Papers

The Shannon entropy is a fundamental measure for quantifying diversity and model complexity in fields such as information theory, ecology, and genetics. However, many existing studies assume that the number of species is known, an assumption that is often unrealistic in practice. In recent years, efforts have been made to relax this restriction. Motivated by these developments, this study proposes an entropy estimation method based on the Pitman–Yor process, a representative approach in Bayesian nonparametrics. By approximating the true distribution as an infinite-dimensional process, the proposed method enables stable estimation even when the number of observed species is smaller than the true number of species. This approach provides a principled way to deal with the uncertainty in species diversity and enhances the reliability and robustness of entropy-based diversity assessment. In addition, we investigate the convergence property of the Shannon entropy for regularly varying distributions and use this result to establish the consistency of the proposed estimator. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method through numerical experiments.

Flow matching (FM) is increasingly used in scientific domains for time series generation and forecasting, where data often arise from underlying dynamical systems. However, it is not well-understood whether it learns transferable dynamical structure or simply performs an effective ”trajectory replay”. We study this question by deriving the optimal velocity field targeted by the empirical FM objective on sequential data. For the Gaussian conditional paths commonly used in practice, we show that the resulting sampler is an ODE whose dynamics describe a nonparametric, memory-augmented continuous-time dynamical system. The driving velocity field admits a closed-form expression as a weighted mixture of instantaneous velocities determined by observed transitions. This characterization provides an interpretable view of neural FM models as parametric estimation of an underlying nonparametric target and naturally leads to FreeFM: a closed-form, training-free realization of this target. FreeFM provides a transparent reference for studying sequential FM while yielding effective probabilistic forecasts directly from historical transitions.

Constraint-based causal discovery methods require a large number of conditional independence (CI) tests, which severely limits their practical applicability due to high computational complexity. Therefore, it is crucial to design an algorithm that accelerates each individual test. To this end, we propose the Flow Matching-based Conditional Independence Test (FMCIT). The proposed test leverages the high computational efficiency of flow matching and requires the model to be trained only once throughout the entire causal discovery procedure, substantially accelerating causal discovery. According to numerical experiments, FMCIT effectively controls type-I error and maintains high testing power under the alternative hypothesis, even in the presence of high-dimensional conditioning sets. In addition, we further integrate FMCIT into a two-stage guided PC skeleton learning framework, termed GPC-FMCIT, which combines fast screening with guided, budgeted refinement using FMCIT. This design yields explicit bounds on the number of CI queries while maintaining high statistical power. Experiments on synthetic and real-world causal discovery tasks demonstrate favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-offs over existing CI testing methods and PC variants.

In this paper, we study Interaction-Grounded Learning (IGL) [Xie et al., 2021], a paradigm designed for realistic scenarios where the learner receives indirect feedback generated by an unknown mechanism, rather than explicit numerical rewards. While prior work on IGL provides efficient algorithms with provable guarantees, those results are confined to single-step settings, restricting their applicability to modern sequential decision-making systems such as multi-turn Large Language Model (LLM) deployments. To bridge this gap, we propose a computationally efficient algorithm that achieves a sublinear regret guarantee for contextual episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with personalized feedback. Technically, we extend the reward-estimator construction of Zhang et al. [2024a] from the single-step to the multi-step setting, addressing the unique challenges of decoding latent rewards under MDPs. Building on this estimator, we design an Inverse-Gap-Weighting (IGW) algorithm for policy optimization. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in learning personalized objectives from multi-turn interactions through experiments on both a synthetic episodic MDP and a real-world user booking dataset.

Understanding simplicity biases in deep learning offers a promising path toward developing reliable AI. A common metric for this, inspired by Boolean function analysis, is average sensitivity, which captures a model's robustness to single-token perturbations. We argue that average sensitivity has two key limitations: it lacks a natural generalization to real-valued domains and fails to explain the "junta-like" input dependence we empirically observe in modern LLMs. To address these limitations, we propose noise stability as a more comprehensive simplicity metric. Noise stability expresses a model's robustness to correlated noise applied to all input coordinates simultaneously. We provide a theoretical analysis of noise stability for single-layer attention and ReLU MLP layers and tackle the multi-layer propagation problem with a covariance interval propagation approach. Building on this theory, we develop a practical noise stability regularization method. Experiments on algorithmic and next-token-prediction tasks show that our regularizer consistently catalyzes grokking and accelerates training by approximately $35\%$ and $75\%$ respectively. Our results sculpt a new connection between signal propagation in neural networks and interpretability, with noise stability emerging as a powerful tool for understanding and improving modern Transformers.

Modern alignment pipelines are increasingly replacing expensive human preference labels with evaluations from large language models (LLM-as-Judge). However, AI labels can be systematically biased compared to high-quality human feedback datasets. In this paper, we develop two debiased alignment methods within a general framework that accommodates heterogeneous prompt-response distributions and external human feedback sources. Debiased Direct Preference Optimization (DDPO) augments standard DPO with a residual-based correction and density-ratio reweighting to mitigate systematic bias, while retaining DPO's computational efficiency. Debiased Identity Preference Optimization (DIPO) directly estimates human preference probabilities without imposing a parametric reward model. We provide theoretical guarantees for both methods: DDPO offers a practical and computationally efficient solution for large-scale alignment, whereas DIPO serves as a robust, statistically optimal alternative that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound. Empirical studies on sentiment generation, summarization, and single-turn dialogue demonstrate that the proposed methods substantially improve alignment efficiency and recover performance close to that of an oracle trained on fully human-labeled data.

Learning discrete neural samplers is challenging due to the lack of gradients and combinatorial complexity. While stochastic optimal control (SOC) and Schrödinger bridge (SB) provide principled solutions, efficient SOC solvers like adjoint matching (AM), which excel in continuous domains, remain unexplored for discrete spaces. We bridge this gap by revealing that the core mechanism of AM is $\mathit{state}\text{-}\mathit{space~agnostic}$, and introduce $\mathbf{discrete~ASBS}$, a unified framework that extends AM and adjoint Schrödinger bridge sampler (ASBS) to discrete spaces. Theoretically, we analyze the optimality conditions of the discrete SB problem and its connection to SOC, identifying a necessary cyclic group structure on the state space to enable this extension. Empirically, discrete ASBS achieves competitive sample quality with significant advantages in training efficiency and scalability.

We study online linear optimization with matrix variables constrained by the operator norm, a setting where the geometry renders designing data-dependent and efficient adaptive algorithms challenging. The best-known adaptive regret bounds are achieved by Shampoo-like methods, but they require solving a costly quadratic projection subproblem. To address this, we extend the gradient-based prediction scheme to adaptive matrix online learning and cast algorithm design as constructing a family of smoothed potentials for the nuclear norm. We define a notion of admissibility for such smoothings and prove any admissible smoothing yields a regret bound matching the best-known guarantees of one-sided Shampoo. We instantiate this framework with two efficient methods that avoid quadratic projections. The first is an adaptive Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) method using Gaussian stochastic smoothing. The second is Follow-the-Augmented-Matrix-Leader (FAML), which uses a deterministic hyperbolic smoothing in an augmented matrix space. By analyzing the admissibility of these smoothings, we show both methods admit closed-form updates and match one-sided Shampoo's regret up to a constant factor, while significantly reducing computational cost. Lastly, using the online-to-nonconvex conversion, we derive two matrix-based optimizers, Pion (from FTPL) and Leon (from FAML). We prove convergence guarantees for these methods in nonsmooth nonconvex settings, a guarantee that the popular Muon optimizer lacks.

We derive two attention operators from generalized statistical entropies. Kaniadakis entropy yields an exact full-support normalization whose weights and low-score sensitivities decay algebraically, rather than exponentially as in Softmax or by exact truncation as in entmax. Classical Abe entropy yields an implicit reciprocal-symmetric operator. With $q=e^\epsilon$, the involution $q\leftrightarrow q^{-1}$ removes every odd correction about Softmax; we obtain the normalized second- and fourth-order terms, including the deformation of the normalization multiplier. These stationary laws follow from a Fisher-metric Lagrangian on the probability simplex, whose Shannon sector recovers scaled dot-product Softmax. We also give a tangent-gradient test for deciding whether changing the entropy changes the attention profile or only its scale. Rényi and two-parameter Sharma–Mittal entropies retain the Tsallis–entmax inverse-gradient shape, but their global moments make the effective temperature input dependent when the external temperature is fixed. Distinguishing profile-shape equivalence from fixed-parameter operator equivalence separates new normalization shapes from adaptive rescalings and organizes the operators by support, tail behavior, and realization complexity.

The need to rapidly solve PDEs in engineering design workflows has spurred the rise of neural surrogate models. In particular, neural operator models provide a discretization-invariant surrogate by retaining the infinite-dimensional, functional form of their arguments. Despite improved throughput, such methods lack guarantees on accuracy, unlike classical numerical PDE solvers. Optimizing engineering designs under these potentially miscalibrated surrogates thus runs the risk of producing designs that perform poorly upon deployment. In a similar vein, there is growing interest in automated decision-making under black-box predictors in the finite-dimensional setting, where a similar risk of suboptimality exists under poorly calibrated models. For this reason, methods have emerged that produce adversarially robust decisions under uncertainty estimates of the upstream model. One such framework leverages conformal prediction, a distribution-free post-hoc uncertainty quantification method, to provide these estimates due to its natural pairing with black-box predictors. We herein extend this line of conformally robust decision-making to infinite-dimensional function spaces. We first extend the typical conformal prediction guarantees over finite-dimensional spaces to infinite-dimensional Sobolev spaces. We then demonstrate how such uncertainty can be leveraged to robustly formulate engineering design tasks and characterize the suboptimality of the resulting robust optimal designs. We then empirically demonstrate the generality of our functional conformal coverage method across a diverse collection of PDEs, including the Poisson and heat equations, and showcase the significant improvement of such robust design in a quantum state discrimination task.

We develop an improvement to conditional logistic regression (CLR) in the setting where the parameter of interest is the additive effect of binary treatment effect on log-odds of the positive level in the binary response. Our improvement is simply to use information learned above the nuisance control covariates found in the concordant response pairs' observations (which is usually discarded) to create an informative prior on their coefficients. This prior is then used in the CLR which is run on the discordant pairs. Our power improvements over CLR are most notable in small sample sizes and in nonlinear log-odds-of-positive-response models. Our methods are released in an optimized R package called bclogit.

Heatmap-based solvers have emerged as a promising paradigm for Combinatorial Optimization (CO). However, we argue that the dominant Supervised Learning (SL) training paradigm suffers from a fundamental objective mismatch: minimizing imitation loss (e.g., cross-entropy) does not guarantee solution cost minimization. We dissect this mismatch into two deficiencies: Decoder-Blindness (being oblivious to the non-differentiable decoding process) and Cost-Blindness (prioritizing structural imitation over solution quality). We empirically demonstrate that these intrinsic flaws impose a hard performance ceiling. To overcome this limitation, we propose CADO (Cost-Aware Diffusion models for Optimization), a streamlined Reinforcement Learning fine-tuning framework that formulates the diffusion denoising process as an MDP to directly optimize the post-decoded solution cost. We introduce Label-Centered Reward, which repurposes ground-truth labels as unbiased baselines rather than imitation targets, and Hybrid Fine-Tuning for parameter-efficient adaptation. CADO achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse benchmarks, validating that objective alignment is essential for unlocking the full potential of heatmap-based solvers.

With the rapid development of web services, large amounts of time series data are generated and accumulated across various domains such as finance, healthcare, and online platforms. As such data often co-evolves with multiple variables interacting with each other, estimating the time-varying dependencies between variables (i.e., the dynamic network structure) has become crucial for accurate modeling. However, real-world data is often represented as tensor time series with multiple modes, resulting in large, entangled networks that are hard to interpret and computationally intensive to estimate. In this paper, we propose Kronecker Time-Varying Graphical Lasso (KTVGL), a method designed for modeling tensor time series. Our approach estimates mode-specific dynamic networks in a Kronecker product form, thereby avoiding overly complex entangled structures and producing interpretable modeling results. Moreover, the partitioned network structure prevents the exponential growth of computational time with data dimension. In addition, our method can be extended to stream algorithms, making the computational time independent of the sequence length. Experiments on synthetic data show that the proposed method achieves higher edge estimation accuracy than existing methods while requiring less computation time. To further demonstrate its practical value, we also present a case study using real-world data. Our source code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Higashiguchi-Shingo/KTVGL.

Discriminative Random Walks (DRWs) are a simple yet powerful tool for semi-supervised node classification, but their theoretical foundations remain fragmentary. We revisit DRWs through the lens of information geometry, treating the family of class-specific hitting-time laws on an absorbing Markov chain as a statistical manifold. Starting from a log-linear edge-weight model, we derive closed-form expressions for the hitting-time probability mass function, its full moment hierarchy, and the observed Fisher information. The Fisher matrix of each seed node turns out to be rank-one, taking the quotient by its null space yields a low-dimensional, globally flat manifold that captures all identifiable directions of the model. Leveraging the geometry, we introduce a sensitivity score for unlabeled nodes that bounds, and in one-dimensional cases attains, the maximal first-order change in DRW betweenness under unit Fisher perturbations. The score can lead to principled strategies for active label acquisition, edge re-weighting, and explanation.

This paper develops a unified framework for asymptotically minimax robust hypothesis testing under distributional uncertainty, applicable to both Bayesian and Neyman–Pearson formulations (Type-I and Type-II). Uncertainty classes based on the KL-divergence, $\alpha$-divergence, and its symmetrized variant are considered. Using Sion's minimax theorem and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions, the existence and uniqueness of the resulting robust tests are established. The least favorable distributions and corresponding robust likelihood ratio functions are derived in closed parametric forms, enabling computation via systems of nonlinear equations. It is proven that Dabak's approach does not yield an asymptotically minimax robust test. The proposed theory generalizes earlier work by offering a more systematic and comprehensive derivation of robust tests. Numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results and illustrate the behavior of the derived robust tests.

We consider the problem of community detection from the joint observation of a high-dimensional covariate matrix and $L$ sparse networks, all encoding noisy, partial information about the latent community labels of $n$ subjects. In the asymptotic regime where the networks have constant average degree and the number of features $p$ grows proportionally with $n$, we derive a sharp threshold under which detecting and estimating the subject labels is possible. Our results extend the work of \cite{MN23} to the constant-degree regime with noisy measurements, and also resolve a conjecture in \cite{YLS24+} when the number of networks is a constant. Our information-theoretic lower bound is obtained via a novel comparison inequality between Bernoulli and Gaussian moments, as well as a statistical variant of the “recovery to chi-square divergence reduction” argument inspired by \cite{DHSS25}. On the algorithmic side, we design efficient algorithms based on counting decorated cycles and decorated paths and prove that they achieve the sharp threshold for both detection and weak recovery. In particular, our results show that there is no statistical-computational gap in this setting.

Designing modern oncology trials requires synthesizing evidence from prior studies to inform hypothesis generation and sample size determination. Trial designs based on incomplete or imprecise summaries can lead to misspecified hypotheses and underpowered studies, resulting in false positive or negative conclusions. To address this challenge, we developed LEAD-ONC (Literature to Evidence for Analytics and Design in Oncology), an AI-assisted framework that transforms published clinical trial reports into quantitative, design-relevant evidence. Given expert-curated trial publications that meet prespecified eligibility criteria, LEAD-ONC uses large language models to extract baseline characteristics and reconstruct individual patient data from Kaplan-Meier curves, followed by Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate predictive survival distributions for a prespecified target trial population. We demonstrate the framework using five phase III trials in first-line non-small-cell lung cancer evaluating PD-1 or PD-L1 inhibitors with or without CTLA-4 blockade. Clustering based on baseline characteristics identified three clinically interpretable populations defined by histology. For a prospective randomized trial in the mixed-histology population comparing mono versus dual immune checkpoint inhibition, LEAD-ONC projected a modest median overall survival difference of 2.8 months (95 percent credible interval -2.0 to 7.6) and an estimated probability of at least a 3-month benefit of approximately 0.45. As LEAD-ONC remains under active development, these results are intended as preliminary demonstrations of the frameworks potential to support evidence-driven oncology trial design rather than definitive clinical conclusions.

Randomized controlled trials estimate average treatment effects, but treatment response heterogeneity motivates personalized approaches. A critical question is whether statistically detectable heterogeneity translates into improved treatment decisions – these are distinct questions that can yield contradictory answers. We present a modular causal machine learning framework that evaluates each question separately: permutation importance identifies which features predict heterogeneity, best linear predictor (BLP) testing assesses statistical significance, and doubly robust policy evaluation measures whether acting on the heterogeneity improves patient outcomes. We apply this framework to patient-level data from the UNIFI maintenance trial of ustekinumab in ulcerative colitis, comparing placebo, standard-dose ustekinumab every 12 weeks, and dose-intensified ustekinumab every 8 weeks, using cross-fitted X-learner models with baseline demographics, medication history, week-8 clinical scores, laboratory biomarkers, and video-derived endoscopic features. BLP testing identified strong associations between endoscopic features and treatment effect heterogeneity for ustekinumab versus placebo, yet doubly robust policy evaluation showed no improvement in expected remission from incorporating endoscopic features, and out-of-fold multi-arm evaluation showed worse performance. Diagnostic comparison of prognostic contribution against policy value revealed that endoscopic scores behaved as disease severity markers – improving outcome prediction in untreated patients but adding noise to treatment selection – while clinical variables (fecal calprotectin, age, CRP) captured the decision-relevant variation. These results demonstrate that causal machine learning applications to clinical trials should include policy-level evaluation alongside heterogeneity testing.

Bayes' theorem admits an information processing interpretation due to Zellner (1988): under the Shannon information criterion, the posterior is the unique rule that processes prior and data information without information loss. We revisit these ideas from the perspective of information deletion. Given a posterior based on a complete dataset, what distribution should replace it when a subset of the data is removed? For ordinary Bayesian inference, we show that the corresponding information deletion objective is uniquely minimized by the leave-data-out posterior. We then extend the framework beyond likelihood-based inference from Bayes to the generalized Bayesian updating of Bissiri et al.(2016} based on loss functions. Requiring deletion to be coherent under sequential removal of loss contributions yields a deletion rule that exactly recovers the generalized posterior based only on the retained information. We further develop an axiomatic theory, beyond probabilistic inference, for possibilistic deletion and show that the same information-deletion perspective leads to a principled rule for exact possibilistic unlearning. Finally, restricting these exact deletion principles to tractable families leads naturally to variational Bayesian, generalized Bayesian, and maxitive possibilistic unlearning.

Persistent entropy is a scalar summary of persistence barcodes widely used to detect regime changes, yet there is no account of when a structural change in a barcode must produce a detectable change in entropy. We establish a model-agnostic theorem supplying such conditions. Treating persistence diagrams as random objects indexed by a control parameter, we identify a dispersion-condensation mechanism in the normalized persistence weights and derive an explicit lower bound on the entropy difference between the two regimes, valid with high probability at finite sample size and insensitive to the absolute scale of bar lifetimes. We also give a procedure for verifying the hypotheses on empirical barcodes. Applied to convolutional networks, the criterion shows that the circular organization of learned filters reported by Gabrielsson and Carlsson emerges through a sharp topological phase transition, and locates its onset: within a few hundred iterations on MNIST, but an order of magnitude later on CIFAR-10. The same criterion detects the Kuramoto synchronization and Vicsek order-disorder transitions.

We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice for “easy” sequences. We show that a variant of NormalHedge enjoys a second-order $\epsilon$-quantile regret bound of $O\big(\sqrt{V_T \log(V_T/\epsilon)}\big) $ when $V_T > \log N$, where $V_T$ is the cumulative second moment of instantaneous per-expert regret averaged with respect to a natural distribution determined by the algorithm. The algorithm is motivated by a continuous time limit using Stochastic Differential Equations. The discrete time analysis uses self-concordance techniques.

Machine learning applications require fast and reliable per-sample uncertainty estimation. A common approach is to use predictive distributions from Bayesian or approximation methods and additively decompose uncertainty into aleatoric (i.e., data-related) and epistemic (i.e., model-related) components. However, additive decomposition has recently been questioned, with evidence that it breaks down when using finite-ensemble sampling and/or mismatched predictive distributions. This paper introduces Variance-Gated Ensembles (VGE), an intuitive, differentiable framework that injects epistemic sensitivity via a signal-to-noise gate computed from ensemble statistics. VGE provides: (i) a Variance-Gated Margin Uncertainty (VGMU) score that couples decision margins with ensemble predictive variance; and (ii) a Variance-Gated Normalization (VGN) layer that generalizes the variance-gated uncertainty mechanism to training via per-class, learnable normalization of ensemble member probabilities. We derive closed-form vector-Jacobian products enabling end-to-end training through ensemble sample mean and variance. VGE matches or exceeds state-of-the-art information-theoretic baselines while remaining computationally efficient. As a result, VGE provides a practical and scalable approach to epistemic-aware uncertainty estimation in ensemble models.

We study the estimation of repeatedly nested expectations (RNEs) with a constant horizon (number of nestings) using quantum computing. We propose a quantum algorithm that achieves $\varepsilon$-error with cost $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-1})$, up to logarithmic factors. Standard lower bounds show this scaling is essentially optimal, yielding an almost quadratic speedup over the best classical algorithm. Our results extend prior quantum speedups for single nested expectations to repeated nesting, and therefore cover a broader range of applications, including optimal stopping. This extension requires a new derandomized variant of the classical randomized Multilevel Monte Carlo (rMLMC) algorithm. Careful de-randomization is key to overcoming a variable-time issue that typically increases quantized versions of classical randomized algorithms.

We develop a systematic, omnibus approach to goodness-of-fit testing for parametric distributional models when the variable of interest is only partially observed due to censoring and/or truncation. In many such designs, tests based on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator are hindered by nonexistence, computational instability, or convergence rates too slow to support reliable calibration under composite nulls. We avoid these difficulties by constructing a regular (pathwise differentiable) Neyman-orthogonal score process indexed by test functions, and aggregating it over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space ball. This yields a maximum-mean-discrepancy-type supremum statistic with a convenient quadratic-form representation. Critical values are obtained via a multiplier bootstrap that keeps nuisance estimates fixed. We establish asymptotic validity under the null and local alternatives and provide concrete constructions for left-truncated right-censored data, current status data, and random double truncation; in particular, to the best of our knowledge, we give the first omnibus goodness-of-fit test for a parametric family under random double truncation in the composite-hypothesis case. Simulations and an empirical illustration demonstrate size control and power in practically relevant incomplete-data designs.

Estimating the dimensionality of the latent representation needed for prediction – the task-relevant dimension – is a difficult, largely unsolved problem with broad scientific applications. We cast it as an Information Bottleneck question: what embedding bottleneck dimension is sufficient to compress predictor and predicted views while preserving their mutual information (MI). This repurposes neural MI estimators for dimensionality estimation. We show that standard neural estimators with separable/bilinear critics systematically inflate the inferred dimension, and we address this by introducing a hybrid critic that retains an explicit dimensional bottleneck while allowing flexible nonlinear cross-view interactions, thereby preserving the latent geometry. We further propose a one-shot protocol that reads off the effective dimension from a single over-parameterized hybrid model, without sweeping over bottleneck sizes. We validate the approach on synthetic problems with known task-relevant dimension. We extend the approach to intrinsic dimensionality by constructing paired views of a single dataset, enabling comparison with classical geometric dimension estimators. In noisy regimes where those estimators degrade, our approach remains reliable. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the method on multiple physics datasets.

Inference on the conditional mean function (CMF) is central to tasks from adaptive experimentation to optimal treatment assignment and algorithmic fairness auditing. In this work, we provide a novel asymptotic anytime-valid test for a CMF global null (e.g., that all conditional means are zero) and contrasts between CMFs, enabling experimenters to make high confidence decisions at any time during the experiment beyond a minimum sample size. We provide mild conditions under which our tests achieve (i) asymptotic type-I error guarantees, (i) power one, and, unlike past tests, (iii) optimal sample complexity relative to a Gaussian location testing. By inverting our tests, we show how to construct function-valued asymptotic confidence sequences for the CMF and contrasts thereof. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show our method is well-powered across various distributions while preserving the nominal error rate under continuous monitoring.

Traditional tennis rating systems (e.g., Elo) summarize overall player strength but do not isolate the independent value of serving. Using point-by-point data from Wimbledon and the U.S.\ Open, we develop serve-specific player metrics that separate serving quality from return ability and other latent factors. For each tournament and gender, we fit logistic mixed-effects models of point outcomes using serve speed, speed variability, and placement features, with crossed server and returner random intercepts to capture unobserved player strengths. From these models we derive Server Quality Scores (SQS): partially pooled, opponent-adjusted estimates of players' serving impact. In out-of-sample evaluation, SQS aligns more strongly with serve efficiency$\unicode{x2014}$the probability of winning points within three shots$\unicode{x2014}$than weighted Elo. We further benchmark SQS against task-aligned serve-stat baselines and model ablations, quantifying the incremental value of serve features and partial pooling. Associations with overall serve win percentage are smaller and dataset-dependent, and neither SQS nor weighted Elo consistently dominates that outcome. Overall, SQS is best interpreted as a measure of serve-induced short-point advantage (serve quality plus early-point conversion), complementing holistic ratings with actionable insight for coaching, forecasting, and player evaluation.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) addresses the critical challenge of training accurate models when labeled data is scarce but unlabeled data is abundant. Graph-based SSL (GSSL) has emerged as a popular framework that captures data structure through graph representations. Classic graph SSL methods, such as Label Propagation and Label Spreading, aim to compute low-dimensional representations where points with the same labels are close in representation space. Although often effective, these methods can be suboptimal on data with complex label distributions. In our work, we develop AUC-spec, a graph approach that computes a low-dimensional representation that maximizes class separation. We compute this representation by optimizing the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) as estimated via the labeled points. We provide a detailed analysis of our approach under a product-of-manifold model, and show that the required number of labeled points for AUC-spec is polynomial in the model parameters. Empirically, we show that AUC-spec balances class separation with graph smoothness. It demonstrates competitive results on synthetic and real-world datasets while maintaining computational efficiency comparable to the field's classic and state-of-the-art methods.

We analyse linear ensemble sampling (ES) with standard Gaussian perturbations in stochastic linear bandits. We show that for ensemble size $m=\Theta(d\log n)$, ES attains $\tilde O(d^{3/2}\sqrt n)$ high-probability regret, closing the gap to the Thompson sampling benchmark while keeping computation comparable. The proof brings a new perspective on randomized exploration in linear bandits by reducing the analysis to a time-uniform exceedance problem for $m$ independent Brownian motions. This continuous-time lens appears particularly natural here: it yields an exact representation of the relevant discrete-time processes, and we do not know another route to a sharp ES bound.

Large language models (LLMs) are often ensembled together to improve overall reliability and robustness, but in practice models are strongly correlated. This raises a fundamental question: which models should be selected when forming an LLM ensemble? We formulate budgeted ensemble selection as maximizing the mutual information between the true label and predictions of the selected models. Furthermore, to explain why performance can saturate even with many models, we model the correlated errors of the models using Gaussian-copula and show an information-theoretic error floor for the performance of the ensemble. Motivated by these, we propose a simple greedy mutual-information selection algorithm that estimates the required information terms directly from data and iteratively builds an ensemble under a query budget. We test our approach in two question answering datasets and one binary sentiment classification dataset: MEDMCQA, MMLU, and IMDB movie reviews. Across all datasets, we observe that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines under the same query budget.