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Quantitative Biology

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Saturday 26 September

Genomics · Cross-listed from cs.AI

AmbiModBench: Benchmarking Gene Perturbation Prediction Beyond Shared Responses

Predicting cellular responses to genetic perturbations helps prioritize experiments in single-cell genomics, where exhaustive measurement is infeasible. While computational models increasingly predict these responses, three evaluation deficiencies obscure what their scores demonstrate. First, absolute metrics cannot separate target-specific predictions from a shared background response. Second, common metrics remain high under gene shuffling, so gene-level accuracy is never verified. Third, a score at one training size says nothing about coverage, which depends on representation-space proximity and response-constraining power. We propose AmbiModBench, a specificity-aware, gene-resolved and coverage-aware benchmark. It pairs every score with a training-mean reference fitted on the same split, screens each readout by gene-coordinate permutation, and links embedding distance to response variation. Across K562, RPE1 and Norman, strong absolute scores largely reflect shared background rather than target-specific learning. Widely used readouts track response magnitude distributions rather than the affected genes. Detectable gain follows representation-space coverage rather than training-set size. Nonetheless, on RPE1 the protocol yields a reproducible target-specific gain across five additional splits and three gene selections, which absolute scores alone cannot distinguish from shared background.
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All authors Sikai Huang, Zhiwen Yang, Kai Yu, Jiayuan Chen, Stan Z. Li

Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Recovery-Directed Symbolic Distillation of Neural Likelihoods

Amortized neural likelihoods enable computationally expensive inference for models with analytically intractable or unspecified likelihoods, but their black-box nature limits interpretability. We introduce a symbolic distillation pipeline that converts trained neural likelihoods into explicit, interpretable expressions optimized for efficient parameter estimation. Our approach uses a recovery-directed objective to guide symbolic regression toward expressions that preserve parameter-recovery accuracy rather than merely approximating the likelihood function. Candidate expressions are evaluated on held-out datasets and selected using a criterion that jointly accounts for expression complexity, parameter-recovery performance, and distributional distance from the learned likelihood. We evaluate the pipeline on the diffusion decision model, a classical cognitive model, whose analytically tractable likelihood provides ground truth for controlled evaluation. The proposed recovery-directed objective improves parameter recovery over standard symbolic-regression objectives. The resulting symbolic likelihoods enable over 100 times faster parameter evaluation than both neural likelihoods and, when available, the exact likelihood, while maintaining a manageable loss in precision. We further demonstrate these computational benefits in Bayesian hierarchical inference on empirical data. Our pipeline provides a lightweight interface for integrating symbolic distillation with existing neural-likelihood estimation methods and can be adapted to a range of simulation-based inference settings.
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Neurons and Cognition

From Signals to Trajectories: A Primer on Low-Dimensional Dynamics in Human EEG and MEG

Neural activity unfolds not as a set of independent signals, but as a coordinated dynamical process that can be described as a point moving through a high-dimensional state space. This perspective has contributed substantially to recent developments in systems neuroscience, especially through studies of directly recorded neuronal population activity, but remains comparatively underused in non-invasive human recordings such as EEG and MEG. In this primer, we present a neural trajectory analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) as an accessible route into extending the concepts of neural trajectories in state space to human electrophysiology. We explain how EEG/MEG activity can be organized into neural state representations, projected onto axes organized by decreasing covariance, truncated into low-dimensional representations, and visualized as trajectories that capture how distributed activity evolves over time. We show how trajectory geometry can be used to compare conditions and relate neural dynamics to behavior or clinical outcomes. An example of EEG motor execution and imagery, accompanied by a tutorial notebook, illustrates the workflow from conventional EEG summaries to trajectory-based analysis. We also clarify the limits of PCA, including its linear, variance-driven nature, and discuss EEG/MEG-specific challenges such as spatial mixing, preprocessing sensitivity, validation, and overinterpretation. Finally, we situate PCA within a broader family of state-space methods. By making neural trajectories practical and interpretable, this primer offers a guide for bringing the conceptual framework of population-level dynamics into mainstream human cognitive neuroscience.
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All authors Vanessa Hadid, Hamza Abdelhedi, Annalisa Pascarella, Sara A. Solla, Paul Cisek, Karim Jerbi

Friday 25 September

Cell Behavior

A coupled geometric surface and surface reaction-diffusion framework for modelling nuclear mechanics during confined cell migration

Confined cell migration is governed by nuclear and cellular deformation. In this work, we formulate a two-dimensional mathematical framework in which the cell and nuclear membranes are represented as evolving closed surfaces governed by force-balance laws incorporating surface tension, bending elasticity, and external mechanical interactions. Nuclear mechanics depends on several factors, including chromatin organization and compaction, which are regulated by epigenetic modifications. Molecular regulation at the nuclear periphery is described by a surface reaction-diffusion system posed on the evolving nuclear surface. We apply this coupled framework to an experimentally characterized lung cancer cell model in which the balance between the enzymes SETDB1 and SUV39H1 regulates the peripheral deposition of H3K9me3. Using experimentally measured mechanical parameters, we represent control (Ctrl) and SETDB1 knockout (SETDB1 KO) conditions, which display distinct H3K9me3 distributions, especially at the nuclear periphery. Numerical solutions obtained using the evolving surface finite element method qualitatively reproduce the changes in nuclear mechanics as well as part of the experimentally observed increase in the entry time in SETDB1 KO cells. The model therefore reproduces the direction of the experimental observations, while the residual difference between simulated and measured entry times indicates that the cellular response is multifactorial.
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All authors Francesca Ballatore, Silvia Comunian, Anotida Madzvamuse, Slimane Ait-Si-Ali, Rachele Allena

Genomics

CANN: Commutative Algebra Neural Networks for Virus Classification

The extensive diversity of viral genomes challenges alignment-free representations to capture both nucleotide composition and the higher-order organization of recurring sequence patterns. Conventional $k$-mer representations quantify pattern abundance but do not explicitly encode how these patterns are organized across scales. Here, we introduce CANN, an alignment-free framework that combines persistent commutative-algebraic descriptors with neural representation learning for viral family classification. CANN uses persistent facet descriptors to encode the multiscale organization of $k$-mer patterns and complementary $k$-mer counts to capture sequence composition. Convolutional and Transformer encoders independently learn latent representations of these features, and cosine distances within their respective embedding spaces are averaged before $k$-nearest-neighbor classification. Across multiple NCBI viral genome collections, CANN achieves robust family-level performance, with the fusion of encoder-specific distances consistently improving classification relative to either encoder alone. Evaluation on genomes present in the 2026 NCBI collection but absent from the 2024 reference set further supports generalization to unseen members of families already represented in the reference data. Together, these findings show that persistent commutative-algebraic descriptors can complement neural representations of viral genomes, linking algebraic descriptions of genomic organization with data-driven classification.
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Biomolecules

Correcting the Dropout-LayerNorm Expectation Gap Improves Protein Structure Models

Although $\mathbb{E}[\mathrm{dropout}(x)] = x$, here we show that $\mathbb{E}[\mathrm{LayerNorm}(\mathrm{dropout}(x))]$ is not equal to $\mathrm{LayerNorm}(x)$. Accordingly, the pattern of a Dropout layer followed by a LayerNorm, which is common to many AlphaFold2-based protein structure predictors, produces a systematic bias at evaluation time that can hamper performance. To address this, we derive a closed-form, first-order correction for this gap, which we call a Dropout-LayerNorm Correction (DLC). DLC empirically matches the performance boost of large Monte Carlo dropout ensembles. We evaluate its effect across nine protein structure models (ESMFold, OpenFold, ABB3, FlashABB, Ibex, NbForge, Genie1, Genie2, Genie3) on both paired and single-chain antibody structures as well as one protein-ligand docking model (QuickBind). The correction is computationally negligible and improves accuracy in all ten models tested ($\sim0.3\%-13\%$), with a modest but consistent improvement in ESMFold and OpenFold and a substantial improvement in antibody-specific models. This work identifies the mathematical consequence of chaining together Dropout and LayerNorm and provides a free, principled adjustment to improve the evaluation performance of many pretrained models. Code to reproduce the experiments is available at https://github.com/oxpig/DLC.
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All authors Isaac Ellmen, David Errington, Matthew I.J. Raybould, Charlotte M. Deane

Populations and Evolution

From Individual Trajectories to Population Densities: Weak-Form Inference of Heterogeneous Growth Laws

Single-cell time-lapse microscopy now provides high-resolution size trajectories for thousands of individual cells, yet principled methods for simultaneously learning the functional form of growth laws and the distribution of cell-to-cell physiological variability remain limited. We present a data-driven framework based on the recent Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) algorithm to (i) select the best supported growth law from a set of candidate laws, and (ii) recover individual-level growth parameters via empirical Bayes shrinkage within a random-effects model. We demonstrate the approach on both synthetic individual size data incorporating commonly found growth laws and recorded real size trajectories, showing that the method accurately recovers both growth-law structure and parameter heterogeneity at reasonable noise levels. We finally end with a discussion on how the results obtained by the method here can be upscaled to the population level.
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Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from eess.AS

MAESTRO: a Multimodal Auditory-attention Egocentric Speech-TRacking Open corpus

Humans rely on gaze, head movements, and visual cues to attend to speakers in noisy environments, yet auditory attention decoding (AAD) has been studied primarily using electroencephalography (EEG). We introduce the Multimodal Auditory-attention Egocentric Speech-TRacking Open (MAESTRO) corpus, the first AAD dataset to simultaneously record EEG, eye gaze, pupillometry, egocentric video, and head inertial measurement unit (IMU) data. MAESTRO includes four competing speakers and background noise across multiple signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions, enabling attention decoding under realistic listening scenarios. Through a four-speaker attention decoding benchmark, we show that combining behavioral and physiological signals improves decoding performance over EEG-only approaches, enabling future advances in multimodal auditory attention decoding. These findings open the door to new applications, analyses, and methodological advances in multimodal AAD. The complete dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/aspire-osu/maestro-eeg-dataset . The official code repository is available at https://github.com/ASPIRE-OSU/MAESTRO .
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Populations and Evolution · Cross-listed from physics.soc-ph

Collective impact of opinion formation on agent-based epidemic dynamics

Epidemic spread and collective opinion formation are tightly coupled processes: individual beliefs about the severity of an outbreak and the value of protective measures shape behavior, while the evolving epidemic itself reshapes public sentiment through risk perception. We propose an agent-based framework that couples opinion dynamics with a compartmental epidemic model, in which each agent carries both a health status and a continuous opinion variable describing adherence to protective measures. Opinion evolution is driven by binary interactions among agents and by an exogenous background field that reflects the current state of the epidemic, while the disease transmission rate depends explicitly on the opinions of interacting agents. Using methods of statistical mechanics, we characterize the resulting macroscopic system for the compartmental mass fractions and mean opinions in both far-from-equilibrium and close-to-equilibrium regimes. The calibration shows that incorporating behavioral opinion dynamics substantially improves the interpretation of epidemic evolution. In particular, the inferred risk perception function evolves consistently with the observed epidemic burden, indicating that behavioral adaptation can explain part of the temporal variation that would otherwise be absorbed into time-dependent transmission parameters. Our results illustrate how integrating opinion heterogeneity in kinetic epidemic models offers quantitative insights into the feedback between behavior and disease spread.
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All authors Andrea Bondesan, Riccardo Vecchio, Chiara Barbati, Jonathan Franceschi, Anna Odone, Mattia Zanella

Biomolecules · Cross-listed from physics.chem-ph

Multiphysics Simulation Framework for Continuous Ion Transport and Energetics in Atmospheric Pressure Interfaces

Optimizing atmospheric pressure interfaces requires balancing efficient ion transport with unwanted collision activation. The complex environment at the inlet region, including rapid pressure drops, RF/DC electric fields, ion-gas collisions, and space charge effects, makes simulation of this system challenging. In this work, we introduce MuCITE (Multiphysics simulation for Continuous Ion Transport and Energetics), which combines continuous ion injection, precomputed electric and gas flow fields, and particle-in-cell space charge updates. Furthermore, by employing improved impulsive collision theory, it can not only predict transport but also analyze the loss position of ions and the evolution of their kinetic energy, internal energy, and dissociation probability during transport. Transport predictions with ion currents and activation trends of in-source fragmentation were compared with experimental measurements using a custom-built source and a Q-Exactive HF source. The results show that the simulation predictions agree well with the experimental results and can serve as a reference before experiments. MuCITE allows users to derive ion transport, output beam characteristics, and ion energy through the configurable interface geometry and operating conditions. It supports simulation-guided design and tunable parameters to achieve predicted efficient ion transport or in source activation.
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All authors Yihui Yan, Jozef Lengyel, Frederic Rosu, Valerie Gabelica

Neurons and Cognition · Cross-listed from cs.CE

FlatClip: Reusing Image Foundation Models for fMRI Representation Learning via Cortical Flatmaps

Can the spatial organization of cortical activity help transfer frozen image representations to fMRI prediction? We introduce FlatClip, which renders cortical activity as anatomy-linked flatmaps and extracts features with a frozen SigLIP2 encoder. Only a lightweight downstream probe is trained, without fMRI-specific encoder pretraining or fine-tuning. Across four resting-state benchmarks, FlatClip outperforms the evaluated ROI-level baselines on HCP and ADNI, but is weaker on PPMI and below the strongest voxel-level models overall. On NSD visual-fMRI decoding, restricting inputs to visual or NSD-provided task-active cortex improves recognition over whole-cortex inputs. Spatial perturbations reduce performance with both retrained and fixed readouts, and anatomy-linked arrangements outperform cortical-pixel permutations across three colormaps. Together, these results demonstrate a practical route for reusing image-pretrained features in fMRI and highlight cortical arrangement and input-region selection as important design choices. Code is available at https://github.com/OneMore1/FlatClip.
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All authors Mo Wang, Wenhao Ye, Zihan Ning, Jiayu Zuo, Junfeng Xia, Hongkai Wen, Quanying Liu

Neurons and Cognition

Learning a non-linguistic code for inferred rules from reward

How can a rule inferred from examples reach someone who never saw them, without a shared code? Patients with severe aphasia do it by gesture or sketch. One network sees worked examples and emits eight invented symbols; a second, blind to them, applies them to a new input. Rewarded for the second's success, the first learns a code carrying rules to three-step transformations training never presents, which new learners acquire. Like invented human languages, the code has two regimes: under reward alone the speaker drifts to one message, as human languages lose words under plain transmission; expressive pressure keeps messages differentiated. Success on new rules tracks how much the message says about the rule, not how varied messages are. The learning signal shapes the code: reward sorts many rules under few fixed labels; the listener's error gradient gives each rule a region of similar messages, telling rules apart far better.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cond-mat.stat-mech

Slow-fast dynamics of the McKean model with stochastic resetting and diffusion

In this paper we investigate the combined effects of stochastic resetting and diffusion on a slow–fast dynamical system given by the piecewise-linear McKean model. That is, the fast variable $v$ is subject to Gaussian white noise with effective diffusivity $D$ and is reset to a fixed value $v_r$ at a random sequence of times generated from a Poisson process with rate $r$. Assuming that resetting occurs on the fast timescale, we freeze the slow variable \(w\) under an adiabatic approximation and determine the resulting non-equilibrium stationary state (NESS) of the fast variable as the solution of a modified Fokker–Planck equation. We show that the NESS can be expressed in terms of parabolic cylinder functions, whose asymptotic behavior allows us to recover the corresponding NESS without diffusion in the small-diffusion limit. The NESS is used to derive an averaged equation for the slow dynamics, whose solution converges to a stable fixed point \(w^*\) that depends on \(D\), \(r\) and \(v_r\). This fixed point effectively determines the long-time behaviour of the full system. Finally, we analyze the regime in which resetting occurs on the same timescale as the slow variable. We show how the slow variable now undergoes noisy oscillations due to resetting-induced switching between branches of the fast nullcline and derive the corresponding NESS for $w$ in the non-diffusive case.
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Neurons and Cognition

Grid-cell firing fields lack local sixfold symmetry

The firing fields of a grid cell form a hexagonal lattice, yet each field's intrinsic geometric structure remains unclear: Are individual grid fields radially symmetric or do they exhibit (weak) sixfold modulation inherited from the global lattice? To address this question, we quantified the within-field angular structure using harmonic analysis and per-cell matched simulations that preserved sampling statistics, field scale, and lattice geometry after correction for global elliptic deformation. We found that, across the investigated cells, the sixfold harmonic power fraction was consistent with values from matched locally circular reference fields. Experimental fields further showed substantially less sixfold modulation than matched simulations with an imposed local sixfold component, demonstrating sensitivity to sixfold structure at that level. This conclusion was supported by a complementary sixfold regression metric, harmonic leave-one-out sensitivity analyses, and robustness checks across radial-window choices, smoothing, and simulated background-noise levels. An observation-matched Burak–Fiete continuous-attractor network likewise showed no selective local sixfold enhancement despite its globally periodic grid structure, and this conclusion persisted when grid scale and relative field width were matched more closely to the experimental regime. These results suggest that the global hexagonal lattice organization need not be accompanied by detectable local sixfold angular modulation of individual firing fields, placing quantitative constraints on grid-field microstructure and mechanistic models of grid formation.
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Populations and Evolution · Cross-listed from cs.LG

SAGE: A sampling-aware global evaluation benchmark for species distribution modeling

Knowing where species occur is fundamental for biodiversity research and conservation. Species distribution models (SDMs) link species observations to environmental conditions to estimate their spatial distribution. However, accuracy varies with the underlying data and models, making it essential to know for which species models can be trusted. Deep-learning-based SDMs ("DeepSDMs") now jointly model thousands of species, drawing on hundreds of millions of community-science records. At this scale, averaging performance hides substantial species-level variability, particularly for rare species, often of greatest conservation concern. Records are also strongly biased, making occurrence counts misleading. Accounting for these factors is essential for a reliable and informative evaluation of multi-species SDMs. Here, we introduce a Sampling-Aware Global Evaluation (SAGE) benchmark, combining GBIF records for training with sPlotOpen vegetation plots for presence-absence evaluation across 5771 plant species. We propose an evaluation framework that groups species based on two properties, sampling effort and relative prevalence, which describe how densely a species' range is sampled and how frequently the species is recorded. Evaluating single-species SDMs and multi-species DeepSDMs, we find that Random Forests and DeepSDMs perform best overall, but neither dominates: DeepSDMs outperform single-species SDMs for infrequently recorded species while offering no consistent advantage for well-sampled ones. Crucially, this advantage emerges only when established bias-correction practices, such as spatial thinning and reweighting, are carried over to the deep-learning setting. SAGE helps identify the species and data conditions for which a given approach is beneficial, thereby supporting the development of more transparent and ecologically credible SDMs. Data and code: https://earens.github.io/sage/
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All authors Emilia Arens, Nina van Tiel, Robin Zbinden, Damien Robert, Lukas Drees, Chiara Vanalli, Benjamin Kellenberger, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Loïc Pellissier, Devis Tuia, Jan Dirk Wegner

Quantitative Methods

Predicting Mutational Signature Exposures from H&E Whole Slide Images: A Pan-Cancer Feasibility Study

Mutational signatures reveal cancer-driving processes with clinical relevance: MMR-deficient tumors respond better to immunotherapy, HRD tumors are sensitive to PARP inhibitors, and POLE-mutant tumors often have high mutation burdens influencing treatment response. Yet signature profiling remains limited by the cost, complexity, and turnaround time of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) or whole-exome sequencing. Histopathology is widely available and cost-effective, and H&E morphology has been linked to MSI, HRD, POLE-related processes, and driver mutations. Whether histology can recover the broader landscape of mutational signature exposures in a pan-cancer setting remains unknown. Here we introduce Hist2Sig, a deep learning framework predicting exposures to 30 COSMIC SBS signatures from H&E-stained slides. Trained on matched WGS and histology data from 7,063 TCGA patients across 29 cancer types, Hist2Sig was compared with a tumor type-only baseline to separate morphology-derived signal from tissue-of-origin priors. In internal cross-validation, it recovered relative signature compositions across most tumor types and achieved higher mean top-three overlap than the baseline in 19 of 29, with the largest gains in COAD, PRAD, GBM, and UCEC. It also recurrently recovered signatures of poorly characterized etiology, including SBS8, SBS12, SBS39, and SBS40a. In an external CPTAC cohort of 193 patients across five tumor types, Hist2Sig retained moderate concordance with observed compositions and outperformed the baseline in glioblastoma and pancreatic adenocarcinoma. These results support the feasibility of inferring mutational signature exposures from routine histology, while highlighting variation across tumor types. Hist2Sig provides a foundation for tumor-specific models that could complement sequencing in pre-sequencing triage or support decisions where WGS is unavailable.
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All authors Flavio Sartori, Cesare Rollo, Isabella Caranzano, Tiziana Sanavia, Piero Fariselli, Corrado Pancotti

Molecular Networks

Large-deviations theory for growing chemical reaction networks

Growing biochemical systems are intrinsically noisy, with one important source of stochasticity arising from the discrete reaction events of the underlying biochemical network. Because growing systems do not generally admit stationary abundance distributions, it is unclear how to separate this intrinsic chemical noise from other sources of variability in population and single-cell data. Here we develop a large-deviation theory for exponentially growing stochastic chemical reaction networks by decomposing abundance into volume and composition. In these coordinates, balanced growth corresponds to a stable composition together with exponentially increasing volume. We show that composition fluctuations satisfy a large-deviation principle with speed equal to the volume of the growing system, and the corresponding quasipotential is selected by a solution of the contact Hamilton–Jacobi equation. We also derive a fluctuation theory for accumulated observables and show that their covariances decay with accumulated-volume, rather than with physical time. Applications to a minimal autocatalytic network and a coarse-grained cellular growth model demonstrate how the theory predicts composition quasipotentials, growth-rate fluctuations, and correlations between observables. The framework therefore provides a stochastic null model for single-cell heterogeneity generated by the intrinsic stochasticity of the underlying chemical reaction network.
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Populations and Evolution

Pathways of early evolution from the perspectives of a riboreplisome – the ultimate RNA machine of life

Translation of the genetic code into proteins is universal across life, with ribosomes serving as the ancient molecular machines enabling this information transformation. We propose that early replication and protein biosynthesis were inseparable functions performed by a single ancient RNA molecule: the riboreplisome. This hypothesis addresses fundamental challenges facing RNA world, protein world, and RNA-protein co-evolution theories – particularly the problem of non-Darwinian starting points and the interdependence of replication and translation machineries. We present a 12-step evolutionary pathway from simple RNA replicase to proto-ribosome, supported by quantitative modelling demonstrating that only two steps require non-Darwinian transitions while the remaining ten proceed through standard selection. The single-molecule riboreplisome architecture provides an approximately 6-fold evolutionary advantage over multi-component "RNA soup" scenarios, principally by maintaining genetic linkage and retaining catalytic products close to the replicating genome (resisting diffusion loss); structural resistance to parasitic "cheater" molecules follows as a corollary. The riboreplisome framework explains the origins of ribosomal, transfer, and messenger RNA as derivatives of a single ancestral molecule, while providing a driving force for cellular compartmentalisation. Although the original riboreplisome is likely lost to deep time, molecular remnants may persist in extant biological RNA. Identification or reconstruction of riboreplisome-like molecules could advance both origin-of-life research and synthetic biology applications.
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Thursday 24 September

Populations and Evolution

Prevalence and the rate of antigenic evolution are jointly determined in an eco-evolutionary SIR model

Influenza A persists by continually changing the antigens that its host population recognizes. How fast it evolves and how many hosts it infects are not independent, because the immunity that selects new variants is produced by the infections the pathogen has already caused. We analyze a model of Andreasen et.\ al.\ that captures this eco-evolutionary feedback, and we extend it to the case where infection may kill the host. In the model infected and recovered hosts are distributions over a one-dimensional antigenic space coupled by cross-immunity. The endemic state is a traveling pulse: the infected distribution keeps a fixed shape and advances through antigenic space at constant speed. In the limit of weak antigenic mutation we construct the pulse asymptotically and find that: (i) the speed of antigenic evolution decreases as prevalence rises, (ii) less standing antigenic variation accompanies either faster or slower antigenic evolution, depending on whether pathogens differ in immune evasion or host lifespan (iii) the total number of infected hosts is largest at an intermediate virulence when the host birth rate is sufficiently low.
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Biomolecules · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Improving Molecular-Morphology Contrastive Pretraining using Deep-Learning-based Morphology Profiles

Recent advancements in image-based profiling techniques have enabled the collection of high-volume cell morphology data, allowing new molecular embedding models to learn from the experimental phenotypic perturbations of a molecule in a cell. Previously, we developed Molecule-Morphology Contrastive Pretraining (MoCoP), a strategy for aligning small molecule embeddings to morphology fingerprints extracted through CellProfiler. The resulting molecular representation showed transferable performance for quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) prediction tasks. Here, we extend the method by using a deep-learning-based cell image encoding pipeline to extract more feature-rich morphology profiles and align them to the molecular embeddings through contrastive learning. The new embeddings encode more accurate information on how molecules perturb cell morphology and enable improvements for QSAR predictions through either fixed-embedding linear probes or fully flexible fine-tuning. Morphology retrieval performance scales log-linearly with training data size, suggesting continued improvements as larger datasets become available. The improved MoCoP v2 also achieves superior performance on toxicity prediction and competitive results on ADME and activity benchmarks, when compared with existing molecular embedding models that use both cell morphology and transcriptomic data during training.
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All authors Jie Li, Kathryn E. Kirchoff, Dante A. Pertusi, Zhizhuo Zhang

Populations and Evolution

Consistent determination of stability regimes in natural ecological communities from abundance time series

The stability of an ecological community is conventionally defined through species interactions, which quantify how species affect one another. Interaction strengths are notoriously difficult to measure in species-rich assemblages. Long-term monitoring of species-rich communities, however, provides species abundance time series, increasingly available across habitats and taxa but not yet connected to the stability properties of the communities they describe. Here we develop a statistical framework that infers stability regimes in large ecological communities directly from abundance time series. We study stochastic Generalized Lotka–Volterra dynamics with random interactions and environmental fluctuations using dynamical mean-field theory, reducing the multispecies system to an effective stochastic process for a representative species. The theory predicts three stability regimes (stable coexistence, intermittent dynamics close to extinction, and unbounded growth) separated by analytical boundaries, and shows that environmental stochasticity systematically destabilizes coexistence by promoting intermittent low-abundance dynamics. The resulting steady-state species abundance distribution is a Gamma law that ties the dynamical phases to the variability-based stability metrics used in empirical studies. Recasting the effective dynamics as a multivariate regression model, we infer interaction statistics, environmental variability and the characteristic timescale of the dynamics from community data, without reconstructing the interaction network. Applied to natural communities spanning a broad range of habitats and taxa, the method resolves contrasting stability regimes and yields quantitative estimates of species extinction risk.
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All authors Alberto Megías, Vicente J. Ontiveros, David Alonso, José A. Capitán

Quantitative Methods

Parameter identifiability of a neuroendocrine-inflammatory model across experimental designs

Mathematical modeling helps us identify and investigate complex mechanisms of function. This is especially useful for understanding inflammation, which is a complex, multiscale process that interacts nonlinearly with other physiological systems. The full potential of these models can only be realized when combined with experimental data through parameter estimation. However, uniquely determining model parameters requires that they are practically identifiable, which can be assessed by multiple, possibly inconsistent, methods. Identifiability can also vary with experimental designs and observation operators. This study investigates this issue by assessing parameter identifiability in a coupled model of the neuroendocrine-inflammatory system. We compare three workflows following a global sensitivity analysis: Fisher-information matrix based identifiability, global optimization with frequentist confidence intervals, and the profile-likelihood. We compare results across six observation operators with and without measurement noise, all of which are experimentally feasible given prior literature. Our results show that Fisher-information-based methods typically lead to larger sets of identifiable parameters while profile-likelihood analyses lead to a smaller number of identifiable parameters. This suggests that, while computationally expensive, the profile-likelihood is necessary for accurately assessing identifiability, and must be recalculated when the experimental design is altered.
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Genomics

EMMA: an R/Bioconductor package to automate tracking of metadata in functional enrichment analyses

Summary: Functional enrichment analysis (FEA) is a widely used approach for interpreting high-throughput omics data. However, essential methodological details, such as software versions, analysis parameters, and annotation database releases among others, are often incompletely reported, limiting the reproducibility and transparency of enrichment analyses and complicating the assessment of potentially problematic methodological choices. Here we present EMMA, an R/Bioconductor package that integrates with existing FEA tools and automatically captures provenance metadata, such as annotation metadata, software version, and parameters, during the analysis runtime. Our package provides utilities for accessing and exporting the recorded metadata to facilitate transparent reporting and preserve provenance required for reproducible enrichment analyses. This also enables auditing of the results while remaining compatible with existing Bioconductor workflows. Availability and implementation: EMMA is available on Bioconductor under the MIT license (https: //bioconductor.org/packages/EMMA), with its development version also available on GitHub (https: //github.com/imbeimainz/EMMA).
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Neurons and Cognition

A Spiking Neural Network Model of Elementary Self-Consciousness via Endogenous Default Mode Network Dynamics

Understanding the neurobiological mechanisms underlying self-referential cognition and baseline self-consciousness remains a fundamental challenge in computational neuroscience. In this work, we propose a large-scale computational model incorporating a 10,000-neuron spiking neural network (SNN) based on Izhikevich dynamics. The network is structured into two interacting subsystems: a sensory processing layer (5,000 regular-spiking cortical neurons) and an endogenous Default Mode Network (DMN) pacemaker subsystem (5,000 intrinsically bursting neurons). The DMN layer is modulated by continuous tonic currents reflecting ascending brainstem neuromodulation, maintaining intrinsic, autonomous bioelectric rhythms independent of external sensory input. To represent top-down cognitive modulation, synaptic weights are hierarchically structured such that DMN-to-network projections exceed sensory-level connections. Through numerical simulations using a modified two-step Euler integration scheme, we demonstrate how endogenous pacemaker activity interacts with transient external sensory perturbations, providing an elementary mathematical framework for the emergence of a persistent, self-sustaining neural representation of "Self".
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Populations and Evolution

Mathematical Modelling of Within-Host HIV Dynamics with Cytotoxic Immune Response and Antiretroviral Therapy

We develop and analyse a mechanistic ODE model of within-host HIV dynamics that includes uninfected CD4$^+$ T cells, latently and productively infected cells, free virions, and cytotoxic immune effectors. Antiretroviral therapy is described by two time-dependent efficacy functions that separately reduce new infections and virion production. We show that solutions remain non-negative and bounded, identify the infection-free and endemic equilibria, and derive the basic reproduction number together with the local stability condition for the infection-free state. We also obtain treatment-dependent suppression thresholds and an analytical estimate of when this threshold is crossed as treatment efficacy declines. Numerical simulations consider untreated infection, ART initiation, periodic variation in efficacy, and progressive loss of treatment effect. Without therapy, the model approaches a state of persistent infection. ART reduces viral load and promotes recovery of the CD4$^+$ T-cell population, while the latent reservoir persists under the parameter set considered. Periodic changes in treatment efficacy produce sustained forced oscillations. These results connect the analytical threshold conditions with the treatment-dependent dynamics of the model and provide a basis for future calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and extensions informed by clinical data.
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Quantitative Methods

PRAXIS-VirtualCell: A Programmable and Trustworthy Framework for Agentic Virtual Cell Experiments

Virtual cells are evolving from single-task predictive models toward programmable biological simulation systems, yet heterogeneous data, models, and validation evidence still lack a unified organizational framework. Here, we present PRAXIS-VirtualCell, a modular framework that organizes biological data, predictive models, perturbations, adapters, execution environments, and validation evidence to enable reproducible and auditable virtual experiments. The system supports cross-species tasks spanning Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and human K562 cells, while using biological contracts and evidence-aware execution to distinguish supported predictions from extrapolation and abstention. By further integrating agentic orchestration, PRAXIS-VirtualCell automatically translates natural-language questions into traceable virtual experiments, providing a unified runtime foundation for trustworthy and scalable Virtual Cell systems.
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Quantitative Methods

ProteoEM: probabilistic protein abundance estimation from iterative affinity traces

Single-molecule affinity mapping enables measurement of individual proteins and proteoforms, but imperfect and nonspecific probe binding means that affinity traces may be compatible with multiple proteoforms. Accurate abundance estimation therefore requires probabilistically weighting ambiguous traces rather than assigning each trace to a single candidate. We developed ProteoEM, an expectation-maximization framework for weighted proteoform quantification, inspired by transcript abundance estimation methods for RNA-seq and released as an open-source Python package. ProteoEM evaluates each observed affinity trace against all candidate proteoforms using fixed, pre-calibrated probe-response rates that are separate from abundance estimation. It estimates the abundance of each proteoform and reports proteoforms that the probes cannot tell apart as a single group. Because some proteoforms are observed more readily than others, ProteoEM also corrects for these observation yields to estimate the composition of the source sample. We show that grouping traces that carry the same evidence into equivalence classes reduces the EM's work sevenfold without changing the estimates. In simulations, ProteoEM recovered the true molecular composition, whereas approaches that reduced each affinity trace to a hard yes/no call introduced substantial errors. Performance was robust to moderate, uniform calibration error but was biased by informative missing data and by proteoforms absent from the reference set. When observation yields were known, ProteoEM also recovered source-sample composition from observed molecular counts. ProteoEM is an open-source, reproducible framework for quantitative analysis of single-molecule affinity measurements and provides a basis for validation using experimental molecule-level data.
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Populations and Evolution

Predator self limitation controls pattern formation in a predator prey system with additional food: a Turing Hopf analysis

Supplying a released predator with additional, non reproducing food is a standard lever in augmentative biological control, with a known drawback with nothing limiting the predators own numbers, the extra food lets its population grow without bound. Competition among the predators supplies the missing brake. Howthis self limitation reshapes the spatial arrangement of the two species has not been asked. We address it with a reaction diffusion model of a logistically growing prey and a predator feeding through a Holling type II response that also draws on additional food , the predators competing among themselves at strength. In the well mixed setting we locate the Hopf bifurcation of the coexistence state exactly and show the cycle born there is stable, so weak competition gives boom bust oscillations, not runaway growth. Allowing movement, we obtain the diffusion driven Turing threshold at which the uniform state breaks into stationary patches of high and low density, and find the uniform oscillation stable as it appears. With prey mobility and competition strength as control parameters, the pattern forming and oscillatory instabilities meet at a single point, where we compute the dynamics. Simulations confirm the sequence weak competition gives a wholefield oscillation, stronger competition with faster prey spread gives fixed patterns, and near the crossover the two combine into patterns that pulse in time. Predator self competition therefore sets the spatial structure of the community, which is what matters when additional food is used to steer a control agent in the field.
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Populations and Evolution · Cross-listed from stat.ME

Phylodynamic inference with the bounded coalescent: a point process perspective

The coalescent is a central framework in population genetics for modelling the ancestral relationships among sampled individuals through a genealogy, represented as a rooted and ranked binary tree. In this model, lineages coalesce at a rate inversely proportional to the effective population size, a time-varying quantity of primary interest. The bounded coalescent conditions genealogies on the time to the most recent common ancestor being bounded above by a fixed time. This model is useful in various contexts, such as phylodynamics of infectious diseases with known introduction times and single-cell lineage tracing in synthetic barcoding experiments. To our knowledge, there is no existing tool that infers variable effective population size trajectories under the bounded coalescent. We view estimation under the bounded coalescent as equivalent to estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous point process. We provide an efficient algorithm for coalescent simulation under the bounded coalescent using point process methods, retaining the exactness of naive rejection sampling while substantially reducing computational cost and avoiding repeated numerical inversion of the bounded cumulative hazard. We then develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for posterior inference of effective population size trajectories that avoids discretization of the likelihood integrals. In simulations, conditioning on the bound reduces the median sum of squared errors in two of three settings, with less favourable results in the most rapidly varying setting. We illustrate the method using severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 sequence data from Washington State.
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Biomolecules · Cross-listed from cs.AI

PFArena: Benchmarking Language Models for Protein Modification

Protein modification requires navigating an immense sequence space, yet wet-lab validation remains low-throughput and costly. Although computational paradigms including protein language models (PLMs), large language models (LLMs), and LLM-based agents have shown promise in protein modification, their relative efficacy across realistic experimental decision-making settings remains unclear. To bridge this gap, we introduce PFArena, a benchmark comprising four controlled task interfaces that cover single-mutant generation and multi-mutant ranking. By providing varying levels of mutation fitness data, PFArena reflects four representative research scenarios characterized by differing degrees of prior experimental context. We assess six PLMs, six LLMs, and five LLM-based agents using complementary metrics to measure both peak and overall protein modification performance. Our evaluation reveals that model performance shifts systematically with the availability of target-specific experimental evidence: PLMs demonstrate proficiency in open-ended single-mutant generation by leveraging protein-specific priors, whereas LLMs and agents perform strongly in multi-mutant ranking, particularly when target-specific fitness data are available. Nevertheless, all model families face fundamental challenges with increasing search-space size and mutation depth. We release our code and benchmark suite to facilitate reproducible research in model-assisted protein modification.
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All authors Yawen Ouyang, Xinbo Zhang, Ziyuan Ma, Yixin Wu, Wenbin Liao, Feiran Zhang, Wenjie Li, Lihao Wang, Hao Wang, Xiaoqing Zheng, Xuefeng Yan, Lei Bai, Ya-Qin Zhang, Shuyi Zhang, Wei-Ying Ma, Dahua Lin, Bowen Zhou, Hao Zhou