Papers

In transfer-learning settings, a model derived from abundant surrogate labels may be deployed in a target population where gold-standard outcomes are unobserved. Evaluating its target performance is essential for determining whether decisions based on the model remain reliable, yet it is difficult when gold labels are scarce, and covariate distributions differ across data sources. We study a three-sample setting with a small gold-labeled source, a larger surrogate-labeled source, and an unlabeled target. Under conditional transportability, we evaluate the surrogate-derived model against the latent gold-standard outcome in the target population. We propose cross-fitted estimators that transport information from the two labeled sources through source-specific density ratios. We also combine outcome-regression augmentation with a kernel correction for estimating the model near a threshold, accounting for uncertainty from all three samples. We establish asymptotically linear inference for TPR and FPR, consistency and pointwise inference for the ROC curve, and asymptotically normal inference for AUC. Simulations assess bias, coverage, and sensitivity to bandwidth and relative sample sizes. A retrospective temporal validation on Chatbot Arena and a semi-synthetic ACS-Income study provide validation in real-world AI applications.

Designing effective trading strategies using reinforcement learning remains challenging due to delayed and noisy rewards, poor exploration, and the difficulty of enforcing explicit risk constraints. In this work, we propose BRaG, a barycenter-based adversarial inverse reinforcement learning framework for stock trading that learns trading behavior from multiple heterogeneous expert strategies. BRaG aggregates expert demonstrations using a performance-weighted Wasserstein barycenter, yielding a stable pseudo-expert representation that captures shared structure across diverse trading styles. This representation is used to pretrain a trading policy via adversarial imitation learning, which alleviates unstable exploration during reinforcement learning. The pretrained policy is subsequently refined using reinforcement learning with true market rewards. To ensure risk-aware decision-making, BRaG incorporates control barrier functions that constrain action execution and regularize policy learning to satisfy drawdown limits. We evaluate the proposed approach on four major global equity markets, including the US, UK, Indian, and Taiwanese indices. Across all the markets, the proposed approach achieves stronger performance than both classical trading rules and recent deep reinforcement learning methods, while exhibiting more stable risk characteristics.

Diffusion models have recently shown strong potential for multivariate time-series anomaly detection by learning the distribution of normal data through iterative denoising. Existing diffusion-based approaches, however, typically perform anomaly detection after completing the reverse diffusion process, relying primarily on the final reconstructed signal and overlooking informative representations produced during denoising. This design incurs substantial computational cost and limits the use of intermediate diffusion information for anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose FirstDiff, a diffusion-based anomaly detection framework based on the observation that the predicted diffusion noise at the initial reverse-diffusion evaluation already contains sufficient information for accurate anomaly detection. FirstDiff models the statistical distribution of predicted diffusion noise under normal behavior using validation data, enabling anomaly inference from a single denoising-network evaluation rather than completing the reverse diffusion trajectory. To model complex temporal and inter-sensor dependencies, FirstDiff employs a Diffusion Transformer as the denoising backbone. Extensive experiments on five public benchmark datasets demonstrate that FirstDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance while reducing diffusion inference from the full reverse trajectory to a single denoising-network evaluation.

The popular CART algorithm for regression trees combines a greedy splitting rule with a stopping rule, but while the splitting rule has been well studied, the statistical role of stopping rules is less well understood. Meanwhile, although regression trees fit using Bayesian methods or via empirical risk minimization (ERM) have been shown to be spatially adaptive to local smoothness and anisotropy, it is unknown whether CART can achieve the same adaptation. We address these gaps by proving that, under spatially heterogeneous and anisotropic smoothness and appropriate structural assumptions on the regression function and covariate distribution, CART with the minimum impurity decrease (MID) stopping rule and a suitable threshold achieves pointwise rates that are minimax up to logarithmic factors. These rates hold simultaneously over all points in the domain. Moreover, we prove that spatial adaptation cannot be achieved under the widely used minimum leaf size stopping rule. Together, these results establish a precise statistical role for the MID stopping rule and provide a theoretical basis for the empirical success of CART.

Neural representations have become a central tool for studying the internal mechanisms of modern AI models, yet their complex high-dimensional structure makes them difficult to interpret. We show that classification tasks give rise to a universal representational geometry, shared across state-of-the-art models in vision, audio, and language processing. The key structure is that within-class variability is not random in representation space. Instead, its classifier-relevant component has strong and structured correlations with the class's own centroid and with the centroids of its competing classes. Building on this observation, we derive an analytical mean-field theory governed mainly by the variability along true-class and rival-class centroid coordinates, together with a global renormalization of the class radius that compensates for the non-Gaussian statistics of real representations. The theory accurately predicts classification accuracy across architectures and modalities. The relevant geometric quantities improve systematically with model scale, mirroring the observed gains in accuracy. A striking feature of the theory is its sparsity: accurate prediction requires only a small set of centroid coordinates associated with the true class and its strongest rivals - connecting our framework to sparse-feature extraction approaches such as sparse autoencoders. Together, these results provide a parsimonious predictive theory of neural representations and suggest that classification in deep networks is governed by a sparse, centroid-aligned structure embedded within the full high-dimensional representation space.

Machine-learning detectors for power-system cyberattacks are themselves attack surfaces, and quantum machine learning has been proposed for them. We benchmark fidelity-kernel SVMs and variational classifiers against six tuned classical models on public power-system attack data (Mississippi State/ORNL), across white-box, transfer, decision-based black-box, and poisoning attacks. Our headline finding is methodological: the benchmark's answers are set by the evaluator's choices before the models. Eight choices – six in the evaluation protocol, two in the tuning the benchmark itself runs – each reversed or moved a conclusion at fixed models. The largest is the split: the row-level protocol scores 0.905 macro-F1 where holding whole source files out leaves 0.594, and in the capped matched-dimensionality regime the quantum arm sits within noise of chance with the classical arm 0.024 above it. A fidelity kernel looks most robust until attacked directly (retention 0.886 to 0.064); a mis-fitted surrogate manufactures a 10x asymmetry; an unseeded black-box attack moves 75% between restarts. A positive control explains the accuracy null: the labels, not the pipeline. We give the control that catches each choice and release the seeded benchmark.

Encrypted traffic classification is vital for network security, yet real-world deployments are inherently sensitive to rare but high-loss errors such as misclassification of malicious traffic. The encrypted traffic foundation model, as a promising general-purpose technique, can achieve impressive overall performance. However, employing standard objectives such as empirical risk minimization often overlooks high-risk tail events, and commonly used performance metrics hardly reflect robustness limitations in risk-sensitive scenarios. Directly applying robust optimization objectives, such as conditional value-at-risk, to post-training is computationally prohibitive for large models, as identifying high-loss samples exhausts substantial computation. To this end, we propose Pre-Evaluation Robust Optimization (PERO), an efficient robust post-training framework for encrypted traffic foundation models. PERO employs a lightweight proxy to estimate sample-wise risk and selects a subset of high-risk samples to update the foundation model, decoupling risk estimation from expensive large-model optimization. Extensive experiments on typical encrypted traffic datasets show that PERO achieves competitive or superior robustness and average performance compared to outstanding robust post-training methods, while significantly reducing computational and memory costs.

Many prediction problems arise with data collected in groups. In this setting, hierarchical conformal prediction (HCP) (Lee et al., 2026) provides distribution-free prediction sets for a new observation from a previously unseen group under hierarchical exchangeability. In many applications, however, prediction is conducted only after a few observations from the group of interest have already been collected. Standard HCP cannot leverage these observations, as its required symmetry conditions do not hold in this setting. At the same time, the initial sample may still be too small for standard conformal prediction applied within the test group to be informative. We develop predictive inference methods for this setting. Our proposed method, Generalized HCP (GHCP), restores the relevant symmetry needed for conformal inference by assigning the test group a randomly "donated" reference group size. GHCP further leverages the initial test group observations to improve the quality of the nonconformity scores for prediction within that group. To improve efficiency, we introduce a variant that restricts the set of eligible donors. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method through simulations and an illustration on the American Community Survey dataset.

The problem of networked information aggregation, studied in Kearns et al. (2026), involves a group of learners situated on the vertices of a directed acyclic graph $G$, each learning a linear predictor $\widehat Y$ for a fixed random variable $Y$ given access to a local feature, as well as the predictors learnt by its parents. Learning proceeds iteratively, with learners ordered according to a topological sort of $G$. The main quantity of interest is the error incurred by the current learner, constrained to this flow of information, with respect to the best linear predictor using all the features seen so far. When the studied error is the MSE, i.e., $\mathbb{E} (\widehat Y - Y)^2$, Kearns et al. (2026) show that the error is at most $O(1/\sqrt{D})$ along a path of length $D$. They also obtain a hard instance where the MSE is lower bounded by $\Omega(1/D)$, leaving the correct order open. In this work, we resolve this central open problem, and obtain a family of worst case problem instances with a MSE lower bound of $\Omega(1/\sqrt{D})$. By exploiting invariances in the structure of the learnt predictors, our analysis generalizes to all convex loss functions $\ell(\widehat Y, Y)$ satisfying regularity conditions which include strong convexity in a ball around the origin, and that the ideal predictor minimizing the population loss is positively correlated with the label. We show that networked information aggregation on a gaussian instance in our worst case family incurs an $\ell$-error lower bounded by $\Omega(1/\sqrt{D})$ with respect to this ideal predictor. We demonstrate that a variety of common losses satisfy these regularity conditions. In particular, the logistic loss satisfies them, and hence our analysis also closes the gap between the upper and lower bounds in Bateni et al. (2026).

We propose a methodology based on the standard ReLU Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to make predictions and quantify their uncertainty. Classically, people rely on linear, non-linear, or non-parametric kernel methods to fit and then predict the time series. As the universal approximation ability was revealed for DNN, its application has become more and more popular for prediction tasks in various scientific areas. However, the corresponding uncertainty quantification has not been studied thoroughly. Particularly, the uncertainty in prediction will consist of two parts: (1) the future variability; (2) the estimation variability within training data. To capture both variabilities, we build the so-called pertinent prediction interval (PPI) with the DNN model estimator. We first explore the consistency property of the DNN estimator with beta-mixing dependent data. Subsequently, we show that the implied forward bootstrap series is still beta-mixing and possesses the same stationary distribution as the original time series in probability, which is a key condition to enable the PPI. Lastly, the desired PPI is built after imposing minimal conditions on the limiting distribution of predictive roots. Simulations and real-data analysis are deployed to challenge our approach with standard non-parametric methods.

Constraint-based causal discovery like PC and FCI depends on its conditional independence test. Partial correlation and the Generalised Covariance Measure (GCM) detect only the conditional covariance of residuals, so they miss dependence in the mean's nonlinear part, the scale, and the tails. Tests that detect more are biased inside PC, not scalable, only continuous, or not aimed at the tails. Our Generalised Feature Covariance Measure (GFCM) is valid, sensitive beyond covariance, robust inside PC, and applicable to mixed-type data. It runs the GCM template on a configurable set of residual features with conditional mean zero (centered moments and conditional quantile indicators), pooled in blocks and combined by the Cauchy rule, with a growing-knot spline nuisance at regression cost. We contribute (i) a centering result making the scale feature Neyman orthogonal, where the uncentered version is biased; (ii) the orientation asymmetry the mean-quantile construction creates inside PC, and its fix; (iii) a Phi-faithfulness theory under which PC with GFCM recovers the CPDAG of the set's detection class; and (iv) a benchmark of CI tests sensitive beyond covariance on synthetic data, semi-synthetic tail injections, and PC discovery on random DAGs. Under size-corrected power, GFCM recovers the scale and tail edges the covariance family misses and alone keeps power at the deep conditioning sets PC issues. It stays calibrated as n grows, whereas FFCI, the boosted GCM, and the partial copula test do not, and it handles mixed-type data directly. Inside PC at scale it attains the lowest skeleton SHD among tests that stay calibrated, while the others inflate false edges. Validity rests on an additive nuisance, and the tail advantage is shown on simulated and semi-synthetic data, as no fully real benchmark with both heavy tails and known structure exists.

In this paper, we propose SHOPCA (Shape Operator-based Principal Component Analysis), a novel method for unsupervised metric learning and dimensionality reduction that incorporates differential geometric information into the covariance structure of classical PCA. SHOPCA regularizes the global covariance matrix using the mean shape operator, defined as the average of the absolute local shape operators estimated from the data manifold, steering principal components toward directions of both maximum variance and informative curvature. A single trace-normalized mixing coefficient $\alpha$ controls the regularization, recovering standard PCA at $\alpha = 0$ and a curvature-driven embedding as $\alpha \to \infty$. We further introduce a fully unsupervised criterion for selecting $\alpha$ based on the spectral eigengap of the regularized covariance matrix, maximizing the relative separation between the top-$d$ and remaining eigenvalues without using class labels. We evaluate SHOPCA on more than 50 real-world benchmark datasets, comparing it with PCA, ISOMAP, and UMAP using Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), Normalized Mutual Information (NMI), Fowlkes-Mallows index (FM), and V-measure. Results show that SHOPCA consistently improves clustering quality over PCA across a broad range of datasets and surpasses UMAP on small-sample settings, where iterative neighborhood-based manifold estimation can degrade. SHOPCA is computationally tractable, parameter-efficient, and applicable to domains requiring fully unsupervised, geometry-aware dimensionality reduction.

High-throughput single-cell and spatial transcriptomic technologies provide high-resolution snapshots of heterogeneous cellular states, but their destructive nature prevents repeated measurements of the same cells over time. Consequently, temporal and spatial dynamics must be inferred from independently sampled, unaligned cell populations, making it challenging to reconstruct developmental trajectories. Optimal transport (OT) offers a geometric framework for aligning cell populations and inferring developmental trajectories, but many existing approaches focus on modeling the evolution of distributions of cells in gene expression space rather than the relational structure encoded by gene expression networks. To address this limitation, we introduce a geometric framework for analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of gene expression networks through embeddings in Gromov–Wasserstein (GW) space. By representing each developmental stage as a graph combining gene expression and spatial proximity, our approach enables comparisons of network structure across time, continuous interpolation between developmental stages via GW geodesics, and quantification of network-level changes using Ollivier-Ricci curvature. We evaluate our framework on a spatiotemporal transcriptomic Drosophila dataset and show that GW geodesic interpolations reproduce main trends in curvature dynamics observed in empirical gene expression networks. Agreement with higher-order Co-Optimal Transport (COOT) distances, which jointly represent spatial and temporal information, further validates the framework and suggests that hypernetwork representations successfully record salient biological changes across time. In general, our approach provides a unified geometric approach to study dynamically evolving biological networks.

The increasing availability of large and complex datasets across many scientific disciplines has led to widespread adoption of machine learning (ML) for prediction. However, most ML algorithms focus on point estimation and provide limited information about predictive uncertainty or the conditional distribution of the response, restricting their ability to characterize rare or extreme outcomes. We develop QXGB, a quantile-based gradient boosting framework, and introduce a convolution smoothed loss within it that estimates conditional quantiles for constructing dense cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), exceedance probabilities, and tail behaviour relevant to extreme outcomes. This approach preserves the computational efficiency of extreme gradient boosting while restoring the Hessian information XGBoost relies on for tree splitting, in turn providing interpretable measures of extreme value and exceedance probability predictions. We derive the gradients and Hessians needed to integrate convolution smoothed quantile loss with different kernel specifications into XGBoost, and with simulated data, benchmark this approach against alternative smoothed quantile regression losses, the native quantile objective in the XGBoost Python package, and independent versus multi-output tree estimation. The practical relevance is illustrated in an application predicting fine particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$) in northern California, including periods where levels were elevated due to wildfire smoke. Our results show that convolution smoothed QXGB, particularly when paired with multi-output trees, delivers accurate predictions with near-zero quantile crossing, well-calibrated CDF and exceedance probability estimates, and useful tail characterization for extreme values. Interval estimation is also evaluated as a measure of data spread.

Power-law anisotropy in internal representations has been observed across a wide range of biological and artificial neural systems, from state-of-the-art language models to the mouse cerebral cortex. This anisotropy is a key geometric property of high-dimensional information processing and underlies a variety of theoretical analyses. However, the mechanism by which it emerges from input structure and task-driven learning has remained unclear. Here, we characterize this formation process by exactly solving the learning dynamics of a wide two-layer linear neural network in a teacher–student setting with power-law input and teacher structures. We show that, in the feature-learning regime, the local power-law exponent of the internal-representation spectrum evolves nonmonotonically over the course of training and exhibits up to four distinct asymptotic regimes across modes and training times. By contrast, in the lazy regime, the exponent remains essentially unchanged. We further demonstrate numerically that similar exponent dynamics arise in more realistic nonlinear networks. Together, these results suggest a general mechanism by which the dynamic interaction between input statistics and task structure gives rise to power-law internal representations.

Token-level knowledge distillation (KD) matches two conditional distributions per position, yet the standard objectives compare them pointwise: a Kullback-Leibler gradient is blind to which wrong token receives probability mass. We develop a distributional view in which the teacher is represented not by a single softened output but by a family of multi-temperature views - marginals of the annealing path of its logits - and the student is trained against a geometry-aware aggregate of these views under an embedding-based ground cost. We formalize the resulting design space (mixtures, log-linear pooling, entropic Wasserstein barycenters, and a debiased Sinkhorn-divergence flagship in hub and path forms), prove an exact collapse result showing log-linear pooling of tempered views is equivalent to a single temperature, and give a multi-marginal Schrodinger-bridge reading that yields falsifiable predictions. On instruction-tuned Pythia pairs, experiments yield three empirical laws: (i) dispersion law - the benefit of multi-temperature aggregation grows monotonically with the effective temperature dispersion of the views, not with their number; (ii) dispersed views unlock the aggregation operator - the barycenter separates from the arithmetic mixture exactly when transport-based aggregation starts to beat averaging; and (iii) two-regime picture governed by the ceiling gap $\Gamma=\mathrm{PPL}_{\mathrm{SFT}}-\mathrm{PPL}_{T}$: when the fine-tuned teacher barely beats a supervised student the gentle transport objective is the best KD loss but no KD beats supervised fine-tuning, whereas at a real ceiling the ranking inverts - and the sign of the fidelity-generalization correlation flips. We argue that "which distillation loss is the best" is not a fixed property of the loss but a function of $\Gamma$.

Parameter identification of stochastic dynamical systems driven by mixed noises is challenging due to intractable likelihood functions. We propose PENN-GMD, a parameter estimation neural network that maps partially observed trajectories to a Gaussian mixture distribution (GMD) over the system parameters. Unlike conventional uncertainty estimates, the GMD employs full covariance matrices to explicitly reveal parameter couplings and multi-modal likelihood structures. The network is trained by minimizing the negative log-likelihood via a surjective parameterization that hard-encodes all GMD constraints, thereby approximating the true likelihood. We validate the method on five numerical examples with increasing complexity, including systems driven by fractional Gaussian and Lévy noises, oscillators with colored noise, coupled neurons under different observability, and an aeroelastic airfoil with unidentifiable stochastic disturbances. Results demonstrate that PENN-GMD accurately recovers likelihood distributions, captures parameter couplings, and naturally diagnoses non-identifiability through variance broadening or mode splitting. These capabilities establish PENN-GMD as a practical tool for uncertainty-aware parameter identification in complex stochastic systems where conventional likelihood-based methods are infeasible.

Population-based adaptive importance sampling (AIS) methods use a set of proposal densities to approximate complex target distributions. Their performance is commonly assessed through effective sample size (ESS) and related weight-based diagnostics, which measure the concentration of normalized importance weights. However, a large ESS only indicates that the normalized sample weights are not strongly concentrated; it does not describe how the proposal components are arranged in the sampling space. In population-based AIS, several proposal components may generate samples in the same region of the target, so the sample weights can appear well balanced even though the effective number of distinct proposal components is small. This letter introduces the effective number of proposals (ENP), a similarity-aware proposal-level diagnostic for population-based AIS. ENP combines the total normalized weight assigned to each proposal with a redundancy measure computed from similarities among target-weighted samples, estimating the number of non-redundant empirical proposal contributions to the approximation. We establish basic effective-number properties and show that ENP detects proposal collapse and duplication missed by standard ESS. We also illustrate its use as a targeted feedback signal for proposal rejuvenation.

Pretrained diffusion models represent image distributions through a continuum of progressively smoothed distributions. This multiscale structure organizes generation from global structure to fine detail and supports high-quality, diverse samples. We exploit the same multiscale diffusion prior for linear imaging inverse problems. Rather than using the pretrained model only as a denoiser in an outer iteration, we define a surrogate likelihood whose center is aligned with the clean-image coordinate and whose covariance accounts for residual diffusion uncertainty. This construction defines an explicit surrogate posterior path, from which we derive continuous posterior dynamics. A tunable Langevin component supports target tracking and allows the amount of posterior exploration to be adapted to the application. We prove endpoint consistency and a finite-horizon tracking bound and, in the exact-score setting, first-order weak accuracy. For computation, we derive the Posterior-Dynamics Implicit–Explicit sampler (PD-IMEX), a stable method using one score evaluation per diffusion scale and an implicit data-consistency update. Experiments on deblurring, super-resolution, and inpainting show strong reconstruction quality at 100 score evaluations, coarse-grid stability, and controllable fidelity–diversity behavior.

Sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) seeks the minimal subspace of the predictors that captures the full conditional distribution of the response, which is known as the central subspace (CS). When the response is multivariate, the problem becomes considerably more challenging, particularly when the sample size is limited. Existing methods face different limitations:inverse regression approaches rely on strong distributional assumptions and matrix inversion, and their multi-response extensions suffer from severe slice sparsity; forward regression methods depend on computationally intensive iterative smoothing whose cost grows with the response dimension; and deep learning-based approaches demand large amounts of labeled data. To circumvent these shortcomings, we propose an SDR framework based on the generalized Stein's lemma. Our method constructs a cross-moment matrix between the multivariate response and the marginal score function of the predictors, and recovers the CS via its singular value decomposition. The proposed method does not rely on the linearity condition, avoids matrix inversion as well as iterative smoothing, and can leverage unlabeled data when available. We establish convergence guarantees for the proposed estimator under standard regularity conditions. Moreover, we propose a practical rank-selection algorithm to estimate the dimension of the CS. Extensive simulation studies and a real data application demonstrate that the proposed methods consistently outperform existing approaches across a variety of settings, particularly in moderate-dimensional, label-scarce scenarios with high noise levels.

Transformers applied to spatial imperfect-information games must represent map geometry while tracking hidden entities through time. We ask whether geometry-aware positional encodings improve these capabilities, without claiming a new positional encoding. We construct a four-level benchmark on a hexagonal naval pursuit game: controlled geometry and topology probes, an exact-Bayes hidden-target tracking task, offline policy imitation at 1k and 10k games, and 7,200 fixed-seed games against three legacy opponents. Across matched Transformer backbones, HexRoPE reduces exact-belief posterior cross-entropy relative to no positional encoding by 0.278 on D6-transformed test orbits and 0.329 on a larger map; both hierarchical-bootstrap confidence intervals exclude zero, and both Holm-adjusted p-values are below 0.001. At 1k games, HexRoPE improves policy action accuracy by 4.63 percentage points over no encoding and 2.05 points over rectangular relative bias; the gains shrink to 1.55 and 0.41 points at 10k games. However, HexRoPE does not improve aggregate gameplay win rate: its paired effect over no encoding is -1.56 percentage points (95% CI [-4.50, 1.17]). Rectangular relative bias is strongest on D6 belief consistency but fails sharply when extrapolating from radius 3 to radius 4, while graph bias provides only a small blocked-edge gain. The results show that geometric inductive bias improves belief estimation and data-efficient imitation, but those representation gains do not automatically produce stronger closed-loop play.

We consider nonparametric regression when the association between a response and its covariates changes across an unknown partition of a spatial domain. The proposed estimator learns the partition and the cluster-specific regression functions jointly. A neural network depending only on location determines cluster membership, while separate neural networks describe the covariate–response relationship within the clusters. An annealed softmax relaxation permits gradient-based estimation of the otherwise discrete assignments. Graph-Laplacian and occupancy penalties are used to discourage fragmented regions and degenerate solutions. We establish identifiability up to label permutation, bound partition error under a margin condition, and decompose prediction risk into regression and assignment components. The resulting rate agrees with that of an oracle estimator when the partition is estimated sufficiently accurately. Simulations show that joint estimation is useful when regression surfaces change abruptly across spatial boundaries, including settings with nonlinear effects, unequal region sizes, preferential sampling, and spatially correlated errors. Finally, a real data analysis is provided to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Low-rank matrix decompositions can uncover patterns and structure in data and have a number of different applications across many disciplines. Extensions to "joint" low-rank decompositions have been proposed to link datasets from different modalities. While these methods enable the discovery of common patterns across modalities, they require that all the multimodal data share one or more dimensions. We propose a new analysis method, PathFinder, that enables co-analysis of datasets that do not necessarily all share a dimension. The key insight is that as long as pairs or subgroups of matrices do share some dimension, and that there are one or more paths that link across the data matrices, a global joint decomposition can be sought out. This enables the joint estimation of common patterns across different modalities, species, or scales, where a one-to-one mapping across all data along some dimension is not necessarily available. We show that PathFinder is a general umbrella under which many matrix decomposition methods fall as special cases. It can be used to discover common patterns across disparate datasets and to make predictions for missing data or modalities.

Watermarking provides a principled way to authenticate text generated by large language models (LLMs). In practice, however, the final text may be mixed-source, with watermark evidence surviving at only a subset of token positions after rewriting, insertion, deletion, or paraphrasing. Although prior work has studied global detection of watermark signals, when such signals can be localized remains unclear. We formulate watermark localization as a token-level multiple-testing problem based on pivotal statistics, with a latent indicator recording whether watermark dependence survives at each position. Under an asymptotic regime indexed by exponents for signal sparsity, next-token concentration, and effective-vocabulary growth, we derive a sharp boundary for global detection and phase transitions for discovery and classification within the class of coordinatewise pivot-based localization rules. We show that discovery is strictly harder than detection and that consistent classification is impossible across the parameter regime within this class. We then develop an adaptive thresholding method that does not require knowledge of the exponents or time-varying next-token distributions, but uses a data-driven estimate of the surviving watermark fraction. The method attains the optimal discovery boundary and near-optimal discovery power relative to homogeneous pivot-based rules. Simulations support the theoretical phase transitions, while experiments on model-generated texts demonstrate practical localization performance under common edit mechanisms.

Objective: Small-sample molecular classification requires feature selectors that identify predictive, stable, and nonredundant subsets for binary and multiclass outcomes. We propose ARISE (Adaptive Residual-Informed Stability Ensemble), which integrates complementary relevance signals, class-balanced stability assessment, residual-informed redundancy control, and multiclass pairwise coverage. Methods: ARISE combines seven percentile-normalized relevance components through 15 predefined profiles, adaptively weighted by nested inner cross-validation. It was evaluated on five molecular datasets, eight feature-set sizes, three fixed classifiers (k-nearest neighbours, support vector machine, and random forest), and six filter comparators. Generalization was estimated by five-fold outer cross-validation repeated 50 times using balanced accuracy, macro-F1, and Cohen's kappa. Results: Across 210,000 held-out assessments, ARISE ranked first in all 15 dataset-metric combinations. Equal-dataset means were 0.793 for balanced accuracy, 0.776 for macro-F1, and 0.725 for kappa, exceeding the strongest aggregate comparator by 0.022, 0.023, and 0.028, respectively. Performance remained strong across compact feature sets, although the optimal budget differed by dataset. Conclusion: ARISE provides a transparent, adaptive framework that jointly addresses relevance, stability, redundancy, and multiclass discrimination. Its consistent results across datasets, classifiers, metrics, and feature-set sizes support further evaluation for small-sample molecular classification.

Modern generative models increasingly produce distribution-valued outputs, such as predicted cellular responses to genetic perturbations in single-cell genomics. While these models provide valuable auxiliary information, they are inherently imperfect, creating a need for statistical methods that leverage their predictions without relying on their correctness. We propose generation-powered inference (GPI), a general framework for improving inference on distribution-valued parameters using auxiliary generative models. Focusing on Wasserstein barycenters and related distributional functionals, we introduce a function-valued bridge representation that transforms inference in the nonlinear Wasserstein space into estimation of a mean function in a Hilbert space, enabling an augmented estimation framework analogous to prediction-powered inference. We develop a family of GPI estimators with optimal information borrowing, establish consistency, asymptotic normality, and simultaneous confidence bands, and derive valid inference for linear functionals and Wasserstein distances. Simulation studies demonstrate efficiency gains over labeled-data-only methods and robust performance under generative model misspecification. We illustrate the proposed framework using a Perturb-seq study of K562 cells, where synthetic perturbation responses generated by the State foundation model are used to improve inference for pathway-level consensus gene expression distributions associated with perturbations of the 40S ribosome module.

This study investigates the methodological and theoretical properties of session handover in applications that use large language models. A task may continue in a new session when the context reaches the model's input limit, when the application restarts, or when another agent is asked to finish the task. The application must then decide which information from the earlier session to pass on. We formulate handover as the transfer of a task-relative in-context learning (ICL) state and distinguish exact recovery of earlier material from preservation of the target distribution. Under an exogeneity condition, predictive equivalence characterizes the coarsest deterministic sufficient handover and gives a fixed-length bit requirement. The analysis isolates the effects of the memory constraint, the writer, and the continuation procedure, and quantifies the cost of writing before the realized downstream query is known. We propose a three-part record that stores decisions and constraints exactly, uses task-justified statistics for repeated evidence, and retains original observations whose effect is not preserved by those statistics. Gaussian linear regression gives an exact finite-dimensional handover and finite-bit perturbation bounds, while nonparametric regression gives upper and lower bounds that relate memory to squared prediction error. These results provide a theory and method for deciding what a handover must retain and how its memory requirement depends on the continuation task.

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training provides a direct way to align diffusion models with human preferences and task-specific rewards. However, current RL algorithms for diffusion models remain fragmented: reverse-trajectory methods rely on discretized likelihood ratios, whereas forward-matching methods train on reward-labeled noising versions of the rollout samples. This paper shows that these seemingly different losses arise from a single path-space principle. Starting from the regularized diffusion-RL objective, we use importance sampling between sampling SDEs to obtain an explicit policy-gradient estimator on trajectory space. The estimator contains the stochastic Itô integral underlying Flow-GRPO-type updates; we derive an equivalent variance-reduced value-gradient form that recovers the forward-matching structure of AWM and DiffusionNFT. This identifies the empirical gap between these method families as a variance-reduction effect rather than a difference in RL principle. The derivation yields a unified design space organized by value-gradient estimation, weight functions, and sampling choices. Within this space, we propose a multi-sample KDE value-gradient estimator that reuses rollout groups, together with scale-bounded weight families that retain stable existing recipes while excluding singular ones. Experiments on SD3.5-M and Qwen-Image models validate the variance-reduction explanation and show that the resulting recipe improves over prior diffusion-RL baselines.

We study online statistical inference for functionals of the return distribution under a fixed policy. The return distribution is estimated by nonparametric distributional temporal-difference learning from a single Markov trajectory. For the Polyak–Ruppert averaged estimator, we prove that its root-$T$ error converges weakly to a centered Gaussian random element in Cramér space. We also prove that, conditionally on the observed trajectory, the root-$T$ difference between the bootstrap and original averages converges weakly to the same Gaussian limit. These results justify bootstrap inference for smooth statistical functionals, including variance, CVaR, expected shortfall, and expectiles. For nonsmooth statistical functionals, we develop a local asymptotic theory for the estimated return CDF over $T^{-1/2}$-neighborhoods of finitely many thresholds, together with its bootstrap analogue. This theory allows us to conduct inference for nonsmooth statistical functionals characterized by CDF equations, including return quantiles.

In offline RL, estimating the optimal action-value function $Q^*$ can be formulated as solving the optimal Bellman equation based solely on offline observations. A fundamental challenge is that the reward function and transition kernel are unknown, so the optimal Bellman operator is not directly observable from data. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework that decouples operator estimation from value function learning. In this approach, we first formulate conditional diffusion models to estimate the reward law and transition kernel, which induces a data-driven approximation of the optimal Bellman operator. We then plug these estimators into the Bellman equation and obtain a deep estimator of $Q^*$ by minimizing the empirical Bellman residual over a neural network function class. Theoretically, we first establish sharp nonasymptotic convergence rates for learning the optimal Bellman operator through an end-to-end analysis of conditional diffusion estimation in total variation distance. We then establish the oracle value-stage rate $\widetilde{\mathcal O}\bigl(n^{-\frac{2\beta}{d_x+d_a+2\beta}}\bigr)$ for the excess Bellman residual risk. Finally, under a concentrability condition, we translate this residual bound into an $L^2$ convergence rate of $\widetilde{\mathcal O}\bigl(n^{-\frac{\beta}{d_x+d_a+2\beta}}\bigr)$ for the resulting deep estimator of $Q^*$, where $d_x$ and $d_a$ denote the dimensions of the state and action spaces, respectively, and $\beta$ denotes the Hölder smoothness index of $Q^*$. Importantly, our theoretical analysis does not rely on completeness assumptions commonly used in deep RL theory. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and its strong empirical performance.