Papers

We study Bayesian model selection in colored Gaussian graphical models (CGGMs), which combine sparsity of conditional independencies with symmetry constraints encoded by vertex- and edge-colored graphs. A key computational bottleneck in Bayesian inference for CGGMs is the evaluation of the Diaconis-Ylvisaker normalizing constants, given by gamma-type integrals over cones of precision matrices with prescribed zeros and equality constraints. We introduce a new subclass of RCON models for which these normalizing constants admit closed-form expressions. On the algebraic side, we identify conditions on the space of colored precision matrices that guarantee tractability of the associated integrals, leading to the notions of Block-Cholesky spaces (BC-spaces) and Diagonally Commutative Block-Cholesky spaces (DCBC-spaces). On the combinatorial side, we characterize the colored graphs inducing such spaces via a color perfect elimination ordering and a 2-path regularity condition, and define the resulting Color Elimination-Regular (CER) graphs and their symmetric variants. Our framework extends the theory of uncolored decomposable graphs to the colored setting, and the CER class contains all RCOP models associated with decomposable graphs. For models with a single vertex color, our framework reveals a close connection between DCBC-spaces and Bose-Mesner algebras. For models defined on BC-spaces, we derive finite product formulas for the normalizing constants in terms of gamma functions, matrix determinants, and model-specific structure constants. For RCON models whose matrix spaces are DCBC-spaces, we provide efficient methods for computing all structure constants and determinant factors required to evaluate these formulas. Our results substantially broaden the range of CGGMs amenable to Bayesian structure learning in high-dimensional applications.

Extreme heat is an escalating public health concern. Although prior studies have examined heat-health associations, their reliance on restricted diagnoses and diagnostic categories misses or misclassifies heat-related illness. We conducted a heat-wide association study to identify acute-care diagnoses associated with extreme heat in Chicago, Illinois. Using 916,904 acute-care visits – including emergency department and urgent care encounters – among 372,140 adults across five healthcare systems from 2011-2023, we applied a two-stage analytic approach: quasi-Poisson regression to screen 1,803 diagnosis codes for heat-related risks, followed by distributed lag non-linear models in a time-stratified case-crossover design to refine the list of heat-related diagnoses and estimate same-day and short-term cumulative odds ratios of acute-care visits during extreme heat versus reference temperature. We observed same-day increases in visits for heat illness, volume depletion, hypotension, edema, acute kidney failure, and multiple injuries. By analyzing the full diagnostic spectrum of acute-care services, this study comprehensively characterizes heat-associated morbidity, reinforcing and advancing existing literature.

The sample complexity of multi-group learning is shown to improve in the group-realizable setting over the agnostic setting, even when the family of groups is infinite so long as it has finite VC dimension. The improved sample complexity is obtained by empirical risk minimization over the class of group-realizable concepts, which itself could have infinite VC dimension. Implementing this approach is also shown to be computationally intractable, and an alternative approach is suggested based on improper learning.

Federated learning (FL) is increasingly used in safety-critical and fairness-sensitive applications, where learning objectives must be optimized subject to functional constraints. This setting is challenging due to costly projection onto the resulting feasible set, stochastic constraint information, partial client participation, and limited communication at edge devices. We propose a federated stochastic switching framework based on primal-only updates, avoiding dual-variable tuning for functionally constrained federated optimization. For convex objectives, the framework further supports compression with error feedback to control compression-induced bias. We establish high-probability convergence and feasibility guarantees under stochastic gradients and partial client participation, and extend the analysis to weakly convex objectives through proximal-stationarity guarantees. Our bounds isolate the effects of stochastic gradients, constraint-evaluation noise, and partial participation, and show that direct switching can retain a nonvanishing constraint-estimation error even with exact local constraint evaluations. To overcome this limitation, we develop variance-reducing constraint estimators that yield vanishing feasibility and stationarity guarantees with fixed per-round client participation and constraint-evaluation batch sizes. Experiments on Neyman-Pearson classification, fairness-constrained learning on the ADULT dataset, and constrained deep reinforcement learning demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

We study multigrade deep learning (MGDL) as a principled framework for structured error refinement in deep neural networks. While the approximation power of neural networks is now relatively well understood, training very deep architectures remains challenging due to highly nonconvex and often ill-conditioned optimization landscapes. In contrast, for relatively shallow networks, most notably certain one-hidden-layer ReLU models, training admits convex reformulations with global guarantees under appropriate settings, motivating learning paradigms that improve stability while scaling to depth. MGDL builds on this insight by training deep networks grade by grade: previously learned grades are frozen, and each newly added grade-wise subnetwork is composed on top of the previously learned grades and trained to fit the residual left by the current approximation, yielding a structured and interpretable hierarchical refinement process. We develop an operator-theoretic foundation for MGDL and prove that, for any continuous target function defined on a hypercube, there exists a fixed-width multigrade ReLU scheme whose residuals are pointwise nonincreasing in magnitude and converge uniformly to zero, with strict $L^p$-norm decay at every nontrivial grade for $p\in [1,\infty)$. To the best of our knowledge, this work provides the first rigorous constructive approximation guarantee showing that a grade-wise residual refinement scheme can achieve vanishing error in a fixed-width multigrade ReLU architecture.

We study instrumental-variable designs where policy reforms strongly shift the distribution of an endogenous variable but only weakly move its mean. We formalize this by introducing distributional relevance: instruments may be purely distributional. Within a triangular model, distributional relevance suffices for nonparametric identification of average structural effects via a control function. We then propose Quantile Least Squares (Q-LS), which aggregates conditional quantiles of X given Z into an optimal mean-square predictor and uses this projection as an instrument in a linear IV estimator. We establish consistency, asymptotic normality, and the validity of standard 2SLS variance formulas, and we discuss regularization across quantiles. Monte Carlo designs show that Q-LS delivers well-centered estimates and near-correct size when mean-based 2SLS suffers from weak instruments. In Health and Retirement Study data, Q-LS exploits Medicare Part D-induced distributional shifts in out-of-pocket risk to sharpen estimates of its effects on depression.

Edge intelligence enables AI inference at the network edge, co-located with or near the radio access network, rather than in centralized clouds or on mobile devices. It targets low-latency, resource-constrained applications with large data volumes, requiring tight integration of wireless access and on-site computing. Yet system performance and cost-efficiency hinge on joint pre-deployment dimensioning of radio and computational resources, especially under spatial and temporal uncertainty. Prior work largely emphasizes run-time allocation or relies on simplified models that decouple radio and computing, missing end-to-end correlations in large-scale deployments. This paper introduces a unified stochastic framework to dimension multi-cell edge-intelligent systems. We model network topology with Poisson point processes, capturing random user and base-station locations, inter-cell interference, distance-based fractional power control, and peak-power constraints. By combining this with queueing theory and empirical AI inference workload profiling, we derive tractable expressions for end-to-end offloading delay. These enable a non-convex joint optimization that minimizes deployment cost under statistical QoS guarantees, expressed through strict tail-latency and inference-accuracy constraints. We prove the problem decomposes into convex subproblems, yielding global optimality. Numerical results in noise- and interference-limited regimes identify cost-efficient design regions and configurations that cause under-utilization or user unfairness. Smaller cells reduce transmission delay but raise per-request computing cost due to weaker server multiplexing, whereas larger cells show the opposite trend. Densification reduces computational costs only when frequency reuse scales with base-station density; otherwise, sparser deployments improve fairness and efficiency in interference-limited settings.

In this paper, we consider the problem of parametric empirical Bayes estimation of an i.i.d. prior in high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression, with random design. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the variational Empirical Bayes (vEB) estimator, which approximately maximizes a variational lower bound of the intractable marginal likelihood. We characterize a sharp phase transition behavior for the vEB estimator – namely that it is information theoretically optimal (in terms of limiting variance) up to $p=o(n^{2/3})$ while it suffers from a sub-optimal convergence rate in higher dimensions. In the first regime, i.e., when $p=o(n^{2/3})$, we show how the estimated prior can be calibrated to enable valid coordinate-wise and delocalized inference, both under the empirical Bayes posterior and the oracle posterior. In the second regime, we propose a debiasing technique as a way to improve the performance of the vEB estimator beyond $p=o(n^{2/3})$. Extensive numerical experiments corroborate our theoretical findings.

Recent developments in financial time series focus on modeling volatility across multiple assets or indices in a multivariate framework, accounting for potential interactions such as spillover effects. Furthermore, the increasing integration of global financial markets provides a similar dynamics (referred to as comovement). In this context, we introduce a novel model for volatility vectors within the Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) class. This framework accommodates both spillover and co-movement effects through a distinct latent component. By adopting a specific parameterization, the model remains computationally feasible even for high-dimensional volatility vectors. To reduce the number of unknown coefficients, we propose a simple model-based clustering procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach through an empirical application to 29 assets of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, providing insight into volatility spillovers and shared market dynamics. Comparative analysis against alternative vector MEMs, including a fully parameterized version of the proposed model, demonstrates its superior or at least comparable performance across multiple evaluation criteria.

We give analytical results for propagation of uncertainty through trained multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) with a single hidden layer and ReLU activation functions. More precisely, we give expressions for the mean and variance of the output when the input is multivariate Gaussian. In contrast to previous results, we obtain exact expressions without resort to a series expansion.

We introduce a skewed edge based spatial prior, named RENeGe sk that extends the Gaussian RENeGe framework by incorporating directional asymmetry through a skew normal distribution. Skewness is defined on the edge graph and propagated to the node space, aligning asymmetric behavior with transitions across neighboring regions rather than with marginal node effects. The model is formulated within the skew normal framework and employs identifiable hierarchical priors together with low rank parameterizations to ensure scalability. The skew normal's stochastic representation is considered to facilitate the computational implementation. Simulation studies show that RENeGe sk recovers compact, edge-aligned directional structure more accurately than symmetric Gaussian priors, while remaining competitive under irregular spatial patterns. An application to cancer incidence data in Southern Brazil illustrates how the proposed approach yields stable area-level estimates while preserving localized, directionally driven spatial variation.

Compositional time series frequently exhibit structural breaks due to external shocks, policy changes, or market disruptions. Standard methods either ignore such breaks or handle them through fixed effects that cannot extrapolate beyond the sample, or step-function dummies that impose instantaneous adjustment. We develop a Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA model augmented with a directional-shift intervention mechanism that captures structural breaks through three interpretable parameters: a direction vector specifying which components gain or lose share, an amplitude controlling redistribution magnitude, and a logistic gate governing transition timing and speed. The model preserves compositional constraints by construction, maintains DARMA dynamics for short-run dependence, and produces coherent probabilistic forecasts through and after structural breaks. The intervention trajectory corresponds to geodesic motion on the simplex and is invariant to the choice of ILR basis. A simulation study with 400 fits across 8 scenarios shows near-zero amplitude bias and nominal 80% credible interval coverage when the shift direction is correctly identified (77.5% of cases); supplementary studies confirm robustness across extreme transition speeds and non-monotone DGPs. Two empirical applications to COVID-era Airbnb data characterize performance relative to simpler alternatives. Where the break is monotone and ongoing, the intervention model achieves near-nominal calibration (79.6%) while the fixed effect substantially under-covers (66.1%). Where post-break dynamics are non-monotone, both models are acceptably calibrated and the fixed effect outperforms on point accuracy. The intervention model's advantages are thus specific to settings with roughly monotone structural transitions.

Artificial intelligence in construction increasingly depends on structured representations such as Building Information Models and knowledge graphs, yet early-stage building designs are predominantly created as flexible boundary-representation (B-rep) models that lack explicit spatial, semantic, and performance structure. This paper presents a robust, fully automated framework that transforms unstructured B-rep geometry into knowledge-graph-based Building Information Models and further into executable Building Energy Models. The framework enables artificial intelligence to explicitly interpret building elements, spatial topology, and their associated thermal and performance attributes. It integrates automated geometry cleansing, multiple auto space-generation strategies, graph-based extraction of space and element topology, ontology-aligned knowledge modeling, and reversible transformation between ontology-based BIM and EnergyPlus energy models. Validation on parametric, sketch-based, and real-world building datasets demonstrates high robustness, consistent topological reconstruction, and reliable performance-model generation. By bridging design models, BIM, and BEM, the framework provides an AI-oriented infrastructure that extends BIM- and graph-based intelligence pipelines to flexible early-stage design geometry, enabling performance-driven design exploration and optimization by learning-based methods.

In many real-world networks, data on the edges evolve in continuous time, naturally motivating representations based on point processes. Heterogeneity in edge types further gives rise to multiplex network point processes. In this work, we propose a model for multiplex network data observed in continuous-time. We establish two-to-infinity norm consistency and asymptotic normality for spectral-embedding-based estimation of the model parameters as both network size and time resolution increase. Drawing inspiration from random dot product graph models, each edge intensity is expressed as the inner product of two low-dimensional latent positions: one dynamic and layer-agnostic, the other static and layer-dependent. These latent positions constitute the primary objects of inference, which is conducted via spectral embedding methods. Our theoretical results are established under a histogram estimator of the network intensities and provide justification for applying a doubly unfolded adjacency spectral embedding method for estimation. Simulations and real-data analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and inference procedure.

Under the assumption that data lie on a compact (unknown) manifold without boundary, we derive finite sample bounds for kernel smoothing and its (first and second) derivatives, and we establish asymptotic normality through Berry-Esseen type bounds. Special cases include kernel density estimation, kernel regression and the heat kernel signature. Connections to the graph Laplacian are also discussed.

Rapid financial innovation has been accompanied by a sharp increase in patenting activity, making timely and comprehensive prior-art discovery more difficult. This problem is especially evident in financial technologies, where innovations develop quickly, patent collections grow continuously, and citation recommendation systems must be updated as new applications arrive. Existing patent retrieval and citation recommendation methods typically rely on static indexes or periodic retraining, which limits their ability to operate effectively in such dynamic settings. In this study, we propose a real-time patent citation recommendation framework designed for large and fast-changing financial patent corpora. Using a dataset of 428,843 financial patents granted by the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA) between 2000 and 2024, we build a three-stage recommendation pipeline. The pipeline uses large language model (LLM) embeddings to represent the semantic content of patent abstracts, applies efficient approximate nearest-neighbor search to construct a manageable candidate set, and ranks candidates by semantic similarity to produce top-k citation recommendations. In addition to improving recommendation accuracy, the proposed framework directly addresses the dynamic nature of patent systems. By using an incremental indexing strategy based on hierarchical navigable small-world (HNSW) graphs, newly issued patents can be added without rebuilding the entire index. A rolling day-by-day update experiment shows that incremental updating improves recall while substantially reducing computational cost compared with rebuild-based indexing. The proposed method also consistently outperforms traditional text-based baselines and alternative nearest-neighbor retrieval approaches.

Text-based sentiment indicators are widely used to monitor public and market mood, but weekly sentiment series are noisy by construction. A main reason is that the amount of relevant news changes over time and across categories. As a result, some weekly averages are based on many articles, while others rely on only a few. Existing approaches do not explicitly account for changes in data availability when measuring uncertainty. We present a Bayesian state-space framework that turns aggregated news sentiment into a smoothed time series with uncertainty. The model treats each weekly sentiment value as a noisy measurement of an underlying sentiment process, with observation uncertainty scaled by the effective information weight $n_{tj}$: when coverage is high, latent sentiment is anchored more strongly to the observed aggregate; when coverage is low, inference relies more on the latent dynamics and uncertainty increases. Using news data grouped into multiple categories, we find broadly similar latent dynamics across categories, while larger differences appear in observation noise. The framework is designed for descriptive monitoring and can be extended to other text sources where information availability varies over time.

This paper develops a finite population framework for analyzing causal effects in settings with imperfect compliance where multiple treatments affect the outcome of interest. Two prominent examples are factorial designs and panel experiments with imperfect compliance. I define finite population causal effects that capture the relative effectiveness of alternative treatment sequences. I provide nonparametric estimators for a rich class of factorial and dynamic causal effects and derive their finite population distributions as the sample size increases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the desirable properties of the estimators. Finally, I use the estimator for causal effects in factorial designs to revisit a famous voter mobilization experiment that analyzes the effects of voting encouragement through phone calls on turnout.

The main aim of robust statistics is the development of methods able to cope with the presence of outliers. A new type of outliers, namely "cellwise", has garnered considerable attention. The state of the art for dealing with cellwise contamination in different models is presented in Raymaekers and Rousseeuw (2024). Outliers in time series can be treated as cellwise outliers, a further discussion on this subject is presented.

Despite the enormous success of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and related Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, sampling often still represents the computational bottleneck in scientific applications. Availability of parallel resources can significantly speed up MCMC inference by running a large number of chains in parallel, each collecting a single sample. However, the parallel approach converges slowly if the chains are not initialized close to the target distribution (cold start). Theoretically this can be resolved by initially running MCMC without Metropolis-Hastings adjustment to quickly converge to the vicinity of the target distribution and then turn on adjustment to achieve fine convergence. However, no practical scheme uses this strategy, due to the difficulty of automatically selecting the step size during the unadjusted phase. We here develop Late Adjusted Parallel Sampler (LAPS), which is precisely such a scheme and is applicable out of the box, all the hyperparameters are selected automatically. LAPS takes advantage of ensemble-based hyperparameter adaptation to estimate the bias at each iteration and converts it to the appropriate step size. We show that LAPS consistently and significantly outperforms ensemble adjusted methods such as MEADS or ChESS and the optimization-based initializer Pathfinder on a variety of standard benchmark problems. LAPS typically achieves two orders of magnitude lower wall-clock time than the corresponding sequential algorithms such as NUTS.

We propose a new asymptotic test for the separability of a covariance matrix. The null distribution is valid in wide matrix elliptical model that includes, in particular, both matrix Gaussian and matrix $t$-distribution. The test is fast to compute and makes no assumptions about the component covariance matrices. An alternative, Wald-type version of the test is also proposed. Our simulations reveal that both versions of the test have good power even for heavier-tailed distributions and can compete with the Gaussian likelihood ratio test in the case of normal data.

Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCEs) are widely recognized for their efficient computational performance in surrogate modeling. Yet, a robust framework to quantify local model errors is still lacking. While the local uncertainty of PCE prediction can be captured using bootstrap resampling, other methods offering more rigorous statistical guarantees are needed, especially in the context of small training datasets. Recently, conformal predictions have demonstrated strong potential in machine learning, providing statistically robust and model-agnostic prediction intervals. Due to its generality and versatility, conformal prediction is especially valuable, as it can be adapted to suit a variety of problems, making it a compelling choice for PCE-based surrogate models. In this contribution, we explore its application to PCE-based surrogate models. More precisely, we present the integration of two conformal prediction methods, namely the full conformal and the Jackknife+ approaches, into both full and sparse PCEs. For full PCEs, we introduce computational shortcuts inspired by the inherent structure of regression methods to optimize the implementation of both conformal methods. For sparse PCEs, we incorporate the two approaches with appropriate modifications to the inference strategy, thereby circumventing the non-symmetrical nature of the regression algorithm and ensuring valid prediction intervals. Our developments yield better-calibrated prediction intervals for both full and sparse PCEs, achieving superior coverage over existing approaches, such as the bootstrap, while maintaining a moderate computational cost.

Nuclei panoptic segmentation supports cancer diagnostics by integrating both semantic and instance segmentation of different cell types to analyze overall tissue structure and individual nuclei in histopathology images. Major challenges include detecting small objects, handling ambiguous boundaries, and addressing class imbalance. To address these issues, we propose PanopMamba, a novel hybrid encoder-decoder architecture that integrates Mamba and Transformer with additional feature-enhanced fusion via state space modeling. We design a multiscale Mamba backbone and a State Space Model (SSM)-based fusion network to enable efficient long-range perception in pyramid features, thereby extending the pure encoder-decoder framework while facilitating information sharing across multiscale features of nuclei. The proposed SSM-based feature-enhanced fusion integrates pyramid feature networks and dynamic feature enhancement across different spatial scales, enhancing the feature representation of densely overlapping nuclei in both semantic and spatial dimensions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first Mamba-based approach for panoptic segmentation. Additionally, we introduce alternative evaluation metrics, including image-level Panoptic Quality ($i$PQ), boundary-weighted PQ ($w$PQ), and frequency-weighted PQ ($fw$PQ), which are specifically designed to address the unique challenges of nuclei segmentation and thereby mitigate the potential bias inherent in vanilla PQ. Experimental evaluations on two multiclass nuclei segmentation benchmark datasets, MoNuSAC2020 and NuInsSeg, demonstrate the superiority of PanopMamba for nuclei panoptic segmentation over state-of-the-art methods. Consequently, the robustness of PanopMamba is validated across various metrics, while the distinctiveness of PQ variants is also demonstrated. Code is available at https://github.com/mkang315/PanopMamba.

Learning a stationary diffusion amounts to estimating the parameters of a stochastic differential equation whose stationary distribution matches a target distribution. We build on the recently introduced kernel deviation from stationarity (KDS), which enforces stationarity by evaluating expectations of the diffusion's generator in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Leveraging the connection between KDS and Stein discrepancies, we introduce the Stein-type KDS (SKDS) as an alternative formulation. We prove that a vanishing SKDS guarantees alignment of the learned diffusion's stationary distribution with the target. Furthermore, under broad parametrizations, SKDS is convex with an empirical version that is $\epsilon$-quasiconvex with high probability. Empirically, learning with SKDS attains comparable accuracy to KDS while substantially reducing computational cost and yields improvements over the majority of competitive baselines.

Diet plays a crucial role in health, and understanding the causal effects of dietary patterns is essential for informing public health policy and personalized nutrition strategies. However, causal inference in nutritional epidemiology faces several challenges: (i) high-dimensional and correlated food/nutrient intake data induce massive treatment levels; (ii) nutritional studies are interested in latent dietary patterns rather than single food items; and (iii) the goal is to estimate heterogeneous causal effects of these dietary patterns on health outcomes. We address these challenges by introducing a sophisticated exposure mapping framework that reduces the high-dimensional treatment space via factor analysis and enables the identification of dietary patterns. We also extend the Bayesian Causal Forest to accommodate three ordered levels of dietary exposure, better capturing the complex structure of nutritional data and enabling estimation of heterogeneous causal effects. We evaluate the proposed method through extensive simulations and apply it to a multi-center epidemiological study of Hispanic/Latino adults residing in the US. Using high-dimensional dietary data, we identify six dietary patterns and estimate their causal link with two key health risk factors: body mass index and fasting insulin levels. Our findings suggest that higher consumption of plant lipid-antioxidant, plant-based, animal protein, and dairy product patterns is associated with reduced risk.

We develop a fast and accurate grouped penalized credible region approach for variable selection and prediction in Bayesian high-dimensional regression. Most existing Bayesian methods either are subject to high computational costs due to long Markov Chain Monte Carlo runs or yield ambiguous variable selection results due to non-sparse solution output. The penalized credible region framework yields sparse post-processed estimates that facilitates unambiguous grouped variable selection. High estimation accuracy is achieved by shrinking noise from unimportant groups using a grouped global-local shrinkage prior. To ensure computational scalability, we approximate posterior summaries using coordinate ascent variational inference and recast the penalized credible region framework as a convex optimization problem that admits efficient computations. We prove that the resultant post-processed estimators are both parameter-consistent and variable selection consistent in high-dimensional settings. Theory is developed to justify running the coordinate ascent algorithm for at least two cycles. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in grouped variable selection, prediction, and computation time for several common models including ANOVA and nonparametric varying coefficient models.

Stick-breaking has a long history and is one of the most popular procedures for constructing random discrete distributions in Statistics and Machine Learning. In particular, due to their intuitive construction and computational tractability they are ubiquitous in modern Bayesian nonparametric inference. Most widely used models, such as the Dirichlet and the Pitman-Yor processes, rely on iid or independent length variables. Here we pursue a completely unexplored research direction by considering Markov length variables and investigate the corresponding general class of stick-breaking processes, which we term Markov stick-breaking processes. We establish conditions under which the associated species sampling process is proper and the distribution of a Markov stick-breaking process has full topological support, two fundamental desiderata for Bayesian nonparametric models. We also analyze the stochastic ordering of the weights and provide a new characterization of the Pitman-Yor process as the only stick-breaking process invariant under size-biased permutations, under mild conditions. Moreover, we identify two notable subclasses of Markov stick-breaking processes that enjoy appealing properties and include Dirichlet, Pitman-Yor and Geometric priors as special cases. Our findings include distributional results enabling posterior inference algorithms and methodological insights.

Nonlinear stochastic motion presents significant challenges for Bayesian particle tracking. To address this challenge, we propose a lifting framework that constructs a higher-dimensional linear stochastic representation of nonlinear state-space models. The resulting surrogates enable the use of computationally efficient linear filtering techniques while retaining a direct connection to the underlying nonlinear dynamics. The paper derives the necessary conditions for such transformations using Ito's lemma and variational calculus, and illustrates the method on a bistable cubic motion model, radial Brownian process model, and a logistic model with multiplicative noise. Simulations confirm that the transformed linear systems, when projected back, accurately reconstruct the nonlinear dynamics and, in distinct regimes of stiffness and singularity, yield tracking accuracy competitive with conventional filters, while avoiding their structural instabilities.

Computer experiments have become an indispensable alternative to complex physical and engineering experiments. The Kriging model is the most widely used surrogate model, with the core goal of minimizing the discrepancy between the surrogate and true models across the entire experimental domain. However, existing sequential design methods have critical limitations: observation-based batch sequential designs are rarely studied, while one-point sequential designs have insufficient information utilization and suffer from inefficient resource utilization – they require numerous repeated observation rounds to accumulate sufficient points, leading to prolonged experimental cycles. To address these gaps, this paper proposes two novel one-point sequential design criteria and a general batch sequential design framework. Moreover, the batch sequential design framework solves the inherent point clustering problem in naive batch selection, enabling efficient extension of any sequential criterion to batch scenarios. Simulations on some test functions demonstrate that the proposed methods outperform existing approaches in terms of fitting accuracy in most cases.

We study exact community recovery in sparse directed stochastic block models using neighborhood smoothing of connection-probability profiles. The proposed method clusters vertices according to their estimated outgoing connection-probability profiles. For each vertex, its complete outgoing profile is estimated by averaging the adjacency rows of empirically similar vertices, after which \(K\)-means is applied to the estimated profiles. An analogous procedure based on incoming connection-probability profiles is obtained by applying the same construction to the transposed adjacency matrix. We establish a finite-sample uniform row-wise error bound for the asymmetric smoothed estimator and derive consistency in the normalized two-to-infinity norm. We then show that exact recovery follows when the minimum separation between distinct population profiles dominates the row-wise estimation error. The result permits a vanishing sparsity factor, a general asymmetric block-probability matrix, and a number of communities that may diverge with the network size. We are unaware of a previous exact-recovery theorem that simultaneously covers these features for a directed stochastic block model. Numerical studies and an application to a directed neuronal connectome illustrate the practical behavior and limitations of the profile-based clustering approach.