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Mathematics

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Tuesday 16 June

Analysis of PDEs

Determination of separable perturbations of an unbounded potential in the two-dimensional Schrödinger equation

We establish uniqueness and stability results for a class of perturbations of an unbounded potential in the two-dimensional Schrödinger equation, from the corresponding Dirichlet-to-Neumann map. We assume that the difference between the potentials has a separated product structure. Our proof relies on a specific Carleman inequality.
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Numerical Analysis

Two-level convergence of Algebraic Multigrid with Overlapping Smoothers and Spectral Coarse Grids

We recently developed the least-squares algebraic-multigrid domain-decomposition (LS-AMG-DD) solver as an algebraic multilevel method for sparse symmetric positive definite matrices that admit a Gram representation \(A=G^{\top}G\) \cite{southworth2026lsamgdd}. Many problem classes admit such structure, including many conforming finite-element discretizations. The solver constructs coarse spaces from local eigenproblems on nonoverlapping, algebraic aggregates and uses Schwarz-type smoothers on the induced overlapping subdomains. This paper develops a novel two-level convergence theory for this solver. Our theory shows that the solver's coarse space satisfies a weak approximation property in a norm induced by an aggregate-wise block-Jacobi smoother, and moreover, that the corresponding approximation constant is bounded by a user-controlled local spectral cutoff threshold. We combine this approximation property with standard sharp theory for multiplicative two-level cycles. The resulting two-level bound is cleanly factored by the cutoff threshold and a smoother norm-comparison constant; we derive explicit bounds for this constant for block Jacobi and overlapping additive Schwarz smoothers. We also develop a new convergence bound for additive Schwarz methods in terms of a trivially computable constant that is bounded above by the coloring constant. Numerical experiments on scalar \(H^1\), vector \(H(\operatorname{div})\), and vector \(H(\operatorname{curl})\) finite-element problems provide supporting evidence for the theory, including evidence for the solver's insensitivity to mesh refinement and polynomial degree.
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Algebraic Geometry

A Pascal-type construction of the Segre cubic and the Cremona–Richmond configuration

We present a Pascal-type residual construction in P^4. Starting from two quadruples of hyperplanes whose four diagonal intersection planes lie in a hyperplane, we show that the twelve residual planes lie on a cubic threefold. In the general case this cubic is the Segre cubic, and the construction recovers its fifteen planes and the associated Cremona–Richmond configuration. We also exhibit a point-line realization of this configuration in P^4 and show that it gives a (5,3)-geprofi set.
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Statistics Theory

Inferential Models: The Power of Auxiliary Variables for Reasoning with Scientific Uncertainty

A central challenge in scientific inference is to produce uncertainty assessments that are both situation-specific and frequency-calibrated. This article examines inferential models (IMs) as a framework for prior-free probabilistic reasoning with scientific uncertainty. The central IM idea is to view the auxiliary variables in a sampling model as the source of model-based uncertainty. R. A. Fisher's fiducial inference transfers auxiliary randomness to the parameter space before applying probability calculus; IMs instead predict the unobserved auxiliary value with calibrated predictive random sets (PRSs) and transfer the resulting plausibility statements only afterward. This change in order yields valid uncertainty assessments and clarifies the relations among Fisherian fiducial reasoning, Neymanian confidence theory, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, generalized fiducial inference, and IMs. By comparing IMs with objective-prior Bayesian inference, the article argues that E. T. Jaynes' logic-of-science ambition can be continued without forcing all scientific uncertainty into a precise prior distribution because calibrated imprecision is often essential. Finally, the article suggests that a differential-geometric theory of IMs may be within reach, offering a possible route to foundational questions traditionally framed in terms of the likelihood principle.
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Combinatorics

Interval hypergraphic polytopes (or deformed associahedra), Tamari interval posets, and weeping willows

For a hypergraph $\mathbb{H}$ on $[n]$, the hypergraphic polytope $\triangle_{\mathbb{H}}$ is the Minkowski sum of the standard simplices $\triangle_H$ for all $H \in \mathbb{H}$. We focus here on interval hypergraphs, where all hyperedges are intervals of $[n]$. They are precisely the deformations of Loday's associahedron. Their vertex posets are Tamari interval posets, and we describe which Tamari interval poset appears as a vertex poset in which interval hypergraphic polytope. We also characterize the interval hypergraphs $\mathbb{I}$ for which the hypergraphic polytope $\triangle_\mathbb{I}$ is simple, and we study their vertex posets, which we call weeping willows.
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All authors Jose Bastidas, Félix Gélinas, Vincent Pilaud, Germain Poullot, Andrew Sack, Eleni Tzanaki

Information Theory

A skew polynomial framework for constructing division algebras and linear maximum rank distance codes

We construct division algebras and linear maximum rank distance (MRD) matrix codes using skew polynomials over fields. The non-unital division algebras we obtain generalize several prominent constructions: Sheekey's twisted cyclic pre-semifields, i.e. the pre-semifields associated with Jha-Johnson semifields and the semifields associated with Albert's generalized twisted fields. Our linear MRD codes generalize the constructions of Lobillo, Santonastaso and Sheekey. We present criteria for these algebras to be division algebras, respectively, for when these codes have maximum rank, and compare isotopic division algebras that appear throughout recent and classical literature. We compute some of their invariants.
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Operator Algebras

Amenable traces and the joint numerical radius

We provide necessary and sufficient characterizations of the existence of an amenable trace on a C$^*$-algebra in terms of the joint free numerical radius of tuples of unitaries, isometries, and partial isometries in the algebra. We apply these results to obtain new obstructions to various lifting properties.
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Dynamical Systems

Time and Frequency domain analysis of Love waves generated by Gaussian, Ricker and double couple seismic sources in a memory dependent fractured poroviscoelastic layer on a heterogeneous viscoelastic half-space

The present study develops a detailed theoretical and mathematical formulation to analyze the time and frequency domain propagation characteristics of Love waves in a stratified fractured poroviscoelastic continuum.The top stratum is modeled as a fractured poroviscoelastic material,whereas the lower semi infinite region exhibits heterogeneity and a gradual transition from viscoelastic behavior near the interface to purely elastic response at greater depths.Fractional order constitutive relations are incorporated to capture the memory-dependent mechanical behavior of the medium using Riemann Liouville fractional derivatives. Three distributed source models, namely Gaussian, Ricker and double-couple sources, are considered. To the best of our knowledge, the mathematical formulation of these distributed sources within the present framework has not been established in earlier studies, where the excitation is typically modeled using an idealized point source. By applying Fourier transform techniques in conjunction with Greens function methodology, the complex dispersion relation is obtained. Since the resulting dispersion equation yields complex roots, a hybrid Newton Raphson iterative algorithm is employedto compute these roots efficiently. Synthetic seismograms are generated to verify that the obtained solutions remain physically consistent and meaningful. Numerical simulations are then performed to investigate the effects of heterogeneity, fractional viscoelasticity and porosity on wave propagation characteristics, thereby identifying the parameters that exert the most significant influence on the system response. Furthermore, to examine the structural implications of the propagated waves, a single degree of freedom SDOF oscillator model is employed to evaluate the surface response corresponding to different types of seismic sources.
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Algebraic Geometry

Irreducible symplectic varieties via K3-del Pezzo double covers

We construct a series of irreducible symplectic varieties of dimension $2n$, for $2\leq n\leq 10$, with second Betti numbers $16\leq b_2\leq 24$. They arise as non-trivial terminalisations of finite symplectic quotients of Beauville-Mukai systems on very general K3-del Pezzo double covers.
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Mathematical Physics · Cross-listed from hep-th

Exponentiation of higher-point and higher-genus Virasoro conformal blocks in the semiclassical limit

A long-standing conjecture claims that Virasoro conformal blocks exponentiate in the semiclassical limit $c \to \infty$ with $h/c$ finite. However, this has been proven only for four-point blocks on the sphere and one-point blocks on the torus. Here we extend the proof to general conformal blocks for higher-point functions and higher-genus backgrounds in arbitrary channels. The statement is to be understood at the level of a formal power series. Our proof builds upon a novel extension of the oscillator method for the computation of conformal blocks to cases where three internal lines meet at a vertex. This extension also gives a new constructive method to compute global conformal blocks in 2d CFTs at general genus.
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Quantum Algebra · Cross-listed from hep-th

Meromorphic amplitudes from 3-dimensional supersymmetry

We establish a new connection between supersymmetric theories and scattering amplitudes. We show that the Coon amplitude coincides with the 3d $\mathcal{N}=2$ half-index of the XYZ model with nontrivial boundary conditions. Our 3d theory, intrinsically defined in the UV, flows to a sigma model in the IR whose partition function is the Veneziano amplitude. Crossing symmetry is realized as a consequence of 3d $\mathcal{N}=2$ mirror symmetry between XYZ and SQED. We use this correspondence to construct a meromorphic modification of the Coon amplitude by promoting the long-standing dressing factor $\mathfrak{q}^{ST}$ responsible for a branch cut to an elliptic completion thereof. This illustrates that one does not have to give up single-valuedness to achieve positivity at the physical poles.
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Combinatorics

Proofs of Two Conjectures of Alon on Subgraph Counts

All graphs considered are finite with no isolated vertices. Let $N(m,H)$ be the maximum number of subgraphs of a graph $G$ isomorphic to $H$, taken over all graphs $G$ with $m$ edges. Alon proved that $N(m,H)=\Theta_H(m^{\gamma(H)})$, where $\gamma(H)=(|V(H)|+D(H))/2$ and $D(H)=\max_{S\subseteq V(H)}(|S|-|N_H(S)|)$, and conjectured [Conjecture 1, Isr. J. Math., 1986] that limit of $N(m,H)/m^{\gamma(H)}$ exists as $m\to\infty$. We prove this conjecture and identify the limit as $\lambda(H)=\Lambda(H)/|\operatorname{Aut}(H)|$, where $\Lambda(H)$ is characterized by a variational problem over finite cores. We also resolve another conjecture of Alon [Conjecture 2, Isr. J. Math., 1986], which stated that if $H$ is a disjoint union of stars, then for every $m$ an extremal graph attaining $N(m,H)$ may be chosen to be a disjoint union of stars.
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All authors Peiru Kuang, Shuang Sun, Yan Wang, Jiasheng Zeng

Combinatorics

Proof of a conjecture on permutations

Given a positive integer $n$, define a function on the symmetric group $S_n$ by $$F(\tau) = \sum_{k=1}^{n}k^2\tau(k)^2.$$ Motivated by a conjecture of Zhi-Wei Sun, we investigate the residue classes attained by $F(\tau)$ modulo $2n+1$. We prove that for every integer $n>4$, the set $\{F(\tau):\tau\in S_n\}$ contains a complete residue system modulo $2n+1$. The proof is based on a family of involutions whose values are controlled by subset sums of squares.
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Numerical Analysis

Starter-Iterator Neural Operator: A Unified Architecture for High-Fidelity Forward and Inverse PDE Problems

Operator learning is an emerging field at the intersection of machine learning and scientific computing. By learning mappings between function spaces, neural operators provide data-driven surrogate models for families of partial differential equations (PDEs). Once trained, these models can evaluate solution operators efficiently, making them suitable for many-query applications such as real-time prediction and parameter sweeps. However, maintaining high approximation accuracy and stable long-term predictions remains challenging for complex forward and inverse problems. To address these challenges, we propose the Starter-Iterator Neural Operator (SINO), which incorporates the initialization and residual-correction structures of classical iterative solvers into neural operator learning. The frequency-domain Starter captures dominant global spectral features and provides an informed initial approximation, while the latent-space Iterator applies successive residual-based corrections to refine local and multiscale solution structures. Experiments on representative time-dependent PDEs, including the Navier-Stokes and acoustic wave equations, together with applications to image super-resolution and weather forecasting, show that SINO achieves competitive accuracy and stable performance across the benchmarks considered in this work.
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All authors Kuilin Qin, Lianfang Wang, Xu Sun, Jiwei Jia, Yu Wang, Yong Wang, Yuping Duan

Probability · Cross-listed from cs.CG

Denoising Distances in Metric Measure Spaces

Recent work studied the problem of finding clusters and denoising pairwise distances from noisy distances of points sampled on a manifold. We study the same problems in more general metric measure spaces under a lower mass condition. We give an algorithm that extracts large localized clusters around every sampled point, which can be used to denoise distances, with near-linear running time in the dense regime for fixed target distance error $r$. When the target distance error \(r\) is allowed to vanish as \(n\to\infty\), we identify the sharp information-theoretic scale for achieving distance error \(r\), suggesting a statistical-computational gap for high-accuracy denoising beyond the Riemannian setting.
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Commutative Algebra

Derived functors and Hilbert polynomials over Gorenstein rings

Let $(A,\mathfrak{m},k)$ be a Gorenstein ring of dimension $d\ge 1$, $N$ a perfect module of dimension $t\ge 1$ and $I$ an ideal of definition of $N$. For a non-free maximal Cohen-Macaulay (=MCM) $A$-module $M$ and an integer $i\ge 1$, it is well known that the functions $n \mapsto \ell(Tor_i^A(M,N/I^{n+1}N))$ and $n \mapsto \ell(Ext^i_A(M,N/I^{n+1}N))$ are of polynomial types of degrees $r_i^{I,N}(M)$ and $s_{I,N}^i(M)$, respectively. We prove that $r_i^{I,N}(M)\le t-1$ and $s^i_{I,N}(M)\le t-1$ and when $I$ is the maximal ideal $\mathfrak{m}$, both the inequalities become equalities. We also show that $r_i^{I,N}(M)\le r_1^{I,N}(\Omega^dk)$, $s^i_{I,N}(M)\le s^1_{I,N}(\Omega^dk)$ and $r_i^{I,N}(\Omega^dk)=r_1^{I,N}(\Omega^dk)=s^1_{I,N}(\Omega^dk)=s^i_{I,N}(\Omega^dk)$. \end
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Algebraic Geometry

Derived categories of log del Pezzo surfaces with $\frac13(1,1)$ singularities

Let $X$ be a log del Pezzo surface with only $\frac13(1,1)$ singularities. We compare the derived categories of its minimal resolution, canonical stack, and singular surface. For every family in the Corti–Heuberger classification, Orlov's blow-up formula and the Ishii–Ueda correspondence give explicit full exceptional collections on the canonical stacks, of length $12-K_X^2+\frac{4k}{3}$ when $X$ has $k$ singular points. In the one-point index-one cascade, the canonical stacks are blow-ups of the weighted projective stack $\mathbb P(1,1,3)$ at distinct smooth points and admit explicit full strong exceptional collections of line bundles. For quasismooth hypersurfaces $X_{10}\subset\mathbb P(1,2,3,5)$, we construct a full strong exceptional collection of $13$ objects with an explicitly computed Euler matrix. The exceptional lattice determines the Brauer group: $\mathrm{Br}(X)=0$ for $k\leq5$, while $\mathrm{Br}(X)\cong\mathbb Z/3$ for $k=6$. We construct semiorthogonal decompositions of $D^b(\mathrm{coh}\,X)$ for the one- and three-point cascades and of a Brauer-twisted derived category for the six-point cascade.
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2606.18238 · 16 Jun · 64 pages, 7 figures. Major revision with a new title. Added explicit collections on the rigid cascade bases, full strong line-bundle collections for the one-point cascade, and descent results for the three-point and Brauer-twisted six-point cases. Expanded Euler-matrix comparisons, reorganized proofs, and clarified geometric attributions

Information Theory · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Sign-Rank, Index, and List Replicability: Connections and Separations

In learning theory, the sign-rank of a binary concept class captures the smallest dimension in which it can be represented by points and halfspaces. Despite tremendous interest, lower bounds on sign-rank are notoriously difficult to come by. Two recent approaches to the problem establish lower bounds on sign-rank by measures that are easier to analyze: the $\mathbb{Z}_2$-index and the list replicability number. We order these measures, showing that the $\mathbb{Z}_2$-index is upper-bounded by a linear function of the list replicability number. As a main consequence, we obtain a strong separation between sign-rank and $\mathbb{Z}_2$-index, thereby resolving a question of Frick, Hosseini, and Vasileuski. This motivates a thorough study of list replicability, the stronger of the two lower-bounding measures. We establish upper bounds on the list replicability number by two combinatorial measures: height and minimum star number. We also prove a fundamental composition result, showing that the product of two concept classes has list replicability number bounded by the sum of the list replicability numbers of the two classes.
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All authors Ari Blondal, Hamed Hatami, Pooya Hatami, Chavdar Lalov, Sivan Tretiak

Number Theory

On zero-sum problems of new types

In this paper, we investigate zero-sum problems of new types. For example, given $2n-1$ integers $a_1,\ldots,a_{2n-1}$ not divisible by an integer $n>1$, we prove that for some nonempty $I\subseteq\{1,\ldots,2n-1\}$ with $|I|\leqslant n$, the sum $\sum_{i\in I}a_i$ is divisible by $n$ but not divisible by $n^2$. We also pose several conjectures for further research.
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Numerical Analysis

LGNO: A Local-Global Neural Operator for Hyperbolic Conservation Laws

Solutions of hyperbolic conservation laws exhibit both smooth structures across large scales and sharp localized features such as shocks and contact discontinuities, making them difficult to approximate accurately with existing neural operators. The Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) captures long-range interactions well but tends to smear localized structures through excessive numerical dissipation. To address this, we propose a Local-Global Neural Operator (LGNO) that learns a one-step discrete flow map by combining a global FNO branch for representing smooth dynamics at large scales with a local multiresolution branch for enhancing localized discontinuities and nonsmooth features. The model is trained with a one-step loss that combines a physical space prediction term and a spectral penalty on high frequencies to suppress spurious oscillations near steep fronts. On a large collection of benchmarks in one and two dimensions, LGNO consistently outperforms FNO baselines with matched parameter counts, reducing one-step errors by factors of 2-5 and remaining significantly more accurate over long autoregressive rollouts. Most strikingly, although it is trained only on short-time data from a high-order WENO-Z scheme, the long-time rollout of LGNO on a coarse $256^2$ grid exhibits lower numerical dissipation than the same WENO-Z scheme run on a finer $512^2$ grid, while being orders of magnitude cheaper to evaluate. These results suggest that, with an appropriate architecture and training objective, learned operators can effectively learn discrete flow maps. They further suggest that such learned operators have the potential to control long-time numerical dissipation better than the conventional shock-capturing schemes that generate the training data.
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Probability

Finite-Time Queue Peak Laws in Stochastic Networks: Logarithmic Scaling After Geometric Thresholds

We study finite-horizon queue peaks in generalized switches, a standard stochastic-network model in which many queues share constrained service resources. Arrivals may be dependent, nonstationary, and responsive to the system history; the only load condition is uniform interior slack, meaning the conditional mean arrival vector stays in a fixed contraction of the capacity region. We show that this slack reshapes the finite-time peak law for drift-minimizing scheduling policies such as MaxWeight. The square-root envelope that is sharp without slack persists only up to a geometry-dependent threshold; beyond that threshold, the running maximum grows only logarithmically with the horizon, both with high probability and in expectation. The mechanism is self-normalization: in the current queue direction, the projected fluctuation scale is normalized by the stabilizing drift scale. This removes capacity geometry from the logarithmic coefficient, while geometry remains in the threshold. Matching lower bounds show that both the logarithmic term and a geometric threshold are unavoidable. When finite-time state-space collapse is available, the threshold can be sharpened using local bottleneck geometry. For generalized input-queued switches, we obtain finite-time peak bounds with tight logarithmic coefficients. Simulations illustrate the two-phase envelope, local geometric refinements, and variance-sensitive improvements predicted by the theory.
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Analysis of PDEs

Time and Killed Resolvents in Reflected Optimal Stopping with a Max Payoff

We study infinite-horizon optimal stopping for normally reflected two-dimensional diffusions in the positive quadrant with max payoff \(G(x_1,x_2)=x_1\vee\alpha x_2\). The non-smooth payoff produces a singular stopping-gain measure on the kink set \(\Delta=\{x_1=\alpha x_2\}\). We prove $\displaystyle \Gamma^\Delta(dx) = -\frac{n^\top a(x)n}{2\sqrt{1+\alpha^2}}\,\sigma_\Delta(dx)$, with $n=(1,-\alpha)$, so the diagonal component is non-positive and strictly negative under local ellipticity. This implies that every interior kink point lies in the continuation region. We further show that the correct value representation uses the resolvent killed at first entry into the stopping set, $\displaystyle V=G-R_r^{\mathcal C}\Gamma$, and give a closed-form reflected Brownian counter-example showing that the unrestricted reflected resolvent is generally wrong. A reflected Brownian benchmark and numerical experiments illustrate the local-time, resolvent-gap, and diagonal-avoidance mechanisms.
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Analysis of PDEs

Inverse problems for a nonlinear dynamical Schrödinger operator with magnetic potential

We study two inverse problems for a nonlinear dynamical Schrödinger equation with time-dependent magnetic and electric potentials. Under suitable analyticity assumptions, we show that the associated Dirichlet-to-Neumann map uniquely determines the linear magnetic potential and all coefficients of the nonlinear electric potential. We establish both full-data and partial-data uniqueness results. For the partial data problem, assuming that the coefficients are known in a neighborhood of the boundary, uniqueness is obtained using measurements made on arbitrarily small open subsets of the boundary. In addition, we establish the well-posedness of the forward problem.
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Complex Variables

The Absorption Theorem for the Beltrami-Vekua Normal Form

The Beltrami-Vekua normal form assigns to every smooth first-order real planar elliptic system a complex equation $w_{\bar z}-\mu w_z+\mathcal{A}w+\mathcal{B}\bar w=\mathcal{F}$ by an explicit pipeline. A companion paper showed that the density $\Theta=|\mathcal{B}|^2/(1-|\mu|^2)\,dx\,dy$ and its total mass are invariants under multiplicative gauges $w\mapsto\phi w$ and orientation-preserving diffeomorphisms. The real system carries a larger symmetry: its unknowns may be recombined by any pointwise invertible real-linear substitution $w=\varphi v'+\psi\bar v'$, the complex gauges being the case $\psi\equiv0$. We prove the absorption theorem: re-normalizing through the pipeline after any such substitution returns to the gauge orbit of the original equation, with a universal explicit gauge $\tilde\varphi=-i\lambda/(\varphi-\psi)$, where $\lambda$ is the spectral root of the structure polynomial.
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Logic

From the Cherlin-Zilber Conjecture via sharply $2$-transitive groups to the Burnside problem

We review the current state of the Cherlin-Zilber Algebraicity Conjecture on simple groups of finite Morley rank, which states that every such group is the group of $K$-rational points of an algebraic group for some algebraically closed field $K$. We will explain the relevance of sharply 2-transitive groups as a potential source of counterexamples and how the Burnside problem necessarily comes into the picture.
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Operator Algebras

Cartan subalgebras in self-similar graph $C^*$-algebras

For a self-similar graph $(G, E)$, we find a distinguished subgroupoid of the associated path groupoid $\mathcal{G}_{G,E}$ – the symmetric cycline subgroupoid $\mathcal{S}_{\text{sym}}$. If the acting group $G$ is abelian, we show that $\mathcal{S}_{\text{sym}}$ is open, abelian, and normal. For $G=\mathbb{Z}$, we describe the dual bundle $\hat{\mathcal{S}}_{\text{sym}}$ of $\mathcal{S}_{\text{sym}}$ which can be used to provide a different groupoid model for the self-similar graph $C^*$-algebra $\mathcal{O}_{\mathbb{Z}, E}\cong C^*_r(\mathcal{G}_{\mathbb{Z},E})$. For a large class of self-similar graphs $(\mathbb{Z}, E)$, we further prove that $\mathcal{S}_{\text{sym}}$ is maximal among open abelian subgroupoids of $\mathrm{Iso}(\mathcal{G}_{\mathbb{Z},E})^{\circ}$ and closed in $\mathcal{G}_{\mathbb{Z},E}$, so that it gives rise to a Cartan subalgebra of $\mathcal{O}_{\mathbb{Z}, E}$. This result seems new even for genuine actions. Our proofs heavily rely on careful studies of dynamical behaviours of cycline triples of $(\mathbb{Z}, E)$ and on a dynamical-flavour classification for the vertices of $E$. Some results hold in more general settings and may be of independent interest.
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All authors Dawn Archey, Anna Duwenig, Shanshan Hua, Kathryn McCormick, Rachael Norton, Dilian Yang

Numerical Analysis · Cross-listed from cs.MS

PDECheck: A Diagnostic Software Suite for Auditing Learned PDE Simulators

PDECheck audits learned PDE simulators through callable propagators or saved predictions. It evaluates relative $L^2$ error, temporal composition, finite-difference generators, and equation-specific physical residuals, retaining horizons and missing prerequisites. Analytic and manufactured defects verify the kernels. A heat-equation sweep quantifies generator sensitivity to timestep, frequency, grid, and precision. A three-equation, five-seed FNO study compares supervised, PINO-style, and composition-regularized training. An accuracy-matched advection comparison has state errors below 0.3% and a semigroup-error ratio of 1.48 (95% interval 1.34-1.62). The composition penalty lowers semigroup error but increases composed-state and longer-rollout prediction error. A time-reparameterization check produces identical low-error endpoints with different compositions. Applications to five external equation families exercise the readers and physical contracts on coarse grids. The release includes reproducibility artifacts and measured CPU/CUDA costs.
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Statistics Theory

Conformal Prediction Intervals with Tail-Specific Guarantees

This paper extends classical conformal frameworks for constructing prediction intervals with global marginal coverage $1-\alpha$ to intervals that provide explicitly calibrated guarantees for the upper and lower tails separately. Focusing on split conformal prediction, we first construct lower and upper one-sided conformal intervals that achieve marginal validity, and then derive the induced two-sided interval by intersection. Theoretical results prove both tail-specific and global marginal coverage of the induced two-sided interval. Results are presented first for the exchangeable setting, where coverage has finite-sample guarantees, and then for non-exchangeable data, where guarantees are asymptotic. Simulation studies show that the proposed approach achieves improved directional calibration relative to classical two-sided intervals, especially relevant in skewed data. Finally, the benefit of the proposed framework is showcased in a financial application, where one aims for return maximization while seeking strict control on the left tail.
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Dynamical Systems · Cross-listed from cs.GT

Ergodic Deviation-Robust Equilibrium under Mirror Descent Learning in Finite Games

We introduce Ergodic Deviation-Robust Equilibrium (EDRE), a dynamics-relative equilibrium concept for repeated finite games in which agents learn via entropic mirror descent (EMD). EDRE requires three properties to hold simultaneously for the same profile and learning run: (E1) the limit profile is an $\varepsilon$-Nash equilibrium at a product distribution; (E2) along the entire learning trajectory, every fixed coalition's cumulative aggregate (summed-unilateral) deviation gain is $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ with high probability; and (E3) the limit profile is a fixed point of the EMD map, so that it is selected by the dynamics rather than merely certified as an equilibrium. We prove that the $\sqrt{T}$ deviation-regret rate is order-tight, establish existence in exact-potential games (via Nash's theorem, with a constructive proximal route under concavity) together with Lyapunov monotonicity of EMD (and pointwise convergence when the fixed-point set is a singleton), and extend the selection property to monotone polymatrix games through variational inequalities. Although a static EDRE coincides with an $\varepsilon$-Nash equilibrium, its content is dynamic: robust (positive-measure) selection under EMD excludes linearly unstable equilibria, so EDRE acts as a Nash equilibrium equipped with a dynamic certificate rather than a static refinement. On the complexity side, we show that computing EDRE is PPAD-hard in general polymatrix games and belongs to promise-PPAD for potential games. A worked $2\times 2$ coordination-game example illustrates all components of the framework. Additional results, including a bandit-feedback extension, a period-doubling route to Li-Yorke chaos for the two-strategy EMD map at large step size, a linear-program formulation for minimum-cost steering, and supporting simulations, appear in the appendices.
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