Papers

In fixed-budget best-arm identification, also known as ranking and selection, an algorithm has a sampling budget to distribute across $K$ arms. Each sample provides noisy feedback about that arm's mean, and the goal is to identify the arm with the largest mean. A common performance benchmark is the static oracle: a non-adaptive strategy that knows the means in advance and chooses fixed sampling proportions to maximize the exponential decay rate of the probability of incorrect identification. Several adaptive algorithms have been constructed such that their sampling proportions converge to the static oracle proportions. However, it has remained open whether any algorithm could match the static oracle's error decay rate uniformly across all problem instances. We answer this in the negative. For any $K\ge 3$ and for rewards drawn from any one-parameter natural exponential family, we show that for any algorithm, there is at least one instance where the error decay rate is at most $\left(1 + \frac{\log(K)}{8}\right)^{-1}$ times that of the static oracle. This also answers the open question posed by Qin (2022), showing that fixed-budget best-arm identification does not admit a complexity.

Sampling from multimodal distributions is a longstanding challenge for classical local Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. A popular remedy is to introduce a sequence of intermediate distributions that interpolate between the target and a simpler reference. The classical choice, tempering, raises the density to a power, but distorts the relative weights of asymmetric modes and can lead to poor mixing. We instead propose interpolating along the diffusion path, the marginals of a noising diffusion process that carries the target toward a Gaussian. This path preserves the relative weights of the modes and enjoys favorable mixing properties, which we make precise through a spectral-gap analysis of the corresponding ideal transition kernel. Sampling along the path requires its intermediate scores, which can be estimated from the unnormalized target through variational approaches, yielding only an approximate sampler. To remove the resulting bias, we introduce the Metropolis-adjusted diffusion path (MAD-Path) sampler, which corrects the diffusion-path proposal in an augmented path space and leaves the target invariant regardless of the accuracy of the learned score or the discretization error. We further quantify how these two errors affect the acceptance probability, providing guidance for practical tuning. Experiments on a range of Bayesian posteriors show that MAD-Path improves global exploration and mode-weight estimation relative to tempering-based MCMC methods and unadjusted diffusion samplers.

Distributional reinforcement learning agents learn full return distributions that are increasingly read at face value: for interpretability, risk-sensitive control, and safety monitoring. We ask a question theory anticipates but that has not been measured directly: are the risk claims of a trained distributional agent true? Our audit combines a decision-relevant screening metric (the excess Wasserstein gap between the top two actions, which equals the mass by which first-order stochastic dominance is violated), ground truth from snapshot-restart Monte Carlo, and a statistical harness (permutation nulls, bootstrap refutation, FDR control) without which the audit itself manufactures false conclusions. Across QR-DQN, C51, and IQN on MinAtar (33 runs), 40-95% of the strongest claimed risk trade-offs are refuted at 95% confidence, the placement of the strongest claims is statistically indistinguishable from truth-blind, and essentially no claim is confirmable: for these agents, the learned "risk" reflects a training artifact rather than environment stochasticity. The artifact is structural (fully formed early in training, uncorrelated with final score, idiosyncratic to each seed) and appears unchanged at full-Atari scale, with every top Breakout claim of a pretrained near-state-of-the-art QR-DQN refuted. Positive controls of known magnitude confirm 96-100% of real claims (correlation 0.89-0.92): the reading measures the agents, not the audit. Acting on the heads' CVaR advice at their most-flagged states ranges from beneficial to significantly worse than chance. Neither training for risk nor ensembling removes the artifact, and recalibration passes the audit only by nullifying the claims: the head is uninformative, not merely miscalibrated. We release the toolkit and document two silent pitfalls that produced convincing but wrong audits of our own.

We propose a collaborative meta-learning framework for distributed Bayesian optimization matching centralized performance without raw-data exchange. We show gradient sharing leaks client observations, with leakage worsening as the search converges and queries concentrate near the optimum. We evaluate a differentially private defense and characterize its privacy-utility trade-off.

High-dimensional biomarkers such as gene expression levels are now routinely measured over time, allowing biological processes to be studied dynamically rather than through cross-sectional snapshots. However, existing methods do not adequately address the central applied challenges posed by such data: simultaneously reducing dimensionality, quantifying inter-individual variability and uncovering temporal structure shared across biomarkers. We introduce Partition Functional Principal Component Analysis (PFPCA), a Bayesian model that jointly learns shared temporal patterns and clusters variables according to their latent dynamics. PFPCA combines a mixture model with multivariate functional principal component analysis performed within each group. We develop a scalable mean-field variational algorithm for joint inference of functional principal component loadings, individual-level scores, group assignments and partition sizes. Simulations show clear gains from joint inference: PFPCA recovers both the partition and the latent functional structure more accurately than a two-step baseline. In the most challenging settings, PFPCA retrieves the true partition in 27% of replicates compared with 1% for the two-step baseline. Applied to longitudinal gene-expression data from individuals experimentally infected with H3N2 influenza virus, PFPCA identifies groups of genes with coordinated activation patterns and reveals temporal signatures associated with immune-response dynamics and symptom status.

Causal discovery from observational tabular data remains fundamentally challenging, primarily due to the heterogeneity of underlying causal mechanisms and the high-dimensional combinatorial search space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). In this paper, we propose DAG-FM, a novel foundation model architecture that amortizes causal discovery. Unlike direct matrix prediction, DAG-FM decomposes the causal discovery process into two auto-regressive stages using two specialized Transformer-based sub-modules: a leaf-node predictor and a parent-node predictor. To effectively model complex row-column interactions, we adopt a robust tabular interaction block to output feature-wise representations. Crucially, to handle diverse and unknown Functional Causal Model (FCM) assumptions in real-world scenarios, we introduce Mixture-of-Leaf-Experts (MoLE), allowing the model to dynamically route and adapt to identifiable mechanism families. Through an iterative inference algorithm, DAG-FM seamlessly extracts causal orderings and constructs valid DAGs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DAG-FM achieves state-of-the-art performance on both synthetic benchmarks and complex real-world datasets, significantly outperforming traditional classical algorithms and recent foundation models in both accuracy and scalability.

Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines. Over the past decades, numerous algorithms have been developed to tackle this challenge through workflows tailored to the specific causal mechanisms underlying each type of dataset, demonstrating effectiveness across a wide range of applications. However, as the volume and heterogeneity of real-world data continue to grow, this dataset-specific approach inevitably leads to a fragmented, test-driven paradigm that struggles to scale to the demands of modern scientific discovery. To address this, we formulate the Causal Discovery Foundation Model (CDFM) as a unified, general-purpose framework for zero-shot structural inference. To ensure reliable generalization across unknown domains, we first investigate the theoretical boundaries of causal identifiability, revealing the indispensable role of causal prior mechanisms in this process. Building on these insights, we formulate a principled variational framework that treats unknown causal mechanisms as latent variables and mathematically decomposes the intractable marginal likelihood into distinct, tractable learning modules. The variational decomposition provides a conceptual design principle for the architecture design of CDFM, while comprehensive causal knowledge guides the large-scale synthesis of our pretraining data. By pretraining on a massive, highly diverse space of synthetic structural causal models, CDFM successfully internalizes complex statistical asymmetries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CDFM consistently outperforms traditional algorithms, driving a paradigm shift toward a general-purpose causal discovery foundation model.

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for integrating solar and wind generation into modern power systems, where operators must weigh risk rather than act on point forecasts alone. Existing probabilistic methods, however, often either lack finite-sample validity or require per-site recalibration, so a single model rarely transfers across the diverse climates of a dispersed generation fleet. This paper proposes a heteroscedastic, asymmetric, group-conditional split-conformal framework built on a bootstrap-diverse XGBoost ensemble, producing prediction intervals that adapt in width to local difficulty while retaining distribution-free coverage guarantees. A single fixed specification, with no per-site or per-horizon tuning, is evaluated across four climatologically distinct sites spanning both hemispheres, at horizons of 1 to 12 hours, for both solar irradiance and wind speed. The framework holds near-nominal coverage on both targets and reduces the Interval Score by up to 35% relative to competitive baselines, with the calibration and sharpness of its intervals shown to be properties of the method rather than of site-specific tuning.

Subgroup analysis is important in practice because real-world data typically come from heterogeneous populations, where meaningful patterns can differ substantially across subpopulations. Correctly identifying these subgroups can improve prediction accuracy, prevent biased or misleading conclusions, and support more effective, targeted decision-making. While most existing subgroup analysis methods are developed for complete data, in this paper we propose a novel and robust approach for censored data under heterogeneous accelerated failure time (AFT) models. Specifically, we combine inverse probability weighting, M-estimation, and concave pairwise fusion penalization to simultaneously identify subgroups and estimate covariate effects for heterogeneous censored data, without requiring prior knowledge of individual subgroup memberships. We further develop an efficient RISA-ADMM algorithm to implement the method and establish its convergence. Furthermore, we derive the theoretical properties of the proposed estimators under mild regularity conditions. Extensive simulations and an application to the German credit dataset demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of our approach.

We study nonlinear filtering with misspecified initial distributions and dynamics, but a correctly specified observation model. Observations are treated as a random process generated by the true model, rather than as fixed realizations, and both the correct filter and the misspecified filter are analyzed under this common observation law. Our main result is a Bayesian total variation balance identity for the expected change in total variation distance under a Bayesian update: a covariance term minus a non-negative remainder. The identity characterizes conditional and averaged update non-expansivity. Combined with prediction contraction, it yields finite-time bounds separating the initialization error from accumulated dynamical discrepancies, while allowing expansive updates. When the averaged updates are non-expansive and a uniform joint prediction–update coefficient is less than one, a persistent dynamical misspecification yields an asymptotic error bound proportional to the one-step discrepancy. When the conditional updates are non-expansive, we characterize an accumulated joint contraction that implies almost-sure and \(L^1\) coalescence of the true and misspecified filters. Finally, we verify update non-expansivity for scalar Gaussian predictive laws under a variance-ordering condition and, separately, derive explicit prediction contraction bounds for truncated kernels and bounded transition functions with elliptically symmetric noise.

Multiverse analysis makes explicit how empirical conclusions depend on alternative, defensible analytical specifications. Standard approaches usually generate the multiverse first and then summarize it through decision tables, specification curves, model weights, or scalar outputs such as estimates and p-values. This stagewise view is useful, but it can hide how inferential uncertainty is arranged across specifications. We propose a distributional-geometric framework in which each admissible specification is represented by a probability distribution on a common target-output space. After defining a suitable distance between these distributions, the induced geometry allows the multiverse of analyses to be studied through local neighbourhoods, diameters, Fréchet barycentres, and dispersion measures. Numerical examples alongside a real case study illustrate how the approach complements existing multiverse summaries by retaining both effect variation and uncertainty variation.

In this work, we consider the identification and control of nonlinear systems with finite action spaces. The unknown dynamics are estimated from finite samples with Koopman operator regression in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, yielding a linear switching predictive model, the switches governed by the value of the control variable. In order to perform control in closed-loop, the learned dynamics are employed in an infinite-horizon optimal control problem with time-varying stage cost, which is solved by means of model predictive control. In a theoretical analysis, we derive learning rates for the Koopman dynamics approximation. We further quantify, under suitable assumptions, the sub-optimality of the model predictive control strategy, both in the case of exact Koopman dynamics, and in the case of learned ones. Numerical simulations on the Duffing oscillator complement our theoretical findings.

Elliptical distributions provide a flexible and widely used extension of multivariate normal distribution. They play a critical role in many statistical procedures when dealing with high-dimensional data. However, goodness-of-fit testing for elliptical distributions remains challenging when the dimension $p$ is comparable to or larger than the sample size $n$. In this work, we propose a new test for high-dimensional elliptical distributions. We establish high-dimensional Gaussian approximation for the test statistic under general correlation structures, allowing the dimension to grow as \(\log p=o(n^{1/14})\) under finite moment conditions. We further develop Gaussian multiplier bootstrap test procedure and prove its theoretical validity. Numerical studies demonstrate stable finite-sample behavior and favorable power against a range of alternatives. Applications to real datasets illustrate practical utility of the proposed test.

Accurate dengue forecasting is crucial for public health planning, but remains challenging because incidence series are often short, noisy, non-stationary, nonlinear, and often affected by long-range temporal dependence. Fractional differencing in Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) helps balance non-stationarity and persistence, but its linear structure limits its ability to capture nonlinear dynamics. Deep neural networks can model nonlinear patterns, but usually require large training samples and do not explicitly encode statistical long memory. Echo State Networks (ESNs), a widely used reservoir computing framework, are attractive in this setting because they retain nonlinear recurrent dynamics while training only a simple readout, making them suitable for data-scarce scenarios. However, standard ESNs lack long-term memory from a time-series perspective. This study proposes a long-memory reservoir computing framework that integrates dedicated long-memory and short-memory ESN reservoirs with a ridge-regression readout. We introduce two variants: Fractional ESN (fESN), which incorporates fractional-differencing dynamics into the reservoir to encode long-range dependence directly, and Wavelet ESN (wESN), which extracts stable low-frequency components through wavelet smoothing before modeling them with a memory-aware reservoir. We establish theoretical guarantees for closed-loop reservoir dynamics, showing that standard ESNs induce short-memory processes under mild conditions, whereas the proposed long-memory reservoirs generate polynomially decaying dependence consistent with statistical long memory. Across multiple dengue datasets and forecasting horizons, fESN and wESN outperform statistical and deep learning baselines. Combining conformal prediction with fESN and wESN provides distribution-free calibrated uncertainty intervals.

Decision support systems (DSS) increasingly run retention what-if analysis on synthetic customer populations, because privacy constraints preclude unrestricted use of real data. Such a system is trustworthy only if the synthetic data lead managers to the same decisions as the real data would; yet prevailing criteria certify distributional similarity, not decision alignment, so a synthetic population can match every marginal distribution while still steering a marketing team toward the wrong campaigns. We close this decision-alignment gap with three contributions: strategy simulation fidelity (SSF), a criterion measuring how often the synthetic population yields the same go/no-go campaign decision as the real population; PolicySynth, a DSS framework whose generator is conditioned on the production churn scorer to align decision-relevant structure; and a three-axis reporting standard of decision alignment, membership-inference resistance, and novel-record rate as the minimum deployment quality gate. On a telecommunications churn corpus and a banking acquisition corpus, PolicySynth attains a mean SSF of 0.923 and 0.960, with seed-to-seed variance roughly ten times tighter than CTGAN on telecommunications and 2.5 times on banking. This stability is the deployable property: go/no-go recommendations shift by at most 1.2 percentage points between monthly retraining cycles, against 11.5 for CTGAN, a reversed recommendation on one campaign in nine. A bootstrap baseline matches PolicySynth on SSF yet copies real records verbatim and fails membership inference, evidence that no single axis suffices. PolicySynth reliably supports directional go/no-go screening; its ROI estimates diverge from real outcomes by 70 to 78% and require the volume correction we document.

High-dimensional change-point analysis is essential in modern statistical inference. However, existing methods are often designed either for specific parameters (e.g., mean or variance) or for particular tasks (e.g., testing or estimation), making them difficult to generalize. Moreover, they typically rely on restrictive distributional assumptions, limiting their robustness to heavy-tailed data. We propose a unified framework for testing, estimating, and inferring multiple change points in high-dimensional data. Our approach leverages a two-sample U-statistic within a moving window, allowing flexible kernel function selection to accommodate structural changes in general parameters such as variance changes or robust statistics. For testing, we develop an L-infinity norm-based statistic with a high-dimensional multiplier bootstrap procedure, achieving minimax-optimal power under sparse alternatives. For estimation, we construct an initial estimator for the change-point number and locations and refine it using the U-statistic Projection Refinement Algorithm (U-PRA), attaining minimax-optimal localization rates. We further derive the asymptotic distribution of refined estimators, enabling valid confidence interval construction. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate the better performance of our method across various settings, including heavy-tailed distributions. Applications to genomic copy number variation data highlight its practical utility. An R package implementing the proposed method, U-PRA, is publicly available at https://github.com/liubin0145/R-codes-UPRA/.

The class of parametric statistical models that can be treated as Riemannian manifolds is considerably larger than the classical Fisher-Rao setting allows, once one works in the space of tempered distributions. A law is represented by a tempered distribution T in S'(R^k), while an instrument - a positive Schwartz kernel, a weak regular inference function, or a weak Stein representation - extracts information from the law without being part of it. Any instrument with full-rank sensitivity and positive-definite variability induces the Godambe information G = S^T V^{-1} S, a Riemannian metric on the parameter space; the Fisher-Rao manifold is recovered exactly when the score is an admissible instrument, and every Godambe metric is dominated by the Fisher metric in the Loewner order whenever the latter exists. Four examples lie outside the Fisher-Rao class for four different reasons: a location model built on the Cantor distribution (an undominated family - no likelihood, no score, and no Fisher information exist at all), the uniform scale model (parameter-dependent support), the shifted exponential model (transform-based inference), and a stratified finite mixture (a provably biased score in a dominated model); a lattice stochastic heat equation driven by alpha-stable noise provides a fifth, dynamical example, whose closed-form weak Godambe information stabilises at a rate governed by the spectral gap of the discrete Laplacian. Quadratic Stein discrepancies induce the same local geometry, and reproducing-kernel constructions generate a hierarchy of geometries. Because there is no canonical instrument, the model carries a family of Godambe metrics; we discuss the inferential, diagnostic, geometric, and computational roles of its members, and show that weak inferential separation (nonformation) appears geometrically as block-diagonality of the Godambe metric.

In this paper, we propose deep learning based NeuroMem-FHP framework for estimating the parameters of the fractional Hawkes process (FHP), a self-exciting point process that captures long-range dependence through a fractional Mittag-Leffler excitation kernel. Two neural architectures, namely a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and a Transformer, are developed to estimate the model parameters $(\mu,\gamma,\alpha,\beta)$ directly from sequences of inter-arrival times without requiring computationally intensive likelihood optimization. Experiments on synthetic data that both neural models significantly outperform the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method, with the Transformer achieving the highest estimation accuracy (MSE = $0.1634$), followed by the LSTM (MSE = $0.1752$), compared to MLE (MSE = $2.8032$). An ablation study further examines the effects of key hyperparameters on model performance. The proposed framework is also on two real-world high-frequency datasets, namely AAPL NBBO transaction data and Montgomery County 911 emergency call records. Using a predictive validation approach, event sequences simulated from the estimated parameters closely reproduce the empirical distribution, tail behavior, and temporal dependence structure of the observed data. These results demonstrate that Transformer-based parameter estimation provides an accurate and efficient alternative to conventional estimation techniques for FHP and offers a promising framework for modeling event-driven systems with long-memory dynamics.

We study the coupled objective J_K^WOR = E_{S ~ PL-WOR_K}[max_{i in S} R_i]: the expected maximum reward of a size-K Plackett-Luce draw without replacement, the law of Gumbel-Top-K / Stochastic Beam Search decoding. This estimand differs from the conventional i.i.d. objective J_K^iid = E[max_{i<=K} R_i] targeted by existing sample-reuse Max@K estimators, and reusing their i.i.d. weights under the coupled sampler is provably biased (a closed-form three-item instance gives E[g_iid] = (4/5) grad J_K^WOR exactly; pass@K under the coupled sampler is the binary-reward special case). Generic joint-score REINFORCE is already unbiased for J_K^WOR; what it lacks is sample reuse. Our contribution is to instantiate standard rank-conditioned Horvitz-Thompson estimation for the J_K^WOR subset total: from one Gumbel-Top-n pool (n>K) and its observed priority threshold we build an estimator that reuses all C(n,K) embedded K-subsets, unbiased with an unbiased exact score-function surrogate gradient, plus a reward-sorted Max-specific dynamic program that collapses the C(n,K)-term subset sum (with K!-cost set probabilities) exactly to a one-dimensional integral. A fixed-Q quadrature evaluation costs O(n log n + nKQ) arithmetic and is numerically, not algebraically, exact; no epsilon-approximation rate is certified. Each nonzero degree-K Horvitz-Thompson term has finite second moment exactly when n >= 2K; under the same assumptions the full surrogate gradient has finite second moment whenever n >= 2K (sharpness there is open). At K=1 the construction recovers classical priority sampling. All quantities require only the values and differentiable computation graphs of the n+1 drawn items' probabilities, so finite structured sequence policies sampled by exact SBS are covered. A certified finite-Q quadrature bound and countably infinite support remain open. Validation code is included as ancillary files.

Seismic swarms are commonly associated with fluid migration and other transient processes, yet their spatial migration remains difficult to quantify using conventional diffusion models. Here we analyze ten persistent earthquake swarms identified within the relocated Southern California earthquake catalogue using a consensus clustering approach. We characterize their migration through the multiscaling spectrum $\varepsilon(q)$ obtained from the temporal evolution of the moments of interevent distances. All analyzed swarms exhibit a common scaling signature: the spectrum is approximately linear for negative moments but departs systematically from a single linear behavior for positive moments, indicating that small and large interevent distances evolve with different effective scaling laws. In contrast, the Landers tectonic sequence displays a high-order saturation of $\varepsilon(q)$, consistent with spatially bounded diffusion. These results reveal that earthquake swarms are characterized by strong anomalous diffusion and suggest that the multiscaling spectrum provides a quantitative fingerprint capable of distinguishing swarm migration from conventional tectonic earthquake sequences.

We introduce new equivalence tests for approximate independence in two-way contingency tables. The critical values are calculated asymptotically. The finite sample performance of the tests is improved by means of the bootstrap. An estimator of boundary points is developed to make the bootstrap based tests statistically efficient and computationally feasible. We compare the performance of the proposed tests for different table sizes by simulation. Then we apply the tests to real data sets. The tests are implemented in R and available online, see [https://github.com/TestingEquivalence/EquivalenceTestIndependenceR].

The U-Net style models have been widely used in many applications. A critical step in these models is to reconstruct the lower-level features using a top-down decoder. This reconstruction requires precise fusion of high-level semantics and low-level details. Existing attention-based fusion methods typically derive attention weights from the top-down decoder features (global) alone or the correlation between the top-down decoder features and the bottom-up encoder features (local), then modulate the encoder features using these weights. In this work, we explore a different paradigm: deriving attention weights from the difference between the two feature streams. To this end, we propose two difference-based gating approaches: Feature-difference gating (FDG), which directly uses the absolute difference between global and local features to generate adaptive gating maps, and Entropy-difference gating (EDG), which measures the representational certainty of each stream via information entropy and uses their signed entropy difference to derive the attention weights. Both methods produce coupled gating maps that simultaneously modulate the global and local features. Experiments on different tasks including medical image segmentation, remote sensing image cloud removal and speech separation showed that both methods outperformed existing attention-based fusion methods, and EDG performed better. The results suggested a new paradigm for multi-scale feature fusion in the U-Net style structures.

Computing distances between probability distributions on non-parametric statistical manifolds is fundamentally intractable. The geodesicequations live in infinite-dimensional function spaces and admit no general closed-form solution. We develop a two-stage framework that produces a computable pseudo-metric on the Pistone–Sempi exponential manifold and apply it to two-sample hypothesis testing. In the first stage, an arbitrary distribution is projected onto a chosen finite-dimensional parametric exponential family via moment-matching. This projection is many-to-one, so the resulting object is a pseudo-metric rather than a true metric. In the second stage, the parametric family is embedded into the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices via the expected outer product of the augmented sufficient statistics vector. The embedding is a smooth diffeomorphism. The induced pullback metric differs from the Fisher–Rao metric by an explicit correction involving third-order joint cumulants of the sufficient statistics; the correction vanishes for the Gaussian family, recovering the Calvo–Oller embedding as a special case. The affine-invariant Riemannian metric on the ambient matrix manifold then provides a closed-form lower bound for the pseudo-metric, computable directly from sample moments. Applied to two-sample testing, the framework produces a test statistic that is affine-invariant and requires no continuous tuning parameters such as a bandwidth. The choice of target exponential family determines which moments are compared. Critical values are obtained by permutation.

A trained molecular property model can be refined at test time by correcting each prediction with the measured labels of the most similar training molecules, a retraining-free procedure we call neighbor fusion; evidential neural networks make it principled by using their aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty to parameterize a Bayesian update. Our main contribution, PG-EVIKAL, learns a property-distance metric to re-rank structurally similar neighbors by their property relevance before fusion, building on EVIKAL (scalar Kalman filter) and GP-EVIKAL (Gaussian process variant handling correlated neighbors). Evaluated on 16 molecular datasets, PG-EVIKAL reduces RMSE relative to the evidential model baseline on 14 of them, with a median reduction of 19.4%, and improves calibration; in sequential-assay scenarios it further incorporates newly measured molecules, refining predictions as they arrive without retraining. This work demonstrates that evidential uncertainty decomposition is not merely a calibration objective but an actionable inference resource that enables test-time refinement of molecular property predictions.

We explain the long-standing puzzle of naïve diversification with a simple, testable condition: equal weighting is minimum-variance optimal when the forecast-error covariance matrix has a uniform eigenstructure. This "Golden Criterion" drives a two-stage adaptive strategy that dynamically blends naive and optimized weights based on the empirical distance from this condition. Applied to U.S. equity premium forecasting, the method delivers consistent out-of-sample gains in forecast accuracy, utility, and Sharpe ratios. Diversity-driven shrinkage dominates at short horizons, while optimized weights regain their edge at longer horizons, offering clear horizon-dependent guidance for portfolio construction.

We study distributed experimental design with multiple candidate experiments, where local sites possess only partial information and transmit design recommendations to a fusion center. Unlike centralized design, in which the experiment that maximizes expected information gain can be selected directly, distributed design requires combining heterogeneous and potentially conflicting local recommendations. Formulating as a multi-class Bayes fusion problem, centralized oracle design is treated as an unknown label and each site is characterized by a local recommendation mechanism. The proposed fusion rule minimizes posterior expected information regret, rather than merely maximizing the number of local votes or the posterior probability (MAP) of the oracle label. This distinction is essential because different incorrect experimental choices may incur different losses in information gain. We show that majority vote is optimal only under restrictive symmetry assumptions and can otherwise be strictly suboptimal. Regret-weighted multi-class Chernoff bounds are derived to identify the pairwise separations governing distributed design performance. Numerical studies identify two operational regimes: MAP is effective when oracle-label accuracy and information regret are aligned, while regret-weighted Bayes fusion reduces information loss when the most probable oracle label is not the lowest-regret decision.

This paper develops a model-free reinforcement learning framework for continuous–time extended mean field control problems, where both the dynamics and reward may depend on the joint distribution of states and controls. We adopt deterministic feedback policies, under which the state–action distribution is induced directly as a push–forward of the state law. This avoids optimization over stochastic kernels and bypasses key limitations of existing approaches in extended mean field settings. We first establish a model–free sensitivity formula for parameterized McKean–Vlasov dynamics and use it to derive a deterministic policy gradient formula expressed through an advantage–rate function on the Wasserstein space. We then refine this formula by introducing local value and advantage–rate representations that depend on the state, action, and joint state–action distribution, yielding a policy gradient that includes both action derivatives and measure–derivative terms with respect to the control distribution. These characterizations lead to a martingale–based learning principle and motivate a continuous–time deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm combining particle approximations, measure–dependent neural networks, temporal–difference learning, and exploration in either action or parameter space. Numerical experiments on stochastic Cucker–Smale consensus control and optimal liquidation with trade crowding demonstrate the efficiency, stability, and robustness of the proposed method, including problems with explicit dependence on the control distribution.

Algorithmic fairness audits can detect disparities, but they do not determine when those disparities warrant intervention. Deployment decisions also depend on the reliability of the evidence, subgroup support, and deployment context. Existing fairness methods quantify disparities and uncertainty, yet provide limited guidance for translating accumulated evidence into action. We introduce Statistical Actionability, a statistical construct that recasts fairness deployment as an evidence-based decision problem. The framework integrates fairness evidence regarding disparity magnitude, statistical reliability, subgroup adequacy, and deployment context, and maps the resulting evidence state to one of four recommendations: mitigate, collect more data, monitor, or take no immediate action. In controlled simulations, Statistical Actionability achieved the lowest decision cost among representative baselines, reducing average decision cost by 19.2% relative to gap-based intervention while simultaneously reducing both false alarms and missed bias. A calibrated deployment rule generalized across heterogeneous statistical environments, remaining within 2% of the target oracle in four of five transportability regimes. Analyses of benchmark fairness audits further demonstrated that the framework distinguished audits with similar observed fairness gaps but different levels of uncertainty and subgroup support, yielding interpretable deployment recommendations. Statistical Actionability therefore establishes a statistical decision layer between fairness evaluation and deployment intervention, enabling responsible AI systems to act on accumulated evidence rather than disparity magnitude alone.

Thousands of R packages hold statistical methods with no native Python equivalent. Runtime bridges require an R installation; hand-written ports do not scale. Translation fails silently where the languages diverge, as in transform normalization, integer width, and argument evaluation. We present r2py, a framework that converts an R package into a native Python library using orchestrated language-model agents under human supervision, with correctness established by numerical comparison against the original at declared tolerances. The compiled code is retained unmodified, so any divergence lies in the translation. Seven phases decompose the work for independent invocations: structural analysis fixes conversion order, every base-R construct's rendering is settled in reviewable guides before code generation, and four verification methods each expose defects their predecessors miss. Packages reaching compiled code through .Call() add a five-phase prologue reconstructing the R C API they use. Conversions of KernSmooth and rpart reproduce R across 518 and 846 tests.

Point-adjustment (PA), for years the default scoring protocol in time-series anomaly detection (TSAD), was shown by Kim et al. (2022) to award near-perfect F1 to random anomaly scores. The field adopted a suite of replacement metrics (PA%K, range-based precision/recall, affiliation precision/recall, and Volume-Under-the-Surface, VUS, ROC/PR). We ask, independently and adversarially, whether these resist no-skill detectors on real benchmarks, and find the answer turns entirely on one overlooked variable: N, the number of random attempts an adversary reports the best of. Under a single honest run (N=1), not one replacement metric is gameable on any of six benchmarks (UCR, SMD, SMAP, MSL, NAB, PSM): a random detector reaches 90% of the best real detector's score on at most 11% of series for affiliation-F1, 5% for the ROC family, and 2% for the PR-based metrics and PA%K. But under best-of-N reporting, the seed-shopping endemic to ML, the metrics split sharply. affiliation-F1 and every ROC-based metric inflate steeply, affiliation crossing gameable (25% of series) by N=3 and reaching 0.98 at the full pool (N=41), the ROC family crossing by N=9-11; the PR-based metrics and PA%K stay near-flat at every N, floored near the anomaly prevalence (the lone exception is NAB at large N). A paired test finds VUS-ROC inflated on 131 series where its sibling VUS-PR is not, and never the reverse. The ROC-vs-PR split follows from the order-statistic behaviour of AUC under extreme class imbalance (a random PR-AUC is floored at prevalence); affiliation inflates by a second route, its extreme single-run leniency (already fragile at N=1). We release a pip-installable stress-test harness, and recommend reporting single-run scores or disclosing N and preferring PR-based metrics, which resist best-of-N inflation on nearly every benchmark.