Papers

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from longitudinal observational data is central to clinical decision support. Existing methods rely on domain confusion – adversarial training that renders representations invariant to treatment assignment – yet this invariance creates a mutual information conflict: it suppresses treatment-correlated covariate signals necessary for accurate outcome prediction. We formalise this tension via a Jensen-Shannon divergence bound on counterfactual prediction error and develop two complementary models. CSSD (Causal State-Space model with Direct decoder) adapts selective State Space Models with a parallel multi-step decoder that eliminates accumulated rollout error by producing all prediction horizons simultaneously in a single forward pass. CSSPD (Causal State-Space model with Predictive regularisation and Direct decoder) augments CSSD with Contrastive Predictive Coding and Local Information Maximisation to reinforce temporal predictability in the balancing representation and recover local covariate information destroyed by domain confusion. On MIMIC-III, CSSPD achieves lower counterfactual RMSE than the Causal Transformer at every horizon tau >= 2 at O(T) encoder cost, with gains from 0.02 (2-step) to 0.07 (6-step). On Cancer Simulation across confounding strengths gamma in {0,1,2,3,4}, CSSPD outperforms CT at gamma <= 3 (margins 25.9%–37.0%), and CSSD achieves the lowest overall average RMSE (12.7% reduction over CT), confirming the MI conflict analysis. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formalise the balancing-prediction MI conflict and propose a structured resolution through complementary predictive and information-theoretic training objectives.

Many functional data analyses reduce random functions to scalar summaries or conditional mean curves. This is limiting when we wish to understand how covariates affect the distribution of entire functional responses, including their shape, timing, or variability. We study the problem of estimating conditional laws of functional outcomes and show that these objects can be estimated and evaluated in a practical nonparametric framework. To do this, we introduce functional distributional random forests, which estimate each conditional law as a covariate-dependent distribution over sampled functions by training a random forest to minimize a kernel-based maximum mean discrepancy within the leaf nodes of the decision tree. This supports inference on arbitrary functionals of the conditional distribution while keeping predictive samples tied to realistic curves. We consider a variety of kernels defined on function spaces, including Sobolev and operator-induced kernels. We also provide conditions for consistency of our estimator and develop scoring rules for comparing it to baseline estimators. In simulations, our method recovers distributional changes that are missed by baseline methods. In an application to NHANES accelerometer data, it identifies interesting covariate-associated changes in both median activity profiles and predictive dispersion.

Growing shares of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) increase forecast uncertainty and variability, requiring flexibility reserves that adapt to changing operating conditions and reflect the likelihood and severity of forecast deviations. Conventional fixed-rule or Gaussian approaches misrepresent asymmetric, heavy-tailed errors, leading to inefficient procurement or optimistic risk estimates. This paper presents a source-agnostic framework that constructs conditional error distributions for load, wind, and solar from historical deviations or probabilistic forecasts, combines them into a conditional net-load error distribution, and derives upward and downward reserves using coverage- and risk-based criteria. Nonparametric density estimation captures empirical error behavior without a parametric assumption, while a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR)-based metric quantifies expected uncovered deviations. Experiments on a New York Independent System Operator (NYISO)-based synthetic dataset show that the framework meets target coverage with lower reserve volumes than static benchmarks and avoids the tail-risk distortion of Gaussian-based methods. Because reserves are built directly from the resource uncertainty distributions, the framework is transparent and interpretable, and it integrates seamlessly into existing production-cost models as deterministic reserve constraints, avoiding scenario-based stochastic optimization. It is implemented in the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI) DynADOR tool for operational reserve scheduling.

This work proposes deep nonparametric Instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR), a two-stage estimator that combines conditional diffusion modeling with a kernel-smoothed conditional moment formulation. In the first stage, we estimate the joint conditional distribution of the outcome and endogenous covariates given the instrument using a variance-preserving conditional diffusion model. In the second stage, we approximate the conditional moment operator through Monte Carlo sampling and a kernel-smoothed surrogate for the indicator function, and then estimate the structural quantile function by empirical risk minimization over deep neural networks. We establish an excess-risk bound for the proposed estimator and derive end-to-end total variation guarantees for the conditional diffusion model under unbounded support, explicitly accounting for score estimation, early stopping, and discretization errors. Our theory is developed under a polynomial-tail envelope on the data distribution and degenerates continuously to the exponential setting: as the tail index grows, the obtained excess-risk rate converges to the minimax-optimal rate of nonparametric regression, thus our heavy-tailed theory covers the classical light-tailed nonparametric guarantees as a limiting case. Simulation studies and a real-data application demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing nonparametric IVQR approaches, with gains that become increasingly pronounced as the dimensionality of the covariates and instruments increases.

We determine necessary and sufficient conditions for complete monotonicity of the Srivastava–Tomovski extension, a generalized Mittag–Leffler kernel arising in fractional calculus, while separating the defining generalized-Wright series from its positive-axis realization when the series is not entire. For positive parameters, let \(\Delta=1+\alpha-\kappa\). In the entire regime \(\Delta>0\), \(E_{\alpha,\beta}^{\gamma,\kappa}(-x)\) is completely monotone on \((0,\infty)\) if and only if \(\alpha\leq\kappa\) and \(\kappa\beta\geq\alpha\gamma\). For arbitrary positive parameters, the corresponding positive-axis realization satisfies the same criterion; when \(0<\alpha<\kappa\), it is defined by a second-kind Wright kernel and remains meaningful through the finite-radius and zero-radius phases of the defining series. We also identify the Bernstein measure in every admissible case. In the interior region it is, after normalization, the pushforward under \(t\mapsto t^\kappa\) of a power-biased Wright distribution; at \(\alpha=\kappa\) it becomes a powered beta law for \(\beta>\gamma\) and the atom \(\Gamma(\gamma)^{-1}\delta_1\) for \(\beta=\gamma\). Necessity in the excluded regions follows from a Mellin-transform zero, uniqueness of finite signed Laplace transforms, and moment-support asymptotics. The Prabhakar criterion is recovered by setting \(\kappa=1\).

A predictive correction is a prespecified modification of an existing predictive distribution intended to reflect an anticipated change in future outcomes given their inputs, motivated, for example, by instrument recalibration, assay drift, or a known intervention. We study how to accumulate anytime-valid evidence that such a correction predicts incoming target outcomes better than the uncorrected source predictive distribution. A fixed nonnegative tilt transforms the source predictive into a corrected predictive, and the corrected-to-source predictive likelihood ratio is a conditional e-value whose running product forms an e-process. This process remains valid under optional stopping and arbitrary input sequences, including adaptively selected ones, while its logarithm equals the cumulative predictive log-score advantage of the correction. A conditional drift decomposition characterizes evidence growth under an arbitrary target predictive distribution, and a correction-dependent half-space identifies misspecified target distributions for which the same false-confirmation bound continues to hold. When the predictive likelihood ratio is strictly positive, its reciprocal yields an anytime-valid refutation boundary, while an overshoot identity explains why the realized null crossing probability may fall below the nominal level. Label-shift, conditional mean and variance, subgroup-specific, and exponential-family corrections arise as special cases. Prespecified mixtures accommodate uncertainty over corrections, predictable tilts permit adaptive betting, and beyond-tolerance comparisons target changes large enough to justify action. Cross-family calculations and synthetic experiments show that a boundary crossing supports the proposed correction relative to its reference but does not uniquely identify the mechanism responsible for the shift.

In this paper, we propose a distribution-free test for detecting changepoint in the mean direction of angular data. The uncertainty in angular measurements is quantified through the square of an angle, derived from the intrinsic geometry of the torus. It is established that, under the null hypothesis, the test statistic distributionally converges to the Kolmogorov distribution, while under the alternative hypothesis, both the consistency of the test and the asymptotic properties of the changepoint estimator are established. Through extensive simulations, we compare the empirical performance of the proposed method with two existing approaches for angular data and further benchmark it against a test based on the circular arc length distance. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of our approach by analyzing the timestamps of extreme events in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Gold price datasets, where the continuous, high-frequency nature of the data is modeled in the circular framework.

In the classical normal means problem, independent train–test folds can be constructed by perturbing the data with normal randomization. Averaging over $K$ such folds yields a cross-validation estimator whose bias depends on the marginal distribution of the randomization variables, while its variance depends on their joint distribution. This raises the questions: which joint law is optimal, and how to construct the corresponding randomization scheme? We show that: (i) for smooth estimators, antithetic randomization with pairwise correlation $\rho=-1/(K-1)$ is necessary and sufficient for the reducible variance due to randomization to remain bounded as the bias vanishes; (ii) a general construction yields a class of antithetic schemes, within which the jointly normal scheme is minimax optimal; and (iii) for non-smooth estimators with finitely many jump discontinuities, antithetic randomization improves the asymptotic rate of the reducible variance, while a simple control variate restores bounded variance when the discontinuities are known.

In this paper, we introduce StatCite, a large-scale citation network dataset covering publications in statistics and data science from 1981 to 2025. The dataset contains 189,101 research articles collected from 62 representative journals and provides bibliographic metadata, including title, author list, publisher, published year, abstract, keywords, and reference list. Based on the collected publications, we construct four complementary citation-based networks, namely the paper citation network, the co-citation network, the bibliographic coupling network, and the journal citation network. To illustrate the utility of the dataset, we present descriptive analyses of the constructed networks and investigate the community structure of the paper citation network. The results show that StatCite preserves key structural characteristics commonly observed in large-scale citation networks and captures several major research areas in statistics and data science. By integrating multiple network representations with rich textual metadata, StatCite provides a valuable resource for statistical analysis, knowledge discovery, and data-driven studies of scientific literature.

Online platforms prioritize long-term business outcomes, yet typical experiments are far too short to measure these outcomes directly. Our goal in this paper is to collect and share industry knowledge on how to make decisions from short-term experiments that are better aligned with long-term outcomes. Based on a daylong workshop with 26 experts from 15 online platforms and 4 universities, we formulate a series of propositions that reflect current industry knowledge. Participants largely agreed that reversals of sign from short-run to long-run treatment effects are rare, with reversals concentrating in specific cases such as treatments involving content quality signals, hyper-monetization, and pricing. Although the magnitude of treatment effects can shift over time, a "univariate autosurrogate", corresponding to the short-run treatment effect on the long-run metric of interest, is often hard to beat. A recurring theme was the importance of surrogates that are not only (or even primarily) unbiased for true long-run outcomes, but that improve decision-making. Thus, participants generally agreed that simple, interpretable surrogates were generally preferable to elaborate but hard-to-explain surrogate indices. Participants also agreed that, due to concerns about confounding and transportability, experimentally-learned surrogates are generally preferable to observationally-learned surrogates. However, the drawback is that learning good surrogates from experiments typically requires a large, representative portfolio of long-run experiments that few platforms possess. We conclude that there is no substitute for a well-run long-term experiment, whether for learning surrogates or validating them, and we highlight open challenges including evolving treatments, persistent treatments not fully mediated by short-term proxies, and mismatch between experimental samples and the target population.

As machine learned models increase in complexity and expressive power, features of simpler models, such as intrinsic coefficient transparency and control over the shape of the modeled function are lost. On the one edge of the spectrum we have simple linear models that possess coefficient transparency, but have a limited expressive power. On the other edge we have neural networks, that have expressive power that improves with scaling, but are mostly opaque. In this work we develop the spectral neuron concept: a scalar model given by $f(x)=\lambda_k (A_0 + A_1 x + ... + A_n x_n)$, with learned real symmetric matrices $A_0, ..., A_n$. The input enters the model through an affine matrix function, but the prediction is obtained by reading one of its eigenvalues. Thus, the model is nonlinear, but the source of nonlinearity is still mathematically explicit. This gives us a useful middle ground: the model can become more expressive as the matrix dimension grows, while retaining coefficient transparency through the learned matrices. For example, extremal eigenvalues yield convex or concave functions, semidefinite constraints on the coefficient matrices impose monotonicity, and the associated eigenspaces characterize local feature influence. We study coefficient transparency, feature-influence bounds, and shape-control properties of this model family, and then test whether it can be learned and scaled in practice. We develop a systematic study of this model family, bringing together spectral results from several mathematical literatures to characterize its expressivity, coefficient transparency, feature influence, and shape-control properties. Code available at https://github.com/alexshtf/spectral_neuron_paper.

Two-way contingency tables are tested for independence throughout applied statistics (genomics, network and text co-occurrence, pharmacovigilance, ecology, survey cross-tabulation), and the routine test reads asymptotic Gaussian tail probabilities off the table cell by cell. On the tables people actually analyze this is badly miscalibrated: across 5,543 real public two-way tables, two-thirds have counts small enough or margins heterogeneous enough that the asymptotic maximum-cell independence scan false-positives at a mean 33% against a 0.05 target, while an exact margin-conditional anchor holds at about 1%. The failure is sharpest when the departure is sparse, the association concentrated in a few cells, where the omnibus chi-square is inefficient and the sharp object is the detection boundary. In three parts we answer where a sparse signal can be seen, which combiner attains that limit, and how to calibrate at small counts. Part I specializes the sparse-detection theory of Ingster (1997), Donoho and Jin (2004), and Chhor, Mukherjee and Sen (2024) to independence: the table is a heteroscedastic Gaussian sequence whose variance profile is the expected-count table, fixed by the margins via CVe^2 = (1 + CVr^2)(1 + CVc^2) - 1, giving an exact signal map and a closed-form separation radius valid under a moderate-deviation growing-count condition. Part II shows higher criticism, with its closed-form Jaeschke-Eicker null, attains that boundary adaptively over unknown sparsity. Part III measures the small-count calibration failure (size 0.3 to 0.6 even under uniform margins, so the driver is the per-cell tail), removes it with exact margin-conditional laws (size 0.003 to 0.009), and gives a routing rule sending large-count tables to the asymptotic gate and small-count tables to the exact anchor. Every claim is reproduced from openly deposited, deterministically seeded code.

Lipschitz bandits admit near-optimal regret $\widetilde O_d(T^{(d+1)/(d+2)})$ with little memory under full adaptivity, or with few batches under unrestricted memory. We characterize the minimax expected pseudo-regret over $T$ rounds with $W$ bits of memory and at most $B$ batches in dimension $d$. For every memory budget $W$, we prove a lower bound of order $T^{\frac{d+2}{d+3}} (1+(B-1)W)^{-\frac{1}{d(d+3)}}$. When $W\gtrsim_d\log(eT)$, algorithms with fixed batch boundaries attain, up to logarithmic factors, the larger of this bound and the optimal $B$-batch regret with unrestricted memory. The analysis separates fine-scale comparisons from the regional information needed to allocate their samples at low regret. Attaining $\widetilde O_d(T^{(d+1)/(d+2)})$ regret requires both $B=\Omega_d(\log\log T)$ and $(B-1)W=\widetilde{\Omega}_d(T^{d/(d+2)})$. With one bit of memory, minimax regret is $\widetilde\Theta_d(TB^{-1/(d+2)})$ under adaptive batch boundaries while $\Theta_d(T)$ under fixed boundaries.

Simulating container transshipment hubs requires vessel arrivals reflecting cyclical liner schedules and origin-destination (OD) cargo pairing. Existing models relying on Poisson arrivals and aggregate transshipment volumes severely distort waiting-time and yard-occupancy predictions. We propose a three-phase schedule generator, calibrated entirely from public port statistics, eliminating the need for proprietary data. The framework introduces a two-level Gamma mathematical model that balances structured weekly services with operational perturbations. For cargo routing, we develop GreedyDwellFit (GDF), a fast allocation heuristic to pair transshipment batches to specific connecting services using a gravity model. Validated against Busan and Singapore mega-hubs, the model reproduces throughput and call frequencies with under 1% error. Our results show that replacing Poisson models with this Gamma-GDF framework eliminates significant distortions in terminal performance projections, offering a robust, generalisable foundation for port simulation.

Accurate, up-to-date income data at the sub-municipal scale is essential for social policy in middle-income countries, yet in Brazil it depends on a costly decennial census whose intercensal gap recently exceeded a decade. We test whether the composition of crowd-sourced Google Maps Points of Interest (POIs) can serve as a high-frequency, low-cost proxy for household income across the 26,625 census sectors of the municipality of Sao Paulo. Using a theoretically motivated set of POI categories retrieved from Google Places, we represent each sector by its POI counts, decompose these high-dimensional, sparse features with principal component analysis (PCA) and non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), and train a sweep of regression models to predict census-derived income. Under a data leakage-aware spatial validation design the best model (NMF with gradient boosting) attains a held-out R^2 of 0.65, with performance stable across feature-extraction methods. Interpretable decompositions reveal which POI types carry the income signal. These results suggest that commercial, crowd-sourced geospatial data can complement conventional income statistics during intercensal periods, and we discuss extensions toward multidimensional poverty and the capabilities framework.

We study the problem of testing independence between the coordinate processes of a jointly stationary ergodic binary process from finite observations. We prove that no test is pointwise consistent in probability: any procedure whose power tends to one against every dependent law must have nonvanishing false-positive probability on some independent stationary ergodic law along infinitely many sample sizes. Quantitatively, for some jointly stationary ergodic law with independent coordinate processes, the false-positive probability has limsup at least $1/2$. Thus, even under stationarity and ergodicity, independence cannot be consistently decided from increasingly long finite samples. The proof combines a diagonal construction with rare markers that create detectable dependence at selected scales while converging to a limiting process whose coordinates are independent.

Preferential Bayesian optimization (PBO) optimizes objectives accessible only through pairwise user comparisons. The standard approach fits a Gaussian process surrogate for observed pairwise comparisons (PairwiseGP) using the Laplace approximation and selects queries with the Expected Utility of Best Option (EUBO) acquisition function. EUBO queries new candidates at each step, producing pairs that share no candidates with previous queries. Each such pair forms an isolated component in the comparison graph, removing one degree of freedom from the likelihood Hessian and making it rank-deficient. This deficiency is structural and cannot be resolved by changing the surrogate modeling approach. Existing approaches to remedy this issue either waste query budget by forcing comparisons to stay connected, or apply uniform regularization that also perturbs directions already well-constrained by the observed comparisons. We propose KappaSharp that enables a diagonal correction to the Hessian to reduce its condition number, with larger corrections where the prior uncertainty is higher. The correction is only applied in the model fitting step, not query selection. An adaptive variant of KappaSharp is also presented that activates the correction only when the surrogate is confident about recent comparisons, avoiding unnecessary corrections when the problem is well-conditioned. On 11 benchmarks (5–20 dimensions), including a 16-dimensional controller tuning problem in plasma medicine, Adaptive KappaSharp outperforms the standard PBO baseline, with up to +10.9% ($p{=}0.003$).

We prove a filtration-level conversion from uniform fixed-time testing to all-sample one-sided error control and uniform future-tail control. Given an adapted deterministic binary test whose worst-case fixed-time error tends to zero, the construction selects update times with prescribed summable error budgets and holds each selected decision until the next update. For every prescribed significance level, the construction yields a test that controls Type I error at every sample size; from each update time onward, the probability of any subsequent error is bounded uniformly over each hypothesis class by the remaining budget. Hence the test is uniformly consistent and eventually correct almost surely under both hypotheses. Applying the conversion to finite-alphabet coordinate processes proves the first implication in Ryabko's Conjecture 5.2.

In his recent breakthrough work [JASA, 2021], Chatterjee proposed a rank-based correlation coefficient $\xi(X,Y)$ to measure the dependence of a random variable $Y$ on $X$. Unlike classical measures such as Pearson, Spearman, or Kendall, $\xi$ satisfies $\xi=0$ if and only if $X$ and $Y$ are independent, and $\xi=1$ if and only if $Y$ is a measurable function of $X$, without requiring monotonicity or linearity. This paper proposes a refined measure of $\xi(X,Y)$ and investigates its theoretical properties. We derive several equivalent representations, construct an estimator, and establish its strong consistency as well as its asymptotic distribution. A natural extension of the proposed framework is also presented. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed estimator outperforms Chatterjee's rank correlation in terms of finite-sample performance, particularly in controlling Type I error under the null.

The Cox model remains the default for survival analysis, but the proportional hazards assumption is often violated and hazard ratios can be difficult to interpret. Accelerated failure time (AFT) models provide an intuitive time-scale alternative, yet flexible covariate adjustment while preserving valid inference on a target exposure remains challenging. For the partially linear AFT model under right censoring, a rank-based debiased machine learning (DML) framework remains undeveloped: the rank-based pairwise moment is not Neyman orthogonal and standard cross-fitting does not directly apply to U-statistics. We develop the first such framework by combining an orthogonalized rank-based U-statistic, a censoring-corrected influence function, and block-pairwise cross-fitting, yielding valid inference under flexible nuisance estimation. Simulations and an application to All of Us electronic health record data demonstrate finite-sample performance and practical utility.

In sampling problems, gradient-based schemes such as Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) mix faster than non-gradient-based methods, but their applicability is limited by access to the gradient of the target log-density. In practice, gradients are often unavailable and function evaluations are noisy, e.g., stochastic simulators or black-box simulators, so we propose LMC-SPSA with noise, which approximates the gradient of the target log-density using two noisy function evaluations per iteration. We prove, under noisy gradient estimates, that LMC-SPSA converges in distribution by proving the convergence in Wasserstein distance. Furthermore, we construct a diminishing step-size schedule that still drives the Wasserstein error bound to convergence, extending convergence guarantees beyond the constant-step setting. Further, we sharpen the dominant dimension dependence of the Wasserstein error from $O(p^4)$ to $O(p^2)$ (with $p$ denoting the dimension), and support this analysis with numerical results. We show that LMC-SPSA achieves $W_2$-accuracy $\varepsilon$ with total noisy-oracle complexity of $O(p/\varepsilon^2+\delta^2p^3/\varepsilon^3)$, where $\delta$ is the paired-noise level. This improves the noise-dependent accuracy scaling relative to the ZO-LMC method of Roy et al. We further establish asymptotically vanishing Wasserstein error as the number of iterations $\to\infty$ under diminishing step-size and perturbation sequences and derive an explicit convergence rate for a balanced schedule under noisy zeroth-order feedback. Empirical experiments are conducted to verify the performance of LMC-SPSA with noise. We provide an oracle-budget-matched comparison with the ZO-LMC method, showing smaller empirical sampling errors under the same function-evaluation budget.

Estimating individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) is fundamental in data-driven personalized decision-making problems, such as precision medicine. Most of the ITR literature either focuses on categorical/continuous treatments or assumes no unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we make the first attempt to estimate the optimal individualized functional treatment regime (IFTR) for observational data where the treatment is a function and unmeasured confounding is present. We establish an identification result for a class of IFTRs under the proximal causal inference framework. Based on the identification result, we develop an algorithm of finding the optimal IFTR. The appealing practical performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by a simulation study. The proposed method is applied to an accelerometry dataset collected by the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to find the optimal physical activity distribution for the best of the Triglyceride-Glucose index.

Public health forecasts must respond to abrupt changes in surveillance data without over-extrapolating noise, reporting artifacts, or temporary trends. We evaluated autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models using 190 weekly observations of publicly available Ontario COVID-19 case counts from January 2020 to October 2023. Rolling-origin time-series cross-validation preserved temporal order during model tuning and evaluation. Performance was assessed across three operating dimensions: responsiveness following selected turning points, forecast horizons of one to six weeks, and the amount of historical training data. We also developed Machine Learning and ARIMA Model Averaging (MLAMA), a non-negative performance-weighted ensemble with weights that vary by forecast horizon and responsiveness setting. Retrospective comparisons showed that ARIMA adapted rapidly after turning points but its normalized error increased at longer horizons. Random forest and XGBoost were less responsive initially but maintained more stable normalized error over longer horizons. For two-week forecasts at the end of the study period, training on the most recent data outperformed using longer historical periods, particularly for XGBoost. MLAMA achieved the lowest normalized mean absolute percentage error across most forecast horizons and ranked among the best-performing methods across responsiveness settings. These findings support selecting forecasting models according to operating conditions rather than relying on a single universally preferred approach. MLAMA provides a practical framework for combining complementary statistical and machine-learning forecasts. The accompanying Python package is currently maintained in a private repository while software validation and reproducibility testing are completed.

Prediction intervals for multi-modal regression with tabular variables, text, images, or other input sources are difficult to calibrate when those sources disagree or one is missing. A single global quantile averages these regimes together instead of calibrating to the modality pattern observed at test time. We address this through a modality-aware conformal calibration layer. The layer trains or reuses one predictor per modality, computes a disagreement score from their predictions, and uses that score in split conformal calibration under a strict split protocol. We use the score in two complementary ways. First, a continuous disagreement-scaled method reallocates interval width across examples while preserving the usual marginal split-conformal guarantee. Second, a Mondrian (stratified) method calibrates within groups defined by disagreement or modality availability fixed before calibration, giving group guarantees under joint exchangeability of the calibration and test examples. Across four multi-modal datasets, the disagreement-scaled layer matches or improves the marginal conformal baseline in 59 of 60 paired runs for interval continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and in 52 of 60 for interval width, while keeping empirical coverage near the 95% target. In stress tests with missing modalities, mask-matched recalibration recovers up to 19.5 percentage points of coverage in the hardest fixed-mask regime. The result is a simple, model-agnostic reliability layer for multi-modal regression systems. A project page is available at https://unco3892.github.io/modality-aware-conformal.

Large-scale assessments suppress subgroup achievement estimates below minimum sample size thresholds, such as the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) rule of 62, disproportionately affecting historically underrepresented groups. This study introduces Small Area Bayesian Dynamic Borrowing (SABDB), a unit-level small area estimation method assigning each regression coefficient its own between-area variance, so cross-area borrowing adapts to each coefficient's heterogeneity. We compare SABDB against the unit-level Hierarchical Bayesian Small Area Estimation (HBSAE) model in a simulation study and an empirical case study. The simulation mimics the NAEP eighth-grade mathematics assessment, and the case study uses the PISA 2018 dataset. Across both studies, SABDB achieved near-nominal coverage, whereas HBSAE's intervals were narrow but severely miscalibrated.

These days, Sri Lanka is facing a severe dengue outbreak. In this situation, it is very useful to provide an overall understanding of Sri Lanka's historical dengue trends as well as the current dengue situation. A dashboard is an easy and effective way to convey a large amount of information to the public. Therefore, the Sri Lanka Dengue Dashboard is an initial attempt to provide comprehensive information about the dengue situation in Sri Lanka, together with the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases. Keywords: Data visualization, Heat map, Climate-dengue relationship, Tree map, Time series analysis, Quarto, Dashboard, Dengue fever

Sampling high-dimensional probability distributions is a central task in scientific computing, with applications ranging from Bayesian inference to statistical physics and molecular simulation. Despite decades of methodological developments, two major challenges remain: scaling to high dimensions and efficiently exploring multimodal distributions characterized by metastable states. Classical approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, tempering methods, or enhanced sampling based on collective variables have achieved major successes, but they also face intrinsic limitations. This tutorial review explores a new paradigm that has recently emerged at the interface of machine learning and computational statistical physics: the use of generative models as tools for sampling. In this context, models such as normalizing flows and diffusion models are not used in their traditional data-driven setting, but rather as flexible probabilistic models that can assist the sampling of distributions known only up to a normalization constant. This manuscript reviews the early development of this rapidly evolving field and discusses several methodological directions, including exact samplers based on generative models and strategies to train such models in the absence of data. While an exhaustive survey of the literature is not attempted, we present a selection of key ideas and methods, along with a discussion of their strengths and limitations. The review is intended to be an accessible tutorial for both physics and machine learning audiences, and it aims to provide a starting point for researchers interested in exploring this exciting area of research.

Surrogate endpoints are widely used in clinical trials to accelerate treatment evaluation, yet their validity may vary substantially across patient subgroups. Although recent advances in heterogeneous causal mediation analysis enable subgroup-specific surrogate evaluation, applying these methods requires substantial expertise in causal inference, statistical programming, and clinical trial methodology, limiting their accessibility to many biomedical researchers. We present SurroPilot, a large language model (LLM)-assisted platform for heterogeneous surrogate endpoint evaluation in clinical trials. Through natural-language interaction, SurroPilot supports the complete analytical workflow, including dataset understanding, data preprocessing, mediator and covariate selection, heterogeneous causal mediation analysis, subgroup interpretation, and automated report generation. To improve the reliability of AI-assisted statistical computing, the platform incorporates a shared context programmerinspector framework for iterative R code correction and automated validation of LLM-generated variable selections. Rather than replacing statistical methodology, SurroPilot integrates LLM with a validated heterogeneous mediation framework, allowing the LLM to assist with analytical reasoning while statistical inference is performed using established causal inference methods. Using the ACTG175 Phase III HIV clinical trial, we demonstrate that SurroPilot provides an end-to-end, reproducible workflow for heterogeneous surrogate endpoint evaluation and substantially lowers the technical barriers to applying advanced causal mediation methods in clinical trial research.

We adapt two classical statistical estimators for quantifying uncertainty to modern deep learning, in order to provide clearer insights into uncertainty attributable to two sources : aleatoric uncertainty, or locally scarce data. Our approach leverages recent advances in approximate Fisher Information Matrices, to enable scaling to actual architectures. Experimental results demonstrate how each test points is differentially impacted by both sources, highlighting the practical utility of our estimators in improving the robustness of real-world applications.

Stochastic gradient descent for a loss function discontinuous across lower dimensional manifolds is analyzed by studying its differential equation limit.