Papers

Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for spatial prediction, but their computational cost limits applicability to large-scale data with large sample size $n$. Predictive processes (PPs), a popular low-rank approximation, mitigate this burden by projecting the original process onto a reduced set of $m\ll n$ inducing points. However, existing theory requires $m$ to grow with $n$, creating a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. We address this challenge by introducing an ensemble of PPs based on spatial partitioning, and propose a novel partitioning and patching scheme with desirable properties. By generalizing the convergence results of PPs, it becomes possible to explicitly balance scalability and accuracy: increasing the number of ensemble components slows down the convergence but substantially improves computational efficiency. We further show theoretically that, despite the limited approximation accuracy of PPs with fixed, small $m$, they provide predictions that are more robust to training data contamination. Motivated by these findings, we finally introduce a multi-resolution ensemble that combines ensembles over possibly overlapping coarse to fine partitions. Unlike previous multi-resolution approaches, our method targets predictive robustness rather than accurate covariance approximation. Simulations and large-scale geostatistical applications demonstrate that our approach delivers accurate, robust predictions while being computationally efficient, thereby providing a practical and broadly applicable solution for spatial prediction.

Five-year cancer survival rates are widely reported and often interpreted to mean that early detection saves lives, that a late fatal diagnosis would have been prevented by earlier detection, and that increasing survival over time proves better treatment. This expository article explains why such inferences are not supported by survival statistics alone. A simple Markov model of tumor progression, calibrated to patterns like those in SEER data, shows that high survival after early diagnosis, large gaps between early and late stage, and improving survival can all appear even when treatment is ineffective and screening does not reduce mortality. The discussion ties these points to the clinical literature and argues that randomized trials and mortality outcomes are needed to support screening and treatment claims; five-year survival alone provides little actionable evidence and is easily misread.

Federated learning enables collaborative training without sharing raw data, but struggles under client heterogeneity and streaming distribution shifts, where drift and novel data can impair convergence and cause forgetting. We propose a federated associative-memory framework that learns shared archetypes in heterogeneous, continual settings, where client data are independent but not necessarily balanced. Each client encodes its experience as a low-rank Hebbian operator, sent to a central server for aggregation and factorization into global archetypes. This approach preserves privacy, avoids centralized replay buffers, and is robust to small, noisy, or evolving datasets. We cast aggregation as a low-rank-plus-noise spectral inference problem, deriving theoretical thresholds for detectability and retrieval robustness. An entropy-based controller balances stability and plasticity in streaming regimes. Experiments with heterogeneous clients, drift, and novelty show improved global archetype reconstruction and associative retrieval, supporting the spectral view of federated consolidation.

Autocorrelation is a common property of time-series, where each observation is dependent on its predecessors. In deep time-series forecasting, it raises two central challenges: (1) designing backbone architectures to model autocorrelation in history sequences, and (2) devising loss functions to model autocorrelation in label sequences. Recent studies have made strides in tackling these challenges, but a systematic survey examining both aspects remains lacking. To bridge this gap, this paper reviews deep time-series forecasting from an autocorrelation modeling perspective, offering two contributions beyond existing surveys. First, it introduces a taxonomy that jointly covers both backbone architectures and loss functions, whereas prior surveys provide limited coverage of the latter. Second, it analyzes the motivations and insights underlying the surveyed literature from a unified autocorrelation perspective, providing a holistic overview of the field's evolution. Additional resources and details are available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Awesome-TSF-Papers.

Loss functions play a central role in supervised classification. Cross-entropy (CE) is widely used, whereas the mean absolute error (MAE) loss can offer robustness but is difficult to optimize. Interpolating between the CE and MAE losses, generalized cross-entropy (GCE) has recently been introduced to provide a trade-off between optimization difficulty and robustness. Existing formulations of GCE result in a non-convex optimization over classification margins that is prone to underfitting, leading to poor performances with complex datasets. In this paper, we propose a minimax formulation of generalized cross-entropy (MGCE) that results in a convex optimization over classification margins. Moreover, we show that MGCEs can provide an upper bound on the classification error. The proposed bilevel convex optimization can be efficiently implemented using stochastic gradient computed via implicit differentiation. Using benchmark datasets, we show that MGCE achieves strong accuracy, faster convergence, and better calibration, especially in the presence of label noise.

A major limitation of clustering approaches is their lack of explainability: methods rarely provide insight into which features drive the grouping of similar observations. To address this limitation, we propose an ensemble-based clustering framework that integrates bagging and feature dropout to generate feature importance scores, in analogy with feature importance mechanisms in supervised random forests. By leveraging multiple bootstrap resampling schemes and aggregating the resulting partitions, the method improves stability and robustness of the cluster definition, particularly in small-sample or noisy settings. Feature importance is assessed through an information-theoretic approach: at each step, the mutual information between each feature and the estimated cluster labels is computed and weighted by a measure of clustering validity to emphasize well-formed partitions, before being aggregated into a final score. The method outputs both a consensus partition and a corresponding measure of feature importance, enabling a unified interpretation of clustering structure and variable relevance. Its effectiveness is demonstrated on multiple simulated and real-world datasets.

Population-based learning paradigms, including evolutionary strategies, Population-Based Training (PBT), and recent model-merging methods, combine fast within-model optimisation with slower population-level adaptation. Despite their empirical success, a general mathematical description of the resulting collective training dynamics remains incomplete. We introduce a theoretical framework for neural network training based on two-time-scale population dynamics. We model a population of neural networks as an interacting agent system in which network parameters evolve through fast noisy gradient updates of SGD/Langevin type, while hyperparameters evolve through slower selection–mutation dynamics. We prove the large-population limit for the joint distribution of parameters and hyperparameters and, under strong time-scale separation, derive a selection–mutation equation for the hyperparameter density. For each fixed hyperparameter, the fast parameter dynamics relaxes to a Boltzmann–Gibbs measure, inducing an effective fitness for the slow evolution. The averaged dynamics connects population-based learning with bilevel optimisation and classical replicator–mutator models, yields conditions under which the population mean moves toward the fittest hyperparameter, and clarifies the role of noise and diversity in balancing optimisation and exploration. Numerical experiments illustrate both the large-population regime and the reduced two-time-scale dynamics, and indicate that access to the effective fitness, either in closed form or through population-level estimation, can improve population-level updates.

We use the law of total variance to generate multiple expansions for the posterior predictive variance. These expansions are sums of terms involving conditional expectations and conditional variances and provide a quantification of the sources of predictive uncertainty. Since the posterior predictive variance is fixed given the model, it represents a constant quantity that is conserved over these expansions. The terms in the expansions can be assessed in absolute or relative sense to understand the main contributors to the length of prediction intervals. We quantify the term-wise uncertainty across expansions varying in the number of terms and the order of conditionates. In particular, given that a specific term in one expansion is small or zero, we identify the other terms in other expansions that must also be small or zero. We illustrate this approach to predictive model assessment in several well-known models.

Traditional Functional Principal Component Analysis typically focuses on densely observed univariate functional data, yet many applications, particularly in longitudinal studies, involve multivariate functional data observed sparsely and irregularly across subjects. A common approach for extracting multivariate functional principal components in such settings relies on an eigen decomposition of univariate functional principal component scores to capture cross-component correlations. We propose a new approach for the estimation of multivariate functional principal components by improving the univariate eigenanalysis through maximum likelihood estimation combined with a modified Gram-Schmidt orthonormalization. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated against two established methods, and its practical utility is demonstrated through an application to longitudinal cognitive biomarker data from an Alzheimer's disease study and a collection of data on dairy milk yield and milk compositions from research dairy farms in Ireland.

Efficient and scalable non-parametric or semi-parametric regression analysis and density estimation are of crucial importance to the fields of statistics and machine learning. However, available methods are limited in their ability to handle large-scale data. We address this issue by developing a novel coreset construction for multivariate conditional transformation models (MCTMs) to enhance their scalability and training efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first coresets for semi-parametric distributional models. Our approach yields substantial data reduction via importance sampling. It ensures with high probability that the log-likelihood remains within multiplicative error bounds of $(1\pm\varepsilon)$ and thereby maintains statistical model accuracy. Compared to conventional full-parametric models, where coresets have been incorporated before, our semi-parametric approach exhibits enhanced adaptability, particularly in scenarios where complex distributions and non-linear relationships are present, but not fully understood. To address numerical problems associated with normalizing logarithmic terms, we follow a geometric approximation based on the convex hull of input data. This ensures feasible, stable, and accurate inference in scenarios involving large amounts of data. Numerical experiments demonstrate substantially improved computational efficiency when handling large and complex datasets, thus laying the foundation for a broad range of applications within the statistics and machine learning communities.

Space-filling experimental designs are widely used in engineering computer experiments, where only a limited number of expensive model evaluations can be afforded. Distance-based designs such as Maximin or Minimax ensure global space-filling, while Latin hypercube sampling enforces uniform one-dimensional projections, yet neither guarantees uniformity in lowdimensional subspaces. Maximum Projection (MaxPro) designs were introduced to improve uniformity in low-dimensional subspaces, yet their original formulation relies on the Euclidean distance and may induce systematic density distortions in bounded domains. We demonstrate that the standard MaxPro criterion leads to statistically non-uniform sampling, resulting in undersampling of corner regions and biased Monte Carlo estimates. To remedy this issue, we introduce a periodic variant of the criterion, termed Uniform Maximum Projection (uMaxPro), in which the Euclidean metric is replaced by a periodic distance based on the minimum image convention. The proposed uMaxPro designs preserve the projection-aware structure of MaxPro while achieving statistical uniformity of the design-generation mechanism. Numerical experiments show unbiased Monte Carlo integration with reduced variance, excellent subspace projection performance, and competitive discrepancy properties. The methodology is further validated on benchmark engineering problems, including a meso-scale finite element model of concrete, demonstrating improved accuracy in surrogate modeling and probabilistic estimation. The resulting criterion provides a simple and computationally efficient modification of MaxPro that enhances its robustness for nonadaptive computer experiments. The construction algorithm, open-source implementation, and reproducible optimized designs are provided to facilitate practical adoption of the method.

Tabulated content is omnipresent in scientific literature. This work presents the R package *tableParser*, designed to extract and postprocess tables from NISO-JATS-encoded XML, HTML, DOCX, and, with limitations, PDF documents. *tableParser* focuses on extracting and analyzing statistical test results reported in scientific publications. It can be used for large-scale analysis of effect sizes, reporting practices, or summarization of results, as well as for checking completeness and consistency of standard test results in unpublished documents. Documents can be processed in three decoding levels. *table2matrix()* compiles all tables into a list of character matrices with captions and footnotes. *table2text()* collapses the matrix contents into human-readable text, mimicking a screen reader. Optionally, many common codings that are reported within the table's caption and footnote can be used to decode and expand the table's content. The collapsed and decoded table content can be further processed match an ideal input for the extraction of statistical standard results with the *standardStats()* function from the *JATSdecoder* package. The output of *table2stats()* is a data frame with all detected standard results as columns and, if calculation is possible, a recalculated p-value. If desired, an automated consistency check of the reported and the coded p-values with the recalculated p-value can be initiated. *tableParser* works best on barrier-free HTML tables encoded in NISO-JATS, where captions and footnotes are clearly identifiable. By guessing the tables captions and footnotes conservatively, the processing of tables within HTML and DOCX documents is comparably robust. Technically, tables in PDFs often fail to be correctly extracted, with captions and footnotes not detectable. Therefore, a decoding of codes is not possible, which lowers *tableParser*'s decoding accuracy on PDFs.

Beckmann's problem in optimal transport minimizes the total squared flux in a continuous transport problem from a source to a target distribution. In this article, the regularity theory for solutions to Beckmann's problem in optimal transport is developed utilizing an unconstrained Lagrangian formulation and solving the variational first order optimality conditions. It turns out that the Lagrangian multiplier that enforces Beckmann's divergence constraint fulfills a Poisson equation and the flux vector field is obtained as the potential's gradient. Utilizing Schauder estimates from elliptic regularity theory, the exact Hölder regularity of the potential, the flux and the flow generating is derived on the basis of Hölder regularity of source and target densities on a bounded, regular domain. If the target distribution depends on parameters, as is the case in conditional (“promptable”) generative learning, we provide sufficient conditions for separate and joint Hölder continuity of the resulting vector field in the parameter and the data dimension. Following a recent result by Belomnestny et al., one can thus approximate such vector fields with deep ReQu neural networks in C^(k,alpha)-Hölder norm. We also show that this approach generalizes to other probability paths, like Fisher-Rao gradient flows.

In this paper, we propose an invariant quantile regression (IQR) framework specifically designed for multi-environment datasets, which captures the invariance across different environments. This framework is closely related to transfer learning, causal inference, and fair machine learning, and is motivated by scenarios in which the conditional probability of the response given covariates varies, while certain key variables remain invariant. This perspective differs notably from previous works that restrict attention to the conditional mean, which is often insufficient to capture the full causal relationships between covariates and the response in heterogeneous environments. In contrast, quantile-based invariance naturally accommodates heterogeneity, and aligns more closely with structural causal models, in which variables invariant across environments at one or multiple quantile levels directly indicate potential and stable causal variables. Moreover, we show that IQR may yield a larger set of endogenous variables compared to the conditional mean framework, which in turn promotes more effective exclusion of spurious (non-causal) variables. To achieve this, we introduce a Kernel-Smoothed Invariant Quantile Regression (KS-IQR) estimator, which leverages the underlying invariance structure and heterogeneity among environments, ensuring stable estimation across multiple environments. We establish the causal discovery properties of our method, demonstrate its ability to overcome the “curse of endogeneity”, and derive an $\ell_2$ error bound for our estimator, all in a non-asymptotic framework. We apply our method to real data for causal discovery and obtain biologically meaningful relationships, recovering known signaling pathways and revealing additional quantile-specific effects.

Finite-context models (FCMs) are widely used for compressing symbolic sequences such as DNA, where predictive performance depends critically on the context length k and smoothing parameter {\alpha}. In practice, these hyperparameters are typically selected through exhaustive search, which is computationally expensive and scales poorly with model complexity. This paper proposes a statistically grounded two-step sequential approach for efficient hyperparameter selection in FCMs. The key idea is to decompose the joint optimization problem into two independent stages. First, the context length k is estimated using categorical serial dependence measures, including Cramér's {\nu}, Cohen's ąppa} and partial mutual information (pami). Second, the smoothing parameter {\alpha} is estimated via maximum likelihood conditional on the selected context length k. Simulation experiments were conducted on synthetic symbolic sequences generated by FCMs across multiple (k, {\alpha}) configurations, considering a four-letter alphabet and different sample sizes. Results show that the dependence measures are substantially more sensitive to variations in k than in {\alpha}, supporting the sequential estimation strategy. As expected, the accuracy of the hyperparameter estimation improves with increasing sample size. Furthermore, the proposed method achieves compression performance comparable to exhaustive grid search in terms of average bitrate (bits per symbol), while substantially reducing computational cost. Overall, the results on simulated data show that the proposed sequential approach is a practical and computationally efficient alternative to exhaustive hyperparameter tuning in FCMs.

For many years it was routine to use equal model prior probabilities in Bayesian model uncertainty analysis. At least twenty years ago it became clear that this was problematic, leading to support of much too large models in the increasingly huge model spaces being considered in genomics and other fields. A popular replacement was to adopt a suggestion of Harold Jeffreys for the variable selection problem in which a total of $k$ possible variables are being considered for inclusion in the model: give the collection of all models containing $d$ variables ($d = 0, . . . , k$) prior probability $1/(k + 1)$ and then divide this prior probability equally among the models in the collection. Many other choices of model prior probabilities that impose severe parsimony have also been introduced. We begin by reviewing the problems with using equal model prior probabilities and then discuss some serious problems with the Jeffreys choice. Finally, we introduce and study a number of objective alternative choices of model prior probabilities, from both numerical and theoretical perspectives.

Estimating covariance matrices is fundamental to a wide range of statistical applications. This paper studies minimax and adaptive estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices under $\rho$-zero-concentrated differential privacy ($\rho$-zCDP) over three nested classes: the pointwise-decay class $\mathcal{H}_\alpha$, the row-tail class $\mathcal{G}_\alpha$, and the separated-block class $\mathcal{F}_\alpha$. We consider both squared operator norm loss and normalized squared Frobenius norm loss. For $\mathcal{H}_\alpha$ and $\mathcal{G}_\alpha$, we develop center–outer dyadic estimators tailored to the refined geometry of the two classes, while for $\mathcal{F}_\alpha$, we develop a blockwise tridiagonal estimator. The resulting minimax-optimal rates reveal a nontrivial interplay among the smoothness $\alpha$, the loss, the geometry of the covariance class, and the privacy constraint. In contrast to the non-private setting, privacy distinguishes covariance classes that share the same leading non-private rate and induces a polynomial dependence on the ambient dimension. We further develop procedures that adapt to the unknown decay parameter over all three covariance classes under both losses, at the cost of at most polylogarithmic factors. To establish minimax lower bounds, we develop a novel differentially private van Trees inequality that connects Fisher information with the $\rho$-zCDP constraint and may be useful for other private estimation problems. We also construct carefully designed prior distributions to obtain matching minimax lower bounds.

We study model-order selection and component-mean estimation for multidimensional Gaussian mixture models with a known common covariance matrix. Using empirical characteristic-function measurements, we construct Fourier covariance matrices whose population counterparts have rank equal to the number of mixture components. We establish a minimax lower bound showing that distinguishing a separated $k$-component mixture from the class of $(k-1)$-component mixtures requires $\Omega(\Delta^{-(4k-4)})$ samples. We then develop an oracle spectral-thresholding estimator with a sufficient sample size of order $\Delta^{-(8k-8)}$ for fixed $k$, together with a practical singular-value-ratio estimator. Given the model order, we estimate the component means by score-initialized gradient descent on a MUSIC-type projection objective. Under an explicit sample-size condition, a qualifying sample initialization lies in a certified attraction region with high probability, after which the iterates converge linearly. For fixed positive component separation, the resulting mean estimates achieve the parametric rate $\mathcal{O}_p(n^{-1/2})$. Numerical experiments demonstrate competitive accuracy and lower computational cost than expectation-maximization across a range of multidimensional settings.

Stochastic approximation (SA) is a fundamental iterative framework with broad applications in reinforcement learning and optimization. Classical analyses typically rely on martingale difference or Markov noise with bounded second moments, but many practical settings, including finance and communications, frequently encounter heavy-tailed and long-range dependent (LRD) noise. In this work, we study SA for finding the root of a strongly monotone operator under these non-classical noise models. We establish the first finite-time moment bounds in both settings, providing explicit convergence rates that quantify the impact of heavy tails and temporal dependence. Our analysis employs a noise-averaging argument that regularizes the impact of noise without modifying the iteration. Finally, we apply our general framework to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and gradient play, and corroborate our finite-time analysis through numerical experiments.

This paper develops a logistic-aided Huber (LAH) M-estimator for robust GNSS positioning under long-tailed, multipath-affected measurement errors. The key idea is to leverage a logistic measurement error assumption and establish a one-to-one approximation between the logistic-based loglikelihood (i.e., quasi-log-cosh) and the Huber kernel by matching their score functions. This yields closed-form tuning rules for the scale and threshold parameters in the Huber estimator, grounded on logistic error statistical properties. We further show that the proposed LAH estimator preserves comparable efficiency and robustness to the connected logistic-based least quasi-log-cosh (LQLC) estimator. Both Monte Carlo simulations with long-tailed measurement errors and a one-hour urban GNSS dataset confirm that the proposed logistic-statistics-based tuning improves positioning accuracy and precision while suppressing large error spikes. Specifically, LAH reduces the 2D RMSE/STD by 28.03%/38.83% versus conventional 95%-efficiency-based Huber tuning in simulation, and reduces the overall 3D RMSE/STD by 4.85%/16.68% in real-world experiments while suppressing large positioning error spikes by up to 51%.

This work introduces a new approximate proximal sampler that operates solely with zeroth-order information of the potential function. Prior theoretical analyses have revealed that proximal sampling corresponds to alternating forward and backward iterations of the heat flow. The backward step was originally implemented by rejection sampling, whereas we directly simulate the dynamics. Unlike diffusion-based sampling methods that estimate scores via learned models or by invoking auxiliary samplers, our method treats the intermediate particle distribution as a Gaussian mixture, thereby yielding a Monte Carlo score estimator from directly samplable distributions. Theoretically, when the score estimation error is sufficiently controlled, our method inherits the exponential convergence of proximal sampling under isoperimetric conditions on the target distribution. In practice, the algorithm avoids rejection sampling, permits flexible step sizes, and runs with a deterministic runtime budget. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our approach converges rapidly to the target distribution, driven by interactions among multiple particles and by exploiting parallel computation.

Learned priors based on deep generative models offer data-driven regularization for seismic inversion, but training them requires a dataset of representative subsurface models – a resource that is inherently scarce in geoscience applications. Since the training objective of most generative models can be cast as maximum likelihood on a finite dataset, any such model risks converging to the empirical distribution – effectively memorizing the training examples rather than learning the underlying geological distribution. We show that the posterior under such a memorized prior reduces to a reweighted empirical distribution – i.e., a likelihood-weighted lookup among the stored training examples. For diffusion models specifically, memorization yields a Gaussian mixture prior in closed form, and linearizing the forward operator around each training example gives a Gaussian mixture posterior whose components have widths and shifts governed by the local Jacobian. We validate these predictions on a stylized inverse problem and demonstrate the consequences of memorization through diffusion posterior sampling for full waveform inversion.

Many biological processes exhibit oscillatory behavior. Among these, glycolytic oscillations have been extensively studied due to their well-characterized biochemical reaction networks. However, the complexity of these networks necessitates low-dimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE) models to identify core mechanisms and perform stability analysis. While previous studies proposed reduced ODE models, these were typically introduced from deterministic descriptions rather than the underlying stochastic dynamics, which more accurately represent discrete reaction events occurring at random times. In this paper, we develop a rigorous probabilistic framework for deriving a reduced Othmer-Aldridge model of the glycolytic pathway from its stochastic formulation. The full system is modeled as a multiscale continuous-time Markov chain with different time and abundance scales. Under an appropriate scaling regime and specific structural conditions, we prove that the dynamics of the slow components are approximated by a two-dimensional ODE. The proof is technically involved due to the network's complexity and strong coupling between its components. We further consider the problem of parameter estimation when observations are limited to the slow species: fructose-6-phosphate and ADP. The reduced system yields a tractable loss function depending solely on these variables. We prove that the resulting estimators are statistically consistent when the data originate from the full stochastic reaction network. Together, these results provide a mathematically rigorous framework linking stochastic biochemical reaction networks, reduced deterministic dynamics, and statistically reliable parameter estimation.

Randomized saturation designs are two-stage experiments: they first randomly assign treatment probabilities over the clusters and then randomly assign the treatment to the units within the clusters. The existing literature on randomized saturation designs focuses on estimating within-cluster spillover effects by assuming away between-cluster spillover effects. However, the units may interact across clusters in many practical randomized saturation designs. A leading example is that some units are geographically close to each other, so spillover effects arise across clusters. Based on the potential outcomes framework, we formulate the causal inference problem of estimating within-cluster and between-cluster spillover effects in randomized saturation designs. We clarify the causal estimands and establish the statistical theory for estimation and inference. We also apply our method to analyze a recent randomized saturation design of cash transfer on household expenditure in Kenya.

Accurately predicting hospital readmission risks using electronic health records (EHRs) is critical for effective patient management and healthcare resource allocation. Patient populations in health systems are highly heterogeneous across different primary diagnoses, necessitating tailored yet interpretable prediction models. We propose a hierarchical modeling framework incorporating hierarchical nested re-parameterization and structured regularization methods, which we call hierNest. Specifically, our approach leverages the inherent hierarchical structure present in primary diagnoses and groupings of these diagnoses into major diagnostic categories. Our methodology facilitates information borrowing across related patient subgroups and preserves interpretability at different hierarchical levels. Simulation studies demonstrate superior predictive accuracy of the proposed method, particularly with small subgroup sample sizes and varying degrees of hierarchical effects. We apply our methods to a large EHR dataset comprising Medicare patients.

We develop horizon-aware anytime-valid tests and confidence sequences for bounded means under a strict deadline $N$. Using the betting/e-process framework, we cast horizon-aware betting as a finite-horizon optimal control problem with state space $(t, \log W_t)$, where $t$ is the time and $W_t$ is the test martingale value. We first show that in certain interior regions of the state space, policies that deviate significantly from Kelly betting are provably suboptimal, while Kelly betting reaches the threshold with high probability. We then identify sufficient conditions showing that outside this region, more aggressive betting than Kelly can be better if the bettor is behind schedule, and less aggressive can be better if the bettor is ahead. Taken together these results suggest a simple phase diagram in the $(t, \log W_t)$ plane, delineating regions where Kelly, fractional Kelly, and aggressive betting may be preferable. Guided by this phase diagram, we introduce a Deep Reinforcement Learning approach based on a universal Deep Q-Network (DQN) agent that learns a single policy from synthetic experience and maps simple statistics of past observations to bets across horizons and null values. In limited-horizon experiments, the learned DQN policy yields state-of-the-art results.

This study examined how moral disengagement influences Filipino college students' intention to use ChatGPT in academic writing. The model tested five mechanisms: moral justification, euphemistic labeling, displacement of responsibility, minimizing consequences, and attribution of blame. These mechanisms were analyzed as predictors of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control, which then predicted behavioral intention. A total of 418 students with ChatGPT experience participated. The results showed that several moral disengagement mechanisms influenced students' attitudes and sense of control. Among the predictors, attribution of blame had the strongest influence, while attitudes had the highest impact on behavioral intention. The model explained more than half of the variation in intention. These results suggest that students often rely on institutional gaps and peer behavior to justify AI use. Many believe it is acceptable to use ChatGPT for learning or when rules are unclear. This shows a need for clear academic integrity policies, ethical guidance, and classroom support. The study also recognizes that intention-based models may not fully explain student behavior. Emotional factors, peer influence, and convenience can also affect decisions. The results provide useful insights for schools that aim to support responsible and informed AI use in higher education.

This papers presents a generalization of the Weitzman overlapping coefficient, originally defined for two probability density functions, to a setting involving k independent distributions, denoted by Delta. To estimate this generalized coefficient, we develop nonparametric methods based on kernel density estimation using k independent random samples (k>=2). Given the analytical complexity of directly deriving Delta using kernel estimators, a novel estimation strategy is proposed. It reformulates Delta as the expected value of a suitably defined function, which is then estimated via the method of moments and the resulting expressions are combined with kernel density estimators to construct the proposed estimators. This method yields multiple new estimators for the generalized Weitzman coefficient. Their performance is evaluated and compared through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. The results demonstrate that the proposed estimators are both effective and practically applicable, providing flexible tools for measuring overlap among multiple distributions.

Shuffled regression concerns settings in which covariates and responses are observed without their correct pairing. In dependent-data problems, a second form of missing correspondence can arise when responses are also detached from the latent temporal, spatial, or geometric domain that induces their dependence structure. We study regression under this joint loss of correspondence and, to our knowledge, provide the first systematic treatment of this setting. Specifically, we consider a doubly-unlinked regression model in which both the covariate-response link and the response-domain link are unknown, represented by two latent permutation matrices, while dependence is induced by an unobserved stochastic process. This framework unifies shuffled regression and latent-domain permutation models within a common dependent-data setting. We characterize signal-to-noise regimes governing recovery of the regression parameter and the latent permutations, and show that consistent estimation of the regression coefficient can be achieved under strictly weaker conditions than exact permutation recovery. To address the combinatorial difficulty of inference, we develop REPAIR, a variational Bayes method based on a block-structured permutation model that captures localized scrambling while substantially reducing computational complexity. Simulations and an applied example illustrate the empirical behavior of REPAIR and support the theoretical results.

Multiple randomization designs (MRDs) are a class of experimental designs used to handle interference in two-sided marketplaces. We investigate regression adjustment strategies for estimating total, spillover, and direct effects in MRDs. We derive minimum asymptotic variance estimators among a broad class of linearly adjusted estimators, without assuming a linear model on the potential outcomes. Surprisingly, the optimal regression adjustments are estimable from data and are generally different from regression adjustments in classical randomized experiments. For example, one such optimal estimator for the direct effect corresponds to a weighted regression with interacted two-way fixed effects. We establish model-robustness properties, central limit theorems, and inferential methods for our estimators, relying on improved theoretical results for MRD experiments. Our results provide the analog of classical regression adjustments for marketplace experiments. Numerical simulations demonstrate a considerable increase in efficiency over simpler approaches, enabling better inference when running MRDs.