets show that SPACR consistently gives tighter intervals and better coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to standard CP and DOICR, while significantly reducing computational costs relative to retraining-dependent baselines.
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Other Statistics

ClusBench: The Clustering Benchmark Data Resource You've All Been Waiting For (?)

Although some very common test beds exist for assessing the performance of clustering methods, large scale benchmarking is typically limited to relatively simplistic simulation set-ups. Here we describe the production and curation of close to 3000 synthetic data sets, derived from more than 200 publicly available data sets; the majority of which arose from real-world applications. By fitting a flexible non-parametric distribution to each base data set we are able to retain much of the nuance in real-world data which is difficult to reproduce in standard simulations, while also producing data sets whose sizes are sometimes substantially greater than the data sets from which they are derived. The synthetic data sets, plus an accompanying R package, are available for download from https://github.com/DavidHofmeyr/ClusBench.
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Statistical Methodology

Data compression for fast dimension reduction and clustering of high-dimensional discrete data

High-dimensional discrete data are common in genomics, microbiomics, survey research, and digital behavioral analysis. Clustering such data is challenging because many existing methods are computationally expensive, sensitive to sparsity and discreteness, or designed for specific data types. We introduce a deterministic dimension-reduction framework for clustering high-dimensional discrete observations. The approach compresses observations into a low-dimensional continuous representation using weighted sums derived from a scaled positional encoding, yielding a numerically stable transformation applicable to both binary and count data. Several theoretical properties are established. The compression mapping is injective, ensuring that distinct observations remain distinguishable after transformation. Under mild regularity conditions, the compressed variables are approximately Gaussian, supporting the use of model-based clustering in the reduced space. We further show that separation between cluster centroids is preserved, indicating that location-based cluster structure remains identifiable following dimension reduction. Simulation studies demonstrate accurate cluster recovery across diverse settings, while achieving substantial computational savings compared with commonly used dimension-reduction techniques. Applications to microbiome data and United Nations rolling call voting data highlight the method's practical utility. Overall, the framework offers a scalable, efficient, and broadly applicable solution for clustering high-dimensional discrete data.
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Statistics Applications

Two-stage imputation of longitudinal anthropometric data with cross-reference harmonisation: a simulation study

Objective. Longitudinal datasets frequently contain missing weight and height measurements, and studies that combine data sources may index measurements against different growth reference standards (e.g., the WHO reference and CDC charts). We describe and evaluate a reproducible two-stage method that imputes missing anthropometry while making the choice of reference standard an explicit parameter. Methods. Stage 1 applies within-subject linear interpolation across visit dates (interior gaps only, no extrapolation). Stage 2 imputes remaining values from an age- and sex-specific growth reference using the LMS method by estimating each subject's centile, carrying it forward and backwards within the subject, defaulting to the 50th centile when a subject is never measured, and reading the expected value off the reference at the visit age. Different references can be supplied per data source so that the standard applied is recorded and auditable. We assessed recovery accuracy by masking and re-imputing a random 20% of observed values. All evaluations used computer-generated synthetic data. Results. On synthetic data (n = 60 subjects, 288 visits, 30% missing), the method resolved missingness to 100% completeness. Masked-value recovery gave a mean absolute error of 1.78 kg for weight (3.5% mean absolute percentage error) and 2.84 cm for height (2.0%), with negligible bias. Values recovered by within-subject interpolation were more accurate than those recovered from the growth reference, as expected, supporting the two-stage ordering. Conclusion. The method offers a simple, dependency-free, and auditable approach to anthropometric imputation, with explicit handling of differing reference standards and per-value provenance. Application to empirical data and propagation of imputation uncertainty into downstream models are the necessary next steps before use in substantive analyses.
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Statistical Methodology

Predicting Current Outcomes From Historical Survey Data With Weighted Conformal Prediction

In large-scale complex surveys such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), some outcomes are measured only in selected years, leaving incomplete records across survey waves. We develop a weighted conformal prediction framework that enables valid population-level prediction of unobserved outcomes using information from earlier surveys. The method accommodates covariate shift, where both continuous and categorical covariate distributions evolve over time while survey design affects representativeness. It integrates subgroup-specific density ratio and subgroup-proportion estimation to approximate likelihood ratios between the historical and target covariate distributions, and we establish coverage guarantees for the resulting prediction sets. Simulation studies and an application predicting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) for the current U.S. population show that the proposed approach achieves coverage close to the nominal level and improved efficiency over existing methods, particularly when covariate distributions are complex or unknown.
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Statistical Methodology

Deterministic Denominator Design for Localized Tamed Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics

If the denominator in a tamed stochastic gradient Langevin update uses the current stochastic-gradient draw, the conditional mean can be biased even when the stochastic-gradient oracle is unbiased. A state-dependent denominator fixed before that draw removes this coupling. We build practical deterministic denominators from a short pilot run. A log-scale proxy is fitted to the growth score $G_\star(x)=\|b(x)\|/(1+\|x\|)$, and empirical pilot quantiles set the activation thresholds of a local proxy-quantile envelope. The reported proxy-quantile experiments use this local denominator. Separately, we describe a final denominator with a norm-polynomial tail-floor correction that can be used when one wants to certify the global effective-linearity input required by the companion deterministic-envelope Lyapunov theory. We show how proxy and threshold errors enter denominator errors and the resulting stationary observable errors. In the reported experiments, the local proxy-quantile denominator improves over random-denominator tamed SGLD at comparable production cost. It also gives observable behavior close to the $G_\star$-envelope benchmark, without the full-gradient growth-score evaluations required by that benchmark.
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Statistical Methodology

Minimum free energy randomized design to improve covariate balance

“Block what you can and randomize what you cannot” is the core principle for treatment effect estimation in randomized controlled trials. Although a wealth of allocation strategies has been developed, an explicit trade-off between the covariate balance achieved by blocking and the robustness guaranteed by randomization is seldom quantified. Motivated by the second law of thermodynamics, this work posits a new criterion that lowers the covariate imbalance while maximizing the entropy that quantifies contrast and allocation diversity. The resulting optimal strategy, termed the minimum free energy randomized design, is then derived, thereby formally achieving such a trade-off. To facilitate practical implementation, we further develop a computationally efficient dynamic allocation algorithm with theoretical guarantees. Using a finite-sample variance decomposition, the proposed randomization strategy is shown to control covariate imbalance while preventing unobserved heterogeneity from dominating the mean squared error, thus retaining minimax efficiency under the prescribed design constraints. Extensive numerical simulations demonstrate that our method achieves superior statistical efficiency and greater robustness than existing approaches.
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Machine Learning (Statistics) · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Advancing the State-of-the-Art in Empirical Privacy Auditing

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) can exhibit problematic memorization of individual training examples. Empirical privacy auditing (EPA) quantifies this risk by measuring realistic data leakage on membership inference (MI) or reconstruction attacks. A key challenge in EPA is designing “canary” examples that are mixed with the privacy-sensitive training data. We propose generating synthetic canaries via high-temperature sampling ($T \geq 0.8$) from LLMs, using prompts tailored to the privacy-sensitive training data. These canaries act as high-influence outliers, ensuring high identifiability and hence strong audits. Further, since the canaries are themselves non-private, they are inspectable and can be inserted with repetition without jeopardizing the privacy of the real data. An important use of models fine-tuned on privacy-sensitive data is the generation of synthetic data. This also comes with privacy risk. We introduce a powerful synthetic data audit based on fine-tuning an auxiliary model on the synthetic data. Auditing the auxiliary model for the original canaries then provides a strong estimate of the privacy leakage through the synthetic data. Finally, leveraging our strong auditing methodologies, we perform a systematic investigation into the interacting effects of model capacity and canary entropy on memorization.
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All authors Nicole Mitchell, Galen Andrew, Arun Ganesh, Brendan McMahan, Peter Kairouz

Machine Learning (Statistics) · Cross-listed from math.OC

A Mean-Field Analysis of Multi-Head Self-Attention under Cross-Entropy Training

This paper develops a mean-field theory for a simplified single-layer causal multi-head self-attention model trained by cross-entropy minimization. Each attention head is treated as a particle in parameter space, and the empirical law of the heads is used as the large-head state variable. In the infinite-head limit, the averaged attention logits define a risk functional on probability measures, whose first variation generates a nonlinear Wasserstein gradient-flow equation. Unlike classical mean-field analyses of shallow networks that often focus on square-loss regression, the present model contains the softmax residual from the cross-entropy objective and the query-key-value structure of masked self-attention. We prove a static finite-head approximation bound for the optimal risk, characterize global minimizers through a variational support condition, and establish a quantitative finite-time propagation-of-chaos estimate comparing finite-head stochastic gradient descent with the limiting PDE. We then study the long-time behavior of the PDE: energy dissipation, convergence to the stationary set under compactness, convergence to a single stationary measure under topological or Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz assumptions, and explicit convergence rates under gradient-domination conditions. Finally, we prove local exponential stability under a Wasserstein strong-monotonicity condition and give verifiable stability and instability criteria for Dirac stationary measures. The results provide a rigorous baseline mean-field framework for attention-head training and clarify the additional compactness, landscape, and curvature assumptions needed to pass from stationarity to convergence and stability.
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Statistics Theory

Distributionally Robust PCA with Data-Adaptive Wasserstein Geometry

We develop a distributionally robust formulation of principal component analysis that minimizes worst-case reconstruction risk over distributions lying within a Wasserstein neighborhood of the empirical measure. The Wasserstein neighborhood, viewed as an ambiguity set of distributions, is adaptively calibrated through a transport matrix $G$ to capture heterogeneous uncertainty across dimensions. The homogeneous case, in which G is a scalar multiple of the identity matrix, recovers classical PCA. Under a general transport matrix G, we derive a dual characterization of the associated minimax optimization problem and introduce a tractable surrogate objective function consisting of the square-root empirical reconstruction error plus a geometry-dependent residual exposure penalty. The exact and surrogate estimators are shown to be consistent for the population PCA subspace and asymptotically equivalent at the projector level. The transport geometry is allowed to be data adaptive, while the Wasserstein radius is calibrated via robust Wasserstein profile inference, yielding a data-driven radius of order $n^{-1/2}$. Comprehensive theoretical guarantees are established, including consistency and local Grassmannian asymptotics exhibiting an explicit Wasserstein-induced drift determined by the limiting transport geometry and calibration level. Numerical experiments and a real-data application demonstrate that the proposed method can substantially improve finite-sample out-of-sample performance under structured covariance shifts, moderate contamination, and certain same-distribution regimes.
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Statistics Theory · Cross-listed from cs.IT

Minimum Distortion Quantization with Specified Output Distribution

We derive the optimal quantizer of a real-valued random variable $W$ with distribution $P_W$ such that 1) the distribution of the quantization output $X$ that can take $k$ values follows any specified distribution $P_X$ over $\{1,\ldots,k\}$, and 2) the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) of estimating $W$ from $X$ is minimized. It is shown that the optimal quantizer takes the form $X=\sigma\big(F_{\sigma^{-1}(X)}^{-1}(F_W(W))\big)$, where $\sigma$ is the optimal permutation of $\{1,\ldots,k\}$ among all permutations to minimize the MMSE, and $F$ is the cumulative distribution function. When $P_W$ is uniform over an interval or $P_X$ is uniform over $\{1,\ldots,k\}$, the quantizer takes a simple form $X=F_{X}^{-1}(F_W(W))$. The concept of majorization plays a key role in the optimality proof. Specifying the output distribution is useful for designing quantizers with explicitly controlled output entropy, maximized mutual information between input and output, tailored output distribution to match channel input requirements for communication, and data anonymization.
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Statistical Methodology

Robust Bayesian Predictive Model Selection using Bregman Divergence

Predictive Bayesian model comparison often relies on leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation criteria such as the expected log predictive density (ELPD). However, model rankings can be overly sensitive to outliers and tail mismatch because ELPD is based on the log score. We propose a score-matched generalized ELPD framework that replaces the log score by a Bregman scoring rule to update model parameters through a generalized posterior and to evaluate LOO predictive utility. Candidate posterior predictive distributions are ranked by out-of-sample utility under the chosen scoring rule, yielding a direct proper-score generalization of standard ELPD. We focus especially on the $\beta$-divergence family, where $\beta$ controls the sensitivity of predictive comparison to low-density observations. Under model misspecification, the procedure asymptotically selects the model whose predictive distribution is closest to the data-generating process under the chosen Bregman divergence. A simulation study and applications to microbial and forensic data show that the generalized ELPD can change the selected model through reduced sensitivity to low-density observations.
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Statistics Theory

Bidirectional Random Projections

This paper analyzes bidirectional random projections for ordinary least squares (OLS) regression under the fixed design setting. Let $(X,Y) \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times p} \times \mathbb{R}^n$ be a sample and $R \in \mathbb{R}^{n_1 \times n}, W \in \mathbb{R}^{p \times p_1}$ be two properly distributed random projections. We develop an expected excess loss bound for the OLS estimator built on $(WXR, WY)$. Compared to an established bound for OLS estimator built on $(XR, Y)$, the gap is approximately $O\left( p_1 + C \frac{1}{p_1} \right)$, where $C$ scales with $n_1/n$ and can be negative for small $n_1/n$. Its implications are confirmed by numerical results on real-world data.
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Machine Learning (Statistics)

Near-Exponential Convergence Rates for kNN Classification based on Boltzmann Margin

Convergence-rate analysis for classifiers is often conducted under either Tsybakov margin or Massart margin. The former is a relatively weak condition that typically yields polynomial rates, while the latter is substantially stronger but can guarantee exponential rates. In this paper, we introduce a new condition, called Boltzmann margin, that bridges the gap between these two regimes. It is weaker than Massart margin, generally stronger than Tsybakov margin, and can imply many of their properties under suitable conditions. We apply Boltzmann margin to the analysis of kNN classifiers and establish the first near-exponential convergence rates for kNN classification. We also present extensions of the main results and provide numerical evidence supporting the main theoretical implications.
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Statistics Theory · Cross-listed from math.NA

Higher-order Diffusion Sampling via Chebyshev Interpolation and Gauss–Seidel Iterations

Higher-order ODE solvers have shown strong empirical promise for accelerating diffusion models through the probability flow ODE, but rigorous non-asymptotic guarantees for such acceleration remain limited. In this paper, we develop a Chebyshev–Gauss–Seidel higher-order sampler and establish a non-asymptotic convergence guarantee that allows the approximation order to grow logarithmically with the number of outer iterations. In the exact-score setting, up to logarithmic factors, the proposed sampler requires at most \[ d^{1+o_T(1)}\varepsilon^{-1/K_1} \] score functions to approximate the target distribution on \(\mathbb{R}^d\) within total variation distance \(\varepsilon\), where \(o_T(1)\to 0\) as \(T\to\infty\) and \(K_1>0\) is a sufficiently large constant. The analysis assumes only a polynomial second-moment bound on the target distribution, thereby relaxing the bounded-support condition imposed in existing higher-order theory. Moreover, the guarantee is robust to score and Jacobian estimation errors and does not require higher-order smoothness assumptions on the score estimates. Numerical experiments on anisotropic Gaussian mixture benchmarks support the predicted improvement in the accuracy–cost tradeoff under finite score-evaluation budgets.
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