Papers

Inverse learning within a statistical framework has a wide range of applications. It has garnered significant attention in machine learning, artificial intelligence, and related fields, where the goal is to infer unknown parameters from indirect and noisy observations. This work investigates the stable approximation of $u^{\dagger}$ which solves the equation $Au=g$, with $A$ being a linear operator between appropriate vector spaces. We will consider the domain to be a non-reflexive Banach Space and the co-domain to be a space of real-valued functions on a metric space $X$. The function $g$ is characterized by a finite number of independently and identically distributed data points, which are assumed to follow some unknown probability measure $\rho$. We employ Tikhonov regularization with an arbitrary convex functional to obtain the regularized solution corresponding to the given data point. The convergence analysis is carried out with respect to the Bregman distance, and an upper bound for the error is derived in probability terms. The theoretical findings are then supported by numerical experiments.

Regularized sparse regression has been extensively studied in the offline setting, but online formulation remains relatively under-explored. This gap stems from four key challenges: (i) the infeasibility of dynamically updating the regularization parameter in every online round, (ii) managing storage and memory complexity, (iii) enabling real-time computation via closed-form updates rather than solving full optimization problems at each round, and (iv) achieving optimal statistical guarantees under realistic assumptions. In this paper, we propose an online generalized-sparsity-constrained regression framework, focusing on online cardinality-constrained linear regression and low-rank matrix sensing. Unlike online regularized regression, our constrained formulation eliminates the need for dynamic parameter tuning. We introduce an efficient online hard-thresholding algorithm that performs closed-form updates and requires storing only summary statistics, making it computationally, memory, and storage efficient. Despite the inherent nonconvexity and combinatorial nature of the formulation, our algorithm achieves global convergence at the optimal statistical rate under realistic assumptions, provided that the projection set is properly overparameterized. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives.

Learning restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) is computationally challenging because it requires expectations whose exact evaluation is generally intractable. The expectations are typically evaluated using a sampling approximation based on blocked Gibbs sampling (BGS), which is a local Markov chain Monte Carlo transition kernel. However, the locality of BGS can lead to poor sampling quality when the RBM has high energy barriers, thereby degrading learning performance. Deep tempering (DT), which performs parallel tempering over a sequence of learnable RBMs including the training RBM, alleviates this locality issue. However, DT algorithmically requires multiple steps to move through the RBM sequence to achieve a nonlocal transition. In this paper, we propose a transition kernel defined over the RBM sequence used in DT. The proposed kernel has a round-trip structure over the sequence, enabling nonlocal moves within a single transition while leaving the RBM sequence invariant. Numerical experiments show that the proposed kernel performs nonlocal transitions more frequently and achieves higher sampling quality with fewer transitions than BGS and DT. We further verify that learning based on the proposed kernel is more stable and mitigates the training failures observed with BGS- and DT-based learning.

Data-driven algorithm design frames hyperparameter tuning as a statistical learning problem, but establishing generalization guarantees remains challenging due to the implicit, non-smooth dependence of model performance on hyperparameters. Existing multi-dimensional bounds under piecewise-polynomial assumptions remain theoretically loose and lack comprehensive lower bounds. We resolve this by establishing tight pseudo-dimension bounds for multi-dimensional data-driven tuning. First, we refine the learning-theoretic upper bound using real algebraic geometry; by analyzing invariant connected sign cells during block elimination rather than isolated sign vectors, we avoid topological over-counting to derive strictly sharper sample complexities. Second, we present a multi-regime lower-bound framework that disentangles combinatorial and algebraic capacities. By constructing shattered problem instances across distinct regimes, we prove our upper bounds are tightly saturated. Finally, we extend our topological framework to accommodate general bi-level validation-loss tuning and broader semi-algebraic applications.

Modern probabilistic time-series forecasters often express uncertainty through forecast samples. While typically converted into nominal prediction regions using empirical quantiles, these model-implied sets lack formal coverage guarantees and frequently deviate from nominal targets under distribution shift. Existing multivariate conformal methods can calibrate these regions online, but they typically estimate geometry from historical residuals using fixed or accumulating look-back windows. This reliance on the past limits their ability to exploit the instantaneous dependence structure of current predictions and leaves them vulnerable to stale-regime contamination. To address this, we propose SPACE, a conformal wrapper for sample-generating multivariate forecasters. SPACE constructs ellipsoidal joint prediction regions by estimating time-local covariance geometry directly from the current forecast sample cloud, calibrating the region's radius via a dynamic backward window-selection scheme. Across diverse multivariate datasets, probabilistic forecasters, and conformal baselines, SPACE consistently brings realized joint and rolling coverage closer to the nominal target, achieving superior coverage-efficiency tradeoffs relative to competing wrappers.

We study finite-sample parameter estimation in logistic regression with Gaussian design, where the goal is to estimate $\mathbf{\theta}^*\in \mathbb{R}^d$ with $R=\|\mathbf{\theta}^*\|_2\ge 1$ from i.i.d. samples $\{(\mathbf{x}_i,y_i)\}_{i=1}^n,$ $\mathbf{x}_i \sim N(0,\mathbf{I}_d)$, $y_i\mid \mathbf{x}_i \sim \mathrm{Bernoulli}((1+\exp(-\mathbf{x}_i^\top \mathbf{\theta}^*))^{-1})$. In this paper, we provide the first minimax optimal estimator, and improve on the best known finite-sample error rate for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). These two accomplishments are due to a minimax optimal estimator for the parameter norm $R$. First, we establish the minimax lower bound $\Omega(\sqrt{R^3/n})$ for norm estimation. We then improve the best known norm estimation error rate of the MLE, i.e., $O(\sqrt{R^3d/n})$ from Chardon, Lerasle and Mourtada (2024), to $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{R^3/n}+R^2d/n)$. The additional term, $R^2d/n$, appears to be the intrinsic bias of the MLE, as evidenced by the high-dimensional asymptotic theory of Zhao, Sur and Candes (2022) and numerical examples. We show that, however, this additional term is not information-theoretically necessary. To this end, we construct an efficient debiased norm estimator that achieves the error rate $O(\sqrt{R^3/n})$ and is therefore minimax optimal. Combining this with the optimal direction estimator given by the MLE, we establish the minimax optimal rate $\Theta(\sqrt{Rd/n}+\sqrt{R^3/n})$ for estimating $\mathbf{\theta}^*$, as well as the improved finite-sample error rate $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{Rd/n}+\sqrt{R^3/n}+R^2d/n)$ for the MLE. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed minimax optimal estimators outperform the MLE.

This paper develops an adaptive surrogate modeling method for problems with very high-dimensional spatio-temporal outputs. The analysis of spatio-temporal multi-physics systems is computationally expensive and consists of a large number of inputs and outputs. Surrogate models are often constructed to replace the physics-based model to achieve computational efficiency in analyses such as uncertainty quantification and optimization that require many function calls. In order to address the challenge introduced by the high dimensionality of spatio-temporal output, a dimension reduction method is first employed to map the high-dimensional output to a low-dimensional latent space. This is followed by the construction of the surrogate model in the low-dimensional space. The prediction error in the original space, which includes both the reconstruction error and surrogate model error, is evaluated using different error metrics. Based on the prediction accuracy of the surrogate model, new training points are identified for adaptive improvement of the surrogate model. We present a novel adaptive sampling technique that combines exploration and exploitation to improve the surrogate model accuracy with the fewest possible runs of the expensive physics-based model. Thermo-mechanical analysis of a gas turbine engine blade is used to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed method.

When computational models (either physics-based or data-driven) are used for the sensitivity analysis of engineering systems, the sensitivity estimate is affected by the accuracy and uncertainty of the model. This paper considers global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for situations where both a physics-based model and experimental observations are available, and investigates physics-informed machine learning strategies to effectively combine the two sources of information in order to maximize the accuracy of the sensitivity estimate. Two representative machine learning (ML) techniques are considered, namely, deep neural networks (DNN) and Gaussian process (GP) modeling, and two strategies for incorporating physics knowledge within these techniques are investigated, namely: (i) incorporating loss functions in the ML models to enforce physics constraints, and (ii) pre-training and updating the ML model using simulation and experimental data respectively. Four different models are built for each type (DNN and GP), and the uncertainties in these models are included in the Sobol indices computation. The DNN-based models, with many degrees of freedom in terms of model parameters and training options, are found to result in smaller bounds on the sensitivity estimates when compared to the GP-based models. The proposed methods are illustrated for additive manufacturing and lake temperature modeling examples.

This paper addresses the limitations of Gaussian distribution assumptions in statistical sparse learning, particularly in modeling correlated and heterogeneous data. Conventional Gaussian models often lack robustness towards outliers and underlying distribution assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose the use of the $q$Gaussian distribution, derived from Tsallis entropy maximization, as a robust alternative. This is notably relevant in biostatistics, where the presence of correlated observations and heterogeneity, such as in genetic and longitudinal studies, is prevalent. Our contributions include modeling of correlated data through the re-derived multivariate probability density function from Tsallis entropy maximization, thereby addressing the limitations inherent in conventional Gaussian models. Furthermore, we introduce a novel framework that adapts numerical methods designed to find equilibria in flows to tackle composite optimization problems prevalent in statistical sparse learning. Applying this framework to the Hager-Zhang conjugate gradient algorithm \cite{Hager2005}, we develop a numerically stable and efficient algorithm for sparse statistical learning. The $q$Gaussian distribution, informed by the principle of maximizing Tsallis entropy, presents a viable and flexible alternative to Gaussian-based methods. This paper not only contributes to the theoretical understanding of statistical distributions and optimization techniques, but also paves the way for practical data analysis.

Financial returns are heavy-tailed, and accurate tail risk estimation is central to portfolio risk management. Modern neural generators sample by pushing a simple base distribution through a learned map, and for training stability that map is built from Lipschitz components. This is the binding constraint: a Lipschitz map of a Gaussian is sub-Gaussian, so heavier-tailed targets admit no exact match at any finite Lipschitz constant. The Monge–Ampère equation ties the Brenier map's local distortion to the density ratio $f/(g\circ T)$, so a deeper trough in the target density requires a higher-gain map and yields a higher-variance estimator. The argument needs only bounded distortion, so it covers normalizing flows, flow matching, GANs, and diffusion samplers alike. Semi-Discrete Optimal Transport (SDOT) relaxes the map's regularity rather than the source's tail class. Its power diagram gives every training observation a cell holding exactly $1/N$ of the source measure, and tail observations are reached by crossing a cell boundary rather than by stretching. Our primary experiment sweeps severity over a calibrated Merton jump-diffusion spanning kurtosis 94 to 1,679. SDOT holds tail ratios at $0.85$–$0.94$ with cross-seed standard deviations below $0.025$, while every learned generator either compresses the tails or inflates them with a variance that grows alongside. Further experiments carry the result to real S&P~500 returns and to a 21-year backtest, where SDOT gives the best risk-adjusted market-neutral strategy under CVaR optimization (Sharpe $0.70$, max drawdown $-2.60\%$, against $0.40$ for the next-best generator).

Modern supply chain networks increasingly rely on real-time data to navigate structural uncertainties, market volatility, and operational disruptions. This manuscript bridges the gap between statistical data-driven learning and robust decision-making frameworks in logistics and operations management. We present a comprehensive, mathematically rigorous treatment of supply chain analytics, moving from empirical demand forecasting to optimal inventory and network control under uncertainty. Key topics explored include sample minimization, dynamic programming recursions for time-varying inventory replenishment, network fulfillment frameworks, and advanced distributionally robust optimization (DRO) via transport theory to hedge against rare events. By integrating predictive statistical models with prescriptive control algorithms, such as column generation for vehicle routing and non-homogeneous queueing regimes, this text provides the foundational tools necessary for designing resilient, data-driven automated systems. It serves as both a theoretical blueprint and an algorithmic guide for researchers and practitioners operating at the intersection of machine learning, mathematical optimization, and applied probability.

Contrastive learning has become a cornerstone of modern representation learning, powering CLIP-style models that underpin text-to-image generation, vision-language models, and retrieval across a rapidly growing range of modalities. Despite this empirical success, the expressive power of these architectures remains poorly understood. To gain insight, we study expressivity by adopting a population-level, density-estimation viewpoint: each architecture comprises a parameterized set of densities whose parameters may be chosen to approximate the joint distribution of the modalities. This isolates a question of pure representational capacity: which joint distributions can a given contrastive family of parameterizations approximate to arbitrary accuracy? We show that expressivity is sharply architecture-dependent. For two modalities, the simple two-tower CLIP architecture is a universal approximator. A natural generalization of CLIP, widely used in practice when three or more modalities are present, is based on a loss found by summing over all pairwise similarities. This provably cannot represent arbitrary joint distributions, although we prove that it remains expressive enough to match all pairwise conditionals. Motivated by this gap, we propose Hadamard-CLIP, which adds a single learned weight vector on top of the existing encoders and restores universal approximation of the joint for any number of modalities while preserving CLIP's fast, precomputable-embedding retrieval.

Online decision making often requires navigating a landscape shaped by both dynamic contexts and strategic interactions. In competitive pricing, for example, hotels must account for both dynamic contextual factors and rivals' strategic responses. Existing approaches address only part of this challenge: contextual bandits optimize single-agent decisions using observable features but ignore multi-player interactions, while online matrix games capture strategic behavior through Nash equilibrium but assume fixed payoffs, ignoring contextual information. How should agents act then when strategic payoffs evolve with contextual signals? We introduce online contextual matrix games to integrate contextual information into multi-player online games. We further propose OnGameLearn, an online learning algorithm that efficiently balances exploration and exploitation across both player actions and contexts. This approach comes with statistical guarantees: tail bounds for the estimated payoff matrix, the convergence of the estimated Nash equilibrium, the asymptotic normality of the parameter estimators, and the sublinear regret bound. We also develop the notion of policy value in matrix games and develop a doubly robust, $\sqrt{T}$-consistent estimator for it. Across simulated studies and a real-world hotel pricing application, we find that OnGameLearn effectively navigates the intertwined challenges of strategic and contextual decision-making.

Active inference selects actions by minimising an expected free energy functional over predicted futures. However, adding an expectation over yet-unobserved outcomes means the free energy functional no longer has a Kullback-Leibler structure, which hinders message passing treatments of inference procedures. We propose an alternative formulation based on a Bethe free energy functional, fully supporting inference by message passing. The epistemic drive is maintained by imposing an information constraint, next to normalisation, marginalisation and form constraints, insisting that the mutual information between future observations, states and parameters given actions must be at least as large as the entropy of the goal prior. For a specific value of the corresponding Karush-Kuhn-Tucker multiplier, the stationary point of this constrained Bethe Lagrangian recovers the expected free energy solution. We show that, as the information demand is varied, the solved multiplier moves through its inactive, interior, and saturated regimes. In the inactive regime the agent's epistemic drive switches off entirely, while in the saturated regime it is maximal. We compare the performance of the constrained Bethe agent on three tasks against EFE and Q-MDP.

Recovering the directed acyclic graph (DAG) of a structural equation model (SEM) from observational data is a central problem in causal discovery. The iterative gradient descent and per-problem hyperparameter tuning of continuous-optimization methods are poorly suited to two practically important regimes: the sample-limited regime, where the number of samples is comparable to or smaller than the number of nodes in the DAG, and the compute-limited regime. This work proposes SURE-Ridge, a non-iterative, closed-form estimator for equal variance linear Gaussian SEM. The method performs parallel node-wise regressions with regularization parameters chosen adaptively by Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE), and applies an adaptive thresholding procedure to extract a DAG from the resulting soft adjacency matrix. Numerical results show that SURE-Ridge achieves the lowest structural Hamming distance in the small-sample regime and the lowest run time across all sample sizes tested, compared with NOTEARS, DAGMA, and GBNSL baselines.

In this paper, we consider methods for the diagonal multi-omics integration of heterogeneous datasets. Several approaches to the nature of biological heterogeneity are analyzed and developed to comprehend more clearly the generated differences. Specifically, the extremal trace problems for the coupled Laplacian on sets homeomorphic to the Stiefel manifold embedded in the complex Euclidean space are investigated. The gradient ascent method for the maximization problem is elaborated in the classical terms of functional analysis, which is of significant interest in itself. On this basis, we introduce a novel characteristic of dataset heterogeneity by employing the norm of the difference between the maximum and minimum points.

In survival analysis the way covariates act on the risk of an event often differs between early and late failure times, yet hazard- and mean-based summaries collapse this variation into a single number. Quantile-based modeling instead describes the full conditional distribution on the original time scale, but existing censored-data methods are either inflexible or produce logically inconsistent crossing quantile curves. We propose a Censored Non-crossing Quantile (CNQ) framework for right-censored data that jointly estimates several conditional survival quantiles and guarantees valid ordering by construction, with flexibility supplied by Kolmogorov-Arnold and Transformer backbones, and we establish a finite-sample excess-risk bound holding jointly across all fitted quantile levels. Across 27 simulation settings and six cohorts the framework attains lower pinball loss than quantile-, hazard- and tree-based competitors whenever the conditional distribution is asymmetric, with interval coverage closer to nominal on all six. In two clinical case studies (METABRIC, breast cancer; FLCHAIN, population mortality) it recovers covariate effects that vary across the survival distribution and would be hidden by a single hazard ratio, and yields coherent individualized quantile milestones. Code: https://github.com/BIG-S2/deepcnq

Instance-wise feature selection is a valuable tool for interpreting labeled data and the predictions of black-box models. In contrast to global feature selection techniques, instance-wise methods dynamically identify important features for each instance. A growing number of methods learn a selector, which identifies important features, and a predictor, which uses these to make predictions. However, these pioneering methods face challenges including information leakage and lack of differentiability, which can slow training. In this paper, we present Hide&Seek, an end-to-end differentiable model for instance-wise feature selection. We jointly learn feature selection and prediction under a single objective without information leakage. Hide&Seek outperforms existing state-of-the-art models across a range of experiments and is fast to train. We achieve this by reformulating feature removal as a differentiable operation where instead of discretely removing features, we replace a proportion of each feature. Training is further stabilized via a parsimony-weight annealing framework.

Dataset alignment is a central step in data analysis across science and engineering, where the goal is to match observations between datasets. Entropic Optimal Transport (EOT) offers a computationally tractable framework for this task by encoding cross-dataset affinities in a transport plan. However, when two datasets are sampled from geometrically similar low-dimensional structures with substantially different sampling densities, the EOT plan may match points by relative sampling density rather than geometric proximity, yielding geometrically misleading correspondences. To address this issue, we propose a density-reweighted EOT framework in which the influence of sampling density on the transport plan can be discounted to a desired degree, ranging from standard EOT to alignment driven purely by underlying geometry. Under suitable regularity conditions, we establish convergence of the reweighted EOT plan to a family of population-level plans whose dependence on sampling density is made explicit. Through simulations, we show that our approach recovers geometrically faithful correspondences, improving over related EOT-based frameworks when datasets exhibit substantial sampling density disparity.

This paper studies the regret analysis for parallel Gaussian process (GP) bandit optimization. The known regret upper bounds for the widely used GP batched upper confidence bound and GP batched Thompson sampling (GP-BTS) suffer from a multiplicative factor with respect to the batch size $Q$. To avoid this degradation, existing analyses require a polynomial number of uncertainty sampling (US) for $Q$ at the beginning of optimization. However, this initial US phase is often ineffective in practice. This paper shows that the regret upper bound without the multiplicative factor on $Q$ can be achieved without the initial US phase, using GP-BTS as an example. Furthermore, we show much better regret upper bounds in the noiseless setting than in the noisy setting, as in the sequential GP bandit setting.

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) aims to collect informative data by optimizing an expected utility reflecting the goals of an experiment. However, this optimization is computationally challenging for common utilities and complex models. This is especially so for sequential or adaptive designs, where design and data collection alternate, so that feedback from already observed data must be taken into account. Most existing BOED research employs information gain as the utility, leading to the expected information gain (EIG) criterion. While EIG is widely useful, it may not always adequately reflect experimental goals. EIG can be viewed as rewarding experiments that produce large positive evidence for the truth on average, but it does not directly control the risk of an experiment producing misleading evidence. Here we consider an alternative criterion, which we call bias against (BA), that prioritizes such control. To address computational challenges when applying this criterion for adaptive design, we consider a policy-based deep adaptive design framework, which has previously been used for the EIG criterion. Minimizing a tractable upper bound on the BA objective is equivalent to maximizing a variance-penalized EIG criterion, and we optimize the latter by approximating it by Monte Carlo and learning design policies using stochastic gradient methods. The differences between BA and EIG designs are demonstrated in several examples including the adaptive design of a complex discrete choice experiment.

Statistical inverse problems have garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing importance of statistical learning theory and functional analytic approaches in the fields of machine learning and artificial intelligence. In this paper, we investigate the stable approximation of the element $u^{\dagger}$ that satisfies the equation $Au = g$, where $A$ is a linear operator that maps a Banach space into an appropriate function space. The function $g$ is observed only through independently and identically distributed data points that are corrupted by noise and assumed to follow an unknown distribution $\rho$. We employ the Tikhonov regularization scheme, leveraging statistical learning techniques and the framework of reproducing kernel Banach spaces to estimate the solution. We establish convergence and derive the convergence rate of the estimated solution with respect to the true solution as the number of data points increases, with the rate expressed in probabilistic terms. The theoretical findings are further supported by numerical experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

The combination of traditional statistical models and neural network (NN) components into semi-structured hybrid models is an intriguing approach to construct models that, ideally, combine traditional interpretability with the unprecedented flexibility of NNs. In order to preserve interpretability, it is usually necessary to restrict the NN components to prevent them from dominating the model. However, existing methods that enforce structural constraints on their NN components severely limit their models' flexibility; in contrast, methods that only enforce weak, indirect constraints lose meaningful interpretability. The method we propose therefore leverages invertible residual neural networks (i-ResNets) to equip generalized linear models with both nonlinear parameter estimation and a flexible correction of their distributional assumptions while always retaining stochastic monotonicity of the modeled distribution in the (formerly linear) predictor. The i-ResNets correspond to a controlled deviation from identity and by constraining their Lipschitz constant one can rigorously limit and quantify how far the hybrid model deviates from its traditional counterpart. This enables a user-specifiable compromise between flexibility and interpretability without limiting the structure of nonlinear and interaction effects that can be learned. Furthermore, we develop specific inherent interpretation techniques for our model and enforce model identifiability through an adapted post-hoc orthogonalization.

Aggregate accuracy hides where models succeed and fail. Estimating conditional performance profiles from gold labels alone is expensive, while cheap auxiliary signals such as LLM-judge scores, pairwise comparisons, confidence scores, and judge-disagreement features can be collected for every benchmark item but are often biased or miscalibrated. We propose LACE (Local Augmented Control-Variate Evaluation), a semi-supervised estimator for conditional LLM evaluation. The key step is local centering: after subtracting the conditional mean of a cheap signal within the target profile region, any linear augmentation has zero conditional mean and therefore cannot change the estimand. The augmentation coefficient is used only for efficiency, and a local ridge control variate combines a gold-label residual mean from the labeled subset with a cheap-signal mean from the full item pool. We prove calibration-free identification, unbiasedness for grouped profiles, local oracle optimality within centered linear augmentations, and first-order adaptivity to the estimated coefficient. The resulting gain formula is governed by a population local $R^2$, which characterizes how the efficiency attainable from the cheap signals varies across profile values. We also derive corresponding estimators for direct paired model gaps and deployment-weighted scores. We empirically evaluate the primary performance-profile estimator on MATH-500, ScienceQA, MMLU, WinoGrande, HellaSwag, TruthfulQA, GSM8K, and ARC.

Identification of dominant polynomial-chaos modes is usually formulated as a sparse-regression problem on a sampled multivariate polynomial dictionary. We develop coded Hankel polynomial chaos (CH-PC), a complementary spectral formulation for dominant-mode identification. A finite generating transform converts PCE coefficients into a coefficient-generating polynomial, and evaluation along a geometric phase orbit produces a finite exponential sum. Its model order and spectral nodes are encoded by low-rank Hankel matrices, while coordinate phase shifts attach root-of-unity labels from which the full polynomial multi-indices are recovered. Coordinate-shifted probes are combined as common-node snapshots, and independent phase encodings provide redundant representations when a single spectral encoding is poorly conditioned. For finite observations, population, finite-data, and observed probes are kept distinct: sampling or quadrature error and observation error enter as separate Hankel perturbations, which are then connected to spectral stability, discrete decoding, and phase voting. For tensor-product candidate sets, the generating kernel factorizes into one-dimensional sums and can be evaluated without assembling the full multivariate PCE design matrix. Numerical experiments on sparse Legendre benchmarks and a stochastic Darcy problem illustrate exact recovery, noise stabilization, unknown-order identification by phase persistence, and dominant-mode recovery for a PDE-generated quantity of interest.

Coresets distill large datasets into small, representative subsets for efficient downstream learning. Yet Optimal Transport (OT)-based selection typically requires intensive computation of transport plans, limiting scalability. We introduce a scalable Sinkhorn coreset method that permits closed-form updates of the entropically regularized OT coupling by allowing non-uniform coreset weights. This produces centroids that generalize k-means via soft assignments. We establish asymptotic consistency of the selected measure and Lipschitz stability to data perturbations, providing accuracy and robustness guarantees. Across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, the proposed method achieves competitive or improved approximation quality while substantially reducing runtime compared to Wasserstein- and standard Sinkhorn-based coreset selection, especially at large scale.

We study generalized linear bandits with memory, an endogenous non-stationary setting in which rewards depend on past actions through a finite memory matrix. Building on prior work for linear models (Clerici et al., 2024), we show that the previously known $\tilde{O}(T^{3/4})$ regret bound stems from a loose analysis, and we provide a sharpened analysis that recovers a $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret rate in the linear case. We then extend this improvement to generalized linear models and propose a block-wise algorithm based on shrunken confidence bounds. Our algorithm achieves a regret bound of $\tilde{O}\left(\sqrt{mT} + d\sqrt{T} + \sqrt{\kappa}\, d^{2} m^{1/4} T^{1/4} + \kappa d^{2} \right)$, where $d$ denotes the feature dimension, $m$ the memory length, and $\kappa$ a curvature parameter of the link function. This attains a $\sqrt{T}$-type rate despite nonlinear rewards and memory effects. To the best of our knowledge, this analysis provides a unified treatment of memory-induced non-stationarity and nonlinear link functions, while ensuring that the leading regret term is independent of the curvature of the link function. We conduct numerical experiments that are consistent with our theoretical findings.

Reinforcement learning has gained increasing attention as a data-driven approach for stock trading. However, learning a policy that is both profitable and stable remains challenging due to non-stationary market behaviour and noisy reward signals. Auxiliary tasks are often used to improve representation learning and stabilize training, yet they are usually designed manually and depend heavily on prior assumptions about targets and prediction horizons. Such fixed designs may not remain suitable across changing market regimes. In this work, we propose a self-supervised framework that automatically discovers auxiliary tasks to support reinforcement learning for stock trading. The auxiliary tasks are formulated as General Value Functions so that their predictions enrich the learned state representation and assist policy optimization. The framework consists of two networks. The main network learns the trading policy along with the auxiliary predictions, while the secondary network generates the definitions of auxiliary tasks through learned cumulants and discount factors. These tasks are updated using a meta gradient mechanism that accounts for their long-term impact on trading performance and improves training stability. We evaluate the proposed approach across four major equity indices: DJI, FTSE, Sensex, and TAIEX. The empirical results demonstrate that automatically discovered auxiliary tasks lead to more robust learning and improved trading performance compared to existing baselines.

We study how many observations are needed to determine the causal direction between two linearly related variables. Classical LiNGAM theory shows that independent non-Gaussian disturbances identify the direction, but does not quantify the difficulty when the causal effect is weak or the disturbances are nearly Gaussian. Let $\beta$ bound the absolute structural coefficient from below, let $\nu$ measure each standardized disturbance's distance from Gaussianity, and let the disturbance scales lie in $[\underline\sigma,\overline\sigma]$. We prove the sharp local minimax law \[ N_2^\star(\beta,\nu,\delta) \asymp \frac{\log(1/\delta)} {d_\beta^2+\beta^2\nu^2}, \qquad d_\beta= \left[\beta^2- \left(1-\frac{\underline\sigma^2}{\overline\sigma^2}\right)\right]_+. \] Previous theory established population identifiability or assumed a fixed separation between the two directions. By contrast, we establish the sharp sample complexity as a joint function of edge strength, distance from Gaussianity, and scale uncertainty, and characterize when identification comes from non-Gaussian dependence or from covariance alone. The proof was independently generated with GPT-5.6 Sol in Codex's Ultra mode during a two-hour session. The human author supplied the prompt and was responsible only forchecking the proof and revising and polishing the manuscript.

Language models are compared by their held-out per-token cross-entropy risk—the quantity scaling laws are fitted to. We show that it cannot be consistently estimated. Consistency, or convergence to the estimand, is defined relative to a possible state of the world: a pair consisting of a data-generating distribution and a model we turn out to train. Quantifying over models as well as data-generating mechanisms is essential, because what decides whether a model's risk is estimable is a tail property of the distribution its weights induce, which no sample reveals. The per-token cross-entropy risk is hard to estimate because of a topological fact: among the possible states, finite risk and infinite risk each lie arbitrarily close to every instance of the other. Consequently no estimator—not merely the holdout average—is consistent at every state at which the risk is defined. Worse, inconsistent estimation persists under both bounding the expected sequence length and restricting to full-support models; and in that restricted setting the states at which inconsistency occurs are even dense. Two interesting ways out are identified, and neither is free. Way out 1: using a bounded context window, we can floor a model's next-token probabilities, making its risk finite exactly when the data-generating distribution has finite expected sequence length—a new, statistical rationale for a choice that was made on computational grounds, though the assumption it substitutes is itself beyond the reach of any test. Way out 2: reporting the risk only when it falls below a threshold fixed in advance restores consistency, at no cost to what model selection actually requires—but we need to recognize that the goal of estimation is revised.